Be careful of AI investing hype

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Fallible
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by Fallible »

valleyrock wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 10:37 am
Valuethinker wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 9:44 am
valleyrock wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:30 am Heinz is using AI? Are they going to apply "AI" to photosynthesis? I don't think so.

One problem with all this hype is the failure to understand biology. Tech in general is linear. One line of code leads to the next, to put it simply. But when you throw in the nonlinearity of biology, things just don't work according to those linear perspectives. Oh, and us folks, we're animals, biological species, which throws a monkey wrench into the whole shebang.

When AI can produce ketchup in a replicator from its constituent atoms, now then we'll have something. Until then, AI is basically another form of vaporware, software that's promised, but never shows up. Maybe we need another term instead of vaporware. How about "vaporAI"? Goodness me, I have the vapors!
Consider how good natural language translation in Google has become-- a problem once deemed unsolvable. This is big stuff.

LLMs are capable of being non-linear. That's the whole point, they are emergent thinkers - they can do things their designers have not appreciated.

I don't have a good sense of how much is hype & how much is capability. I take notice of the fact that many of the initiators of this work (Geoffrey Hinton in particular) have publicly called for a halt until we figure out what the implications are and what the best controls are. They think it's serious enough to want to pause it.

So far what is publicly available seems a curiousity. But I don't imagine for one minute that's what is going on in the labs - that we are seeing anything like the state of the art.
Here's an interesting perspective on AI and the hype: https://www.theverge.com/23604075/ai-ch ... irror-test
Thanks for posting this important article written by human intelligence (H.I. :happy) on how the AI chatbots can affect the human brain, its emotions and psychology, i.e., why too many of us are inclined to then think maybe these machines are sentient. The article quotes some of the would-be-believers as saying they don't really think it's sentient, but there's still that feeling to contend with.

The author also writes (boldface mine):
Now, though, these computer programs are no longer relatively simple and have been designed in a way that encourages such delusions. In a blog post responding to reports of Bing’s “unhinged” conversations, Microsoft cautioned that the system “tries to respond or reflect in the tone in which it is being asked to provide responses.” It is a mimic trained on unfathomably vast stores of human text — an autocomplete that follows our lead. As noted in “Stochastic Parrots,” the famous paper critiquing AI language models that led to Google firing two of its ethical AI researchers, “coherence is in the eye of the beholder.” ...
But in a time of AI hype, it’s dangerous to encourage such illusions. It benefits no one: not the people building these systems nor their end users. What we know for certain is that Bing, ChatGPT, and other language models are not sentient, and neither are they reliable sources of information. They make things up and echo the beliefs we present them with. To give them the mantle of sentience — even semi-sentience — means bestowing them with undeserved authority — over both our emotions and the facts with which we understand in the world.
 

These illusions of sentience may be among the reasons for the billions being invested in A.I. and the chatbots, but FOMO is surely a big one and why the deeply flawed chatbot models such as ChatGPT were launched before many techs began warning the general public - and potential investors - about A.I. dangers ahead and called for a development pause and urgent need for regulation.

Thanks to OP Nisiprius for an important warning about "AI investing hype."
Last edited by Fallible on Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
rockstar
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by rockstar »

valleyrock wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:24 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:33 pm
adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:30 am NVDA is an interesting case.

It’s more like an AI infrastructure company.

Turns out GPUs are ideal for the type of compute required in AI and NVDA has a dominant position in this market.

I see no harm in holding a small portion just to go along with on the ride.
NVDA has produced the cores that ML libraries use for years. This is nothing new. What is new is that models keep getting better and processing power keeps getting faster.
Yes, but what are the models? I remember the days of neural networks. Actually they are still being hyped. Create a bunch of linkages with no fundamental basis, use "training," again undefined and with no fundamental basis, let it rip and publish a bunch of research about it.

Full explanation/revealing of the algorithms/models will really be necessary to understand this LLM, and, to bring this back on-topic, to get any idea as to the financial and investing ramifications of them. Unfortunately, we'll see a lot of applications, lots of research, hand-wringing, and jawboning without people agitating for honest explanations/a full reveal of how this data is being processed in these LLMs. While some people might think it's rocket science, I'll bet that at its core, this stuff is so simple that those behind it have no trouble complicating the hell out of it (to adapt a phrase).
My guess is that it’s NLP taken to another level. Not rocket science. But I can see these models taking a long time to train.
Lou354
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by Lou354 »

toddthebod wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 10:09 am As an accumulating investor who rebalances, I love stock market bubbles!
Ah, to be young again! :wink:
hppycamper
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by hppycamper »

theorist wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 12:58 pm I have some experience with this, and my two cents worth:

— Unlike many of the much-heralded current future trends (web3, quantum computing,…), machine learning and its close cousin — AI — have made startling practical progress in recent years. There are very real use cases, they are exponentiating, and it will eventually benefit many workers (and reshift some of the landscape for careers).

— However, the investing in this area is very bubblicious. NVIDIA is now priced at a price to sales ratio that reminds of stories like Cisco around the tech bubble. It may well be a big winner, but it is hard to see how that isn’t already more than priced in.

Some of smaller players being bid up are much less certain to be big players, and are already similarly overpriced!

So despite my view on the actual progress in ML and AI, I am not investing with any special focus on those companies.
Well said
hppycamper
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by hppycamper »

adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:00 pm I think it is a good point that human intelligence and learning comes from all our senses. Just look at a baby interacting with his or her environment. I don't think a Bot will ever be able to do this. Thus, whatever "intelligence" a Bot is able to achieve, it will be fundamentally different than human intellect... perhaps (hopefully) it will be complimentary.
There have been non-language-based models in development for years as well, autonomous driving models being an example. At some point, if it hasn't already, these models could start integrate with each other. Hard to imagine what that would look like.
rockstar
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by rockstar »

hppycamper wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:55 pm
adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:00 pm I think it is a good point that human intelligence and learning comes from all our senses. Just look at a baby interacting with his or her environment. I don't think a Bot will ever be able to do this. Thus, whatever "intelligence" a Bot is able to achieve, it will be fundamentally different than human intellect... perhaps (hopefully) it will be complimentary.
There have been non-language-based models in development for years as well, autonomous driving models being an example. At some point, if it hasn't already, these models could start integrate with each other. Hard to imagine what that would look like.
Ensemble models have been used for a long time. Check out Kaggle.
hppycamper
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by hppycamper »

rockstar wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 3:07 pm
hppycamper wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:55 pm
adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:00 pm I think it is a good point that human intelligence and learning comes from all our senses. Just look at a baby interacting with his or her environment. I don't think a Bot will ever be able to do this. Thus, whatever "intelligence" a Bot is able to achieve, it will be fundamentally different than human intellect... perhaps (hopefully) it will be complimentary.
There have been non-language-based models in development for years as well, autonomous driving models being an example. At some point, if it hasn't already, these models could start integrate with each other. Hard to imagine what that would look like.
Ensemble models have been used for a long time. Check out Kaggle.
Thank you!
the_wiki
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by the_wiki »

