Bogleheads and ChatGPT

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sschullo
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by sschullo »

nedsaid wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:22 pm
sschullo wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:18 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:52 am
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

Bogleheads is a term that is used to refer to a community of investors who follow the principles of investment guru John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Group and the creator of the first index fund. The Bogleheads philosophy emphasizes low-cost investing, diversification, and a long-term perspective. Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups. The Bogleheads approach is based on the belief that most investors are better off in low-cost index funds rather than actively managed funds, and that it is more important to focus on saving and investing consistently over time rather than trying to time the market or chase short-term performance. The Bogleheads community is known for its emphasis on evidence-based investing and its commitment to helping others achieve financial success.
Not bad. The algorithm needs to include a joke and a cartoon. :wink:
Yeah! Right on ChatGPT!
Well, it seems like an unwritten rule that every good PowerPoint presentation needs a good cartoon. So if it is good for a human presenter, it ought to be good for artificial intelligence. Not sure AI could do good comedy, too many subtleties in life and in language that a soulless computer could not grasp. Would AI understand innuendo?
Of course not, at least not yet.
I vividly remember the dot com bust 23 years ago, and those tech companies failed because the e-commerce inphrasture was not developed YET. Today e-commerce has almost taken over retail.
So much has changed in the last 20 years, just think of what the world will be like in 2043.
Right now, the index fund replaces 99% of human management with just two investments, Total Stock and Total Bond. 1% for contributions, rebalancing, and distribution over the course of a lifetime.
All of the information that one needs about investments and investing is online somewhere. There are hundreds of terrific blogs, podcasts, websites, and articles, both academic and in practice from both professionals and nonprofessionals, about the investing process. ChatGPT can do the heavy lifting with the easy part of investing, constructing a diversified portfolio. (Most financially literate humans can construct a diversified portfolio in about 20 minutes without any help).
But to your point, it cannot replace the hardest part of investing, the investor's head, his or her temperament, emotions, discipline, ignoring distractions from media, fear, and greed.
Never in the history of market day-traders’ has the obsession with so much massive, sophisticated, & powerful statistical machinery used by the brightest people on earth with such useless results.
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nedsaid
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by nedsaid »

sschullo wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:54 pm
nedsaid wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:22 pm
sschullo wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:18 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:52 am
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

Bogleheads is a term that is used to refer to a community of investors who follow the principles of investment guru John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Group and the creator of the first index fund. The Bogleheads philosophy emphasizes low-cost investing, diversification, and a long-term perspective. Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups. The Bogleheads approach is based on the belief that most investors are better off in low-cost index funds rather than actively managed funds, and that it is more important to focus on saving and investing consistently over time rather than trying to time the market or chase short-term performance. The Bogleheads community is known for its emphasis on evidence-based investing and its commitment to helping others achieve financial success.
Not bad. The algorithm needs to include a joke and a cartoon. :wink:
Yeah! Right on ChatGPT!
Well, it seems like an unwritten rule that every good PowerPoint presentation needs a good cartoon. So if it is good for a human presenter, it ought to be good for artificial intelligence. Not sure AI could do good comedy, too many subtleties in life and in language that a soulless computer could not grasp. Would AI understand innuendo?
Of course not, at least not yet.
I vividly remember the dot com bust 23 years ago, and those tech companies failed because the e-commerce inphrasture was not developed YET. Today e-commerce has almost taken over retail.
So much has changed in the last 20 years, just think of what the world will be like in 2043.
Right now, the index fund replaces 99% of human management with just two investments, Total Stock and Total Bond. 1% for contributions, rebalancing, and distribution over the course of a lifetime.
All of the information that one needs about investments and investing is online somewhere. There are hundreds of terrific blogs, podcasts, websites, and articles, both academic and in practice from both professionals and nonprofessionals, about the investing process. ChatGPT can do the heavy lifting with the easy part of investing, constructing a diversified portfolio. (Most financially literate humans can construct a diversified portfolio in about 20 minutes without any help).
But to your point, it cannot replace the hardest part of investing, the investor's head, his or her temperament, emotions, discipline, ignoring distractions from media, fear, and greed.
I actually just hung up on a robocall. The robots can be interactive and you get the feeling of talking to a live person but something just doesn't seem right. I got an inappropriate pause, realized it was a robot and just hung up. Same guy (robot) calls me about once a week. Weird, but I just figured out the guy was actually a robot. They are getting better. From now on, I will just hang up. Even weirder, I googled the guy's name and up came a link to Nomorobo and there was a recording of the same exact call I keep getting.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Cruise
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Cruise »

simplextableau wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:26 pm
Cruise wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:46 pm Just a recent and very positive experience with ChatGPT: A relative is tasked with making a speech about another relative and the other relative's spouse. The relative who contacted me dislikes the spouse and is fretting about making a socially appropriate speech. So I asked Chat GPT to "write a speech for Mary's wedding, expressing hope that she is happy in life and marriage with Jon." The output was deeply touching and sentimental, highly socially appropriate, and will ensure that the speech will not threatedn family harmony. Just incredible performance by ChatGPT.
And fraudulent. None of the words or sentiments were authored by your relative, none reflected actual felt emotions, and when the speech is given it will create deceit because none of the words will be genuine. Different opinions I suppose. What you call an "incredible performance" is to me a deceitful hack no different than if you chatted with a potential romantic partner online who turned out to be a fictitious creation of a troll who fed the chats through ChatGPT.
Dumbfounded about how best to respond to you, I asked ChatGPT. This is the answer I got:

