I see what you mean and I apologize for being so insensitive. I realize that I’m in a privileged position in being young and not everyone is in as much of a cushion as me, especially in this space. Stock declines and economic falls has real consequences and impacts others in varying degrees. I’ll dial back the excitement in the future.9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 12:50 pmI wish people would stop with this unabashed excitement about stock declines. I'm 35 and still accumulating as well, so I understand the value that can come from continued investment during market declines. But it's also not that hard to temper or moderate this "excitement" if you have a few small ounces of empathy. Many people - including people I know and care about - are in or near retirement without tremendous amounts of money to spare.
To me it's an indicator of selfishness and lack of experience as an investor to have such outward expressions of enthusiasm on the topic. Maybe in echo chamber bubbles of young high earners in FIRE forums it's a nice rallying cry.
My hope is this attitude can be dialed down a few notches on the forum. And this comment is one of hundreds of similar ones, so I'm responding to this one but not responding only to Abalyon in particular.
U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Here is an item recommended to me when I was thinking through comparing buy and hold with rebalancing plans. This addressed the main tradeoffs that mattered for my considerations.SantaClaraSurfer wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 12:11 pm It occurs to me that if we were to be entering a period where holding bonds wins out going forward for a period of time on a total return basis versus US Total Equities, that it might very well look like this. In which case, I may have just moved funds in the wrong direction!
https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/D ... 76a5174cca
Generally I think most people use relative current levels for moving between two assets, rather than share prices. To me this reads similar to the concept of overbalancing. I generally tend to think of overbalancing as taking additional risk during declines.SantaClaraSurfer wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 12:11 pm I don't recall many threads on navigating this situation! It's tricky from a behavioral viewpoint, as you'd have to write some pretty complex rule sets to keep it honest.
Last edited by alluringreality on Fri May 20, 2022 2:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
45% US Indexes, 25% Ex-US Indexes, 30% Fixed Income - Buy & Hold
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Any chance of this dropping another 40%? After that I will have to get a job!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Plenty of people are still doubled up from last time, or the time before that. Eventually, there's not enough room (or insurmountable interpersonal conflict) and you end up with more people outside.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Agreed. I try not to get too bothered by it myself, because I know my goal to retire very early is a rather privileged one, and I don't have a lot of room to complain if market conditions sink those plans (which looks to be the case). That said, it definitely comes off a bit... ghoulish?9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 12:50 pm I wish people would stop with this unabashed excitement about stock declines. I'm 35 and still accumulating as well, so I understand the value that can come from continued investment during market declines. But it's also not that hard to temper or moderate this "excitement" if you have a few small ounces of empathy. Many people - including people I know and care about - are in or near retirement without tremendous amounts of money to spare.
To me it's an indicator of selfishness and lack of experience as an investor to have such outward expressions of enthusiasm on the topic. Maybe in echo chamber bubbles of young high earners in FIRE forums it's a nice rallying cry.
My hope is this attitude can be dialed down a few notches on the forum. And this comment is one of hundreds of similar ones, so I'm responding to this one but not responding only to Abalyon in particular.
Most people approaching retirement are nothing like the average (i.e. fairly wealthy) poster here, they're just holding onto their 401k (if they're lucky enough to have one!) and helpless to do anything about all this. Our economic system has made engaging with the market the only available option for anything beyond a bare minimum retirement, with all the randomness and nonsense that comes along with it.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yes, longest streak of weekly losses for the Dow in 90 years.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 1:42 pm Longest streak of weekly losses since the Great Depression?
Sounds scary and aptly reflects the times we live in, imo
Let's hope that if it has to be a recession it will not be a depression.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You can state it differently and be a great example: you're in accumulation mode, so your plan is to continue monthly contributions no matter where the market goes.Abalyon wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 1:44 pmI see what you mean and I apologize for being so insensitive. I realize that I’m in a privileged position in being young and not everyone is in as much of a cushion as me, especially in this space. Stock declines and economic falls has real consequences and impacts others in varying degrees. I’ll dial back the excitement in the future.9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 12:50 pmI wish people would stop with this unabashed excitement about stock declines. I'm 35 and still accumulating as well, so I understand the value that can come from continued investment during market declines. But it's also not that hard to temper or moderate this "excitement" if you have a few small ounces of empathy. Many people - including people I know and care about - are in or near retirement without tremendous amounts of money to spare.
