Looks like he'll be giving a lot of that back today.TropikThunder wrote: ↑Mon Sep 12, 2022 12:16 pmCelebrating after four trading days from your prediction? That’s like spiking the ball on your own 10 yard line.
OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
They jokingly picked the bottom. They aren't wrong yet.Tom_T wrote: ↑Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:37 amLooks like he'll be giving a lot of that back today.TropikThunder wrote: ↑Mon Sep 12, 2022 12:16 pmCelebrating after four trading days from your prediction? That’s like spiking the ball on your own 10 yard line.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I don't think we've seen the bottom... but as the old saying goes, that opinion and a token will get you on the subway. (When they had tokens, anyway.)Californiastate wrote: ↑Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:07 amThey jokingly picked the bottom. They aren't wrong yet.Tom_T wrote: ↑Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:37 amLooks like he'll be giving a lot of that back today.TropikThunder wrote: ↑Mon Sep 12, 2022 12:16 pmCelebrating after four trading days from your prediction? That’s like spiking the ball on your own 10 yard line.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
When someone calls the bottom, sometimes all that happens is that they show their bottom.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
What are you talking about? He was already wrong from the beginning. It wasn't even the bottom when he posted. June 16th was the low YTD.Californiastate wrote: ↑Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:07 amThey jokingly picked the bottom. They aren't wrong yet.Tom_T wrote: ↑Tue Sep 13, 2022 7:37 amLooks like he'll be giving a lot of that back today.TropikThunder wrote: ↑Mon Sep 12, 2022 12:16 pmCelebrating after four trading days from your prediction? That’s like spiking the ball on your own 10 yard line.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Ha exactly. No doubt with a few regressions and support vectors on a performance chart.kelway wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 4:57 pmSeems like something I'd hear on a random YouTube channel.Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm VTI needs to hold above 195 or the next floor is 188. Below that is the recent market low of 181. It can get ugly if it blows past 181.
Already impartial now...and you have a nice day.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
*****saintsfan342000 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 13, 2022 9:57 amHa exactly. No doubt with a few regressions and support vectors on a performance chart.kelway wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 4:57 pmSeems like something I'd hear on a random YouTube channel.Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm VTI needs to hold above 195 or the next floor is 188. Below that is the recent market low of 181. It can get ugly if it blows past 181.
Last edited by Californiastate on Tue Sep 13, 2022 5:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Lol...the headlines today are amusing...Worst Day Since June 2020!
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
What exactly is stupid and emotion-driven about that headline? It was a really awful day in which market participants learned that inflation isn't rolling over. Likely to bring new lows into the discussion.9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Tue Sep 13, 2022 3:29 pmIn a world where -1% days cause the financial news media to catastrophize, a -4% day is sure to bring out maximum stupidity and emotion-driven content.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
But what if there's a second bottom?
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
VTI still hasn't breached 195. We'll see where this reset settles out at. I'm pulling for the OP if only for of all the detractors piling on. I never liked clubs with their secret handshakes and their fancy hair products.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Well first, the comment was a generic response to "the headlines today are amusing".Missing_Out wrote: ↑Tue Sep 13, 2022 4:38 pmWhat exactly is stupid and emotion-driven about that headline? It was a really awful day in which market participants learned that inflation isn't rolling over. Likely to bring new lows into the discussion.9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Tue Sep 13, 2022 3:29 pmIn a world where -1% days cause the financial news media to catastrophize, a -4% day is sure to bring out maximum stupidity and emotion-driven content.
But that specific headline is silly for two reasons: (1) "Since June 2020" is an arbitrary date only two years ago so who cares that a day was the worst since June 2020? and (2) It reveals the notorious and pervasive nature of financial news to focus on daily price movements because inexperienced investors are overly attuned to those. From June 1, 2020 to today, VTI is up 33.5%. A two year view of the market hardly even counts as long-term, but that paints quite a different picture already which you won't see mentioned in those headlines.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I always look forward to your posts, very informative!nisiprius wrote: ↑Mon Sep 05, 2022 7:13 amNo, we didn't. Where did you get that? Is that just "stuff people say" or did you read it somewhere, and, if so where?
