U.S. stocks in free fall

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strummer6969
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by strummer6969 »

smooth_rough wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:04 am Goldman sachs says stocks could fall another 11% to 18%.
I don't trust investment banks, or their predictions. It's always a great time to invest when advising clients, but then they turn around and short the market. Market goes up, they make money. Market goes down, they make money.
veggivet
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by veggivet »

DeucesAx wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 8:59 am
Forester wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 8:44 am Suckers rally, reflexive dip buying. True bargain hunting will be at 3,100, don't fall for this. If your great aunt passed away and you're sitting on $50k to invest, my advice is wait until November, wait until ARKK is seeing panic selling, wait until Rolex is 20% lower than today, be patient.
I am relatively new to this board but Forester saying it's going to get worse is the big BUY BUY BUY signal I have been waiting for, right? :sharebeer
Welcome aboard the Boglehead train! You're a fast learner. Forester is almost as accurate as Cramer when it comes to contrary indicators 😉
Californiastate
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Californiastate »

strummer6969 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:27 am
smooth_rough wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:04 am Goldman sachs says stocks could fall another 11% to 18%.
I don't trust investment banks, or their predictions. It's always a great time to invest when advising clients, but then they turn around and short the market. Market goes up, they make money. Market goes down, they make money.
Please clarify. Are you stating that all investment banks purposely mislead their clients in order to sway the market to their advantage?
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

technovelist wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:18 am
nigel_ht wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:04 am
atdharris wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:49 am
nigel_ht wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:45 am
alfaspider wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:04 am

Nobody knows nothin. Max drawdown could be 20% or 60%.
Could be 90%

That would suck.
If we drop 90% from ATHs, I think there would be much bigger problems going on in the world/country than the stock market.
Well yes…but if you’ve been buying dips based on the idea that max drawdown is 60%ish you are likely very unhappy or may no longer have the reserves you expected to have to weather those other problems.

I always wonder how much it’s worth to prepare for black swans…is it worth 5-10% of the portfolio?
There's always the Permanent Portfolio, which is supposed to cater for all swans of any color. :D
Yeah. I'm looking at it but replacing the long bonds with 10 year TIPS.
drk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

Unless you're talking about Zillow stock's poor performance since the ARK-fueled peak, and the hammer after winding down Zillow Offers, your house's Zestimate is off-topic.

... Oh, looks like the discussion was moved.
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smooth_rough
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by smooth_rough »

Morgan stanley forecasting $6 gas by end of summer, national average not just california.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

It just looks like this market is going to dance around the -20% on the S&P. Each time we get there, we seem to bounce. Probably algorithms buying.
alfaspider
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alfaspider »

nigel_ht wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:45 am
alfaspider wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:04 am
Forester wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 8:44 am Suckers rally, reflexive dip buying. True bargain hunting will be at 3,100, don't fall for this. If your great aunt passed away and you're sitting on $50k to invest, my advice is wait until November, wait until ARKK is seeing panic selling, wait until Rolex is 20% lower than today, be patient.
Nobody knows nothin. Max drawdown could be 20% or 60%.
Could be 90%

That would suck.
Could be 100%. A meteor could wipe out the earth. I guess it would suck, but I wouldn't be around to care anymore :mrgreen:

Anyhow, a drawdown beyond that of the great depression would probably require something pretty calamitous to happen beyond a simple financial crisis. I guess full blown WWIII with nukes might get us there.
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

alfaspider wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:40 am
nigel_ht wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:45 am
alfaspider wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:04 am
Forester wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 8:44 am Suckers rally, reflexive dip buying. True bargain hunting will be at 3,100, don't fall for this. If your great aunt passed away and you're sitting on $50k to invest, my advice is wait until November, wait until ARKK is seeing panic selling, wait until Rolex is 20% lower than today, be patient.
Nobody knows nothin. Max drawdown could be 20% or 60%.
Could be 90%

That would suck.
Could be 100%. A meteor could wipe out the earth. I guess it would suck, but I wouldn't be around to care anymore :mrgreen:

