Considering, but I feel like I’ll have a better opportunity in 3-4 months. If S&P hits 40% off ATH I’ll def pull the trigger. If not I guess I’ll wait till the next bust.WhiteMaxima wrote: ↑Fri May 13, 2022 11:34 pm Excellent opportunity to do Roth conversion and Dollar cost averaging. Mega backdoor Roth conversion.
U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Markets are always flat on the weekends. Never understood why.
- canadianbacon
- Posts: 677
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The Illuminati spends that time at the beach.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Sat May 14, 2022 1:57 pm Markets are always flat on the weekends. Never understood why.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
With all that sunlight, you can really see why they are called the "Enlightened". har har har *slapping knee*canadianbacon wrote: ↑Sat May 14, 2022 2:55 pmThe Illuminati spends that time at the beach.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Sat May 14, 2022 1:57 pm Markets are always flat on the weekends. Never understood why.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Another drop tmr?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Seems lately futures have been pretty unreliable.MindBogler wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 3:20 pmFutures will give some clue, but they do not always accurately predict the day's outcome.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Stocks will typically follow what futures are doing, but it's not unusual for markets to open down and end up or vice versa. In recent sessions there have been some quite sporadic direction changes throughout the day... so what the Sunday market futures start at (should be opening shortly... 6pm eastern) might be very different than what Monday's close is.
That said, rumblings on other parts of the Internet seem to be expecting red...
That said, rumblings on other parts of the Internet seem to be expecting red...
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Portfolio gone futures seem to taken a dip blip.JoMoney wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 4:43 pm Stocks will typically follow what futures are doing, but it's not unusual for markets to open down and end up or vice versa. In recent sessions there have been some quite sporadic direction changes throughout the day... so what the Sunday market futures start at (should be opening shortly... 6pm eastern) might be very different than what Monday's close is.
That said, rumblings on other parts of the Internet seem to be expecting red...
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yup, and yet they opened pretty solidly in the green. Things change quick these days.
Even if Monday does end overall green, I'm still expecting we'll see a lower low this week. This is based on my trend following, and the trend I've discovered is when I buy, it's at a recent high point and then things go lower
viewtopic.php?p=6676475#p6676475
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
We are heading for a another dip today and also this week it seems.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
When have futures been reliable?Robot Monster wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 3:24 pmSeems lately futures have been pretty unreliable.MindBogler wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 3:20 pmFutures will give some clue, but they do not always accurately predict the day's outcome.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My impression is they've been more unreliable lately, but haven't exactly done a study on this.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 7:30 amWhen have futures been reliable?Robot Monster wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 3:24 pmSeems lately futures have been pretty unreliable.MindBogler wrote: ↑Sun May 15, 2022 3:20 pmFutures will give some clue, but they do not always accurately predict the day's outcome.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Unless futures are up/down 2%+ before 8:30AM EST (when econ data typically gets dropped), there's no reason to ever pay any attention to futures.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well, Friday was fun while it lasted. Back to your regularly scheduled sell off.
- xraygoggles
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Friday was shorts covering - all the crappiest stocks, memes, Ark, Tesla partly squoze.
Now back to DownOnly(TM).
Simplicity is the key to brilliance - Vti & chill.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Here we go again...
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yep. We've had a few of those massive up days during this market selloff. It always comes back downxraygoggles wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 9:54 amFriday was shorts covering - all the crappiest stocks, memes, Ark, Tesla partly squoze.
Now back to DownOnly(TM).
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The last two big up days I remember (3 Thursdays ago and 2 Wednesdays ago), the market instantly tanked the next trading day. Today, the markets are only down a smidge (by this year's standards), so the rate of retracement is at least diminishing.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
We still have few hours to decide whether we RIP or R.I.P
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That's one way to look at it - but we can easily fall 2% in the last 30 minutes of trading. We'll see
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
If this becomes the new sentiment, we will some very nice P/E' like 1970s of <12. The start of the next cycle of growth will be spectacular for middle aged accumulators and into their retirement. I hope this news will spread! I am 40% rental real estate, 40% stocks. So news either way is ok with me.NewbieBogle007 wrote: ↑Fri May 13, 2022 6:14 pm Wall Street Journal suggests stocks no longer reign:
https://stocks.apple.com/Ae19joQCDTzG6xSENg-0S7w
Now my crystal ball theories: I do think we will see some govt. debt based crisis/dollar crisis before this cycle of bad news end in addition to inflation. I was expecting that to unfold around ~2028 when social security/medicare force government to choose their poison pill - dollar devaluation (or) taxation. Time will tell.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Need this sweet fake pump to continue two three days so I can offload at profit rinse repeat.
