[Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

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technovelist
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by technovelist »

ehh wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 8:33 pm
rkhusky wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 8:06 pm
technovelist wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 7:47 pm
rkhusky wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 6:15 pm
ehh wrote: Thu May 25, 2023 2:31 pm
SS payment date for those enrolling after 1997 is the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th Wednesday of each month - depending on where their birthday falls during the month. In June of 2023, the 14th, 21st, and 28th. For example I was born late in the month, so my SS deposit date is the 4th Wednesday of each month. Reliable so far. We shall see . . .
Yes, I should have said 14th or later.
I was born in the middle of the month and my wife was born in the first week of the month, and we both get it on the second Tuesday of every month. We both started after 1997.
I guess the SS doesn’t always follow its stated schedule. I do note that some banks accelerate deposits by a day or two.
Perhaps technovelist is drawing spousal benefits based on his wife's earnings record? https://www.aarp.org/retirement/social- ... edule.html
For most beneficiaries, the payment date depends on your birth date. If you are receiving payments on the record of a retired, disabled or deceased worker that person's birthday sets the schedule.
Access to the funds on Tuesday rather than Wednesday is your bank or credit union being a bit kind.
No, she gets benefits based on my earnings record. I guess the best answer is "the SSA works in mysterious ways".
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.
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Beensabu
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Beensabu »

Kevin M wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 12:51 pm I noticed US stocks are up about 1.3% as of now, after several days of modest declines IIRC. Then I realized, "Oh yeah, I just read that Biden and McCarthy are close to a deal." Intermediate and long term bond ETFs are generally up nicely today, and shorter term are flat or slightly lower. This goes for nominals and TIPS.
Did you read that yesterday? Markets are closed now. Monday will be interesting.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
jarjarM
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by jarjarM »

Beensabu wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:08 pm
Kevin M wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 12:51 pm I noticed US stocks are up about 1.3% as of now, after several days of modest declines IIRC. Then I realized, "Oh yeah, I just read that Biden and McCarthy are close to a deal." Intermediate and long term bond ETFs are generally up nicely today, and shorter term are flat or slightly lower. This goes for nominals and TIPS.
Did you read that yesterday? Markets are closed now. Monday will be interesting.
I can guarantee US stock market return will be zero on Monday. :twisted: :beer
rockstar
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by rockstar »

Kevin M wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 12:51 pm I noticed US stocks are up about 1.3% as of now, after several days of modest declines IIRC. Then I realized, "Oh yeah, I just read that Biden and McCarthy are close to a deal." Intermediate and long term bond ETFs are generally up nicely today, and shorter term are flat or slightly lower. This goes for nominals and TIPS.
29bps for the week. Lots of caution still out there. Bond yields look like they’re pricing in a Fed rate increase.

Time to enjoy the weekend. Maybe the Pope’s Exorcist will be less scary than the market.

As always staying the course still looks prudent here.
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Beensabu
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Beensabu »

jarjarM wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:13 pm
Beensabu wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:08 pm
Kevin M wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 12:51 pm I noticed US stocks are up about 1.3% as of now, after several days of modest declines IIRC. Then I realized, "Oh yeah, I just read that Biden and McCarthy are close to a deal." Intermediate and long term bond ETFs are generally up nicely today, and shorter term are flat or slightly lower. This goes for nominals and TIPS.
Did you read that yesterday? Markets are closed now. Monday will be interesting.
I can guarantee US stock market return will be zero on Monday. :twisted: :beer
LOL :oops:

Tuesday then. :D
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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FoundingFather
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by FoundingFather »

rockstar wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 9:27 am It’s amazing how much fearmongering on the news can lead people to make poor financial decisions. This is really behavioral economics in action.
Along those lines, one of the hidden blessings of my medical training requiring me to work 80-100 hours a week for months at a time was that, following such a schedule, I would catch up on world events months delayed, and often see the quiet, the storm, the panic, and the uneventful resolution of a given "world in crisis" situation, all in retrospect.

