MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

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Rick Ferri
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by Rick Ferri »

Leesbro63 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:37 am I just listened. This sort of boils down to my earlier thread on liability matching portfolios, that was started in 2012 and was recently revived.

So I’ll ask my big TIPS question here: Does Mr. Chancellor, anywhere, discuss the big “taxflation” problem of owning TIPS for high income investors with large taxable portfolios? He does not on this podcast.

Rick Ferri, maybe YOU can chime in on this. For large taxable investors who believe we're headed for a 1966-1981 type period, what's the optimal thing to do?
No crystal ball here.

As Chancellor pointed out, during the 1966 to 1981 period, it would not have been fun owning a 60/40 portfolio. Neither stocks nor bonds generated returns over the inflation rate due to unexpectedly high inflation. Had TIPs been around, at least they would have returned over the inflation rate on the bond side. Thus, the idea of owning some TIPS is a hedge against unexpected prolonged high inflation pre-tax.

After-tax is another story. The cost of inflation falls disproportionately on high-net-worth investors who have more in the markets and pay higher taxes. OTOH, many of the same high-net-worth investors gained disproportionately when inflation was low and interest rates approached zero from 1982 to 2022.

The situation for today and the foreseeable future is higher inflation, higher nominal rates but not a real rate of return, and higher taxes. That all adds up to a decline in real wealth. Tough to get around these numbers. Again, I do not have a crystal ball.

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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by NiceUnparticularMan »

Rick Ferri wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 9:43 am OTOH, many of the same high-net-worth investors gained disproportionately when inflation was low and interest rates approached zero from 1982 to 2022.

The situation for today and the foreseeable future is higher inflation, higher nominal rates but not a real rate of return, and higher taxes. That all adds up to a decline in real wealth. Tough to get around these numbers. Again, I do not have a crystal ball.
Yeah, my two cents is if you started working long enough ago and have been saving for a long time in a reasonably Bogleheadish way--well, you have enjoyed a great period for your investments and so now have accumulated a lot of wealth in relation to the income you saved. And if it now takes more accumulated wealth to sustain a given future real income, eh, no big deal.

And for that matter--most such people at least likely have a large portion of their retirement savings in tax-protected accounts, including Roths. Any taxable accounts that they accumulated in ADDITION to maxing out their tax-protected accounts may be more vulnerable to high inflation scenarios, but even having those taxable accounts plus maxed-out tax-protected accounts still puts them way ahead of the curve.

And in fact, when you think in terms of utility and not dollars--yeah, already-wealthy people whose taxable accounts provided less real income might be spending significantly fewer dollar at the margins, but that marginal dollar spending decrease likely will do very little to actually decrease their happiness and general welfare. It is the people who are already in the range where less marginal spending actually can make a significance difference to happiness and general welfare that are truly most vulnerable in these scenarios.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by watchnerd »

NiceUnparticularMan wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 10:11 am
Rick Ferri wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 9:43 am OTOH, many of the same high-net-worth investors gained disproportionately when inflation was low and interest rates approached zero from 1982 to 2022.

The situation for today and the foreseeable future is higher inflation, higher nominal rates but not a real rate of return, and higher taxes. That all adds up to a decline in real wealth. Tough to get around these numbers. Again, I do not have a crystal ball.
Yeah, my two cents is if you started working long enough ago and have been saving for a long time in a reasonably Bogleheadish way--well, you have enjoyed a great period for your investments and so now have accumulated a lot of wealth in relation to the income you saved. And if it now takes more accumulated wealth to sustain a given future real income, eh, no big deal.
That's my POV.

I made plenty of money while the music was playing.

I'm in my early 50s with no debts, a job I enjoy, paid off house, >30x in my portfolio, and financial independence. I really have nothing to complain about.

7 fat years, 7 lean years, as the saying goes.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by Leesbro63 »

Rick Ferri wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 9:43 am
Leesbro63 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:37 am I just listened. This sort of boils down to my earlier thread on liability matching portfolios, that was started in 2012 and was recently revived.

So I’ll ask my big TIPS question here: Does Mr. Chancellor, anywhere, discuss the big “taxflation” problem of owning TIPS for high income investors with large taxable portfolios? He does not on this podcast.

Rick Ferri, maybe YOU can chime in on this. For large taxable investors who believe we're headed for a 1966-1981 type period, what's the optimal thing to do?
No crystal ball here.

As Chancellor pointed out, during the 1966 to 1981 period, it would not have been fun owning a 60/40 portfolio. Neither stocks nor bonds generated returns over the inflation rate due to unexpectedly high inflation. Had TIPs been around, at least they would have returned over the inflation rate on the bond side. Thus, the idea of owning some TIPS is a hedge against unexpected prolonged high inflation pre-tax.

After-tax is another story. The cost of inflation falls disproportionately on high-net-worth investors who have more in the markets and pay higher taxes. OTOH, many of the same high-net-worth investors gained disproportionately when inflation was low and interest rates approached zero from 1982 to 2022.

The situation for today and the foreseeable future is higher inflation, higher nominal rates but not a real rate of return, and higher taxes. That all adds up to a decline in real wealth. Tough to get around these numbers. Again, I do not have a crystal ball.