burritoLover wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 9:24 am I find it odd that the people who buy into hype (FOMO) appear to be the same people who typically panic sell. If you are that nervous when times are bad, you'd think you'd stay conservative in a boring portfolio all the time.
It's because often they are looking to get rich quick by investing money they can't really afford to lose.
rockstar
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by rockstar »

the_wiki wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 3:23 pm
burritoLover wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 9:24 am I find it odd that the people who buy into hype (FOMO) appear to be the same people who typically panic sell. If you are that nervous when times are bad, you'd think you'd stay conservative in a boring portfolio all the time.
It's because often they are looking to get rich quick by investing money they can't really afford to lose.
It’s because most people are poorly paid, so they figure they will take more risk since they’ll probably retire on social security anyway.
adave
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by adave »

I do index the vast majority of my portfolio and buy-and-hold hopefully for a very long term.

I also like to take smaller individual stock positions just for kicks and because I do enjoy following the market.

I'm guilty of buying a little NVDA and TSLA recently.

It's funny, I grew up watching my Dad follow the market and buy stocks (he still does at 82 yo today, even plays in options). I guess the apple doesn't fall from the tree although I never had much interest in the market in my younger days.

Anyway, I can think of a lot worse hobbies/interests.
Logan Roy
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by Logan Roy »

valleyrock wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:24 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:33 pm
adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:30 am NVDA is an interesting case.

It’s more like an AI infrastructure company.

Turns out GPUs are ideal for the type of compute required in AI and NVDA has a dominant position in this market.

I see no harm in holding a small portion just to go along with on the ride.
NVDA has produced the cores that ML libraries use for years. This is nothing new. What is new is that models keep getting better and processing power keeps getting faster.
Yes, but what are the models? I remember the days of neural networks. Actually they are still being hyped. Create a bunch of linkages with no fundamental basis, use "training," again undefined and with no fundamental basis, let it rip and publish a bunch of research about it.

Full explanation/revealing of the algorithms/models will really be necessary to understand this LLM, and, to bring this back on-topic, to get any idea as to the financial and investing ramifications of them. Unfortunately, we'll see a lot of applications, lots of research, hand-wringing, and jawboning without people agitating for honest explanations/a full reveal of how this data is being processed in these LLMs. While some people might think it's rocket science, I'll bet that at its core, this stuff is so simple that those behind it have no trouble complicating the hell out of it (to adapt a phrase).
They're still neural networks. The Transformer's a relatively new architecture. GPT's really just a stacking of Transformers that have read a lot of text. How and where the intelligence and reasoning emerge is as much of a mystery in ChatGPT as it is in us. But emergent behaviour is what happens when simple systems interact in ways that produce behaviour much more complex than the structure of those systems.

Langton's Ant is an example of emergent behaviour so simple the logic can be explained in a few words, yet the behaviour of different multiple state ants could fill encyclopaedias. And even if you code this Ant, which basically turns left or right, depending on what colour it's landed on, you still might struggle to explain where the complex behaviour emerges. And this is probably almost everything in natural world. We're reductionists by nature. Financial theory is reductionist. Yet playing with Langton's ant, you realise you can build things that you can't really understand. Not that it's impossible to explain with maths; just that it doesn't take a system getting much more complex than this before it would be incomprehensible. And that's why ML is so powerful. It find solutions in noise. If it had to think out solutions and algorithms, it would be limited by its own thinking – or by ours. As it is, emergent behaviours can solve problems the system and networks itself never need understand. It can use mathematical concepts and systems for solving problems we might not discover for another 10,000 years, because it's completely impartial. Same way the brain can generate consciousness without anything in the universe necessarily understanding consciousness. Much better way to solve things.

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Charles Joseph
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by Charles Joseph »

adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:30 am NVDA is an interesting case.

It’s more like an AI infrastructure company.

Turns out GPUs are ideal for the type of compute required in AI and NVDA has a dominant position in this market.

I see no harm in holding a small portion just to go along with on the ride.
I agree. NVIDIA is about 2.7% of my equity holdings. We'll see where we go from here.
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arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

Bill listed four Ps required for a financial bubble:

Promoters
The Public
Politicians
The Press

source: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/the-d ... dcast-207/
considering the recent inquiries in Congress a couple weeks ago and Sam Altman's presentation to them, I'd say many of the elements are there.

https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/2021/04 ... ob-pisani/
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rockstar
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by rockstar »

Logan Roy wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:19 pm
valleyrock wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:24 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:33 pm
adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:30 am NVDA is an interesting case.

It’s more like an AI infrastructure company.

Turns out GPUs are ideal for the type of compute required in AI and NVDA has a dominant position in this market.

I see no harm in holding a small portion just to go along with on the ride.
NVDA has produced the cores that ML libraries use for years. This is nothing new. What is new is that models keep getting better and processing power keeps getting faster.
Yes, but what are the models? I remember the days of neural networks. Actually they are still being hyped. Create a bunch of linkages with no fundamental basis, use "training," again undefined and with no fundamental basis, let it rip and publish a bunch of research about it.

Full explanation/revealing of the algorithms/models will really be necessary to understand this LLM, and, to bring this back on-topic, to get any idea as to the financial and investing ramifications of them. Unfortunately, we'll see a lot of applications, lots of research, hand-wringing, and jawboning without people agitating for honest explanations/a full reveal of how this data is being processed in these LLMs. While some people might think it's rocket science, I'll bet that at its core, this stuff is so simple that those behind it have no trouble complicating the hell out of it (to adapt a phrase).
They're still neural networks. The Transformer's a relatively new architecture. GPT's really just a stacking of Transformers that have read a lot of text. How and where the intelligence and reasoning emerge is as much of a mystery in ChatGPT as it is in us. But emergent behaviour is what happens when simple systems interact in ways that produce behaviour much more complex than the structure of those systems.

Langton's Ant is an example of emergent behaviour so simple the logic can be explained in a few words, yet the behaviour of different multiple state ants could fill encyclopaedias. And even if you code this Ant, which basically turns left or right, depending on what colour it's landed on, you still might struggle to explain where the complex behaviour emerges. And this is probably almost everything in natural world. We're reductionists by nature. Financial theory is reductionist. Yet playing with Langton's ant, you realise you can build things that you can't really understand. Not that it's impossible to explain with maths; just that it doesn't take a system getting much more complex than this before it would be incomprehensible. And that's why ML is so powerful. It find solutions in noise. If it had to think out solutions and algorithms, it would be limited by its own thinking – or by ours. As it is, emergent behaviours can solve problems the system and networks itself never need understand. It can use mathematical concepts and systems for solving problems we might not discover for another 10,000 years, because it's completely impartial. Same way the brain can generate consciousness without anything in the universe necessarily understanding consciousness. Much better way to solve things.