Missing the end of the world a few dozen times helps one to realize how rare of an event it actually is. :wink:

Founding Father
"I do not think myself equal to the Command I am honored with." -George Washington (excerpt from Journals of the Continental Congress, 16 June 1775)
Booogle
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Booogle »

Yellen extended the date to June 5th?

https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/ ... Carthy.pdf
rockstar
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by rockstar »

FoundingFather wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:20 pm
rockstar wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 9:27 am It’s amazing how much fearmongering on the news can lead people to make poor financial decisions. This is really behavioral economics in action.
Along those lines, one of the hidden blessings of my medical training requiring me to work 80-100 hours a week for months at a time was that, following such a schedule, I would catch up on world events months delayed, and often see the quiet, the storm, the panic, and the uneventful resolution of a given "world in crisis" situation, all in retrospect.

Missing the end of the world a few dozen times helps one to realize how rare of an event it actually is. :wink:

Founding Father
Right now I’m interested in supernatural fraud and long cons. It’s amazing how long something will perpetuate before being found out.

I never looked at the news at all until my 40s. I don’t think I’m better off looking at it at all now. Following Buffett’s advice to keep adding to a S&P index fund continues to make perfect sense. That’s what my 401k does. It’s on auto pilot ignoring these end of the world scenarios.

What I have to keep my eyes open to is the hucksters that will make me deviate from this. The financial snake oil sales people are as bad as the mediums Houdini called out for fraud back in his day.

Staying the course is much easier when you avoid the noise. But the more my account goes up, the more the financial hucksters come out of the wood work that want to help me. No one cared when my balance was much lower and help would have been welcomed.

This end of the financial world scenario will end hopefully by the end of the year.
marcopolo
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by marcopolo »

rockstar wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:32 pm
FoundingFather wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:20 pm
rockstar wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 9:27 am It’s amazing how much fearmongering on the news can lead people to make poor financial decisions. This is really behavioral economics in action.
Along those lines, one of the hidden blessings of my medical training requiring me to work 80-100 hours a week for months at a time was that, following such a schedule, I would catch up on world events months delayed, and often see the quiet, the storm, the panic, and the uneventful resolution of a given "world in crisis" situation, all in retrospect.

Missing the end of the world a few dozen times helps one to realize how rare of an event it actually is. :wink:

Founding Father
Right now I’m interested in supernatural fraud and long cons. It’s amazing how long something will perpetuate before being found out.

I never looked at the news at all until my 40s. I don’t think I’m better off looking at it at all now. Following Buffett’s advice to keep adding to a S&P index fund continues to make perfect sense. That’s what my 401k does. It’s on auto pilot ignoring these end of the world scenarios.

What I have to keep my eyes open to is the hucksters that will make me deviate from this. The financial snake oil sales people are as bad as the mediums Houdini called out for fraud back in his day.

Staying the course is much easier when you avoid the noise. But the more my account goes up, the more the financial hucksters come out of the wood work that want to help me. No one cared when my balance was much lower and help would have been welcomed.

This end of the financial world scenario will end hopefully by the end of the year.
What is going to happen by the end of the year to make it stop?!?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Marseille07
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Marseille07 »

Booogle wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:30 pm Yellen extended the date to June 5th?

https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/ ... Carthy.pdf
June 5th was actually mentioned months ago, but the X-day somehow moved up to June 1st. I don't know why Secretary Yellen is resetting it to June 5th now.
rockstar
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by rockstar »

marcopolo wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:40 pm
rockstar wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:32 pm
FoundingFather wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:20 pm
rockstar wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 9:27 am It’s amazing how much fearmongering on the news can lead people to make poor financial decisions. This is really behavioral economics in action.
Along those lines, one of the hidden blessings of my medical training requiring me to work 80-100 hours a week for months at a time was that, following such a schedule, I would catch up on world events months delayed, and often see the quiet, the storm, the panic, and the uneventful resolution of a given "world in crisis" situation, all in retrospect.

Missing the end of the world a few dozen times helps one to realize how rare of an event it actually is. :wink:

Founding Father
Right now I’m interested in supernatural fraud and long cons. It’s amazing how long something will perpetuate before being found out.

I never looked at the news at all until my 40s. I don’t think I’m better off looking at it at all now. Following Buffett’s advice to keep adding to a S&P index fund continues to make perfect sense. That’s what my 401k does. It’s on auto pilot ignoring these end of the world scenarios.

