U.S. stocks in free fall

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strummer6969
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by strummer6969 »

MindBogler wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:00 pm
Keenobserver wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:52 pm Funny how everyone suddenly " knew" this was going to happen. The reasons for the drop being so obvious suddenly. No one knows nothin.. we can end with a positive 2022 or go down a lot or little more or stay the same. No one knows.
On the contrary, there have been numerous individuals here and elsewhere sounding the alarm for awhile. The reasons were obvious and multitude but the timing has always been problematic. The idea that "no one knows nothin" is really nothing more than a tired dogmatic trope tossed around this forum. Yes, buy and hold works perfectly fine but to presume that everyone in the world is ignorant is a failure of imagination.
Everyday someone sounds the alarm. Eventually someone somewhere will be right.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:40 pm
MindBogler wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:00 pm
Keenobserver wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:52 pm Funny how everyone suddenly " knew" this was going to happen. The reasons for the drop being so obvious suddenly. No one knows nothin.. we can end with a positive 2022 or go down a lot or little more or stay the same. No one knows.
On the contrary, there have been numerous individuals here and elsewhere sounding the alarm for awhile. The reasons were obvious and multitude but the timing has always been problematic. The idea that "no one knows nothin" is really nothing more than a tired dogmatic trope tossed around this forum. Yes, buy and hold works perfectly fine but to presume that everyone in the world is ignorant is a failure of imagination.
Everyday someone sounds the alarm. Eventually someone somewhere will be right.
But some people are right more often than others.
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Beensabu »

marcopolo wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:25 pm There have been people screaming about this market being over valued and due for a crash since 2013. The fact that they might be right now (still a long ways from a big crash, this is pretty routine so far), hardly supports the idea that it was "obvious".
In 20 years, there are going to be sooooooooooooo many papers about that and the effect of ZIRP, it's not even going to be funny. It's going to be the "I don't feel like coming up with my own topic" topic. And we, as those who lived through it will go, suuuuuuuure it's soooooooooo obvious NOW... mumble, mumble... Whippersnappers... Just you wait for your "whaaa? what's going on? this makes no sense, okay, whatever, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee... aaaaaaaah, ouch..."
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Keenobserver »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:10 pm
MindBogler wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:00 pm
Keenobserver wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:52 pm Funny how everyone suddenly " knew" this was going to happen. The reasons for the drop being so obvious suddenly. No one knows nothin.. we can end with a positive 2022 or go down a lot or little more or stay the same. No one knows.
On the contrary, there have been numerous individuals here and elsewhere sounding the alarm for awhile. The reasons were obvious and multitude but the timing has always been problematic. The idea that "no one knows nothin" is really nothing more than a tired dogmatic trope tossed around this forum. Yes, buy and hold works perfectly fine but to presume that everyone in the world is ignorant is a failure of imagination.
Agreed.
Wrong. Its such a basic fallacy. Since I started on this forum,
there have been people saying a crash is imminent. My portofilio having swelled in the meantime. When is a crash not ever imminent? When are there ever no reasons for a supposed crash or correction to be imminent ? I have never known a time when a stock market crash was not imminent. Funny how people never learn, and with each cycle you get people pretending they knew or know what will happen. Seen it all before. Everyone is suddenly an expert in hindsight. Search this forum, or just google articles on an imminent crash, and have your pick for any year, any month, any quarter and you shall find it. The reasons are not "obvious" as you say, that only goes to show how rudimentary your understanding of wallstreet is. Its like saying we are all going to die one day and eventually being right once enough time has passed. 2008 was so " obvious" to so many people AFTER it happend. There are so many experts in hindsight and I see them again here just like 2008. Anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of the market knows that its not rational and therefore difficult if not impossible to predict consistently. So its stands, No one knows nothin.. This is proven again and again statisticaly and yet people will still try to rationalize something effected by unknown number of factors and affected by human pysche/ sentiment., not to mention forward looking. Good luck with that. I have no idea precisely what will happen. I have never known anyone who actually does. Maybe you will be the first.
marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:45 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:40 pm
MindBogler wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:00 pm
Keenobserver wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:52 pm Funny how everyone suddenly " knew" this was going to happen. The reasons for the drop being so obvious suddenly. No one knows nothin.. we can end with a positive 2022 or go down a lot or little more or stay the same. No one knows.
On the contrary, there have been numerous individuals here and elsewhere sounding the alarm for awhile. The reasons were obvious and multitude but the timing has always been problematic. The idea that "no one knows nothin" is really nothing more than a tired dogmatic trope tossed around this forum. Yes, buy and hold works perfectly fine but to presume that everyone in the world is ignorant is a failure of imagination.
Everyday someone sounds the alarm. Eventually someone somewhere will be right.
But some people are right more often than others.
For someone who repeatedly claims to be able predict where markets are going, it seems rather odd to post about how you are drastically cutting back expenses.