To me it's an indicator of selfishness and lack of experience as an investor to have such outward expressions of enthusiasm on the topic. Maybe in echo chamber bubbles of young high earners in FIRE forums it's a nice rallying cry.
My hope is this attitude can be dialed down a few notches on the forum. And this comment is one of hundreds of similar ones, so I'm responding to this one but not responding only to Abalyon in particular.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
So much tangible fear in this thread. We’re only down 20%! And still above pre-Covid highs, which is nothing to look down on given all the craziness of the last two years.. People should just tune out the headlines and go enjoy the nice spring weather and their weekends!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
On the other hand it doesn’t feel like a panic. This has been the most telegraphed, talked about recession ever. Maybe the fun is only beginning and investors steely resolve will be shaken at some point. If nothing else there’s got to be a lot of meme stock, crypto, wallstreetbets traders out there who might start to get margin called into oblivion. Heck Elon Musk must be getting awfully nervous about that iron clad sale agreement he made with Twitter considering how much of the deal is leveraged against his personal TSLA holdings. What would the market do if Musk goes bust suddenly? That right there could be the “Lehman Bros. Moment” that turns this from an orderly adjustment into a panic.JS-Elcano wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:00 pmYes, longest streak of weekly losses for the Dow in 90 years.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 1:42 pm Longest streak of weekly losses since the Great Depression?
Sounds scary and aptly reflects the times we live in, imo
Let's hope that if it has to be a recession it will not be a depression.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
With TSLA going down 10% regularly now, we will find out soon enough. Popcorn readyClassII wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:06 pmOn the other hand it doesn’t feel like a panic. This has been the most telegraphed, talked about recession ever. Maybe the fun is only beginning and investors steely resolve will be shaken at some point. If nothing else there’s got to be a lot of meme stock, crypto, wallstreetbets traders out there who might start to get margin called into oblivion. Heck Elon Musk must be getting awfully nervous about that iron clad sale agreement he made with Twitter considering how much of the deal is leveraged against his personal TSLA holdings. What would the market do if Musk goes bust suddenly? That right there could be the “Lehman Bros. Moment” that turns this from an orderly adjustment into a panic.JS-Elcano wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:00 pmYes, longest streak of weekly losses for the Dow in 90 years.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 1:42 pm Longest streak of weekly losses since the Great Depression?
Sounds scary and aptly reflects the times we live in, imo
Let's hope that if it has to be a recession it will not be a depression.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's going to snow in Denver today.Firemenot wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:05 pm So much tangible fear in this thread. We’re only down 20%! And still above pre-Covid highs, which is nothing to look down on given all the craziness of the last two years.. People should just tune out the headlines and go enjoy the nice spring weather and their weekends!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This isn’t 08. There aren’t a bagillion mortgages on the brink of default. Credit default swaps aren’t pulling down AIG. The market seems to be slowly finding its balance.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 1:06 pm You aren't all equities if you say "I should have enough cash to get me through the next couple of years without having to liquidate any investements,"
Just include your cash portion as part of your AA then you can start nudging. I am already doing this myself.
I don't have that cash yet. I will be getting it from an inheritance later this year.
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- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
But if people start losing their jobs in droves, there will be. We might be at the very beginning of a serious recession.Californiastate wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:12 pm This isn’t 08. There aren’t a bagillion mortgages on the brink of default. Credit default swaps aren’t pulling down AIG.
I hope you're right, and I'm wrong, but I think the future is dark for many years to come.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
TSLA is so badly priced that I don't think it really dictates where the market is headed. It came into 2020 at less than $90/share and peaked at over $1200, in 23 months. Even now, almost 50% down, their P/E is almost 100. It's nonsense.ClassII wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:06 pmOn the other hand it doesn’t feel like a panic. This has been the most telegraphed, talked about recession ever. Maybe the fun is only beginning and investors steely resolve will be shaken at some point. If nothing else there’s got to be a lot of meme stock, crypto, wallstreetbets traders out there who might start to get margin called into oblivion. Heck Elon Musk must be getting awfully nervous about that iron clad sale agreement he made with Twitter considering how much of the deal is leveraged against his personal TSLA holdings. What would the market do if Musk goes bust suddenly? That right there could be the “Lehman Bros. Moment” that turns this from an orderly adjustment into a panic.JS-Elcano wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:00 pmYes, longest streak of weekly losses for the Dow in 90 years.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 1:42 pm Longest streak of weekly losses since the Great Depression?
