Same! Honored to be able to do this interview.
submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
Considering the market portfolio can't consider any individual investor's situation (except as part of the aggregate), can there be cases where holding the market portfolio is riskier for some investors? If so, would some modest alteration (like tilting) be preferable? How should investors approach this?
"Anyone who claims to understand quantum theory is either lying or crazy" -- Richard Feynman
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
Fantastic!Charles Joseph wrote: ↑Sat Mar 25, 2023 10:41 am
2. I guess what I was getting is that a high Sharpe Ratio may be meaningless if returns are too low for an investor to meet their goals. Would it be better for the overwhelming majority of investors to simply focus on risk tolerance (using, for example, Rick Ferri's “asset allocation stress test”, or any other useful risk tolerance tool) and then build a simple two- or three-fund portfolio that meets a person's risk tolerance, while ignoring Sharpe Ratio all together?
Thank you.
When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one. ~Jack Bogle
Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
Here goes...Jon Luskin wrote: ↑Sat Mar 25, 2023 6:36 pmTell me more about this question.djm2001 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 11:25 am How does Professor Sharpe think of the World Bond/Stock portfolio in relation to average consumption? Does the payout stream (dividends and buybacks) from this portfolio fund the average consumption stream? What withdrawal strategy does he believe works best with the World Bond/Stock portfolio (fixed percentage vs. 1/N vs. live off the dividends (and buybacks) etc.) for the average investor?
Professor Sharpe is known for taking a "macro" perspective on asset allocation. He often draws useful conclusions about asset allocation from macro-level properties and equations. For example,
- In The Arithmetic of Active Management, he uses a simple identity (total market = active portion + passive portion) to prove that the return on each passively managed dollar is greater than the return on the average actively managed dollar after costs.
- In his seminal 1964 paper, Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk, he showed that every investor must hold the market portfolio at equilibrium (under certain assumptions, e.g., ability to borrow at the risk-free rate).
- In Adaptive Asset Allocation Policies, he identifies a class of dynamically adjusting allocation strategies tailored to an invsetor's risk preferences that are macro-consistent, i.e., all investors can follow these strategies and the market will still clear.
Given that Professor Sharpe has focused a lot on applying a macro approach to the "stocks" (i.e., asset allocation) side of things, I was wondering if he has any thoughts on applying a similar approach to the "flows" side of things, and in particular to consumption/withdrawal flows. For example, are there useful conclusions that can be drawn about the individual investor's (or even the average investor's) withdrawal strategy based on macroeconomic equations such as:
Code: Select all
Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports = Wages + Profit + Taxes
My interpretation is that Cochrane is suggesting that every investor's consumption stream could be funded by a combination of an indexed perpetuity (think Social Security) payout stream and the market dividend stream (i.e., dividend payouts of the cap-weighted market portfolio). And netting everything out, the average consumption stream could be funded by just the market dividend stream. I was wondering if Professor Sharpe agrees with that, and whether he would be willing to elaborate his views on the topic of withdrawal strategies in general.If the indexed perpetuity is the riskless asset, then the consumption claim, that pays one unit of aggregate consumption, must be the risky claim and held by the average investor. People must mix their portfolios between these two claims, with more risk averse people taking more of the indexed perpetuity, and vice versa. And all of this holds with an arbitrarily dynamic and multifactor view of the world.
AA = global stocks & bonds @ market weight (~60/40); EF = i-bonds; WR = -PMT(1%, 100-age, 1, 0, 1)
Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
Great post, regardless of whether Jon is able to ask the question or Professor Sharpe answers. I learned from it.djm2001 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 4:48 pm ...
Here goes...
Professor Sharpe is known for taking a "macro" perspective on asset allocation. He often draws useful conclusions about asset allocation from macro-level properties and equations. For example,However, deciding asset allocation is only half of the problem of investing. The other half is deciding portfolio inflow (i.e., when and how much to invest) and outflow (i.e., consumption/withdrawal). For example, Robert Merton solves asset allocation and consumption/withdrawal as a joint problem (see Merton's portfolio problem). In essence, the investor is dealing with a stock and flow system, and so must reason about both "stocks" (e.g., asset allocation) and "flows" (e.g., consumption/withdrawal). (The linked Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomics article has a great quote from Michal Kalecki: "I have found out what economics is; it is the science of confusing stocks with flows".)
- In The Arithmetic of Active Management, he uses a simple identity (total market = active portion + passive portion) to prove that the return on each passively managed dollar is greater than the return on the average actively managed dollar after costs.
- In his seminal 1964 paper, Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk, he showed that every investor must hold the market portfolio at equilibrium (under certain assumptions, e.g., ability to borrow at the risk-free rate).
