OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Have a question about your personal investments? No matter how simple or complex, you can ask it here.
EnjoyIt
Posts: 8244
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:06 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by EnjoyIt »

rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:06 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:03 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:33 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:12 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:07 pm

In 2021 when Powell was talking soft landing he had some chance of success. After the Russia/Ukraine war kicked off…not so much.

The Fed did get a lot more aggressive after that but with diesel prices up there was no hope of a soft landing after that.
Powell says there will be more rate hikes. I would assume those rate hikes are already priced in. Let's hope we don't need more unexpected rate hikes after this batch of expected rate hikes are implemented.
He said he's going to 4.6%. That doesn't seem priced in yet.
Are you sure? You know 4.6%. I know 4.6%. Everyone knows 4.6% Doesn't that mean it is priced in?
I don't see a 10 year treasury bond anywhere remotely near 5%. That's what I would expect with a 4.6% Fed Funds rate. Markets don't automatically reprice.
Can't argue with that.

But what about equities? Equities reprice much quicker. Is that interest rate already priced into equities? Maybe not yet, maybe we are getting there and equities have more to drop. Or, maybe the current price is an over reaction.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
Marseille07
Posts: 16054
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Marseille07 »

rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:06 pm I don't see a 10 year treasury bond anywhere remotely near 5%. That's what I would expect with a 4.6% Fed Funds rate. Markets don't automatically reprice.
Markets absolutely reprice. The messaging is that they're fine to collect 3.8% even though the FFR might hit 4.6%. They are fully aware of the 4.6% news, I guarantee you that.
carloslando
Posts: 191
Joined: Sun Aug 23, 2020 3:28 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by carloslando »

Earnings season is just starting and the results followed by the forecasts will I think determine the real bottom. For us to get to reasonable P/Es, the Es need to be the near future numbers, not the rich ones over the last year or two.
Comparison is the killer of all joy.
rockstar
Posts: 6308
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:51 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by rockstar »

EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:17 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:06 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:03 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:33 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:12 pm

Powell says there will be more rate hikes. I would assume those rate hikes are already priced in. Let's hope we don't need more unexpected rate hikes after this batch of expected rate hikes are implemented.
He said he's going to 4.6%. That doesn't seem priced in yet.
Are you sure? You know 4.6%. I know 4.6%. Everyone knows 4.6% Doesn't that mean it is priced in?
I don't see a 10 year treasury bond anywhere remotely near 5%. That's what I would expect with a 4.6% Fed Funds rate. Markets don't automatically reprice.
Can't argue with that.

But what about equities? Equities reprice much quicker. Is that interest rate already priced into equities? Maybe not yet, maybe we are getting there and equities have more to drop. Or, maybe the current price is an over reaction.
The 10 year is below 4%, so I doubt it. I don't think the market participants know what's going to happen with inflation this high, so the market should bounce around until actual data comes out. I think, it goes lower with bad earnings coming out this quarter.

It's hard to reprice correctly when there are so many unknowns.
gougou
Posts: 1311
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:42 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by gougou »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:20 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:06 pm I don't see a 10 year treasury bond anywhere remotely near 5%. That's what I would expect with a 4.6% Fed Funds rate. Markets don't automatically reprice.
Markets absolutely reprice. The messaging is that they're fine to collect 3.8% even though the FFR might hit 4.6%. They are fully aware of the 4.6% news, I guarantee you that.
The market doesn’t believe what Powell said. When Powell actually does what he says, the market will then reprice. This has happened multiple times this year.

Of course there’s a chance Powell will eat his words. Market thinks that’s likely, and that’s why 10-year is at 3.8%.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 15381
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:44 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by JoeRetire »

Weathering wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:59 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:49 pm Nice, everything I own is up bigly today, even VXUS :sharebeer Anyone know what happened? I love hearing the narratives :)
Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
And just a day later, the world's views changed...

That ol' world can sure be fickle at times. :happy
This isn't just my wallet. It's an organizer, a memory and an old friend.
strummer6969
Posts: 978
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:59 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by strummer6969 »

rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:55 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:17 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:06 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:03 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:33 pm

He said he's going to 4.6%. That doesn't seem priced in yet.
Are you sure? You know 4.6%. I know 4.6%. Everyone knows 4.6% Doesn't that mean it is priced in?
I don't see a 10 year treasury bond anywhere remotely near 5%. That's what I would expect with a 4.6% Fed Funds rate. Markets don't automatically reprice.
Can't argue with that.

But what about equities? Equities reprice much quicker. Is that interest rate already priced into equities? Maybe not yet, maybe we are getting there and equities have more to drop. Or, maybe the current price is an over reaction.
The 10 year is below 4%, so I doubt it. I don't think the market participants know what's going to happen with inflation this high, so the market should bounce around until actual data comes out. I think, it goes lower with bad earnings coming out this quarter.