Sounds scary and aptly reflects the times we live in, imo
Let's hope that if it has to be a recession it will not be a depression.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's going to be 95+ in the Northeast this weekend probably breaking records.Firemenot wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:05 pm So much tangible fear in this thread. We’re only down 20%! And still above pre-Covid highs, which is nothing to look down on given all the craziness of the last two years.. People should just tune out the headlines and go enjoy the nice spring weather and their weekends!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I've been saying that the past couple of years.
Time will tell.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
We're breaking records here in San Antonio. Hitting the 100's two months ahead of the normal schedule.RJC wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:19 pmIt's going to be 95+ in the Northeast this weekend probably breaking records.Firemenot wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:05 pm So much tangible fear in this thread. We’re only down 20%! And still above pre-Covid highs, which is nothing to look down on given all the craziness of the last two years.. People should just tune out the headlines and go enjoy the nice spring weather and their weekends!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
OK, then my suggestion remains the same - 95/5 today then rebalance the inheritance later. The truth is that 95% vs 100% don't differ by much, anyway.peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:13 pmMarseille07 wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 1:06 pm You aren't all equities if you say "I should have enough cash to get me through the next couple of years without having to liquidate any investements,"
Just include your cash portion as part of your AA then you can start nudging. I am already doing this myself.I don't have that cash yet. I will be getting it from an inheritance later this year.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
A bit of a climb in the last 30 minutes of trading?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
A couple of weeks ago you were lamenting the fact that you couldn't borrow money to buy more stocks. Quite the change of heart. What happened?peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:16 pmBut if people start losing their jobs in droves, there will be. We might be at the very beginning of a serious recession.Californiastate wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:12 pm This isn’t 08. There aren’t a bagillion mortgages on the brink of default. Credit default swaps aren’t pulling down AIG.
I hope you're right, and I'm wrong, but I think the future is dark for many years to come.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Definitely can’t argue with TSLA being badly priced but it can still cause investors to panic. A LOT of people bought it at ATHs and with margin to boot.
If a high profile billionaire goes poof, even if the reasons are completely explainable and idiotic (leveraging a meme stock to the hilt to buy freakin’ Twitter) it’s still going to cause a freak out.
It’s then that people will sell everything in their 401k or worse, withdraw it all and this goes from a mere bear market into a crash.
Last edited by ClassII on Fri May 20, 2022 2:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Todays the bottom. We will never go below 3810 ever again
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Let's finish green! Avoid a bear market!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think it doesn't feel like a panic because we are very early in this downturn.trirunner wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:10 pmWith TSLA going down 10% regularly now, we will find out soon enough. Popcorn readyClassII wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:06 pmOn the other hand it doesn’t feel like a panic. This has been the most telegraphed, talked about recession ever. Maybe the fun is only beginning and investors steely resolve will be shaken at some point. If nothing else there’s got to be a lot of meme stock, crypto, wallstreetbets traders out there who might start to get margin called into oblivion. Heck Elon Musk must be getting awfully nervous about that iron clad sale agreement he made with Twitter considering how much of the deal is leveraged against his personal TSLA holdings. What would the market do if Musk goes bust suddenly? That right there could be the “Lehman Bros. Moment” that turns this from an orderly adjustment into a panic.JS-Elcano wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:00 pmYes, longest streak of weekly losses for the Dow in 90 years.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 1:42 pm Longest streak of weekly losses since the Great Depression?
Sounds scary and aptly reflects the times we live in, imo
Let's hope that if it has to be a recession it will not be a depression.
The SP500 fell 20% between Oct 2007 and late March 2008. Nobody was panicking then either. LOL, I bought my first house in early 2008. If I remember correctly, no one was panicking until Sept 2008.
We don't need a housing crash. We have: a pandemic that is still unpredictable and has shut down major manufacturing in the world, a war in the bread basket of Europe, which combined with sky rocketing food prices led the World Bank to warn of a coming global food crisis, we have highest inflation in 40 years.