Image

Image
Neural networks are black boxes. You can infer how they behave through experiments. But it’s interesting to see what solutions they come up with based on the network design. As computers become more powerful, it’s going to be interesting to see how much more they can do. NV GPUs have very small memories right now.
adave
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by adave »

The emergent behavior of these systems is fascinating. However, would also seem to be extremely unpredictable.

Releasing this stuff into the wild right now might be a mistake......
rockstar
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by rockstar »

adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:49 pm The emergent behavior of these systems is fascinating. However, would also seem to be extremely unpredictable.

Releasing this stuff into the wild right now might be a mistake......
Not really. It’s better than Googling. I’d rather ask ChatGPT than waste time Googling sites and putting together the same answer. ChatGPT is more efficient. It’s not as current, but for most problems I’m using it for that doesn’t matter. I’d say Google is in trouble as it gets more widespread use. I wouldn’t want to be holding Google as an individual stock right now.
adave
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by adave »

GOOG up 41% YTD.

Seems many disagree with your take.
rockstar
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by rockstar »

adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:58 pm GOOG up 41% YTD.

Seems many disagree with your take.
They’re diversified across other businesses. But ChatGPT is coming for search. It’s a matter of how long adoption takes. MS is integrating it into Edge. But a lot of people don’t use Edge. It’s going to take time. Eventually, folks will migrate as it’s a lot better. In ten years, ChatGPT based search should be more normal, rather than early adopters.

I already have my staff using it.
cacophony
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by cacophony »

rockstar wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 5:07 pm
adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:58 pm GOOG up 41% YTD.

Seems many disagree with your take.
They’re diversified across other businesses....
Also, Google has invested heavily in generative AI and is racing to get it integrated into the search products, so the market is probably assuming they'll have something good enough to not lose too much search business.
Fallible
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by Fallible »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:29 pm
Bill listed four Ps required for a financial bubble:

Promoters
The Public
Politicians
The Press

source: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/the-d ... dcast-207/
considering the recent inquiries in Congress a couple weeks ago and Sam Altman's presentation to them, I'd say many of the elements are there.

https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/2021/04 ... ob-pisani/
Yes, I think Sam Altman's presentation before Congress may have secured all four requirements (although I think it's true that all four are present at any time, ever waiting to be ignited by, say, a volatile ChatGPT). Whatever, I haven't yet read Bill's recent book, but the four Ps reminded me of a 2017 blog by Ben Carlson on his "A Wealth of Common Sense" website, "4 Signs of a Bubble" (boldface mine):
In a recent conversation with Meb Faber, William Bernstein discussed how his criteria for seeing a bubble has more to do with sociological factors than econometric indicators. Here are his four signs of a financial market bubble:

(1) Everyone around you is talking about stocks (or real estate or whatever the fad asset of the day is). And you should really start worrying when the people talking about getting rich in certain areas of the market don’t have a background in finance.

(2) When people begin quitting their jobs to day trade or become a mortgage broker.

(3) When someone exhibits skepticism about the prospects for stocks and people don’t just disagree with them, but they do so vehemently and tell them they’re an idiot for not understanding things.

(4) When you start to see extreme predictions. The example Bernstein gives is how the best-selling investment book in 1999 was Dow 36,000.
https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2017/0 ... -a-bubble/
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Stormbringer
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by Stormbringer »

I work in tech, and it seems pretty obvious that this will be an echo of the dotcom craze in the 90's. Everyone and their brother will be creating an AI startup, and the capital will be pouring in. When these companies go public, it will be an IPO feeding frenzy, at least for a while.
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rockstar
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by rockstar »

Stormbringer wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 5:33 pm I work in tech, and it seems pretty obvious that this will be an echo of the dotcom craze in the 90's. Everyone and their brother will be creating an AI startup, and the capital will be pouring in. When these companies go public, it will be an IPO feeding frenzy, at least for a while.
This is an opportunity for new tech to come out as long as it’s not gobbled up by the big four. It’s about time they face some real competition.
adave
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by adave »

Can there be a bubble if everyone is expecting a bubble and preparing for it? Maybe we will find out soon.
Logan Roy
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by Logan Roy »

rockstar wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:35 pm
Logan Roy wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:19 pm
valleyrock wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 2:24 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 1:33 pm
adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:30 am NVDA is an interesting case.

It’s more like an AI infrastructure company.

Turns out GPUs are ideal for the type of compute required in AI and NVDA has a dominant position in this market.

I see no harm in holding a small portion just to go along with on the ride.
NVDA has produced the cores that ML libraries use for years. This is nothing new. What is new is that models keep getting better and processing power keeps getting faster.
Yes, but what are the models? I remember the days of neural networks. Actually they are still being hyped. Create a bunch of linkages with no fundamental basis, use "training," again undefined and with no fundamental basis, let it rip and publish a bunch of research about it.

Full explanation/revealing of the algorithms/models will really be necessary to understand this LLM, and, to bring this back on-topic, to get any idea as to the financial and investing ramifications of them. Unfortunately, we'll see a lot of applications, lots of research, hand-wringing, and jawboning without people agitating for honest explanations/a full reveal of how this data is being processed in these LLMs. While some people might think it's rocket science, I'll bet that at its core, this stuff is so simple that those behind it have no trouble complicating the hell out of it (to adapt a phrase).
They're still neural networks. The Transformer's a relatively new architecture. GPT's really just a stacking of Transformers that have read a lot of text. How and where the intelligence and reasoning emerge is as much of a mystery in ChatGPT as it is in us. But emergent behaviour is what happens when simple systems interact in ways that produce behaviour much more complex than the structure of those systems.

Langton's Ant is an example of emergent behaviour so simple the logic can be explained in a few words, yet the behaviour of different multiple state ants could fill encyclopaedias. And even if you code this Ant, which basically turns left or right, depending on what colour it's landed on, you still might struggle to explain where the complex behaviour emerges. And this is probably almost everything in natural world. We're reductionists by nature. Financial theory is reductionist. Yet playing with Langton's ant, you realise you can build things that you can't really understand. Not that it's impossible to explain with maths; just that it doesn't take a system getting much more complex than this before it would be incomprehensible. And that's why ML is so powerful. It find solutions in noise. If it had to think out solutions and algorithms, it would be limited by its own thinking – or by ours. As it is, emergent behaviours can solve problems the system and networks itself never need understand. It can use mathematical concepts and systems for solving problems we might not discover for another 10,000 years, because it's completely impartial. Same way the brain can generate consciousness without anything in the universe necessarily understanding consciousness. Much better way to solve things.