It's hard to reprice correctly when there are so many unknowns.
A lot of BHs are buying the dip. I guess someone has to catch the falling knives.

What's the old adage, "don't fight the fed?" I'm not buying the dip and playing a game of chicken. Fed tightening into a bad earnings quarter... no thanks.
User avatar
DeliberateDonkey
Posts: 251
Joined: Fri Dec 24, 2021 9:41 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by DeliberateDonkey »

rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:55 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:17 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:06 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:03 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:33 pm

He said he's going to 4.6%. That doesn't seem priced in yet.
Are you sure? You know 4.6%. I know 4.6%. Everyone knows 4.6% Doesn't that mean it is priced in?
I don't see a 10 year treasury bond anywhere remotely near 5%. That's what I would expect with a 4.6% Fed Funds rate. Markets don't automatically reprice.
Can't argue with that.

But what about equities? Equities reprice much quicker. Is that interest rate already priced into equities? Maybe not yet, maybe we are getting there and equities have more to drop. Or, maybe the current price is an over reaction.
The 10 year is below 4%, so I doubt it. I don't think the market participants know what's going to happen with inflation this high, so the market should bounce around until actual data comes out. I think, it goes lower with bad earnings coming out this quarter.

It's hard to reprice correctly when there are so many unknowns.
What if bad news is good news? I think it still depends on why earnings are down, but if it's simply a case of demand destruction, isn't that exactly what the Fed wants?
strummer6969
Posts: 978
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:59 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by strummer6969 »

DeliberateDonkey wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:47 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:55 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:17 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:06 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:03 pm

Are you sure? You know 4.6%. I know 4.6%. Everyone knows 4.6% Doesn't that mean it is priced in?
I don't see a 10 year treasury bond anywhere remotely near 5%. That's what I would expect with a 4.6% Fed Funds rate. Markets don't automatically reprice.
Can't argue with that.

But what about equities? Equities reprice much quicker. Is that interest rate already priced into equities? Maybe not yet, maybe we are getting there and equities have more to drop. Or, maybe the current price is an over reaction.
The 10 year is below 4%, so I doubt it. I don't think the market participants know what's going to happen with inflation this high, so the market should bounce around until actual data comes out. I think, it goes lower with bad earnings coming out this quarter.

It's hard to reprice correctly when there are so many unknowns.
What if bad news is good news? I think it still depends on why earnings are down, but if it's simply a case of demand destruction, isn't that exactly what the Fed wants?
Costs are also up, reducing profit margins.
EnjoyIt
Posts: 8244
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:06 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by EnjoyIt »

strummer6969 wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:31 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:55 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:17 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:06 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:03 pm

Are you sure? You know 4.6%. I know 4.6%. Everyone knows 4.6% Doesn't that mean it is priced in?
I don't see a 10 year treasury bond anywhere remotely near 5%. That's what I would expect with a 4.6% Fed Funds rate. Markets don't automatically reprice.
Can't argue with that.

But what about equities? Equities reprice much quicker. Is that interest rate already priced into equities? Maybe not yet, maybe we are getting there and equities have more to drop. Or, maybe the current price is an over reaction.
The 10 year is below 4%, so I doubt it. I don't think the market participants know what's going to happen with inflation this high, so the market should bounce around until actual data comes out. I think, it goes lower with bad earnings coming out this quarter.

It's hard to reprice correctly when there are so many unknowns.
A lot of BHs are buying the dip. I guess someone has to catch the falling knives.

What's the old adage, "don't fight the fed?" I'm not buying the dip and playing a game of chicken. Fed tightening into a bad earnings quarter... no thanks.
I suck at market timing. I have cash to invest once a quarter. When I get cash I invest it. If I miss the bottom by 5% or even 10%, it won’t be a huge deal a few years from now. But if I wait for further market declines and the market goes up and keeps going up I may be stuck sitting on cash that never gets invested.

Plenty of people posting this exact same thing in early 2020.

The only solution I can think of is to not fight the fed, not fight my emotions, not think I actually know something and appreciate I can’t predict the future. I buy when I have cash to buy.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
strummer6969
Posts: 978
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:59 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by strummer6969 »

EnjoyIt wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 1:05 am
strummer6969 wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:31 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:55 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:17 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:06 pm

I don't see a 10 year treasury bond anywhere remotely near 5%. That's what I would expect with a 4.6% Fed Funds rate. Markets don't automatically reprice.
Can't argue with that.

