Using mutual funds and ETFs for short-term savings (1 year)

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In investing, we make personal choices about how much risk we are willing to take if we think we can get higher return in exchange. Using mutual funds and ETFs for short-term savings (1 year) compares historical performance of similar funds that are appropriate for short-term savings.[Note 1]

Volatility--fluctuations in value--are an important aspect of risk. In financial economics, volatility is often measured by a statistical value called the standard deviation, represented by the Greek letter sigma (σ). The standard deviation of mutual funds can be found on sites like Morningstar or PortfolioVisualizer. However, it is hard to relate this number to a practical question, like "how much risk would I be taking by putting money I need a year from now into a short-term bond fund instead of a money market fund?" This article tries to help with this kind of question.

Overview

In this article, we calculate some other measures of risk by calculating what would have happened to an investment of $10,000, held for short periods of time, in a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF). You might do this in hope of making more than you would have made in a money market mutual fund, and accepting the possibility of sometimes making less.[Note 2] The possibility of making less is depicted in two ways:

1) What percentage of the time would you have made less than in a money market fund? We chose VMMXX, the Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund, because it is one of the oldest money market fund and gave us a long period of comparison. We also show what percentage of the time you would have actually lost money--ended up with less than $10,000 at the end of the time period--and what percentage of time you would have failed to keep up with inflation.

2) It's important to know not just when a fund or ETF underperformed a money market mutual fund, but by how much. In the case of short-term funds, the losses, when they did occur, were so small that some might call them negligible To quantify this, we present two numbers. One is the average loss that occurred in those periods in which losses did occur; and the other is the largest loss that ever occurred within the body of data that was used.

Notice that a high probability of underperforming may not be important at all. If two investments have the same return and volatility, but just fluctuate randomly with respect to each other, you would expect each of them to underperform the other about 50% of the time.

We have chosen to present data going back for as far as Morningstar has data. As a result, there are two caveats. First, the data range shown for each fund is different and results for different funds cannot be directly compared. For example, the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Fund, VFISX, beat VMMXX by an average of $117.10 while the Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index fund, VGSH, only beat it by $33.17. But this is almost entirely due to VGSH's inception in 2009 versus VFISX's inception in 1991. If we restrict our view of VFISX to the same years as VGSH, the benefit for VFISX was only $44.05. Second, this underlines the problem with all historical data, which is that the present time--and thus the short-term future--may be quite different from the historical averages.

Median and average (mean)

We show both the average and the median for some key values. A reader requested this. We have a scattered group of value: the return from an investment over many different periods of time. To represent the center of such a group with a single number, we often calculate and average or mean. In the here, when we are looking, for example, at losses, and only seeing "the tail of the distribution," the average may give the wrong impression because it's influenced by extreme values. The median is another measure, and represent the value that is halfway based on counting. If the median loss of an investment is $600, it means you had a 50% chance of losing more over $600 and a 50% chance of losing less than $600.

Holding stocks "for five years"

Authorities advice against using stocks for money you will need in less than five years; Vanguard says ten. If you are considering using stocks for money you will need in five years, then you should familiarize yourself with the data for stocks held for five years. See Using mutual funds and ETFs for short-term savings (5 years).

Vanguard itself puts all of it stock funds in risk categories 4 and 5 and says "these funds may be appropriate for investors who have a long-term investment horizon (10 years or longer)."

A few other authorities say:

"Do not invest any money in stocks you will need in less than five years.”—William J. Bernstein, The Four Pillars of Investing.

“A rule of thumb in investing is that you should not invest money in stocks or stock funds that you will need in less than five years.”—Jack Brennan and Marta McCave, “Straight Talk on Investing.”

“Owning stocks for the short term (less than five years) is foolish.”—Kiplinger’s Personal Finance, Nov, 2004.

“Money you know you will need in the five to 10 years does not belong in stocks.”—Suze Orman, Suze Orman’s Action Plan.

Even Jim Cramer has said “If you need the money for something serious in the next four years, you cannot risk keeping it in stocks.”--Jim Cramer, Getting Back to Even.

In investing, we make personal choices about how much risk we are willing to take if we think we can get higher return in exchange. Using mutual funds and ETFs for short-term savings (1 year) compares historical performance of similar funds that are appropriate for short-term savings.[Note 3]

Volatility--fluctuations in value--are an important aspect of risk. In financial economics, volatility is often measured by a statistical value called the standard deviation, represented by the Greek letter sigma (σ). The standard deviation of mutual funds can be found on sites like Morningstar or PortfolioVisualizer. However, it is hard to relate this number to a practical question, like "how much risk would I be taking by putting money I need a year from now into a short-term bond fund instead of a money market fund?" This article tries to help with this kind of question.

Money market

BTFXX: BlackRock Liquidity

BTFXX: BlackRock Liquidity
7/1989 - 11/2019; 365 months total
(limited by start of available data for BTFXX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 354
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $213.79 (average), +$65.02 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 354 12-month periods 2.14%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.72%
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which BTFXX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 331 periods
331/354 = 93.5%
-$90.73 (average), -$35.21 (median)
Number of periods in which BTFXX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 143 periods
143/354 = 40.4%
$0.00 (average), $0.00 (median)
Number of periods in which BTFXX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 193 periods
193/354 = 54.5%
-$206.49 (average), -$183.83 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 9/2006 - 8/2007 -$523.01
Dollar loss, 12/2014 - 11/2015 $0.00
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 8/2007 - 7/2008 -$560.01
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX BTFXX vs VMMXX, 9/2006 - 8/2007
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 354 overlapping 12-month periods -$83.79 (average), -$26.73 (median)

SWPXX: Schwab Government Money Market Portfolio™

SWPXX: Schwab Government Money Market Portfolio™
7/1994 - 11/2019; 305 months total
(limited by start of available data for SWPXX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 294
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $225.64 (average), +$142.69 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 294 12-month periods 2.26%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.62%
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which SWPXX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 286 periods
286/294 = 97.3%
-$29.17 (average), -$31.19 (median)
Number of periods in which SWPXX lost money 0/294 = 0.0%
Number of periods in which SWPXX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 160 periods
160/294 = 54.4%
-$158.15 (average), -$159.38 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 6/2008 - 5/2009 -$77.94
Dollar loss, 12/2011 - 11/2012 +$0.94
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 10/2010 - 9/2011 -$385.84
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX SWPXX vs VMMXX, 6/2008 - 5/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 294 overlapping 12-month periods -$28.38 (average), -$30.50 (median)

