U.S. stocks in free fall

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rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 9:56 am
rockstar wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 9:51 am
z3r0c00l wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 7:50 am Meta heading for a P/E ratio of 10 : ) This all feels rather silly.
Meta is going the way of MySpace. It's becoming the 8 track of social networks. Old people use it. And Instagram is heading in that direction next.
Although this does seem to be the case, I don't quite understand it. I have yet to find another social network with the functionality of Facebook, where you can make a post with text (as short or as long as you want), a photo (or multiple photos), a video, or links to newspaper and magazine articles, or other people's Faebook posts.

If there is another one that provides that much functionality, I haven't seen it. The others seem so limited to me.
It has to fit the generation that uses it. And since we're going retro like 70s with inflation, nobody used social networks back then. It might actually become a thing to not use one.

But to get back to thread, it looks like a massive repricing.
notBobToo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by notBobToo »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:51 am
strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:21 am Inflation will be transitory, they said. The economy is strong, they said.
"The market is efficient" they said. "Everything is priced" in they said.
Yes, yes, yes. 100 times yes. And let's not forget the Mother of all they said: "Buy bonds so you can sleep at night."
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

This thread is the worst. No wonder people pull out and panic. Arm chair experts in here... :oops:
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exodusNH
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by exodusNH »

csmath wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:37 am
exodusNH wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:04 am
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:02 am
Keenobserver wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:58 am Should we really be bracing for 08 repeat? What can pull the rug the same as 08?
Could be more like 1929.

That's the sense I'm getting.
It's too bad we learned nothing from 1929 and made no changes to our financial markets.
You should start a new thread about how nothing was learned from 1929 and explain what lessons should have been learned and what actions should have been taken that haven’t been.

It doesn’t belong in this thread but it might be interesting. Not sure how to make it actionable though.
I was being ironic. Claiming now could be a repeat of 1929 is ridiculous. Could it drop 80%? Sure. But the reasons would be very different.
strummer6969
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by strummer6969 »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:39 am
strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:25 am Consider yourself lucky if you pulled out because of expected rate hikes but don't fool yourself into thinking you predicted the full magnitude of this bear market.
Maybe it was luck, but this was my post from February 6:
peskypesky wrote: Fri Feb 04, 2022 12:09 am
Beensabu wrote: Thu Feb 03, 2022 11:10 pm
squirm wrote: Thu Feb 03, 2022 10:41 pm I have this feeling the fed will cave....
They won't. They can't. It would be almost negligently short-sighted.

I do wonder how many people have a similar feeling though. It's going to be quite the shock for some of them.
This is why I don't think it's priced in. Way too many people convinced the Fed won't act.
Right, that was before the Ukraine war and China lockdowns. And also it would only be fair to post predictions that worked out if you also post your predictions that didn't. You can't cherry pick.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AnalogKid22 »

Abercrombie and Fitch down over 30% today.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

lostdog wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:44 am This thread is the worst. No wonder people pull out and panic. Arm chair experts in here... :oops:
And this is happening when the market is down less than 20% from the ATH.
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rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

AnalogKid22 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:47 am Abercrombie and Fitch down over 30% today.
I shopped at Hot Topic and the Alley.

Retail is bad right now. How are airlines doing?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by csmath »

exodusNH wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:44 am
csmath wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:37 am
exodusNH wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:04 am
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:02 am
Keenobserver wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:58 am Should we really be bracing for 08 repeat? What can pull the rug the same as 08?
Could be more like 1929.

That's the sense I'm getting.
It's too bad we learned nothing from 1929 and made no changes to our financial markets.
You should start a new thread about how nothing was learned from 1929 and explain what lessons should have been learned and what actions should have been taken that haven’t been.

It doesn’t belong in this thread but it might be interesting. Not sure how to make it actionable though.
I was being ironic. Claiming now could be a repeat of 1929 is ridiculous. Could it drop 80%? Sure. But the reasons would be very different.
You mean “sarcastic” instead of “ironic” right?

In that case, I appreciate the sarcasm and was ready to pounce on the “nothing has changed” since 1929 stance.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by blarg »

TheTimeLord wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:47 am
lostdog wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:44 am This thread is the worst. No wonder people pull out and panic. Arm chair experts in here... :oops:
And this is happening when the market is down less than 20% from the ATH.
I'm getting the impression that a lot of folks really didn't believe they could lose money investing. I suppose the longest bull run in history wipes away a lot of memories.
trirunner
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by trirunner »

blarg wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:54 am
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:47 am
lostdog wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:44 am This thread is the worst. No wonder people pull out and panic. Arm chair experts in here... :oops:
And this is happening when the market is down less than 20% from the ATH.
I'm getting the impression that a lot of folks really didn't believe they could lose money investing. I suppose the longest bull run in history wipes away a lot of memories.
^, the reason the run up is probably a market euphoria bubble and will end badly...
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Wannaretireearly »

Snap leading a lot of tech/ad dependent stocks down. Pinterest down 20%! Very glad I’m in index funds right now.