But what about equities? Equities reprice much quicker. Is that interest rate already priced into equities? Maybe not yet, maybe we are getting there and equities have more to drop. Or, maybe the current price is an over reaction.
The 10 year is below 4%, so I doubt it. I don't think the market participants know what's going to happen with inflation this high, so the market should bounce around until actual data comes out. I think, it goes lower with bad earnings coming out this quarter.

It's hard to reprice correctly when there are so many unknowns.
A lot of BHs are buying the dip. I guess someone has to catch the falling knives.

What's the old adage, "don't fight the fed?" I'm not buying the dip and playing a game of chicken. Fed tightening into a bad earnings quarter... no thanks.
I suck at market timing. I have cash to invest once a quarter. When I get cash I invest it. If I miss the bottom by 5% or even 10%, it won’t be a huge deal a few years from now. But if I wait for further market declines and the market goes up and keeps going up I may be stuck sitting on cash that never gets invested.

Plenty of people posting this exact same thing in early 2020.

The only solution I can think of is to not fight the fed, not fight my emotions, not think I actually know something and appreciate I can’t predict the future. I buy when I have cash to buy.
It's situational. I was thinking about something a retiree said here a few days ago. His plan was to keep buying VTSAX "on sale" for his heirs until his cash runs out. Some people don't know when to quit. After all the transparency the Fed has provided this year, if some people get caught on the wrong side of things, it's due to their own greed. With as much national debt we have, there's probably little appetite for bailouts this time around. We're bowling without the bumper rails.
rockstar
Posts: 6308
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:51 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by rockstar »

strummer6969 wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:31 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:55 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:17 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:06 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:03 pm

Are you sure? You know 4.6%. I know 4.6%. Everyone knows 4.6% Doesn't that mean it is priced in?
I don't see a 10 year treasury bond anywhere remotely near 5%. That's what I would expect with a 4.6% Fed Funds rate. Markets don't automatically reprice.
Can't argue with that.

But what about equities? Equities reprice much quicker. Is that interest rate already priced into equities? Maybe not yet, maybe we are getting there and equities have more to drop. Or, maybe the current price is an over reaction.
The 10 year is below 4%, so I doubt it. I don't think the market participants know what's going to happen with inflation this high, so the market should bounce around until actual data comes out. I think, it goes lower with bad earnings coming out this quarter.

It's hard to reprice correctly when there are so many unknowns.
A lot of BHs are buying the dip. I guess someone has to catch the falling knives.

What's the old adage, "don't fight the fed?" I'm not buying the dip and playing a game of chicken. Fed tightening into a bad earnings quarter... no thanks.
Earnings should start to get bad. There's only so much credit card debt folks are going to take on before reducing their spending on nonessentials. I don't think we've seen the earnings impact of high inflation yet. We should see it soon.
User avatar
ruralavalon
Posts: 26297
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 9:29 am
Location: Illinois

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by ruralavalon »

gougou wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:20 pm Chart looks horrible. Abandon ship :shock:
We need a sarcasm emoji.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
strummer6969
Posts: 978
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:59 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by strummer6969 »

rockstar wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:29 am
strummer6969 wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:31 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:55 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:17 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:06 pm

I don't see a 10 year treasury bond anywhere remotely near 5%. That's what I would expect with a 4.6% Fed Funds rate. Markets don't automatically reprice.
Can't argue with that.

But what about equities? Equities reprice much quicker. Is that interest rate already priced into equities? Maybe not yet, maybe we are getting there and equities have more to drop. Or, maybe the current price is an over reaction.
The 10 year is below 4%, so I doubt it. I don't think the market participants know what's going to happen with inflation this high, so the market should bounce around until actual data comes out. I think, it goes lower with bad earnings coming out this quarter.

It's hard to reprice correctly when there are so many unknowns.
A lot of BHs are buying the dip. I guess someone has to catch the falling knives.

What's the old adage, "don't fight the fed?" I'm not buying the dip and playing a game of chicken. Fed tightening into a bad earnings quarter... no thanks.
Earnings should start to get bad. There's only so much credit card debt folks are going to take on before reducing their spending on nonessentials. I don't think we've seen the earnings impact of high inflation yet. We should see it soon.
Fixed income and some bonds are looking decent, to be honest.
Last edited by strummer6969 on Fri Sep 30, 2022 2:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
WillRetire
Posts: 775
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2017 10:01 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by WillRetire »

ronno2018 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:38 pm
Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:14 pm I'm calling the bottom NOW ... S&P up >1% today

I just now poured a ton of money into the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend Index ...

... more than one thousand dollars!! (said in Dr. Evil voice) :mrgreen:
Good job, I am (dr.) evil too and have so far had my 401k buy an immense amount of FXAIX since I publicly called the bottom (well ok $1600 worth).