If you really believed you had this special ability, and the rest of us are just too blind/naive to see the obvious, you should be able to handsomely benefit financially from that brilliant insight.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

Keenobserver wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:59 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:10 pm
MindBogler wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:00 pm
Keenobserver wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:52 pm Funny how everyone suddenly " knew" this was going to happen. The reasons for the drop being so obvious suddenly. No one knows nothin.. we can end with a positive 2022 or go down a lot or little more or stay the same. No one knows.
On the contrary, there have been numerous individuals here and elsewhere sounding the alarm for awhile. The reasons were obvious and multitude but the timing has always been problematic. The idea that "no one knows nothin" is really nothing more than a tired dogmatic trope tossed around this forum. Yes, buy and hold works perfectly fine but to presume that everyone in the world is ignorant is a failure of imagination.
Agreed.
Wrong. Its such a basic fallacy. Since I started on this forum,
there have been people saying a crash is imminent. My portofilio having swelled in the meantime. When is a crash not ever imminent? When are there ever no reasons for a supposed crash or correction to be imminent ? I have never known a time when a stock market crash was not imminent. Funny how people never learn, and with each cycle you get people pretending they knew or know what will happen. Seen it all before. Everyone is suddenly an expert in hindsight. Search this forum, or just google articles on an imminent crash, and have your pick for any year, any month, any quarter and you shall find it. The reasons are not "obvious" as you say, that only goes to show how rudimentary your understanding of wallstreet is. Its like saying we are all going to die one day and eventually being right once enough time has passed. 2008 was so " obvious" to so many people AFTER it happend. There are so many experts in hindsight and I see them again here just like 2008. Anyone with even a rudimentary understanding of the market knows that its not rational and therefore difficult if not impossible to predict consistently. So its stands, No one knows nothin.. This is proven again and again statisticaly and yet people will still try to rationalize something effected by unknown number of factors and affected by human pysche/ sentiment., not to mention forward looking. Good luck with that. I have no idea precisely what will happen. I have never known anyone who actually does. Maybe you will be the first.
I don't think everyone knows everything. But I also don't think no one knows nothing.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

MindBogler wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:00 pm
Keenobserver wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:52 pm Funny how everyone suddenly " knew" this was going to happen. The reasons for the drop being so obvious suddenly. No one knows nothin.. we can end with a positive 2022 or go down a lot or little more or stay the same. No one knows.
On the contrary, there have been numerous individuals here and elsewhere sounding the alarm for awhile. The reasons were obvious and multitude but the timing has always been problematic. The idea that "no one knows nothin" is really nothing more than a tired dogmatic trope tossed around this forum. Yes, buy and hold works perfectly fine but to presume that everyone in the world is ignorant is a failure of imagination.
The problem with your theory is people have been "sounding the alarm" since you joined in 2013...

In fact, this very thread has posts nearly every single year since 2011 with people "sounding the alarm" with "obvious" reasons that that the market is going to crash soon.