Stock based income will be way down in the Bay Area. Who knows, but the impacts could be quicker than anyone predicts (job tightening, house price declines) etc
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lazydavid »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:53 am I've been wondering when the housing market would wake up and smell the coffee:

New home sales plunge in April
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/new-home ... 50122.html
30-year mortgage rates surged from 4% to 6% in just over a month, and home sales slowed? I'm shocked, SHOCKED I tell you. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by z3r0c00l »

Wannaretireearly wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:57 am Snap leading a lot of tech/ad dependent stocks down. Pinterest down 20%! Very glad I’m in index funds right now.

Stock based income will be way down in the Bay Area. Who knows, but the impacts could be quicker than anyone predicts (job tightening, house price declines) etc
The second tech bubble (TBII) has clearly burst, not quite as bad as the first and I expect many of these companies will survive this time around.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by mrspock »

Wannaretireearly wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:57 am Snap leading a lot of tech/ad dependent stocks down. Pinterest down 20%! Very glad I’m in index funds right now.

Stock based income will be way down in the Bay Area. Who knows, but the impacts could be quicker than anyone predicts (job tightening, house price declines) etc
Don’t celebrate too quick, most of us are comp’d by a set value in dollars being converted to stock. So over time it rights itself. When we turn our ships around, income can (will?) actually soar well beyond 2021 levels without ever hitting the highs of 2021.

So us old timers actually don’t mind this too much. We will probably make out like bandits by buying up assets on the cheap, and then having massive pay days once the market recovers because we got tons of stock issued at very low valuations.
dertere
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dertere »

strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:58 am Works most of the time. 1928 to 1954 and 1965 to 1982 were pretty rough. 0 returns and negative inflation-adjusted returns, even if you DCA'd. Ditto 2000-2013, except returns kept up with inflation since we had such little of it. The good news I guess is that if you (or your heirs) hold it long enough you won't "lose" your money, even in the worst of historical situations.
Do you have a source I could read on the 1928-54 period? My understanding was that if you continued to periodically invest and reinvested any dividends, you would have been whole much sooner. Of course, that's if you kept your job and ignoring the fact that it wasn't possible to simply buy the market, so you had much more concentration risk as a matter of course.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ClassII »

I guess if I want to predict the next "Bear Stearns" event (knowing full well what a fool's errand that is), I'd say corporate debt is going to be where things start to fall apart once this bear market and Fed tightening does it's thing. It's pretty well established that a lot of companies are completely up to their eyeballs in debt right now. Doing things like stock buy-backs and dividends on the backs of taking on low-interest loans and all before Covid, no less. Some companies did phenomenally in the last 2 years but quite a few did little to fix their debt load (or even took on more thanks to the government's covid programs). But now, with rates going up and the economy contracting it's going to make refinancing that debt extremely difficult. Those cows will come home to roost and we might start to see even some big name companies declare bankruptcy due to inability to refinance.

But again, if the next 2008 is coming we're still way back in 2007 at the moment. A truly boring, normal correction of the stock market. Whether it tips into something more severe and how exactly that'll happen is anyone's guess. But it is fun placing innocent bets (at least for now).
Last edited by ClassII on Tue May 24, 2022 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by xraygoggles »

Tech imploding once again, and Tesla now at 630s, but PE still at 85. Would not be surprised to see a 50-70% drop from here through this year.
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rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

ClassII wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:10 pm I guess if I want to predict the next "Bear Stearns" event (knowing full well what a fool's errand that is), I'd say corporate debt is going to be where things start to fall apart once this bear market and Fed tightening does it's thing. It's pretty well established that a lot of companies are completely up to their eyeballs in debt right now. Doing things like stock buy-backs and dividends on the backs of taking on low-interest loans and all before Covid, no less. Some companies did phenomenally in the last 2 years but quite a few did little to fix their debt load (or even took on more thanks to the government's covid programs). But now, with rates going up and the economy contracting it's going to make refinancing that debt extremely difficult. Those cows will come home to roost and we might start to see even some big name companies declare bankruptcy due to inability to refinance.

But again, if the next 2008 is coming we're still way back in 2007 at the moment. A truly boring, normal correction of the stock market. Whether it tips into something more severe and how exactly that'll happen is anyone's guess. But it is fun placing innocent bets (at least for now).
Refinancing debt is going to get expensive. However, if things get bad, the Fed will end up cutting anyway.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by trirunner »

rockstar wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:14 pm
ClassII wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:10 pm I guess if I want to predict the next "Bear Stearns" event (knowing full well what a fool's errand that is), I'd say corporate debt is going to be where things start to fall apart once this bear market and Fed tightening does it's thing. It's pretty well established that a lot of companies are completely up to their eyeballs in debt right now. Doing things like stock buy-backs and dividends on the backs of taking on low-interest loans and all before Covid, no less. Some companies did phenomenally in the last 2 years but quite a few did little to fix their debt load (or even took on more thanks to the government's covid programs). But now, with rates going up and the economy contracting it's going to make refinancing that debt extremely difficult. Those cows will come home to roost and we might start to see even some big name companies declare bankruptcy due to inability to refinance.

