This is fake news, the Fed meeting is regularly scheduledCloudStrife1990 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:51 pm I heard that there's some rumours emerging that Credit Suisse is on the verge of bankruptcy and that there's an emergency meeting of the Fed on Monday.
Anyone know what the impact this would be on the market?
OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
This article from 10 days ago says that there are no scheduled meetings for October.nalor511 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:03 pmThis is fake news, the Fed meeting is regularly scheduledCloudStrife1990 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:51 pm I heard that there's some rumours emerging that Credit Suisse is on the verge of bankruptcy and that there's an emergency meeting of the Fed on Monday.
Anyone know what the impact this would be on the market?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore ... t-expects/
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Beensabu,Beensabu wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:21 pm Closed Board Meeting on October 3, 2022
https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthe ... closed.htm
As per the web page that you posted, this web page was updated on 9/29/2022.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthe ... gdates.htmBeensabu wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:21 pm Closed Board Meeting on October 3, 2022
https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthe ... closed.htm
Lots of Fed meetings - at least one, sometimes two, and occasionally three per month.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I guess it's not an emergency meeting then, is it?
KlangFool wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:32 pmBeensabu,Beensabu wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:21 pm Closed Board Meeting on October 3, 2022
https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthe ... closed.htm
As per the web page that you posted, this web page was updated on 9/29/2022.
KlangFool
Weathering wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:32 pm https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthe ... gdates.htm
Lots of Fed meetings - at least one, sometimes two, and occasionally three per month.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Yep! guess its nothing!Beensabu wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:49 pm I guess it's not an emergency meeting then, is it?
KlangFool wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:32 pmBeensabu,Beensabu wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:21 pm Closed Board Meeting on October 3, 2022
https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthe ... closed.htm
As per the web page that you posted, this web page was updated on 9/29/2022.
KlangFoolWeathering wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:32 pm https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthe ... gdates.htm
Lots of Fed meetings - at least one, sometimes two, and occasionally three per month.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Yes, it's market timing, and so far the call has been wrong.
But, I give you credit for posting a prediction. It's better than all these other people who talk about their brilliant market timing with no proof.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
No, it is NOT foolish to buy now in a declining market. It is NOT a huge mistake.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 amMaybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?Ed 2 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pmI don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pmI auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.Wanderingwheelz wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:34 pmI don’t do any tricky sort of buying. I just buy in taxable on the last day of the month, knowing dollar cost averaging is a sure ways to neutralize worry over whether stocks are going to go up, or if they’re going to go down over the short term.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:00 pm
I’ve got a 2 week old GTC order in for $178.95 in taxable. At the end of the trading day Friday I was frozen, holding my breath. I’m torn whether GTC orders are the dumbest, or smartest things ever. Dumbest because you might hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger, or smartest, because you hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger (lol). I guess I’ll know this week.
I bought FSKAX late in the day though in a regular market order for my Roth IRA. Tired of all these *games*! (hypocritical mock sigh, back of hand to forehead).
I invest whenever I have money available to invest. For what it's worth, I invested in stock index funds as much as I could (regularly every pay period, and all bonuses) in late 2008 and early 2009 (when the stock market was plunging), and it turned out fine .
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Yeah...but this time is different...just kiddingruralavalon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:15 amNo, it is NOT foolish to buy now in a declining market. It is NOT a huge mistake.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 amMaybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?Ed 2 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pmI don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pmI auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.Wanderingwheelz wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:34 pm
I don’t do any tricky sort of buying. I just buy in taxable on the last day of the month, knowing dollar cost averaging is a sure ways to neutralize worry over whether stocks are going to go up, or if they’re going to go down over the short term.
I invest whenever I have money available to invest. For what it's worth, I invested in stock index funds as much as I could (regularly every pay period, and all bonuses) in late 2008 and early 2009 (when the stock market was plunging), and it turned out fine .
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Someday it will be different. I'm sufficiently sure that it's not today to "stay the course"...goodenyou wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:08 pmYeah...but this time is different...just kiddingruralavalon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:15 amNo, it is NOT foolish to buy now in a declining market. It is NOT a huge mistake.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 am Maybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?