What I have to keep my eyes open to is the hucksters that will make me deviate from this. The financial snake oil sales people are as bad as the mediums Houdini called out for fraud back in his day.

Staying the course is much easier when you avoid the noise. But the more my account goes up, the more the financial hucksters come out of the wood work that want to help me. No one cared when my balance was much lower and help would have been welcomed.

This end of the financial world scenario will end hopefully by the end of the year.
What is going to happen by the end of the year to make it stop?!?
That’s roughly how long this took to get resolved the last time this happened per Wikipedia’s page on it. Lots of short kicking the can down the road before a final resolution. No reason to not expect the same this time. It’s not like it’s almost the same people taking part in this circus as a decade ago.
Last edited by rockstar on Fri May 26, 2023 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
ShadowRegent
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by ShadowRegent »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:44 pm
Booogle wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:30 pm Yellen extended the date to June 5th?

https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/ ... Carthy.pdf
June 5th was actually mentioned months ago, but the X-day somehow moved up to June 1st. I don't know why Secretary Yellen is resetting it to June 5th now.
There's a degree of uncertainty to forecasting the exact date the Treasury would run out of money due to fluctuations in revenue and payments. Previously, the letters have stated that she was confident that the Treasury could meet obligations until June 1, not that she was confident that was the precise "X-date". Yellen indicated that the new date is based on the most recent available data.
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theac
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by theac »

rockstar wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:32 pm

Right now I’m interested in supernatural fraud and long cons. It’s amazing how long something will perpetuate before being found out.

I never looked at the news at all until my 40s. I don’t think I’m better off looking at it at all now. Following Buffett’s advice to keep adding to a S&P index fund continues to make perfect sense. That’s what my 401k does. It’s on auto pilot ignoring these end of the world scenarios.

What I have to keep my eyes open to is the hucksters that will make me deviate from this. The financial snake oil sales people are as bad as the mediums Houdini called out for fraud back in his day.

Staying the course is much easier when you avoid the noise. But the more my account goes up, the more the financial hucksters come out of the wood work that want to help me. No one cared when my balance was much lower and help would have been welcomed.

This end of the financial world scenario will end hopefully by the end of the year.
Yep, funny how that works! :D

Reminds me of Blood, Sweat and Tears
(remake of Billy Holiday's "God Bless the Child"):

...And when you got money,
You got a lots of friends
Crowdin' 'round your door

When the money's gone
And all you're spendin' ends
They won't be 'round any more...
"We keep you alive to serve this ship. Row well...and live." Ben Hur...and The Taxman! hahaha (a George Harrison song)
Marseille07
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Marseille07 »

ShadowRegent wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:49 pm There's a degree of uncertainty to forecasting the exact date the Treasury would run out of money due to fluctuations in revenue and payments. Previously, the letters have stated that she was confident that the Treasury could meet obligations until June 1, not that she was confident that was the precise "X-date". Yellen indicated that the new date is based on the most recent available data.
Well, take a look at this letter: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1196

June 5th was clearly mentioned as early as Jan, 2023.
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Beensabu
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Beensabu »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:44 pm
Booogle wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:30 pm Yellen extended the date to June 5th?

https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/ ... Carthy.pdf
June 5th was actually mentioned months ago, but the X-day somehow moved up to June 1st. I don't know why Secretary Yellen is resetting it to June 5th now.
If you read the letter, it tells you.

They're definitely going to be able to cover the June 1st and 2nd scheduled payments.

There are $92b in scheduled payments for the week of June 5th, and they don't have it all (and there is nowhere left to pull anything from).

So that's that. Week of June 5th.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
TT
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by TT »