SWRXX: Schwab Investor Money

SWRXX: Schwab Investor Money
5/1994 - 11/2019; 307 months total
(limited by start of available data for SWRXX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 296
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $229.97 (average), +$161.70 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 296 12-month periods 2.30%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.62%
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which SWRXX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 288 periods
288/296 = 97.3%
-$26.49 (average), -$29.04 (median)
Number of periods in which SWRXX lost money 0/296 = 0.0%
Number of periods in which SWRXX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 155 periods
155/296 = 52.4%
-$161.34 (average), -$150.85 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 10/2008 - 9/2009 -$59.07
Dollar loss, 4/2015 - 3/2016 +$0.99
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 10/2010 - 9/2011 -$385.85
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX SWRXX vs VMMXX, 10/2008 - 9/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 296 overlapping 12-month periods -$25.77 (average), -$28.59 (median)

SWVXX: Schwab Value Advantage Money

SWVXX: Schwab Value Advantage Money
6/1992 - 11/2019; 330 months total
(limited by start of available data for SWVXX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 319
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $253.96 (average), +$212.96 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 319 12-month periods 2.54%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.63%
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which SWVXX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 265 periods
265/319 = 83.1%
-$9.87 (average), -$7.16 (median)
Number of periods in which SWVXX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 1 periods
1/319 = 0.3%
$0.00 (average), $0.00 (median)
Number of periods in which SWVXX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 155 periods
155/319 = 48.6%
-$151.71 (average), -$146.32 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 10/2008 - 9/2009 -$47.27
Dollar loss, 8/2009 - 7/2010 -$0.05
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 10/2010 - 9/2011 -$385.83
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX SWVXX vs VMMXX, 10/2008 - 9/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 319 overlapping 12-month periods -$7.97 (average), -$5.25 (median)

TSCXX: T. Rowe Price Cash Reserves

TSCXX: T. Rowe Price Cash Reserves
12/1993 - 11/2019; 312 months total
(limited by start of available data for TSCXX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 301
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $246.96 (average), +$179.75 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 301 12-month periods 2.47%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.64%
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which TSCXX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 280 periods
280/301 = 93.0%
-$12.76 (average), -$10.75 (median)
Number of periods in which TSCXX lost money 0/301 = 0.0%
Number of periods in which TSCXX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 156 periods
156/301 = 51.8%
-$153.62 (average), -$148.68 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 3/2016 - 2/2017 -$37.36
Dollar loss, 10/2009 - 9/2010 +$0.83
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 10/2010 - 9/2011 -$385.84
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX TSCXX vs VMMXX, 3/2016 - 2/2017
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 301 overlapping 12-month periods -$11.71 (average), -$10.09 (median)

VUSXX: Vanguard Treasury Money Market

VUSXX: Vanguard Treasury Money Market
2/1993 - 11/2019; 322 months total
(limited by start of available data for VUSXX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 311
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $247.90 (average), +$199.63 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 311 12-month periods 2.48%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.61%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VUSXX VUSXX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 1
(conservative)
Vanguard funds are classified as conservative if their share prices are expected to remain stable or to fluctuate only slightly. Such funds may be appropriate for the short-term reserves portion of a long-term investment portfolio or for investors with short-term investment horizons (3 years or less).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VUSXX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 259 periods
259/311 = 83.3%
-$16.46 (average), -$13.65 (median)
Number of periods in which VUSXX lost money 0/311 = 0.0%
Number of periods in which VUSXX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 154 periods
154/311 = 49.5%
-$150.49 (average), -$144.19 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$70.89
Dollar loss, 9/2014 - 8/2015 +$0.93
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 10/2010 - 9/2011 -$385.31
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VUSXX vs VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 311 overlapping 12-month periods -$12.82 (average), -$9.68 (median)

VMMXX: Vanguard Prime Money Market

VMMXX: Vanguard Prime Money Market
8/1975 - 11/2019; 532 months total
(limited by start of available data for VMMXX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 521
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $498.00 (average), +$503.62 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 521 12-month periods 4.98%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 1.11%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VMMXX VMMXX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 1
(conservative)
Vanguard funds are classified as conservative if their share prices are expected to remain stable or to fluctuate only slightly. Such funds may be appropriate for the short-term reserves portion of a long-term investment portfolio or for investors with short-term investment horizons (3 years or less).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VMMXX lost money 0/521 = 0.0%
Number of periods in which VMMXX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 195 periods
195/521 = 37.4%
-$153.96 (average), -$155.87 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Dollar loss, 4/2014 - 3/2015 +$0.96
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 10/2010 - 9/2011 -$381.34

VMFXX: Vanguard Federal Money Market

VMFXX: Vanguard Federal Money Market
9/1981 - 11/2019; 459 months total
(limited by start of available data for VMFXX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 448
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $404.64 (average), +$429.02 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 448 12-month periods 4.05%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.93%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VMFXX VMFXX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 1
(conservative)
Vanguard funds are classified as conservative if their share prices are expected to remain stable or to fluctuate only slightly. Such funds may be appropriate for the short-term reserves portion of a long-term investment portfolio or for investors with short-term investment horizons (3 years or less).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VMFXX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 425 periods
425/448 = 94.9%
-$14.77 (average), -$7.06 (median)
Number of periods in which VMFXX lost money 0/448 = 0.0%
Number of periods in which VMFXX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 153 periods
153/448 = 34.2%
-$150.62 (average), -$145.22 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 9/1981 - 8/1982 -$120.91
Dollar loss, 11/2011 - 10/2012 +$0.93
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 10/2010 - 9/2011 -$385.48
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VMFXX vs VMMXX, 9/1981 - 8/1982
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 448 overlapping 12-month periods -$13.86 (average), -$6.78 (median)

Very short-term

BIL: SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill

BIL: SPDR® Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill
7/2007 - 11/2019; 149 months total
(limited by start of available data for BIL, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 138
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $46.14 (average), +$0.97 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 138 12-month periods 0.46%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.33%
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which BIL made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 138 periods
138/138 = 100.0%
-$27.11 (average), -$15.76 (median)
Number of periods in which BIL lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 63 periods
63/138 = 45.7%
-$6.69 (average), -$6.87 (median)
Number of periods in which BIL failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 114 periods
114/138 = 82.6%
-$167.62 (average), -$158.85 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 2/2008 - 1/2009 -$116.79
Dollar loss, 11/2014 - 10/2015 -$12.62
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 10/2010 - 9/2011 -$388.89
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX BIL vs VMMXX, 2/2008 - 1/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 138 overlapping 12-month periods -$27.11 (average), -$15.76 (median)