I invest whenever I have money available to invest. For what it's worth, I invested in stock index funds as much as I could (regularly every pay period, and all bonuses) in late 2008 and early 2009 (when the stock market was plunging), and it turned out fine .
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Well, I’m still investing. It will be nice if it works out eventually and I have time (I believe). I’m also saving. My 401K looks like heck but I’m sure that’s true for most of us. I’ll tune out the noise and focus on my work, hobbies, health, friends and family. No point staring into this abyss.goodenyou wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:08 pmYeah...but this time is different...just kiddingruralavalon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:15 amNo, it is NOT foolish to buy now in a declining market. It is NOT a huge mistake.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 amMaybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?Ed 2 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pmI don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pm
I auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.
I invest whenever I have money available to invest. For what it's worth, I invested in stock index funds as much as I could (regularly every pay period, and all bonuses) in late 2008 and early 2009 (when the stock market was plunging), and it turned out fine .
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I don't think anyone here would support the idea of dipping into cash reserves to buy stock while unemployed - regardless of market conditions. The other issue here was market timing.strummer6969 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:49 pmI had a few months of emergency funds. In my case, I ended up needing 1 year in emergency funds.pennywiser wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:53 amIt seems to me that the issue here was not having emergency fund in place, rather than investing in bear market...strummer6969 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:59 am I've learned from personal experience that shoving extra money into a bear market (beyond AA) is a terrible idea. I had a job loss when I did that in 2008 and ended up selling stocks at a loss (double whammy).
Lots of people talk about "dry powder" and other mechanisms to have extra money for "buying opportunities". The problem is nobody has ever been able to consistently identify what is a buying opportunity vs. a good place to lose more.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Recessions are when millionaires are made.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:32 amWell, I’m still investing. It will be nice if it works out eventually and I have time (I believe). I’m also saving. My 401K looks like heck but I’m sure that’s true for most of us. I’ll tune out the noise and focus on my work, hobbies, health, friends and family. No point staring into this abyss.goodenyou wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:08 pmYeah...but this time is different...just kiddingruralavalon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:15 amNo, it is NOT foolish to buy now in a declining market. It is NOT a huge mistake.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 amMaybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?
I invest whenever I have money available to invest. For what it's worth, I invested in stock index funds as much as I could (regularly every pay period, and all bonuses) in late 2008 and early 2009 (when the stock market was plunging), and it turned out fine .
If you stay the course, keep buying, rebalance if/when needed, you will be looking great on the other side.
Good luck.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Thanks. I already have $1.95M (and no debt) but point taken. There’s always room for improvement.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
...and just like that, Mon-Tue the Dow rises more than +1500 pts and the overall markets are up 5.8%. Nobody can know for sure if this is a dead cat bounce or the start of a turnaround, but it should be clear that the old adage of "it's darkest before the dawn" applies to investing. Anyone selling low and "waiting for things to turn around" before buying back in... will miss the quick-hit rises like this.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
But for your case I will amend it.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:23 am Thanks. I already have $1.95M (and no debt) but point taken. There’s always room for improvement.
Recessions are when multi millionaires are made.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
No, I mean the opposite. Plus , I was and am equity investor all the way. Read my comments on the other threads. In my opinion if you less than 60 and your life expectancy in high , you’ve got to invest into equity’s as aggressive as possible and stop watching news if you can’t stand bear markets.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 amMaybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?Ed 2 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pmI don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pmI auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.Wanderingwheelz wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:34 pmI don’t do any tricky sort of buying. I just buy in taxable on the last day of the month, knowing dollar cost averaging is a sure ways to neutralize worry over whether stocks are going to go up, or if they’re going to go down over the short term.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:00 pm
I’ve got a 2 week old GTC order in for $178.95 in taxable. At the end of the trading day Friday I was frozen, holding my breath. I’m torn whether GTC orders are the dumbest, or smartest things ever. Dumbest because you might hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger, or smartest, because you hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger (lol). I guess I’ll know this week.
I bought FSKAX late in the day though in a regular market order for my Roth IRA. Tired of all these *games*! (hypocritical mock sigh, back of hand to forehead).