But again, if the next 2008 is coming we're still way back in 2007 at the moment. A truly boring, normal correction of the stock market. Whether it tips into something more severe and how exactly that'll happen is anyone's guess. But it is fun placing innocent bets (at least for now).
Refinancing debt is going to get expensive. However, if things get bad, the Fed will end up cutting anyway.
Maybe not if inflation stays up, see Volcker and 1980s
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by blarg »

rockstar wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:14 pm
ClassII wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:10 pm I guess if I want to predict the next "Bear Stearns" event (knowing full well what a fool's errand that is), I'd say corporate debt is going to be where things start to fall apart once this bear market and Fed tightening does it's thing. It's pretty well established that a lot of companies are completely up to their eyeballs in debt right now. Doing things like stock buy-backs and dividends on the backs of taking on low-interest loans and all before Covid, no less. Some companies did phenomenally in the last 2 years but quite a few did little to fix their debt load (or even took on more thanks to the government's covid programs). But now, with rates going up and the economy contracting it's going to make refinancing that debt extremely difficult. Those cows will come home to roost and we might start to see even some big name companies declare bankruptcy due to inability to refinance.

But again, if the next 2008 is coming we're still way back in 2007 at the moment. A truly boring, normal correction of the stock market. Whether it tips into something more severe and how exactly that'll happen is anyone's guess. But it is fun placing innocent bets (at least for now).
Refinancing debt is going to get expensive. However, if things get bad, the Fed will end up cutting anyway.
And there's the moral hazard the Fed's past actions have created, which is what led to the rampant speculation of the past few years.

I don't think they can or will try to prop up the market this time. Runaway inflation is a much more serious problem than a recession.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by burritoLover »

So when do all the Robinhooders get margin calls for their leveraged TSLA positions?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alfaspider »

ClassII wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:10 pm I guess if I want to predict the next "Bear Stearns" event (knowing full well what a fool's errand that is), I'd say corporate debt is going to be where things start to fall apart once this bear market and Fed tightening does it's thing. It's pretty well established that a lot of companies are completely up to their eyeballs in debt right now. Doing things like stock buy-backs and dividends on the backs of taking on low-interest loans and all before Covid, no less. Some companies did phenomenally in the last 2 years but quite a few did little to fix their debt load (or even took on more thanks to the government's covid programs). But now, with rates going up and the economy contracting it's going to make refinancing that debt extremely difficult. Those cows will come home to roost and we might start to see even some big name companies declare bankruptcy due to inability to refinance.

But again, if the next 2008 is coming we're still way back in 2007 at the moment. A truly boring, normal correction of the stock market. Whether it tips into something more severe and how exactly that'll happen is anyone's guess. But it is fun placing innocent bets (at least for now).
But inflation actually provides relief from debts because it cuts the real value of the debt. It's only a problem if you need new debt (which would have to be at a much higher interest rate). In fact, there's a huge disincentive against paying down existing debts right now because those loans are typically at sub-inflation rates.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

alfaspider wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:24 pm
ClassII wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:10 pm I guess if I want to predict the next "Bear Stearns" event (knowing full well what a fool's errand that is), I'd say corporate debt is going to be where things start to fall apart once this bear market and Fed tightening does it's thing. It's pretty well established that a lot of companies are completely up to their eyeballs in debt right now. Doing things like stock buy-backs and dividends on the backs of taking on low-interest loans and all before Covid, no less. Some companies did phenomenally in the last 2 years but quite a few did little to fix their debt load (or even took on more thanks to the government's covid programs). But now, with rates going up and the economy contracting it's going to make refinancing that debt extremely difficult. Those cows will come home to roost and we might start to see even some big name companies declare bankruptcy due to inability to refinance.

But again, if the next 2008 is coming we're still way back in 2007 at the moment. A truly boring, normal correction of the stock market. Whether it tips into something more severe and how exactly that'll happen is anyone's guess. But it is fun placing innocent bets (at least for now).
But inflation actually provides relief from debts because it cuts the real value of the debt. It's only a problem if you need new debt (which would have to be at a much higher interest rate). In fact, there's a huge disincentive against paying down existing debts right now because those loans are typically at sub-inflation rates.
Not if you're a business that can't raise prices. Then inflation is a problem debt wise. Wages are going up, so margins are getting crushed for businesses that can't raise prices without negatively impacting demand. Buffett did a great write-up on inflation and how it impact corporations in one of his letters to shareholders back in the early 80s. It's definitely worth reading.

I expect this repricing of risk to continue. However, it does feel good that the 10 year has stabilized for now and that you can buy 10 year TIPS with positive real yields right now.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by exodusNH »

csmath wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:53 am
exodusNH wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:44 am
csmath wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:37 am
exodusNH wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:04 am
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:02 am

Could be more like 1929.

That's the sense I'm getting.
It's too bad we learned nothing from 1929 and made no changes to our financial markets.
You should start a new thread about how nothing was learned from 1929 and explain what lessons should have been learned and what actions should have been taken that haven’t been.

It doesn’t belong in this thread but it might be interesting. Not sure how to make it actionable though.
I was being ironic. Claiming now could be a repeat of 1929 is ridiculous. Could it drop 80%? Sure. But the reasons would be very different.
You mean “sarcastic” instead of “ironic” right?