:sharebeer
Ha Ha! This thread reminds me of the reddit WSB threads with the rockets-to-the-moon immediately followed by the "I-lost-everything" celebratory posts! Ah well, for a few minutes I feel like a genius for not buying at the so-called bottom.

Now if you'll excuse me, I shall resume watching my portfolio decline steadily whilst I refrain from any market timing activities.
User avatar
galawdawg
Posts: 5231
Joined: Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:59 am
Location: Georgia

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by galawdawg »

The OP's "prediction" is a great example of why Jack often said,
Nobody knows nothing!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0gQiz0pCyI
OldSport
Posts: 1272
Joined: Tue Jul 25, 2017 7:01 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by OldSport »

While marking timing is next to impossible, what may be notable is that despite a nearly 25% broad market loss from the recent peak, we are still 9% higher than the pre-pandemic peak!

Additionally there was a lot of boost in 2017- just before pandemic. If I just carry over a "normal" return from just before the 2017 boost, I'm getting a 2022 valuation just below the pre-pandemic peak- just like 2% lower.
Bogle-007
Posts: 466
Joined: Mon Jun 20, 2016 5:49 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Bogle-007 »

VTI just breached 179.xx!!!
😬
Californiastate
Posts: 1516
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:52 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Californiastate »

VTI has closed below 181. We're going to need some bad economic news to stop the trend. Next floor 171. It might get bumpy.
Wanderingwheelz
Posts: 3125
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:52 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Wanderingwheelz »

I bought VTI on the close.

Prepare for another leg down. :)
Being wrong compounds forever.
Topic Author
ronno2018
Posts: 567
Joined: Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:31 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by ronno2018 »

Well for the first time I think my targeted allocation is spot on!

https://postimg.cc/jWTTnCJn

Now I pray to the market gods to turn this market up again! :sharebeer
ExTx
Posts: 70
Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:40 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by ExTx »

ruralavalon wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:44 pm
ronno2018 wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:32 pm Just switched my measly $1600 a month 401K contribution from VBTLX (total bond) to FXAIX (large stock blend).

Also just reached my bond holdings goal (more or less). Almost 59.5yo. Decisions ahead -- bad idea? Is this market timing? :sharebeer
Why not increase your contributions to the annual employee maximum of $26k?
Kinda arrogant not knowing anything about him. But that's common here.
travsmill
Posts: 63
Joined: Mon Jan 25, 2021 4:44 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by travsmill »

Was everyone this certain about a market downturn in 2008?
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by nigel_ht »

travsmill wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:08 pm Was everyone this certain about a market downturn in 2008?
Well…probably by the time Lehman Brothers went bankrupt…lol
trirunner
Posts: 216
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 3:14 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by trirunner »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 8:58 am
travsmill wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 11:08 pm Was everyone this certain about a market downturn in 2008?
Well…probably by the time Lehman Brothers went bankrupt…lol
.. and S&P fall almost 40% after that....lol
User avatar
ruralavalon
Posts: 26297
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 9:29 am
Location: Illinois

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by ruralavalon »

ExTx wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:44 pm
ruralavalon wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:44 pm
ronno2018 wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:32 pm Just switched my measly $1600 a month 401K contribution from VBTLX (total bond) to FXAIX (large stock blend).

Also just reached my bond holdings goal (more or less). Almost 59.5yo. Decisions ahead -- bad idea? Is this market timing? :sharebeer
Why not increase your contributions to the annual employee maximum of $26k?
Kinda arrogant not knowing anything about him. But that's common here.
Establishing a high level of contributions can be the most important investing decision an investor can make, as important or even more important than asset allocation. link.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
User avatar
AnnetteLouisan
Posts: 7239
Joined: Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:16 pm
Location: New York, NY

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

Wanderingwheelz wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:21 pm I bought VTI on the close.

Prepare for another leg down. :)
I’ve got a 2 week old GTC order in for $178.95 in taxable. At the end of the trading day Friday I was frozen, holding my breath. I’m torn whether GTC orders are the dumbest, or smartest things ever. Dumbest because you might hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger, or smartest, because you hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger (lol). I guess I’ll know this week.

I bought FSKAX late in the day though in a regular market order for my Roth IRA. Tired of all these *games*! (hypocritical mock sigh, back of hand to forehead).
Wanderingwheelz
Posts: 3125
Joined: Mon Mar 04, 2019 8:52 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Wanderingwheelz »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:00 pm
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:21 pm I bought VTI on the close.

Prepare for another leg down. :)
I’ve got a 2 week old GTC order in for $178.95 in taxable. At the end of the trading day Friday I was frozen, holding my breath. I’m torn whether GTC orders are the dumbest, or smartest things ever. Dumbest because you might hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger, or smartest, because you hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger (lol). I guess I’ll know this week.

