OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
September 23, 2022: approaching bottom for the market this year.
Moral of the story… thou shall not market time. If you feel the need to market time, your asset allocation doesn’t fit your risk tolerance and it’s time to reassess that.
I do agree with those who believe that “this time is different” and that the market has fundamentally changed. At the very least I think that it’s time to go back to “age in bonds” when talking of retirement goals, *assuming that one intends to retire at 70*. Most people here probably don’t, and so they need to scale down their stock allocation accordingly. I wouldn’t be in stocks *at all* if you are 10 years or less from your goal, because “lost decades” can and do happen and we may well see one soon.
Moral of the story… thou shall not market time. If you feel the need to market time, your asset allocation doesn’t fit your risk tolerance and it’s time to reassess that.
I do agree with those who believe that “this time is different” and that the market has fundamentally changed. At the very least I think that it’s time to go back to “age in bonds” when talking of retirement goals, *assuming that one intends to retire at 70*. Most people here probably don’t, and so they need to scale down their stock allocation accordingly. I wouldn’t be in stocks *at all* if you are 10 years or less from your goal, because “lost decades” can and do happen and we may well see one soon.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Yes, I remember that quote. I think it was Churchill, but maybe not. Hopefully this is the bottom of the bottom. But maybe there's a bottom of the bottom's bottom.
ROTH: 50% AVGE, 10% DFAX, 40% BNDW. Taxable: 50% BNDW, 40% AVGE, 10% DFAX.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
A statement is more precise if it's closer to what he meant when he wrote his statement. Anyone who is familiar with KF's history knows that he is very cautious based on his life experiences. He is ready for a 10 year depression or a 10 year bull market, and often states nobody can predict the future.PDX_Traveler wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:19 pmThat is not any more precise. That is also not actionable in any sense. So, just idle chatter, which, to be fair, is fitting well with the thread topicApeAttack wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:56 pm9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:32 pmKlangFool wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:27 pm9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:22 pm
[..]
My guess is KF, like many posters and many people in real life conversations, are not taking the time to be precise in expressing their thoughts. KF should've said, "I think there is a high probability of 1-2 years of pain."
KF's english sometimes has grammatical errors though, so that's why I was offering a possible explantation of what he was trying to say. He thinks the economy is going to suffer for a while, but he's not placing a bet on his hunch.
By precise, I don't mean it's an accurate prediction. I don't think anyone can accurately predict the future.
May all your index funds gain +0.5% today.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
If SP 500 drops to 1,000 that would be nice and goes up to 5,000.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I have been 85% on FXAIX on 401k for over a year now.
- AnnetteLouisan
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I think we’re through most of the pain. It’s been almost ten months of this. We need some good news. After my GTC order triggers, that is. Hopefully next week. That was my GTC experiment (VTI at $179.75). I’m not repeating it, because if not for that I would have bought today.
- ruralavalon
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Market bottom 9/3/22??
Ha, ha, ha. Great joke
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
You are safe in believing that so long as you don't act on that belief.
In 2008 most of my workmates (who were all >20 years younger than I) were running around saying, "This time is different!" It didn't turn out to be true then, either.
"Never underestimate one's capacity to overestimate one's abilities" - The Dunning-Kruger Effect
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Please read that in context of the rest of the post. Plenty of folks (including Vanguard) were already predicting that the 2020s would not deliver the kind of outsize tech-fueled and globalization-boosted equity returns that we had grown accustomed to in the 1990s-2019 period and that we were overdue for a reversion to the mean. And that’s all I’m saying.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I think the issue is that they’ve been predicting low returns for a while now.DesertMan wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:41 pmPlease read that in context of the rest of the post. Plenty of folks (including Vanguard) were already predicting that the 2020s would not deliver the kind of outsize tech-fueled and globalization-boosted equity returns that we had grown accustomed to in the 1990s-2019 period and that we were overdue for a reversion to the mean. And that’s all I’m saying.