In that case, I appreciate the sarcasm and was ready to pounce on the “nothing has changed” since 1929 stance.
Sarcasm is a subset of irony. Whether I was being sarcastic or employing Socratic irony is up the the reader.

All the people saying "I knew X!" have no idea what they're talking about. It's very easy to confuse strategy/luck with outcome.

You see the same thing in sportsball. Everyone knows more than the coaches.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

exodusNH wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:44 am
csmath wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:37 am
exodusNH wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:04 am
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:02 am
Keenobserver wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:58 am Should we really be bracing for 08 repeat? What can pull the rug the same as 08?
Could be more like 1929.

That's the sense I'm getting.
It's too bad we learned nothing from 1929 and made no changes to our financial markets.
You should start a new thread about how nothing was learned from 1929 and explain what lessons should have been learned and what actions should have been taken that haven’t been.

It doesn’t belong in this thread but it might be interesting. Not sure how to make it actionable though.
Could it drop 80%? Sure.
I rest my case.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by elderwise »

burritoLover wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:33 am
elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:27 am I felt stupid when I asked here to go all cash end of Jan went to stable fund. The 2020 to 22 returns were freaking crazy how often do you get +20% return on VTi or total stock alone? Not talking about gme tesla and other non sense ridiculous gains. Something has to give in..

Now maybe am not so dumb, am actually buying back in slowly maybe it's another senseless market timing endeavor but time will tell.

I have also felt everything is not being priced in .

But hey nobody knows nothin' 8-)
So you went to cash at the end of the following years too which had higher returns than 2020 and 2021?
VTI
2009 +28.89%
2013 +33.45%
2019 +30.67
Yes I am talking about something different.. I have never gone all cash before. Was maxing out 401k since quite long now all goes 100% index no bonds. Young so make it rain.

Tell me if we had a global pandemic, followed by Feds buying junk bonds, dropping rates to near 0, your RE primary home shooting up 50% would you be happy gloating about it or think how in the heck is this reasonable?

Look back at total return for 2020 and 21, it is unreal..I mean basically the stock market rode up on stupid monetary easing policies .. because of this dogecoin went up where you put 1k it became 70k in Jan 2021 tell me that's sane?

Even those who hold bonds Normally you avoid buying Junk bonds even tho the yield is so high cuz of their bad rating..

And here is the Fed marching and buying all that junk bond..

Is this what you mean priced in?

I do wish and hope our 401k reaches ATH soon. But sometimes the answer lies right in front of us

What is pure luck is that I exited end of Jan that may or may not be right..ideally would have been end of Dec ATH

But we also have inflation, geo political issues, covid supply chain issues in the mix...

I Also did not think we would dip as much as we did and the year is just starting..
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

mrspock wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:06 pm Don’t celebrate too quick, most of us are comp’d by a set value in dollars being converted to stock. So over time it rights itself. When we turn our ships around, income can (will?) actually soar well beyond 2021 levels without ever hitting the highs of 2021.

So us old timers actually don’t mind this too much. We will probably make out like bandits by buying up assets on the cheap, and then having massive pay days once the market recovers because we got tons of stock issued at very low valuations.
Right. Even the hiring freezes are coming with refresh grants to retain existing employees. There's a wide chasm between "we won't grow as much as we expected this year" and "our business has been vaporized" on the scale of bad news.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

TheTimeLord wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:47 am
lostdog wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:44 am This thread is the worst. No wonder people pull out and panic. Arm chair experts in here... :oops:
And this is happening when the market is down less than 20% from the ATH.
But headed further down.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by smooth_rough »

Wannaretireearly wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:57 am Snap leading a lot of tech/ad dependent stocks down. Pinterest down 20%! Very glad I’m in index funds right now.

Stock based income will be way down in the Bay Area. Who knows, but the impacts could be quicker than anyone predicts (job tightening, house price declines) etc
Musk is saying 20% of twitter is bot generated activity.

If so why would any other social media companies be different?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by elderwise »

smooth_rough wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:42 pm
Wannaretireearly wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:57 am Snap leading a lot of tech/ad dependent stocks down. Pinterest down 20%! Very glad I’m in index funds right now.

Stock based income will be way down in the Bay Area. Who knows, but the impacts could be quicker than anyone predicts (job tightening, house price declines) etc
Musk is saying 20% of twitter is bot generated activity.

If so why would any other social media companies be different?
Musk is a classic pump and dump, how ironic it would be that he tanks TWTR only to see his beloved tsla tanking to $200..

Life is hard..there is no denying he pumps coins stocks on purpose he did Doge pumping too 🤔
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by JS-Elcano »

strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:25 am
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:15 am
Tom_T wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:11 am
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:06 am
Tom_T wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:05 am
No, it isn't.
Yes it is.
No, it isn't. If you have some evidence that publicly-known information is being ignored by all market participants, as illogical as that is, then it's up to you to present it. Otherwise, it's not an actual debate. It's just you presenting an opinion that has no basis in fact.
There was publicly-known information that the Fed would be raising rates and tightening monetary policy in 2022. It was mostly ignored by all market participants. And when people like me tried to point it out, we were shouted down.

