Duelnature wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 12:43 pm
Bear market at 3837, correct?
I thought it was under 3855?
Last peak 4818.62 on 1//4/2022
4818.62-(4818.62X.2)= 3854.90
I use the highest closing price, not the intraday peak.
I wonder what the official "bear market proclaimers" use? Past intraday high or closing high?
i suppose one should be consistent with the low price (intraday or closing) whichever one is used.
70/30 AA for life, Global market cap equity. Rebalance if fixed income <25% or >35%. Weighted ER< .10%. 5% of annual portfolio balance SWR, Proportional (to AA) withdrawals.
MnD wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 5:50 pmI wonder what the official "bear market proclaimers" use? Past intraday high or closing high?
i suppose one should be consistent with the low price (intraday or closing) whichever one is used.
trirunner wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 5:42 pm
everyone here in this thread is a paper hand, HODL your luna and to the moooooooooooooooon.........................
"Give me diamond hands and something to hodl with them, and I shall fly to the moon." -- Archimemes
"First they came for QQQ, and I didn't not speak out.
Then they came for bitcoin, and I did not speak out.
Then they came for S&P-and there was no one left to speak out for me."
trirunner wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 5:42 pm
everyone here in this thread is a paper hand, HODL your luna and to the moooooooooooooooon.........................
"Give me diamond hands and something to hodl with them, and I shall fly to the moon." -- Archimemes
"First they came for QQQ, and I didn't not speak out.
Then they came for bitcoin, and I did not speak out.
Then they came for S&P-and there was no one left to speak out for me."
trirunner wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 5:42 pm
everyone here in this thread is a paper hand, HODL your luna and to the moooooooooooooooon.........................
"Give me diamond hands and something to hodl with them, and I shall fly to the moon." -- Archimemes
"First they came for QQQ, and I didn't not speak out.
Then they came for bitcoin, and I did not speak out.
Then they came for S&P-and there was no one left to speak out for me."
Jimsad wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 3:19 pm
Sucker punch today for those who got sucked in after last few days rally thinking the bottom was already reached
Where are all the posters who were doing limit orders for buying dips?
Jimsad wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 3:19 pm
Sucker punch today for those who got sucked in after last few days rally thinking the bottom was already reached
Where are all the posters who were doing limit orders for buying dips?
trirunner wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 5:42 pm
everyone here in this thread is a paper hand, HODL your luna and to the moooooooooooooooon.........................
"Give me diamond hands and something to hodl with them, and I shall fly to the moon." -- Archimemes
"First they came for QQQ, and I didn't not speak out.
Then they came for bitcoin, and I did not speak out.
Then they came for S&P-and there was no one left to speak out for me."
I put a decent chunk into VTSAX yesterday when the cash became available. Ughhh...oh well, today could have gone up 4% just as well...
EDIT: Never mind! I see Vanguard screwed up somehow and it didn't settle until today, so I got today's price. Even though I submitted it at 10am yesterday. This is one time I don't mind the mess up
Last edited by JD2775 on Wed May 18, 2022 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
It’s hard to worry about market timing when the sudden movement of whatever I deposit pales in comparison to the dollar swing of the existing portfolio. This is a different mindset than earlier in my investing life and strange to be calmer about larger dollar swings.
Jimsad wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 3:19 pm
Sucker punch today for those who got sucked in after last few days rally thinking the bottom was already reached
Where are all the posters who were doing limit orders for buying dips?
JD2775 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 6:28 pm
I put a decent chunk into VTSAX yesterday when the cash became available. Ughhh...oh well, today could have gone up 4% just as well...
EDIT: Never mind! I see Vanguard screwed up somehow and it didn't settle until today, so I got today's price. Even though I submitted it at 10am yesterday. This is one time I don't mind the mess up
Whoa that shouldn’t happen. Does this actually happen a lot?
JD2775 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 6:28 pm
I put a decent chunk into VTSAX yesterday when the cash became available. Ughhh...oh well, today could have gone up 4% just as well...
EDIT: Never mind! I see Vanguard screwed up somehow and it didn't settle until today, so I got today's price. Even though I submitted it at 10am yesterday. This is one time I don't mind the mess up
usually if you ACH'ed in the payment, it *should* purchase VTSAX the same day you entered (COB price) unless your order was after hours or vanguard IT has gone bonkers.VG purchases even before the "cash" settles in your account, this is what I have noticed from before.
Now, I have to figure out when to get back in. For now, I'm waiting for my 3 month t-bills to mature.
This is quiet the ride. A 15-18x PE seems more than possible given that it also seems likely to see the 10 year get to 5% by time the Fed finishes up. Maybe a 3.5-4% by year end.
JD2775 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 6:28 pm
I put a decent chunk into VTSAX yesterday when the cash became available. Ughhh...oh well, today could have gone up 4% just as well...
EDIT: Never mind! I see Vanguard screwed up somehow and it didn't settle until today, so I got today's price. Even though I submitted it at 10am yesterday. This is one time I don't mind the mess up
usually if you ACH'ed in the payment, it *should* purchase VTSAX the same day you entered (COB price) unless your order was after hours or vanguard IT has gone bonkers.VG purchases even before the "cash" settles in your account, this is what I have noticed from before.
are you sure you got today's price?