I do hope we don't dump soon
I do hope we don't dump soon
- firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Here comes the end of the day dump
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
R.i.P now e.h.?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Anybody buying today? And where is AnnetteL?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
She has her very own thread across town in Personal Investments. It's very nice, with cozy chairs, and chamomile tea.
I bought a lot of Vanguard S&P 500 today, selling out most of my Consumer Staples and Utilities tilts into it. (And I tax loss harvested from TSM into it, too.)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Only with each paycheck. I think the market is close to finding a bottom, but I don't know if we are there yet. Need to actually see two days of green.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don't think it's a real bottom if that happens. We could have a relief rally, but if I had to bet, we will be lower this summer. Everyone has an opinion, though, and mine is no better than anyone else's and is probably worse!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
My gut tells me that we are 5-10% above the bottom. Could just be the garlic fries though.
43% Total Stock Market | 53% Consumer Staples | 4% Short Term Reserves
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Personally, I don't care where the bottom is. I care about what the market will be worth in 10 or 20 years. Or 20 or 30.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
No one knows anything, which is why I am not trying to time a bottom. But I really can't remember the last time we had two days of green in a row. March maybe? It seems like we have these massive 2-3% rallies once every two weeks and then resume our move downward.Tom_T wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 2:45 pmI don't think it's a real bottom if that happens. We could have a relief rally, but if I had to bet, we will be lower this summer. Everyone has an opinion, though, and mine is no better than anyone else's and is probably worse!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm thinking I'll be making a purchase on Thursday.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
More like two weeks ago (May 2-4), according to the charts for SP 500, VTI and NASDAQ. I figured that was enough spot checking that if you were using another measure you could show your work.atdharris wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 2:51 pmNo one knows anything, which is why I am not trying to time a bottom. But I really can't remember the last time we had two days of green in a row. March maybe? It seems like we have these massive 2-3% rallies once every two weeks and then resume our move downward.Tom_T wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 2:45 pmI don't think it's a real bottom if that happens. We could have a relief rally, but if I had to bet, we will be lower this summer. Everyone has an opinion, though, and mine is no better than anyone else's and is probably worse!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
"No one knows anything" but Warren Buffett is buying.atdharris wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 2:51 pmNo one knows anything, which is why I am not trying to time a bottom. But I really can't remember the last time we had two days of green in a row. March maybe? It seems like we have these massive 2-3% rallies once every two weeks and then resume our move downward.Tom_T wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 2:45 pmI don't think it's a real bottom if that happens. We could have a relief rally, but if I had to bet, we will be lower this summer. Everyone has an opinion, though, and mine is no better than anyone else's and is probably worse!
"Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) turned into an active buyer of stocks during the volatile first quarter, especially in the quarter's final six weeks, after a long stretch of muted purchases.
Investors already know that Buffett's Berkshire doubled down on Chevron (CVX) in Q1 and has been snapping up Occidental Petroleum (OXY) with oil prices near highs. The conglomerate also added to top holding Apple (AAPL) during the stock's Q1 sell-off, and bought more shares of Activision Blizzard (ATVI)."
https://www.investors.com/news/warren-b ... ay-q1-13f/
The dude dropped $41B in net stock buys against $7B in net sales.
There will be some oversold bargains out there with good fundamentals if you are willing to buy into individual companies. I can see why he gambled on more ATVI given the $95 offer...we'll know soonish if it closes. AAPL seems less of a gamble.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Buffett also famously doesn’t try to time the market, so I wouldn’t take his stock buying as any kind of indicator that the bottom is in. It might be, but there’s no way to know.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 3:17 pm"No one knows anything" but Warren Buffett is buying.atdharris wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 2:51 pmNo one knows anything, which is why I am not trying to time a bottom. But I really can't remember the last time we had two days of green in a row. March maybe? It seems like we have these massive 2-3% rallies once every two weeks and then resume our move downward.Tom_T wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 2:45 pmI don't think it's a real bottom if that happens. We could have a relief rally, but if I had to bet, we will be lower this summer. Everyone has an opinion, though, and mine is no better than anyone else's and is probably worse!
"Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) turned into an active buyer of stocks during the volatile first quarter, especially in the quarter's final six weeks, after a long stretch of muted purchases.
Investors already know that Buffett's Berkshire doubled down on Chevron (CVX) in Q1 and has been snapping up Occidental Petroleum (OXY) with oil prices near highs. The conglomerate also added to top holding Apple (AAPL) during the stock's Q1 sell-off, and bought more shares of Activision Blizzard (ATVI)."
https://www.investors.com/news/warren-b ... ay-q1-13f/
The dude dropped $41B in net stock buys against $7B in net sales.