Eventually they’ll be right but if you followed their advice you probably left a lot of money on the table this last decade…
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
It’s true that a broken clock is right twice a day, but it’s also true that reversion to the mean happens. When you have long periods of outsize performance, reversion will happen. You can’t necessarily predict exactly when, but it will. The problem this time is that there is was too much outperformance for too long and that many investors forgot all about the fact that reversion is a thing. Vanguard et al. did not forget and that’s why their forecasts were low.
What I’m saying is that we are talking about two different things—whether reversion to the mean happens (which it does, which is why we index) and whether you can predict in advance when it will happen, which I think we agree you can’t.
Edit: And I do think that the longer the market moves away from the average, the greater the probability that there will be a reversion and the greater the severity of that reversion (read: Second Great Recession) will be.
- Lawrence of Suburbia
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I'm calling the bottom NOW ... S&P up >2% today
I just now poured a ton of money into the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend Index ...
... more than one thousand dollars!! (said in Dr. Evil voice)
I just now poured a ton of money into the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend Index ...
... more than one thousand dollars!! (said in Dr. Evil voice)
Last edited by Lawrence of Suburbia on Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
74% VTHRX/8% DODWX/12% TIAA Traditional/6% SWVXX
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Wow - much luck.Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:14 pm I'm calling the bottom NOW ... S&P up >1% today
I just now poured a ton of money into the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend Index ...
... more than one thousand dollars!! (said in Dr. Evil voice)
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Good job, I am (dr.) evil too and have so far had my 401k buy an immense amount of FXAIX since I publicly called the bottom (well ok $1600 worth).Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:14 pm I'm calling the bottom NOW ... S&P up >1% today
I just now poured a ton of money into the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend Index ...
... more than one thousand dollars!! (said in Dr. Evil voice)
- Lawrence of Suburbia
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
My goal: to have a swimming pool filled with $100 bills. Or spaghetti; whichever's more rockstar-like.ronno2018 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:38 pmGood job, I am (dr.) evil too and have so far had my 401k buy an immense amount of FXAIX since I publicly called the bottom (well ok $1600 worth).Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:14 pm I'm calling the bottom NOW ... S&P up >1% today
I just now poured a ton of money into the Dow Jones U.S. Dividend Index ...
... more than one thousand dollars!! (said in Dr. Evil voice)
74% VTHRX/8% DODWX/12% TIAA Traditional/6% SWVXX
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Good thing we held at $ 181.05 I don't think $160 is too far off on the next leg down.Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm VTI needs to hold above 195 or the next floor is 188. Below that is the recent market low of 181. It can get ugly if it blows past 181.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Nice, everything I own is up bigly today, even VXUS Anyone know what happened? I love hearing the narratives
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.strummer6969 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:49 pm Nice, everything I own is up bigly today, even VXUS Anyone know what happened? I love hearing the narratives
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Thanks. That is pretty significant.Weathering wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:59 pmBank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.strummer6969 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:49 pm Nice, everything I own is up bigly today, even VXUS Anyone know what happened? I love hearing the narratives
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Plenty of people were saying that in 2011DesertMan wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:41 pmPlease read that in context of the rest of the post. Plenty of folks (including Vanguard) were already predicting that the 2020s would not deliver the kind of outsize tech-fueled and globalization-boosted equity returns that we had grown accustomed to in the 1990s-2019 period and that we were overdue for a reversion to the mean. And that’s all I’m saying.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Weathering,Weathering wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:59 pmBank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.strummer6969 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:49 pm Nice, everything I own is up bigly today, even VXUS Anyone know what happened? I love hearing the narratives
And, that won't matter when the US Fed raise the interest rate again. My prediction is this won't stop until after the election. Fighting the inflation would be first priority until after the election.
KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
And what has the IMF said about this move?strummer6969 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:02 pmThanks. That is pretty significant.Weathering wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:59 pmBank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.strummer6969 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:49 pm Nice, everything I own is up bigly today, even VXUS Anyone know what happened? I love hearing the narratives
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
True, but sustained growth returns to this degree are anomalous. That's not to see it can't continue, but that's unlikely.HomerJ wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:37 pmPlenty of people were saying that in 2011DesertMan wrote: ↑Sun Sep 25, 2022 6:41 pmPlease read that in context of the rest of the post. Plenty of folks (including Vanguard) were already predicting that the 2020s would not deliver the kind of outsize tech-fueled and globalization-boosted equity returns that we had grown accustomed to in the 1990s-2019 period and that we were overdue for a reversion to the mean. And that’s all I’m saying.
