OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

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DesertMan
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by DesertMan »

September 23, 2022: approaching bottom for the market this year.

Moral of the story… thou shall not market time. If you feel the need to market time, your asset allocation doesn’t fit your risk tolerance and it’s time to reassess that.

I do agree with those who believe that “this time is different” and that the market has fundamentally changed. At the very least I think that it’s time to go back to “age in bonds” when talking of retirement goals, *assuming that one intends to retire at 70*. Most people here probably don’t, and so they need to scale down their stock allocation accordingly. I wouldn’t be in stocks *at all* if you are 10 years or less from your goal, because “lost decades” can and do happen and we may well see one soon.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Apathizer »

Tom_T wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:48 pm
Apathizer wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:03 pm
wetgear wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:03 pm Multiple bottoms?
A month ago was just the bottom, not the bottom of the bottom. Today was really the bottom of the bottom. Well, it might be anyway. But maybe not. :wink:
What was the Churchill quote during the war? "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."
Yes, I remember that quote. I think it was Churchill, but maybe not. Hopefully this is the bottom of the bottom. But maybe there's a bottom of the bottom's bottom.
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ApeAttack
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by ApeAttack »

PDX_Traveler wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:19 pm
ApeAttack wrote: Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:56 pm
9-5 Suited wrote: Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:32 pm
KlangFool wrote: Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:27 pm
9-5 Suited wrote: Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:22 pm
[..]

My guess is KF, like many posters and many people in real life conversations, are not taking the time to be precise in expressing their thoughts. KF should've said, "I think there is a high probability of 1-2 years of pain."
That is not any more precise. That is also not actionable in any sense. So, just idle chatter, which, to be fair, is fitting well with the thread topic
A statement is more precise if it's closer to what he meant when he wrote his statement. Anyone who is familiar with KF's history knows that he is very cautious based on his life experiences. He is ready for a 10 year depression or a 10 year bull market, and often states nobody can predict the future.

KF's english sometimes has grammatical errors though, so that's why I was offering a possible explantation of what he was trying to say. He thinks the economy is going to suffer for a while, but he's not placing a bet on his hunch.

By precise, I don't mean it's an accurate prediction. I don't think anyone can accurately predict the future.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Vanguard User »

If SP 500 drops to 1,000 that would be nice and goes up to 5,000.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Vanguard User »

ronno2018 wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:32 pm Just switched my measly $1600 a month 401K contribution from VBTLX (total bond) to FXAIX (large stock blend).

Also just reached my bond holdings goal (more or less). Almost 59.5yo. Decisions ahead -- bad idea? Is this market timing? :sharebeer
I have been 85% on FXAIX on 401k for over a year now.
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AnnetteLouisan
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

I think we’re through most of the pain. It’s been almost ten months of this. We need some good news. After my GTC order triggers, that is. Hopefully next week. That was my GTC experiment (VTI at $179.75). I’m not repeating it, because if not for that I would have bought today.
Variant
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Variant »

mortfree wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:37 pm Why aren’t you maxing out?

If it’s measly does the switch matter?

I don’t think it does and you can justify it
Is OP over 50? If not, the 2022 contribution limit is $20,500. OP is only $1300 ($108/mo.) off that pace.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by ruralavalon »

ronno2018 wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:32 pm Just switched my measly $1600 a month 401K contribution from VBTLX (total bond) to FXAIX (large stock blend).

Also just reached my bond holdings goal (more or less). Almost 59.5yo. Decisions ahead -- bad idea? Is this market timing? :sharebeer
Market bottom 9/3/22??

Ha, ha, ha. Great joke :D
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by BolderBoy »

DesertMan wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:30 pmI do agree with those who believe that “this time is different” and that the market has fundamentally changed.
You are safe in believing that so long as you don't act on that belief.

In 2008 most of my workmates (who were all >20 years younger than I) were running around saying, "This time is different!" It didn't turn out to be true then, either.
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DesertMan
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by DesertMan »

BolderBoy wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:16 am
DesertMan wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:30 pmI do agree with those who believe that “this time is different” and that the market has fundamentally changed.
You are safe in believing that so long as you don't act on that belief.