There is such a thing as market euphoria.

And remember this quote:
John Maynard Keynes: “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
Median returns one year following the Fed’s first rate hike are:
S&P 500 6.24%
Russell 1000 Value 3.91%
Russell 1000 Growth 3.58%
Russell 2000 11.30%

Source: https://www.putnam.com/advisor/content/ ... ing-cycles

What wasn't known is the Ukraine war which made things exponentially worse. Consider yourself lucky if you pulled out because of expected rate hikes but don't fool yourself into thinking you predicted the full magnitude of this bear market.
Yet, here I was in February saying that the war would be a big destabilizing factor, including the uncertainty that would surround it, and posters told me that wars are good for the economy and I didn't understand anything.
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burritoLover
Posts: 4097
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by burritoLover »

elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:34 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:33 am
elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:27 am I felt stupid when I asked here to go all cash end of Jan went to stable fund. The 2020 to 22 returns were freaking crazy how often do you get +20% return on VTi or total stock alone? Not talking about gme tesla and other non sense ridiculous gains. Something has to give in..

Now maybe am not so dumb, am actually buying back in slowly maybe it's another senseless market timing endeavor but time will tell.

I have also felt everything is not being priced in .

But hey nobody knows nothin' 8-)
So you went to cash at the end of the following years too which had higher returns than 2020 and 2021?
VTI
2009 +28.89%
2013 +33.45%
2019 +30.67
Yes I am talking about something different.. I have never gone all cash before. Was maxing out 401k since quite long now all goes 100% index no bonds. Young so make it rain.

Tell me if we had a global pandemic, followed by Feds buying junk bonds, dropping rates to near 0, your RE primary home shooting up 50% would you be happy gloating about it or think how in the heck is this reasonable?

Look back at total return for 2020 and 21, it is unreal..I mean basically the stock market rode up on stupid monetary easing policies .. because of this dogecoin went up where you put 1k it became 70k in Jan 2021 tell me that's sane?

Even those who hold bonds Normally you avoid buying Junk bonds even tho the yield is so high cuz of their bad rating..

And here is the Fed marching and buying all that junk bond..

Is this what you mean priced in?

I do wish and hope our 401k reaches ATH soon. But sometimes the answer lies right in front of us

What is pure luck is that I exited end of Jan that may or may not be right..ideally would have been end of Dec ATH

But we also have inflation, geo political issues, covid supply chain issues in the mix...

I Also did not think we would dip as much as we did and the year is just starting..
That all did not suddenly occur in Dec 2021 though. I think you got lucky in the timing. I would careful about thinking it was obvious because next time you think you know what is going to happen next - you get stuck in a market rapidly exploding upwards wondering when to get back in.
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ray.james
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by ray.james »

xraygoggles wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:11 pm Tech imploding once again, and Tesla now at 630s, but PE still at 85. Would not be surprised to see a 50-70% drop from here through this year.
I would be cautious on that bet. I was a Tesla bear but with current numbers, things can go either way. Tesla is selling at a much faster growth than other cars. Here is how its EPS went last few quarters: 0.98, 1.86, 2.54, 3.22. That is quarterly changes, not even annual. At the latest quarter eps, it is already at 50 P/E. If they continue on the trajectory and eps per quarter improves to $4, its P/E is at 40.

Some of its most profitable cars like Model X and Model S at 125k and 110K are now selling more than last year after Fremont factory retrofit.
https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/tesla-mod ... sa-canada/ . Look at model 3 production numbers progression and they are booked till early 2023.: https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/tesla-mod ... sa-canada/

I am not debating about the car quality or Musk. I have my own reservations on those things. But simply saying it is diminishing return bet at this pricepoint.
Last edited by ray.james on Tue May 24, 2022 12:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
smooth_rough
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by smooth_rough »

elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:45 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:42 pm
Wannaretireearly wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:57 am Snap leading a lot of tech/ad dependent stocks down. Pinterest down 20%! Very glad I’m in index funds right now.

Stock based income will be way down in the Bay Area. Who knows, but the impacts could be quicker than anyone predicts (job tightening, house price declines) etc
Musk is saying 20% of twitter is bot generated activity.

If so why would any other social media companies be different?
Musk is a classic pump and dump, how ironic it would be that he tanks TWTR only to see his beloved tsla tanking to $200..

Life is hard..there is no denying he pumps coins stocks on purpose he did Doge pumping too 🤔
That's not comparable. Crypto currency is more like speculating in gold, its different category from what is considered a productive asset. I wouldn't be surprised if companies like FB are littered with bot activity, just because its impossible to control at some level.
elderwise
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by elderwise »

burritoLover wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:50 pm
elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:34 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:33 am
elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:27 am I felt stupid when I asked here to go all cash end of Jan went to stable fund. The 2020 to 22 returns were freaking crazy how often do you get +20% return on VTi or total stock alone? Not talking about gme tesla and other non sense ridiculous gains. Something has to give in..

Now maybe am not so dumb, am actually buying back in slowly maybe it's another senseless market timing endeavor but time will tell.

I have also felt everything is not being priced in .