- In Adaptive Asset Allocation Policies, he identifies a class of dynamically adjusting allocation strategies tailored to an invsetor's risk preferences that are macro-consistent, i.e., all investors can follow these strategies and the market will still clear.
Given that Professor Sharpe has focused a lot on applying a macro approach to the "stocks" (i.e., asset allocation) side of things, I was wondering if he has any thoughts on applying a similar approach to the "flows" side of things, and in particular to consumption/withdrawal flows. For example, are there useful conclusions that can be drawn about the individual investor's (or even the average investor's) withdrawal strategy based on macroeconomic equations such as:John Cochrane's Portfolios for Long-Term Investors suggests something along these lines with the following rather cryptic quote:Code: Select all
Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports = Wages + Profit + Taxes
My interpretation is that Cochrane is suggesting that every investor's consumption stream could be funded by a combination of an indexed perpetuity (think Social Security) payout stream and the market dividend stream (i.e., dividend payouts of the cap-weighted market portfolio). And netting everything out, the average consumption stream could be funded by just the market dividend stream. I was wondering if Professor Sharpe agrees with that, and whether he would be willing to elaborate his views on the topic of withdrawal strategies in general.If the indexed perpetuity is the riskless asset, then the consumption claim, that pays one unit of aggregate consumption, must be the risky claim and held by the average investor. People must mix their portfolios between these two claims, with more risk averse people taking more of the indexed perpetuity, and vice versa. And all of this holds with an arbitrarily dynamic and multifactor view of the world.
Thanks!
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
That's a pretty neat question. It's going on the list!tomsense76 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 12:02 am Considering the market portfolio can't consider any individual investor's situation (except as part of the aggregate), can there be cases where holding the market portfolio is riskier for some investors? If so, would some modest alteration (like tilting) be preferable? How should investors approach this?
Best,
Jon
When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one. ~Jack Bogle
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
Fascinating, thank you. I'll have to think about how to boil this down to a sound byte for the interview.djm2001 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 4:48 pmHere goes...Jon Luskin wrote: ↑Sat Mar 25, 2023 6:36 pmTell me more about this question.djm2001 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 11:25 am How does Professor Sharpe think of the World Bond/Stock portfolio in relation to average consumption? Does the payout stream (dividends and buybacks) from this portfolio fund the average consumption stream? What withdrawal strategy does he believe works best with the World Bond/Stock portfolio (fixed percentage vs. 1/N vs. live off the dividends (and buybacks) etc.) for the average investor?
Professor Sharpe is known for taking a "macro" perspective on asset allocation. He often draws useful conclusions about asset allocation from macro-level properties and equations. For example,However, deciding asset allocation is only half of the problem of investing. The other half is deciding portfolio inflow (i.e., when and how much to invest) and outflow (i.e., consumption/withdrawal). For example, Robert Merton solves asset allocation and consumption/withdrawal as a joint problem (see Merton's portfolio problem). In essence, the investor is dealing with a stock and flow system, and so must reason about both "stocks" (e.g., asset allocation) and "flows" (e.g., consumption/withdrawal). (The linked Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomics article has a great quote from Michal Kalecki: "I have found out what economics is; it is the science of confusing stocks with flows".)
- In The Arithmetic of Active Management, he uses a simple identity (total market = active portion + passive portion) to prove that the return on each passively managed dollar is greater than the return on the average actively managed dollar after costs.
- In his seminal 1964 paper, Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk, he showed that every investor must hold the market portfolio at equilibrium (under certain assumptions, e.g., ability to borrow at the risk-free rate).
- In Adaptive Asset Allocation Policies, he identifies a class of dynamically adjusting allocation strategies tailored to an invsetor's risk preferences that are macro-consistent, i.e., all investors can follow these strategies and the market will still clear.
Given that Professor Sharpe has focused a lot on applying a macro approach to the "stocks" (i.e., asset allocation) side of things, I was wondering if he has any thoughts on applying a similar approach to the "flows" side of things, and in particular to consumption/withdrawal flows. For example, are there useful conclusions that can be drawn about the individual investor's (or even the average investor's) withdrawal strategy based on macroeconomic equations such as:John Cochrane's Portfolios for Long-Term Investors suggests something along these lines with the following rather cryptic quote:Code: Select all
Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports = Wages + Profit + Taxes
My interpretation is that Cochrane is suggesting that every investor's consumption stream could be funded by a combination of an indexed perpetuity (think Social Security) payout stream and the market dividend stream (i.e., dividend payouts of the cap-weighted market portfolio). And netting everything out, the average consumption stream could be funded by just the market dividend stream. I was wondering if Professor Sharpe agrees with that, and whether he would be willing to elaborate his views on the topic of withdrawal strategies in general.If the indexed perpetuity is the riskless asset, then the consumption claim, that pays one unit of aggregate consumption, must be the risky claim and held by the average investor. People must mix their portfolios between these two claims, with more risk averse people taking more of the indexed perpetuity, and vice versa. And all of this holds with an arbitrarily dynamic and multifactor view of the world.