I think this is just a Dream of a Past Golden Age.
According to my calculations from Morningstar's tabulation, I find thatSource for dates
- the average decline took 2.00 years
- the average recovery took 2.36 years
- Recoveries were faster than declines 9 out of 18 times, and slower than declines 9 out of 18 times
- As a ratio between decline and recovery time, the fastest recovery was 1/1911-1/1924, when the recovery took only 42% as long as the decline
- The slowest was 1/1937-1/1945, when the recovery took 6.38X as long as the decline, about one year down and over six years to recover.
I do have a question regarding the time periods selected.
I tend to automatically discount any market history prior to WWII. With the advent of Keynesian economics, the Federal Reserve, and the dramatic changes in the economy, including the change from goods to services, I don't see the relevance of pre-WWII data.
Why do folks continue to reference pre-WWII data, what am I missing?
Everybody should be familiar with the Great Depression as a matter of general US history as well as economic history. And the Weimar Republic's wild hyperinflation can be a cautionary tale that even developed countries can go off the rails. Given that, I just don't see the point of listing pre-WWII data in the same table as modern data.
Maybe create a second table of pre-WWII data as a historical curiosity?
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
GreenLawn wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:37 amI always look forward to your posts, very informative!nisiprius wrote: ↑Mon Sep 05, 2022 7:13 amNo, we didn't. Where did you get that? Is that just "stuff people say" or did you read it somewhere, and, if so where?
I think this is just a Dream of a Past Golden Age.
According to my calculations from Morningstar's tabulation, I find thatSource for dates
- the average decline took 2.00 years
- the average recovery took 2.36 years
- Recoveries were faster than declines 9 out of 18 times, and slower than declines 9 out of 18 times
- As a ratio between decline and recovery time, the fastest recovery was 1/1911-1/1924, when the recovery took only 42% as long as the decline
- The slowest was 1/1937-1/1945, when the recovery took 6.38X as long as the decline, about one year down and over six years to recover.
I do have a question regarding the time periods selected.
I tend to automatically discount any market history prior to WWII. With the advent of Keynesian economics, an interventionist Federal Reserve, and the dramatic changes in the economy, including the change from goods to services, I don't see the relevance of pre-WWII data.
Why do folks continue to reference pre-WWII data, what am I missing?
Everybody should be familiar with the Great Depression as a matter of general US history as well as economic history. And the Weimar Republic's wild hyperinflation can be a cautionary tale that even developed countries can go off the rails. Given that, I just don't see the point of listing pre-WWII data in the same table as modern data.
Maybe create a second table of pre-WWII data as a historical curiosity?
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Federal reserve was established in 1913. The first chair was Hamlin in 1914.GreenLawn wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 8:37 amI always look forward to your posts, very informative!nisiprius wrote: ↑Mon Sep 05, 2022 7:13 amNo, we didn't. Where did you get that? Is that just "stuff people say" or did you read it somewhere, and, if so where?
I think this is just a Dream of a Past Golden Age.
According to my calculations from Morningstar's tabulation, I find thatSource for dates
- the average decline took 2.00 years
- the average recovery took 2.36 years
- Recoveries were faster than declines 9 out of 18 times, and slower than declines 9 out of 18 times
- As a ratio between decline and recovery time, the fastest recovery was 1/1911-1/1924, when the recovery took only 42% as long as the decline
- The slowest was 1/1937-1/1945, when the recovery took 6.38X as long as the decline, about one year down and over six years to recover.
I do have a question regarding the time periods selected.
I tend to automatically discount any market history prior to WWII. With the advent of Keynesian economics, the Federal Reserve, and the dramatic changes in the economy, including the change from goods to services, I don't see the relevance of pre-WWII data.