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I’m mid 50s and there is longevity in my family (most have lived into their late 80s to mid 90s but my case may be different). I’m actually oddly calm in this bear market to the extent that my calmness about it worries me. I read but rarely watch the news.Ed 2 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:33 amNo, I mean the opposite. Plus , I was and am equity investor all the way. Read my comments on the other threads. In my opinion if you less than 60 and your life expectancy in high , you’ve got to invest into equity’s as aggressive as possible and stop watching news if you can’t stand bear markets.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 amMaybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?Ed 2 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pmI don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pmI auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.Wanderingwheelz wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:34 pm
I don’t do any tricky sort of buying. I just buy in taxable on the last day of the month, knowing dollar cost averaging is a sure ways to neutralize worry over whether stocks are going to go up, or if they’re going to go down over the short term.
I’ve gone relatively big into equities (by my standards - not by everybody’s) into this bear, while being traditionally bond heavy. I could go in much bigger in since I also have savings but I think it will last a while so I’m DCAing. My total new investment amount per month is around $14k now, across accounts, around 60 percent equities (AA target is 30/70 from 20/80 equity/fixed).
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Yeah, I guess I am influenced by my relative success in continuing to buy equities every month after the mortgage banking crisis in 2007. I bought when the market kept going down and I bought as it came up. I am pretty sure I did not rebalance back then and had no IPS other than knowing I needed to diversify.EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:18 amRecessions are when millionaires are made.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:32 amWell, I’m still investing. It will be nice if it works out eventually and I have time (I believe). I’m also saving. My 401K looks like heck but I’m sure that’s true for most of us. I’ll tune out the noise and focus on my work, hobbies, health, friends and family. No point staring into this abyss.goodenyou wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:08 pmYeah...but this time is different...just kiddingruralavalon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:15 amNo, it is NOT foolish to buy now in a declining market. It is NOT a huge mistake.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 am
Maybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?
I invest whenever I have money available to invest. For what it's worth, I invested in stock index funds as much as I could (regularly every pay period, and all bonuses) in late 2008 and early 2009 (when the stock market was plunging), and it turned out fine .
If you stay the course, keep buying, rebalance if/when needed, you will be looking great on the other side.
Good luck.
After all the gains post 2007 I read this forum and redid things into an actual investor policy statement.
No idea if it will work well this time but I am HODL 75/25 as the kids say.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
This strategy has worked in every previous recession. I suspect it will work in this recession as well. I could be wrong but I doubt it.ronno2018 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:11 pmYeah, I guess I am influenced by my relative success in continuing to buy equities every month after the mortgage banking crisis in 2007. I bought when the market kept going down and I bought as it came up. I am pretty sure I did not rebalance back then and had no IPS other than knowing I needed to diversify.EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:18 amRecessions are when millionaires are made.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:32 amWell, I’m still investing. It will be nice if it works out eventually and I have time (I believe). I’m also saving. My 401K looks like heck but I’m sure that’s true for most of us. I’ll tune out the noise and focus on my work, hobbies, health, friends and family. No point staring into this abyss.goodenyou wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:08 pmYeah...but this time is different...just kiddingruralavalon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:15 am
No, it is NOT foolish to buy now in a declining market. It is NOT a huge mistake.
I invest whenever I have money available to invest. For what it's worth, I invested in stock index funds as much as I could (regularly every pay period, and all bonuses) in late 2008 and early 2009 (when the stock market was plunging), and it turned out fine .
If you stay the course, keep buying, rebalance if/when needed, you will be looking great on the other side.
Good luck.
After all the gains post 2007 I read this forum and redid things into an actual investor policy statement.
No idea if it will work well this time but I am HODL 75/25 as the kids say.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
- William Million
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I'm also buying into the bear.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I'm fully invested 100% of the time. I used to play around like I was Jesse Livermore but in the end it was a fools errand.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Just a question for those buying equity positions into what may be a bear market or recession. Will you keep buying if it lasts 16 years? Take for example the period between 1929-1945 or 1962-1981.