It absolutely is true is "Nobody knows nothing" (or at least "Nobody knows enough") to predict the future.

You are posting in the very thread that proves that true. It is not a "tired dogmatic trope".

It IS NEVER OBVIOUS. Not until afterwards.

Did you get out of the market in 2013 because I guarantee there were people "sounding the alarm" when you joined in 2013.
Last edited by HomerJ on Wed May 25, 2022 7:41 am, edited 3 times in total.
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DonIce
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by DonIce »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:02 am
Keenobserver wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:58 am Should we really be bracing for 08 repeat? What can pull the rug the same as 08?
Could be more like 1929.

That's the sense I'm getting.
What's with all the 1929 comparisons when it's really more like 476.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HanSolo »

DonIce wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 12:44 am
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:02 am
Keenobserver wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:58 am Should we really be bracing for 08 repeat? What can pull the rug the same as 08?
Could be more like 1929.

That's the sense I'm getting.
What's with all the 1929 comparisons when it's really more like 476.
... or 2018?
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bostonboglehead123
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bostonboglehead123 »

This drop was a good insight into my personal risk tolerance. i.e., I'm not bothered by the market being down as long as I'm employed and get my pay check. I'm still in the hey, I'm buying stocks on sale phase.

On the other hand I have severe FOMO and still regret missing out on things like TSLA, BTC and the Meme stocks because I've been so conservative with my investments (100% S&P) over the past 10 years.

Maybe it's partly media narrative + current macro environment - people are still not losing jobs, media still is unsure about the recession, no one really thinks this is a doom and gloom scenario. The worst I've seen is predictions of sideways / choppy markets for the next few years.

Once the job losses kick in I might feel differently.
freyj6
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by freyj6 »

bostonboglehead123 wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 1:44 am This drop was a good insight into my personal risk tolerance. i.e., I'm not bothered by the market being down as long as I'm employed and get my pay check. I'm still in the hey, I'm buying stocks on sale phase.

On the other hand I have severe FOMO and still regret missing out on things like TSLA, BTC and the Meme stocks because I've been so conservative with my investments (100% S&P) over the past 10 years.

Maybe it's partly media narrative + current macro environment - people are still not losing jobs, media still is unsure about the recession, no one really thinks this is a doom and gloom scenario. The worst I've seen is predictions of sideways / choppy markets for the next few years.

Once the job losses kick in I might feel differently.
I think most of the people feeling comparison anxiety and FOMO tend to overestimate how well other people have done. While there are people who had a substantial portion of their net worth in bitcoin or Tesla from the early stages and held this whole time, I certainly haven’t met any of them. Those rare ones who did don’t seem to be aware of their extraordinary good fortune in and don’t appear to be financially savvy enough de-risk and sail off into the sunset. In other words, anyone who put 100% of their net worth in Tesla five years ago is the same kind of person who will ride it all the way down.

As the quote goes, “there are bold investors and there are old investors but there are no old bold investors”.
technovelist
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by technovelist »

alfaspider wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:54 am
rebellovw wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:53 am
alfaspider wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:51 am
ClassII wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:11 am
elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:05 am Slow grinding is always worse emotionally vs flash crash like 2010 or 2020..

Feels like 07 before the panic set in..yeah no sub prime crises but too much QE and near zero interest rates may have well pushed us into.
It does make me wonder if this slow grind is going to lead to a breaking point similar (though probably not as severe, hopefully) as 08. Enough bad earnings and dropping stock prices and companies will have to react to it, such as layoffs. Jobs always lag economic news and once people start to fear getting the axe things like investing and 401k savings really take a nosedive. The proverbial "blood in the streets" moment. Even more so if large corporations start to go bankrupt or even shut down.
It's a different feeling form 08 because that had a more direct catalyst. The "subprime crisis" had been in the news since late 2007, and there was widespread worry it would spread to the greater economy. You had the Bear Stearns collapse in early 2008 as a canary in the coal mine for greater contagion starting to occur, but it wasn't until the time Lehman collapse that the financial system started to lock up. That lead to major banks like Washington Mutual failing. The stock market didn't tank until it was clear we were in a full blown financial crisis.