In 2008 most of my workmates (who were all >20 years younger than I) were running around saying, "This time is different!" It didn't turn out to be true then, either.
Please read that in context of the rest of the post. Plenty of folks (including Vanguard) were already predicting that the 2020s would not deliver the kind of outsize tech-fueled and globalization-boosted equity returns that we had grown accustomed to in the 1990s-2019 period and that we were overdue for a reversion to the mean. And that’s all I’m saying.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by nigel_ht »

DesertMan wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:41 pm
BolderBoy wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:16 am
DesertMan wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:30 pmI do agree with those who believe that “this time is different” and that the market has fundamentally changed.
You are safe in believing that so long as you don't act on that belief.

In 2008 most of my workmates (who were all >20 years younger than I) were running around saying, "This time is different!" It didn't turn out to be true then, either.
Please read that in context of the rest of the post. Plenty of folks (including Vanguard) were already predicting that the 2020s would not deliver the kind of outsize tech-fueled and globalization-boosted equity returns that we had grown accustomed to in the 1990s-2019 period and that we were overdue for a reversion to the mean. And that’s all I’m saying.
I think the issue is that they’ve been predicting low returns for a while now.

Eventually they’ll be right but if you followed their advice you probably left a lot of money on the table this last decade…
DesertMan
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by DesertMan »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:10 pm
I think the issue is that they’ve been predicting low returns for a while now.

Eventually they’ll be right but if you followed their advice you probably left a lot of money on the table this last decade…
It’s true that a broken clock is right twice a day, but it’s also true that reversion to the mean happens. When you have long periods of outsize performance, reversion will happen. You can’t necessarily predict exactly when, but it will. The problem this time is that there is was too much outperformance for too long and that many investors forgot all about the fact that reversion is a thing. Vanguard et al. did not forget and that’s why their forecasts were low.

What I’m saying is that we are talking about two different things—whether reversion to the mean happens (which it does, which is why we index) and whether you can predict in advance when it will happen, which I think we agree you can’t.

Edit: And I do think that the longer the market moves away from the average, the greater the probability that there will be a reversion and the greater the severity of that reversion (read: Second Great Recession) will be.
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Lawrence of Suburbia
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Lawrence of Suburbia »

I'm calling the bottom NOW ... S&P up >2% today

I just now poured a ton of money into the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend Index ...

... more than one thousand dollars!! (said in Dr. Evil voice) :mrgreen:
Last edited by Lawrence of Suburbia on Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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smitcat
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by smitcat »

Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:14 pm I'm calling the bottom NOW ... S&P up >1% today

I just now poured a ton of money into the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend Index ...

... more than one thousand dollars!! (said in Dr. Evil voice) :mrgreen:
Wow - much luck.
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ronno2018
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by ronno2018 »

Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:14 pm I'm calling the bottom NOW ... S&P up >1% today

I just now poured a ton of money into the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend Index ...

... more than one thousand dollars!! (said in Dr. Evil voice) :mrgreen:
Good job, I am (dr.) evil too and have so far had my 401k buy an immense amount of FXAIX since I publicly called the bottom (well ok $1600 worth).

:sharebeer
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Lawrence of Suburbia
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Lawrence of Suburbia »

ronno2018 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:38 pm
Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:14 pm I'm calling the bottom NOW ... S&P up >1% today

I just now poured a ton of money into the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend Index ...

... more than one thousand dollars!! (said in Dr. Evil voice) :mrgreen:
Good job, I am (dr.) evil too and have so far had my 401k buy an immense amount of FXAIX since I publicly called the bottom (well ok $1600 worth).