There is no realistic expectation (on my part anyway) that any of these current problems can be solved in the foreseeable future. Hence, I would not be surprised by continued drops, another 30-35% from here.
Last edited by JS-Elcano on Fri May 20, 2022 2:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well, that's it. That was the bottom.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Snowing heavily in Littleton now. And I am loving it.Tom_T wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:10 pmIt's going to snow in Denver today.Firemenot wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:05 pm So much tangible fear in this thread. We’re only down 20%! And still above pre-Covid highs, which is nothing to look down on given all the craziness of the last two years.. People should just tune out the headlines and go enjoy the nice spring weather and their weekends!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
4200 felt like the bottom for a while with how aggressively it would bounce from that range; we shall see.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This is THE thread where it had been fine historically to speak with any sort of positivity regarding down days. Your statement struck me as well within the previously accepted level of enthusiasm.Abalyon wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 1:44 pmI see what you mean and I apologize for being so insensitive. I realize that I’m in a privileged position in being young and not everyone is in as much of a cushion as me, especially in this space. Stock declines and economic falls has real consequences and impacts others in varying degrees. I’ll dial back the excitement in the future.9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 12:50 pmI wish people would stop with this unabashed excitement about stock declines. I'm 35 and still accumulating as well, so I understand the value that can come from continued investment during market declines. But it's also not that hard to temper or moderate this "excitement" if you have a few small ounces of empathy. Many people - including people I know and care about - are in or near retirement without tremendous amounts of money to spare.
To me it's an indicator of selfishness and lack of experience as an investor to have such outward expressions of enthusiasm on the topic. Maybe in echo chamber bubbles of young high earners in FIRE forums it's a nice rallying cry.
My hope is this attitude can be dialed down a few notches on the forum. And this comment is one of hundreds of similar ones, so I'm responding to this one but not responding only to Abalyon in particular.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I am also a pessimist but in the interest of my own mental health I tell myself:JS-Elcano wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:39 pmI think it doesn't feel like a panic is because we are very early in this downturn.trirunner wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:10 pmWith TSLA going down 10% regularly now, we will find out soon enough. Popcorn readyClassII wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:06 pmOn the other hand it doesn’t feel like a panic. This has been the most telegraphed, talked about recession ever. Maybe the fun is only beginning and investors steely resolve will be shaken at some point. If nothing else there’s got to be a lot of meme stock, crypto, wallstreetbets traders out there who might start to get margin called into oblivion. Heck Elon Musk must be getting awfully nervous about that iron clad sale agreement he made with Twitter considering how much of the deal is leveraged against his personal TSLA holdings. What would the market do if Musk goes bust suddenly? That right there could be the “Lehman Bros. Moment” that turns this from an orderly adjustment into a panic.JS-Elcano wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:00 pmYes, longest streak of weekly losses for the Dow in 90 years.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 1:42 pm Longest streak of weekly losses since the Great Depression?
Sounds scary and aptly reflects the times we live in, imo
Let's hope that if it has to be a recession it will not be a depression.
The SP500 fell 20% between Oct 2007 and late March 2008. Nobody was panicking then either. LOL, I bought my first house in early 2008. If I remember correctly, no one was panicking until Sept 2008.
We don't need a housing crash. We have: a pandemic that is still unpredictable and has shut down major manufacturing in the world, a war in the bread basket of Europe, which combined with sky rocketing food prices led the World Bank to warn of a coming global food crisis, we have highest inflation in 40 years.
There is no realistic expectation (on my part anyway) that any of these current problems can be solved in the foreseeable future. Hence, I would not be surprised by continued drops, another 30-35% from here.
* Covid lockdowns in China will resolve the second the CCP decides the political capital is too costly. This is a totally man made headwind.
* Biden can drop China tariffs to fight inflation.
* Russia can't sustain its war forever. Some pundits think the war machine grinds to a halt within weeks. It's also just politically self defeating to keep at it too long. Oil will remain expensive but food might drop in price if Ukraine gets back to growing (then again we're pretty much locked for missing at least one growing season)
* Big tech companies are still flush with cash and planning on large scale buybacks. They probably have more real-time insight into the economy than us small fry's... If they're buying, I'm buying!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I guess the lesson from the last few months is "if you're going to check the market today, wait until the last 15 minutes".
Today is no exception.