FLOT: iShares Floating Rate Bond

FLOT: iShares Floating Rate Bond
8/2011 - 11/2019; 100 months total
(limited by start of available data for FLOT, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 89
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $152.01 (average), +$167.66 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 89 12-month periods 1.52%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.78%
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which FLOT made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 9 periods
9/89 = 10.1%
-$13.18 (average), -$5.64 (median)
Number of periods in which FLOT lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 4 periods
4/89 = 4.5%
-$12.40 (average), -$11.80 (median)
Number of periods in which FLOT failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 56 periods
56/89 = 62.9%
-$54.30 (average), -$46.81 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 1/2018 - 12/2018 -$38.76
Dollar loss, 10/2014 - 9/2015 -$24.93
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 6/2013 - 5/2014 -$140.12
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX FLOT vs VMMXX, 1/2018 - 12/2018
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 89 overlapping 12-month periods +$89.06 (average), +$70.68 (median)

FTSM: First Trust Enhanced Short Maturity

FTSM: First Trust Enhanced Short Maturity
10/2014 - 11/2019; 62 months total
(limited by start of available data for FTSM, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 51
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $143.77 (average), +$148.22 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 51 12-month periods 1.44%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.30%
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which FTSM made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 1 periods
1/51 = 2.0%
$0.00 (average), $0.00 (median)
Number of periods in which FTSM lost money 0/51 = 0.0%
Number of periods in which FTSM failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 38 periods
38/51 = 74.5%
-$68.09 (average), -$66.00 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 1/2018 - 12/2018 -$10.24
Dollar loss, 3/2015 - 2/2016 +$21.70
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 3/2016 - 2/2017 -$147.00
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX FTSM vs VMMXX, 1/2018 - 12/2018
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 51 overlapping 12-month periods +$35.50 (average), +$32.36 (median)

FULIX: Federated Ultrashort Bond

FULIX: Federated Ultrashort Bond
7/1997 - 11/2019; 269 months total
(limited by start of available data for FULIX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 258
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $297.26 (average), +$223.60 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 258 12-month periods 2.97%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 1.23%
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which FULIX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 49 periods
49/258 = 19.0%
-$177.32 (average), -$74.51 (median)
Number of periods in which FULIX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 9 periods
9/258 = 3.5%
-$227.86 (average), -$276.78 (median)
Number of periods in which FULIX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 127 periods
127/258 = 49.2%
-$116.12 (average), -$73.88 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 12/2007 - 11/2008 -$689.73
Dollar loss, 12/2007 - 11/2008 -$392.97
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 11/2007 - 10/2008 -$659.91
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX FULIX vs VMMXX, 12/2007 - 11/2008
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 258 overlapping 12-month periods +$84.14 (average), +$73.89 (median)

GSY: Invesco Ultra Short Duration

GSY: Invesco Ultra Short Duration
4/2008 - 11/2019; 140 months total
(limited by start of available data for GSY, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 129
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $120.59 (average), +$116.63 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 129 12-month periods 1.21%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.38%
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which GSY made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 32 periods
32/129 = 24.8%
-$29.00 (average), -$11.32 (median)
Number of periods in which GSY lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 9 periods
9/129 = 7.0%
-$6.55 (average), -$4.42 (median)
Number of periods in which GSY failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 79 periods
79/129 = 61.2%
-$118.06 (average), -$77.62 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 4/2008 - 3/2009 -$96.37
Dollar loss, 10/2010 - 9/2011 -$19.69
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 10/2010 - 9/2011 -$406.52
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX GSY vs VMMXX, 4/2008 - 3/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 129 overlapping 12-month periods +$64.46 (average), +$77.83 (median)

MINT: PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active

MINT: PIMCO Enhanced Short Maturity Active
1/2010 - 11/2019; 119 months total
(limited by start of available data for MINT, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 108
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $143.44 (average), +$156.68 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 108 12-month periods 1.43%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.47%
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which MINT made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 2 periods
2/108 = 1.9%
-$14.02 (average), -$14.02 (median)
Number of periods in which MINT lost money 0/108 = 0.0%
Number of periods in which MINT failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 67 periods
67/108 = 62.0%
-$86.14 (average), -$70.94 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 1/2018 - 12/2018 -$23.36
Dollar loss, 10/2014 - 9/2015 +$22.14
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 10/2010 - 9/2011 -$334.48
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX MINT vs VMMXX, 1/2018 - 12/2018
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 108 overlapping 12-month periods +$90.59 (average), +$77.28 (median)

NEAR: iShares Short Maturity Bond

NEAR: iShares Short Maturity Bond
11/2013 - 11/2019; 73 months total
(limited by start of available data for NEAR, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 62
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $147.41 (average), +$147.35 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 62 12-month periods 1.47%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.34%
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which NEAR made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 2 periods
2/62 = 3.2%
-$18.04 (average), -$18.04 (median)
Number of periods in which NEAR lost money 0/62 = 0.0%
Number of periods in which NEAR failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 37 periods
37/62 = 59.7%
-$58.87 (average), -$51.99 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 1/2018 - 12/2018 -$24.16
Dollar loss, 7/2014 - 6/2015 +$53.57
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 8/2017 - 7/2018 -$131.60
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX NEAR vs VMMXX, 1/2018 - 12/2018
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 62 overlapping 12-month periods +$58.15 (average), +$62.38 (median)

SHV: iShares Short Treasury Bond

SHV: iShares Short Treasury Bond
3/2007 - 11/2019; 153 months total
(limited by start of available data for SHV, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 142
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $77.13 (average), +$16.22 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 142 12-month periods 0.77%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.46%
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which SHV made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 78 periods
78/142 = 54.9%
-$17.21 (average), -$10.52 (median)
Number of periods in which SHV lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 6 periods
6/142 = 4.2%
-$0.68 (average), -$0.49 (median)
Number of periods in which SHV failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 109 periods
109/142 = 76.8%
-$160.64 (average), -$150.73 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 4/2008 - 3/2009 -$55.21
Dollar loss, 9/2011 - 8/2012 -$1.49
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 10/2010 - 9/2011 -$376.90
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX SHV vs VMMXX, 4/2008 - 3/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 142 overlapping 12-month periods -$7.29 (average), -$0.78 (median)