Rick Ferri
Thank you for that honest, sobering reply. It confirms my guess the new retirees are probably going to have to tolerate an erosion of wealth, perhaps until death, even with a low withdrawal rate. 🤷🏻‍♂️
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by watchnerd »

Rick Ferri wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 9:43 am [
After-tax is another story. The cost of inflation falls disproportionately on high-net-worth investors who have more in the markets and pay higher taxes. OTOH, many of the same high-net-worth investors gained disproportionately when inflation was low and interest rates approached zero from 1982 to 2022.
I thought it was interesting that Chancellor said that ultra-low interest rates increased wealth inequality.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

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So we are back to:
- Continue to earn income, Rick gives us an exemplar of using his intellectual capital and professional reputation to earn income in "retirement"
- Own rental property or a business
- Hope for good health then a quick death
- Save more
- Diversify equities
- Debates on when or if to buy gold (must buy before need which right now looks to have been 2013 to 2018)
- Prepare kids to not rely on a large inheritance
Leesbro63
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by Leesbro63 »

stan1 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:29 pm So we are back to:
- Continue to earn income, Rick gives us an exemplar of using his intellectual capital and professional reputation to earn income in "retirement"
- Own rental property or a business
- Hope for good health then a quick death
- Save more
- Diversify equities
- Debates on when or if to buy gold (must buy before need which right now looks to have been 2013 to 2018)
- Prepare kids to not rely on a large inheritance
Sounds like a roundabout way of saying that it’s going to be difficult to maintain accumulated wealth.
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watchnerd
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by watchnerd »

stan1 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:29 pm So we are back to:
- Continue to earn income, Rick gives us an exemplar of using his intellectual capital and professional reputation to earn income in "retirement"
- Own rental property or a business
- Hope for good health then a quick death
- Save more
- Diversify equities
- Debates on when or if to buy gold (must buy before need which right now looks to have been 2013 to 2018)
- Prepare kids to not rely on a large inheritance
Yes, and perhaps consider how much of equity risk premium you require to take stock risk.

It US stocks are only going to do 0.7% to 2.7% better than bonds over the next decade, do you still want 60% in equities?
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by stan1 »

Leesbro63 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:35 pm
stan1 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:29 pm So we are back to:
- Continue to earn income, Rick gives us an exemplar of using his intellectual capital and professional reputation to earn income in "retirement"
- Own rental property or a business
- Hope for good health then a quick death
- Save more
- Diversify equities
- Debates on when or if to buy gold (must buy before need which right now looks to have been 2013 to 2018)
- Prepare kids to not rely on a large inheritance
Sounds like a roundabout way of saying that it’s going to be difficult to maintain accumulated wealth.
Yes, or that we need to challenge some assumptions and set more reasonable expectations. Back up a step further and realize that in retirement while not working we would expect to spend down assets and the last 40 years of accumulating assets in retirement accounts and real estate while not working was the anomaly not the norm. My FIL retired from Fortune 500 as a manufacturing plant manager in 1986 and cashed out his pension giving it to his local ML office to manage (good choice). Once he survived the Battle of the Bulge and returned home he was riding a rocket of increasing wealth that only went up until he died at 94 in 2019. I'm 40 years younger than him; it's been clear to me since college that my birth year cohort was on a different trajectory than his generation.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by watchnerd »

Leesbro63 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:35 pm
stan1 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:29 pm So we are back to:
- Continue to earn income, Rick gives us an exemplar of using his intellectual capital and professional reputation to earn income in "retirement"
- Own rental property or a business
- Hope for good health then a quick death
- Save more
- Diversify equities
- Debates on when or if to buy gold (must buy before need which right now looks to have been 2013 to 2018)
- Prepare kids to not rely on a large inheritance
Sounds like a roundabout way of saying that it’s going to be difficult to maintain accumulated wealth.
I bet waterfront real estate will still be a fine store of wealth over the coming decades.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by Leesbro63 »

watchnerd wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:59 pm
Leesbro63 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:35 pm
stan1 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:29 pm So we are back to:
- Continue to earn income, Rick gives us an exemplar of using his intellectual capital and professional reputation to earn income in "retirement"
- Own rental property or a business
- Hope for good health then a quick death
- Save more
- Diversify equities
- Debates on when or if to buy gold (must buy before need which right now looks to have been 2013 to 2018)
- Prepare kids to not rely on a large inheritance
Sounds like a roundabout way of saying that it’s going to be difficult to maintain accumulated wealth.
I bet waterfront real estate will still be a fine store of wealth over the coming decades.
Not if the climate change concerns turn out to be correct.
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watchnerd
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by watchnerd »

Leesbro63 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 5:26 pm
watchnerd wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:59 pm
Leesbro63 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:35 pm
stan1 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:29 pm So we are back to:
- Continue to earn income, Rick gives us an exemplar of using his intellectual capital and professional reputation to earn income in "retirement"
- Own rental property or a business
- Hope for good health then a quick death
- Save more
- Diversify equities
- Debates on when or if to buy gold (must buy before need which right now looks to have been 2013 to 2018)
- Prepare kids to not rely on a large inheritance
Sounds like a roundabout way of saying that it’s going to be difficult to maintain accumulated wealth.
I bet waterfront real estate will still be a fine store of wealth over the coming decades.
Not if the climate change concerns turn out to be correct.
Depends on the slope of the land.

Here in WA, lots of hilly properties with stairs down to the water.

FL on the other hand...
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by SantaClaraSurfer »

NiceUnparticularMan wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:35 am Just my own back of the envelope calculations.

There are something like $1.9 trillion in TIPS outstanding:

https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/dataset ... utstanding

As of Morningstar's last report there were over $3 trillion in Target funds, which have been growing over time, not least by becoming an increasingly popular option in 401Ks:

https://retirementincomejournal.com/art ... rningstar/

https://assets.contentstack.io/v3/asset ... 22_(2).pdf

As explained there, the top five Target companies make up about 79% of that, so like $2.6 trillion as of that report, and again that has generally been growing over time. I note Vanguard alone, the market leader, in that report had about $1.2 trillion in its Target funds.