Anyhow, a drawdown beyond that of the great depression would probably require something pretty calamitous to happen beyond a simple financial crisis. I guess full blown WWIII with nukes might get us there.
But folks will just say: Don't Look Up.
Californiastate
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Californiastate »

rockstar wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:44 am
alfaspider wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:40 am
nigel_ht wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:45 am
alfaspider wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:04 am
Forester wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 8:44 am Suckers rally, reflexive dip buying. True bargain hunting will be at 3,100, don't fall for this. If your great aunt passed away and you're sitting on $50k to invest, my advice is wait until November, wait until ARKK is seeing panic selling, wait until Rolex is 20% lower than today, be patient.
Nobody knows nothin. Max drawdown could be 20% or 60%.
Could be 90%

That would suck.
Could be 100%. A meteor could wipe out the earth. I guess it would suck, but I wouldn't be around to care anymore :mrgreen:

Anyhow, a drawdown beyond that of the great depression would probably require something pretty calamitous to happen beyond a simple financial crisis. I guess full blown WWIII with nukes might get us there.
But folks will just say: Don't Look Up.
You are correct. The naysayers will be everywhere but somebody will still be strong and positive throught the calamity. In case it all doesn't end in a big ball of fire I don't want to be remembered as the whiner in the corner during the darkest moments.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by AlphaLess »

smooth_rough wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:34 am Morgan stanley forecasting $6 gas by end of summer, national average not just california.
Makes sense. Crude oil gets cracked (a process) which then generates a combination of:
- gasoline for cars,
- heating oil,
- jet fuel,
- etc.

Jet fuel demand is through the roof.

Also, US has limited refining capacity.

Crude oil price of $100 != gas price of $6, unless there is limited refining capacity.

Gas should be around $3.5-4 at WTI price of $100.
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strummer6969
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by strummer6969 »

Californiastate wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:32 am
strummer6969 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:27 am
smooth_rough wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:04 am Goldman sachs says stocks could fall another 11% to 18%.
I don't trust investment banks, or their predictions. It's always a great time to invest when advising clients, but then they turn around and short the market. Market goes up, they make money. Market goes down, they make money.
Please clarify. Are you stating that all investment banks purposely mislead their clients in order to sway the market to their advantage?
Not at all and not even Goldman in particular, as I have never used them. An investment bank I had used in the past, which shall remain nameless, advised me that it was a good time to lump sum invest and then a few weeks later had made a substantial S&P put position. I can't say whether all, or even most, investment banks do that. Just my own personal experience has led to a general distrust of investment banks. FWIW I don't think they're misleading clients, so much as hedging. Perhaps someone with more insight can chime in as to whether this is typical and the reasons for it. Anyway, I still hold firm to my statement that I don't trust predictions from anyone in the financial media.
Tech
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tech »

I have another $300K of dry power left in this round.
My plan is to buy $100K when/if S&P hits 3700, another $100K at 3500, and $100K at 3300.
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

Tech wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:57 am I have another $300K of dry power left in this round.
My plan is to buy $100K when/if S&P hits 3700, another $100K at 3500, and $100K at 3300.
What's your plan if it doesn't get all the way down to 3300?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by LadyGeek »

runninginvestor wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:19 am
junior wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:12 am I don't trust Zillow at all. Zillow says my house went up 45k in the last 9 months while Redfin says it went up 12k. Seems to me Zillow is just telling people what they want to hear.
When they're in the business of buying and selling houses for profit, their incentives are definitely not to provide decreasing estimates of housing markets and prices.
Please continue the real estate market discussion here: Tales from this insane real estate market

This thread is for the US market (decreasing).
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Bogle-007 »

Tech wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:57 am I have another $300K of dry power left in this round.
My plan is to buy $100K when/if S&P hits 3700, another $100K at 3500, and $100K at 3300.
I’m in a similar boat. Did you buy this week? I bought yesterday.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Silverado »

Tech wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:57 am I have another $300K of dry power left in this round.
My plan is to buy $100K when/if S&P hits 3700, another $100K at 3500, and $100K at 3300.
Makes no sense. Why not wait simply until 3300 and invest it all? If you are going to market time, do it right.