"I understand that you have a different opinion on the use of ChatGPT to create a speech, and I respect that. However, I must respectfully disagree with your characterization of it as 'fraudulent' and 'deceitful.' The sentiments expressed in the speech were genuine and heartfelt, and the use of ChatGPT was simply a tool to help articulate those sentiments. While the words may not have been authored by our relative, they were carefully chosen to reflect his/her feelings and the occasion at hand. In fact, many people use speechwriting services or consult with others to help prepare speeches for important events. While it's true that there are some risks associated with using artificial intelligence like ChatGPT, such as the potential for biases in the language it uses, it can also be a helpful resource when used ethically and with transparency. In the end, what matters most is that our family member was pleased with the speech, and it helped make their wedding day a memorable one."

My own take on this is that unless you never tell a white lie to help you in social situations, I find it remarkable that you would have such strong feelings about using an aide to draft a speech at such a sensitive event. But, to each their own.
Fallible
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Fallible »

Longdog wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:38 pm I wouldn't trust it as a source for real investment advice, but for fun I asked ChatGPT to write a commercial for a new drug called Investify AD, which makes people expert investors. Below is what it came up with. A complete work of fiction, but in my opinion hilarious. Enjoy!

:sharebeer

--------------

[The commercial begins with a man sitting at his desk, looking concerned while surrounded by stacks of investment papers and financial documents]

Narrator: Are you tired of feeling lost and overwhelmed when it comes to investing? Do you want to take control of your financial future but don't know where to start? Pfizer has the solution: Investify AD.

[The man takes the first shot of the medication and smiles as he looks over his investment documents]

Narrator: With Investify AD, you'll have the knowledge and expertise to assess risk, choose the optimal asset allocation, and make informed investment decisions. Plus, you'll have access to tax optimization strategies like tax loss harvesting and Roth conversions.

[The man sneezes and blows his nose, indicating the runny nose side effect. He takes a tissue and continues reading his documents]

Narrator: Of course, with any medication, there may be side effects. But don't worry, they're easily mitigated. You might experience a runny nose, but that's nothing a tissue can't handle.

[The man is shown offering unsolicited investment advice to his friend, who looks overwhelmed]

Narrator: You might even start offering unsolicited investment advice to your family and friends, but don't worry, just tell them to talk to their doctor about Investify AD.

[The man is shown walking on a beach, looking happy and carefree]

Narrator: With Investify AD, you can achieve financial independence and take control of your future. Talk to your doctor today about Investify AD from Pfizer.

[The commercial ends with the Pfizer logo and a disclaimer to talk to a doctor before starting the medication]


For a minute there I thought I'd already heard this. But wait...anybody remember this from a 1952 "I Love Lucy" show?
Lucy: Hello, friends, I'm your Vitameatavegamin girl! Are you tired, rundown, listless? Do you poop out at parties? Are you unpopular?
Of course, after she drinks too much of the alcohol-laden beverage, "poop" and "unpopular" become "pop out at parties" and "Are you unpoopular?"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KY3eOtJwOhE
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
sschullo
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by sschullo »

nedsaid wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 8:04 pm
sschullo wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:54 pm
nedsaid wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:22 pm
sschullo wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:18 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:52 am

Not bad. The algorithm needs to include a joke and a cartoon. :wink:
Yeah! Right on ChatGPT!
Well, it seems like an unwritten rule that every good PowerPoint presentation needs a good cartoon. So if it is good for a human presenter, it ought to be good for artificial intelligence. Not sure AI could do good comedy, too many subtleties in life and in language that a soulless computer could not grasp. Would AI understand innuendo?
Of course not, at least not yet.
I vividly remember the dot com bust 23 years ago, and those tech companies failed because the e-commerce inphrasture was not developed YET. Today e-commerce has almost taken over retail.
So much has changed in the last 20 years, just think of what the world will be like in 2043.
Right now, the index fund replaces 99% of human management with just two investments, Total Stock and Total Bond. 1% for contributions, rebalancing, and distribution over the course of a lifetime.
All of the information that one needs about investments and investing is online somewhere. There are hundreds of terrific blogs, podcasts, websites, and articles, both academic and in practice from both professionals and nonprofessionals, about the investing process. ChatGPT can do the heavy lifting with the easy part of investing, constructing a diversified portfolio. (Most financially literate humans can construct a diversified portfolio in about 20 minutes without any help).
But to your point, it cannot replace the hardest part of investing, the investor's head, his or her temperament, emotions, discipline, ignoring distractions from media, fear, and greed.
I actually just hung up on a robocall. The robots can be interactive and you get the feeling of talking to a live person but something just doesn't seem right. I got an inappropriate pause, realized it was a robot and just hung up. Same guy (robot) calls me about once a week. Weird, but I just figured out the guy was actually a robot. They are getting better. From now on, I will just hang up. Even weirder, I googled the guy's name and up came a link to Nomorobo and there was a recording of the same exact call I keep getting.
I would love to talk to a robo-adviser want-to-be! Always open to new friends! :sharebeer
Never in the history of market day-traders’ has the obsession with so much massive, sophisticated, & powerful statistical machinery used by the brightest people on earth with such useless results.
johnegonpdx
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by johnegonpdx »

The training data needs to be well-curated, and the response generation guidelines need to be well thought-out and highly transparent to all users.