I don't know what the total fixed income held by all those Target funds is exactly (although I do know the ones closer to retirement tend to have bigger AUMs, and those are the ones with more fixed income). But I am confident it is enough that if they all tried to fill those buckets with TIPS, it would at least dominate the TIPS market in adverse ways. And if Target funds keep collectively increasing their share of assets held in 401Ks and such (which seems quite likely), then the problem is going to get worse and worse.
Thanks for the detailed explanation. Truly appreciated!

I'd still love to see an academic article for reference that games this out further, and maybe even an explanation from Vanguard themselves explaining Vanguard's 53% utilization of standard Bond Funds (versus Inflation Protected bonds) for the Withdrawal phase.

I would guess there should be some current Vanguard TDF investors in withdrawal phase who could also indicate whether holding 17% Short Term TIPS has proved sufficient to their needs in the current inflation environment. (Or do people, by and large, move away from their TDFs at that point into other vehicles making this a moot point?)

In response to
NiceUnparticularMan wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:35 am So the concept of IP bonds being preferable for personal retirement savers actually has a long history, one which actually well pre-dates TIPS as it was one of the reasons TIPS were created. Again, DFA does it, the TSP does a version of it, and so on, so it really isn't a new concept in practice either.

I actually think what happened is that since inflation was more unexpectedly low than high in the period of years following the introduction of TIPS, many people ended up concluding nominal bonds were just fine and TIPS were addressing a non-problem.

But to me that was actually an example of recency bias and performance chasing.
The above thought makes me think that there should be a low cost, Boglehead product that solves for this challenge directly. Basically, adding a 'retirement phase appropriate' level of Inflation Protection into retail Bond Index funds intended to be used in the manner we use Bond Funds in the Three Fund portfolio.

ie. Rather than putting the onus on individual investors to game out the level of TIPS to hold, wouldn't it make more sense for all basic Bond Market Index funds incorporate some level of protection from unexpected inflation if this is a fairly universal concern for retirement savers?

We've been steadily adding I Bonds as a long term holding / inflation hedge, but we have also have been honest with ourselves about the likely lack of an any real return after taxes.
Last edited by SantaClaraSurfer on Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by watchnerd »

SantaClaraSurfer wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:12 pm [
ie. Rather than putting the onus on individual investors to game out the level of TIPS to hold, wouldn't it make more sense for all basic Bond Market Index funds incorporate some level of protection from unexpected inflation if this is a fairly universal concern for retirement savers?
No, I don't think that makes sense.

Indexes are supposed to be data-driven according to criteria, such as market cap weight.

Given how much IP bonds one should hold is tied into overall asset allocation and age, I don't see how that would work.

If you just want to include TIPS in the bond market index by cap weight, okay, but that doesn't seem like it would really serve the role TIPS play in portfolio design.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by CraigTester »

Rick Ferri wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 9:43 am
Leesbro63 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:37 am I just listened. This sort of boils down to my earlier thread on liability matching portfolios, that was started in 2012 and was recently revived.

So I’ll ask my big TIPS question here: Does Mr. Chancellor, anywhere, discuss the big “taxflation” problem of owning TIPS for high income investors with large taxable portfolios? He does not on this podcast.

Rick Ferri, maybe YOU can chime in on this. For large taxable investors who believe we're headed for a 1966-1981 type period, what's the optimal thing to do?
No crystal ball here.

As Chancellor pointed out, during the 1966 to 1981 period, it would not have been fun owning a 60/40 portfolio. Neither stocks nor bonds generated returns over the inflation rate due to unexpectedly high inflation. Had TIPs been around, at least they would have returned over the inflation rate on the bond side. Thus, the idea of owning some TIPS is a hedge against unexpected prolonged high inflation pre-tax.

After-tax is another story. The cost of inflation falls disproportionately on high-net-worth investors who have more in the markets and pay higher taxes. OTOH, many of the same high-net-worth investors gained disproportionately when inflation was low and interest rates approached zero from 1982 to 2022.

The situation for today and the foreseeable future is higher inflation, higher nominal rates but not a real rate of return, and higher taxes. That all adds up to a decline in real wealth. Tough to get around these numbers. Again, I do not have a crystal ball.

Rick Ferri
Rick

Not sure I'm tracking your and your guest's logic flow...

What is the catalyst for ongoing high inflation... ?

Bernanke explained that our debt cannot be inflated away because the bulk of our obligations are indexed to inflation.

Voters don't seem to be big fans of inflation so not sure I can see much benefit accruing to a majority of politicians to perpetuate it intentionally.

So why do you believe our situation for the "foreseeable future is higher inflation"?

I'm not saying you are right or wrong, I just haven't heard any compelling reason by you or your guest for why you think it is inevitable?

Please share your insights

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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by watchnerd »

CraigTester wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 11:24 pm
So why do you believe our situation for the "foreseeable future is higher inflation"?
Tight labor supply is one factor among many.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by CraigTester »

watchnerd wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 11:42 pm
CraigTester wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 11:24 pm
So why do you believe our situation for the "foreseeable future is higher inflation"?
Tight labor supply is one factor among many.
I must admit, I didn't study the transcript, but I don't remember that being the stated reason.

And I find it hard to believe that all the doom and gloom talk is ultimately attributed to something that is very likely to get corrected by the forces of supply and demand....Just like it always has in the past...

Will be interesting to hear Rick's answer....
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by watchnerd »

CraigTester wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 11:50 pm
watchnerd wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 11:42 pm
CraigTester wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 11:24 pm
So why do you believe our situation for the "foreseeable future is higher inflation"?
Tight labor supply is one factor among many.
I must admit, I didn't study the transcript, but I don't remember that being the stated reason.