:sharebeer
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by tesuzuki2002 »

Californiastate wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm VTI needs to hold above 195 or the next floor is 188. Below that is the recent market low of 181. It can get ugly if it blows past 181.
Good thing we held at $ 181.05 I don't think $160 is too far off on the next leg down.
strummer6969
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by strummer6969 »

Nice, everything I own is up bigly today, even VXUS :sharebeer Anyone know what happened? I love hearing the narratives :)
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Weathering »

strummer6969 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:49 pm Nice, everything I own is up bigly today, even VXUS :sharebeer Anyone know what happened? I love hearing the narratives :)
Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by strummer6969 »

Weathering wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:59 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:49 pm Nice, everything I own is up bigly today, even VXUS :sharebeer Anyone know what happened? I love hearing the narratives :)
Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
Thanks. That is pretty significant.
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HomerJ
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by HomerJ »

DesertMan wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:41 pm
BolderBoy wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:16 am
DesertMan wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:30 pmI do agree with those who believe that “this time is different” and that the market has fundamentally changed.
You are safe in believing that so long as you don't act on that belief.

In 2008 most of my workmates (who were all >20 years younger than I) were running around saying, "This time is different!" It didn't turn out to be true then, either.
Please read that in context of the rest of the post. Plenty of folks (including Vanguard) were already predicting that the 2020s would not deliver the kind of outsize tech-fueled and globalization-boosted equity returns that we had grown accustomed to in the 1990s-2019 period and that we were overdue for a reversion to the mean. And that’s all I’m saying.
Plenty of people were saying that in 2011
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by KlangFool »

Weathering wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:59 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:49 pm Nice, everything I own is up bigly today, even VXUS :sharebeer Anyone know what happened? I love hearing the narratives :)
Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
Weathering,

And, that won't matter when the US Fed raise the interest rate again. My prediction is this won't stop until after the election. Fighting the inflation would be first priority until after the election.

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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by smitcat »

strummer6969 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:02 pm
Weathering wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:59 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:49 pm Nice, everything I own is up bigly today, even VXUS :sharebeer Anyone know what happened? I love hearing the narratives :)
Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
Thanks. That is pretty significant.
And what has the IMF said about this move?
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Apathizer »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:37 pm
DesertMan wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:41 pm
BolderBoy wrote: Sat Sep 24, 2022 10:16 am
DesertMan wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:30 pmI do agree with those who believe that “this time is different” and that the market has fundamentally changed.
You are safe in believing that so long as you don't act on that belief.

In 2008 most of my workmates (who were all >20 years younger than I) were running around saying, "This time is different!" It didn't turn out to be true then, either.
Please read that in context of the rest of the post. Plenty of folks (including Vanguard) were already predicting that the 2020s would not deliver the kind of outsize tech-fueled and globalization-boosted equity returns that we had grown accustomed to in the 1990s-2019 period and that we were overdue for a reversion to the mean. And that’s all I’m saying.
Plenty of people were saying that in 2011
True, but sustained growth returns to this degree are anomalous. That's not to see it can't continue, but that's unlikely.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by balkan_investor »

@Mods, bring back the free fall and soaring threads! We’ll behave, promise!

In all seriousness though, those threads were helpful during the Covid panic, it was one of the few places on the internet where despite the majority panicking, there was a sizable minority reminding everybody to stay the course.

We might need a place like that again soon.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by drk »

Weathering wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:59 pm Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
It seems fitting that we recently passed the 30th anniversary of the trade of the century.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Lawrence of Suburbia »

Weathering wrote: Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
Okay, I take my call back. Terrifying markets plunge resumes tomorrow. :mrgreen:
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Marseille07
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Marseille07 »

Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:39 pm
Weathering wrote: Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
Okay, I take my call back. Terrifying markets plunge resumes tomorrow. :mrgreen:
Buddy, please go see a CFP. Highly recommended.
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Lawrence of Suburbia
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Lawrence of Suburbia »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:23 pm
Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:39 pm
Weathering wrote: Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
Okay, I take my call back. Terrifying markets plunge resumes tomorrow. :mrgreen:
Buddy, please go see a CFP. Highly recommended.
I'm scheduled with one next month, actually.

I was kidding about the 'terrifying' part, at least for myself; I think I've enough income to get me through a truly bad 2-year patch.
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strummer6969
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by strummer6969 »

Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:39 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:23 pm
Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:39 pm
Weathering wrote: Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
Okay, I take my call back. Terrifying markets plunge resumes tomorrow. :mrgreen:
Buddy, please go see a CFP. Highly recommended.
I'm scheduled with one next month, actually.