Today is no exception.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I still wish I could borrow money to buy stocks. They're on sale. NASDAQ down almost 30% from ATH. S&P500 down about 20%.Candor wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:36 pmA couple of weeks ago you were lamenting the fact that you couldn't borrow money to buy more stocks. Quite the change of heart. What happened?peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:16 pmBut if people start losing their jobs in droves, there will be. We might be at the very beginning of a serious recession.Californiastate wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:12 pm This isn’t 08. There aren’t a bagillion mortgages on the brink of default. Credit default swaps aren’t pulling down AIG.
I hope you're right, and I'm wrong, but I think the future is dark for many years to come.
Last edited by peskypesky on Fri May 20, 2022 3:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
We only gained +0.01%...no action at all today.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
So the future is dark for many years to come but you want to borrow money to buy stocks. Got it.peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 3:00 pmI still wish I could borrow money to buy stocks. They're on sale, if you haven't noticed.Candor wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:36 pmA couple of weeks ago you were lamenting the fact that you couldn't borrow money to buy more stocks. Quite the change of heart. What happened?peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:16 pmBut if people start losing their jobs in droves, there will be. We might be at the very beginning of a serious recession.Californiastate wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:12 pm This isn’t 08. There aren’t a bagillion mortgages on the brink of default. Credit default swaps aren’t pulling down AIG.
I hope you're right, and I'm wrong, but I think the future is dark for many years to come.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Seriously, I’m really interested in learning how many players are responsible for what percentage of the price movement. I’m imagining a bunch of computers playing chicken during the last five minutes of trading, for a lot of trading days this year.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
it's been like this for the last 5 months, 1 step forward, 2 steps back, although the 1 step is getting smaller and smaller.
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No one knows the future. But my gut tells me that it's good to buy stocks when they are down a lot from ATH's. That's why I maxed out my 401k contributions in 2008, 2009, etc. Stock prices were lower, so I snapped them up.Candor wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 3:03 pmSo the future is dark for many years to come but you want to borrow money to buy stocks. Got it.peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 3:00 pmI still wish I could borrow money to buy stocks. They're on sale, if you haven't noticed.Candor wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:36 pmA couple of weeks ago you were lamenting the fact that you couldn't borrow money to buy more stocks. Quite the change of heart. What happened?peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:16 pmBut if people start losing their jobs in droves, there will be. We might be at the very beginning of a serious recession.Californiastate wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:12 pm This isn’t 08. There aren’t a bagillion mortgages on the brink of default. Credit default swaps aren’t pulling down AIG.
I hope you're right, and I'm wrong, but I think the future is dark for many years to come.
It took about 5 years for stocks to regain their highs.
YMMV.
Last edited by peskypesky on Fri May 20, 2022 3:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That is some serious recency bias.JS-Elcano wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:39 pmI think it doesn't feel like a panic because we are very early in this downturn.trirunner wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:10 pmWith TSLA going down 10% regularly now, we will find out soon enough. Popcorn readyClassII wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:06 pmOn the other hand it doesn’t feel like a panic. This has been the most telegraphed, talked about recession ever. Maybe the fun is only beginning and investors steely resolve will be shaken at some point. If nothing else there’s got to be a lot of meme stock, crypto, wallstreetbets traders out there who might start to get margin called into oblivion. Heck Elon Musk must be getting awfully nervous about that iron clad sale agreement he made with Twitter considering how much of the deal is leveraged against his personal TSLA holdings. What would the market do if Musk goes bust suddenly? That right there could be the “Lehman Bros. Moment” that turns this from an orderly adjustment into a panic.JS-Elcano wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:00 pmYes, longest streak of weekly losses for the Dow in 90 years.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 1:42 pm Longest streak of weekly losses since the Great Depression?
Sounds scary and aptly reflects the times we live in, imo
Let's hope that if it has to be a recession it will not be a depression.
The SP500 fell 20% between Oct 2007 and late March 2008. Nobody was panicking then either. LOL, I bought my first house in early 2008. If I remember correctly, no one was panicking until Sept 2008.
We don't need a housing crash. We have: a pandemic that is still unpredictable and has shut down major manufacturing in the world, a war in the bread basket of Europe, which combined with sky rocketing food prices led the World Bank to warn of a coming global food crisis, we have highest inflation in 40 years.