Is your IPS and emergency fund arranged to adjust for a very long recession and recovery? Almost no one left now who lived through those years but reading history of those times I know it would have been hard to keep buying stocks. Smart but difficult
Is your IPS and emergency fund arranged to adjust for a very long recession and recovery? Almost no one left now who lived through those years but reading history of those times I know it would have been hard to keep buying stocks. Smart but difficult
Last edited by rivendell on Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I'm about 20 years away from retirement, so I probably will keep investing.rivendell wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:37 am Just a question for those buying equity positions into what may be a bear market or recession. Will you keep buying if it lasts 16 years? Take for example the period between 1929-1945.
Is your IPS and emergency fund arranged to adjust for a very long recession and recovery? Almost no one left now who lived through those years but reading history of those times I know it would have been hard to keep buying stocks. Smart but difficult
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
This isn't 1929, unemployment is in the 3% range back then it was 25%. Wages are going up and inflation is rampant, back then it was a deflationary spiral. Instead think about 1968-82. 15 years would be ideal, imagine retiring with a solid amount of stocks and bonds in 1982? 18 years of growing wealth to follow plus the value of your home keeps going up. Retiring after that bad stretch would leave you the enviable problem of figuring out how to spend your millions, which many baby boomers are still struggling with today.C4NT wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:08 amI'm about 20 years away from retirement, so I probably will keep investing.rivendell wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:37 am Just a question for those buying equity positions into what may be a bear market or recession. Will you keep buying if it lasts 16 years? Take for example the period between 1929-1945.
Is your IPS and emergency fund arranged to adjust for a very long recession and recovery? Almost no one left now who lived through those years but reading history of those times I know it would have been hard to keep buying stocks. Smart but difficult
But one thing is very clear, bear markets are usually very short. The last three were brief, and 2020 was positively gone in a blink of an eye. Average is 289 days and we happen to be 288 days into the year today. For that reason, while your scenario is possible, I think it rather unlikely. Odds are decent that all time highs will be seen in a year or two at the most.
Last edited by z3r0c00l on Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
- AnnetteLouisan
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Well, I’ll bite I guess. I’m nibbling into the bear. Only using money that I believe I can afford and won’t need for 10 or more years - mostly from salary and my 20+ year EF (yep, more than KlangF). I don’t think this will last for 16 years. I’ve already been through hard times (60s, 70s and 80s) and I think the market is oversold and a certain amount of hysteria is out there. I don’t intend to keep buying at the same pace for 16 years because I only have a few more years of accumulating left (probably 2-5, ten max). I have a lot in HYSAs that I am trying to get invested at good prices and to bump up my historically risk averse AA to 30/70 from 20/80. I also live very low to the ground with no debt, no family obligations, and way under my means. I am also continuing to save and buying treasuries. That’s why I have a little extra to invest now.rivendell wrote: ↑Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:37 am Just a question for those buying equity positions into what may be a bear market or recession. Will you keep buying if it lasts 16 years? Take for example the period between 1929-1945.
Is your IPS and emergency fund arranged to adjust for a very long recession and recovery? Almost no one left now who lived through those years but reading history of those times I know it would have been hard to keep buying stocks. Smart but difficult
All my family members made their money buying low in bad times, so I’m continuing that tradition. Look out for opportunities in this time of great change. People will be selling more than just stocks.
Could I be very wrong? Yes. That’s why I’m nibbling into the bear now, it could go lower, I get that. But most of my life I didn’t take advantage of my opportunity to be in the markets and I’m making up for that a little now. Also I prefer to buy low and the market seems low now. I was more worried in 2021 when stock prices seemed overheated. Hey, this pullback at least means markets are working.
The whole point of the Boglehead philosophy is to keep your cool and keep investing steadily at times like these, not getting too caught up in the moment. I’ve learned a lot from all of you and developed some sangfroid, or discovered nerves of steel I didn’t know I had.
Time will tell if it was the right decision. If not, there’s pension, social security and rents.