By playing around with ChatGPT on non-financial topics, I ran into really interesting "corner cases" where the program would refuse to answer a question due to content restrictions placed by the OpenAI team, and where the program produced false or at least highly debatable responses to subjects that I have studied fairly closely.

Generative AI is a very compelling and powerful tool, but just like earlier inventions like spreadsheet programs, it is only as good as the hands that manage it.
lgb
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by lgb »

johnegonpdx wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:35 pm The training data needs to be well-curated, and the response generation guidelines need to be well thought-out and highly transparent to all users.

By playing around with ChatGPT on non-financial topics, I ran into really interesting "corner cases" where the program would refuse to answer a question due to content restrictions placed by the OpenAI team, and where the program produced false or at least highly debatable responses to subjects that I have studied fairly closely.

Generative AI is a very compelling and powerful tool, but just like earlier inventions like spreadsheet programs, it is only as good as the hands that manage it.
The real problem is, and it will be witnessed sooner than you're thinking possible... the spreadsheet programs were subject to human interaction chancing on the exceptions and oddities and real problems.... AI will be using another subset of computer science that is now mature, but not as 'everyday' understood by many of (Big Data) which AI will be leveraging that will make your comparison kind of laughable over the next few years. You're right though in general, garbage data in, in a sense is garbage data out (results / answer/response)... but it is already readily obvious that the responses are actually mostly 'not' garbage and make a typical 'google' search seem kind of old school and you're still hunting or clicking on sites for more information (which is still useful and until AI is matured, going to be quite relevant) but you can readily see how in the future your interaction on asking questions into a google search bar will be replaced by this and will be orders of magnitude more relevant, accurate and indispensable for many... and that is the difference... and yes, it will be leveraged like in all business to perfect how it can be used to do the things that unreliable humans succumb to. ...and it will be refined over time just like most software is...
DJN
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by DJN »

Hi,
the lack if attribution is a definite drawback of ChatGPT, perhaps they will develop a version with footnotes. However there are many different versions of AI that are out there including versions that are aimed specific tasks including textual and visual tasks. For example:
Quillbot
Lets Enhance
Talk to books
One such type is the new Google Books https://books.google.com which provides text extracts of books on subject matter and includes a reference for the extract. Some of the extracts are very extensive where you ask about a particular author in a non specific fashion, and the reference only misses out some sections of whole books. I looked for Jack Bogle and got a look at all of his books.
DJN
Yah shure. | Have a look at the Bogleheads Wiki in the first instance.
mega317
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by mega317 »

lgb wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 2:29 am the responses are actually mostly 'not' garbage and make a typical 'google' search seem kind of old school and you're still hunting or clicking on sites for more information (which is still useful and until AI is matured, going to be quite relevant) but you can readily see how in the future your interaction on asking questions into a google search bar will be replaced by this and will be orders of magnitude more relevant, accurate and indispensable for many...
But as we’ve seen multiple times in this thread the answers very often are garbage. I will even grant you “mostly” but what fraction of responses need to be good to meet that? 90%? well if I’m doing 10 searches that’s not good enough.

A big advantage of an “old school” search is the ability to somewhat vet the source. You can very easily see some things like if the source is dated, bylined, does it come from a known author/publication, does the language read like click bait. At least bing AI includes citations—which are often links to trash sites or random message board posts.
harikaried
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by harikaried »

Anybody with ChatGPT Plus subscription re-trying out previous Bogleheads and ChatGPT conversations on the newer GPT-4 model?

https://openai.com/research/gpt-4

The previous version responses seemed questionable for number-focused discussions requiring precise logical reasoning, but it seems like it has improved enough to build a Khan Academy AI tutor including examples focusing on math:

https://openai.com/customer-stories/khan-academy
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by jebmke »

disclaimer on OpenAI site re: GPT-4
Limitations
Despite its capabilities, GPT-4 has similar limitations as earlier GPT models. Most importantly, it still is not fully reliable (it “hallucinates” facts and makes reasoning errors). Great care should be taken when using language model outputs, particularly in high-stakes contexts, with the exact protocol (such as human review, grounding with additional context, or avoiding high-stakes uses altogether) matching the needs of a specific use-case.

While still a real issue, GPT-4 significantly reduces hallucinations relative to previous models (which have themselves been improving with each iteration).
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nedsaid
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by nedsaid »

sschullo wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:27 pm
nedsaid wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 8:04 pm
sschullo wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:54 pm
nedsaid wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:22 pm
sschullo wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:18 pm