(I would have already dumped it all in when I had it, then went about my life)
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Silverado wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 11:22 am
Tech wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:57 am I have another $300K of dry power left in this round.
My plan is to buy $100K when/if S&P hits 3700, another $100K at 3500, and $100K at 3300.
Makes no sense. Why not wait simply until 3300 and invest it all? If you are going to market time, do it right.

(I would have already dumped it all in when I had it, then went about my life)
There's no doing it right. Notice they said "when/if," that's why they're layering it like that. Just to be clear, I'm not advertising the strategy, just explaining why they suggested layering.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Silverado »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 11:34 am
Silverado wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 11:22 am
Tech wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:57 am I have another $300K of dry power left in this round.
My plan is to buy $100K when/if S&P hits 3700, another $100K at 3500, and $100K at 3300.
Makes no sense. Why not wait simply until 3300 and invest it all? If you are going to market time, do it right.

(I would have already dumped it all in when I had it, then went about my life)
There's no doing it right. Notice they said "when/if," that's why they're layering it like that. Just to be clear, I'm not advertising the strategy, just explaining why they suggested layering.
Ah yes, I saw that, but decided to ignore it. Plus, one could argue the qualifier only counts for the first layer (sort of, but that’s a stretch.)

All in good fun.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tom_T »

rockstar wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 11:08 am
Tech wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:57 am I have another $300K of dry power left in this round.
My plan is to buy $100K when/if S&P hits 3700, another $100K at 3500, and $100K at 3300.
What's your plan if it doesn't get all the way down to 3300?
I was wondering the same thing. What if it stopped at 3700? Doesn't that leave $200K of dry powder?
Tech
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tech »

I am investing based on my schedule every 2 weeks, keep buying on the way down so far :oops:
I am down quite a lot already, if it does not go all the way down to 3300 I could use that dry power to buy RE or simply keep me secure(mentally).
Hope it won't go down though however my guess is clear as mud.
I could see this a win-win opportunity since I don't technically need the fund in the next 5-10years.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

Tom_T wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 11:40 am
rockstar wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 11:08 am
Tech wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:57 am I have another $300K of dry power left in this round.
My plan is to buy $100K when/if S&P hits 3700, another $100K at 3500, and $100K at 3300.
What's your plan if it doesn't get all the way down to 3300?
I was wondering the same thing. What if it stopped at 3700? Doesn't that leave $200K of dry powder?
I think, you need to set a bottom and a top to fully deploy or find another asset group. The problem is that if this is really a bear, then we're going to experience bear rallies for a while.
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Beensabu »

freyj6 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 12:02 am
Beensabu wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:26 pm Who else has been DCAing into small growth this whole time? Anyone? Imma keep on doing that. :beer

Oh, that reminds me, we have beer! Imma go drink one.
Vanguard Small Growth (VBK) is still around 22x earnings. Definitely doesn't make me want to buy the dip or DCA in.

I guess that's the difference between growth and value though. "Cheap" means something very different to different people.
The fund I've been directing paycheck contributions to is at 18.6x currently, I guess. Then again, I did start buying near the peak, so yeah, it feels cheap comparatively lol.
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Beensabu »

rockstar wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:13 am
Beensabu wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 11:04 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:39 pm
Beensabu wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 9:26 pm Who else has been DCAing into small growth this whole time? Anyone? Imma keep on doing that. :beer

Oh, that reminds me, we have beer! Imma go drink one.
It's sell the rally. That's the new memo. Buy the dip is history.
What rally?
S&P 500 rallied up over the last week only to come crashing down yesterday.
Oh. That 4% up but still 15% down thing. That was a rally? I thought it was volatility. Now March - that was a rally.

