It has always been rough these days
U.S. stocks in free fall
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
And how is FB stock related to snap? Are they a major share holder?drk wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 5:23 pmSnap with the Wile E. Coyote effect:
SNAP wrote: Since we issued guidance on April 21, 2022, the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated. As a result, we believe it is likely that we will report revenue and adjusted EBITDA below the low end of our Q2 2022 guidance range. We remain excited about the long-term opportunity to grow our business. Our community continues to grow, and we continue to see strong engagement across Snapchat, and continue to see significant opportunities to grow our average revenue per user over the long term.
It seems anything is gonna tank techs these days....
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I also doubt SNAP is causing futures to tank... what do I know.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
They're direct competitors in the digital advertising business. Bad news for one (e.g., the advertising business has deteriorated way faster than we expected one month ago) is bad news for the other.
Honestly, in hindsight, this news should have been clear given the bad news from retailers last week.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Sounds like contagion. But these are big drops, not 5% drops on a miss. Looks like the market has further to drop.elderwise wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 7:14 pmAnd how is FB stock related to snap? Are they a major share holder?drk wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 5:23 pmSnap with the Wile E. Coyote effect:
SNAP wrote: Since we issued guidance on April 21, 2022, the macroeconomic environment has deteriorated further and faster than anticipated. As a result, we believe it is likely that we will report revenue and adjusted EBITDA below the low end of our Q2 2022 guidance range. We remain excited about the long-term opportunity to grow our business. Our community continues to grow, and we continue to see strong engagement across Snapchat, and continue to see significant opportunities to grow our average revenue per user over the long term.
It seems anything is gonna tank techs these days....
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You would think the advertising business would boom if businesses were hurting and needed to increase marketing spend to attract more customers.drk wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 7:20 pmThey're direct competitors in the digital advertising business. Bad news for one (e.g., the advertising business has deteriorated way faster than we expected one month ago) is bad news for the other.
Honestly, in hindsight, this news should have been clear given the bad news from retailers last week.
Why would ad spend suddenly vanish?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If you're margins are shrinking, then your advertising budget is also shrinking.Hola wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 8:15 pmYou would think the advertising business would boom if businesses were hurting and needed to increase marketing spend to attract more customers.drk wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 7:20 pmThey're direct competitors in the digital advertising business. Bad news for one (e.g., the advertising business has deteriorated way faster than we expected one month ago) is bad news for the other.
Honestly, in hindsight, this news should have been clear given the bad news from retailers last week.
Why would ad spend suddenly vanish?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If customers are spending less overall, and low-margin goods comprise more of their basket, it doesn't make sense to pay as much to get them in the door.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
-
- Posts: 978
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:59 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
One thing I like about tech & advertising is high profit margins. They have significant room to reduce their ad fees. Out of all the sectors I feel that tech is hit least by high input costs. Sure rate hikes are bad for long-duration, but once we're past rate hikes and normalize to a higher than 2% inflation level, I'd want to be invested in companies with low input costs or inelastic demand. That's my bullish sentiment on tech - not particularly one I'd go all in on but I've been nibbling a little.
Last edited by strummer6969 on Mon May 23, 2022 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Also it's weird but.Hola wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 8:15 pmYou would think the advertising business would boom if businesses were hurting and needed to increase marketing spend to attract more customers.drk wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 7:20 pmThey're direct competitors in the digital advertising business. Bad news for one (e.g., the advertising business has deteriorated way faster than we expected one month ago) is bad news for the other.
Honestly, in hindsight, this news should have been clear given the bad news from retailers last week.
Why would ad spend suddenly vanish?
If my competitor is withering or losing $ I would think that is a boon or pro point for me..
Not sure why SNAps bad forecast means dark times for FB too unless there is more than what is obvious beneath the surface.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Logic just doesnt work in stock market.elderwise wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 9:04 pmAlso it's weird but.Hola wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 8:15 pmYou would think the advertising business would boom if businesses were hurting and needed to increase marketing spend to attract more customers.drk wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 7:20 pmThey're direct competitors in the digital advertising business. Bad news for one (e.g., the advertising business has deteriorated way faster than we expected one month ago) is bad news for the other.
Honestly, in hindsight, this news should have been clear given the bad news from retailers last week.
Why would ad spend suddenly vanish?
If my competitor is withering or losing $ I would think that is a boon or pro point for me..
Not sure why SNAps bad forecast means dark times for FB too unless there is more than what is obvious beneath the surface.
-
- Posts: 11
- Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:18 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
All this red from SNAP?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
snap just snapped our stocks
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Probably because it means TikTok is eating all their lunches, not just one of their luncheselderwise wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 9:04 pmAlso it's weird but.Hola wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 8:15 pmYou would think the advertising business would boom if businesses were hurting and needed to increase marketing spend to attract more customers.drk wrote: ↑Mon May 23, 2022 7:20 pmThey're direct competitors in the digital advertising business. Bad news for one (e.g., the advertising business has deteriorated way faster than we expected one month ago) is bad news for the other.