And I find it hard to believe that all the doom and gloom talk is ultimately attributed to something that is very likely to get corrected by the forces of supply and demand....Just like it always has in the past...

Will be interesting to hear Rick's answer....
Demographics are hard to fix via supply and demand.

But one way to meet the demand is to get people off the sidelines of the labor pool by paying more, which is inflationary.

For more on it, you may want to check out Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2023: Beating back inflation
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by Blue456 »

Really good article, thank you for sharing.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by ronnie56 »

Interesting post and subsequent discussion ...

Could someone please explain what is meant by "the huge tax drag of TIPS for high bracket taxable investors" ?
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by Leesbro63 »

ronnie56 wrote: Sun Mar 12, 2023 4:47 pm Interesting post and subsequent discussion ...

Could someone please explain what is meant by "the huge tax drag of TIPS for high bracket taxable investors" ?
Here is an 11 year old, 516 post thread about this:

viewtopic.php?t=106544
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by luminous »

I really enjoyed this episode of the podcast, thanks for pointing out that it is a must listen. Lots to think about for sure.

My takeaway is not that I'm changing my strategy per se, in that I'm not changing my asset allocation, but that I am more likely to (get off my butt and) move my "total bond market" investment in an old 401k over to my old TSP account to increase my invested in the G Fund.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by bikechuck »

watchnerd wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:59 pm
Leesbro63 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:35 pm
stan1 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:29 pm So we are back to:
- Continue to earn income, Rick gives us an exemplar of using his intellectual capital and professional reputation to earn income in "retirement"
- Own rental property or a business
- Hope for good health then a quick death
- Save more
- Diversify equities
- Debates on when or if to buy gold (must buy before need which right now looks to have been 2013 to 2018)
- Prepare kids to not rely on a large inheritance
Sounds like a roundabout way of saying that it’s going to be difficult to maintain accumulated wealth.
I bet waterfront real estate will still be a fine store of wealth over the coming decades.
Meanwhile Outer Banks houses are being washed into the ocean. Friends of mine in the Fla. Keys have incurred tens of thousands of dollars of special assessments for hurricane damages. It is getting expensive to purchase home owners insurance in costal areas of Florida if you can find it.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by watchnerd »

bikechuck wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 12:04 pm
watchnerd wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:59 pm
Leesbro63 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:35 pm
stan1 wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:29 pm So we are back to:
- Continue to earn income, Rick gives us an exemplar of using his intellectual capital and professional reputation to earn income in "retirement"
- Own rental property or a business
- Hope for good health then a quick death
- Save more
- Diversify equities
- Debates on when or if to buy gold (must buy before need which right now looks to have been 2013 to 2018)
- Prepare kids to not rely on a large inheritance
Sounds like a roundabout way of saying that it’s going to be difficult to maintain accumulated wealth.
I bet waterfront real estate will still be a fine store of wealth over the coming decades.
Meanwhile Outer Banks houses are being washed into the ocean. Friends of mine in the Fla. Keys have incurred tens of thousands of dollars of special assessments for hurricane damages. It is getting expensive to purchase home owners insurance in costal areas of Florida if you can find it.
Well, waterfront with some minimum elevation above the water would be preferable.

Here in WA, the terrain in Puget Sound is pretty hilly, so you often have a staircase down to the actual water.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by retiringwhen »

bikechuck wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 12:04 pm Meanwhile Outer Banks houses are being washed into the ocean. Friends of mine in the Fla. Keys have incurred tens of thousands of dollars of special assessments for hurricane damages. It is getting expensive to purchase home owners insurance in costal areas of Florida if you can find it.
People who build houses on sand bars shouldn't be allowed to buy insurance. The house WILL disappear. It is just a question of when.

People used to understand this and beach housing was appropriately disposable including tents.

edited - quoted fixed to reference to correct attirbution.
Last edited by retiringwhen on Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by watchnerd »

retiringwhen wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 7:52 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed Mar 15, 2023 6:35 pm Meanwhile Outer Banks houses are being washed into the ocean. Friends of mine in the Fla. Keys have incurred tens of thousands of dollars of special assessments for hurricane damages. It is getting expensive to purchase home owners insurance in costal areas of Florida if you can find it.
People who build houses on sand bars shouldn't be allowed to buy insurance. The house WILL disappear. It is just a question of when.

People used to understand this and beach housing was appropriately disposable including tents.
Okay, but I didn't say that quote
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by abc132 »

I think a few years of poor returns or inflation will bring people back into the workforce and that over a few years we can automate many jobs away. What we see from ChatGPT is a joke compared to where we are heading in the next decade. It's not going to take many years of sustained job shortages to replace those jobs.

Studying history is very interesting but it does not account for the upcoming changes. Books, art, movies, teachers, programmers, medical diagnosis, law documents, long haul drivers - all of these and many more will be served by AI for a fraction of the cost. Think of how disinflationary outsourcing and globalism were and apply this to an even greater degree. Long term inflation of 4% is unlikely in this scenario although resources such as water and disaster insurance are likely to have greater inflation.

I would say some short term pain and another tech boom are the most likely scenario. We could be only one year into a three year bust but abandoning potential stock growth is unlikely to be the best plan. I'm buying medium to long nominal bonds through the peak and selling them for stocks when interest rates inevitably drop. I own 80% stocks because I believe in the implication of technology. I believe it will benefit all sectors. Our current labor shortage is likely to drive the technology to keep future inflation low.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by Leesbro63 »

abc132 wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 3:01 am I think a few years of poor returns or inflation will bring people back into the workforce and that over a few years we can automate many jobs away. What we see from ChatGPT is a joke compared to where we are heading in the next decade. It's not going to take many years of sustained job shortages to replace those jobs.