Umm, I was mistaken. It closed at $99.40 (yesterday's price). It's $95.44 currently. Bummer.
trirunner wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 5:42 pm
everyone here in this thread is a paper hand, HODL your luna and to the moooooooooooooooon.........................
"Give me diamond hands and something to hodl with them, and I shall fly to the moon." -- Archimemes
"First they came for QQQ, and I didn't not speak out.
Then they came for bitcoin, and I did not speak out.
Then they came for S&P-and there was no one left to speak out for me."
Also, "the Fed giveth and the Fed taketh away".
What bout my TQQQ and FNGU and NRGU ...
I made a good 50% return on a portion of my portfolio trading TQQQ in 2020 and 2021. I haven't been in it since the summer of 2021. I wouldn't buy it now with the VXN so high. But if QQQ goes down 50% and the VXN get back into the low 20s, I might pull the trigger on some TQQQ in the future. But it's a trade not a long term hold.
if we enter a bear market tomorrow wouldn't this be the first time in history where we're having a bear market so soon after the last one (March 2020)? Not sure what the previous record was.
rockstar wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 7:16 pm... I made a good 50% return on a portion of my portfolio trading TQQQ in 2020 and 2021....
Interesting to note, that from 2020 through 2021 TQQQ was up like 250% for someone that just bought and held vs "trading" it.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Weath effect in reverse. Investors are looking at their 401k and feeling poorer. Negative pyschology is setting in. Consumer spending is plumetting at walmart, the canary in the coal mine.
Shift to value stocks for recession potential?
Last edited by smooth_rough on Wed May 18, 2022 8:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 7:45 pm
Weath effect in reverse. Investors are looking at their 401k and feeling poorer. Negative pyschology is setting in. Consumer spending is plumetting at walmart.
Shift to value stocks for recession potential?
Maybe... or maybe you already missed it... S&P 500 Value is down less than -5% year to date, relative to the full S&P 500 down -14%
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 7:45 pm
Weath effect in reverse. Investors are looking at their 401k and feeling poorer. Negative pyschology is setting in. Consumer spending is plumetting at walmart, the canary in the coal mine.
Shift to value stocks for recession potential?
Just wait until Zillow algorithms catch up with higher interest rates and housing market calming a bit. House is most people’s biggest asset. It says my house went up 5% last month alone. That’s insane.
smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 7:45 pm
Weath effect in reverse. Investors are looking at their 401k and feeling poorer. Negative pyschology is setting in. Consumer spending is plumetting at walmart, the canary in the coal mine.
Shift to value stocks for recession potential?
Just wait until Zillow algorithms catch up with higher interest rates and housing market calming a bit. House is most people’s biggest asset. It says my house went up 5% last month alone. That’s insane.
Mostly cash only offers by me. It really depends how much folks need to finance.
smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 7:45 pm
Weath effect in reverse. Investors are looking at their 401k and feeling poorer. Negative pyschology is setting in. Consumer spending is plumetting at walmart, the canary in the coal mine.
Shift to value stocks for recession potential?
Just wait until Zillow algorithms catch up with higher interest rates and housing market calming a bit. House is most people’s biggest asset. It says my house went up 5% last month alone. That’s insane.
Zillow estimate is skewed up. I can guarantee house price going down.
smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 7:45 pm
Weath effect in reverse. Investors are looking at their 401k and feeling poorer. Negative pyschology is setting in. Consumer spending is plumetting at walmart, the canary in the coal mine.
Shift to value stocks for recession potential?
Just wait until Zillow algorithms catch up with higher interest rates and housing market calming a bit. House is most people’s biggest asset. It says my house went up 5% last month alone. That’s insane.
Zillow estimate is skewed up. I can guarantee house price going down.
Not until supply gets back to levels close to 2019. Only about 4000 homes are for sale by me. Back in 2019, there were 12,000. And if you go back a few more years, it was closer to 20,0000. Supply issues are still a big problem along with building costs. I don't expect home prices to come down, but I do expect them to stop growing as fast.
smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 7:45 pm
Weath effect in reverse. Investors are looking at their 401k and feeling poorer. Negative pyschology is setting in. Consumer spending is plumetting at walmart, the canary in the coal mine.
Shift to value stocks for recession potential?
Just wait until Zillow algorithms catch up with higher interest rates and housing market calming a bit. House is most people’s biggest asset. It says my house went up 5% last month alone. That’s insane.
Yep, it doesn't help when people keep getting rosy Zillow estimates in their inbox. And if you use Mint, they use the Zillow value to calculate your net worth. It's surely making homeowners feel wealthy.
I got an email from Zillow last week estimating a 17% 1-year forecasted value increase. How comical.
I actually want my value to go down. I don't plan on selling for a long time and my property taxes are going up!
bugleheadd wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 2:32 pm
I'm beginning to think my guess of s&p 5975 is a liitle bit off for the 2022 bogleheads contest.