But hey nobody knows nothin' 8-)
So you went to cash at the end of the following years too which had higher returns than 2020 and 2021?
VTI
2009 +28.89%
2013 +33.45%
2019 +30.67
Yes I am talking about something different.. I have never gone all cash before. Was maxing out 401k since quite long now all goes 100% index no bonds. Young so make it rain.

Tell me if we had a global pandemic, followed by Feds buying junk bonds, dropping rates to near 0, your RE primary home shooting up 50% would you be happy gloating about it or think how in the heck is this reasonable?

Look back at total return for 2020 and 21, it is unreal..I mean basically the stock market rode up on stupid monetary easing policies .. because of this dogecoin went up where you put 1k it became 70k in Jan 2021 tell me that's sane?

Even those who hold bonds Normally you avoid buying Junk bonds even tho the yield is so high cuz of their bad rating..

And here is the Fed marching and buying all that junk bond..

Is this what you mean priced in?

I do wish and hope our 401k reaches ATH soon. But sometimes the answer lies right in front of us

What is pure luck is that I exited end of Jan that may or may not be right..ideally would have been end of Dec ATH

But we also have inflation, geo political issues, covid supply chain issues in the mix...

I Also did not think we would dip as much as we did and the year is just starting..
That all did not suddenly occur in Dec 2021 though. I think you got lucky in the timing. I would careful about thinking it was obvious because next time you think you know what is going to happen next - you get stuck in a market rapidly exploding upwards wondering when to get back in.
Yada Yada don't mix strategy with outcome. yes I take 0 credit for doing that in end of Jan and I admit I still could be wrong. Just dumb luck..takes two to exit timely, and buy back in timely.. but majority of my index purchases are way or much lower than my index vinix sell price am still making $.

And you are right it didn't suddenly happen in 2021 and also it could have tanked in 2023 also or 2024..

As luck had it my friend went all cash March 2020 before it tanked and got back in May Jun 2020 and made bank in his 401k he told me the same and I did not follow his advice saying we know nothing and market has priced it in.

So maybe am just trying to make up for that guilt if mine of 2020 🤪..
alfaspider
Posts: 4816
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alfaspider »

JS-Elcano wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:48 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:25 am
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:15 am
Tom_T wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:11 am
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:06 am

Yes it is.
No, it isn't. If you have some evidence that publicly-known information is being ignored by all market participants, as illogical as that is, then it's up to you to present it. Otherwise, it's not an actual debate. It's just you presenting an opinion that has no basis in fact.
There was publicly-known information that the Fed would be raising rates and tightening monetary policy in 2022. It was mostly ignored by all market participants. And when people like me tried to point it out, we were shouted down.

There is such a thing as market euphoria.

And remember this quote:
John Maynard Keynes: “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
Median returns one year following the Fed’s first rate hike are:
S&P 500 6.24%
Russell 1000 Value 3.91%
Russell 1000 Growth 3.58%
Russell 2000 11.30%

Source: https://www.putnam.com/advisor/content/ ... ing-cycles

What wasn't known is the Ukraine war which made things exponentially worse. Consider yourself lucky if you pulled out because of expected rate hikes but don't fool yourself into thinking you predicted the full magnitude of this bear market.
Yet, here I was in February saying that the war would be a big destabilizing factor, including the uncertainty that would surround it, and posters told me that wars are good for the economy and I didn't understand anything.
You probably misunderstood the message. The message is "nobody knows nothin." That doesn't mean predictions about the future will be wrong or they can't be based on reasonable assumptions or analysis.
User avatar
burritoLover
Posts: 4097
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by burritoLover »

elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:57 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:50 pm
elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:34 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:33 am
elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:27 am I felt stupid when I asked here to go all cash end of Jan went to stable fund. The 2020 to 22 returns were freaking crazy how often do you get +20% return on VTi or total stock alone? Not talking about gme tesla and other non sense ridiculous gains. Something has to give in..

Now maybe am not so dumb, am actually buying back in slowly maybe it's another senseless market timing endeavor but time will tell.

I have also felt everything is not being priced in .

But hey nobody knows nothin' 8-)
So you went to cash at the end of the following years too which had higher returns than 2020 and 2021?
VTI
2009 +28.89%
2013 +33.45%
2019 +30.67
Yes I am talking about something different.. I have never gone all cash before. Was maxing out 401k since quite long now all goes 100% index no bonds. Young so make it rain.

Tell me if we had a global pandemic, followed by Feds buying junk bonds, dropping rates to near 0, your RE primary home shooting up 50% would you be happy gloating about it or think how in the heck is this reasonable?

Look back at total return for 2020 and 21, it is unreal..I mean basically the stock market rode up on stupid monetary easing policies .. because of this dogecoin went up where you put 1k it became 70k in Jan 2021 tell me that's sane?

Even those who hold bonds Normally you avoid buying Junk bonds even tho the yield is so high cuz of their bad rating..

And here is the Fed marching and buying all that junk bond..

Is this what you mean priced in?

I do wish and hope our 401k reaches ATH soon. But sometimes the answer lies right in front of us

What is pure luck is that I exited end of Jan that may or may not be right..ideally would have been end of Dec ATH

But we also have inflation, geo political issues, covid supply chain issues in the mix...