Studying history is very interesting but it does not account for the upcoming changes. Books, art, movies, teachers, programmers, medical diagnosis, law documents, long haul drivers - all of these and many more will be served by AI for a fraction of the cost. Think of how disinflationary outsourcing and globalism were and apply this to an even greater degree. Long term inflation of 4% is unlikely in this scenario although resources such as water and disaster insurance are likely to have greater inflation.

I would say some short term pain and another tech boom are the most likely scenario. We could be only one year into a three year bust but abandoning potential stock growth is unlikely to be the best plan. I'm buying medium to long nominal bonds through the peak and selling them for stocks when interest rates inevitably drop. I own 80% stocks because I believe in the implication of technology. I believe it will benefit all sectors. Our current labor shortage is likely to drive the technology to keep future inflation low.
Good post…EXCEPT…good luck with that seriously heavy market timing/predicting/gambling.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by NiceUnparticularMan »

SantaClaraSurfer wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:12 pm ie. Rather than putting the onus on individual investors to game out the level of TIPS to hold, wouldn't it make more sense for all basic Bond Market Index funds incorporate some level of protection from unexpected inflation if this is a fairly universal concern for retirement savers?
I don't think this is really possible as again the total size of IP bonds outstanding is really quite small relative to the total size of the fixed income markets, and I don't think there is any good reason to believe there are actually anywhere close to enough to go around for US retirement savers.

According to this report, IRAs and defined contribution plans alone have like $20 trillion in assets, so you couldn't do a DFA or TSP style allocation to IP bonds with all those assets:

https://www.ici.org/statistical-report/ret_22_q3

And for that matter, the other $12 trillion in defined benefit and annuity reserves presumably uses a lot of fixed income too.

By the way, I understand it would be great if we got confirmation from Vanguard and such that while in theory they should be using a lot more IP bonds for their retirement savers, in practice they can't because the IP bond market is too small in light of their retirement assets under management. But I am pretty skeptical they would openly admit that in such stark terms.
Last edited by NiceUnparticularMan on Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by NiceUnparticularMan »

watchnerd wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:18 pm
SantaClaraSurfer wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 6:12 pm [
ie. Rather than putting the onus on individual investors to game out the level of TIPS to hold, wouldn't it make more sense for all basic Bond Market Index funds incorporate some level of protection from unexpected inflation if this is a fairly universal concern for retirement savers?
No, I don't think that makes sense.

Indexes are supposed to be data-driven according to criteria, such as market cap weight.

Given how much IP bonds one should hold is tied into overall asset allocation and age, I don't see how that would work.

If you just want to include TIPS in the bond market index by cap weight, okay, but that doesn't seem like it would really serve the role TIPS play in portfolio design.
Yeah, and this is really underscoring why doing your fixed income allocation with a market index fund doesn't make much sense to begin with.

Based on the report I linked, there is maybe something like $20 trillion in US retirement savings in bonds (this is assuming that includes most of the annuity and defined benefit amounts, and around half of the defined contribution amounts). But the total size of the US bond markets is something like $50 trillion, give or take. So a lot of the buyers of US bonds are not retirement savers, nor investors on behalf of retirement savers.

So why would anyone assume the market allocation of capital to bonds made sense for a given individual retirement saver in the first place?
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by watchnerd »

NiceUnparticularMan wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:17 am So why would anyone assume the market allocation of capital to bonds made sense for a given individual retirement saver in the first place?
I certainly don't, which is why my market-weight risk portfolio is separate from my LMP bond ladder.
Last edited by watchnerd on Thu Mar 16, 2023 8:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by NiceUnparticularMan »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:30 am
NiceUnparticularMan wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 7:17 am So why would anyone assume the market allocation of capital to bonds made sense for a given individual retirement saver in the first place?
I certainly don't, which is my my market-weight risk portfolio is separate from my LMP bond ladder.
That certainly would seem to make sense. And again pretty much tracks what DFA and the TSP do as well.

And really to some extent Vanguard too, although again they seem to use more risky bonds for LMP purposes than would seem to be optimal.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by abc132 »

Leesbro63 wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 4:03 am
abc132 wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 3:01 am I think a few years of poor returns or inflation will bring people back into the workforce and that over a few years we can automate many jobs away. What we see from ChatGPT is a joke compared to where we are heading in the next decade. It's not going to take many years of sustained job shortages to replace those jobs.

Studying history is very interesting but it does not account for the upcoming changes. Books, art, movies, teachers, programmers, medical diagnosis, law documents, long haul drivers - all of these and many more will be served by AI for a fraction of the cost. Think of how disinflationary outsourcing and globalism were and apply this to an even greater degree. Long term inflation of 4% is unlikely in this scenario although resources such as water and disaster insurance are likely to have greater inflation.

I would say some short term pain and another tech boom are the most likely scenario. We could be only one year into a three year bust but abandoning potential stock growth is unlikely to be the best plan. I'm buying medium to long nominal bonds through the peak and selling them for stocks when interest rates inevitably drop. I own 80% stocks because I believe in the implication of technology. I believe it will benefit all sectors. Our current labor shortage is likely to drive the technology to keep future inflation low.
Good post…EXCEPT…good luck with that seriously heavy market timing/predicting/gambling.
Thanks. The key point in the post is that all sectors benefit so no timing is needed. I'm advocating buy and hold for several reasons
1) you can't time the speculation in anticipation of growth and better profitability
2) a bubble at some point seems possible based on internet of things and AI being put into practical use (bubbles were discussed in the video)

You might realize some profits if great results materialize (stocks-->fixed income), which some would consider timing but is not based on a prediction. Timing is jumping into TIPS because of someone's forecast. If you always planned to add TIPS or need to add fixed income based on outcomes, doing so at +1.5% real seems like a good idea.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by Leesbro63 »

abc132 wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 1:09 pm
Leesbro63 wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 4:03 am
abc132 wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 3:01 am I think a few years of poor returns or inflation will bring people back into the workforce and that over a few years we can automate many jobs away. What we see from ChatGPT is a joke compared to where we are heading in the next decade. It's not going to take many years of sustained job shortages to replace those jobs.