Today, I don't see quite the same crisis waiting in the wings. There has been nothing analogous to Bear Stearns collapsing (or any other financial institution) or other big event people are worrying about spreading to the broader economy. Today, there's just inflation and worries about steps taken to fight it. That could certainly cause stocks to continue to grind downwards further than today, but I think it's more likely to be a slow grind than a sudden collapse like Fall 2008.
Nuclear war? Seems a concern. I don't recall that being a topic in 2008.
If there's a full blown nuclear war, then the stock market is the least of our worries.
So you're not looking forward to snapping up radioactive bargains? :D
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.
Tom_T
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tom_T »

freyj6 wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 2:13 am
bostonboglehead123 wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 1:44 am This drop was a good insight into my personal risk tolerance. i.e., I'm not bothered by the market being down as long as I'm employed and get my pay check. I'm still in the hey, I'm buying stocks on sale phase.

On the other hand I have severe FOMO and still regret missing out on things like TSLA, BTC and the Meme stocks because I've been so conservative with my investments (100% S&P) over the past 10 years.

Maybe it's partly media narrative + current macro environment - people are still not losing jobs, media still is unsure about the recession, no one really thinks this is a doom and gloom scenario. The worst I've seen is predictions of sideways / choppy markets for the next few years.

Once the job losses kick in I might feel differently.
I think most of the people feeling comparison anxiety and FOMO tend to overestimate how well other people have done. While there are people who had a substantial portion of their net worth in bitcoin or Tesla from the early stages and held this whole time, I certainly haven’t met any of them. Those rare ones who did don’t seem to be aware of their extraordinary good fortune in and don’t appear to be financially savvy enough de-risk and sail off into the sunset. In other words, anyone who put 100% of their net worth in Tesla five years ago is the same kind of person who will ride it all the way down.

As the quote goes, “there are bold investors and there are old investors but there are no old bold investors”.
Agreed. A number of years ago, I was listening to a financial podcast where they were talking about this new digital currency being used in a couple of places in NYC, called bitcoin. I think a bitcoin was worth around $100 at the time, maybe less. It wasn't a big thing and it sounded crazy. The odds of me (1) figuring out how to get bitcoin, (2) investing money in it, and most importantly, (3) holding onto to it all these years watching it skyrocket and not selling it... those odds aren't very good.
alfaspider
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alfaspider »

Tom_T wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 7:38 am
freyj6 wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 2:13 am
bostonboglehead123 wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 1:44 am This drop was a good insight into my personal risk tolerance. i.e., I'm not bothered by the market being down as long as I'm employed and get my pay check. I'm still in the hey, I'm buying stocks on sale phase.

On the other hand I have severe FOMO and still regret missing out on things like TSLA, BTC and the Meme stocks because I've been so conservative with my investments (100% S&P) over the past 10 years.

Maybe it's partly media narrative + current macro environment - people are still not losing jobs, media still is unsure about the recession, no one really thinks this is a doom and gloom scenario. The worst I've seen is predictions of sideways / choppy markets for the next few years.

Once the job losses kick in I might feel differently.
I think most of the people feeling comparison anxiety and FOMO tend to overestimate how well other people have done. While there are people who had a substantial portion of their net worth in bitcoin or Tesla from the early stages and held this whole time, I certainly haven’t met any of them. Those rare ones who did don’t seem to be aware of their extraordinary good fortune in and don’t appear to be financially savvy enough de-risk and sail off into the sunset. In other words, anyone who put 100% of their net worth in Tesla five years ago is the same kind of person who will ride it all the way down.