Our friend Nathan Drake is currently #2 on the list.
Hah. I am pretty close but I'd be shocked if this is where we end up by January 1st. My target is what I felt was realistic given the run-up the last few years that seemed quite a bit unjustified, but the market can get pessimistic pretty quickly if we do fall into a recession or stagflationary environment. It won't be pretty.
smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 7:45 pm
Weath effect in reverse. Investors are looking at their 401k and feeling poorer. Negative pyschology is setting in. Consumer spending is plumetting at walmart, the canary in the coal mine.
Shift to value stocks for recession potential?
This is the narrative I'm seeing. Producer prices went up. Manufacturers passed those costs onto customers. When customers had stimulus, they paid. Now, they don't have stimulus, and they are shifting from goods to services like travel. Retailers now are in a situation, where they paid more for goods than they can sell. Retailers will start to add discounts to get through this costly and overstocked inventory. Demand from stores will shift. I received in the mail more coupons from REI. And I'm seeing more ads for sales.
No idea what's safe. But I feel good about t-bills not losing me more nominally.
Stonks no more. For an entire generation of investors, this could be their first real bear market (in contrast to the unusual circumstances and quick recovery of the corona-crash). An agonizing drop, slow multi-year recovery, and stagflation to boot. Through this, stocks will return to their rightful masters.
Kookaburra wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:03 pm
Stonks no more. For an entire generation of investors, this could be their first real bear market (in contrast to the unusual circumstances and quick recovery of the corona-crash). An agonizing drop, slow multi-year recovery, and stagflation to boot. Through this, stocks will return to their rightful masters.
I have some concerns that the capitulation this time around could be much more dramatic than 2008. There is a whole cohort of people who have lived in a NIRP/ZIRP/QE-everything [offensive language removed by moderator oldcomputerguy] era. Without the Fed put they are in for a surprise. I don't think the Fed steps in on this one to backstop the markets until they reach price stability. Buckle up.
MindBogler wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:55 pm
There is a whole cohort of people who have lived in a NIRP/ZIRP/QE-everything [offensive language removed by moderator oldcomputerguy] era.
muffins14 wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 10:15 pm
What are these things?
NIRP: negative interest rate policy
ZIRP: zero interest rate policy
QE: quantitative easing ("QE-everything" doesn't make sense, though) [offensive language removed by moderator oldcomputerguy]
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
MindBogler wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:55 pm
I have some concerns that the capitulation this time around could be much more dramatic than 2008. There is a whole cohort of people who have lived in a NIRP/ZIRP/QE-everything [offensive language removed by moderator oldcomputerguy] era. Without the Fed put they are in for a surprise. I don't think the Fed steps in on this one to backstop the markets until they reach price stability. Buckle up.
MindBogler wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 9:55 pm
I have some concerns that the capitulation this time around could be much more dramatic than 2008. There is a whole cohort of people who have lived in a NIRP/ZIRP/QE-everything [offensive language removed by moderator oldcomputerguy] era. Without the Fed put they are in for a surprise. I don't think the Fed steps in on this one to backstop the markets until they reach price stability. Buckle up.
So, what assets are you buying / holding?
You can look through my post history, but I went to 60% cash in stages between October and finished in January 2022. I know I'm losing money to inflation but I will not be sitting panicked on the sidelines. I have a plan to DCA back in to the market at various breakpoints, starting at SPX 3500. I'm sorry I've violated various Boglehead principles here but this one is just obvious (to me). All new contributions are going 100% stock to assist if I'm completely wrong. If stocks turn north, I will also DCA back in before the points at which I exited.
MindBogler wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 10:54 pm
You can look through my post history, but I went to 60% cash in stages between October and finished in January 2022. I know I'm losing money to inflation but I will not be sitting panicked on the sidelines. I have a plan to DCA back in to the market at various breakpoints, starting at SPX 3500. I'm sorry I've violated various Boglehead principles here but this one is just obvious (to me). All new contributions are going 100% stock to assist if I'm completely wrong. If stocks turn north, I will also DCA back in before the points at which I exited.
I'm not sure about seeing 3500. The 3800s could be a nice place for this arc to end, which could coincide with the market getting a whiff of a reversal on rate hikes due to economic slowing.
MindBogler wrote: ↑Wed May 18, 2022 10:54 pm
You can look through my post history, but I went to 60% cash in stages between October and finished in January 2022. I know I'm losing money to inflation but I will not be sitting panicked on the sidelines. I have a plan to DCA back in to the market at various breakpoints, starting at SPX 3500. I'm sorry I've violated various Boglehead principles here but this one is just obvious (to me). All new contributions are going 100% stock to assist if I'm completely wrong. If stocks turn north, I will also DCA back in before the points at which I exited.
I'm not sure about seeing 3500. The 3800s could be a nice place for this arc to end, which could coincide with the market getting a whiff of a reversal on rate hikes due to economic slowing.
I think we'll know where this is going at Friday's options expiration. There is a huge wall at SPX 4000 and nothing major down to 3300. I think if we can't hold SPX 4000 this week it is going to crater.