I was kidding about the 'terrifying' part, at least for myself; I think I've enough income to get me through a truly bad 2-year patch.
FOMO to buyer's remorse in a day! That's something.
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Lawrence of Suburbia
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Lawrence of Suburbia »

strummer6969 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:20 pmFOMO to buyer's remorse in a day! That's something.
Something about "Consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds" ... :mrgreen:

You actually have to know something about a subject to be consistent ... and I'm a blank slate. Too many decades in the rock'n'roll biz
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strummer6969
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by strummer6969 »

Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:25 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:20 pmFOMO to buyer's remorse in a day! That's something.
Something about "Consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds" ... :mrgreen:

You actually have to know something about a subject to be consistent ... and I'm a blank slate. Too many decades in the rock'n'roll biz
I think it's "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds."

Been there, done that - through all the ranges of emotions. I suspect that's how many people ended up as BHs.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

tesuzuki2002 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:47 pm
Californiastate wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm VTI needs to hold above 195 or the next floor is 188. Below that is the recent market low of 181. It can get ugly if it blows past 181.
Good thing we held at $ 181.05 I don't think $160 is too far off on the next leg down.
It briefly touched 180 this week, not to quibble.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Marseille07 »

Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:39 pm I'm scheduled with one next month, actually.

I was kidding about the 'terrifying' part, at least for myself; I think I've enough income to get me through a truly bad 2-year patch.
I truly hope you survive a bad 2-year patch as your sig says you have 4 years' cash.
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Lawrence of Suburbia
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Lawrence of Suburbia »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:42 pm
Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:39 pm I'm scheduled with one next month, actually.

I was kidding about the 'terrifying' part, at least for myself; I think I've enough income to get me through a truly bad 2-year patch.
I truly hope you survive a bad 2-year patch as your sig says you have 4 years' cash.
Thanks. ... the cash actually serves two purposes; to get me through a few bad years; but I'm hoping to have enough left in two years to purchase another SPIA.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by ebeb »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:23 pm
Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:39 pm
Weathering wrote: Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
Okay, I take my call back. Terrifying markets plunge resumes tomorrow. :mrgreen:
Buddy, please go see a CFP. Highly recommended.
No CFP needed this guy is prophetic, hopefully June low breaches today. Time to jump in when we get closer to -30% :shock:
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by trirunner »

ebeb wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:04 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:23 pm
Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:39 pm
Weathering wrote: Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
Okay, I take my call back. Terrifying markets plunge resumes tomorrow. :mrgreen:
Buddy, please go see a CFP. Highly recommended.
No CFP needed this guy is prophetic, hopefully June low breaches today. Time to jump in when we get closer to -30% :shock:
30% is a shallow recession with Fed moving to zero bound, where we are today though
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by ruralavalon »

strummer6969 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:10 pm
Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:25 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:20 pmFOMO to buyer's remorse in a day! That's something.
Something about "Consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds" ... :mrgreen:

You actually have to know something about a subject to be consistent ... and I'm a blank slate. Too many decades in the rock'n'roll biz
I think it's "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds."

Been there, done that - through all the ranges of emotions. I suspect that's how many people ended up as BHs.
More fully "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines."

The point being the error in refusing to reconsider a prior viewpoint.

Source
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by nigel_ht »

trirunner wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:20 am
ebeb wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:04 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:23 pm
Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:39 pm
Weathering wrote: Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
Okay, I take my call back. Terrifying markets plunge resumes tomorrow. :mrgreen:
Buddy, please go see a CFP. Highly recommended.
No CFP needed this guy is prophetic, hopefully June low breaches today. Time to jump in when we get closer to -30% :shock:
30% is a shallow recession with Fed moving to zero bound, where we are today though
I'm pretty sure the Fed, being composed of some of our brightest folks, will work very hard to avoid the mistakes of the past. I think, with nothing concrete to base this on, that they will largely succeed.