Small growth has had no rallies at all since the down, down, down began.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by elderwise »

Taper in progress.
aragorn1
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by aragorn1 »

Jeremy Grantham says the S&P 500 will fall at least 40% from its peak as the stock market bubble looks a lot like 2000 all over again - https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ain-2022-5 :confused
Tech wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 11:45 am I am investing based on my schedule every 2 weeks, keep buying on the way down so far :oops:
I am down quite a lot already, if it does not go all the way down to 3300 I could use that dry power to buy RE or simply keep me secure(mentally).
Hope it won't go down though however my guess is clear as mud.
I could see this a win-win opportunity since I don't technically need the fund in the next 5-10years.
What are you buying ?
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alfaspider »

aragorn1 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 12:18 pm Jeremy Grantham says the S&P 500 will fall at least 40% from its peak as the stock market bubble looks a lot like 2000 all over again - https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ain-2022-5 :confused
Tech wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 11:45 am I am investing based on my schedule every 2 weeks, keep buying on the way down so far :oops:
I am down quite a lot already, if it does not go all the way down to 3300 I could use that dry power to buy RE or simply keep me secure(mentally).
Hope it won't go down though however my guess is clear as mud.
I could see this a win-win opportunity since I don't technically need the fund in the next 5-10years.
What are you buying ?
Grantham is a permabear. Not sure why he's worth listening to.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

Let's go shopping at the discount rack!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by drk »

alfaspider wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 12:21 pm Grantham is a permabear. Not sure why he's worth listening to.
Forget the Rebound, Grantham’s GMO Says Stock Bubble Is Bursting:
A multiyear bubble in American stocks is now deflating as sentiment turns negative despite solid fundamentals, and investors should own as few U.S. equities as possible, according to GMO LLC.
Published January 18, 2019. :oops:
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by lostdog »

Tom_T wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:10 am
smooth_rough wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:04 am Goldman sachs says stocks could fall another 11% to 18%.
And? Everyone and his brother is making predictions. :)

Also, the level of precision is laughable. 11 percent. 18 percent.
It's also funny that they change their predictions quite frequently.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by case_of_ennui »

lostdog wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 12:36 pm
Tom_T wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:10 am
smooth_rough wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:04 am Goldman sachs says stocks could fall another 11% to 18%.
And? Everyone and his brother is making predictions. :)

Also, the level of precision is laughable. 11 percent. 18 percent.
It's also funny that they change their predictions quite frequently.
It's true stocks could fall another 11% to 18%. They could also fall another 4% to 7%. They could also rise 15% to 20%. Stocks could also fall another 32% to 46%. Stocks could also fall another 50%. Stocks could also rise by 4.3%. All of these things could happen to stocks.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by familythriftmd »

I just logged into Fidelity NetBenefits. That was pretty dumb. It's more fun to just watch the indices on Google and not my own money. The red bold numbers look scary!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by incognito_man »

Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

incognito_man wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
Other than my 401k, I'm on the sidelines in t-bills and gold. I'd love to get back in. I keep hoping it goes lower even though I feel the pain on the 401k side, but that mechanism is buying every other week on the way down, so I don't feel terrible about it.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by exodusNH »

incognito_man wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
It makes you self-absorbed, not bad. (And not meant as an insult. You asked! :)) Those in the early years of their retirement, or were planning to retire soon, are feeling the pain.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by egri »

incognito_man wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
Same here. In between my TSP contributions and automated taxable brokerage deposits, I have money going in roughly every two weeks. I just try not to think about having maxed my IRA in January. :annoyed
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by incognito_man »

rockstar wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:19 pm
incognito_man wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
Other than my 401k, I'm on the sidelines in t-bills and gold. I'd love to get back in. I keep hoping it goes lower even though I feel the pain on the 401k side, but that mechanism is buying every other week on the way down, so I don't feel terrible about it.
This is where I am at as well, I'm still obviously contributing my 8% to get my employer's 12% match (my company has a great 401(k) program), but am sitting on the sidelines otherwise. Currently allocated at (and future allocations are) 65% FXAIX and 35% BNYM Mellon Stable Value Fund Class M in my 401(k). I plan to adjust that allocation back to 100/0 both up/down every 100 points on S&P to 3500 or 4500. I'm guilty of market timing, but lucky that I timed it very well where I end up ahead in either scenario. The downside was a more conservative AA which I was fine with as well.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by incognito_man »