The Joint Committee on Taxation and the Congressional Budget Office have published several estimates of TCJA’s expected budget impact. These estimates all show TCJA substantially reducing revenues and increasing deficits over its first decade. The specific amount varies—from about $1 trillion to $2 trillion—for three reasons. TCJA would increase deficits by about $1.5 trillion over 10 years. This figure comes from the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) and Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO’s) conventional score. JCT projected that the law would reduce revenues by $1.65 trillion from 2018 to 2027.
JCT’s original dynamic score found that the TCJA would boost economic activity (not growth) by an average of about 0.7 percent over the budget window. That growth would reduce the deficit impact by about $385 billion—a $451 billion boost to revenues, partly offset by $66 billion more in spending for higher interest rates. Including macroeconomic effects, TCJA would thus increase the deficit by slightly less than $1.1 trillion over a decade. CBO’s 2018 update increased that figure to about $1.4 trillion.
To finance TCJA’s tax cuts, the government will issue additional Treasury securities and pay additional debt service. Including that spending, the deficit effects of TCJA are larger. CBO’s 2018 update, for example, puts the conventional deficit increase from TCJA at almost $2.3 trillion over its first decade. The corresponding dynamic score is a $1.9 trillion increase.
Any way you slice it, the TCJA was a major tax reduction. Tax revenues will average just 16.7 percent of GDP from 2020 to 2024, according to CBO’s latest projections. That’s well below the 17.4 percent of GDP average from 1970 to 2019.

Revenues would rise to 18.0 percent of GDP by 2030 if all TCJA’s temporary provisions expire as scheduled. Revenues would be 17.5 percent of GDP if those provisions are extended.

Those revenues are far below expected spending, which CBO sees rising from 21 percent of GDP in 2020 to 23.4 percent in 2030. Absent dramatic spending cuts or revenue increases, the public debt will continue to grow faster than the economy.

..,and that's the rest of the story
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Weathering
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Weathering »

In this thread, has there been a discussion of what could happen if the debt ceiling is lifted (or should that be a separate thread)? For example, will a lot of treasuries immediately be brought to market? Or will the demand for treasuries increase significantly because the default threat is off the table? Or both? Or? Or are we not allowed to discuss that because it would be pending legislation?

If the Treasury's future actions are known, then it would be actionable to us because I could buy more treasuries now or wait to buy more treasuries later.
rkhusky
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by rkhusky »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 4:05 pm
ShadowRegent wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:49 pm There's a degree of uncertainty to forecasting the exact date the Treasury would run out of money due to fluctuations in revenue and payments. Previously, the letters have stated that she was confident that the Treasury could meet obligations until June 1, not that she was confident that was the precise "X-date". Yellen indicated that the new date is based on the most recent available data.
Well, take a look at this letter: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1196

June 5th was clearly mentioned as early as Jan, 2023.
Wow! Prescient! That was before tax returns in April.
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Beensabu
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Beensabu »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 4:05 pm
ShadowRegent wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:49 pm There's a degree of uncertainty to forecasting the exact date the Treasury would run out of money due to fluctuations in revenue and payments. Previously, the letters have stated that she was confident that the Treasury could meet obligations until June 1, not that she was confident that was the precise "X-date". Yellen indicated that the new date is based on the most recent available data.
Well, take a look at this letter: https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1196

June 5th was clearly mentioned as early as Jan, 2023.
She was talking about a “debt issuance suspension period” for the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (CSRDF) specifically...

That letter was a notification of certain extraordinary measures being taken.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Marseille07
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Marseille07 »

Beensabu wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 5:01 pm She was talking about a “debt issuance suspension period” for the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (CSRDF) specifically...

That letter was a notification of certain extraordinary measures being taken.
Shrug...I'm just saying June 5th was mentioned before as the ex-X date. Then somehow came June 1st (I don't know what the source of this was), then now June 5th again.
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Beensabu
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Beensabu »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 5:15 pm
Beensabu wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 5:01 pm She was talking about a “debt issuance suspension period” for the Civil Service Retirement and Disability Fund (CSRDF) specifically...

That letter was a notification of certain extraordinary measures being taken.
Shrug...I'm just saying June 5th was mentioned before as the ex-X date. Then somehow came June 1st (I don't know what the source of this was), then now June 5th again.
Where was it mentioned as the X-date? Not in the letter you linked.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Marseille07
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Marseille07 »

Beensabu wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 5:21 pm Where was it mentioned as the X-date? Not in the letter you linked.
No, that's the letter and I believe Secretary Yellen also testified before Congress. I think most media outlets actually reported as "early June," but you're just arguing technicality at that point.