As the quote goes, “there are bold investors and there are old investors but there are no old bold investors”.
Agreed. A number of years ago, I was listening to a financial podcast where they were talking about this new digital currency being used in a couple of places in NYC, called bitcoin. I think a bitcoin was worth around $100 at the time, maybe less. It wasn't a big thing and it sounded crazy. The odds of me (1) figuring out how to get bitcoin, (2) investing money in it, and most importantly, (3) holding onto to it all these years watching it skyrocket and not selling it... those odds aren't very good.
I read the now infamous Wired magazine article where someone paid thousands of bitcoin for a pizza. I thought to myself "sounds fun" and went so far as to look seriously into mining. This was back when a gaming PC like I had at the time could have mined multiple coins a day. Only thing that stopped me was I had roommates at the time and didn't want to spike the electricity bill :oops:

But realistically, I would have probably cashed out bitcoin as soon as it had any real value. It would have been too tempting when it became enough to pay off my student loans and make a down payment on my first house. Would have kicked myself even harder for not waiting until it was worth millions.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

alfaspider wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 7:45 amBut realistically, I would have probably cashed out bitcoin as soon as it had any real value. It would have been too tempting when it became enough to pay off my student loans and make a down payment on my first house. Would have kicked myself even harder for not waiting until it was worth millions.
This is why I never get regret over not investing in something that went "to the moon." I never would have held it that long anyway. It would get to a point where it's too large a percentage of my portfolio for my comfort (which isn't much) or maybe to a point where I could pay off my house, and I'd cash it out and move to index funds. Or pay off my house.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 8:19 am
alfaspider wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 7:45 amBut realistically, I would have probably cashed out bitcoin as soon as it had any real value. It would have been too tempting when it became enough to pay off my student loans and make a down payment on my first house. Would have kicked myself even harder for not waiting until it was worth millions.
This is why I never get regret over not investing in something that went "to the moon." I never would have held it that long anyway. It would get to a point where it's too large a percentage of my portfolio for my comfort (which isn't much) or maybe to a point where I could pay off my house, and I'd cash it out and move to index funds. Or pay off my house.
I believe this type of self awareness helps make one a better investor.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Californiastate
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Californiastate »

The market is hunting for direction at 6:39 PST.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Californiastate wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 8:39 am The market is hunting for direction at 6:39 PST.
I suspect when it finds a direction, it will be red.
elderwise
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by elderwise »

atdharris wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 8:49 am
Californiastate wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 8:39 am The market is hunting for direction at 6:39 PST.
I suspect when it finds a direction, it will be red.
Well you timed that right we just turned red 😀
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Chief_Engineer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Chief_Engineer »

FOMC minutes release today and I think Powell will speak. So expect some kind of reaction to that today.
Randolph Mortimer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Randolph Mortimer »

701 pages, over 35,000 posts spanning 10 years proving without a shadow of a doubt "nobody knows nuthin" and some folks still don't get it. :oops:
bagastuff
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bagastuff »

Chief_Engineer wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 8:57 am FOMC minutes release today and I think Powell will speak. So expect some kind of reaction to that today.
Isn't it Brainard speaking? She shut down the late March bear really pretty hard...
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burritoLover
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by burritoLover »

Randolph Mortimer wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 9:06 am 701 pages, over 35,000 posts spanning 10 years proving without a shadow of a doubt "nobody knows nuthin" and some folks still don't get it. :oops:
Same reason 73% of drivers think they are better than average. They think they can figure out the markets better than the rest of us.
drg02b
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drg02b »

Randolph Mortimer wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 9:06 am 701 pages, over 35,000 posts spanning 10 years proving without a shadow of a doubt "nobody knows nuthin" and some folks still don't get it. :oops:
Meh, a lot of people are just here for the entertainment value.
drg02b
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drg02b »

Pump before the post-FOMC minutes release dump?
Firemenot
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Firemenot »