Honestly, in hindsight, this news should have been clear given the bad news from retailers last week.
Why would ad spend suddenly vanish?
If my competitor is withering or losing $ I would think that is a boon or pro point for me..
Not sure why SNAps bad forecast means dark times for FB too unless there is more than what is obvious beneath the surface.
Crom laughs at your Four Winds
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Meta heading for a P/E ratio of 10 : ) This all feels rather silly.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
-
- Posts: 978
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:59 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Over $40 billion cash on hand, I would love them to use half of it for buybacks. That plus they could shave 10-15,000 employees.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
10-15k layoff would be a blow to the market. All those people would have no money for spending or for playing the stock market.z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:12 amOver $40 billion cash on hand, I would love them to use half of it for buybacks. That plus they could shave 10-15,000 employees.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
So Meta drops 8% because of Snapchat? And they have a PE of something like 12? Kind of dumb. I already own shares but even I am considering buying a little more.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm guessing its just because they're basically in the same field (advertising with a side interest in social media). Also perhaps the economic outlook is changing so dynamically that just the time between FB's last earnings and SNAP's is showing rapidly deteriorating data? I don't have the time to look up FB's last earnings call but even if it was a week ago the shear difference in the numbers might be enough to freak the market out considering the theme of the last couple weeks.
-
- Posts: 1830
- Joined: Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:08 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Perhaps today we will officially be in the bear market, unlike Friday's tease.
45% Total Stock Market | 52% Consumer Staples | 3% Short Term Reserves
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
We enter the doors to bear haven II.homebuyer6426 wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:43 am Perhaps today we will officially be in the bear market, unlike Friday's tease.
And ain't no J Pow to back us up. LORD save us.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I could see things deteriorating for the smaller players in the space to be sure, but if anything, advertisers will continue buying space on Meta/Google. A 10% drop for Meta today merely because Snap, who is a small player, just seems like an overreaction.ClassII wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:39 amI'm guessing its just because they're basically in the same field (advertising with a side interest in social media). Also perhaps the economic outlook is changing so dynamically that just the time between FB's last earnings and SNAP's is showing rapidly deteriorating data? I don't have the time to look up FB's last earnings call but even if it was a week ago the shear difference in the numbers might be enough to freak the market out considering the theme of the last couple weeks.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Fair assessment, of course this being a financial forum there's only one way to literally put your money where your mouth is.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Falling just like clockwork, you would think people would expect more bad news in this environment and not to trust dead-cat bounces.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yes. I am growing tired of these fake bounces each time the S&P approaches -20%. Just get us to the bear market alreadyhomebuyer6426 wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:43 am Perhaps today we will officially be in the bear market, unlike Friday's tease.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
So much in this thread about “pump”, “fake”, “bots” and the like — as if nefarious forces are at work. Market is just volatile right now as people trying to get more clarity on what the future holds for earnings.atdharris wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:50 amYes. I am growing tired of these fake bounces each time the S&P approaches -20%. Just get us to the bear market alreadyhomebuyer6426 wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:43 am Perhaps today we will officially be in the bear market, unlike Friday's tease.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Is official bear territory SPx 3800 or 3850?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
In theory there might be a lot of limit orders right at the -20% mark which is causing a lot of buying right when it touches. It might take a while for those buyers to be exhausted and we drop from there.atdharris wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:50 amYes. I am growing tired of these fake bounces each time the S&P approaches -20%. Just get us to the bear market alreadyhomebuyer6426 wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:43 am Perhaps today we will officially be in the bear market, unlike Friday's tease.
- TheTimeLord
- Posts: 12130
- Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Seems like a great time to have an investment plan.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
- TheTimeLord
- Posts: 12130
- Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I have it as a close below 3837.25
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Why the rush? Just VTI and chill. At least I don't race to the red lights.atdharris wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:50 amYes. I am growing tired of these fake bounces each time the S&P approaches -20%. Just get us to the bear market alreadyhomebuyer6426 wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:43 am Perhaps today we will officially be in the bear market, unlike Friday's tease.
Time is the ultimate currency.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Less than .01% of the US workforce. They will find new jobs and are already pretty wealthy. I am just tired of paying for their $600,000 salaries to run a single social-media web page that isn't all that great looking.gougou wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:30 am10-15k layoff would be a blow to the market. All those people would have no money for spending or for playing the stock market.z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:12 amOver $40 billion cash on hand, I would love them to use half of it for buybacks. That plus they could shave 10-15,000 employees.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Wow the 8% drop in GOOG. It’s getting more and more attractive by the day, if it can maintain its earnings. Technical chart still looks awful but I smell some opportunities coming soon.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
A smart person recently said that a bear market is a process, not a point on a chart.