Why do folks continue to reference pre-WWII data, what am I missing?
Everybody should be familiar with the Great Depression as a matter of general US history as well as economic history. And the Weimar Republic's wild hyperinflation can be a cautionary tale that even developed countries can go off the rails. Given that, I just don't see the point of listing pre-WWII data in the same table as modern data.
Maybe create a second table of pre-WWII data as a historical curiosity?
Now it was more decentralized in 1929 but it existed and the NY Fed tried to help fix things but overall it was passive or increased rates/tightened money supply when it should have gone the other way.
Stagflation happened after the war and knocked Keynesian economics back a step.
However, since WWII is we gained reserve currency status and replaced the British Empire as the dominant world power.
That does change the equation a bit…enough to discount everything pre-1945? Probably not but maybe.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Sideways market with volatility. Don't want to sell, but don't know what to buy.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Just stick with your policy statement. I did sort of rebalance into stocks but my overall holdings will not change much -- still very much moderate growth model and basically 75% stocks and 25% bonds.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:53 am Sideways market with volatility. Don't want to sell, but don't know what to buy.
I still say baring any odd global events the US markets are bottoming out around now and will return to a couple more years of growth.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Where have we heard that before? Just keep repeating that - eventually you'll be right.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Buy whatever that is low in your AA.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:53 am Sideways market with volatility. Don't want to sell, but don't know what to buy.
Rebalance when it reaches your rebalancing band.
In summary, this is business as usual. Nothing new.
KlangFool
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
We are long way to go to reach the bottom. At least one or two more years of pain.ronno2018 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:15 pmJust stick with your policy statement. I did sort of rebalance into stocks but my overall holdings will not change much -- still very much moderate growth model and basically 75% stocks and 25% bonds.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:53 am Sideways market with volatility. Don't want to sell, but don't know what to buy.
I still say baring any odd global events the US markets are bottoming out around now and will return to a couple more years of growth.
KlangFool
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I thought your post based upon title would have some analysis of why you are calling the bottom. Instead you mention you are making a "bet" with no further info as to why you are calling the bottom. My conclusion is that not only are you market timing but doing so based upon some sort of feelings versus any sort of analysis.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
There you go - another on the record prognostication we can check on!
This isn't just my wallet. It's an organizer, a memory and an old friend.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
1-2 years is quite optimistic!
Some folks are predicting 30 years of pain…
My guess is closer to 1-2 than 30…
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Guessing is fun!
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Well that is true! But I have enjoyed some great responses that are logical and supported by the data!SmileyFace wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:38 am I thought your post based upon title would have some analysis of why you are calling the bottom. Instead you mention you are making a "bet" with no further info as to why you are calling the bottom. My conclusion is that not only are you market timing but doing so based upon some sort of feelings versus any sort of analysis.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
You state that with such certainty. If you really believe that, then why not go to 100% t-bills or 100% short term TIPS for the next year? The answer must be that you don’t really believe you have any real knowledge about this prediction, so why do you make one with such a resolute tone?KlangFool wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:30 amWe are long way to go to reach the bottom. At least one or two more years of pain.ronno2018 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:15 pmJust stick with your policy statement. I did sort of rebalance into stocks but my overall holdings will not change much -- still very much moderate growth model and basically 75% stocks and 25% bonds.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:53 am Sideways market with volatility. Don't want to sell, but don't know what to buy.
I still say baring any odd global events the US markets are bottoming out around now and will return to a couple more years of growth.
KlangFool
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
9-5 Suited,9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:22 pmYou state that with such certainty. If you really believe that, then why not go to 100% t-bills or 100% short term TIPS for the next year? The answer must be that you don’t really believe you have any real knowledge about this prediction, so why do you make one with such a resolute tone?KlangFool wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:30 amWe are long way to go to reach the bottom. At least one or two more years of pain.ronno2018 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:15 pmJust stick with your policy statement. I did sort of rebalance into stocks but my overall holdings will not change much -- still very much moderate growth model and basically 75% stocks and 25% bonds.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:53 am Sideways market with volatility. Don't want to sell, but don't know what to buy.