Randolph Mortimer wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 9:06 am 701 pages, over 35,000 posts spanning 10 years proving without a shadow of a doubt "nobody knows nuthin" and some folks still don't get it. :oops:
And probably just about every potential outcome was said somewhere by someone in those 35,000 posts. Now whoever happens to be correct knew more and is an oracle or something.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

drg02b wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 9:38 am Pump before the post-FOMC minutes release dump?
It seems like there is really strong resistance at the -20% level and we keep bouncing when we get to that. No idea if/when it will break. It probably all depends on whether inflation has peaked.
YoungSisyphus
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by YoungSisyphus »

In “good” news my bi-weekly $3,400 purchase got me 101.6 shares in my 401k’s total market index - as opposed to 94 shares in my April purchases. Is this the inflation I’m looking for? :D
H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

drg02b wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 9:38 am Pump before the post-FOMC minutes release dump?
lol you called +0.75% is a pump? It's barely a rounding error in bear market terms. Look at the trade volume and what do you see?
Time is the ultimate currency.
drg02b
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drg02b »

H-Town wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 9:54 am
drg02b wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 9:38 am Pump before the post-FOMC minutes release dump?
lol you called +0.75% is a pump? It's barely a rounding error in bear market terms. Look at the trade volume and what do you see?
First of all, I didn't specify a percentage. Second, it was a forward looking comment not a comment about today's performance so far. No need to be nitpicky and act like you're smarter than someone else on a thread who's purpose is solely for speculation/entertainment.
Californiastate
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Californiastate »

drg02b wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:05 am
H-Town wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 9:54 am
drg02b wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 9:38 am Pump before the post-FOMC minutes release dump?
lol you called +0.75% is a pump? It's barely a rounding error in bear market terms. Look at the trade volume and what do you see?
First of all, I didn't specify a percentage. Second, it was a forward looking comment not a comment about today's performance so far. No need to be nitpicky and act like you're smarter than someone else on a thread who's purpose is solely for speculation/entertainment.
You can always reply with the passive aggressive :facepalm. Apparently it's accepted as a non-snarky response and beyond the dreaded demerit designation. This place wants to think it's above the typicaly forum drama but it's not. Carry on.
H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

drg02b wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:05 am
H-Town wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 9:54 am
drg02b wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 9:38 am Pump before the post-FOMC minutes release dump?
lol you called +0.75% is a pump? It's barely a rounding error in bear market terms. Look at the trade volume and what do you see?
First of all, I didn't specify a percentage. Second, it was a forward looking comment not a comment about today's performance so far. No need to be nitpicky and act like you're smarter than someone else on a thread who's purpose is solely for speculation/entertainment.
So.. it's not a pump before the post-FOMC minutes release dump?
Time is the ultimate currency.
atdharris
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Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

At this point, any move higher is a fake pump until proven otherwise.
Marseille07
Posts: 16054
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

atdharris wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:17 am At this point, any move higher is a fake pump until proven otherwise.
All eyes on the FOMC minutes at 2 pm ET.
Firemenot
Posts: 1497
Joined: Wed Apr 01, 2020 8:48 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Firemenot »

H-Town wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:10 am
drg02b wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:05 am
H-Town wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 9:54 am
drg02b wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 9:38 am Pump before the post-FOMC minutes release dump?
lol you called +0.75% is a pump? It's barely a rounding error in bear market terms. Look at the trade volume and what do you see?
First of all, I didn't specify a percentage. Second, it was a forward looking comment not a comment about today's performance so far. No need to be nitpicky and act like you're smarter than someone else on a thread who's purpose is solely for speculation/entertainment.
So.. it's not a pump before the post-FOMC minutes release dump?
There’s so much talk of “pump” and “dump” in this thread. I think it’s insinuating that some forces are driving and profiting. Please elaborate on your thinking in that respect. Is it “bots” that so many talk about? And how do the “bots” profit, if so?
Robot Monster
Posts: 4215
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

Does anyone else have an extreme dislike for the words pump and dump? They're icky. If you were dining with Queen Elizabeth, would you dare voice something so undignified, so graceless? Dearest me!
drg02b
Posts: 235
Joined: Fri Dec 18, 2015 1:08 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drg02b »