SHY: iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond

SHY: iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond
9/2002 - 11/2019; 207 months total
(limited by start of available data for SHY, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 196
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $194.05 (average), +$117.52 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 196 12-month periods 1.94%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 1.29%
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which SHY made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 60 periods
60/196 = 30.6%
-$98.43 (average), -$92.87 (median)
Number of periods in which SHY lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 12 periods
12/196 = 6.1%
-$24.41 (average), -$20.48 (median)
Number of periods in which SHY failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 120 periods
120/196 = 61.2%
-$159.88 (average), -$153.10 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 7/2005 - 6/2006 -$237.14
Dollar loss, 4/2004 - 3/2005 -$52.71
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 10/2004 - 9/2005 -$388.31
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX SHY vs VMMXX, 7/2005 - 6/2006
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 196 overlapping 12-month periods +$53.17 (average), +$46.85 (median)

VUBFX: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond

VUBFX: Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond
4/2015 - 11/2019; 56 months total
(limited by start of available data for VUBFX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 45
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $164.78 (average), +$123.34 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 45 12-month periods 1.65%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.44%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VUBFX VUBFX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 1
(conservative)
Vanguard funds are classified as conservative if their share prices are expected to remain stable or to fluctuate only slightly. Such funds may be appropriate for the short-term reserves portion of a long-term investment portfolio or for investors with short-term investment horizons (3 years or less).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VUBFX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 11 periods
11/45 = 24.4%
-$14.68 (average), -$17.19 (median)
Number of periods in which VUBFX lost money 0/45 = 0.0%
Number of periods in which VUBFX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 30 periods
30/45 = 66.7%
-$93.18 (average), -$88.66 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 9/2017 - 8/2018 -$25.73
Dollar loss, 4/2015 - 3/2016 +$64.24
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 8/2017 - 7/2018 -$165.89
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VUBFX vs VMMXX, 9/2017 - 8/2018
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 45 overlapping 12-month periods +$42.75 (average), +$47.28 (median)

VMLTX: Vanguard Limited-Term Tax-Exempt

VMLTX: Vanguard Limited-Term Tax-Exempt
10/1987 - 11/2019; 386 months total
(limited by start of available data for VMLTX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 375
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $393.10 (average), +$381.58 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 375 12-month periods 3.93%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 1.84%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VMLTX VMLTX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 1
(conservative)
Vanguard funds are classified as conservative if their share prices are expected to remain stable or to fluctuate only slightly. Such funds may be appropriate for the short-term reserves portion of a long-term investment portfolio or for investors with short-term investment horizons (3 years or less).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VMLTX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 144 periods
144/375 = 38.4%
-$145.49 (average), -$129.31 (median)
Number of periods in which VMLTX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 8 periods
8/375 = 2.1%
-$14.89 (average), -$11.72 (median)
Number of periods in which VMLTX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 110 periods
110/375 = 29.3%
-$142.83 (average), -$137.38 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 2/1999 - 1/2000 -$443.89
Dollar loss, 12/2015 - 11/2016 -$34.62
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 11/2004 - 10/2005 -$364.10
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VMLTX vs VMMXX, 2/1999 - 1/2000
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 375 overlapping 12-month periods +$63.87 (average), +$53.53 (median)

Short-term

VFIIX: Vanguard GNMA

VFIIX: Vanguard GNMA
8/1980 - 11/2019; 472 months total
(limited by start of available data for VFIIX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 461
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $760.66 (average), +$673.60 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 461 12-month periods 7.61%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 4.89%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VFIIX VFIIX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 2
(conservative to moderate)
Vanguard funds classified as conservative to moderate are subject to low to moderate fluctuations in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors with medium-term investment horizons (4 to 10 years).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VFIIX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 109 periods
109/461 = 23.6%
-$304.08 (average), -$195.84 (median)
Number of periods in which VFIIX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 33 periods
33/461 = 7.2%
-$125.91 (average), -$89.60 (median)
Number of periods in which VFIIX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 92 periods
92/461 = 20.0%
-$260.46 (average), -$212.85 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 9/1980 - 8/1981 -$2216.48
Dollar loss, 9/1980 - 8/1981 -$605.85
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 9/1980 - 8/1981 -$1686.28
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VFIIX vs VMMXX, 9/1980 - 8/1981
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 461 overlapping 12-month periods +$307.78 (average), +$302.89 (median)

VFISX: Vanguard Short-Term Treasury

VFISX: Vanguard Short-Term Treasury
12/1991 - 11/2019; 336 months total
(limited by start of available data for VFISX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 325
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $382.35 (average), +$304.19 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 325 12-month periods 3.82%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 1.95%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VFISX VFISX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 1
(conservative)
Vanguard funds are classified as conservative if their share prices are expected to remain stable or to fluctuate only slightly. Such funds may be appropriate for the short-term reserves portion of a long-term investment portfolio or for investors with short-term investment horizons (3 years or less).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VFISX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 97 periods
97/325 = 29.8%
-$131.29 (average), -$109.94 (median)
Number of periods in which VFISX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 19 periods
19/325 = 5.8%
-$32.68 (average), -$31.99 (median)
Number of periods in which VFISX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 132 periods
132/325 = 40.6%
-$150.49 (average), -$140.03 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 1/1994 - 12/1994 -$456.03
Dollar loss, 5/2017 - 4/2018 -$69.26
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 11/2004 - 10/2005 -$369.35
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VFISX vs VMMXX, 1/1994 - 12/1994
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 325 overlapping 12-month periods +$118.64 (average), +$91.78 (median)

VFITX: Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury

VFITX: Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury
12/1991 - 11/2019; 336 months total
(limited by start of available data for VFITX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 325
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $553.24 (average), +$490.49 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 325 12-month periods 5.53%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 4.73%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VFITX VFITX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 2
(conservative to moderate)
Vanguard funds classified as conservative to moderate are subject to low to moderate fluctuations in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors with medium-term investment horizons (4 to 10 years).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VFITX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 95 periods
95/325 = 29.2%
-$298.08 (average), -$231.94 (median)
Number of periods in which VFITX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 56 periods
56/325 = 17.2%
-$192.03 (average), -$178.95 (median)
Number of periods in which VFITX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 90 periods
90/325 = 27.7%
-$321.44 (average), -$315.29 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 2/1999 - 1/2000 -$966.09
Dollar loss, 11/1993 - 10/1994 -$529.38
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 10/1993 - 9/1994 -$791.88
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VFITX vs VMMXX, 2/1999 - 1/2000
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 325 overlapping 12-month periods +$289.52 (average), +$288.78 (median)