Studying history is very interesting but it does not account for the upcoming changes. Books, art, movies, teachers, programmers, medical diagnosis, law documents, long haul drivers - all of these and many more will be served by AI for a fraction of the cost. Think of how disinflationary outsourcing and globalism were and apply this to an even greater degree. Long term inflation of 4% is unlikely in this scenario although resources such as water and disaster insurance are likely to have greater inflation.

I would say some short term pain and another tech boom are the most likely scenario. We could be only one year into a three year bust but abandoning potential stock growth is unlikely to be the best plan. I'm buying medium to long nominal bonds through the peak and selling them for stocks when interest rates inevitably drop. I own 80% stocks because I believe in the implication of technology. I believe it will benefit all sectors. Our current labor shortage is likely to drive the technology to keep future inflation low.
Good post…EXCEPT…good luck with that seriously heavy market timing/predicting/gambling.
Thanks. The key point in the post is that all sectors benefit so no timing is needed. I'm advocating buy and hold for several reasons
1) you can't time the speculation in anticipation of growth and better profitability
2) a bubble at some point seems possible based on internet of things and AI being put into practical use (bubbles were discussed in the video)

You might realize some profits if great results materialize (stocks-->fixed income), which some would consider timing but is not based on a prediction. Timing is jumping into TIPS because of someone's forecast. If you always planned to add TIPS or need to add fixed income based on outcomes, doing so at +1.5% real seems like a good idea.
Timing is this: “I'm buying medium to long nominal bonds through the peak and selling them for stocks when interest rates inevitably drop.”
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by abc132 »

Leesbro63 wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 4:19 pm Good post…EXCEPT…good luck with that seriously heavy market timing/predicting/gambling.
Leesbro63 wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 4:19 pm Timing is this: “I'm buying medium to long nominal bonds through the peak and selling them for stocks when interest rates inevitably drop.”
Somehow I think purchasing 0.5 years of bond expenses throughout the year in a 40x portfolio is not..
Leesbro63 wrote: Thu Mar 16, 2023 4:19 pm good luck with that seriously heavy market timing/predicting/gambling.
It is a fact that rates go up and down. Selling bonds when they perform well to buy stocks is not predicting what will happen. If rates don't go up any further I can still sell when they drop. There are many threads on such strategies to control volatility and they are not market timing.

My bonds serve two functions
1) preserving the lower bounds of my stock net worth
2) providing spending in early retirement

I can use bonds for either of these purposes without knowing or predicting what will happen in advance. Reacting to realized outcomes is not market timing. The proof is purchasing nominal bonds when everyone is saying they are bad - quite the opposite of market timing.

Following the advice of the video --> putting 50% in TIPS. .. serious market timing. I am not saying it is wrong but it should be recognized.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by KidneyMD »

On the topic of financial history and what we can learn from it, I thought I recalled there was a website and newsletter by a financial historian with new posts/emails on Sundays. I thought this was Chancellor’s work but couldn’t find anything on Google. Anyone know what I’m talking about?
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by er999 »

KidneyMD wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 10:42 am On the topic of financial history and what we can learn from it, I thought I recalled there was a website and newsletter by a financial historian with new posts/emails on Sundays. I thought this was Chancellor’s work but couldn’t find anything on Google. Anyone know what I’m talking about?
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by LowLow »

azphx1972 wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 4:15 pm I love Rick Ferri, but why is this a "must listen"? What actionable steps is someone like me (a set-it-and-forget-it Boglehead style passive investor) supposed to take from it? I mostly lurk on this board but the more I read, the more anxious/frustrated I get when I see topics that make me question my Boglehead approach. The more time I spend reading this board, the more I think I'd be better off staying away from here and just go about living my life, and only come on here when I have specific financial questions. Does anyone else feel the same way? Sorry for the rant, and no disrespect intended toward Mr. Ferri.
I agree with your post. I think a lot of people on this forum actually enjoy investing, financial history, etc. so they like talking about all the nuances, whereas my only interest is in retiring early, so everything I've learned about finances has been with that goal in mind and I'd be happy to not know anything about finances if someone could guarantee that I could retire at 50.

I come to this website once in a while to get some comfort about my (essentially) three-fund portfolio approach, but usually I end up more stressed reading these types of posts. Then I do a bunch of research to try to better understand what's going on and typically end up not making any major changes. That's not because I think it's the best approach, but because I can't wrap my head around the alternatives.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by 9-5 Suited »

In an earlier job, we used to often have people come in who were supposed "innovation experts" and what they would generally do is look backward at historical successful products (like the iPhone) and then proceed to explain all the factors that led to its success, with the stateed or unstated implication that it should have been obviously knowable ahead of time because factors X, Y, and Z of a successful innovation were in place. Then if I asked them to name some little known products today that will have this level of success in 5 years, you get silence or awkward answers that can't be verified.

I feel similarly about these types of explorations of financial history. It's not that there aren't valuable lessons to be learned that someone may be able to benefit from. There are those lessons, hence why I like to listen. But the lessons we take should be broad, and not specific. The biggest one I'm reminded of here is not loading up too heavily on any particular risk which you can't afford to bear. If inflation can wreck your plans, manage down your inflation risk with TIPS, iBonds, and some shorter duration fixed income. Don't count on equities always performing a certain way - carry some non-stock investments. Don't engage in home country bias. Be open to creating other income streams with your time and skills.