Maybe if it was 250 years ago and I was still under their powers. :sharebeer
atdharris
Posts: 2091
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:22 am
atdharris wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:17 am At this point, any move higher is a fake pump until proven otherwise.
All eyes on the FOMC minutes at 2 pm ET.
If history is our guide, we'll pike 1.5% after Powell speaks and drop 2% tomorrow.
Marseille07
Posts: 16054
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

atdharris wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:36 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:22 am
atdharris wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:17 am At this point, any move higher is a fake pump until proven otherwise.
All eyes on the FOMC minutes at 2 pm ET.
If history is our guide, we'll pike 1.5% after Powell speaks and drop 2% tomorrow.
I don't see Chair Powell speaking. Vice Chair Brainard is speaking before the FOMC minutes. Today is not a Fed day, it is a Fed minutes day.
H-Town
Posts: 5905
Joined: Sun Feb 26, 2017 1:08 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

Firemenot wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:26 am
H-Town wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:10 am
drg02b wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:05 am
H-Town wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 9:54 am
drg02b wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 9:38 am Pump before the post-FOMC minutes release dump?
lol you called +0.75% is a pump? It's barely a rounding error in bear market terms. Look at the trade volume and what do you see?
First of all, I didn't specify a percentage. Second, it was a forward looking comment not a comment about today's performance so far. No need to be nitpicky and act like you're smarter than someone else on a thread who's purpose is solely for speculation/entertainment.
So.. it's not a pump before the post-FOMC minutes release dump?
There’s so much talk of “pump” and “dump” in this thread. I think it’s insinuating that some forces are driving and profiting. Please elaborate on your thinking in that respect. Is it “bots” that so many talk about? And how do the “bots” profit, if so?
I have very little knowledge of "bots". I do think there are day traders monitor the trade volume and take advantage of upside or downside swings during the trading day. For example, if stocks in free falling, some will choose to short selling stocks.
Time is the ultimate currency.
atdharris
Posts: 2091
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:37 am
atdharris wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:36 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:22 am
atdharris wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:17 am At this point, any move higher is a fake pump until proven otherwise.
All eyes on the FOMC minutes at 2 pm ET.
If history is our guide, we'll pike 1.5% after Powell speaks and drop 2% tomorrow.
I don't see Chair Powell speaking. Vice Chair Brainard is speaking before the FOMC minutes. Today is not a Fed day, it is a Fed minutes day.
Sorry, I meant FOMC minutes. Either way, I wouldn't be shocked if we see a spike at 2pm followed by a RBD tomorrow.
smooth_rough
Posts: 793
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:14 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by smooth_rough »

Beensabu wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:40 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:11 pm So other than oil/energy, is any other sector doing well for the rest of 2022?
Utilities sure seem to have been the little engine that could for some time (decades) now. I'd imagine that'll continue until whenever they start to go state-owned. Of course, that's just my imagination.
Vanguard utilites index fund looks interesting. Low cost fee. Behaves like ETF with low tax exposure. Dividend 3% now. Benefits from the pop in nat gas prices, with increasing clean tech component. While EVs are only going to drive demand for more juice from the power grid. This could be the more stable alternative to bonds that can bounce around with the interest rates.
Last edited by smooth_rough on Wed May 25, 2022 10:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
Robot Monster
Posts: 4215
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Robot Monster »

smooth_rough wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:48 am
Beensabu wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:40 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:11 pm So other than oil/energy, is any other sector doing well for the rest of 2022?
Utilities sure seem to have been the little engine that could for some time (decades) now. I'd imagine that'll continue until whenever they start to go state-owned. Of course, that's just my imagination.
Vanguard utilites index fund looks interesting. Low cost fee. Behaves like ETF with low tax exposure. Dividend 3% now. Benefits from the pop in nat gas prices, with increasing clean tech component. While EVs are only going to drive demand for more juice from the power grid. Nice alternative to bonds over time which bounce around with the interest rates.
There was a recent Wall Street Journal article, "How Utility Stocks Have Kept Their Spark"