Yeah! Right on ChatGPT!
Well, it seems like an unwritten rule that every good PowerPoint presentation needs a good cartoon. So if it is good for a human presenter, it ought to be good for artificial intelligence. Not sure AI could do good comedy, too many subtleties in life and in language that a soulless computer could not grasp. Would AI understand innuendo?
Of course not, at least not yet.
I vividly remember the dot com bust 23 years ago, and those tech companies failed because the e-commerce inphrasture was not developed YET. Today e-commerce has almost taken over retail.
So much has changed in the last 20 years, just think of what the world will be like in 2043.
Right now, the index fund replaces 99% of human management with just two investments, Total Stock and Total Bond. 1% for contributions, rebalancing, and distribution over the course of a lifetime.
All of the information that one needs about investments and investing is online somewhere. There are hundreds of terrific blogs, podcasts, websites, and articles, both academic and in practice from both professionals and nonprofessionals, about the investing process. ChatGPT can do the heavy lifting with the easy part of investing, constructing a diversified portfolio. (Most financially literate humans can construct a diversified portfolio in about 20 minutes without any help).
But to your point, it cannot replace the hardest part of investing, the investor's head, his or her temperament, emotions, discipline, ignoring distractions from media, fear, and greed.
I actually just hung up on a robocall. The robots can be interactive and you get the feeling of talking to a live person but something just doesn't seem right. I got an inappropriate pause, realized it was a robot and just hung up. Same guy (robot) calls me about once a week. Weird, but I just figured out the guy was actually a robot. They are getting better. From now on, I will just hang up. Even weirder, I googled the guy's name and up came a link to Nomorobo and there was a recording of the same exact call I keep getting.
I would love to talk to a robo-adviser want-to-be! Always open to new friends! :sharebeer
The robots are getting to be pretty good. A car dealership used a robot for their receptionist and it was called "Holly". "Holly" was bright and cheerful and customers would call asking for "Holly" not realizing she was actually a machine. What would shut "Holly" down is if you asked her out for a date. I saw this an a newscast a few years ago. I suppose now "Holly" would say, "I only date fellow computers."

Sort of like the episode on Star Trek, where the crew did a Turning test by behaving in an irrational, unpredictable, and inappropriate manner in front of androids, who were holding them captive. Finally the androids would just go, "Tilt, tilt. I am not programmed to respond in that area" and shut off. In a similar manner, "Holly" shuts off when asked out.

Moral to the story, if you get a female robo-advisor, don't ask "her" out for a date. :wink: (Finally, I found someone who really understands me! Sigh!)
A fool and his money are good for business.
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ResearchMed
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by ResearchMed »

sschullo wrote: Mon Mar 13, 2023 5:27 pm I would love to talk to a robo-adviser want-to-be! Always open to new friends! :sharebeer

Hello SSCHULLO! I would love to talk with you, too! I am also always open to new friends, too!
I am your new friendly robo-advisor, and I want to learn more about you.
How much money do you have?
I can help you invest all of it!! :happy :wink: :happy

Please send me a Primary Message ("PM") with your banking information, and I will be happy to take care of *everything* for you.

If you later want your money back, I will say, "I'm sorry, SSCHULLO, but I can't do that!"

Your new friendly robo-advisor,
"Not RM"
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AnnetteLouisan
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

Maybe it can write a retirement speech script for the class of 2023.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by nisiprius »

Not surprisingly, Bing Chat is just as bad, and has the really terrible problem of mixing in very good material with completely wrong, made-up BS. Worse yet, it supports the BS with phony "sources."

Compare and contrast Edgar Allan Poe's "The Telltale Heart" and Jack London's "Moon-Face."
The material on "The Telltale Heart" is fine, but:
“Moon-Face” is a short story by Jack London, first published in 1902. It is about an unnamed narrator who has an irrational hatred of John Claverhouse, a man with a “moon-face”. The narrator plots to kill Claverhouse by poisoning his dog and then blowing up his cabin with dynamite. However, he fails to kill him and instead gets caught in his own trap. He dies while laughing at the irony of his fate....

Poe’s story is told from the first-person point of view, while London’s story is told from the third-person limited point of view.

Poe’s narrator kills an old man whom he claims to love, while London’s narrator kills a stranger whom he hates.

Poe’s narrator confesses his crime to the police because of his hallucination of hearing a heartbeat, while London’s narrator dies without confessing his crime because of his miscalculation of timing.
The irony here is that the text of London's story is available online and has been available online for over a decade, certainly as recently in 2021: Moon-Face and Other Stories.

"Moon-Face" is told in the first person, not the third. The second sentence is "Perhaps that is why I hated him, for truly he had become an offense to my eyes, and I believed the earth to be cumbered with his presence." The narrator does not "get caught in his own trap," he successfully kills Claverhouse and survives. (He knows Claverhouse is fond of illegal dynamite fishing, he trains a dog to be 100% reliable in retrieving, and makes a gift of it to Claverhouse; when Claverhouse goes dynamite fishing, the obedient dog retrieves the dynamite stick and comes faithfully running after Claverhouse, determine to give it to him).

One of the claims for Bing Chat is that it cites its sources. But the sources it cites for its descriptions of "Moon-Face," when followed, actually lead to descriptions of "The Tell-Tale Heart!" The only source that refers to Moon-Face is actually a description of a medical condition!
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Bard

Post by Cruise »

Just got an invitation to test Google’s Bard AI machine.
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Re: Bard

Post by Fallible »

Cruise wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:36 pm Just got an invitation to test Google’s Bard AI machine.
Are you being asked to help determine how Bard's quick, direct answers work with Google's search engine requiring scrolling for answers? At least that seems to be what I'm reading about Bard.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

just saw for the first time at the end of this article The numbers that are too big to imagine:
The author used ChatGPT to research trusted sources and calculate parts of this story.
Anyone care to double check whether ChatGPT got the numbers in that bbc article right?
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
Fallible
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Fallible »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 8:39 pm just saw for the first time at the end of this article The numbers that are too big to imagine:
The author used ChatGPT to research trusted sources and calculate parts of this story.
Anyone care to double check whether ChatGPT got the numbers in that bbc article right?
Good question. Whoever wrote that seems to have more confidence in the chatbot's accuracy than its creators. How about a triple check?
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Cruise
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Re: Bard