VGSH: Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index Fund

VGSH: Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index Fund
1/2010 - 11/2019; 119 months total
(limited by start of available data for VGSH, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 108
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $93.50 (average), +$64.73 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 108 12-month periods 0.93%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.81%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VGSH VGSH
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 1
(conservative)
Vanguard funds are classified as conservative if their share prices are expected to remain stable or to fluctuate only slightly. Such funds may be appropriate for the short-term reserves portion of a long-term investment portfolio or for investors with short-term investment horizons (3 years or less).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VGSH made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 24 periods
24/108 = 22.2%
-$95.95 (average), -$81.72 (median)
Number of periods in which VGSH lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 10 periods
10/108 = 9.3%
-$16.51 (average), -$15.60 (median)
Number of periods in which VGSH failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 82 periods
82/108 = 75.9%
-$146.47 (average), -$142.62 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 8/2017 - 7/2018 -$180.27
Dollar loss, 5/2017 - 4/2018 -$39.96
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 8/2017 - 7/2018 -$324.01
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VGSH vs VMMXX, 8/2017 - 7/2018
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 108 overlapping 12-month periods +$40.65 (average), +$48.38 (median)

VBISX: Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index

VBISX: Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index
5/1994 - 11/2019; 307 months total
(limited by start of available data for VBISX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 296
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $413.71 (average), +$380.34 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 296 12-month periods 4.14%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 2.04%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VBISX VBISX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 1
(conservative)
Vanguard funds are classified as conservative if their share prices are expected to remain stable or to fluctuate only slightly. Such funds may be appropriate for the short-term reserves portion of a long-term investment portfolio or for investors with short-term investment horizons (3 years or less).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VBISX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 67 periods
67/296 = 22.6%
-$128.70 (average), -$122.27 (median)
Number of periods in which VBISX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 11 periods
11/296 = 3.7%
-$41.49 (average), -$43.48 (median)
Number of periods in which VBISX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 92 periods
92/296 = 31.1%
-$149.68 (average), -$141.21 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 2/1999 - 1/2000 -$356.95
Dollar loss, 8/2017 - 7/2018 -$66.54
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 11/2004 - 10/2005 -$413.11
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VBISX vs VMMXX, 2/1999 - 1/2000
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 296 overlapping 12-month periods +$157.96 (average), +$148.19 (median)

VSBSX: Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index

VSBSX: Vanguard Short-Term Treasury Index
1/2010 - 11/2019; 119 months total
(limited by start of available data for VSBSX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 108
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $92.93 (average), +$64.25 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 108 12-month periods 0.93%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 0.82%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VSBSX VSBSX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 1
(conservative)
Vanguard funds are classified as conservative if their share prices are expected to remain stable or to fluctuate only slightly. Such funds may be appropriate for the short-term reserves portion of a long-term investment portfolio or for investors with short-term investment horizons (3 years or less).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VSBSX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 24 periods
24/108 = 22.2%
-$94.78 (average), -$82.29 (median)
Number of periods in which VSBSX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 10 periods
10/108 = 9.3%
-$15.03 (average), -$13.41 (median)
Number of periods in which VSBSX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 82 periods
82/108 = 75.9%
-$146.94 (average), -$142.59 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 10/2017 - 9/2018 -$177.70
Dollar loss, 5/2017 - 4/2018 -$37.27
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 8/2017 - 7/2018 -$319.22
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VSBSX vs VMMXX, 10/2017 - 9/2018
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 108 overlapping 12-month periods +$40.09 (average), +$46.09 (median)

VSGBX: Vanguard Short-Term Federal

VSGBX: Vanguard Short-Term Federal
2/1988 - 11/2019; 382 months total
(limited by start of available data for VSGBX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 371
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $473.89 (average), +$460.10 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 371 12-month periods 4.74%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 2.02%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VSGBX VSGBX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 1
(conservative)
Vanguard funds are classified as conservative if their share prices are expected to remain stable or to fluctuate only slightly. Such funds may be appropriate for the short-term reserves portion of a long-term investment portfolio or for investors with short-term investment horizons (3 years or less).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VSGBX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 100 periods
100/371 = 27.0%
-$132.79 (average), -$104.81 (median)
Number of periods in which VSGBX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 24 periods
24/371 = 6.5%
-$32.78 (average), -$29.42 (median)
Number of periods in which VSGBX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 116 periods
116/371 = 31.3%
-$151.74 (average), -$144.23 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 1/1994 - 12/1994 -$502.65
Dollar loss, 1/1994 - 12/1994 -$94.36
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 11/2004 - 10/2005 -$375.84
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VSGBX vs VMMXX, 1/1994 - 12/1994
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 371 overlapping 12-month periods +$149.14 (average), +$130.70 (median)

VTIPX: Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index

VTIPX: Vanguard Short-Term Inflation-Protected Securities Index
12/2012 - 11/2019; 84 months total
(limited by start of available data for VTIPX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 73
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $62.12 (average), +$54.90 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 73 12-month periods 0.62%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 1.53%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VTIPX VTIPX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 1
(conservative)
Vanguard funds are classified as conservative if their share prices are expected to remain stable or to fluctuate only slightly. Such funds may be appropriate for the short-term reserves portion of a long-term investment portfolio or for investors with short-term investment horizons (3 years or less).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VTIPX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 45 periods
45/73 = 61.6%
-$96.16 (average), -$95.75 (median)
Number of periods in which VTIPX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 25 periods
25/73 = 34.2%
-$111.22 (average), -$121.98 (median)
Number of periods in which VTIPX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 55 periods
55/73 = 75.3%
-$154.42 (average), -$157.31 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 9/2014 - 8/2015 -$224.53
Dollar loss, 9/2014 - 8/2015 -$222.98
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 4/2013 - 3/2014 -$347.89
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VTIPX vs VMMXX, 9/2014 - 8/2015
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 73 overlapping 12-month periods -$13.96 (average), -$30.41 (median)