My biggest fear with posts and discussions like this is there's this sense in the air that you should be doing something signifcantly different because it's all so obvious and predictable. But it's always left somewhat nebulous as to exactly that would be. I recommend any change someone makes be small at first to avoid behavioral errors - 5% more of X, 10% less of Y, etc. The fundamentals of the Boglehead philosophy and capital markets continue to be what they are, uncertain as that makes people feel.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by abc132 »

9-5 Suited wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 2:36 pm My biggest fear with posts and discussions like this is there's this sense in the air that you should be doing something significantly different because it's all so obvious and predictable. But it's always left somewhat nebulous as to exactly that would be. I recommend any change someone makes be small at first to avoid behavioral errors - 5% more of X, 10% less of Y, etc. The fundamentals of the Boglehead philosophy and capital markets continue to be what they are, uncertain as that makes people feel.
Great advice. I think one of the most recent examples is the "First 20% of fixed income in long term bonds" thread. While the strategy may make a lot of sense, timing a 20% move into long term treasuries carries the same type of risk the strategy is trying to avoid. We saw risk materialize this last year.

The ideal case is where all risks have been considered and sudden changes are not needed. Unfortunately I think many people can't understand risk until it materializes. People were surprised when REITS did poorly in 2008. People thought inflation was conquered but it showed up. People thought bonds would protect them from any decline but they did not.

Reacting to each of these things after the fact is one of the worst investment strategies. People were sure rates would go up and held onto cash after which rates went down. Then they moved into long term treasuries for extra yield and rates went up. Now they are surely flocking into TIPS. If inflation is less than expected they will lose out again.

The better strategy is to evaluate a portfolio, balance risk vs reward to form a strategy, and live with the outcome of the strategy.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by KidneyMD »

er999 wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 11:00 am
KidneyMD wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 10:42 am On the topic of financial history and what we can learn from it, I thought I recalled there was a website and newsletter by a financial historian with new posts/emails on Sundays. I thought this was Chancellor’s work but couldn’t find anything on Google. Anyone know what I’m talking about?
investoramnesia.com
Thank you.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by er999 »

abc132 wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 7:18 pm

Reacting to each of these things after the fact is one of the worst investment strategies. People were sure rates would go up and held onto cash after which rates went down. Then they moved into long term treasuries for extra yield and rates went up. Now they are surely flocking into TIPS. If inflation is less than expected they will lose out again.

The better strategy is to evaluate a portfolio, balance risk vs reward to form a strategy, and live with the outcome of the strategy.
I’m not sure if buying tips now is buying high. Tips have already crashed (LPTZ long term tips etf is down 27% the past year), so buying tips now is more like buying REITs after 2008. I read a lot elsewhere saying tips failed when high inflation showed up with the crash in price with rising rates so I’m not sure how many buyers there are. Surely people on here are more aware of the inflation risk now so they are popular on here.

It’s true that if inflation is lower than the the break even inflation rate of 2.2% nominal long term bonds will do better, but there is a limited downside to tips of losing that 2.2% difference (excluding deflationary scenarios). Now might be the time to buy long term treasuries (particularly if planning on rebalancing in and out) but not much action on that thread now.

For me the big takeaway is you can’t always believe the market is 100% efficient and you can’t ignore price completely. Harder to do with stocks, but with bonds you can calculate the maximum upside with an inflation rate of zero (unless you want to plan for deflation) and see what income you’d get and see whether you’d be happy with that. If not don’t buy longer term nominals unless you’ve using it as a speculative trading instrument on the direction of interest rates and stay short term.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by abc132 »

er999 wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 10:35 pm
abc132 wrote: Sun Mar 19, 2023 7:18 pm

Reacting to each of these things after the fact is one of the worst investment strategies. People were sure rates would go up and held onto cash after which rates went down. Then they moved into long term treasuries for extra yield and rates went up. Now they are surely flocking into TIPS. If inflation is less than expected they will lose out again.

The better strategy is to evaluate a portfolio, balance risk vs reward to form a strategy, and live with the outcome of the strategy.
I’m not sure if buying tips now is buying high. Tips have already crashed (LPTZ long term tips etf is down 27% the past year), so buying tips now is more like buying REITs after 2008. I read a lot elsewhere saying tips failed when high inflation showed up with the crash in price with rising rates so I’m not sure how many buyers there are. Surely people on here are more aware of the inflation risk now so they are popular on here.

It’s true that if inflation is lower than the the break even inflation rate of 2.2% nominal long term bonds will do better, but there is a limited downside to tips of losing that 2.2% difference (excluding deflationary scenarios). Now might be the time to buy long term treasuries (particularly if planning on rebalancing in and out) but not much action on that thread now.