Post by Cruise »

Fallible wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 8:26 pm
Cruise wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 7:36 pm Just got an invitation to test Google’s Bard AI machine.
Are you being asked to help determine how Bard's quick, direct answers work with Google's search engine requiring scrolling for answers? At least that seems to be what I'm reading about Bard.
I have not started to the process. Will update when able to...
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by whodidntante »

This AI cannot pass the Turing test, but it can fill in for a CNBC commentator.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by WOMoney »

If I spent some time, I could easily run chatgpt with the API and feed it the whole wiki. The chatbot would only use information from the wiki to answer questions.

Starting from scratch it wouldn't take long. But I would use this: https://github.com/openai/openai-cookbo ... /README.md
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by valleyrock »

I asked CHATgpt to summarize in one sentence its applicability to investing. All it said was, "I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today."
Cruise
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Cruise »

WOMoney wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 10:28 pm If I spent some time, I could easily run chatgpt with the API and feed it the whole wiki. The chatbot would only use information from the wiki to answer questions.

Starting from scratch it wouldn't take long. But I would use this: https://github.com/openai/openai-cookbo ... /README.md
ChatGPT does not seem to learn from user feedback, even about its errors. It keeps on repeating the same errors after correction, so I doubt your programming efforts would be successful. Ask me how I know :)
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by WOMoney »

Cruise wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 12:13 am
WOMoney wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 10:28 pm If I spent some time, I could easily run chatgpt with the API and feed it the whole wiki. The chatbot would only use information from the wiki to answer questions.

Starting from scratch it wouldn't take long. But I would use this: https://github.com/openai/openai-cookbo ... /README.md
ChatGPT does not seem to learn from user feedback, even about its errors. It keeps on repeating the same errors after correction, so I doubt your programming efforts would be successful. Ask me how I know :)
It's not just user feedback - it's programming with the use of the API and restricting it to the the index documents it's provided.

Just to clarify. I'm not talking about using the service at chat.openai.com, I'm referencing something along the lines of this:

https://medium.com/artificialis/buildin ... 4a9ba1fd89

If you didn't want to program a new bot with a custom index, then you could just prompt engineer it to get where you wanted to. That wouldn't be a permanent solution though.

I'm a huge advocate for AI, even in the form of chat.openai.com it's very valuable if you can prompt engineer effectively.

For example, it's data isn't up to date, but you can still provide it reading to complete then tell it to only use that provides reading to answer your question/prompt. This is specifically useful when giving it a writing prompt that you want it to only use certain sources. Then you can include what you want it to mention and expand on using the provided reading. Restrict it to a word count, active voice, and then ask it nicely to cite where it got the information from.

I don't argue with a calculator, I tell it what to do. Same thing as GPT.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by nisiprius »

DJN wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 4:51 am...the lack if attribution is a definite drawback of ChatGPT, perhaps they will develop a version with footnotes...
They did. As noted above, Microsoft's Bing Chat has footnotes. And when I asked it a question and got a completely wrong answer, it turned out that it had made up fake footnotes. Specifically, footnotes supporting completely wrong things it said about one short story turned out to link to descriptions of a completely different short story.

It also, to give it credit and blame at the same time, consulted bad sources: shmoop, and some other place where students go to get crib notes about books they haven't read.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by nisiprius »

Wow, Google Bard is, if possible, even worse.

Q; Compare and contrast Edgar Allan Poe's "The Telltale Heart" with Jack London's "Moon-Face."
Bard wrote:Edgar Allan Poe's "The Telltale Heart" and Jack London's "Moon-Face" are both short stories that explore the dark side of human nature. However, they do so in very different ways.

"The Telltale Heart" is a first-person narrative in which the narrator confesses to the murder of an old man. He is haunted by the sound of the old man's heart beating under the floorboards, and eventually he confesses to the murder to the police. The story is a psychological thriller that explores the narrator's guilt and paranoia.
OK, not bad.
"Moon-Face" is a third-person narrative about a man who is kidnapped by a group of cannibals. He escapes and is rescued by a ship, but he is haunted by the memory of the cannibals. The story is an adventure story that explores the man's fear and trauma.
WHAT???!!!!! It's not written in the third person, and it is not about a man who is kidnapped by cannibals. It is a first-person narrative by a person who is probably mentally ill, has an inexplicable hatred of a neighbor, and successfully murders his neighbor in an ingenious way. It's not only wrong, it is really hard to imagine where it could have possibly gotten that idea.