Intermediate-term

VBMFX: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index

VBMFX: Vanguard Total Bond Market Index
2/1987 - 11/2019; 394 months total
(limited by start of available data for VBMFX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 383
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $606.56 (average), +$580.55 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 383 12-month periods 6.07%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 3.81%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VBMFX VBMFX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 2
(conservative to moderate)
Vanguard funds classified as conservative to moderate are subject to low to moderate fluctuations in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors with medium-term investment horizons (4 to 10 years).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VBMFX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 105 periods
105/383 = 27.4%
-$216.49 (average), -$170.36 (median)
Number of periods in which VBMFX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 38 periods
38/383 = 9.9%
-$126.38 (average), -$100.58 (median)
Number of periods in which VBMFX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 82 periods
82/383 = 21.4%
-$245.39 (average), -$215.60 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 11/1993 - 10/1994 -$743.09
Dollar loss, 11/1993 - 10/1994 -$372.88
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 11/1993 - 10/1994 -$633.69
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VBMFX vs VMMXX, 11/1993 - 10/1994
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 383 overlapping 12-month periods +$269.56 (average), +$284.21 (median)

VTEB: Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Index Fund

VTEB: Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Index Fund
10/2015 - 11/2019; 50 months total
(limited by start of available data for VTEB, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 39
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $283.46 (average), +$136.26 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 39 12-month periods 2.83%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 3.06%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VTEB VTEB
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 2
(conservative to moderate)
Vanguard funds classified as conservative to moderate are subject to low to moderate fluctuations in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors with medium-term investment horizons (4 to 10 years).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VTEB made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 18 periods
18/39 = 46.2%
-$78.49 (average), -$61.60 (median)
Number of periods in which VTEB lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 5 periods
5/39 = 12.8%
-$38.45 (average), -$28.61 (median)
Number of periods in which VTEB failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 21 periods
21/39 = 53.8%
-$180.10 (average), -$176.11 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 11/2017 - 10/2018 -$262.26
Dollar loss, 11/2017 - 10/2018 -$85.35
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 11/2017 - 10/2018 -$337.60
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VTEB vs VMMXX, 11/2017 - 10/2018
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 39 overlapping 12-month periods +$146.18 (average), +$51.34 (median)

VWIUX: Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt

VWIUX: Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt
11/1977 - 11/2019; 505 months total
(limited by start of available data for VWIUX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 494
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $567.00 (average), +$543.19 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 494 12-month periods 5.67%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 5.49%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VWIUX VWIUX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 2
(conservative to moderate)
Vanguard funds classified as conservative to moderate are subject to low to moderate fluctuations in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors with medium-term investment horizons (4 to 10 years).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VWIUX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 184 periods
184/494 = 37.2%
-$588.72 (average), -$233.87 (median)
Number of periods in which VWIUX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 67 periods
67/494 = 13.6%
-$407.91 (average), -$212.28 (median)
Number of periods in which VWIUX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 147 periods
147/494 = 29.8%
-$620.38 (average), -$271.88 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 9/1980 - 8/1981 -$3159.91
Dollar loss, 4/1979 - 3/1980 -$1563.90
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 4/1979 - 3/1980 -$3039.55
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VWIUX vs VMMXX, 9/1980 - 8/1981
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 494 overlapping 12-month periods +$70.72 (average), +$149.84 (median)

Long-term

VNYTX: Vanguard New York Long-Term Tax-Exempt

VNYTX: Vanguard New York Long-Term Tax-Exempt
6/1986 - 11/2019; 402 months total
(limited by start of available data for VNYTX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 391
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $580.23 (average), +$600.57 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 391 12-month periods 5.80%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 5.29%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VNYTX VNYTX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 3
(moderate)
Vanguard funds classified as moderate are subject to a moderate degree of fluctuation in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors who have a relatively long-term investment horizon (more than 5 years).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VNYTX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 124 periods
124/391 = 31.7%
-$327.51 (average), -$226.70 (median)
Number of periods in which VNYTX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 47 periods
47/391 = 12.0%
-$260.35 (average), -$288.70 (median)
Number of periods in which VNYTX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 116 periods
116/391 = 29.7%
-$294.57 (average), -$219.35 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 11/1986 - 10/1987 -$1381.28
Dollar loss, 11/1986 - 10/1987 -$750.14
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 11/1986 - 10/1987 -$1203.45
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VNYTX vs VMMXX, 11/1986 - 10/1987
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 391 overlapping 12-month periods +$237.40 (average), +$248.10 (median)

Balanced

VBINX: Vanguard Balanced Index

VBINX: Vanguard Balanced Index
1/1993 - 11/2019; 323 months total
(limited by start of available data for VBINX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 312
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $845.38 (average), +$984.76 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 312 12-month periods 8.45%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 8.80%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VBINX VBINX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 3
(moderate)
Vanguard funds classified as moderate are subject to a moderate degree of fluctuation in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors who have a relatively long-term investment horizon (more than 5 years).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VBINX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 66 periods
66/312 = 21.2%
-$959.42 (average), -$773.22 (median)
Number of periods in which VBINX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 55 periods
55/312 = 17.6%
-$783.36 (average), -$485.73 (median)
Number of periods in which VBINX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 68 periods
68/312 = 21.8%
-$824.47 (average), -$631.16 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$3000.48
Dollar loss, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$2767.23
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$2790.85
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VBINX vs VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 312 overlapping 12-month periods +$584.54 (average), +$747.39 (median)

VSCGX: Vanguard LifeStrategy Conservative Growth

VSCGX: Vanguard LifeStrategy Conservative Growth
11/1994 - 11/2019; 301 months total
(limited by start of available data for VSCGX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 290
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $695.60 (average), +$780.50 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 290 12-month periods 6.96%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 6.69%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VSCGX VSCGX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 3
(moderate)
Vanguard funds classified as moderate are subject to a moderate degree of fluctuation in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors who have a relatively long-term investment horizon (more than 5 years).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VSCGX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 59 periods
59/290 = 20.3%
-$744.00 (average), -$535.80 (median)
Number of periods in which VSCGX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 44 periods
44/290 = 15.2%
-$652.59 (average), -$395.93 (median)
Number of periods in which VSCGX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 63 periods
63/290 = 21.7%
-$612.24 (average), -$368.79 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$2660.09
Dollar loss, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$2426.84
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$2450.46
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VSCGX vs VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 290 overlapping 12-month periods +$445.73 (average), +$533.24 (median)