But I do wonder if the QE that we've had in the last decade or so has put us into an area where future historians will go "Yep, this point right here is where the Fed screwed up and made a bad situation worse, leading inevitably into the Great <your disaster here> of the mid 20s"
FireSekr
Posts: 1383
Joined: Tue Apr 02, 2013 9:54 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by FireSekr »

nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:36 pm
trirunner wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:20 am
ebeb wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:04 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:23 pm
Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:39 pm

Okay, I take my call back. Terrifying markets plunge resumes tomorrow. :mrgreen:
Buddy, please go see a CFP. Highly recommended.
No CFP needed this guy is prophetic, hopefully June low breaches today. Time to jump in when we get closer to -30% :shock:
30% is a shallow recession with Fed moving to zero bound, where we are today though
I'm pretty sure the Fed, being composed of some of our brightest folks, will work very hard to avoid the mistakes of the past. I think, with nothing concrete to base this on, that they will largely succeed.
“Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “soft landing” and signaling that things a going to be a bit worse than they were hoping.

They’re a bunch of government hacks. I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by nigel_ht »

FireSekr wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:17 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:36 pm
trirunner wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:20 am
ebeb wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:04 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:23 pm

Buddy, please go see a CFP. Highly recommended.
No CFP needed this guy is prophetic, hopefully June low breaches today. Time to jump in when we get closer to -30% :shock:
30% is a shallow recession with Fed moving to zero bound, where we are today though
I'm pretty sure the Fed, being composed of some of our brightest folks, will work very hard to avoid the mistakes of the past. I think, with nothing concrete to base this on, that they will largely succeed.
“Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “soft landing” and signaling that things a going to be a bit worse than they were hoping.

They’re a bunch of government hacks. I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
In 2021 when Powell was talking soft landing he had some chance of success. After the Russia/Ukraine war kicked off…not so much.

The Fed did get a lot more aggressive after that but with diesel prices up there was no hope of a soft landing after that.
EnjoyIt
Posts: 8244
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:06 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by EnjoyIt »

nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:07 pm
FireSekr wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:17 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:36 pm
trirunner wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:20 am
ebeb wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:04 am

No CFP needed this guy is prophetic, hopefully June low breaches today. Time to jump in when we get closer to -30% :shock:
30% is a shallow recession with Fed moving to zero bound, where we are today though
I'm pretty sure the Fed, being composed of some of our brightest folks, will work very hard to avoid the mistakes of the past. I think, with nothing concrete to base this on, that they will largely succeed.
“Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “soft landing” and signaling that things a going to be a bit worse than they were hoping.

They’re a bunch of government hacks. I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
In 2021 when Powell was talking soft landing he had some chance of success. After the Russia/Ukraine war kicked off…not so much.

The Fed did get a lot more aggressive after that but with diesel prices up there was no hope of a soft landing after that.
Powell says there will be more rate hikes. I would assume those rate hikes are already priced in. Let's hope we don't need more unexpected rate hikes after this batch of expected rate hikes are implemented.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
Topic Author
ronno2018
Posts: 567
Joined: Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:31 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by ronno2018 »

I really liked the "free fall and soaring" threads I did not realize cancel culture got to them (JOKE!).

Anyway this thread is not really actionable so it should get locked? Sorry I posted it! Well, at least until the market bottoms and I can be proved correct once again. LOL. :sharebeer
gougou
Posts: 1311
Joined: Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:42 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by gougou »

Chart looks horrible. Abandon ship :shock:
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
rockstar
Posts: 6308
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:51 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by rockstar »

EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:12 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:07 pm
FireSekr wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:17 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:36 pm
trirunner wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:20 am
30% is a shallow recession with Fed moving to zero bound, where we are today though
I'm pretty sure the Fed, being composed of some of our brightest folks, will work very hard to avoid the mistakes of the past. I think, with nothing concrete to base this on, that they will largely succeed.
“Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “soft landing” and signaling that things a going to be a bit worse than they were hoping.

They’re a bunch of government hacks. I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
In 2021 when Powell was talking soft landing he had some chance of success. After the Russia/Ukraine war kicked off…not so much.