I still say baring any odd global events the US markets are bottoming out around now and will return to a couple more years of growth.
KlangFool
1) I do not believe in putting 100% into anything.
2) I do not believe in T-bills or TIPS.
3) I am prepared for the market to go bottom and stay down for a very long time. Or, whatever may happen next. Hence, my prediction does not affect anything.
4) How about you? Are you prepared? Or, are you counting on your ability to predict the future?
KlangFool
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Last I looked, I have enough for 3 bottoms and about 2.5 chins.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I am doing nothing because I do not believe I can predict the future. Thus, I do not make statements like “we have a long way to go to reach the bottom” or “we have 1-2 more years of pain”.KlangFool wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:27 pm9-5 Suited,9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:22 pmYou state that with such certainty. If you really believe that, then why not go to 100% t-bills or 100% short term TIPS for the next year? The answer must be that you don’t really believe you have any real knowledge about this prediction, so why do you make one with such a resolute tone?KlangFool wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:30 amWe are long way to go to reach the bottom. At least one or two more years of pain.ronno2018 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:15 pmJust stick with your policy statement. I did sort of rebalance into stocks but my overall holdings will not change much -- still very much moderate growth model and basically 75% stocks and 25% bonds.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 9:53 am Sideways market with volatility. Don't want to sell, but don't know what to buy.
I still say baring any odd global events the US markets are bottoming out around now and will return to a couple more years of growth.
KlangFool
1) I do not believe in putting 100% into anything.
2) I do not believe in T-bills or TIPS.
3) I am prepared for the market to go bottom and stay down for a very long time. Or, whatever may happen next. Hence, my prediction does not affect anything.
4) How about you? Are you prepared? Or, are you counting on your ability to predict the future?
KlangFool
It is you who made a clear prediction. I know you have no intent to act on that prediction, so my question is why make it in the first place?
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
9-5 Suited,9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:32 pm
I am doing nothing because I do not believe I can predict the future. Thus, I do not make statements like “we have a long way to go to reach the bottom” or “we have 1-2 more years of pain”.
Then, if you are prepared for whatever may happened next, why should my prediction bothers you?
"Don't worry, be happy!"
KlangFool
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
My guess is KF, like many posters and many people in real life conversations, are not taking the time to be precise in expressing their thoughts. KF should've said, "I think there is a high probability of 1-2 years of pain."9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:32 pmI am doing nothing because I do not believe I can predict the future. Thus, I do not make statements like “we have a long way to go to reach the bottom” or “we have 1-2 more years of pain”.KlangFool wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:27 pm9-5 Suited,9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:22 pmYou state that with such certainty. If you really believe that, then why not go to 100% t-bills or 100% short term TIPS for the next year? The answer must be that you don’t really believe you have any real knowledge about this prediction, so why do you make one with such a resolute tone?KlangFool wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 6:30 amWe are long way to go to reach the bottom. At least one or two more years of pain.ronno2018 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 18, 2022 12:15 pm
Just stick with your policy statement. I did sort of rebalance into stocks but my overall holdings will not change much -- still very much moderate growth model and basically 75% stocks and 25% bonds.
I still say baring any odd global events the US markets are bottoming out around now and will return to a couple more years of growth.
KlangFool
1) I do not believe in putting 100% into anything.
2) I do not believe in T-bills or TIPS.
3) I am prepared for the market to go bottom and stay down for a very long time. Or, whatever may happen next. Hence, my prediction does not affect anything.
4) How about you? Are you prepared? Or, are you counting on your ability to predict the future?
KlangFool
It is you who made a clear prediction. I know you have no intent to act on that prediction, so my question is why make it in the first place?
May all your index funds gain +0.5% today.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
The June bottom has also been breached. At least intra-day so far.TropikThunder wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 1:49 pmVTI is down over 11% since you posted this. Good call.
