I don't trust investment banks, or their predictions. It's always a great time to invest when advising clients, but then they turn around and short the market. Market goes up, they make money. Market goes down, they make money.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:04 am Goldman sachs says stocks could fall another 11% to 18%.
U.S. stocks in free fall
-
- Posts: 978
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:59 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Welcome aboard the Boglehead train! You're a fast learner. Forester is almost as accurate as Cramer when it comes to contrary indicatorsDeucesAx wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 8:59 amI am relatively new to this board but Forester saying it's going to get worse is the big BUY BUY BUY signal I have been waiting for, right?Forester wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 8:44 am Suckers rally, reflexive dip buying. True bargain hunting will be at 3,100, don't fall for this. If your great aunt passed away and you're sitting on $50k to invest, my advice is wait until November, wait until ARKK is seeing panic selling, wait until Rolex is 20% lower than today, be patient.
-
- Posts: 1516
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:52 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Please clarify. Are you stating that all investment banks purposely mislead their clients in order to sway the market to their advantage?strummer6969 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:27 amI don't trust investment banks, or their predictions. It's always a great time to invest when advising clients, but then they turn around and short the market. Market goes up, they make money. Market goes down, they make money.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:04 am Goldman sachs says stocks could fall another 11% to 18%.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Yeah. I'm looking at it but replacing the long bonds with 10 year TIPS.technovelist wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:18 amThere's always the Permanent Portfolio, which is supposed to cater for all swans of any color.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:04 amWell yes…but if you’ve been buying dips based on the idea that max drawdown is 60%ish you are likely very unhappy or may no longer have the reserves you expected to have to weather those other problems.
I always wonder how much it’s worth to prepare for black swans…is it worth 5-10% of the portfolio?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Unless you're talking about Zillow stock's poor performance since the ARK-fueled peak, and the hammer after winding down Zillow Offers, your house's Zestimate is off-topic.
... Oh, looks like the discussion was moved.
... Oh, looks like the discussion was moved.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
-
- Posts: 793
- Joined: Sat Feb 12, 2022 1:14 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Morgan stanley forecasting $6 gas by end of summer, national average not just california.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It just looks like this market is going to dance around the -20% on the S&P. Each time we get there, we seem to bounce. Probably algorithms buying.
-
- Posts: 4816
- Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 4:44 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Could be 100%. A meteor could wipe out the earth. I guess it would suck, but I wouldn't be around to care anymorenigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 9:45 amCould be 90%alfaspider wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 9:04 amNobody knows nothin. Max drawdown could be 20% or 60%.Forester wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 8:44 am Suckers rally, reflexive dip buying. True bargain hunting will be at 3,100, don't fall for this. If your great aunt passed away and you're sitting on $50k to invest, my advice is wait until November, wait until ARKK is seeing panic selling, wait until Rolex is 20% lower than today, be patient.
That would suck.
Anyhow, a drawdown beyond that of the great depression would probably require something pretty calamitous to happen beyond a simple financial crisis. I guess full blown WWIII with nukes might get us there.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
But folks will just say: Don't Look Up.alfaspider wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:40 amCould be 100%. A meteor could wipe out the earth. I guess it would suck, but I wouldn't be around to care anymorenigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 9:45 amCould be 90%alfaspider wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 9:04 amNobody knows nothin. Max drawdown could be 20% or 60%.Forester wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 8:44 am Suckers rally, reflexive dip buying. True bargain hunting will be at 3,100, don't fall for this. If your great aunt passed away and you're sitting on $50k to invest, my advice is wait until November, wait until ARKK is seeing panic selling, wait until Rolex is 20% lower than today, be patient.
That would suck.
Anyhow, a drawdown beyond that of the great depression would probably require something pretty calamitous to happen beyond a simple financial crisis. I guess full blown WWIII with nukes might get us there.