The Fed did get a lot more aggressive after that but with diesel prices up there was no hope of a soft landing after that.
Powell says there will be more rate hikes. I would assume those rate hikes are already priced in. Let's hope we don't need more unexpected rate hikes after this batch of expected rate hikes are implemented.
He said he's going to 4.6%. That doesn't seem priced in yet.
TropikThunder
Posts: 3909
Joined: Sun Apr 03, 2016 5:41 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by TropikThunder »

ronno2018 wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:15 pm Well, at least until the market bottoms and I can be proved correct wrong once again. LOL. :sharebeer
Fixed that for you.
elderwise
Posts: 836
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2016 10:27 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by elderwise »

nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:07 pm
FireSekr wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:17 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:36 pm
trirunner wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:20 am
ebeb wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:04 am

No CFP needed this guy is prophetic, hopefully June low breaches today. Time to jump in when we get closer to -30% :shock:
30% is a shallow recession with Fed moving to zero bound, where we are today though
I'm pretty sure the Fed, being composed of some of our brightest folks, will work very hard to avoid the mistakes of the past. I think, with nothing concrete to base this on, that they will largely succeed.
“Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “soft landing” and signaling that things a going to be a bit worse than they were hoping.

They’re a bunch of government hacks. I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
In 2021 when Powell was talking soft landing he had some chance of success. After the Russia/Ukraine war kicked off…not so much.

The Fed did get a lot more aggressive after that but with diesel prices up there was no hope of a soft landing after that.
At this time in a room full of intelligent economists / feds are deciding

..

If we should have ..

A

Hard landing

Or

A crash landing

I don't know the difference between either but both will be equally bad.
ebeb
Posts: 657
Joined: Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:18 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by ebeb »

FireSekr wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:17 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:36 pm
I'm pretty sure the Fed, being composed of some of our brightest folks, will work very hard to avoid the mistakes of the past. I think, with nothing concrete to base this on, that they will largely succeed.
“Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “soft landing” and signaling that things a going to be a bit worse than they were hoping.

They’re a bunch of government hacks. I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
Agree Feds don't seem too bright after 8.5% inflation. For what its worth I dumped few thousand into VOO today, figure it cant go below -15% max from here since the June bottom is officially breached :confused
80% VOO | 20% BND+TBILL+CASH | Don't believe Nobody because Nobody knows nothin' - Anon
EnjoyIt
Posts: 8244
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:06 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by EnjoyIt »

rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:33 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:12 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:07 pm
FireSekr wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:17 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:36 pm

I'm pretty sure the Fed, being composed of some of our brightest folks, will work very hard to avoid the mistakes of the past. I think, with nothing concrete to base this on, that they will largely succeed.
“Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “soft landing” and signaling that things a going to be a bit worse than they were hoping.

They’re a bunch of government hacks. I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
In 2021 when Powell was talking soft landing he had some chance of success. After the Russia/Ukraine war kicked off…not so much.

The Fed did get a lot more aggressive after that but with diesel prices up there was no hope of a soft landing after that.
Powell says there will be more rate hikes. I would assume those rate hikes are already priced in. Let's hope we don't need more unexpected rate hikes after this batch of expected rate hikes are implemented.
He said he's going to 4.6%. That doesn't seem priced in yet.
Are you sure? You know 4.6%. I know 4.6%. Everyone knows 4.6% Doesn't that mean it is priced in?
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
rockstar
Posts: 6308
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:51 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by rockstar »

EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:03 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:33 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:12 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:07 pm
FireSekr wrote: Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:17 pm
“Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “soft landing” and signaling that things a going to be a bit worse than they were hoping.

They’re a bunch of government hacks. I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
In 2021 when Powell was talking soft landing he had some chance of success. After the Russia/Ukraine war kicked off…not so much.

The Fed did get a lot more aggressive after that but with diesel prices up there was no hope of a soft landing after that.
Powell says there will be more rate hikes. I would assume those rate hikes are already priced in. Let's hope we don't need more unexpected rate hikes after this batch of expected rate hikes are implemented.
He said he's going to 4.6%. That doesn't seem priced in yet.
Are you sure? You know 4.6%. I know 4.6%. Everyone knows 4.6% Doesn't that mean it is priced in?
I don't see a 10 year treasury bond anywhere remotely near 5%. That's what I would expect with a 4.6% Fed Funds rate. Markets don't automatically reprice.
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