I'm actually curious who said June 1st and on what basis.
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Beensabu
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Beensabu »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 5:30 pm
Beensabu wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 5:21 pm Where was it mentioned as the X-date? Not in the letter you linked.
No, that's the letter and I believe Secretary Yellen also testified before Congress. I think most media outlets actually reported as "early June," but you're just arguing technicality at that point.
LOL. We both are. It doesn't really matter at all.

The X-date is now known to be sometime during the week of June 5th. Still not a specific day. It'll just be "ok, so it's today, we're out of $ now".
I'm actually curious who said June 1st and on what basis.
Nobody did. It has been "early June" and "possibly as early as June 1st". People like to seize on a date when given a time frame. They're doing it now with June 5th, when it's "week of June 5th".
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Northern Flicker
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Northern Flicker »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:44 pm
Booogle wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:30 pm Yellen extended the date to June 5th?

https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/ ... Carthy.pdf
June 5th was actually mentioned months ago, but the X-day somehow moved up to June 1st. I don't know why Secretary Yellen is resetting it to June 5th now.
It is an estimate that is tightened up as the date gets closer. It seems unlikely that a specific day would gave been used months ago when it was just an estimate, but if it was used, it was a different thing than today's much tighter estimate. Taxes to be received April 15 and ongoing estimated and other tax receipts are not fully predictable, leading to enough uncertainty to make a prediction of precise day infeasible until it is close at hand.
billaster
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by billaster »

You might be interested in this.

The Man in Charge of Knowing When the U.S. Runs Out of Money

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... ve-lebryk/
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HomerJ
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by HomerJ »

FoundingFather wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 3:20 pm
rockstar wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 9:27 am It’s amazing how much fearmongering on the news can lead people to make poor financial decisions. This is really behavioral economics in action.
Along those lines, one of the hidden blessings of my medical training requiring me to work 80-100 hours a week for months at a time was that, following such a schedule, I would catch up on world events months delayed, and often see the quiet, the storm, the panic, and the uneventful resolution of a given "world in crisis" situation, all in retrospect.

Missing the end of the world a few dozen times helps one to realize how rare of an event it actually is. :wink:

Founding Father
I only update my spreadsheet once a month... so I often notice this... lots of angst in the news and on these boards, and then I finally update my spreadsheet, and we're basically even, so I always thought "Well, that was a lot of fuss for nothing".
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Marseille07
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Marseille07 »

HomerJ wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 11:43 pm I only update my spreadsheet once a month... so I often notice this... lots of angst in the news and on these boards, and then I finally update my spreadsheet, and we're basically even, so I always thought "Well, that was a lot of fuss for nothing".
Given Secretary Yellen updated her guidance today, it is foolish to celebrate anything before June 5th.
countmein
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Re: Am I being sensible by holding money in VUSXX with the debt limit thing approaching?

Post by countmein »

.....
Last edited by countmein on Wed May 31, 2023 1:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
rossington
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by rossington »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 11:48 pm
HomerJ wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 11:43 pm I only update my spreadsheet once a month... so I often notice this... lots of angst in the news and on these boards, and then I finally update my spreadsheet, and we're basically even, so I always thought "Well, that was a lot of fuss for nothing".
Given Secretary Yellen updated her guidance today, it is foolish to celebrate anything before June 5th.
What should be celebrated on June 5th...Higher debt? Lower debt? The same amount of debt?
"Success is going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." Winston Churchill.
Marseille07
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Marseille07 »

rossington wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 5:53 am What should be celebrated on June 5th...Higher debt? Lower debt? The same amount of debt?
I meant to say celebrating a good outcome out of the debt ceiling situation. Right now is too early to say "well, that was a lot of fuss for nothing" as we aren't out of the woods yet.
oxothuk
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by oxothuk »

Marseille07 wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 8:23 am
rossington wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 5:53 am What should be celebrated on June 5th...Higher debt? Lower debt? The same amount of debt?
I meant to say celebrating a good outcome out of the debt ceiling situation. Right now is too early to say "well, that was a lot of fuss for nothing" as we aren't out of the woods yet.
I’ll celebrate if both sides make major concessions in order to reach a deal. That would be a sign that our institutions aren’t totally broken.
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Kevin M
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Kevin M »

Check this out:

Image

These are Treasury ask yields from Fidelity at 2:35 PM ET yesterday, 5/26/2023. The bond market closed at 2 pm ET, so this was after the close--I assume it represents closing yields.