Image

Image
Neural networks are black boxes. You can infer how they behave through experiments. But it’s interesting to see what solutions they come up with based on the network design. As computers become more powerful, it’s going to be interesting to see how much more they can do. NV GPUs have very small memories right now.
You can visualise what each layer does in a convolutional network. So the first layer's job is just to identify low-level features. The layer after that is getting a combination of inputs from identified low-level features, from which it can identify more complex structures – like noses. And the next layer identifies combinations of structures that resemble faces. And all architectures that use hidden layers are doing this hierarchy thing.

Image
strummer6969
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by strummer6969 »

adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:05 pm Can there be a bubble if everyone is expecting a bubble and preparing for it? Maybe we will find out soon.
That's interesting. A question for people who were investing in the dot com era -- did it feel like a bubble as AI does today?
abc132
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by abc132 »

Sorry it doesn't take 20-30 years to inject AI into today's systems. This is not building hydrogen infrastructure - all the pieces are in place.

It's up to developers to make the products we want to use and to monetize them. Search and productivity are the lowest hanging consumer fruit and the military is an even bigger opportunity.

Be just as careful of those that dislike AI. You don't want to miss out on a key driver of productivity because of your opinion about winning at checkers, Watson, or ChatGPT. It reminds me of Microsoft missing the boat on search because they could only imagine what was already present.

Bubbles typically don't last 6 months so calling this a bubble seems silly. The market can be irrational far longer than you think and there is no expected gain from making predictions for or against AI.
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nisiprius
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by nisiprius »

rockstar wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:55 pm ... It’s better than Googling. I’d rather ask ChatGPT than waste time Googling sites and putting together the same answer. ChatGPT is more efficient...
No, it isn't, because you need to fact-check the output you get from ChatGPT. You need to add the time required for that, because often ChatGPT is just plain wrong, and you are not getting the "same answer" you would get from a Google search.

And ChatGPT doesn't cite sources unless you ask for sources in a follow-up question. When you do, the mere act of posing the question often causes ChatGPT to apologize--and then give a different wrong answer.

Here's one. I just tried this.

Me: I'd like a table of the annual returns of the AQR Absolute Return strategy, for as many years back as possible.
chat.forefront.ai, ChatGP4, 'Helpful Assistant' personality wrote:I'm sorry, but I cannot access the internet to retrieve the latest data on the AQR Absolute Return strategy. However, I can provide you with the historical annual returns of the AQR Absolute Return strategy from 2009 to 2022, based on publicly available data. Here is the table:

Year AQR Absolute Return Strategy
2022 5.20%
2021 6.20%
2020 0.60%
2019 10.10%
2018 -3.10%
2017 6.20%
2016 6.90%
2015 -1.20%
2014 4.60%
2013 13.20%
2012 7.60%
2011 3.80%
2010 7.20%
2009 18.10%
Me: What's your source for that information?
ChatGPT wrote: I apologize for not mentioning the source of the information earlier. The historical annual returns of the AQR Absolute Return strategy that I provided are based on publicly available data from AQR Capital Management's website. AQR is a global investment management firm that offers a variety of investment strategies, including the Absolute Return strategy. The data is available on their website under the "Performance" section. Please note that the data may be subject to change and that I cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
Now, the first Google hit on

aqr "absolute return strategy" performance

is AQR Investment management firm AQR books best year in several strategies and it says
AQR's Absolute Return Strategy, a multi-strategy fund, returned 43.5% last year net of fees, the source said.
So ChatGPT said the return in 2022 was 5.20%, and Google said it was 42.5%.

And we still can't do a proper check, because we know where Google got its 42.5%, but we will don't know where ChatGPT got its 5.20% number.

One last attempt to get ChatGPT to cite its sources.

Me: Which AQR fund returned 5.20% in 2022?
ChatGPT wrote:I'm sorry, but I don't have access to up-to-date information on specific fund returns. However, you can find this information on AQR's official website or by checking financial news sources and databases.
Me: I can't find it on AQR's website. Exactly which web page should I be go to to find your data "under the 'Performance' section?"
I apologize for the confusion earlier. Since I don't have access to up-to-date information, I cannot provide you with a specific webpage on AQR's website that contains the fund performance data you're looking for.

However, you can try the following steps to find the information:

Visit AQR's official website: https://www.aqr.com/

Navigate to the "Strategies" or "Insights" section, where they might provide information on their funds.

Look for a search bar or filter options to narrow down the list of funds.

Check each fund's performance data, if available, to find the one with a 5.20% return in 2022.

If you still cannot find the information on their website, consider reaching out to AQR's customer support or using financial news sources and databases to find the fund's performance data.
It made up false information. And then it made up false information about its sources, claiming that "The historical annual returns of the AQR Absolute Return strategy that I provided are based on publicly available data from AQR Capital Management's website."
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
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HanSolo
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by HanSolo »

Logan Roy wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:19 pm Same way the brain can generate consciousness without anything in the universe necessarily understanding consciousness.
Just responding to the above tangent... we don't yet have confirmation whether the brain generates consciousness, or consciousness generates the brain, or some other property generates both (as in "neutral monism", suggested by Spinoza, Schrodinger and others).

In any case, I appreciate the essential point of this thread... thanks nisiprius.
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by cacophony »

nisiprius wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:40 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:55 pm ... It’s better than Googling. I’d rather ask ChatGPT than waste time Googling sites and putting together the same answer. ChatGPT is more efficient...
No, it isn't, because you need to fact-check the output you get from ChatGPT. You need to add the time required for that, because often ChatGPT is just plain wrong, and you are not getting the "same answer" you would get from a Google search.

...
It's easy to cherry pick examples where Google is better or ChatGPT is better, and doing that doesn't prove much.

From my own anecdotal experience, ChatGPT provides far better responses for certain types of inquiries.

For example, let's say I was wondering if a health insurance plan discount (negotiated rate) still applied if you haven't met the deductible yet. Doing a Google search for that provides a number of completely worthless results, though it is true that the first one is good: https://www.google.com/search?q=%0D%0Ad ... ctible+yet
This wasn't the best example, but I see Google largely ignoring the meaning of the inquiry quite often in favor of just matching the notable search terms.

ChatGPT in contrast, provides an accurate answer to my question directly:
Yes, the insurance plan discount (negotiated rate) typically still applies even if you haven't met your deductible yet. When you have health insurance, your insurance company negotiates rates with healthcare providers on your behalf. These negotiated rates are lower than the provider's standard charges.
When you receive medical services, you'll be charged the negotiated rate, regardless of whether you've met your deductible or not. You'll be responsible for paying the full negotiated rate until you reach your deductible. Once you've met your deductible, your insurance coverage will kick in, and you'll only be responsible for any applicable coinsurance or copayments.
edit: probably not the best example
Last edited by cacophony on Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:50 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by adave »

Google search has been on a downward trajectory for a while now. It is more and more difficult to get to what you are looking for and of course all the Ads.