Best,
Jon
When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one. ~Jack Bogle
Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
If you want to 'enhance' the global market portfolio, you can just add leverage to taste.McQ wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 2:35 pm As Nisiprius mentioned, a Sharpe portfolio could be implemented with just four funds, or really just two, World stock and World bond, per a long-running thread here. Under MPT, that is THE market portfolio, and there can be no more efficient, no more diversified portfolio (if those are all the assets that be).
But Taylor chose to go with a 3-fund portfolio, excluding world bonds; and Bill Bernstein has likewise expressed reservations about international bonds. Vanguard, by contrast, goes with Sharpe.
One argument against foreign bonds is tail risk—1919-1923 and all that. More generally, that foreign government bonds are not risk free in the way that domestic government bonds are. The local sovereign can always issue currency to redeem its bonds at par at maturity; a foreign government can’t necessarily do that for the US dollar investor.
And then there is foreign exchange risk, which, if there is a cost to hedge, may wipe out any diversification benefit.
So the question for Professor Sharpe is, How much more should an ordinary US investor expect from a World Stock – World bond portfolio, relative to holding Taylor’s 3-fund portfolio, in which all the bond weight is placed on domestic total bond?
No one knows exactly, of course; but I would be interested to hear his expectation for the scale of the benefit.
-an extra 10 basis points in return enhancement / risk reduction from including World bonds?
-25 bp? 50 bp? More?
Or—no expectation, just an allegiance to theory: that in the very long run, the whole must be better than any part, even if only by a basis point or two.
You don't need to deviate from the global market weights.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
At what % of your portfolio that is dedicated to equities and/or at what withdrawal rate % rate that is withdrawn from a portfolio do TIPS become unnecessary in retirement ?Jon Luskin wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 5:54 pm Yours truly will be honored to interview for a future podcast episode Bill Sharpe.
Sharpe's work contributed to the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), earning him the 1990 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences. The Sharpe ratio - a favorite of finance nerds - measures the risk-adjusted return of an investment.
You can submit your questions below. (I may include your question in the episode. No guarantees.)
This will *not* be a live episode (Twitter Space). So, the only way to get questions is by submitting them below.
On a personal note, I used the Sharpe ratio to show how index funds outperformed high-fee portfolios for my thesis on endowment investing. So, I am very excited about this interview!
Thank you,
Jon Luskin
Host
Bogleheads® Live
P.S. Listen to past episodes of Bogleheads® Live via the podcast: https://boglecenter.net/category/bogleheads-live/
The Bogleheads® Live series is hosted by me, Jon Luskin, CFP®, a long-time Boglehead®. This podcast is supported by the John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy, a non-profit organization approved by the IRS as a 501(c)(3) public charity on February 6, 2012.
For example, if one has 70% + in equities and a withdrawal rate of < 3% , how would TIPS fit in a portfolio?
I am personally at an 80/20 equity to bond mix and am not utilizing TIPS .
Thank You Jon
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
Thanks for sharing!watchnerd wrote: ↑Sun Apr 02, 2023 4:52 pmIf you want to 'enhance' the global market portfolio, you can just add leverage to taste.McQ wrote: ↑Sat Mar 04, 2023 2:35 pm As Nisiprius mentioned, a Sharpe portfolio could be implemented with just four funds, or really just two, World stock and World bond, per a long-running thread here. Under MPT, that is THE market portfolio, and there can be no more efficient, no more diversified portfolio (if those are all the assets that be).
But Taylor chose to go with a 3-fund portfolio, excluding world bonds; and Bill Bernstein has likewise expressed reservations about international bonds. Vanguard, by contrast, goes with Sharpe.
One argument against foreign bonds is tail risk—1919-1923 and all that. More generally, that foreign government bonds are not risk free in the way that domestic government bonds are. The local sovereign can always issue currency to redeem its bonds at par at maturity; a foreign government can’t necessarily do that for the US dollar investor.
And then there is foreign exchange risk, which, if there is a cost to hedge, may wipe out any diversification benefit.