"Sector isn’t cheapest place to park money, but right now a compelling enough argument seems to be that there are few alternatives"

Concluding paragraph:
With investors seemingly finding new worries around every corner lately, the forces holding the rest of the market back can make utilities look like a hidden jewel one moment and a lump of expensive coal in the next. In a softening stock market, though, these power lines are starting to look stretched.
Article link
Fremdon Ferndock
Posts: 1181
Joined: Fri Dec 24, 2021 11:26 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Fremdon Ferndock »

It's not the bear that's the real problem -- it's the bear that goes into it's cave to hibernate and never comes back out.
"Risk is what’s left over when you think you’ve thought of everything." ~ Morgan Housel
smooth_rough
Posts: 793
Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:14 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by smooth_rough »

Robot Monster wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:56 am
smooth_rough wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 10:48 am
Beensabu wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:40 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:11 pm So other than oil/energy, is any other sector doing well for the rest of 2022?
Utilities sure seem to have been the little engine that could for some time (decades) now. I'd imagine that'll continue until whenever they start to go state-owned. Of course, that's just my imagination.
Vanguard utilites index fund looks interesting. Low cost fee. Behaves like ETF with low tax exposure. Dividend 3% now. Benefits from the pop in nat gas prices, with increasing clean tech component. While EVs are only going to drive demand for more juice from the power grid. Nice alternative to bonds over time which bounce around with the interest rates.
There was a recent Wall Street Journal article, "How Utility Stocks Have Kept Their Spark"

"Sector isn’t cheapest place to park money, but right now a compelling enough argument seems to be that there are few alternatives"

Concluding paragraph:
With investors seemingly finding new worries around every corner lately, the forces holding the rest of the market back can make utilities look like a hidden jewel one moment and a lump of expensive coal in the next. In a softening stock market, though, these power lines are starting to look stretched.
Article link
Vanguard utility index fund seems to return fairly stable 9% over 5 years. But past is not always prologue.
bagastuff
Posts: 137
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2022 7:38 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by bagastuff »

utilities have a weirdly high PE ratio. Is it because of regulatory moat and consistent dividends?

Also, fomc minute notes are out and I don't see any immediate price action except a brief moment of panic selling. r2d2 can't figure out whether to pump or dump
alfaspider
Posts: 4816
Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 4:44 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alfaspider »

bagastuff wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 1:17 pm utilities have a weirdly high PE ratio. Is it because of regulatory moat and consistent dividends?

Also, fomc minute notes are out and I don't see any immediate price action except a brief moment of panic selling. r2d2 can't figure out whether to pump or dump
Yes. The profits of regulated utilities are pretty much guaranteed, so investors don't price as much risk in.
atdharris
Posts: 2091
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

Here comes more rate hikes faster than anticipated. Interesting to see what happens tomorrow. SQQQ feels tempting, but perhaps the market will rally if it feels the Fed will act more aggressively to tame inflation? Who knows.
marcopolo
Posts: 8445
Joined: Sat Dec 03, 2016 9:22 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

atdharris wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 1:24 pm Here comes more rate hikes faster than anticipated. Interesting to see what happens tomorrow. SQQQ feels tempting, but perhaps the market will rally if it feels the Fed will act more aggressively to tame inflation? Who knows.
The market might rally, or it might tank.
Either way, there will be people claiming it was "obvious"
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
elderwise
Posts: 836
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2016 10:27 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by elderwise »

atdharris wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 1:24 pm Here comes more rate hikes faster than anticipated. Interesting to see what happens tomorrow. SQQQ feels tempting, but perhaps the market will rally if it feels the Fed will act more aggressively to tame inflation? Who knows.
No idea why GME is up 30% yes 30% 🤓

We still have lot of froth ...
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