VSMGX: Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth

VSMGX: Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth
11/1994 - 11/2019; 301 months total
(limited by start of available data for VSMGX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 290
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $795.57 (average), +$992.10 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 290 12-month periods 7.96%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 9.41%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VSMGX VSMGX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 3
(moderate)
Vanguard funds classified as moderate are subject to a moderate degree of fluctuation in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors who have a relatively long-term investment horizon (more than 5 years).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VSMGX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 67 periods
67/290 = 23.1%
-$1032.23 (average), -$884.19 (median)
Number of periods in which VSMGX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 59 periods
59/290 = 20.3%
-$869.41 (average), -$585.99 (median)
Number of periods in which VSMGX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 68 periods
68/290 = 23.4%
-$941.55 (average), -$707.64 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$3459.91
Dollar loss, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$3226.66
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$3250.28
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VSMGX vs VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 290 overlapping 12-month periods +$545.70 (average), +$743.50 (median)

VASIX: Vanguard LifeStrategy Income

VASIX: Vanguard LifeStrategy Income
11/1994 - 11/2019; 301 months total
(limited by start of available data for VASIX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 290
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $612.58 (average), +$596.85 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 290 12-month periods 6.13%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 4.33%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VASIX VASIX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 2
(conservative to moderate)
Vanguard funds classified as conservative to moderate are subject to low to moderate fluctuations in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors with medium-term investment horizons (4 to 10 years).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VASIX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 53 periods
53/290 = 18.3%
-$375.77 (average), -$202.98 (median)
Number of periods in which VASIX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 22 periods
22/290 = 7.6%
-$504.99 (average), -$163.66 (median)
Number of periods in which VASIX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 46 periods
46/290 = 15.9%
-$371.38 (average), -$236.60 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$1662.90
Dollar loss, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$1429.66
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 11/2007 - 10/2008 -$1594.10
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VASIX vs VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 290 overlapping 12-month periods +$362.71 (average), +$369.97 (median)

VASGX: Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth

VASGX: Vanguard LifeStrategy Growth
11/1994 - 11/2019; 301 months total
(limited by start of available data for VASGX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 290
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $878.24 (average), +$1169.75 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 290 12-month periods 8.78%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 12.29%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VASGX VASGX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 4
(moderate to aggressive)
Vanguard funds classified as moderate to aggressive are broadly diversified but are subject to wide fluctuations in share prices because they hold virtually all of their assets in common stocks. These funds may be appropriate for investors who have a long-term investment horizon (10 years or longer).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VASGX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 76 periods
76/290 = 26.2%
-$1293.38 (average), -$1175.26 (median)
Number of periods in which VASGX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 67 periods
67/290 = 23.1%
-$1179.95 (average), -$885.60 (median)
Number of periods in which VASGX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 77 periods
77/290 = 26.6%
-$1211.60 (average), -$978.27 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$4293.05
Dollar loss, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$4059.80
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$4083.42
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VASGX vs VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 290 overlapping 12-month periods +$628.37 (average), +$935.55 (median)

VWELX: Vanguard Wellington

VWELX: Vanguard Wellington
8/1975 - 11/2019; 532 months total
(limited by start of available data for VMMXX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 521
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $1143.11 (average), +$1167.85 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 521 12-month periods 11.43%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 10.12%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VWELX VWELX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 3
(moderate)
Vanguard funds classified as moderate are subject to a moderate degree of fluctuation in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors who have a relatively long-term investment horizon (more than 5 years).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VWELX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 127 periods
127/521 = 24.4%
-$783.88 (average), -$655.82 (median)
Number of periods in which VWELX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 70 periods
70/521 = 13.4%
-$610.53 (average), -$373.47 (median)
Number of periods in which VWELX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 117 periods
117/521 = 22.5%
-$685.15 (average), -$511.66 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$3104.03
Dollar loss, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$2870.78
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$2894.40
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VWELX vs VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 521 overlapping 12-month periods +$645.11 (average), +$747.25 (median)

VWINX: Vanguard Wellesley Income

VWINX: Vanguard Wellesley Income
8/1975 - 11/2019; 532 months total
(limited by start of available data for VMMXX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 521
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $1034.38 (average), +$921.95 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 521 12-month periods 10.34%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 6.95%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VWINX VWINX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 3
(moderate)
Vanguard funds classified as moderate are subject to a moderate degree of fluctuation in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors who have a relatively long-term investment horizon (more than 5 years).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VWINX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 130 periods
130/521 = 25.0%
-$549.84 (average), -$470.07 (median)
Number of periods in which VWINX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 38 periods
38/521 = 7.3%
-$479.82 (average), -$353.96 (median)
Number of periods in which VWINX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 116 periods
116/521 = 22.3%
-$474.54 (average), -$404.59 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$1884.28
Dollar loss, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$1651.03
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 4/1979 - 3/1980 -$1984.16
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VWINX vs VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 521 overlapping 12-month periods +$536.38 (average), +$590.60 (median)

Stock

VFINX: Vanguard 500 Index Investor

VFINX: Vanguard 500 Index Investor
10/1976 - 11/2019; 518 months total
(limited by start of available data for VFINX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 507
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $1239.19 (average), +$1384.03 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 507 12-month periods 12.39%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 14.68%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VFINX VFINX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 4
(moderate to aggressive)
Vanguard funds classified as moderate to aggressive are broadly diversified but are subject to wide fluctuations in share prices because they hold virtually all of their assets in common stocks. These funds may be appropriate for investors who have a long-term investment horizon (10 years or longer).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VFINX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 126 periods
126/507 = 24.9%
-$1464.58 (average), -$1384.27 (median)
Number of periods in which VFINX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 93 periods
93/507 = 18.3%
-$1285.91 (average), -$965.20 (median)
Number of periods in which VFINX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 121 periods
121/507 = 23.9%
-$1326.04 (average), -$1168.58 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$4565.72
Dollar loss, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$4332.47
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$4356.09
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VFINX vs VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 507 overlapping 12-month periods +$742.02 (average), +$895.64 (median)

VGT: Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund

VGT: Vanguard Information Technology Index Fund
3/2004 - 11/2019; 189 months total
(limited by start of available data for VGT, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 178
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $1340.98 (average), +$1317.01 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 178 12-month periods 13.41%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 17.67%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VGT VGT
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 5
(aggressive)
Vanguard funds classified as aggressive are subject to extremely wide fluctuations in share prices. These funds may be appropriate for investors who have a long-term investment horizon (10 years or longer). The unusually high volatility associated with these funds may stem from a number of strategies.
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VGT made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 33 periods
33/178 = 18.5%
-$1478.65 (average), -$753.79 (median)
Number of periods in which VGT lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 28 periods
28/178 = 15.7%
-$1463.38 (average), -$831.76 (median)
Number of periods in which VGT failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 35 periods
35/178 = 19.7%
-$1360.78 (average), -$756.79 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 12/2007 - 11/2008 -$4615.09
Dollar loss, 12/2007 - 11/2008 -$4318.33
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 11/2007 - 10/2008 -$4488.07
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VGT vs VMMXX, 12/2007 - 11/2008
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 178 overlapping 12-month periods +$1195.18 (average), +$1203.10 (median)