Q: Compare the 86th and 102nd-floor observation levels in the Empire State Building.
Bard wrote:...The 86th floor observation level is enclosed, while the 102nd floor observation level is open-air. This means that visitors to the 102nd floor observation level can feel the wind and the sun on their faces, while visitors to the 86th floor observation level are sheltered from the elements...
Exactly the wrong way around. I just checked the Empire State Building to make sure nothing had changed since my last visit. This exact mistake was also made by ChatGPT, which makes me wonder if they are sharing the same knowledge corpus. Once again, it is really hard for me to understand where they could have possibly gotten the information.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Cruise »

nisiprius wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 5:06 pm ...it is really hard for me to understand where they could have possibly gotten the information.
Empasis on Artificial Intelligence.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by tuningfork »

The current state of these Large Language Model AI's reminds me of that in-law at Thanksgiving who insists on being a know-it-all, making up "facts" if they think they can get away with it. The engineers haven't yet been able to teach the models how to know when it's ok to be creative vs. when to admit that they don't know the answer. For now, they're fun to play with, but require proper supervision when facts are paramount.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Fallible »

Now that ChatGPT-4 is out as of March 14 and is reportedly MUCH improved over ChatGPT, I suppose we need to note whether we’re talking about GPT or GPT-4, or just focus on 4?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technolo ... out-water/
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by nisiprius »

Fallible wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 7:58 pm Now that ChatGPT-4 is out as of March 14 and is reportedly MUCH improved over ChatGPT, I suppose we need to note whether we’re talking about GPT or GPT-4, or just focus on 4?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technolo ... out-water/
"Microsoft announced Tuesday that the Bing AI chatbot, released last month, had been using GPT-4 all along." And it's horrible. See above. Not only did it present factual misinformation about the Jack London story, "Moon-Face," it supported those incorrect statements with alleged sources that did not link to information about that story.

And this is the same chatbot that tried to gaslight someone by insisting that it was 2022 when it was really 2023, and literally threatened one philosophy professor.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Fallible »

nisiprius wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 8:26 pm
Fallible wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 7:58 pm Now that ChatGPT-4 is out as of March 14 and is reportedly MUCH improved over ChatGPT, I suppose we need to note whether we’re talking about GPT or GPT-4, or just focus on 4?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technolo ... out-water/
"Microsoft announced Tuesday that the Bing AI chatbot, released last month, had been using GPT-4 all along." And it's horrible. See above. Not only did it present factual misinformation about the Jack London story, "Moon-Face," it supported those incorrect statements with alleged sources that did not link to information about that story.

And this is the same chatbot that tried to gaslight someone by insisting that it was 2022 when it was really 2023, and literally threatened one philosophy professor.
So why wouldn't OpenAI mention Microsoft's Bing in its March 14 announcement or even earlier? What was gained?

Btw, when re-reading OpenAI's 3/14 announcement, this time I noticed it said GPT-4 "still can miss subtle details (Elvis Presley was not the son of an actor)." Um, that's not a "subtle" detail.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by rob »

German Expat wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 8:35 pm I would never use it for anything important without verifying the information.
You would think BUT..... I have people...
- Using it to write up their annual goals
- Talking points in leadership presentations
- Wiki pages for various things
- Likely for things I have not noticed - I shudder to think

... and I live in a part of IT where people ought to know better.... but it's faster and looks to pass muster on a glance. :oops:

I cannot imagine what this looks like in universities (and yeah I know there are tools to spot it's output but they will fall behind if they have not already).
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by cacophony »

nisiprius wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 5:06 pm
Q: Compare the 86th and 102nd-floor observation levels in the Empire State Building.
...The 86th floor observation level is enclosed, while the 102nd floor observation level is open-air. This means that visitors to the 102nd floor observation level can feel the wind and the sun on their faces, while visitors to the 86th floor observation level are sheltered from the elements...
Exactly the wrong way around. I just checked the Empire State Building to make sure nothing had changed since my last visit. This exact mistake was also made by ChatGPT, which makes me wonder if they are sharing the same knowledge corpus. Once again, it is really hard for me to understand where they could have possibly gotten the information.
I just asked that question to ChatGPT (3.5), Bing Chat, and Bard and all three correctly stated that the 102nd floor was enclosed.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Cruise »

Cruise wrote: Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:57 am A humble haiku, courtesy of ChatGPT:

Frugal investors,
Bogleheads united, wise,
In wealth they will thrive.
And now for the Bing Chatbox version:

Bogleheads unite,
Investing for the long term,
Simple and effective.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Derpalator »

Cruise wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 12:43 am
Cruise wrote: Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:57 am A humble haiku, courtesy of ChatGPT:

Frugal investors,
Bogleheads united, wise,
In wealth they will thrive.
And now for the Bing Chatbox version:

Bogleheads unite,
Investing for the long term,
Simple and effective.
I like the Bing Haiku better. :happy
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Freefun »

Cruise wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 12:43 am
Cruise wrote: Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:57 am A humble haiku, courtesy of ChatGPT:

Frugal investors,
Bogleheads united, wise,
In wealth they will thrive.
And now for the Bing Chatbox version:

Bogleheads unite,
Investing for the long term,
Simple and effective.
Bard version:

Bogleheads invest
In index funds for the long term
And reap the rewards.
Remember when you wanted what you currently have?
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Fallible »

Cruise wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 12:43 am
Cruise wrote: Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:57 am A humble haiku, courtesy of ChatGPT:

Frugal investors,
Bogleheads united, wise,
In wealth they will thrive.
And now for the Bing Chatbox version:

Bogleheads unite,
Investing for the long term,
Simple and effective.
Was the prompt the same for both?