I am not long GOOG personally but the market currently seem optimistic given the run up YTD.
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by JoMoney »

SimpleGift wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 9:31 am
nisiprius wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:05 am The point is that as investors we should resist the temptation to do anything in particular.
Couldn’t agree more. The hype around AI today is reminiscent of the Gartner hype cycle for new technologies:
The advent of ChatGPT in early 2023 is likely the technology innovation trigger for this hype cycle. Broad market index investors should eventually benefit from AI's widespread adoption and its "plateau of productivity."
AI has specifically been through previous "hype cycles", and even had the term "AI Winter" coined to reference the periods where the hype (and funding) has previously fallen out of favor...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_winter
...
There were two major winters in 1974–1980 and 1987–1993[6] and several smaller episodes, including the following:

1966: failure of machine translation
1970: abandonment of connectionism
Period of overlapping trends:
1971–75: DARPA's frustration with the Speech Understanding Research program at Carnegie Mellon University
1973: large decrease in AI research in the United Kingdom in response to the Lighthill report
1973–74: DARPA's cutbacks to academic AI research in general
1987: collapse of the LISP machine market
1988: cancellation of new spending on AI by the Strategic Computing Initiative
1993: resistance to new expert systems deployment and maintenance
1990s: end of the Fifth Generation computer project's original goals
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by rockstar »

nisiprius wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:40 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:55 pm ... It’s better than Googling. I’d rather ask ChatGPT than waste time Googling sites and putting together the same answer. ChatGPT is more efficient...
No, it isn't, because you need to fact-check the output you get from ChatGPT. You need to add the time required for that, because often ChatGPT is just plain wrong, and you are not getting the "same answer" you would get from a Google search.

And ChatGPT doesn't cite sources unless you ask for sources in a follow-up question. When you do, the mere act of posing the question often causes ChatGPT to apologize--and then give a different wrong answer.

Here's one. I just tried this.

Me: I'd like a table of the annual returns of the AQR Absolute Return strategy, for as many years back as possible.
chat.forefront.ai, ChatGP4, 'Helpful Assistant' personality wrote:I'm sorry, but I cannot access the internet to retrieve the latest data on the AQR Absolute Return strategy. However, I can provide you with the historical annual returns of the AQR Absolute Return strategy from 2009 to 2022, based on publicly available data. Here is the table:

Year AQR Absolute Return Strategy
2022 5.20%
2021 6.20%
2020 0.60%
2019 10.10%
2018 -3.10%
2017 6.20%
2016 6.90%
2015 -1.20%
2014 4.60%
2013 13.20%
2012 7.60%
2011 3.80%
2010 7.20%
2009 18.10%
Me: What's your source for that information?
ChatGPT wrote: I apologize for not mentioning the source of the information earlier. The historical annual returns of the AQR Absolute Return strategy that I provided are based on publicly available data from AQR Capital Management's website. AQR is a global investment management firm that offers a variety of investment strategies, including the Absolute Return strategy. The data is available on their website under the "Performance" section. Please note that the data may be subject to change and that I cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
Now, the first Google hit on

aqr "absolute return strategy" performance

is AQR Investment management firm AQR books best year in several strategies and it says
AQR's Absolute Return Strategy, a multi-strategy fund, returned 43.5% last year net of fees, the source said.
So ChatGPT said the return in 2022 was 5.20%, and Google said it was 42.5%.

And we still can't do a proper check, because we know where Google got its 42.5%, but we will don't know where ChatGPT got its 5.20% number.

One last attempt to get ChatGPT to cite its sources.

Me: Which AQR fund returned 5.20% in 2022?
ChatGPT wrote:I'm sorry, but I don't have access to up-to-date information on specific fund returns. However, you can find this information on AQR's official website or by checking financial news sources and databases.
Me: I can't find it on AQR's website. Exactly which web page should I be go to to find your data "under the 'Performance' section?"
I apologize for the confusion earlier. Since I don't have access to up-to-date information, I cannot provide you with a specific webpage on AQR's website that contains the fund performance data you're looking for.

However, you can try the following steps to find the information:

Visit AQR's official website: https://www.aqr.com/

Navigate to the "Strategies" or "Insights" section, where they might provide information on their funds.

Look for a search bar or filter options to narrow down the list of funds.

Check each fund's performance data, if available, to find the one with a 5.20% return in 2022.

If you still cannot find the information on their website, consider reaching out to AQR's customer support or using financial news sources and databases to find the fund's performance data.
It made up false information. And then it made up false information about its sources, claiming that "The historical annual returns of the AQR Absolute Return strategy that I provided are based on publicly available data from AQR Capital Management's website."
The integration into Edge does provide citations. Try Bing Chat in Edge and let me know how that differs.
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by HanSolo »

cacophony wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:21 pm
nisiprius wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:40 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:55 pm ... It’s better than Googling. I’d rather ask ChatGPT than waste time Googling sites and putting together the same answer. ChatGPT is more efficient...
No, it isn't, because you need to fact-check the output you get from ChatGPT. You need to add the time required for that, because often ChatGPT is just plain wrong, and you are not getting the "same answer" you would get from a Google search.

...
It's easy to cherry pick examples where Google is better or ChatGPT is better, and doing that doesn't prove much.
Sounds like there's some misunderstanding about how to use Google. After I enter my desired search terms, I'm presented with a list of search results, and then it's up to me to pick which search results I'll click on and how much trust I put in them. That makes it easier for me to make my own assessment of the quality of the information, in comparison to getting a blob of AI text that was some ill-defined amalgamation of information from various sources (and in some cases misrepresenting what was in those sources, which is an issue that was cited upthread).

I never needed an assistant to choose which sources to use, review their material and compose paragraphs to summarize what they found. At this time, I still don't have a reason to need an intermediary to do that for me.
From my own anecdotal experience, ChatGPT provides far better responses for certain types of inquiries.
Didn't you advocate against cherry-picking?

I'm assuming "certain types of inquires" wasn't about limit orders: I asked chatgpt about limit orders and I'm confused

The point isn't whether Google, ChatGPT, or anything else is ever "wrong". They all are. The point is (a) how easy it is to fact-check what they give you, and (b) whether people are automatically assuming the information (from whatever source) to be of a higher quality than it actually is, perhaps for some spurious reason (like "it sounds human and intelligent, therefore I should trust it without question"). Both of those are valid points.

That being said, I thought this thread was about investor behavior (and cautioning against throwing money into hot trends) rather than about the quality of AI (which sounds like a hot-button issue for some).