I Also did not think we would dip as much as we did and the year is just starting..
That all did not suddenly occur in Dec 2021 though. I think you got lucky in the timing. I would careful about thinking it was obvious because next time you think you know what is going to happen next - you get stuck in a market rapidly exploding upwards wondering when to get back in.
Yada Yada don't mix strategy with outcome. yes I take 0 credit for doing that in end of Jan and I admit I still could be wrong. Just dumb luck..takes two to exit timely, and buy back in timely.. but majority of my index purchases are way or much lower than my index vinix sell price am still making $.

And you are right it didn't suddenly happen in 2021 and also it could have tanked in 2023 also or 2024..

As luck had it my friend went all cash March 2020 before it tanked and got back in May Jun 2020 and made bank in his 401k he told me the same and I did not follow his advice saying we know nothing and market has priced it in.

So maybe am just trying to make up for that guilt if mine of 2020 🤪..
So what's your strategy to buy back in?
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HomerJ
Posts: 21281
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by HomerJ »

strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:58 am
ClassII wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:33 am AKA the "this is why bogleheads's philosophy really works" thread.
Works most of the time. 1928 to 1954 and 1965 to 1982 were pretty rough. 0 returns and negative inflation-adjusted returns, even if you DCA'd. Ditto 2000-2013, except returns kept up with inflation since we had such little of it. The good news I guess is that if you (or your heirs) hold it long enough you won't "lose" your money, even in the worst of historical situations.
The above is incorrect.

Money invested in 1965 didn't return to even until 1982, and money invested in 2000 didn't return to even until 2013 (well technically, it returned to even in 2006-2007, then dropped again).

BUT, money invested DURING those periods did okay. So DCA absolutely worked.

Money invested in 2001, and 2002, and 2003, and 2004, etc. (Especially money invested in 2009!) made quite decent returns by 2013.

So it wasn't zero return from 2000-2013, even for DCA. Money invested DURING those bad periods had returns.

And then, of course, after the bad periods were over, stocks took off again, and you made so much in the following years, that it more than made up for all the bad years, even for the money invested at the previous tops in 1965 and 2000.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
elderwise
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by elderwise »

burritoLover wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:01 pm
elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:57 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:50 pm
elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:34 pm
burritoLover wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:33 am
So you went to cash at the end of the following years too which had higher returns than 2020 and 2021?
VTI
2009 +28.89%
2013 +33.45%
2019 +30.67
Yes I am talking about something different.. I have never gone all cash before. Was maxing out 401k since quite long now all goes 100% index no bonds. Young so make it rain.

Tell me if we had a global pandemic, followed by Feds buying junk bonds, dropping rates to near 0, your RE primary home shooting up 50% would you be happy gloating about it or think how in the heck is this reasonable?

Look back at total return for 2020 and 21, it is unreal..I mean basically the stock market rode up on stupid monetary easing policies .. because of this dogecoin went up where you put 1k it became 70k in Jan 2021 tell me that's sane?

Even those who hold bonds Normally you avoid buying Junk bonds even tho the yield is so high cuz of their bad rating..

And here is the Fed marching and buying all that junk bond..

Is this what you mean priced in?

I do wish and hope our 401k reaches ATH soon. But sometimes the answer lies right in front of us

What is pure luck is that I exited end of Jan that may or may not be right..ideally would have been end of Dec ATH

But we also have inflation, geo political issues, covid supply chain issues in the mix...

I Also did not think we would dip as much as we did and the year is just starting..
That all did not suddenly occur in Dec 2021 though. I think you got lucky in the timing. I would careful about thinking it was obvious because next time you think you know what is going to happen next - you get stuck in a market rapidly exploding upwards wondering when to get back in.
Yada Yada don't mix strategy with outcome. yes I take 0 credit for doing that in end of Jan and I admit I still could be wrong. Just dumb luck..takes two to exit timely, and buy back in timely.. but majority of my index purchases are way or much lower than my index vinix sell price am still making $.

And you are right it didn't suddenly happen in 2021 and also it could have tanked in 2023 also or 2024..

As luck had it my friend went all cash March 2020 before it tanked and got back in May Jun 2020 and made bank in his 401k he told me the same and I did not follow his advice saying we know nothing and market has priced it in.

So maybe am just trying to make up for that guilt if mine of 2020 🤪..
So what's your strategy to buy back in?
i have already started buying back in, not knowing what is bottom. all my purchases (index fund) are below my purchase price.and i have enough dry powder . i may not get it 100% right but i feel good about it.
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

smooth_rough wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:42 pm
Wannaretireearly wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:57 am Snap leading a lot of tech/ad dependent stocks down. Pinterest down 20%! Very glad I’m in index funds right now.

Stock based income will be way down in the Bay Area. Who knows, but the impacts could be quicker than anyone predicts (job tightening, house price declines) etc
Musk is saying 20% of twitter is bot generated activity.