ROTH: 50% AVGE, 10% DFAX, 40% BNDW. Taxable: 50% BNDW, 40% AVGE, 10% DFAX.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
@Mods, bring back the free fall and soaring threads! We’ll behave, promise!
In all seriousness though, those threads were helpful during the Covid panic, it was one of the few places on the internet where despite the majority panicking, there was a sizable minority reminding everybody to stay the course.
We might need a place like that again soon.
In all seriousness though, those threads were helpful during the Covid panic, it was one of the few places on the internet where despite the majority panicking, there was a sizable minority reminding everybody to stay the course.
We might need a place like that again soon.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
It seems fitting that we recently passed the 30th anniversary of the trade of the century.Weathering wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:59 pm Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
- Lawrence of Suburbia
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Okay, I take my call back. Terrifying markets plunge resumes tomorrow.Weathering wrote: ↑ Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
74% VTHRX/8% DODWX/12% TIAA Traditional/6% SWVXX
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Buddy, please go see a CFP. Highly recommended.Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:39 pmOkay, I take my call back. Terrifying markets plunge resumes tomorrow.Weathering wrote: ↑ Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
- Lawrence of Suburbia
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I'm scheduled with one next month, actually.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:23 pmBuddy, please go see a CFP. Highly recommended.Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:39 pmOkay, I take my call back. Terrifying markets plunge resumes tomorrow.Weathering wrote: ↑ Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
I was kidding about the 'terrifying' part, at least for myself; I think I've enough income to get me through a truly bad 2-year patch.
74% VTHRX/8% DODWX/12% TIAA Traditional/6% SWVXX
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
FOMO to buyer's remorse in a day! That's something.Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:39 pmI'm scheduled with one next month, actually.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:23 pmBuddy, please go see a CFP. Highly recommended.Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:39 pmOkay, I take my call back. Terrifying markets plunge resumes tomorrow.Weathering wrote: ↑ Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
I was kidding about the 'terrifying' part, at least for myself; I think I've enough income to get me through a truly bad 2-year patch.
- Lawrence of Suburbia
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Something about "Consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds" ...
You actually have to know something about a subject to be consistent ... and I'm a blank slate. Too many decades in the rock'n'roll biz
74% VTHRX/8% DODWX/12% TIAA Traditional/6% SWVXX
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I think it's "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds."Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:25 pmSomething about "Consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds" ...
You actually have to know something about a subject to be consistent ... and I'm a blank slate. Too many decades in the rock'n'roll biz
Been there, done that - through all the ranges of emotions. I suspect that's how many people ended up as BHs.
- AnnetteLouisan
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
It briefly touched 180 this week, not to quibble.tesuzuki2002 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:47 pmGood thing we held at $ 181.05 I don't think $160 is too far off on the next leg down.Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm VTI needs to hold above 195 or the next floor is 188. Below that is the recent market low of 181. It can get ugly if it blows past 181.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I truly hope you survive a bad 2-year patch as your sig says you have 4 years' cash.Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:39 pm I'm scheduled with one next month, actually.
I was kidding about the 'terrifying' part, at least for myself; I think I've enough income to get me through a truly bad 2-year patch.
- Lawrence of Suburbia
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Thanks. ... the cash actually serves two purposes; to get me through a few bad years; but I'm hoping to have enough left in two years to purchase another SPIA.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:42 pmI truly hope you survive a bad 2-year patch as your sig says you have 4 years' cash.Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:39 pm I'm scheduled with one next month, actually.
I was kidding about the 'terrifying' part, at least for myself; I think I've enough income to get me through a truly bad 2-year patch.