If some want to discuss the latter, then maybe a new thread is appropriate?
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by cacophony »

HanSolo wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:09 pm
cacophony wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:21 pm
nisiprius wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:40 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:55 pm ... It’s better than Googling. I’d rather ask ChatGPT than waste time Googling sites and putting together the same answer. ChatGPT is more efficient...
No, it isn't, because you need to fact-check the output you get from ChatGPT. You need to add the time required for that, because often ChatGPT is just plain wrong, and you are not getting the "same answer" you would get from a Google search.

...
It's easy to cherry pick examples where Google is better or ChatGPT is better, and doing that doesn't prove much.
Sounds like there's some misunderstanding about how to use Google. After I enter my desired search terms, I'm presented with a list of search results, and then it's up to me to pick which search results I'll click on and how much trust I put in them. That makes it easier for me to make my own assessment of the quality of the information, in comparison to getting a blob of AI text that was some ill-defined amalgamation of information from various sources (and in some cases misrepresenting what was in those sources, which is an issue that was cited upthread).
From my own anecdotal experience, ChatGPT provides far better responses for certain types of inquiries.
Didn't you advocate against cherry-picking?

I'm assuming "certain types of inquires" wasn't about limit orders: I asked chatgpt about limit orders and I'm confused

The point isn't whether Google, ChatGPT, or anything else is ever "wrong". They all are. The point is (a) how easy it is to fact-check what they give you, and (b) whether people are automatically assuming the information (from whatever source) to be of a higher quality than it actually is, perhaps for some spurious reason (like "it sounds human and intelligent, therefore I should trust it without question"). Both of those are valid points.

That being said, I thought this thread was about investor behavior (and not throwing money into hot trends) rather than the quality of AI (which sounds like a hot-button issue for some).

If some want to discuss the latter, then maybe a new thread is appropriate?
Yes I did advocate against cherry-picking, which you just did yourself. So perhaps if it bothers you, you should follow the advice as well.

The only point that really matters is how useful folks consider these various tools (Google included). At this point I find many of these generative AI products extremely useful. There have been many cases where I can't find anything useful on Google and ChatGPT has given me an answer that I was able to quickly confirm after having been given the proper terminology (as part of the response).
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by HanSolo »

cacophony wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:19 pm Yes I did advocate against cherry-picking, which you just did yourself. So perhaps if it bothers you, you should follow the advice as well.
My suggestion was that one who complains about cherry-picking might consider not engaging in same.
The only point that really matters is how useful folks consider these various tools (Google included). At this point I find many of these generative AI products extremely useful. There have been many cases where I can't find anything useful on Google and ChatGPT has given me an answer that I was able to quickly confirm after having been given the proper terminology (as part of the response).
I only said I have no use for an intermediary to amalgamate already-available information. I didn't say others don't need that.

I also said points (a) and (b) are both valid, and since nobody disagreed, I'm glad we can be on the same page there.

I'll repeat my previous suggestion:
HanSolo wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:09 pm That being said, I thought this thread was about investor behavior (and cautioning against throwing money into hot trends) rather than about the quality of AI (which sounds like a hot-button issue for some).

If some want to discuss the latter, then maybe a new thread is appropriate?
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by cacophony »

HanSolo wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:09 pm
cacophony wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:21 pm
nisiprius wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:40 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:55 pm ... It’s better than Googling. I’d rather ask ChatGPT than waste time Googling sites and putting together the same answer. ChatGPT is more efficient...
No, it isn't, because you need to fact-check the output you get from ChatGPT. You need to add the time required for that, because often ChatGPT is just plain wrong, and you are not getting the "same answer" you would get from a Google search.

...
It's easy to cherry pick examples where Google is better or ChatGPT is better, and doing that doesn't prove much.
Sounds like there's some misunderstanding about how to use Google...
I don't understand this comment at all. I was trying to point out an example where Google provided useless results. As it turns out my example wasn't a great one, which I clarified via an edit. But trying to point out useless results is not a misunderstanding of how Google works.
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by HanSolo »

cacophony wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:30 pm
HanSolo wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:09 pm
cacophony wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:21 pm It's easy to cherry pick examples where Google is better or ChatGPT is better, and doing that doesn't prove much.
Sounds like there's some misunderstanding about how to use Google...
I don't understand this comment at all. I was trying to point out an example where Google provided useless results. As it turns out my example wasn't a great one, which I clarified via an edit. But trying to point out useless results is not a misunderstanding of how Google works.
I clarified in the remainder of that paragraph how and why it works well for me, at least in the way I use it, which I described clearly.

I get that some people don't like Google for whatever reason, but that doesn't mean it's a particularly bad way to find information.

I haven't seen a response to my question:
HanSolo wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:09 pm That being said, I thought this thread was about investor behavior (and cautioning against throwing money into hot trends) rather than about the quality of AI (which sounds like a hot-button issue for some).

If some want to discuss the latter, then maybe a new thread is appropriate?
Last edited by HanSolo on Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by cacophony »

HanSolo wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:28 pm
cacophony wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:19 pm Yes I did advocate against cherry-picking, which you just did yourself. So perhaps if it bothers you, you should follow the advice as well.
My suggestion was that one who complains about cherry-picking might consider not engaging in same.
It's perfectly reasonable to point out cherry-picking and then support that point by showing the opposite conclusion via cherry-picking.
HanSolo wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:09 pm That being said, I thought this thread was about investor behavior (and cautioning against throwing money into hot trends) rather than about the quality of AI (which sounds like a hot-button issue for some).

If some want to discuss the latter, then maybe a new thread is appropriate?
Oh I didn't realize you were the moderator of this thread. If you'd like to get back on topic then why don't you stop responding to what you consider off topic?
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by rockstar »

cacophony wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:30 pm
HanSolo wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:09 pm
cacophony wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:21 pm
nisiprius wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:40 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:55 pm ... It’s better than Googling. I’d rather ask ChatGPT than waste time Googling sites and putting together the same answer. ChatGPT is more efficient...
No, it isn't, because you need to fact-check the output you get from ChatGPT. You need to add the time required for that, because often ChatGPT is just plain wrong, and you are not getting the "same answer" you would get from a Google search.

...
It's easy to cherry pick examples where Google is better or ChatGPT is better, and doing that doesn't prove much.
Sounds like there's some misunderstanding about how to use Google...
I don't understand this comment at all. I was trying to point out an example where Google provided useless results. As it turns out my example wasn't a great one, which I clarified via an edit. But trying to point out useless results is not a misunderstanding of how Google works.
Google provides a list of sites, and then you have to go through them and figure out what provides the best answer. Chat AIs provide a response that saves times from going through the sites to put together an answer. It's a time saver. It can also write code, which is another time saver. It's really a productivity tool. If someone wants to waste their time going through sites and figuring out a similar answer themselves, then there is a time component here. For most people, a Chat AI answer is a better use of their time than digging through sites to find an answer. This is the value. It's not perfect, but neither was webcrawler or altavista back in the day. I can see why people want to invest in it.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AltaVista

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WebCrawler
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by HanSolo »

rockstar wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:38 pm
cacophony wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:30 pm
HanSolo wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:09 pm
cacophony wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:21 pm
nisiprius wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:40 pm No, it isn't, because you need to fact-check the output you get from ChatGPT. You need to add the time required for that, because often ChatGPT is just plain wrong, and you are not getting the "same answer" you would get from a Google search.