If so why would any other social media companies be different?
Musk says a lot of stuff. Take what he says with a grain of salt. He's really good and convincing investors to transfer wealth to him.
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Doom&Gloom
Posts: 5417
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Doom&Gloom »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:37 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:47 am
lostdog wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:44 am This thread is the worst. No wonder people pull out and panic. Arm chair experts in here... :oops:
And this is happening when the market is down less than 20% from the ATH.
But headed further down.
Did someone mention irony?

The market may fluctuate, but this thread seems destined to be entertaining forever!
incognito_man
Posts: 169
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Location: Madison, WI

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by incognito_man »

All the EMH discussion reminded me of this joke:

Two economists are walking down the street.
Suddenly, one says to the other "Look! A $20 bill is just lying on the sidewalk!"
The other economist replies "That's impossible! If there was a $20 bill on the sidewalk, someone else would have already picked it up!"
strummer6969
Posts: 978
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:59 am

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by strummer6969 »

dertere wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:07 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:58 am Works most of the time. 1928 to 1954 and 1965 to 1982 were pretty rough. 0 returns and negative inflation-adjusted returns, even if you DCA'd. Ditto 2000-2013, except returns kept up with inflation since we had such little of it. The good news I guess is that if you (or your heirs) hold it long enough you won't "lose" your money, even in the worst of historical situations.
Do you have a source I could read on the 1928-54 period? My understanding was that if you continued to periodically invest and reinvested any dividends, you would have been whole much sooner. Of course, that's if you kept your job and ignoring the fact that it wasn't possible to simply buy the market, so you had much more concentration risk as a matter of course.
I just eyeballed the historical chart as the portfolio backtester can't go back that far. On the inflation adjusted basis the peaks and valleys are pretty symmetrical (i.e., spent as much time 'up' as 'down')
https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jo ... cal-chart

But apparently I didn't realize that that stocks paid 14% dividends on average back then. :shock: https://finance.zacks.com/1929-stock-ma ... -6003.html

Whew! I like thinking of worst-case scenarios, and it looks like the worst case historical scenario I could come up with wasn't really all that bad.
Last edited by strummer6969 on Tue May 24, 2022 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

It seems like there is hard resistance at the bear market threshold. Each time we seem to get there, the market bounces back. I presume a lot of algorithms begin buying at that level. I wonder how long that will hold before the dam bursts...
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:45 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:42 pm
Wannaretireearly wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:57 am Snap leading a lot of tech/ad dependent stocks down. Pinterest down 20%! Very glad I’m in index funds right now.

Stock based income will be way down in the Bay Area. Who knows, but the impacts could be quicker than anyone predicts (job tightening, house price declines) etc
Musk is saying 20% of twitter is bot generated activity.

If so why would any other social media companies be different?
Musk is a classic pump and dump, how ironic it would be that he tanks TWTR only to see his beloved tsla tanking to $200..

Life is hard..there is no denying he pumps coins stocks on purpose he did Doge pumping too 🤔
It's amazing to me that he's not behind bars for all the pump and dumps.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek »

The discussion is getting derailed on Elon Musk. As a reminder, see: Non-actionable (Trolling) Topics
If readers can't do anything with the content of a topic other than argue about it, it does not belong here. Examples include:
  • US or world economic, political, tax, health care and climate policies
  • conspiracy theories of any type
  • discussions of the crimes, shortcomings or stupidity of other people, whether they be political figures, celebrities, CEOs, Fed chairmen, subprime mortgage borrowers, lottery winners, federal "bailout" recipients, poor people, rich people, etc. Of course, you are welcome to talk about the stupid financial things you have done.
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elderwise
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by elderwise »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:16 pm
elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:45 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 12:42 pm
Wannaretireearly wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:57 am Snap leading a lot of tech/ad dependent stocks down. Pinterest down 20%! Very glad I’m in index funds right now.

Stock based income will be way down in the Bay Area. Who knows, but the impacts could be quicker than anyone predicts (job tightening, house price declines) etc
Musk is saying 20% of twitter is bot generated activity.

If so why would any other social media companies be different?
Musk is a classic pump and dump, how ironic it would be that he tanks TWTR only to see his beloved tsla tanking to $200..

Life is hard..there is no denying he pumps coins stocks on purpose he did Doge pumping too 🤔
It's amazing to me that he's not behind bars for all the pump and dumps.
SEC fines to musk are a slap on the wrist...and how many pension funds must be heavy in TSLA...too big to fail for the greater American economy...

he blatantly does stuff without any repercussionss.. the 5% twttr thing was supposedly part of their NDA...

and our stock market is grinding..

@atdharris i think your right something holds us at 20% then we go up...for now that seems to be the floor.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:24 pm @atdharris i think your right something holds us at 20% then we go up...for now that seems to be the floor.
I pray that -20% is the floor.

What are the latest scores for consumer sentiment?
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peskypesky
Posts: 1023
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

"UK Consumer Confidence Falls to Its Lowest Level Since 1970s"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ince-1970s

"Consumer sentiment in Canada posts biggest drop since pandemic onset amid inflation"
https://www.investmentexecutive.com/new ... inflation/

"Global consumer confidence remains on a downward path"
https://www.ipsos.com/en/global-consume ... x-may-2022

:(
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