There is no realistic expectation (on my part anyway) that any of these current problems can be solved in the foreseeable future. Hence, I would not be surprised by continued drops, another 30-35% from here.
But, I agree with you that the lack of panic is because it is quite possible that we are just getting started. It is possible that we are almost done with the drops. Either way, i suspect the problems will get resolved, one way or another.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I am not actually a pessimist, more of a pragmatist/realist. My mental health strategy is to be prepared for the worst and then be happily surprised when it turns out better. I am with you on those possibilities, and while they are possibilities I just don't think they are very realistic right now.bagastuff wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:54 pmI am also a pessimist but in the interest of my own mental health I tell myself:JS-Elcano wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:39 pm I think it doesn't feel like a panic is because we are very early in this downturn.
The SP500 fell 20% between Oct 2007 and late March 2008. Nobody was panicking then either. LOL, I bought my first house in early 2008. If I remember correctly, no one was panicking until Sept 2008.
We don't need a housing crash. We have: a pandemic that is still unpredictable and has shut down major manufacturing in the world, a war in the bread basket of Europe, which combined with sky rocketing food prices led the World Bank to warn of a coming global food crisis, we have highest inflation in 40 years.
There is no realistic expectation (on my part anyway) that any of these current problems can be solved in the foreseeable future. Hence, I would not be surprised by continued drops, another 30-35% from here.
* Covid lockdowns in China will resolve the second the CCP decides the political capital is too costly. This is a totally man made headwind.
* Biden can drop China tariffs to fight inflation.
* Russia can't sustain its war forever. Some pundits think the war machine grinds to a halt within weeks. It's also just politically self defeating to keep at it too long. Oil will remain expensive but food might drop in price if Ukraine gets back to growing (then again we're pretty much locked for missing at least one growing season)
* Big tech companies are still flush with cash and planning on large scale buybacks. They probably have more real-time insight into the economy than us small fry's... If they're buying, I'm buying!
I also bought VTI today.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Bought some VUG today. I don't do "factor investing" but the prices were getting too tempting.
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I agree with you in thinking that although those things are possibilities, they don't seem very likely.JS-Elcano wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 3:10 pmI am not actually a pessimist, more of a pragmatist/realist. My mental health strategy is to be prepared for the worst and then be happily surprised when it turns out better. I am with you on those possibilities, and while they are possibilities I just don't think they are very realistic right now.bagastuff wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:54 pmI am also a pessimist but in the interest of my own mental health I tell myself:JS-Elcano wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:39 pm I think it doesn't feel like a panic is because we are very early in this downturn.
The SP500 fell 20% between Oct 2007 and late March 2008. Nobody was panicking then either. LOL, I bought my first house in early 2008. If I remember correctly, no one was panicking until Sept 2008.
We don't need a housing crash. We have: a pandemic that is still unpredictable and has shut down major manufacturing in the world, a war in the bread basket of Europe, which combined with sky rocketing food prices led the World Bank to warn of a coming global food crisis, we have highest inflation in 40 years.
There is no realistic expectation (on my part anyway) that any of these current problems can be solved in the foreseeable future. Hence, I would not be surprised by continued drops, another 30-35% from here.
* Covid lockdowns in China will resolve the second the CCP decides the political capital is too costly. This is a totally man made headwind.
* Biden can drop China tariffs to fight inflation.
* Russia can't sustain its war forever. Some pundits think the war machine grinds to a halt within weeks. It's also just politically self defeating to keep at it too long. Oil will remain expensive but food might drop in price if Ukraine gets back to growing (then again we're pretty much locked for missing at least one growing season)
* Big tech companies are still flush with cash and planning on large scale buybacks. They probably have more real-time insight into the economy than us small fry's... If they're buying, I'm buying!
I also bought VTI today.
And I think the underlying problem for stock prices is that they were propped up for many years by cheap money. That is over. And I'm not sure when it will return. 2022? Not likely. 2023? Doubt it. 2024? Who knows?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
they're on sale like when store marking item up 100%, and then discount 25%peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 3:00 pmI still wish I could borrow money to buy stocks. They're on sale. NASDAQ down almost 30% from ATH. S&P500 down about 20%.Candor wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:36 pmA couple of weeks ago you were lamenting the fact that you couldn't borrow money to buy more stocks. Quite the change of heart. What happened?peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:16 pmBut if people start losing their jobs in droves, there will be. We might be at the very beginning of a serious recession.Californiastate wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:12 pm This isn’t 08. There aren’t a bagillion mortgages on the brink of default. Credit default swaps aren’t pulling down AIG.