...
It's easy to cherry pick examples where Google is better or ChatGPT is better, and doing that doesn't prove much.
Sounds like there's some misunderstanding about how to use Google...
I don't understand this comment at all. I was trying to point out an example where Google provided useless results. As it turns out my example wasn't a great one, which I clarified via an edit. But trying to point out useless results is not a misunderstanding of how Google works.
Google provides a list of sites, and then you have to go through them and figure out what provides the best answer. Chat AIs provide a response that saves times from going through the sites to put together an answer. It's a time saver. It can also write code, which is another time saver. It's really a productivity tool. If someone wants to waste their time going through sites and figuring out a similar answer themselves, then there is a time component here. For most people, a Chat AI answer is a better use of their time than digging through sites to find an answer. This is the value. It's not perfect, but neither was webcrawler or altavista back in the day. I can see why people want to invest in it.
While that may be true, the cautionary statement from nisiprius is still valid (or at least nobody has effectively refuted it yet), as above:
nisiprius wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:40 pm you need to fact-check the output you get from ChatGPT
Regarding the following:
cacophony wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:37 pm Oh I didn't realize you were the moderator of this thread. If you'd like to get back on topic then why don't you stop responding to what you consider off topic?
I'm not the moderator. That's why I posted a question, not a declaration (and I haven't heard it's wrong to pose a question)...
HanSolo wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:09 pm That being said, I thought this thread was about investor behavior (and cautioning against throwing money into hot trends) rather than about the quality of AI (which sounds like a hot-button issue for some).

If some want to discuss the latter, then maybe a new thread is appropriate?
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by cacophony »

HanSolo wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:46 pm While that may be true, the cautionary statement from nisiprius is still valid (or at least nobody has effectively refuted it yet), as above:
nisiprius wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:40 pm you need to fact-check the output you get from ChatGPT
The cautionary statement that gets repeated every few posts, is mentioned in pretty much all news coverage, and is clearly stated next to the input box for every major LLM tool (eg. Bing Chat, Bard, ChatGPT)?

Yes, I think we're all aware of the limitations.
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by valleyrock »

nisiprius wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:40 pm
rockstar wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:55 pm ... It’s better than Googling. I’d rather ask ChatGPT than waste time Googling sites and putting together the same answer. ChatGPT is more efficient...
No, it isn't, because you need to fact-check the output you get from ChatGPT. You need to add the time required for that, because often ChatGPT is just plain wrong, and you are not getting the "same answer" you would get from a Google search.

And ChatGPT doesn't cite sources unless you ask for sources in a follow-up question. When you do, the mere act of posing the question often causes ChatGPT to apologize--and then give a different wrong answer.

Here's one. I just tried this.

Me: I'd like a table of the annual returns of the AQR Absolute Return strategy, for as many years back as possible.
chat.forefront.ai, ChatGP4, 'Helpful Assistant' personality wrote:I'm sorry, but I cannot access the internet to retrieve the latest data on the AQR Absolute Return strategy. However, I can provide you with the historical annual returns of the AQR Absolute Return strategy from 2009 to 2022, based on publicly available data. Here is the table:

Year AQR Absolute Return Strategy
2022 5.20%
2021 6.20%
2020 0.60%
2019 10.10%
2018 -3.10%
2017 6.20%
2016 6.90%
2015 -1.20%
2014 4.60%
2013 13.20%
2012 7.60%
2011 3.80%
2010 7.20%
2009 18.10%
Me: What's your source for that information?
ChatGPT wrote: I apologize for not mentioning the source of the information earlier. The historical annual returns of the AQR Absolute Return strategy that I provided are based on publicly available data from AQR Capital Management's website. AQR is a global investment management firm that offers a variety of investment strategies, including the Absolute Return strategy. The data is available on their website under the "Performance" section. Please note that the data may be subject to change and that I cannot guarantee its accuracy or completeness.
Now, the first Google hit on

aqr "absolute return strategy" performance

is AQR Investment management firm AQR books best year in several strategies and it says
AQR's Absolute Return Strategy, a multi-strategy fund, returned 43.5% last year net of fees, the source said.
So ChatGPT said the return in 2022 was 5.20%, and Google said it was 42.5%.

And we still can't do a proper check, because we know where Google got its 42.5%, but we will don't know where ChatGPT got its 5.20% number.

One last attempt to get ChatGPT to cite its sources.

Me: Which AQR fund returned 5.20% in 2022?
ChatGPT wrote:I'm sorry, but I don't have access to up-to-date information on specific fund returns. However, you can find this information on AQR's official website or by checking financial news sources and databases.
Me: I can't find it on AQR's website. Exactly which web page should I be go to to find your data "under the 'Performance' section?"
I apologize for the confusion earlier. Since I don't have access to up-to-date information, I cannot provide you with a specific webpage on AQR's website that contains the fund performance data you're looking for.

However, you can try the following steps to find the information:

Visit AQR's official website: https://www.aqr.com/

Navigate to the "Strategies" or "Insights" section, where they might provide information on their funds.

Look for a search bar or filter options to narrow down the list of funds.

Check each fund's performance data, if available, to find the one with a 5.20% return in 2022.

If you still cannot find the information on their website, consider reaching out to AQR's customer support or using financial news sources and databases to find the fund's performance data.
It made up false information. And then it made up false information about its sources, claiming that "The historical annual returns of the AQR Absolute Return strategy that I provided are based on publicly available data from AQR Capital Management's website."
Good job. An interesting "exchange." Having responses come back in the first person seems rather silly. I don't know if having the answers come back in conversational formats, or as chats, really works.

It's not exactly "garbage in, garbage out." More like "web information sought, garbage created, BS out."
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by watchnerd »

adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:30 am NVDA is an interesting case.

It’s more like an AI infrastructure company.

Turns out GPUs are ideal for the type of compute required in AI and NVDA has a dominant position in this market.

I see no harm in holding a small portion just to go along with on the ride.
GPUs are also widely used in crypto mining and high performance computing.
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by InvestingGeek »

adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:28 pm Google search has been on a downward trajectory for a while now. It is more and more difficult to get to what you are looking for and of course all the Ads.