-
- Posts: 1516
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:52 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You are correct. The naysayers will be everywhere but somebody will still be strong and positive throught the calamity. In case it all doesn't end in a big ball of fire I don't want to be remembered as the whiner in the corner during the darkest moments.rockstar wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:44 amBut folks will just say: Don't Look Up.alfaspider wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:40 amCould be 100%. A meteor could wipe out the earth. I guess it would suck, but I wouldn't be around to care anymorenigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 9:45 amCould be 90%alfaspider wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 9:04 amNobody knows nothin. Max drawdown could be 20% or 60%.Forester wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 8:44 am Suckers rally, reflexive dip buying. True bargain hunting will be at 3,100, don't fall for this. If your great aunt passed away and you're sitting on $50k to invest, my advice is wait until November, wait until ARKK is seeing panic selling, wait until Rolex is 20% lower than today, be patient.
That would suck.
Anyhow, a drawdown beyond that of the great depression would probably require something pretty calamitous to happen beyond a simple financial crisis. I guess full blown WWIII with nukes might get us there.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Makes sense. Crude oil gets cracked (a process) which then generates a combination of:smooth_rough wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:34 am Morgan stanley forecasting $6 gas by end of summer, national average not just california.
- gasoline for cars,
- heating oil,
- jet fuel,
- etc.
Jet fuel demand is through the roof.
Also, US has limited refining capacity.
Crude oil price of $100 != gas price of $6, unless there is limited refining capacity.
Gas should be around $3.5-4 at WTI price of $100.
I don't carry a signature because people are easily offended.
-
- Posts: 978
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:59 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Not at all and not even Goldman in particular, as I have never used them. An investment bank I had used in the past, which shall remain nameless, advised me that it was a good time to lump sum invest and then a few weeks later had made a substantial S&P put position. I can't say whether all, or even most, investment banks do that. Just my own personal experience has led to a general distrust of investment banks. FWIW I don't think they're misleading clients, so much as hedging. Perhaps someone with more insight can chime in as to whether this is typical and the reasons for it. Anyway, I still hold firm to my statement that I don't trust predictions from anyone in the financial media.Californiastate wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:32 amPlease clarify. Are you stating that all investment banks purposely mislead their clients in order to sway the market to their advantage?strummer6969 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:27 amI don't trust investment banks, or their predictions. It's always a great time to invest when advising clients, but then they turn around and short the market. Market goes up, they make money. Market goes down, they make money.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:04 am Goldman sachs says stocks could fall another 11% to 18%.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I have another $300K of dry power left in this round.
My plan is to buy $100K when/if S&P hits 3700, another $100K at 3500, and $100K at 3300.
My plan is to buy $100K when/if S&P hits 3700, another $100K at 3500, and $100K at 3300.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Please continue the real estate market discussion here: Tales from this insane real estate marketrunninginvestor wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:19 amWhen they're in the business of buying and selling houses for profit, their incentives are definitely not to provide decreasing estimates of housing markets and prices.
This thread is for the US market (decreasing).
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Makes no sense. Why not wait simply until 3300 and invest it all? If you are going to market time, do it right.
(I would have already dumped it all in when I had it, then went about my life)
-
- Posts: 16054
- Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
There's no doing it right. Notice they said "when/if," that's why they're layering it like that. Just to be clear, I'm not advertising the strategy, just explaining why they suggested layering.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Ah yes, I saw that, but decided to ignore it. Plus, one could argue the qualifier only counts for the first layer (sort of, but that’s a stretch.)Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 11:34 amThere's no doing it right. Notice they said "when/if," that's why they're layering it like that. Just to be clear, I'm not advertising the strategy, just explaining why they suggested layering.
All in good fun.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I was wondering the same thing. What if it stopped at 3700? Doesn't that leave $200K of dry powder?
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I am investing based on my schedule every 2 weeks, keep buying on the way down so far
I am down quite a lot already, if it does not go all the way down to 3300 I could use that dry power to buy RE or simply keep me secure(mentally).
Hope it won't go down though however my guess is clear as mud.
I could see this a win-win opportunity since I don't technically need the fund in the next 5-10years.
I am down quite a lot already, if it does not go all the way down to 3300 I could use that dry power to buy RE or simply keep me secure(mentally).
Hope it won't go down though however my guess is clear as mud.
I could see this a win-win opportunity since I don't technically need the fund in the next 5-10years.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I think, you need to set a bottom and a top to fully deploy or find another asset group. The problem is that if this is really a bear, then we're going to experience bear rallies for a while.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The fund I've been directing paycheck contributions to is at 18.6x currently, I guess. Then again, I did start buying near the peak, so yeah, it feels cheap comparatively lol.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Oh. That 4% up but still 15% down thing. That was a rally? I thought it was volatility. Now March - that was a rally.