I hope you're right, and I'm wrong, but I think the future is dark for many years to come.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
And just like that, we avert the bear...for a day.
But looks like brighter days are ahead! Get ready for the "shocking rally" to come:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-t ... =home-page
I'm kidding, of course. Of all the stock prognosticators, I find the technical analysts to be the most entertaining of all...
But looks like brighter days are ahead! Get ready for the "shocking rally" to come:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-t ... =home-page
I'm kidding, of course. Of all the stock prognosticators, I find the technical analysts to be the most entertaining of all...
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Only time will tell.trirunner wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 3:15 pmthey're on sale like when store marking item up 100%, and then discount 25%peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 3:00 pmI still wish I could borrow money to buy stocks. They're on sale. NASDAQ down almost 30% from ATH. S&P500 down about 20%.Candor wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:36 pmA couple of weeks ago you were lamenting the fact that you couldn't borrow money to buy more stocks. Quite the change of heart. What happened?peskypesky wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:16 pmBut if people start losing their jobs in droves, there will be. We might be at the very beginning of a serious recession.Californiastate wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:12 pm This isn’t 08. There aren’t a bagillion mortgages on the brink of default. Credit default swaps aren’t pulling down AIG.
I hope you're right, and I'm wrong, but I think the future is dark for many years to come.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
By "foreseeable future" I meant in the next 6 months since I was alluding to the timeline of the GFC when we had a similar (20%) decline early in the year and the bottom didn't fall out and panic didn't set in until Sept. I also hope it doesn't come to anything like this, but with the current challenges and lack of promising solutions I think it is a real possibility to revisit such drops.marcopolo wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 3:07 pmThat is some serious recency bias.JS-Elcano wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:39 pmI think it doesn't feel like a panic because we are very early in this downturn.trirunner wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:10 pmWith TSLA going down 10% regularly now, we will find out soon enough. Popcorn readyClassII wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:06 pmOn the other hand it doesn’t feel like a panic. This has been the most telegraphed, talked about recession ever. Maybe the fun is only beginning and investors steely resolve will be shaken at some point. If nothing else there’s got to be a lot of meme stock, crypto, wallstreetbets traders out there who might start to get margin called into oblivion. Heck Elon Musk must be getting awfully nervous about that iron clad sale agreement he made with Twitter considering how much of the deal is leveraged against his personal TSLA holdings. What would the market do if Musk goes bust suddenly? That right there could be the “Lehman Bros. Moment” that turns this from an orderly adjustment into a panic.
The SP500 fell 20% between Oct 2007 and late March 2008. Nobody was panicking then either. LOL, I bought my first house in early 2008. If I remember correctly, no one was panicking until Sept 2008.
We don't need a housing crash. We have: a pandemic that is still unpredictable and has shut down major manufacturing in the world, a war in the bread basket of Europe, which combined with sky rocketing food prices led the World Bank to warn of a coming global food crisis, we have highest inflation in 40 years.
There is no realistic expectation (on my part anyway) that any of these current problems can be solved in the foreseeable future. Hence, I would not be surprised by continued drops, another 30-35% from here.
But, I agree with you that the lack of panic is because it is quite possible that we are just getting started. It is possible that we are almost done with the drops. Either way, i suspect the problems will get resolved, one way or another.
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's funny that one person is criticizing me for being too pessimistic about the market's prospects, and someone else is criticizing me for being too optimistic.
They probably should argue with each other, since I'm in the middle.
They probably should argue with each other, since I'm in the middle.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It really feels like there are consistent Friday afternoon rallies. The conspiracy theorist in my wants to think it is to take advantage of 401k contributors that will be buying at Friday closing price.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Who says only those things can cause a 45% drop? We have plenty else going on.Californiastate wrote: ↑Fri May 20, 2022 2:12 pm This isn’t 08. There aren’t a bagillion mortgages on the brink of default. Credit default swaps aren’t pulling down AIG. The market seems to be slowly finding its balance.