Here are the yields that comprise the V:

Image

So the 5/30 bill yield is +3.20, but the 4 notes/bonds that mature on 5/31 have deeply negative yields, then the 6/1 bill yield is 5.34.

WSJ shows yields of 2.9891, -1.2053, and -2.8767 respectively for the notes/bonds shown here, and it shows the bill yields at 2.853 and 5.484 respectively.

Kevin
If I make a calculation error, #Cruncher probably will let me know.
Booogle
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Booogle »

rossington wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 5:53 am
Marseille07 wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 11:48 pm
HomerJ wrote: Fri May 26, 2023 11:43 pm I only update my spreadsheet once a month... so I often notice this... lots of angst in the news and on these boards, and then I finally update my spreadsheet, and we're basically even, so I always thought "Well, that was a lot of fuss for nothing".
Given Secretary Yellen updated her guidance today, it is foolish to celebrate anything before June 5th.
What should be celebrated on June 5th...Higher debt? Lower debt? The same amount of debt?

The raising of the debt ceiling.
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by rkhusky »

Kevin M wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 11:01 am Check this out:

Image

These are Treasury ask yields from Fidelity at 2:35 PM ET yesterday, 5/26/2023. The bond market closed at 2 pm ET, so this was after the close--I assume it represents closing yields.

Here are the yields that comprise the V:

Image

So the 5/30 bill yield is +3.20, but the 4 notes/bonds that mature on 5/31 have deeply negative yields, then the 6/1 bill yield is 5.34.

WSJ shows yields of 2.9891, -1.2053, and -2.8767 respectively for the notes/bonds shown here, and it shows the bill yields at 2.853 and 5.484 respectively.

Kevin
Wonder what it looks like on Tuesday after incorporating x-date moving to June 5?
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Stinky »

rkhusky wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 12:49 pm
Kevin M wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 11:01 am Check this out:

Image

These are Treasury ask yields from Fidelity at 2:35 PM ET yesterday, 5/26/2023. The bond market closed at 2 pm ET, so this was after the close--I assume it represents closing yields.

Here are the yields that comprise the V:

Image

So the 5/30 bill yield is +3.20, but the 4 notes/bonds that mature on 5/31 have deeply negative yields, then the 6/1 bill yield is 5.34.

WSJ shows yields of 2.9891, -1.2053, and -2.8767 respectively for the notes/bonds shown here, and it shows the bill yields at 2.853 and 5.484 respectively.

Kevin
Wonder what it looks like on Tuesday after incorporating x-date moving to June 5?
Still a “V” shape.

Bottom of the V is on June 5.

Depth of the V depends on the leaks and chatter over this holiday weekend.
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rkhusky
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by rkhusky »

Stinky wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 1:20 pm
rkhusky wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 12:49 pm Wonder what it looks like on Tuesday after incorporating x-date moving to June 5?
Still a “V” shape.

Bottom of the V is on June 5.

Depth of the V depends on the leaks and chatter over this holiday weekend.
Or does it turn into a W? Or a U?
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by rockstar »

rkhusky wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 2:31 pm
Stinky wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 1:20 pm
rkhusky wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 12:49 pm Wonder what it looks like on Tuesday after incorporating x-date moving to June 5?
Still a “V” shape.

Bottom of the V is on June 5.

Depth of the V depends on the leaks and chatter over this holiday weekend.
Or does it turn into a W? Or a U?
No idea. What is interesting is how the 2 month t-bills still have lower rates compared to the 1 month and 3 month t-bills.
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by runner26 »

Breaking Deal in principle reached!
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by stocknoob4111 »

runner26 wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 7:47 pm Breaking Deal in principle reached!
We may have a week of green next week or is it sell on the news, not sure :D
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Stinky »

runner26 wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 7:47 pm Breaking Deal in principle reached!
So now the short term Treasury yield curve might change from a “V” shape to an “L” shape.