Small growth has had no rallies at all since the down, down, down began.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Taper in progress.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Jeremy Grantham says the S&P 500 will fall at least 40% from its peak as the stock market bubble looks a lot like 2000 all over again - https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ain-2022-5
What are you buying ?Tech wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 11:45 am I am investing based on my schedule every 2 weeks, keep buying on the way down so far
I am down quite a lot already, if it does not go all the way down to 3300 I could use that dry power to buy RE or simply keep me secure(mentally).
Hope it won't go down though however my guess is clear as mud.
I could see this a win-win opportunity since I don't technically need the fund in the next 5-10years.
-
- Posts: 4816
- Joined: Wed Sep 09, 2015 4:44 pm
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Grantham is a permabear. Not sure why he's worth listening to.aragorn1 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 12:18 pm Jeremy Grantham says the S&P 500 will fall at least 40% from its peak as the stock market bubble looks a lot like 2000 all over again - https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ain-2022-5
What are you buying ?Tech wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 11:45 am I am investing based on my schedule every 2 weeks, keep buying on the way down so far
I am down quite a lot already, if it does not go all the way down to 3300 I could use that dry power to buy RE or simply keep me secure(mentally).
Hope it won't go down though however my guess is clear as mud.
I could see this a win-win opportunity since I don't technically need the fund in the next 5-10years.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Forget the Rebound, Grantham’s GMO Says Stock Bubble Is Bursting:alfaspider wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 12:21 pm Grantham is a permabear. Not sure why he's worth listening to.
Published January 18, 2019.A multiyear bubble in American stocks is now deflating as sentiment turns negative despite solid fundamentals, and investors should own as few U.S. equities as possible, according to GMO LLC.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's also funny that they change their predictions quite frequently.Tom_T wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:10 amAnd? Everyone and his brother is making predictions.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:04 am Goldman sachs says stocks could fall another 11% to 18%.
Also, the level of precision is laughable. 11 percent. 18 percent.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
-
- Posts: 298
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2020 5:07 pm
- Location: Montana
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It's true stocks could fall another 11% to 18%. They could also fall another 4% to 7%. They could also rise 15% to 20%. Stocks could also fall another 32% to 46%. Stocks could also fall another 50%. Stocks could also rise by 4.3%. All of these things could happen to stocks.lostdog wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 12:36 pmIt's also funny that they change their predictions quite frequently.Tom_T wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:10 amAnd? Everyone and his brother is making predictions.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:04 am Goldman sachs says stocks could fall another 11% to 18%.
Also, the level of precision is laughable. 11 percent. 18 percent.
- familythriftmd
- Posts: 772
- Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:15 am
- Location: Wisconsin
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I just logged into Fidelity NetBenefits. That was pretty dumb. It's more fun to just watch the indices on Google and not my own money. The red bold numbers look scary!