There will be some oversold bargains out there with good fundamentals if you are willing to buy into individual companies. I can see why he gambled on more ATVI given the $95 offer...we'll know soonish if it closes. AAPL seems less of a gamble.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Buffett's moves show you even he has no idea how to time the market well. He sold airlines during the Covid crash and then didn't do much buying when the S&P fell to 2300. Now he is buying stock at 3900-4000.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I assume you mean that Buffett doesn't try to time the market by selling out of assets because he absolutely tries to time the market by accumulating cash and waiting for an opportunity. Berkshire Hathaway sat on a ton of Treasury bills the last few years because the market didn't present attractive options (aside from stock buy-backs):superjames1992 wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 3:35 pm Buffett also famously doesn’t try to time the market
That's from the "U.S. Treasury Bills" section, where WB explains why Berkshire has $144 billion of cash and equivalents.Buffett's 2021 Shareholder Letter wrote: Berkshire’s current 80%-or-so position in businesses is a consequence of my failure to find entire companies or small portions thereof (that is, marketable stocks) which meet our criteria for longterm holding.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Curious — is there an easy way to track Buffet’s moves? Might try to mimmick him for the heck of it.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You can track the activity of funds on sites such as Whalewisdom but it will lag their purchase dates quite a bit. They file 13-F a month or so after the quarter closes for example 13Fs for last quarter is just coming out. You can also have alerts for any 13D/G filings which is when a fund makes a large purchase (I think greater than 5% stake in company).This normally needs to be filed within 10 days.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Whenever the market starts tanking, I always binge Star Trek and hope for a world, where I don't have to deal with money other than with Ferengi.
Of course, I like the first rule of acquisition given the market:
"Once you have their money... you never give it back."
and
"Never spend more for an acquisition than you have to."
https://memory-beta.fandom.com/wiki/Fer ... cquisition
Of course, I like the first rule of acquisition given the market:
"Once you have their money... you never give it back."
and
"Never spend more for an acquisition than you have to."
https://memory-beta.fandom.com/wiki/Fer ... cquisition
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Buy BRK.ANewbieBogle007 wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 5:17 pmCurious — is there an easy way to track Buffet’s moves? Might try to mimmick him for the heck of it.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Well Elon Musk says we'll probably be in a recession lasting up to 18 months.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 3:17 pm"No one knows anything" but Warren Buffett is buying.atdharris wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 2:51 pmNo one knows anything, which is why I am not trying to time a bottom. But I really can't remember the last time we had two days of green in a row. March maybe? It seems like we have these massive 2-3% rallies once every two weeks and then resume our move downward.Tom_T wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 2:45 pmI don't think it's a real bottom if that happens. We could have a relief rally, but if I had to bet, we will be lower this summer. Everyone has an opinion, though, and mine is no better than anyone else's and is probably worse!
"Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) turned into an active buyer of stocks during the volatile first quarter, especially in the quarter's final six weeks, after a long stretch of muted purchases.
Investors already know that Buffett's Berkshire doubled down on Chevron (CVX) in Q1 and has been snapping up Occidental Petroleum (OXY) with oil prices near highs. The conglomerate also added to top holding Apple (AAPL) during the stock's Q1 sell-off, and bought more shares of Activision Blizzard (ATVI)."
https://www.investors.com/news/warren-b ... ay-q1-13f/
The dude dropped $41B in net stock buys against $7B in net sales.
There will be some oversold bargains out there with good fundamentals if you are willing to buy into individual companies. I can see why he gambled on more ATVI given the $95 offer...we'll know soonish if it closes. AAPL seems less of a gamble.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium
One of these two men will be wrong.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Warren Buffett buying stocks doesn't mean he's predicting there will or won't be a recession.strummer6969 wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 8:38 pm...
Well Elon Musk says we'll probably be in a recession lasting up to 18 months.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium
One of these two men will be wrong.
I don't even know if Elon Musk saying there will be a recession means he believes that, Elon says lots of stuff.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don't even think it's Buffett buying anymore.JoMoney wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 8:49 pmWarren Buffett buying stocks doesn't mean he's predicting there will or won't be a recession.strummer6969 wrote: ↑Mon May 16, 2022 8:38 pm...
Well Elon Musk says we'll probably be in a recession lasting up to 18 months.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium
One of these two men will be wrong.
I don't even know if Elon Musk saying there will be a recession means he believes that, Elon says lots of stuff.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You mean the guy who pumped up Dogecoin can't be taken seriously
In a recent paper Larry Summers put the chance of a recession at 100%. Of course I'll take any 100% prediction with a grain of salt.
The views on where we're going next are so divergent, more than any other time I can recall.