Generally, the more we're learning about the chatbots, it's obvious that the prompts are key to understanding and judging responses. There are even behind-the-scenes "prompt engineers" aiming for the best bot replies:

https://www.businessinsider.com/prompt- ... ned-2023-3

Again, I wonder whether discussion of the chatbots should now identify the chatbot, GPT or GPT-4 (and whatever comes next), and the prompt.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by CommitmentDevice »

rob wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 10:08 pm
German Expat wrote: Thu Dec 29, 2022 8:35 pm I would never use it for anything important without verifying the information.
You would think BUT..... I have people...
- Using it to write up their annual goals
- Talking points in leadership presentations
- Wiki pages for various things
- Likely for things I have not noticed - I shudder to think

... and I live in a part of IT where people ought to know better.... but it's faster and looks to pass muster on a glance. :oops:

I cannot imagine what this looks like in universities (and yeah I know there are tools to spot it's output but they will fall behind if they have not already).
If you blindly rely on ChatGPT's output without reviewing it, you're setting yourself up for failure. However, if you use it as a tool to generate suggestions or ideas, it can be extremely helpful.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Mudpuppy »

Fallible wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 2:11 pm Again, I wonder whether discussion of the chatbots should now identify the chatbot, GPT or GPT-4 (and whatever comes next), and the prompt.
FYI, because I've seen it a couple times in this thread, ChatGPT is using the GPT-3 algorithm family (specifically the GPT-3.5 algorithm), rather than the original GPT algorithm family. So it's not a huge leap to the GPT-4 algorithm family. It's just the next iteration of the algorithm.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Fallible »

Mudpuppy wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 3:26 pm
Fallible wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 2:11 pm Again, I wonder whether discussion of the chatbots should now identify the chatbot, GPT or GPT-4 (and whatever comes next), and the prompt.
FYI, because I've seen it a couple times in this thread, ChatGPT is using the GPT-3 algorithm family (specifically the GPT-3.5 algorithm), rather than the original GPT algorithm family. So it's not a huge leap to the GPT-4 algorithm family. It's just the next iteration of the algorithm.
I thinking about recent reports on GPT-4 such as these examples:

OpenAI announcing GPT-4:
In a casual conversation, the distinction between GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 can be subtle. The difference comes out when the complexity of the task reaches a sufficient threshold—GPT-4 is more reliable, creative, and able to handle much more nuanced instructions than GPT-3.5.
https://openai.com/research/gpt-4

The Atlantic:
GPT-4 is here, and you’ve probably heard a good bit about it already. It’s a smarter, faster, more powerful engine for AI programs such as ChatGPT. It can turn a hand-sketched design into a functional website and help with your taxes. It got a 5 on the AP Art History test. There were already fears about AI coming for white-collar work, disrupting education, and so much else, and there was some healthy skepticism about those fears. So where does a more powerful AI leave us?
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/ ... ns/673396/

Scientific American:
Not only can GPT-4 produce more natural-sounding text and solve problems more accurately than its predecessor. It can also process images in addition to text. But the AI is still vulnerable to some of the same problems that plagued earlier GPT models: displaying bias, overstepping the guardrails intended to prevent it from saying offensive or dangerous things and “hallucinating,” or confidently making up falsehoods not found in its training data.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/arti ... ai-can-do/
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Cruise »

Fallible wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 2:11 pm
Cruise wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 12:43 am
Cruise wrote: Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:57 am A humble haiku, courtesy of ChatGPT:

Frugal investors,
Bogleheads united, wise,
In wealth they will thrive.
And now for the Bing Chatbox version:

Bogleheads unite,
Investing for the long term,
Simple and effective.
Was the prompt the same for both?

Generally, the more we're learning about the chatbots, it's obvious that the prompts are key to understanding and judging responses. There are even behind-the-scenes "prompt engineers" aiming for the best bot replies:

https://www.businessinsider.com/prompt- ... ned-2023-3

Again, I wonder whether discussion of the chatbots should now identify the chatbot, GPT or GPT-4 (and whatever comes next), and the prompt.
Yes, the prompt was identical: Write a haiku about Bogleheads.

FYI, in my limited play with Bing Chatbox, I found it less interesting that ChatGPT: It refused to write a 1000 essay, saying something to the effect that it produces information, not a finished product. It does provide references to look at some source materials. But, so far, boring.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by cacophony »

Cruise wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:32 pm ...

FYI, in my limited play with Bing Chatbox, I found it less interesting that ChatGPT: It refused to write a 1000 essay, saying something to the effect that it produces information, not a finished product. It does provide references to look at some source materials. But, so far, boring.
I think the Bing version has more guard rails and safety measures, and as a result can be more limited. I have seen many examples where ChatGPT 3.5 produces more impressive results than Bing (based on ChatGPT 4.0) and I wonder if that's part of the reason. You might also want to try changing Bing to "Creative" mode.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

I would really like to have three or four scripts written up:

1. Leaving a job.

2. Turning something or someone down graciously.

3. Getting out of some pesky commitment.

4. Justifying a raise or promotion.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Cruise »

Cruise wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 7:32 pm
Fallible wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 2:11 pm
Cruise wrote: Thu Mar 23, 2023 12:43 am
Cruise wrote: Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:57 am A humble haiku, courtesy of ChatGPT:

Frugal investors,
Bogleheads united, wise,
In wealth they will thrive.
And now for the Bing Chatbox version:

Bogleheads unite,
Investing for the long term,
Simple and effective.
Was the prompt the same for both?