I bought FSKAX late in the day though in a regular market order for my Roth IRA. Tired of all these *games*! (hypocritical mock sigh, back of hand to forehead).
I don’t do any tricky sort of buying. I just buy in taxable on the last day of the month, knowing dollar cost averaging is a sure ways to neutralize worry over whether stocks are going to go up, or if they’re going to go down over the short term.
Being wrong compounds forever.
Robot Monster
Posts: 4215
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Robot Monster »

In an interview on Friday, Jeremy Siegel said, "If you're a long-term investor I would absolutely buy now. I think these are absolutely great long term values." See: 1:34-2:10
YouTube link
Ed 2
Posts: 2692
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:34 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Ed 2 »

Robot Monster wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:22 pm In an interview on Friday, Jeremy Siegel said, "If you're a long-term investor I would absolutely buy now. I think these are absolutely great long term values." See: 1:34-2:10
YouTube link
I am long time fan of Jeremy Siegel. He was right many times . He is right right now . If you keep buying on this levels you absolutely will be rewarded not now , not tomorrow but long term I bet you will. CNBC doesn’t have many real investors invited on their show , mostly short term traders . This one of this videos I would watch over and over again .
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by nigel_ht »

Ed 2 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:59 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:22 pm In an interview on Friday, Jeremy Siegel said, "If you're a long-term investor I would absolutely buy now. I think these are absolutely great long term values." See: 1:34-2:10
YouTube link
I am long time fan of Jeremy Siegel. He was right many times . He is right right now . If you keep buying on this levels you absolutely will be rewarded not now , not tomorrow but long term I bet you will. CNBC doesn’t have many real investors invited on their show , mostly short term traders . This one of this videos I would watch over and over again .
Yah, but like most BHs, other than my biweekly DCA, I'm as in the market as intended in my IPS...

If I had a windfall I'd probably...still DCA it in...lol. From here the market can easily go up or down based on current events...
RyeBourbon
Posts: 1207
Joined: Tue Sep 01, 2020 12:20 pm
Location: Delaware/Philly

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by RyeBourbon »

Robot Monster wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:22 pm In an interview on Friday, Jeremy Siegel said, "If you're a long-term investor I would absolutely buy now. I think these are absolutely great long term values." See: 1:34-2:10
YouTube link
Given a long enough timeline, equities are always a great long term value.
Retired June 2023. AA = 55/35/10
Ed 2
Posts: 2692
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:34 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Ed 2 »

nigel_ht wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 6:09 pm
Ed 2 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 5:59 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 3:22 pm In an interview on Friday, Jeremy Siegel said, "If you're a long-term investor I would absolutely buy now. I think these are absolutely great long term values." See: 1:34-2:10
YouTube link
I am long time fan of Jeremy Siegel. He was right many times . He is right right now . If you keep buying on this levels you absolutely will be rewarded not now , not tomorrow but long term I bet you will. CNBC doesn’t have many real investors invited on their show , mostly short term traders . This one of this videos I would watch over and over again .
Yah, but like most BHs, other than my biweekly DCA, I'm as in the market as intended in my IPS...

If I had a windfall I'd probably...still DCA it in...lol. From here the market can easily go up or down based on current events...
You buy at lower prices via DCA biweekly or ones a week , doesn’t matter. Now, I do DCA and same time during bull markets I prefer to build extra cash just to prepare for next crash . There’s no but’s . I for example built nice cash money fund between 2020 and 2021 , so I put extra cash everyday now. Whole September I was buying basically daily VT and ITOT. I still have that cash that I intend to spend during this bear until that account goes to zero. Call it market timing, yes it is . Most of us BH do market timing , look at the daily comments in the forum . Purely market timing. ;)
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
User avatar
AnnetteLouisan
Posts: 7239
Joined: Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:16 pm
Location: New York, NY

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

Wanderingwheelz wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:34 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:00 pm
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:21 pm I bought VTI on the close.

Prepare for another leg down. :)
I’ve got a 2 week old GTC order in for $178.95 in taxable. At the end of the trading day Friday I was frozen, holding my breath. I’m torn whether GTC orders are the dumbest, or smartest things ever. Dumbest because you might hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger, or smartest, because you hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger (lol). I guess I’ll know this week.

I bought FSKAX late in the day though in a regular market order for my Roth IRA. Tired of all these *games*! (hypocritical mock sigh, back of hand to forehead).
I don’t do any tricky sort of buying. I just buy in taxable on the last day of the month, knowing dollar cost averaging is a sure ways to neutralize worry over whether stocks are going to go up, or if they’re going to go down over the short term.
I auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.
Ed 2
Posts: 2692
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:34 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Ed 2 »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pm
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:34 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:00 pm
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:21 pm I bought VTI on the close.