-
- Posts: 169
- Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:00 pm
- Location: Madison, WI
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Other than my 401k, I'm on the sidelines in t-bills and gold. I'd love to get back in. I keep hoping it goes lower even though I feel the pain on the 401k side, but that mechanism is buying every other week on the way down, so I don't feel terrible about it.incognito_man wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It makes you self-absorbed, not bad. (And not meant as an insult. You asked! ) Those in the early years of their retirement, or were planning to retire soon, are feeling the pain.incognito_man wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Same here. In between my TSP contributions and automated taxable brokerage deposits, I have money going in roughly every two weeks. I just try not to think about having maxed my IRA in January.incognito_man wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
-
- Posts: 169
- Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:00 pm
- Location: Madison, WI
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
This is where I am at as well, I'm still obviously contributing my 8% to get my employer's 12% match (my company has a great 401(k) program), but am sitting on the sidelines otherwise. Currently allocated at (and future allocations are) 65% FXAIX and 35% BNYM Mellon Stable Value Fund Class M in my 401(k). I plan to adjust that allocation back to 100/0 both up/down every 100 points on S&P to 3500 or 4500. I'm guilty of market timing, but lucky that I timed it very well where I end up ahead in either scenario. The downside was a more conservative AA which I was fine with as well.rockstar wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:19 pmOther than my 401k, I'm on the sidelines in t-bills and gold. I'd love to get back in. I keep hoping it goes lower even though I feel the pain on the 401k side, but that mechanism is buying every other week on the way down, so I don't feel terrible about it.incognito_man wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
-
- Posts: 169
- Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:00 pm
- Location: Madison, WI
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I did ask! And I do understand the that perspective. My parents are in that phase currently but are not drawing down on their equity position. They have an SPIA and father's SS that are funding them currently (along w/ mother's part-time work). So I don't feel TOO guilty about my self-absorbed positionexodusNH wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:22 pmIt makes you self-absorbed, not bad. (And not meant as an insult. You asked! ) Those in the early years of their retirement, or were planning to retire soon, are feeling the pain.incognito_man wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
It frightens me a bit, especially the prospect of a decade of flat returns like 2002-2012. I'm 47 in the tech field. Age discrimination is a thing. If the economy goes sideways and I am unemployed, my retirement will be greatly compromised. Assuming 4% is a safe withdrawal, at my current portfolio, that's only $36k per year of income. No pension or inheritance coming my way.incognito_man wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:44 pmI did ask! And I do understand the that perspective. My parents are in that phase currently but are not drawing down on their equity position. They have an SPIA and father's SS that are funding them currently (along w/ mother's part-time work). So I don't feel TOO guilty about my self-absorbed positionexodusNH wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:22 pmIt makes you self-absorbed, not bad. (And not meant as an insult. You asked! ) Those in the early years of their retirement, or were planning to retire soon, are feeling the pain.incognito_man wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
I was planning on 6% a year for the next 15 to get me to a solid spot for retirement. (And also assuming inflation was going to stay "normal".)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
End of the day drop - it's like clockwork!
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I don't think that makes you a bad person, I feel the same way. This downturn is perfect timing - I just got a 13% salary increase, and my old salary was already more than enough to pay the bills & save. All that 13% is going straight into investments when it starts showing up in my paycheck in a couple of weeks. The market can keep falling. I have roughly 10 years to retirement.incognito_man wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
You need to read more KlangFool posts. Are you making any adjustments to your strategy/IPS? If not, at what point do you make these adjustments?exodusNH wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 2:08 pmIt frightens me a bit, especially the prospect of a decade of flat returns like 2002-2012. I'm 47 in the tech field. Age discrimination is a thing. If the economy goes sideways and I am unemployed, my retirement will be greatly compromised. Assuming 4% is a safe withdrawal, at my current portfolio, that's only $36k per year of income. No pension or inheritance coming my way.incognito_man wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:44 pmI did ask! And I do understand the that perspective. My parents are in that phase currently but are not drawing down on their equity position. They have an SPIA and father's SS that are funding them currently (along w/ mother's part-time work). So I don't feel TOO guilty about my self-absorbed positionexodusNH wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:22 pmIt makes you self-absorbed, not bad. (And not meant as an insult. You asked! ) Those in the early years of their retirement, or were planning to retire soon, are feeling the pain.incognito_man wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
I was planning on 6% a year for the next 15 to get me to a solid spot for retirement. (And also assuming inflation was going to stay "normal".)
Bogleheads® emphasize regular saving, broad diversification, and sticking to one's investment plan regardless of market conditions.
- familythriftmd
- Posts: 772
- Joined: Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:15 am
- Location: Wisconsin
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Even if you took a paycut but still worked, that would help even out SORR.exodusNH wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 2:08 pm
It frightens me a bit, especially the prospect of a decade of flat returns like 2002-2012. I'm 47 in the tech field. Age discrimination is a thing. If the economy goes sideways and I am unemployed, my retirement will be greatly compromised. Assuming 4% is a safe withdrawal, at my current portfolio, that's only $36k per year of income. No pension or inheritance coming my way.
I was planning on 6% a year for the next 15 to get me to a solid spot for retirement. (And also assuming inflation was going to stay "normal".)