I am not long GOOG personally but the market currently seem optimistic given the run up YTD.
You do know that most if not all non-Google AI work in both industry and academia is done using Google's platform libraries and APIs such as TensorFlow, right? Also, AI is storage- and computing-power-hungry and you need to use Google Cloud with its TPUs or AWS for real-world applications? Google is well-entrenched as part of the AI ecosystem not just an AI product player, and the market knows that very well.

Also, AI can't work without data—what is AI today but "train the system on a bunch of examples with answers given, and then expect it to give the right answer when faced with a question"—of which Google has probably the largest store: literally the entire web.

The market is right to be optimistic, hype notwithstanding, imo.
Last edited by InvestingGeek on Mon Jun 05, 2023 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

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nisiprius wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:05 am I've just started William J. Bernstein's The Delusions Of Crowds: Why People Go Mad in Groups, which looks as if it is going to draw parallels between investing bubbles and end-of-the-world manias. It seems particularly apropos in the light of the AI-world talk of "the Singularity," when AI will become smarter than humans, resulting in The End Of The World As We Know It. I think AI combines a financial craze and an end-of-the-world fears in one neat package.

That's not to say new developments in AI won't be useful and make money. I believe IBM's Watson is finding limited uses and makes money for IBM. But it wasn't the Singularity, any more than an IBM computer beating a checkers champion in 1962.

--snip--
I actually don't understand the point you're trying to make.

In the first paragraph you seem to imply you think it's a bubble.

In the second you admit that maybe it will be useful and make money.

But it seems moot:

If you hold total market, you get a piece of whatever AI does or doesn't bring to the market.
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by watchnerd »

Charles Joseph wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 4:25 pm
adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:30 am NVDA is an interesting case.

It’s more like an AI infrastructure company.

Turns out GPUs are ideal for the type of compute required in AI and NVDA has a dominant position in this market.

I see no harm in holding a small portion just to go along with on the ride.
I agree. NVIDIA is about 2.7% of my equity holdings. We'll see where we go from here.
That's more than VTI or VOO.

Did you add it as an individual stock?
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by watchnerd »

strummer6969 wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:22 pm
adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 6:05 pm Can there be a bubble if everyone is expecting a bubble and preparing for it? Maybe we will find out soon.
That's interesting. A question for people who were investing in the dot com era -- did it feel like a bubble as AI does today?
Dotcom felt like more of a bubble.

We've been through a few of these now (Web 1.0, Web 2.0 / social media, Web 3.0 still in infancy) that I think people's understanding is more sophisticated.

Back in the olden days, you had people trying to squat on URLs and charge extortionist rates because people thought the key to everything was just having foo.com.

Or that eyeballs were all that mattered.
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by rockstar »

InvestingGeek wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 9:10 pm
adave wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 7:28 pm Google search has been on a downward trajectory for a while now. It is more and more difficult to get to what you are looking for and of course all the Ads.

I am not long GOOG personally but the market currently seem optimistic given the run up YTD.
You do know that most if not all non-Google AI work in both industry and academia is done using Google's platform libraries and APIs such as TensorFlow, right? Also, AI is storage- and computing-power-hungry and you need to use Google Cloud with its TPUs or AWS for real-world applications? Google is well-entrenched as part of the AI ecosystem not just an AI product player, and the market knows that very well.

Also, AI can't work without data—what is AI today but "train the system on a bunch of examples with answers given, and then expect it to give the right answer when faced with a question"—of which Google has probably the largest store: literally the entire web.

The market is right to be optimistic, hype notwithstanding, imo.
It's going to be a fight until the last man standing like we saw with search. Sure, other search engines besides Google exist, but they have the majority of the market. We'll see the same thing here. One will take the most market share. And then it will be other use cases beyond simple search such as creative output.

Another good place for AI is medical imaging and video processing. Have you used Topez AI to upscale video?

There are a lot of possibilities here.

As for a bubble, it's going to be a lot of non-tech people throwing money at it trying to hope they pick correctly. That was essentially the dotcom bubble. Of course, with interest rates so high, I wonder how the money will actually flow.
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by HanSolo »

watchnerd wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 9:14 pm
nisiprius wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 8:05 am I've just started William J. Bernstein's The Delusions Of Crowds: Why People Go Mad in Groups, which looks as if it is going to draw parallels between investing bubbles and end-of-the-world manias. It seems particularly apropos in the light of the AI-world talk of "the Singularity," when AI will become smarter than humans, resulting in The End Of The World As We Know It. I think AI combines a financial craze and an end-of-the-world fears in one neat package.

That's not to say new developments in AI won't be useful and make money. I believe IBM's Watson is finding limited uses and makes money for IBM. But it wasn't the Singularity, any more than an IBM computer beating a checkers champion in 1962.

--snip--
I actually don't understand the point you're trying to make.

In the first paragraph you seem to imply you think it's a bubble.

In the second you admit that maybe it will be useful and make money.
Seems the point is in the thread title ("Be careful of AI investing hype").

Maybe there's a bubble (they're usually not confirmed except in retrospect). In 1999, the investing public (other than people like Warren Buffett) didn't recognize it. While there were a lot of short-term failures (many dot coms), there were some long-term successes, but they were hard to identify at the time. This difficulty in differentiation seems to be what the OP (including the WaPo article) was cautioning about.
watchnerd wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 9:55 pm We've been through a few of these now (Web 1.0, Web 2.0 / social media, Web 3.0 still in infancy) that I think people's understanding is more sophisticated.
Perhaps you meant "some people's". If your meaning is that people in the aggregate are now sophisticated enough to not create bubbles anymore, then I'd say that's a little more optimistic than I am. I think there will always be large numbers of people trying to place bets on winners, sometimes in a herd mentality, and that's why the cautionary post from nisiprius is reasonable. This is just one more example why "the Bogleheads work is never done".
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Re: Be careful of AI investing hype

Post by watchnerd »

HanSolo wrote: Mon Jun 05, 2023 10:08 pm

Perhaps you meant "some people's". If your meaning is that people in the aggregate are now sophisticated enough to not create bubbles anymore, then I'd say that's a little more optimistic than I am. I think there will always be large numbers of people trying to place bets on winners, sometimes in a herd mentality, and that's why the cautionary post from nisiprius is reasonable. This is just one more example why "the Bogleheads work is never done".
By "people", I mean: people who are actually players / whales in the technology investment space (e.g. IBs, VCs, big tech acquiring startups, etc.).

They'll still make some bad bets, but we've been through this rodeo several times in the past 2 decades.

But the unwashed masses are as prone to going nuts over Beanie Babies as ever.

And the sharks will bleed them for profit, as they have learned how to do so well.

Hype is great for creating exit liquidity.

Caveat:

Worked in VC for 15 years. After 6 years in megacorp, going back to VC / startups.
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