So the question for Professor Sharpe is, How much more should an ordinary US investor expect from a World Stock – World bond portfolio, relative to holding Taylor’s 3-fund portfolio, in which all the bond weight is placed on domestic total bond?
No one knows exactly, of course; but I would be interested to hear his expectation for the scale of the benefit.
-an extra 10 basis points in return enhancement / risk reduction from including World bonds?
-25 bp? 50 bp? More?
Or—no expectation, just an allegiance to theory: that in the very long run, the whole must be better than any part, even if only by a basis point or two.
You don't need to deviate from the global market weights.
When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one. ~Jack Bogle
Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
If you want to de-risk, you don't need to tinker with the market portfolio.tomsense76 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 26, 2023 12:02 am Considering the market portfolio can't consider any individual investor's situation (except as part of the aggregate), can there be cases where holding the market portfolio is riskier for some investors? If so, would some modest alteration (like tilting) be preferable? How should investors approach this?
Tinkering defeats the purpose of owning the global market portfolio as your risk port.
To de-risk, just hold more in the risk free / LMP / lock-box portfolio.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
It's going on the list!BigDGB wrote: ↑Sun Apr 02, 2023 6:55 pm
At what % of your portfolio that is dedicated to equities and/or at what withdrawal rate % rate that is withdrawn from a portfolio do TIPS become unnecessary in retirement ?
For example, if one has 70% + in equities and a withdrawal rate of < 3% , how would TIPS fit in a portfolio?
I am personally at an 80/20 equity to bond mix and am not utilizing TIPS .
Thank You Jon
When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one. ~Jack Bogle
Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
In addition to the previously asked questions regarding Gold, commodities should you add TIPS hi yield bonds, long term bonds, Reits. how much in %.
I want to know if the Vanguard lifeStrategy fund or ishares AOR is a good enough approximation of the investable global market portfolio as suggested by Longinvest.
I want to know if the Vanguard lifeStrategy fund or ishares AOR is a good enough approximation of the investable global market portfolio as suggested by Longinvest.
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
Love it!jocdoc wrote: ↑Tue Apr 04, 2023 6:14 am In addition to the previously asked questions regarding Gold, commodities should you add TIPS hi yield bonds, long term bonds, Reits. how much in %.
I want to know if the Vanguard lifeStrategy fund or ishares AOR is a good enough approximation of the investable global market portfolio as suggested by Longinvest.
When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one. ~Jack Bogle
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
Love it!jocdoc wrote: ↑Tue Apr 04, 2023 6:14 am In addition to the previously asked questions regarding Gold, commodities should you add TIPS hi yield bonds, long term bonds, Reits. how much in %.
I want to know if the Vanguard lifeStrategy fund or ishares AOR is a good enough approximation of the investable global market portfolio as suggested by Longinvest.
It's going on the list!
When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one. ~Jack Bogle
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
My question isn't particularly erudite, and has probably been rehashed multiple times; but here goes: what's the current thinking on small-cap stocks?
They've been the darlings of high-reward-for-high-risk thinking, but over the past 20 years, they've been a sore disappointment... plenty of risk, but not high reward. Is this just recency-bias? Or is overweighting in small-caps still useful, for investors with long time-horizons, who wish to improve their returns?
They've been the darlings of high-reward-for-high-risk thinking, but over the past 20 years, they've been a sore disappointment... plenty of risk, but not high reward. Is this just recency-bias? Or is overweighting in small-caps still useful, for investors with long time-horizons, who wish to improve their returns?
Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
Again, relating to this, a little more granular question on the TIPS, would be at what level of equity allocation and or withdrawal rate do they or don’t they make sense for an investor?Jon Luskin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 04, 2023 12:06 pmLove it!jocdoc wrote: ↑Tue Apr 04, 2023 6:14 am In addition to the previously asked questions regarding Gold, commodities should you add TIPS hi yield bonds, long term bonds, Reits. how much in %.
I want to know if the Vanguard lifeStrategy fund or ishares AOR is a good enough approximation of the investable global market portfolio as suggested by Longinvest.
Thanks again
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
Great post. I've also appreciated Bill Sharpe's macro market clearing perspective in CAPM, adaptive asset allocation, and the arithmetic of asset management. Simple ideas with tremendous insight.djm2001 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 28, 2023 4:48 pmHere goes...Jon Luskin wrote: ↑Sat Mar 25, 2023 6:36 pmTell me more about this question.djm2001 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 11:25 am How does Professor Sharpe think of the World Bond/Stock portfolio in relation to average consumption? Does the payout stream (dividends and buybacks) from this portfolio fund the average consumption stream? What withdrawal strategy does he believe works best with the World Bond/Stock portfolio (fixed percentage vs. 1/N vs. live off the dividends (and buybacks) etc.) for the average investor?