Last edited by AnnetteLouisan on Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:47 am, edited 14 times in total.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
The nice thing is because bonds have cratered I don't need to rebalance as long as I keep buying equities twice a month in my 401K.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
So is this is it? Is the bottom in place now? Today inflation ticked lower than last month and S&P 500 takes off like a rocket, up 4.7%, Nasdaq up 6.2%. I didn't think it would be this easy to slow down the inflation. I am thinking that interest rates are not really that high for 7.7% inflation and employment is still very strong. But the as long as inflation doesn't go higher (than 7.7% YoY) again next month I guess we should be out of the woods. Opinions?
Last edited by pennywiser on Thu Nov 10, 2022 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Inflation data is always past looking. Fed raised higher, quicker, than previously. We've still not necessarily seen the ramifications of what they've done. Will they continue? Are markets guessing correctly? Who knows
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
No posts on this once since November, so thought I'd look back to see where exactly things 'bottomed out', as of today. OP declared the bottom on September 3rd, and will reference VTI as a stand-in for the markets.
Date.............VTI price
9/3........ .....194.16
9/17.............192.10
9/23.............182.64
9/30.............177.89
10/12............177.72
4/19/2023......206.10
Was only about 5 weeks off of where the (so far) bottom actually hit --- not too terrible in comparison with how wrong many market-timing efforts have gone.
-rw
Date.............VTI price
9/3........ .....194.16
9/17.............192.10
9/23.............182.64
9/30.............177.89
10/12............177.72
4/19/2023......206.10
Was only about 5 weeks off of where the (so far) bottom actually hit --- not too terrible in comparison with how wrong many market-timing efforts have gone.
-rw
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Off by 5 weeks and 8.5%.rakish_weasel wrote: ↑Thu Apr 20, 2023 10:47 am No posts on this once since November, so thought I'd look back to see where exactly things 'bottomed out', as of today. OP declared the bottom on September 3rd, and will reference VTI as a stand-in for the markets.
Date.............VTI price
9/3........ .....194.16
9/17.............192.10
9/23.............182.64
9/30.............177.89
10/12............177.72
4/19/2023......206.10
Was only about 5 weeks off of where the (so far) bottom actually hit --- not too terrible in comparison with how wrong many market-timing efforts have gone.
-rw
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
For you, an Asset Allocation Target of 30% stocks/70% bonds might just be the ticket. Over time, it should still be less volatile than a 100% bond portfolio and get you extra return.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:52 amI’m mid 50s and there is longevity in my family (most have lived into their late 80s to mid 90s but my case may be different). I’m actually oddly calm in this bear market to the extent that my calmness about it worries me. I read but rarely watch the news.Ed 2 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:33 amNo, I mean the opposite. Plus , I was and am equity investor all the way. Read my comments on the other threads. In my opinion if you less than 60 and your life expectancy in high , you’ve got to invest into equity’s as aggressive as possible and stop watching news if you can’t stand bear markets.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 amMaybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?Ed 2 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pmI don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pm
I auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.
I’ve gone relatively big into equities (by my standards - not by everybody’s) into this bear, while being traditionally bond heavy. I could go in much bigger in since I also have savings but I think it will last a while so I’m DCAing. My total new investment amount per month is around $14k now, across accounts, around 60 percent equities (AA target is 30/70 from 20/80 equity/fixed).
Weird, but I was very conservative as a young investor but in those days you could get an easy 6% from a Certificate of Deposit. One of my first purchases with my new brokerage account in late 1988 or early 1989 were US Treasury Zero Coupon Bonds which had an 8% interest rate. By the time I was 40, I was pretty much pedal to the metal with over 90% of my portfolio in stocks. In early 2000, I went to 80% stocks and worked it down to about 70/30 where I stayed until the 2008/2009 financial crisis hit. Now at age 63, I have about 63% in stocks.
So yes, I know what it is like to be very conservative but as I turned more aggressive, I had the good fortune of being in one of the great bull markets of all time, a bull market in stocks and a bull market in bonds. I saw US Treasury yields drop from 14% to nearly zero. Others who started their investing career at a different time won't have the same experience of having gale force winds at your back. I bought my first mutual fund in July 1984, Twentieth Century Select, at almost the precise time that a historic bull market was just beginning. No wonder why I tend to be bullish.
I think you will be very pleased with a 30/70 portfolio, it is still very conservative.
A fool and his money are good for business.