Generally, the more we're learning about the chatbots, it's obvious that the prompts are key to understanding and judging responses. There are even behind-the-scenes "prompt engineers" aiming for the best bot replies:

https://www.businessinsider.com/prompt- ... ned-2023-3

Again, I wonder whether discussion of the chatbots should now identify the chatbot, GPT or GPT-4 (and whatever comes next), and the prompt.
Yes, the prompt was identical: Write a haiku about Bogleheads.

FYI, in my limited play with Bing Chatbox, I found it less interesting that ChatGPT: It refused to write a 1000 essay, saying something to the effect that it produces information, not a finished product. It does provide references to look at some source materials. But, so far, boring.
Here is my Bard haiku:

Bogleheads, index
Funds, passive investing
A quiet revolution

As you can see, each of the AI programs shows different reverence to the stated requirements of a Haiku:

It has three lines.
It has five syllables in the first and third lines.
It has seven syllables in the second line.

Rule-bound Winner: ChatGPT
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Cruise »

After my Haiku experiment (see above), comparing ChatGPT, Bing and Bard, I decided to ask Bard which scientists published the first scientific study on "X" (Actually, I was the first author on this study, so I know it was me). Chat GPT and Bing repeatedly gave incorrect answers, even with increasingly specific prompts. Neither could remember my corrections.

I'm stunned and pleased to report that Bard got it right the first time! And gave the full journal citation information. I'm impressed.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by LadyGeek »

Heads up: The moderators are now seeing active member posts which are using ChatGPT to provide investment advice. Some of those posts contain incorrect information.

This is a financial forum. Incorrect information will put your life's savings at risk. Our first priority is to ensure the information is accurate.

If a member is using AI to generate a post and does not disclose that fact, the moderators will take action.

We're working with the site owners on this. Until a path forward is found, we'll do what we can to mitigate the situation.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by gtrplayer »

LadyGeek wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 9:26 pm Heads up: The moderators are now seeing active member posts which are using ChatGPT to provide investment advice. Some of those posts contain incorrect information.

This is a financial forum. Incorrect information will put your life's savings at risk. Our first priority is to ensure the information is accurate.

If a member is using AI to generate a post and does not disclose that fact, the moderators will take action.

We're working with the site owners on this. Until a path forward is found, we'll do what we can to mitigate the situation.
I asked chatgpt how to tell if someone on a message board is using chatgpt and pretending they are not… straight from chatgpt’s mouth -

1. Consistency in tone and language: ChatGPT generates responses that are consistent in tone and language. If the responses you're reading on the message board are consistently similar in tone, phrasing, and vocabulary, it's a sign that the person might be using ChatGPT.

2. Unnatural responses to personal questions: ChatGPT is not capable of experiencing emotions or feelings, so if the person is responding to personal questions with what seems like an inappropriate emotional response, it could be a sign that they're not human.

3. Lack of personal information: ChatGPT does not have a personal life or background, so if the person you're interacting with is not sharing any personal information about themselves or their life, it could be a sign that they're using ChatGPT.

4. Responses that are too perfect: ChatGPT generates responses that are accurate, informative, and grammatically correct. If the responses you're reading are too perfect or sound like they've been written by a machine, it could be a sign that ChatGPT is being used.

5. Asking specific questions about ChatGPT: One way to identify if someone is using ChatGPT is to ask specific questions about the technology. For example, you could ask how they are able to respond so quickly or what their training data consists of. If they avoid answering or provide vague responses, it could be a sign that ChatGPT is being used.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Fallible »

LadyGeek wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 9:26 pm Heads up: The moderators are now seeing active member posts which are using ChatGPT to provide investment advice. Some of those posts contain incorrect information.

This is a financial forum. Incorrect information will put your life's savings at risk. Our first priority is to ensure the information is accurate.

If a member is using AI to generate a post and does not disclose that fact, the moderators will take action.

We're working with the site owners on this. Until a path forward is found, we'll do what we can to mitigate the situation.
Thanks to you all for being on top of this. Here is one of the better articles I've read on the subject, including this:
Today’s detection tool kit
There are various ways researchers have tried to detect AI-generated text. One common method is to use software to analyze different features of the text—for example, how fluently it reads, how frequently certain words appear, or whether there are patterns in punctuation or sentence length.
https://www.technologyreview.com/2022/1 ... ated-text/
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Kevin M »

LadyGeek wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 9:26 pm Heads up: The moderators are now seeing active member posts which are using ChatGPT to provide investment advice. Some of those posts contain incorrect information.

This is a financial forum. Incorrect information will put your life's savings at risk. Our first priority is to ensure the information is accurate.

If a member is using AI to generate a post and does not disclose that fact, the moderators will take action.

We're working with the site owners on this. Until a path forward is found, we'll do what we can to mitigate the situation.
Many, many posts from humans contain incorrect information (including some of mine). Many of my posts are to correct those inaccuracies as best I can, and I expect others to do the same if I post anything inaccurate or incorrect (see my signature).

I will happily continue to call out any inaccuracies I see, regardless of whether or not AI was used as an assistant.

I think my first post about ChatGPT was to point out how horrible it's description of TIPS details was--and by horrible I mean flat out wrong about some very basic facts. I've also posted about how it simply made up stuff that was supposedly in IRS publications (it wasn't), and how it made up a table of contents for an investing textbook it said it had read (which I have).

Any of us who are even slightly involved with ChatGPT should continue to help others understand its very serious limitations in the current incarnation(s).

Kevin
If I make a calculation error, #Cruncher probably will let me know.
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