- Youngblood
- Posts: 712
- Joined: Fri Jan 04, 2008 6:18 am
- willthrill81
- Posts: 32250
- Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:17 pm
- Location: USA
- Contact:
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I'm hearing reports of diesel very possibly reaching $10/gal. by the end of the summer. That would exacerbate inflation as virtually all goods are transported via ground by diesel, push down corporate profits, and bring another headwind for stocks.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:34 am Morgan stanley forecasting $6 gas by end of summer, national average not just california.
Hard times here with potentially harder times coming.
Last edited by willthrill81 on Thu May 19, 2022 3:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I did the same thing. Its painful now but wont matter in 10-20 years.egri wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:41 pmSame here. In between my TSP contributions and automated taxable brokerage deposits, I have money going in roughly every two weeks. I just try not to think about having maxed my IRA in January.incognito_man wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
I do read all of his. No, not adjusting my portfolio. Not selling anything. The only change I've made is that 1/3 of my EF is in VTIP instead of a HYSA.dvvader wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 2:44 pmYou need to read more KlangFool posts. Are you making any adjustments to your strategy/IPS? If not, at what point do you make these adjustments?exodusNH wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 2:08 pmIt frightens me a bit, especially the prospect of a decade of flat returns like 2002-2012. I'm 47 in the tech field. Age discrimination is a thing. If the economy goes sideways and I am unemployed, my retirement will be greatly compromised. Assuming 4% is a safe withdrawal, at my current portfolio, that's only $36k per year of income. No pension or inheritance coming my way.incognito_man wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:44 pmI did ask! And I do understand the that perspective. My parents are in that phase currently but are not drawing down on their equity position. They have an SPIA and father's SS that are funding them currently (along w/ mother's part-time work). So I don't feel TOO guilty about my self-absorbed positionexodusNH wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:22 pmIt makes you self-absorbed, not bad. (And not meant as an insult. You asked! ) Those in the early years of their retirement, or were planning to retire soon, are feeling the pain.incognito_man wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
I was planning on 6% a year for the next 15 to get me to a solid spot for retirement. (And also assuming inflation was going to stay "normal".)
Because bonds are down as well, I haven't even had to rebalance. (My bond choices aren't terrible in my 401k, but they're not fantastic either. They've declined more than BND even though they have about the same duration.)
I don't really have major expenses. My mortgage is $900 per month, with 13 years remaining. (Refied right before rates went up.) Other than a very small 0% credit card balance, no debt. Car is 3 years old and paid off. (And due to COVID, I've only put 14,000 miles on it.)
But because I only have Social Security to look forward to (assuming at the 75% level), I was hoping for the 6% to let me coast through retirement without having to worry about finances.
COVID has certainly made it easier to save! Biggest discretionary expenses prior to that were going out to dinner Fridays and Saturdays. (Usually alcohol wound up being more than the food, and we like good food!)
(Though I bet most of my COVID dinner savings were spent on a new roof at COVID-inflated prices.)
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
The anticipation of the S&P closing in bear territory is killing me. What a tease we didn't make it today.
- Youngblood
- Posts: 712
- Joined: Fri Jan 04, 2008 6:18 am
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
Be careful what you wish for.
"I made my money by selling too soon." |
Bernard M. Baruch
Re: U.S. stocks in free fall
That has me concerned, too, as that would also translate to home heating oil prices, which usually are a bit higher than diesel. I'd be looking at a $2,000/month oil bill from October-April. I only keep my house at 66 now. It will be a VERY cold winter if this happens.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 2:58 pmI'm hearing reports of diesel very possibly reaching $10/gal. by the end of the summer. That will exacerbate inflation as virtually all goods are transported via ground by diesel, push down corporate profits, and bring another headwind for stocks.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Thu May 19, 2022 10:34 am Morgan stanley forecasting $6 gas by end of summer, national average not just california.
Hard times here with potentially harder times coming.
I've actually scheduled a solar installer to take a look at my house next month. With solar, a heat pump might an option for at least some of the heating season. Even if I financed that purchase, the monthly loan payment would be far cheaper than that.
I expect electricity prices will be increasing in July when the next rate reset is permitted due to natural gas prices.
But, we're off-topic.
For now, it's stay the course. 401k contributions to 100 equities every two weeks. (Bond allocation is I Bonds and an old whole life policy that's paying 4.4%.)