VTEAX: Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Index

VTEAX: Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond Index
10/2015 - 11/2019; 50 months total
(limited by start of available data for VTEAX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 39
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $284.04 (average), +$135.48 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 39 12-month periods 2.84%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 3.05%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VTEAX VTEAX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 2
(conservative to moderate)
Vanguard funds classified as conservative to moderate are subject to low to moderate fluctuations in share prices. In general, such funds may be appropriate for investors with medium-term investment horizons (4 to 10 years).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VTEAX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 18 periods
18/39 = 46.2%
-$77.15 (average), -$59.77 (median)
Number of periods in which VTEAX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 4 periods
4/39 = 10.3%
-$43.59 (average), -$44.69 (median)
Number of periods in which VTEAX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 21 periods
21/39 = 53.8%
-$179.08 (average), -$174.01 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 11/2017 - 10/2018 -$261.41
Dollar loss, 11/2017 - 10/2018 -$84.50
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 11/2017 - 10/2018 -$336.75
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VTEAX vs VMMXX, 11/2017 - 10/2018
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 39 overlapping 12-month periods +$146.76 (average), +$49.37 (median)

VTI: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund

VTI: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund
6/1992 - 11/2019; 330 months total
(limited by start of available data for VTI, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 319
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $1097.73 (average), +$1383.41 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 319 12-month periods 10.98%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 14.52%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VTI VTI
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 4
(moderate to aggressive)
Vanguard funds classified as moderate to aggressive are broadly diversified but are subject to wide fluctuations in share prices because they hold virtually all of their assets in common stocks. These funds may be appropriate for investors who have a long-term investment horizon (10 years or longer).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VTI made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 72 periods
72/319 = 22.6%
-$1587.34 (average), -$1507.24 (median)
Number of periods in which VTI lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 61 periods
61/319 = 19.1%
-$1535.06 (average), -$1367.37 (median)
Number of periods in which VTI failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 71 periods
71/319 = 22.3%
-$1510.09 (average), -$1396.15 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$4547.36
Dollar loss, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$4314.12
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$4337.74
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VTI vs VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 319 overlapping 12-month periods +$835.80 (average), +$1111.89 (median)

VTIAX: Vanguard Total International Stock Index

VTIAX: Vanguard Total International Stock Index
6/1996 - 11/2019; 282 months total
(limited by start of available data for VTIAX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 271
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $667.69 (average), +$863.31 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 271 12-month periods 6.68%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 16.82%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VTIAX VTIAX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 5
(aggressive)
Vanguard funds classified as aggressive are subject to extremely wide fluctuations in share prices. These funds may be appropriate for investors who have a long-term investment horizon (10 years or longer). The unusually high volatility associated with these funds may stem from a number of strategies.
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VTIAX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 108 periods
108/271 = 39.9%
-$1489.53 (average), -$1175.82 (median)
Number of periods in which VTIAX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 94 periods
94/271 = 34.7%
-$1453.19 (average), -$1188.21 (median)
Number of periods in which VTIAX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 103 periods
103/271 = 38.0%
-$1499.40 (average), -$1276.12 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$5383.16
Dollar loss, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$5149.92
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 11/2007 - 10/2008 -$5222.38
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VTIAX vs VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 271 overlapping 12-month periods +$438.88 (average), +$609.78 (median)

VTSAX: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index

VTSAX: Vanguard Total Stock Market Index
6/1992 - 11/2019; 330 months total
(limited by start of available data for VTSAX, and by end of available data for CPI data)
Length of holding period 12 months
Total number of overlapping 12-month periods 319
Average/median number of dollars earned in 12 months on a $10,000 investment $1097.41 (average), +$1381.45 (median)
Average CAGR (annualized rate of return) of those 319 12-month periods 10.97%
Standard deviation (σ) of single-month returns, annualized 14.45%
Link to Vanguard's web page for VTSAX VTSAX
Vanguard's risk potential classification
Risk level 4
(moderate to aggressive)
Vanguard funds classified as moderate to aggressive are broadly diversified but are subject to wide fluctuations in share prices because they hold virtually all of their assets in common stocks. These funds may be appropriate for investors who have a long-term investment horizon (10 years or longer).
Frequency and severity of disappointment
Number of periods in which VTSAX made less than VMMXX
Average/median shortfall versus VMMXX over those 72 periods
72/319 = 22.6%
-$1587.75 (average), -$1506.84 (median)
Number of periods in which VTSAX lost money
Average/median dollar loss over those 61 periods
61/319 = 19.1%
-$1535.53 (average), -$1368.58 (median)
Number of periods in which VTSAX failed to keep up with inflation
Average/median real loss (inflation-corrected) over those 71 periods
71/319 = 22.3%
-$1510.51 (average), -$1395.19 (median)
Worst single 12-month performance
Compared to VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$4548.42
Dollar loss, 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$4315.17
Real loss (inflation-corrected), 3/2008 - 2/2009 -$4338.79
Link to Morningstar chart for that worst period
Compared to VMMXX VTSAX vs VMMXX, 3/2008 - 2/2009
Reward for taking that risk
Average/median additional return above VMMXX, over 319 overlapping 12-month periods +$835.48 (average), +$1111.76 (median)

Notes

  1. John Bogle, in his 1994 classic, Bogle on Mutual Funds, suggested using a low-cost short-term treasury bond fund, with its government backed credit rating, as a prudent substitute for a money market fund for investment reserves distinct from savings and transaction account balances. (p.132 in the text)
  2. For funds and ETFs, calculations are based on data made publicly available free of charge from Morningstar. Data for the CPI is CPI-U, "CPI for All Urban Consumers," not seasonally adjusted, obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
  3. John Bogle, in his 1994 classic, Bogle on Mutual Funds, suggested using a low-cost short-term treasury bond fund, with its government backed credit rating, as a prudent substitute for a money market fund for investment reserves distinct from savings and transaction account balances. (p.132 in the text)