74% VTHRX/8% DODWX/12% TIAA Traditional/6% SWVXX
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
No CFP needed this guy is prophetic, hopefully June low breaches today. Time to jump in when we get closer to -30%Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:23 pmBuddy, please go see a CFP. Highly recommended.Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:39 pmOkay, I take my call back. Terrifying markets plunge resumes tomorrow.Weathering wrote: ↑ Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
80% VOO | 20% BND+TBILL+CASH | Don't believe Nobody because Nobody knows nothin' - Anon
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
30% is a shallow recession with Fed moving to zero bound, where we are today thoughebeb wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:04 amNo CFP needed this guy is prophetic, hopefully June low breaches today. Time to jump in when we get closer to -30%Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:23 pmBuddy, please go see a CFP. Highly recommended.Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:39 pmOkay, I take my call back. Terrifying markets plunge resumes tomorrow.Weathering wrote: ↑ Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
- ruralavalon
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
More fully "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen and philosophers and divines."strummer6969 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 7:10 pmI think it's "A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds."Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 6:25 pmSomething about "Consistency is the hobgoblin of small minds" ...
You actually have to know something about a subject to be consistent ... and I'm a blank slate. Too many decades in the rock'n'roll biz
Been there, done that - through all the ranges of emotions. I suspect that's how many people ended up as BHs.
The point being the error in refusing to reconsider a prior viewpoint.
Source
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I'm pretty sure the Fed, being composed of some of our brightest folks, will work very hard to avoid the mistakes of the past. I think, with nothing concrete to base this on, that they will largely succeed.trirunner wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:20 am30% is a shallow recession with Fed moving to zero bound, where we are today thoughebeb wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:04 amNo CFP needed this guy is prophetic, hopefully June low breaches today. Time to jump in when we get closer to -30%Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:23 pmBuddy, please go see a CFP. Highly recommended.Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:39 pmOkay, I take my call back. Terrifying markets plunge resumes tomorrow.Weathering wrote: ↑ Bank of England stepped in to prop up the pound. World views this as a sign governments are going to start backstopping.
But I do wonder if the QE that we've had in the last decade or so has put us into an area where future historians will go "Yep, this point right here is where the Fed screwed up and made a bad situation worse, leading inevitably into the Great <your disaster here> of the mid 20s"
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
“Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “soft landing” and signaling that things a going to be a bit worse than they were hoping.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:36 pmI'm pretty sure the Fed, being composed of some of our brightest folks, will work very hard to avoid the mistakes of the past. I think, with nothing concrete to base this on, that they will largely succeed.trirunner wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:20 am30% is a shallow recession with Fed moving to zero bound, where we are today thoughebeb wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 9:04 amNo CFP needed this guy is prophetic, hopefully June low breaches today. Time to jump in when we get closer to -30%Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 5:23 pmBuddy, please go see a CFP. Highly recommended.Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:39 pm
Okay, I take my call back. Terrifying markets plunge resumes tomorrow.
They’re a bunch of government hacks. I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
In 2021 when Powell was talking soft landing he had some chance of success. After the Russia/Ukraine war kicked off…not so much.FireSekr wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:17 pm“Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “soft landing” and signaling that things a going to be a bit worse than they were hoping.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 12:36 pmI'm pretty sure the Fed, being composed of some of our brightest folks, will work very hard to avoid the mistakes of the past. I think, with nothing concrete to base this on, that they will largely succeed.
They’re a bunch of government hacks. I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
The Fed did get a lot more aggressive after that but with diesel prices up there was no hope of a soft landing after that.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Powell says there will be more rate hikes. I would assume those rate hikes are already priced in. Let's hope we don't need more unexpected rate hikes after this batch of expected rate hikes are implemented.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:07 pmIn 2021 when Powell was talking soft landing he had some chance of success. After the Russia/Ukraine war kicked off…not so much.FireSekr wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:17 pm“Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “soft landing” and signaling that things a going to be a bit worse than they were hoping.
They’re a bunch of government hacks. I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
The Fed did get a lot more aggressive after that but with diesel prices up there was no hope of a soft landing after that.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I really liked the "free fall and soaring" threads I did not realize cancel culture got to them (JOKE!).