(Minus the vertical part of the “L”, of course)
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by torvol »

Wow, my very first post(thank you all for your wisdom)! This is a fascinating start to my beginnings as an investor. Turns out nobody actually wants a default, who woulda thunk it. Though just from a skim, this is still under discussion. First time I'm actually old enough to recognize something of this scale happening on a financial level.
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Jags4186 »

runner26 wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 7:47 pm Breaking Deal in principle reached!
Best possible outcome, although I would have loved to have seen the introduction of a new line of $1 trillion coins.
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by ttboy »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 8:59 pm
runner26 wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 7:47 pm Breaking Deal in principle reached!
We may have a week of green next week or is it sell on the news, not sure :D
Im thinking the market anticipated/knew a resolution was coming over the weekend and hence went up Thursday abd Friday. Maybe a rally at beginning of day Tue but then a fade possible. WAG
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Stinky »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 8:59 pm
runner26 wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 7:47 pm Breaking Deal in principle reached!
We may have a week of green next week or is it sell on the news, not sure :D
The primary benefit of the deal is to allow us to return to the more important news of the day.

Like the NBA playoffs. :D
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Johnny Thinwallet »

Great news, but I'll be even more reassured once it has passed. We have 3 national parks to visit this summer, and I really, really want to enjoy these vacations without risk of closure by NPS due to default.
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Misenplace »

I removed yet another post regarding the 14th amendment. This political issue has already been pointed out by LadyGeek as out of bounds on this thread (indeed, on the forum) in the post here Subject: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

This is a "No politics" forum. See: Politics and Religion
In order to avoid the inevitable frictions that arise from these topics, political or religious posts and comments are prohibited.
Please stay focused on the investing aspects.

Moderator Misenplace

Edited to add: Please note that the forum rules still apply to this discussion. See the reminder that LadyGeek and the site owner Alex Frankt posted above:

Subject: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]
LadyGeek wrote: Fri May 19, 2023 1:43 pm I removed a political post regarding today's meeting with Biden. As noted in the site owner's post: Subject: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]
Alex Frakt wrote: Mon May 01, 2023 8:36 pm We are going to reopen this for the moderators' sanity.

The ground rules are unchanged. Politics, policy, and speculating on future legislative activity are off-topic. What you can do is discuss whether you should be doing anything with your investments.

I will encourage everyone to read the 560+ posts above before posting. It's likely your concern has already been addressed.
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Re: Am I being sensible by holding money in VUSXX with the debt limit thing approaching?

Post by MrCheapo »

countmein wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 2:12 am It's probably fine but I sold my 7 figure money market holding for this reason. My solution is new issue brokered CDs at 3, 6, 9, etc months at about 5% (a little better than the money market). Easy peasy, just push the button on the brokerage site. Not sure if timing works out with your real estate deal.
I'm in the same boat. I put in some brokered CD buys (which close on 05/31 and 06/06). If the debt ceiling thing doesn't get fixed soon I'll let them close otherwise, I'll just cancel the order and go into longer term brokered CDs.
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by LadyGeek »

I merged VartAndelay's thread into the ongoing discussion.

Please see moderator Misenplace's post (2 up from here) regarding the forum rules.
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by JBTX »

Jags4186 wrote: Sun May 28, 2023 3:35 am
runner26 wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 7:47 pm Breaking Deal in principle reached!
Best possible outcome, although I would have loved to have seen the introduction of a new line of $1 trillion coins.
Encouraging but there are still a lot of ways this deal could blow up.
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Re: [Debt ceiling discussion mega-thread]

Post by Valuethinker »

torvol wrote: Sat May 27, 2023 9:54 pm Wow, my very first post(thank you all for your wisdom)! This is a fascinating start to my beginnings as an investor. Turns out nobody actually wants a default, who woulda thunk it. Though just from a skim, this is still under discussion. First time I'm actually old enough to recognize something of this scale happening on a financial level.
Silicon Valley Bank was also quite interesting -- and knock on effects on Credit Suisse and First Republic. In that it gave flashbacks to 2008 for many of us (however there are probably better, earlier, examples).

Basically an old-fashioned bank run. If everyone takes their money out of the bank at once, there is no bank left. AKA "liquidity risk".

Whether there was a risk of contagion (ie bank run on one bank causing depositors to withdraw their money from other banks) or not is something hotly debated here. But it was nonetheless interesting to watch a bank go down.
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