For me the big takeaway is you can’t always believe the market is 100% efficient and you can’t ignore price completely. Harder to do with stocks, but with bonds you can calculate the maximum upside with an inflation rate of zero (unless you want to plan for deflation) and see what income you’d get and see whether you’d be happy with that. If not don’t buy longer term nominals unless you’ve using it as a speculative trading instrument on the direction of interest rates and stay short term.
I agree with what you are saying. To be clear I am not predicting what will happen with regards to TIPS. I am pointing out that those that were wrong the last two times should be careful in doing the same thing a third time. Each troublesome market tends to be different and changing a portfolio to limit what has underperformed recently is the opposite of what is recommended for diversification. Market timing always sounds like a good idea because what happened recently seems obvious in hindsight. The most recent example is those that shorted nominal duration are very unlikely to extend duration before the next time extended duration helps. They are only likely to do this after they see long duration helping. Serial underperformance is the result of this type of past-looking behavior. You have to be able to buy the stuff that has done poorly if you want a well-planned portfolio.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by evofxdwg »

azphx1972 wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 4:15 pm I love Rick Ferri, but why is this a "must listen"? What actionable steps is someone like me (a set-it-and-forget-it Boglehead style passive investor) supposed to take from it? I mostly lurk on this board but the more I read, the more anxious/frustrated I get when I see topics that make me question my Boglehead approach. The more time I spend reading this board, the more I think I'd be better off staying away from here and just go about living my life, and only come on here when I have specific financial questions. Does anyone else feel the same way? Sorry for the rant, and no disrespect intended toward Mr. Ferri.
^This
I look back over 40 years and look at the several times I've done transactions based on reading something either in Bogleheads, other articles, and even Vanguard Portfolio Watch recommendations. Years later it seems like I should have just stayed ultra-simple. Over the years, reading various articles and posts have prompted me to move small chunks from core into TIPS index funds, Small Cap Value index, REIT index, Short Term Bond index, Total International Bond index, Total International Stock Index, Primecap, Global Wellington, and my stupid gambling fund, which I have divested most of, and qualifies for a Bogleheads "I told you so!"

I bought maybe 10% of my portfolio in TIPs index funds more than 25 years ago after reading a lot about them and am not impressed with the total performance. Of course much of that period exhibited falling interest rates. TIPS funds are about 7% of my portfolio now (have not reinvested all dividends). Perhaps I should have bought individual TIPs and not funds. Will I start seeing better total gain in my held TIPS funds due to current inflation? I don't know.

After 5 years of retirement, I've targeted just withdrawing no more than the dividends + taxes each year and keeping the principal around for the (hopefully) future growth years. Whether I should consolidate the rather splintered portfolio (13 funds with bulk in VTSAX and VBTLX) to ultra-simple is still up in the air but I have been selling my one "gambling" fund over the past few years. I debate with myself if a change toward simplicity is just another "knee-jerk" reaction that resulted in the more complex portfolio.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by Rick Ferri »

The Bogleheads on Investing podcast is for educational purposes only. The selection of guests and topics are designed to broaden your understanding of the financial markets, taxes, and personal finance in general. No discussion includes a recommendation to start market-timing or trade securities in an attempt to beat the market. Should you decide to take action based on any idea or opinion, that is your own choice.

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The Education of an Index Investor: born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by abuss368 »

evofxdwg wrote: Mon Mar 20, 2023 2:02 pm
^This
I look back over 40 years and look at the several times I've done transactions based on reading something either in Bogleheads, other articles, and even Vanguard Portfolio Watch recommendations. Years later it seems like I should have just stayed ultra-simple. Over the years, reading various articles and posts have prompted me to move small chunks from core into TIPS index funds, Small Cap Value index, REIT index, Short Term Bond index, Total International Bond index, Total International Stock Index, Primecap, Global Wellington, and my stupid gambling fund, which I have divested most of, and qualifies for a Bogleheads "I told you so!"

I bought maybe 10% of my portfolio in TIPs index funds more than 25 years ago after reading a lot about them and am not impressed with the total performance. Of course much of that period exhibited falling interest rates. TIPS funds are about 7% of my portfolio now (have not reinvested all dividends). Perhaps I should have bought individual TIPs and not funds. Will I start seeing better total gain in my held TIPS funds due to current inflation? I don't know.

After 5 years of retirement, I've targeted just withdrawing no more than the dividends + taxes each year and keeping the principal around for the (hopefully) future growth years. Whether I should consolidate the rather splintered portfolio (13 funds with bulk in VTSAX and VBTLX) to ultra-simple is still up in the air but I have been selling my one "gambling" fund over the past few years. I debate with myself if a change toward simplicity is just another "knee-jerk" reaction that resulted in the more complex portfolio.
This is an excellent post and really speaks out loud and clear. This may impact investors more than one thinks.

For some investors, the simple approach, and to avoid tinkering, may include a reduction or avoidance of investing articles, news, and website, including Bogleheads (unfortunately).

Best.
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by watchnerd »

abuss368 wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 6:47 pm

This is an excellent post and really speaks out loud and clear. This may impact investors more than one thinks.

For some investors, the simple approach, and to avoid tinkering, may include a reduction or avoidance of investing articles, news, and website, including Bogleheads (unfortunately).

Best.
Tony

Ignorance is bliss?

The problem is the tinkering.

Not the consumption of information.
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Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by abuss368 »

watchnerd wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:47 pm
abuss368 wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 6:47 pm

This is an excellent post and really speaks out loud and clear. This may impact investors more than one thinks.

For some investors, the simple approach, and to avoid tinkering, may include a reduction or avoidance of investing articles, news, and website, including Bogleheads (unfortunately).

Best.
Tony

Ignorance is bliss?

The problem is the tinkering.

Not the consumption of information.
Unfortunately for some investors, the consumption of information may increase the probability of tinkering.

All investors are different.

Best.
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
DesertInvestor
Posts: 489
Joined: Tue Dec 20, 2016 12:04 pm

Re: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor

Post by DesertInvestor »

junior wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 7:42 am
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 7:31 pm
A ten year tips yields 2.48, no great shakes. Whereas a ten year treasury is higher now I believe.
The expected return of TIPS and treasuries is roughly the same. TIPS will do better if there is more than expected inflation and treasuries will do better if there is less than expected inflation.
Given that fact wouldn't it be better for someone still working, accumulating, and not living off a portfolio to hold 100% intermediate treasuries for simplification until retirement ?
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