- TheTimeLord
- Posts: 12130
- Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Just answering the question asked, obviously there is no real difference in a 19.9% drop and a 20.1% but as humans we like to give things definitions and names. We also love round numbers.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
just FYI (which you already know)- Meta runs facebook, which is a collection of many different products for global consumers, public figures, and advertisers, as well as Instagram and What'sApp. It's not like it's just the original FB website with a friends list and comment wall.z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 9:19 amLess than .01% of the US workforce. They will find new jobs and are already pretty wealthy. I am just tired of paying for their $600,000 salaries to run a single social-media web page that isn't all that great looking.gougou wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:30 am10-15k layoff would be a blow to the market. All those people would have no money for spending or for playing the stock market.z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:12 amOver $40 billion cash on hand, I would love them to use half of it for buybacks. That plus they could shave 10-15,000 employees.
Crom laughs at your Four Winds
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Ha, true enough.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 9:34 amJust answering the question asked, obviously there is no real difference in a 19.9% drop and a 20.1% but as humans we like to give things definitions and names. We also love round numbers.
It's funny because what if it drops to 3837, and the next day it's 3840? Does that mean the bear market is over?
-
- Posts: 11
- Joined: Fri Jul 02, 2021 7:18 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think we humans like to impart meaning and significance, as well. Even to something like random numbers going up and down (mostly down nowadays).TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 9:34 am
Just answering the question asked, obviously there is no real difference in a 19.9% drop and a 20.1% but as humans we like to give things definitions and names. We also love round numbers.
- peskypesky
- Posts: 1023
- Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 7:56 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I wouldn't complain. We're heading into a recession, and the market is giving people a chance to get out before things get worse. This is far better than a fast crash.atdharris wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:50 amYes. I am growing tired of these fake bounces each time the S&P approaches -20%. Just get us to the bear market alreadyhomebuyer6426 wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:43 am Perhaps today we will officially be in the bear market, unlike Friday's tease.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's an advertiser too. But it's revenue stream is more diversified than SNAP and FB.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No. This is worse since you have no idea when it ends. I much prefer a quick drop and quick rebound, rather than a slow grind down.peskypesky wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 9:52 amI wouldn't complain. We're heading into a recession, and the market is giving people a chance to get out before things get worse. This is far better than a fast crash.atdharris wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:50 amYes. I am growing tired of these fake bounces each time the S&P approaches -20%. Just get us to the bear market alreadyhomebuyer6426 wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:43 am Perhaps today we will officially be in the bear market, unlike Friday's tease.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I rather have a fast severe crash like 2020, even if recovery is long.peskypesky wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 9:52 amI wouldn't complain. We're heading into a recession, and the market is giving people a chance to get out before things get worse. This is far better than a fast crash.atdharris wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:50 amYes. I am growing tired of these fake bounces each time the S&P approaches -20%. Just get us to the bear market alreadyhomebuyer6426 wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 8:43 am Perhaps today we will officially be in the bear market, unlike Friday's tease.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think there is a huge proverbial wall of buy limit at spx -20.5 or 21, once we breach 23% down we go down down fast and furious style.
Then we won't have any bargain dip buyers..this feels worse than 2020.. as we sorta kinda know we are heading into a definite recession.
Hold your horses and your inverse funds
Then we won't have any bargain dip buyers..this feels worse than 2020.. as we sorta kinda know we are heading into a definite recession.
Hold your horses and your inverse funds
- peskypesky
- Posts: 1023
- Joined: Fri Mar 08, 2013 7:56 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Although this does seem to be the case, I don't quite understand it. I have yet to find another social network with the functionality of Facebook, where you can make a post with text (as short or as long as you want), a photo (or multiple photos), a video, or links to newspaper and magazine articles, or other people's Faebook posts.
If there is another one that provides that much functionality, I haven't seen it. The others seem so limited to me.
- TheTimeLord
- Posts: 12130
- Joined: Fri Jul 26, 2013 2:05 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
To make it more confusing, some definitions require that the 20% decline persists for a period of time like 2 months not just hit the number.Tom_T wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 9:51 amHa, true enough.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 9:34 amJust answering the question asked, obviously there is no real difference in a 19.9% drop and a 20.1% but as humans we like to give things definitions and names. We also love round numbers.
It's funny because what if it drops to 3837, and the next day it's 3840? Does that mean the bear market is over?
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
When "Buy the [expletive removed by admin LadyGeek] Dip" mentality is a thing of the past, then we will be close to bottoming.elderwise wrote: ↑Tue May 24, 2022 9:55 am I think there is a huge proverbial wall of buy limit at spx -20.5 or 21, once we breach 23% down we go down down fast and furious style.
Then we won't have any bargain dip buyers..this feels worse than 2020.. as we sorta kinda know we are heading into a definite recession.
Hold your horses and your inverse funds
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Slow grinding is always worse emotionally vs flash crash like 2010 or 2020..
Feels like 07 before the panic set in..yeah no sub prime crises but too much QE and near zero interest rates may have well pushed us into.
Feels like 07 before the panic set in..yeah no sub prime crises but too much QE and near zero interest rates may have well pushed us into.