Professor Sharpe is known for taking a "macro" perspective on asset allocation. He often draws useful conclusions about asset allocation from macro-level properties and equations. For example,However, deciding asset allocation is only half of the problem of investing. The other half is deciding portfolio inflow (i.e., when and how much to invest) and outflow (i.e., consumption/withdrawal). For example, Robert Merton solves asset allocation and consumption/withdrawal as a joint problem (see Merton's portfolio problem). In essence, the investor is dealing with a stock and flow system, and so must reason about both "stocks" (e.g., asset allocation) and "flows" (e.g., consumption/withdrawal). (The linked Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomics article has a great quote from Michal Kalecki: "I have found out what economics is; it is the science of confusing stocks with flows".)
- In The Arithmetic of Active Management, he uses a simple identity (total market = active portion + passive portion) to prove that the return on each passively managed dollar is greater than the return on the average actively managed dollar after costs.
- In his seminal 1964 paper, Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk, he showed that every investor must hold the market portfolio at equilibrium (under certain assumptions, e.g., ability to borrow at the risk-free rate).
- In Adaptive Asset Allocation Policies, he identifies a class of dynamically adjusting allocation strategies tailored to an invsetor's risk preferences that are macro-consistent, i.e., all investors can follow these strategies and the market will still clear.
Given that Professor Sharpe has focused a lot on applying a macro approach to the "stocks" (i.e., asset allocation) side of things, I was wondering if he has any thoughts on applying a similar approach to the "flows" side of things, and in particular to consumption/withdrawal flows. For example, are there useful conclusions that can be drawn about the individual investor's (or even the average investor's) withdrawal strategy based on macroeconomic equations such as:John Cochrane's Portfolios for Long-Term Investors suggests something along these lines with the following rather cryptic quote:Code: Select all
Consumption + Investment + Government Spending + Net Exports = Wages + Profit + Taxes
My interpretation is that Cochrane is suggesting that every investor's consumption stream could be funded by a combination of an indexed perpetuity (think Social Security) payout stream and the market dividend stream (i.e., dividend payouts of the cap-weighted market portfolio). And netting everything out, the average consumption stream could be funded by just the market dividend stream. I was wondering if Professor Sharpe agrees with that, and whether he would be willing to elaborate his views on the topic of withdrawal strategies in general.If the indexed perpetuity is the riskless asset, then the consumption claim, that pays one unit of aggregate consumption, must be the risky claim and held by the average investor. People must mix their portfolios between these two claims, with more risk averse people taking more of the indexed perpetuity, and vice versa. And all of this holds with an arbitrarily dynamic and multifactor view of the world.
Total Portfolio Allocation and Withdrawal (TPAW)
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
It's going on the list!unwitting_gulag wrote: ↑Tue Apr 04, 2023 3:14 pm My question isn't particularly erudite, and has probably been rehashed multiple times; but here goes: what's the current thinking on small-cap stocks?
They've been the darlings of high-reward-for-high-risk thinking, but over the past 20 years, they've been a sore disappointment... plenty of risk, but not high reward. Is this just recency-bias? Or is overweighting in small-caps still useful, for investors with long time-horizons, who wish to improve their returns?
When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one. ~Jack Bogle
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
Got it!BigDGB wrote: ↑Wed Apr 05, 2023 9:33 amAgain, relating to this, a little more granular question on the TIPS, would be at what level of equity allocation and or withdrawal rate do they or don’t they make sense for an investor?Jon Luskin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 04, 2023 12:06 pmLove it!jocdoc wrote: ↑Tue Apr 04, 2023 6:14 am In addition to the previously asked questions regarding Gold, commodities should you add TIPS hi yield bonds, long term bonds, Reits. how much in %.
I want to know if the Vanguard lifeStrategy fund or ishares AOR is a good enough approximation of the investable global market portfolio as suggested by Longinvest.
Thanks again
Thanks,
Jon
When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one. ~Jack Bogle
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
Good topics for discussion!Ben Mathew wrote: ↑Wed Apr 05, 2023 11:20 am I've also appreciated Bill Sharpe's macro market clearing perspective in CAPM, adaptive asset allocation, and the arithmetic of asset management. Simple ideas with tremendous insight.
Thanks,
Jon
When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one. ~Jack Bogle
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
Updated: late June.
When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one. ~Jack Bogle
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Re: submit ?s for Bill Sharpe
Potential question for Dr. Sharpe: Over the course of his career, has he changed his mind about any important financial topics to the extent that he is surprised he previously held a different opinion?
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