exodusNH wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:22 pm
incognito_man wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
It makes you self-absorbed, not bad. (And not meant as an insult. You asked! :)) Those in the early years of their retirement, or were planning to retire soon, are feeling the pain.
I did ask! And I do understand the that perspective. My parents are in that phase currently but are not drawing down on their equity position. They have an SPIA and father's SS that are funding them currently (along w/ mother's part-time work). So I don't feel TOO guilty about my self-absorbed position :)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by exodusNH »

incognito_man wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:44 pm
exodusNH wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:22 pm
incognito_man wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
It makes you self-absorbed, not bad. (And not meant as an insult. You asked! :)) Those in the early years of their retirement, or were planning to retire soon, are feeling the pain.
I did ask! And I do understand the that perspective. My parents are in that phase currently but are not drawing down on their equity position. They have an SPIA and father's SS that are funding them currently (along w/ mother's part-time work). So I don't feel TOO guilty about my self-absorbed position :)
It frightens me a bit, especially the prospect of a decade of flat returns like 2002-2012. I'm 47 in the tech field. Age discrimination is a thing. If the economy goes sideways and I am unemployed, my retirement will be greatly compromised. Assuming 4% is a safe withdrawal, at my current portfolio, that's only $36k per year of income. No pension or inheritance coming my way.

I was planning on 6% a year for the next 15 to get me to a solid spot for retirement. (And also assuming inflation was going to stay "normal".)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

End of the day drop - it's like clockwork!
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Tim_in_GA »

incognito_man wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
I don't think that makes you a bad person, I feel the same way. This downturn is perfect timing - I just got a 13% salary increase, and my old salary was already more than enough to pay the bills & save. All that 13% is going straight into investments when it starts showing up in my paycheck in a couple of weeks. The market can keep falling. I have roughly 10 years to retirement.
dvvader
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by dvvader »

exodusNH wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 2:08 pm
incognito_man wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:44 pm
exodusNH wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:22 pm
incognito_man wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
It makes you self-absorbed, not bad. (And not meant as an insult. You asked! :)) Those in the early years of their retirement, or were planning to retire soon, are feeling the pain.
I did ask! And I do understand the that perspective. My parents are in that phase currently but are not drawing down on their equity position. They have an SPIA and father's SS that are funding them currently (along w/ mother's part-time work). So I don't feel TOO guilty about my self-absorbed position :)
It frightens me a bit, especially the prospect of a decade of flat returns like 2002-2012. I'm 47 in the tech field. Age discrimination is a thing. If the economy goes sideways and I am unemployed, my retirement will be greatly compromised. Assuming 4% is a safe withdrawal, at my current portfolio, that's only $36k per year of income. No pension or inheritance coming my way.

I was planning on 6% a year for the next 15 to get me to a solid spot for retirement. (And also assuming inflation was going to stay "normal".)
You need to read more KlangFool posts. Are you making any adjustments to your strategy/IPS? If not, at what point do you make these adjustments?
Bogleheads® emphasize regular saving, broad diversification, and sticking to one's investment plan regardless of market conditions.
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familythriftmd
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by familythriftmd »

exodusNH wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 2:08 pm
It frightens me a bit, especially the prospect of a decade of flat returns like 2002-2012. I'm 47 in the tech field. Age discrimination is a thing. If the economy goes sideways and I am unemployed, my retirement will be greatly compromised. Assuming 4% is a safe withdrawal, at my current portfolio, that's only $36k per year of income. No pension or inheritance coming my way.

I was planning on 6% a year for the next 15 to get me to a solid spot for retirement. (And also assuming inflation was going to stay "normal".)
Even if you took a paycut but still worked, that would help even out SORR.
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Youngblood
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Youngblood »

Ouch.
"I made my money by selling too soon." | Bernard M. Baruch
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by willthrill81 »

smooth_rough wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:34 am Morgan stanley forecasting $6 gas by end of summer, national average not just california.
I'm hearing reports of diesel very possibly reaching $10/gal. by the end of the summer. That would exacerbate inflation as virtually all goods are transported via ground by diesel, push down corporate profits, and bring another headwind for stocks.