Prepare for another leg down. :)
I’ve got a 2 week old GTC order in for $178.95 in taxable. At the end of the trading day Friday I was frozen, holding my breath. I’m torn whether GTC orders are the dumbest, or smartest things ever. Dumbest because you might hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger, or smartest, because you hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger (lol). I guess I’ll know this week.

I bought FSKAX late in the day though in a regular market order for my Roth IRA. Tired of all these *games*! (hypocritical mock sigh, back of hand to forehead).
I don’t do any tricky sort of buying. I just buy in taxable on the last day of the month, knowing dollar cost averaging is a sure ways to neutralize worry over whether stocks are going to go up, or if they’re going to go down over the short term.
I auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.
I don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
User avatar
AnnetteLouisan
Posts: 7239
Joined: Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:16 pm
Location: New York, NY

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

Ed 2 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pm
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:34 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:00 pm
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:21 pm I bought VTI on the close.

Prepare for another leg down. :)
I’ve got a 2 week old GTC order in for $178.95 in taxable. At the end of the trading day Friday I was frozen, holding my breath. I’m torn whether GTC orders are the dumbest, or smartest things ever. Dumbest because you might hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger, or smartest, because you hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger (lol). I guess I’ll know this week.

I bought FSKAX late in the day though in a regular market order for my Roth IRA. Tired of all these *games*! (hypocritical mock sigh, back of hand to forehead).
I don’t do any tricky sort of buying. I just buy in taxable on the last day of the month, knowing dollar cost averaging is a sure ways to neutralize worry over whether stocks are going to go up, or if they’re going to go down over the short term.
I auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.
I don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!
I’m in my 50s. Oh I save more than $5k a month… and yes I’m buying equities in my 401k, IRA and taxable. But I don’t buy $5k of equities in taxable per month, I just transfer it in automatically and wait for my (aggressively low but small) orders to trigger, and buy treasuries in months my orders don’t trigger. I have $43k sitting in a core fund, ugh. Could be worse.

But I’m new to this and have a very low equity AA so I’m taking the opportunity to buy. I’m Gen X, so I was watching you all very closely in the 60s, 70s and 80s. And I still am. :beer

I was a kinda poor urban kid and we got game.
Ed 2
Posts: 2692
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:34 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Ed 2 »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:07 pm
Ed 2 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pm
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:34 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:00 pm

I’ve got a 2 week old GTC order in for $178.95 in taxable. At the end of the trading day Friday I was frozen, holding my breath. I’m torn whether GTC orders are the dumbest, or smartest things ever. Dumbest because you might hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger, or smartest, because you hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger (lol). I guess I’ll know this week.

I bought FSKAX late in the day though in a regular market order for my Roth IRA. Tired of all these *games*! (hypocritical mock sigh, back of hand to forehead).
I don’t do any tricky sort of buying. I just buy in taxable on the last day of the month, knowing dollar cost averaging is a sure ways to neutralize worry over whether stocks are going to go up, or if they’re going to go down over the short term.
I auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.
I don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!
I’m in my 50s. Oh I save more than $5k a month… and yes I’m buying equities in my 401k, IRA and taxable. But I don’t buy $5k of equities in taxable per month, I just transfer it in automatically and wait for my (aggressively low but small) orders to trigger, and buy treasuries in months my orders don’t trigger. I have $43k sitting in a core fund, ugh. Could be worse.

But I’m new to this and have a very low equity AA so I’m taking the opportunity to buy. I’m Gen X, so I was watching you all very closely in the 60s, 70s and 80s. And I still am. :beer

I was a kinda poor urban kid and we got game.
Same here , I am 52 . Me and my better half savings approximately 3-4k a month . Have some cash in I Bonds and some California municipal bond funds , other than that mostly buying equity- VT, Total Stocks Market Index funds domestic and international , some Vanguard REIT , have big taxable account because I don’t want to wait SS and going to retire prior 60.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
travsmill
Posts: 63
Joined: Mon Jan 25, 2021 4:44 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by travsmill »

37, currently sitting with an AA of 30/70 (stocks/MM+Cash). I made a big adjustment to safe assets last Sept 2021 so I'd sleep better (fair market timing). I was contributing $3800/mo, now I'm increasing to $5000/mo in taxable (weekly DCA towards VTSAX and VTIAX) to capture equities on sale. I speculate we are still on the downturn; staying the course, but time to buy more.

I have to learn to let these investments be for awhile and stop checking in on them so frequently. Seems like so much to keep track of and stay on top of during these turbulent times.
User avatar
AnnetteLouisan
Posts: 7239
Joined: Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:16 pm
Location: New York, NY

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

Ed 2 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pm
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:34 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:00 pm
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Fri Sep 30, 2022 3:21 pm I bought VTI on the close.