Anyway this thread is not really actionable so it should get locked? Sorry I posted it! Well, at least until the market bottoms and I can be proved correct once again. LOL.
Anyway this thread is not really actionable so it should get locked? Sorry I posted it! Well, at least until the market bottoms and I can be proved correct once again. LOL.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Chart looks horrible. Abandon ship
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
He said he's going to 4.6%. That doesn't seem priced in yet.EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:12 pmPowell says there will be more rate hikes. I would assume those rate hikes are already priced in. Let's hope we don't need more unexpected rate hikes after this batch of expected rate hikes are implemented.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:07 pmIn 2021 when Powell was talking soft landing he had some chance of success. After the Russia/Ukraine war kicked off…not so much.FireSekr wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:17 pm“Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “soft landing” and signaling that things a going to be a bit worse than they were hoping.
They’re a bunch of government hacks. I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
The Fed did get a lot more aggressive after that but with diesel prices up there was no hope of a soft landing after that.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
At this time in a room full of intelligent economists / feds are decidingnigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:07 pmIn 2021 when Powell was talking soft landing he had some chance of success. After the Russia/Ukraine war kicked off…not so much.FireSekr wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:17 pm“Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “soft landing” and signaling that things a going to be a bit worse than they were hoping.
They’re a bunch of government hacks. I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
The Fed did get a lot more aggressive after that but with diesel prices up there was no hope of a soft landing after that.
..
If we should have ..
A
Hard landing
Or
A crash landing
I don't know the difference between either but both will be equally bad.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Agree Feds don't seem too bright after 8.5% inflation. For what its worth I dumped few thousand into VOO today, figure it cant go below -15% max from here since the June bottom is officially breachedFireSekr wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:17 pm“Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “soft landing” and signaling that things a going to be a bit worse than they were hoping.
They’re a bunch of government hacks. I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
80% VOO | 20% BND+TBILL+CASH | Don't believe Nobody because Nobody knows nothin' - Anon
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Are you sure? You know 4.6%. I know 4.6%. Everyone knows 4.6% Doesn't that mean it is priced in?rockstar wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:33 pmHe said he's going to 4.6%. That doesn't seem priced in yet.EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:12 pmPowell says there will be more rate hikes. I would assume those rate hikes are already priced in. Let's hope we don't need more unexpected rate hikes after this batch of expected rate hikes are implemented.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:07 pmIn 2021 when Powell was talking soft landing he had some chance of success. After the Russia/Ukraine war kicked off…not so much.FireSekr wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:17 pm“Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “soft landing” and signaling that things a going to be a bit worse than they were hoping.
They’re a bunch of government hacks. I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
The Fed did get a lot more aggressive after that but with diesel prices up there was no hope of a soft landing after that.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I don't see a 10 year treasury bond anywhere remotely near 5%. That's what I would expect with a 4.6% Fed Funds rate. Markets don't automatically reprice.EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 6:03 pmAre you sure? You know 4.6%. I know 4.6%. Everyone knows 4.6% Doesn't that mean it is priced in?rockstar wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:33 pmHe said he's going to 4.6%. That doesn't seem priced in yet.EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:12 pmPowell says there will be more rate hikes. I would assume those rate hikes are already priced in. Let's hope we don't need more unexpected rate hikes after this batch of expected rate hikes are implemented.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 5:07 pmIn 2021 when Powell was talking soft landing he had some chance of success. After the Russia/Ukraine war kicked off…not so much.FireSekr wrote: ↑Thu Sep 29, 2022 1:17 pm
“Brightest folks” ha! The same “brightest folks” who refused to acknowledge inflation was a problem for months until it spiraled out of control? Then when they final began to act they move at a snails pace raising rates, all but ensuring no possibility of a soft landing. Now the Jerome Powell is walking back his language about a “soft landing” and signaling that things a going to be a bit worse than they were hoping.
They’re a bunch of government hacks. I wouldn’t put much faith in them.
The Fed did get a lot more aggressive after that but with diesel prices up there was no hope of a soft landing after that.