Hard times here with potentially harder times coming.
Last edited by willthrill81 on Thu May 19, 2022 3:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Vtsax100 »

egri wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:41 pm
incognito_man wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
Same here. In between my TSP contributions and automated taxable brokerage deposits, I have money going in roughly every two weeks. I just try not to think about having maxed my IRA in January. :annoyed
I did the same thing. Its painful now but wont matter in 10-20 years.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by exodusNH »

dvvader wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 2:44 pm
exodusNH wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 2:08 pm
incognito_man wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:44 pm
exodusNH wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:22 pm
incognito_man wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:10 pm Am I a bad person because I'm rooting for the red every day? I'm in the accumulation phase of my life. I want the S&P to keep going down to the point where I start to liquidate assets to buy even more than my standard bi-weekly contributions.
It makes you self-absorbed, not bad. (And not meant as an insult. You asked! :)) Those in the early years of their retirement, or were planning to retire soon, are feeling the pain.
I did ask! And I do understand the that perspective. My parents are in that phase currently but are not drawing down on their equity position. They have an SPIA and father's SS that are funding them currently (along w/ mother's part-time work). So I don't feel TOO guilty about my self-absorbed position :)
It frightens me a bit, especially the prospect of a decade of flat returns like 2002-2012. I'm 47 in the tech field. Age discrimination is a thing. If the economy goes sideways and I am unemployed, my retirement will be greatly compromised. Assuming 4% is a safe withdrawal, at my current portfolio, that's only $36k per year of income. No pension or inheritance coming my way.

I was planning on 6% a year for the next 15 to get me to a solid spot for retirement. (And also assuming inflation was going to stay "normal".)
You need to read more KlangFool posts. Are you making any adjustments to your strategy/IPS? If not, at what point do you make these adjustments?
I do read all of his. No, not adjusting my portfolio. Not selling anything. The only change I've made is that 1/3 of my EF is in VTIP instead of a HYSA.

Because bonds are down as well, I haven't even had to rebalance. (My bond choices aren't terrible in my 401k, but they're not fantastic either. They've declined more than BND even though they have about the same duration.)

I don't really have major expenses. My mortgage is $900 per month, with 13 years remaining. (Refied right before rates went up.) Other than a very small 0% credit card balance, no debt. Car is 3 years old and paid off. (And due to COVID, I've only put 14,000 miles on it.)

But because I only have Social Security to look forward to (assuming at the 75% level), I was hoping for the 6% to let me coast through retirement without having to worry about finances.

COVID has certainly made it easier to save! Biggest discretionary expenses prior to that were going out to dinner Fridays and Saturdays. (Usually alcohol wound up being more than the food, and we like good food!)

(Though I bet most of my COVID dinner savings were spent on a new roof at COVID-inflated prices.)
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

The anticipation of the S&P closing in bear territory is killing me. What a tease we didn't make it today.
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Youngblood
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Youngblood »

Be careful what you wish for.
"I made my money by selling too soon." | Bernard M. Baruch
exodusNH
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by exodusNH »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 2:58 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 10:34 am Morgan stanley forecasting $6 gas by end of summer, national average not just california.
I'm hearing reports of diesel very possibly reaching $10/gal. by the end of the summer. That will exacerbate inflation as virtually all goods are transported via ground by diesel, push down corporate profits, and bring another headwind for stocks.

Hard times here with potentially harder times coming.
That has me concerned, too, as that would also translate to home heating oil prices, which usually are a bit higher than diesel. I'd be looking at a $2,000/month oil bill from October-April. I only keep my house at 66 now. It will be a VERY cold winter if this happens.

I've actually scheduled a solar installer to take a look at my house next month. With solar, a heat pump might an option for at least some of the heating season. Even if I financed that purchase, the monthly loan payment would be far cheaper than that.

I expect electricity prices will be increasing in July when the next rate reset is permitted due to natural gas prices.

But, we're off-topic.

For now, it's stay the course. 401k contributions to 100 equities every two weeks. (Bond allocation is I Bonds and an old whole life policy that's paying 4.4%.)
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