Prepare for another leg down. :)
I’ve got a 2 week old GTC order in for $178.95 in taxable. At the end of the trading day Friday I was frozen, holding my breath. I’m torn whether GTC orders are the dumbest, or smartest things ever. Dumbest because you might hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger, or smartest, because you hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger (lol). I guess I’ll know this week.

I bought FSKAX late in the day though in a regular market order for my Roth IRA. Tired of all these *games*! (hypocritical mock sigh, back of hand to forehead).
I don’t do any tricky sort of buying. I just buy in taxable on the last day of the month, knowing dollar cost averaging is a sure ways to neutralize worry over whether stocks are going to go up, or if they’re going to go down over the short term.
I auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.
I don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!
Maybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?
MattB
Posts: 1226
Joined: Fri May 28, 2021 12:27 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by MattB »

strummer6969 wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:31 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:55 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:17 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:06 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:03 pm

Are you sure? You know 4.6%. I know 4.6%. Everyone knows 4.6% Doesn't that mean it is priced in?
I don't see a 10 year treasury bond anywhere remotely near 5%. That's what I would expect with a 4.6% Fed Funds rate. Markets don't automatically reprice.
Can't argue with that.

But what about equities? Equities reprice much quicker. Is that interest rate already priced into equities? Maybe not yet, maybe we are getting there and equities have more to drop. Or, maybe the current price is an over reaction.
The 10 year is below 4%, so I doubt it. I don't think the market participants know what's going to happen with inflation this high, so the market should bounce around until actual data comes out. I think, it goes lower with bad earnings coming out this quarter.

It's hard to reprice correctly when there are so many unknowns.
A lot of BHs are buying the dip. I guess someone has to catch the falling knives.

What's the old adage, "don't fight the fed?" I'm not buying the dip and playing a game of chicken. Fed tightening into a bad earnings quarter... no thanks.
I'm not timing the market. I'm comfortable with my asset allocation and continue to make regular purchases as money comes in.
strummer6969
Posts: 978
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:59 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by strummer6969 »

MattB wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:51 am
strummer6969 wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 11:31 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:55 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:17 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:06 pm

I don't see a 10 year treasury bond anywhere remotely near 5%. That's what I would expect with a 4.6% Fed Funds rate. Markets don't automatically reprice.
Can't argue with that.

But what about equities? Equities reprice much quicker. Is that interest rate already priced into equities? Maybe not yet, maybe we are getting there and equities have more to drop. Or, maybe the current price is an over reaction.
The 10 year is below 4%, so I doubt it. I don't think the market participants know what's going to happen with inflation this high, so the market should bounce around until actual data comes out. I think, it goes lower with bad earnings coming out this quarter.

It's hard to reprice correctly when there are so many unknowns.
A lot of BHs are buying the dip. I guess someone has to catch the falling knives.

What's the old adage, "don't fight the fed?" I'm not buying the dip and playing a game of chicken. Fed tightening into a bad earnings quarter... no thanks.
I'm not timing the market. I'm comfortable with my asset allocation and continue to make regular purchases as money comes in.
I'm doing the same. I'm not investing any more or less. I've learned from personal experience that shoving extra money into a bear market (beyond AA) is a terrible idea. I had a job loss when I did that in 2008 and ended up selling stocks at a loss (double whammy).
EnjoyIt
Posts: 8244
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:06 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by EnjoyIt »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 am
Ed 2 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pm
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:34 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:00 pm

I’ve got a 2 week old GTC order in for $178.95 in taxable. At the end of the trading day Friday I was frozen, holding my breath. I’m torn whether GTC orders are the dumbest, or smartest things ever. Dumbest because you might hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger, or smartest, because you hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger (lol). I guess I’ll know this week.

I bought FSKAX late in the day though in a regular market order for my Roth IRA. Tired of all these *games*! (hypocritical mock sigh, back of hand to forehead).
I don’t do any tricky sort of buying. I just buy in taxable on the last day of the month, knowing dollar cost averaging is a sure ways to neutralize worry over whether stocks are going to go up, or if they’re going to go down over the short term.
I auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.
I don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!
Maybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?
Unless you know what direction the market will go and when, I think you have no other choice but to keep following your plan which is to continue to buy with every paycheck or whatever your IPS dictates. There are plenty here who claim they know something and say they are waiting. Maybe they are right, maybe they are wrong. I know I can't predict the future and I would wager that those people are no better than me. So yeah, I buy into a declining market whenever I have cash available to make those purchases.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
EnjoyIt
Posts: 8244
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:06 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by EnjoyIt »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 am
Ed 2 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pm
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:34 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:00 pm

I’ve got a 2 week old GTC order in for $178.95 in taxable. At the end of the trading day Friday I was frozen, holding my breath. I’m torn whether GTC orders are the dumbest, or smartest things ever. Dumbest because you might hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger, or smartest, because you hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger (lol). I guess I’ll know this week.

I bought FSKAX late in the day though in a regular market order for my Roth IRA. Tired of all these *games*! (hypocritical mock sigh, back of hand to forehead).
I don’t do any tricky sort of buying. I just buy in taxable on the last day of the month, knowing dollar cost averaging is a sure ways to neutralize worry over whether stocks are going to go up, or if they’re going to go down over the short term.
I auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.
I don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!
Maybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?
On the same note, let's say you are wrong on this month's purchase and the market goes down another 10%. You will be still do fine several years into the future. But what if you don't buy and the market goes up and you are sitting on cash. Before you know it 6 months later you are still waiting sitting on more cash while the market takes off for a solid recovery. How many posts have you seen over the years with people holding too much cash because that is exactly what happened to them.

Stop thinking. Follow your IPS. That is why we have an IPS after all.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
User avatar
AnnetteLouisan
Posts: 7239
Joined: Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:16 pm
Location: New York, NY

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

Yes under my IPS I am maxing my 401k, maxing my Roth IRA, maxing my catch ups on both, contributing to my pension and SS, plus investing around $6k each month in equities, treasuries and more often some of both, plus saving in HYSAs. Aiming for a 30/70 AA, up from 20/80 (yes very bond heavy). We’ll see how it all shakes out, but I have over ten years until I expect to need the money.

Plus I’ve been buying myself some little treats since I needed some clothes and stuff after the pandemic buying hiatus. Just a mild refresh. I need to look presentable.
Last edited by AnnetteLouisan on Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:58 am, edited 1 time in total.
Lazareth
Posts: 337
Joined: Tue Nov 01, 2016 9:21 am
Location: USA

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Lazareth »

From Bloomberg.com Jul 25, 2022:

Headline: "Yardeni Says S&P 500 Has Already Bottomed, Sees No Hard Landing. Strategist nailed the inflection of bear markets in 1982, 2009."

From the article: "...if Yardeni’s track record is any indication, it’s worth heeding the view of a market veteran who coined terms like “Fed Model” and “bond vigilante.” The strategist, who worked at Oak Associates Ltd. and Deutsche Bank before founding his namesake research firm, called the equity bottom the same month when the 1982 bear market ended. He then repeated the success in March 2009 when the S&P 500 reached an intraday low of 666.79 -- 3,000 points below this year’s trough in what he calls another “devilish number.”

Me: Even a broken clock is correct twice a day. Not intending to insult to Mr Yardeni, a bright and successful financial markets analyst. But my experience having followed such expert predictions for four decades is that one, or in this case two, well-publicized and well-timed predictions will carry a person's "expert" status in the press for their lifetime regardless of future accuracy which is often less reliable.
Last edited by Lazareth on Sun Oct 02, 2022 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
a/69, retired, married, enjoy p/t employment. Three-fund portfolio, after decades of chasing active-managed fund performance.
pennywiser
Posts: 177
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2022 1:54 pm
Location: UK

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by pennywiser »

strummer6969 wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:59 am I've learned from personal experience that shoving extra money into a bear market (beyond AA) is a terrible idea. I had a job loss when I did that in 2008 and ended up selling stocks at a loss (double whammy).
It seems to me that the issue here was not having emergency fund in place, rather than investing in bear market...
strummer6969
Posts: 978
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:59 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by strummer6969 »

pennywiser wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:53 am
strummer6969 wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:59 am I've learned from personal experience that shoving extra money into a bear market (beyond AA) is a terrible idea. I had a job loss when I did that in 2008 and ended up selling stocks at a loss (double whammy).
It seems to me that the issue here was not having emergency fund in place, rather than investing in bear market...
I had a few months of emergency funds. In my case, I ended up needing 1 year in emergency funds.
elderwise
Posts: 836
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2016 10:27 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by elderwise »

Feels like tomorrow we might hit another new bottom of a bottom.
CloudStrife1990
Posts: 9
Joined: Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:33 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by CloudStrife1990 »

I heard that there's some rumours emerging that Credit Suisse is on the verge of bankruptcy and that there's an emergency meeting of the Fed on Monday.

Anyone know what the impact this would be on the market?
User avatar
AnnetteLouisan
Posts: 7239
Joined: Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:16 pm
Location: New York, NY

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

Ugh! I knew I should have canceled my GTC order! My gut was telling me that last week, but I decided to keep it.
Post Reply