Edit: Wait, no, that's wrong. The intra-day low so far has not yet breached the intra-day low from June. It just came really super close. LOL
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
The joys of visionary insight. I am calling another 20% down from here
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Multiple bottoms?
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Stack your dry powder for a bit...then DCA....
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
A month ago was just the bottom, not the bottom of the bottom. Today was really the bottom of the bottom. Well, it might be anyway. But maybe not.
ROTH: 50% AVGE, 10% DFAX, 40% BNDW. Taxable: 50% BNDW, 40% AVGE, 10% DFAX.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
-1% or even -4% is newsworthy simply because the mass media need to come up with catastrophic news to talk about.Missing_Out wrote: ↑Tue Sep 13, 2022 4:38 pmWhat exactly is stupid and emotion-driven about that headline? It was a really awful day in which market participants learned that inflation isn't rolling over. Likely to bring new lows into the discussion.9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Tue Sep 13, 2022 3:29 pmIn a world where -1% days cause the financial news media to catastrophize, a -4% day is sure to bring out maximum stupidity and emotion-driven content.
A more decent threshold for news worthy is -10%, and even then it's a non event if buy&hold and invest for long term.
LMP | Liability Matching Portfolio | safe portfolio: TIPS ladder + I-bonds + Treasuries | risky portfolio: US stocks / US REIT / International stocks
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
The dip that keeps on dipping.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
The bottom won't be reached 'til I go all-cash.
Wonder what Harry Dent is saying now?...
Edit: Harry says S&P 500 is 86% down from here! But a bond bull run is about to start. Wow.
Wonder what Harry Dent is saying now?...
Edit: Harry says S&P 500 is 86% down from here! But a bond bull run is about to start. Wow.
Last edited by Lawrence of Suburbia on Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:46 pm, edited 3 times in total.
74% VTHRX/8% DODWX/12% TIAA Traditional/6% SWVXX
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Buddy, if you feel like you need to go all-cash, I highly suggest seeing a CFP before doing so.Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:29 pm The bottom won't be reached 'til I go all-cash.
Wonder what Harry Dent is saying now?...
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Sorry, forgot the smiley! I'm still learning that Bogleheads is a pretty serious place.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:35 pmBuddy, if you feel like you need to go all-cash, I highly suggest seeing a CFP before doing so.Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:29 pm The bottom won't be reached 'til I go all-cash.
Wonder what Harry Dent is saying now?...
I'm not about to lock in losses.
Last edited by Lawrence of Suburbia on Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
74% VTHRX/8% DODWX/12% TIAA Traditional/6% SWVXX
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Omg thank you for this. This was a shocking enough call that I went and looked this guy up.Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:29 pm Wonder what Harry Dent is saying now?...
Edit: Harry says S&P 500 is 86% down from here! But a bond bull run is about to start. Wow.
Books written:
2017: DOOM!
2016: Make some DOOM! money
2014: DOOM!
2011: DOOM!
2009: DOOM!
1993: Big BOOM!
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
A subscriber born every minute ...Beensabu wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:56 pmOmg thank you for this. This was a shocking enough call that I went and looked this guy up.Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:29 pm Wonder what Harry Dent is saying now?...
Edit: Harry says S&P 500 is 86% down from here! But a bond bull run is about to start. Wow.
Books written:
2017: DOOM!
2016: Make some DOOM! money
2014: DOOM!
2011: DOOM!
2009: DOOM!
1993: Big BOOM!
74% VTHRX/8% DODWX/12% TIAA Traditional/6% SWVXX
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
What was the Churchill quote during the war? "Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning."
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Harry knows very well which side his bread is buttered on. Calling for a 20% drop isn't it.Lawrence of Suburbia wrote: ↑Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:29 pm The bottom won't be reached 'til I go all-cash.
Wonder what Harry Dent is saying now?...
Edit: Harry says S&P 500 is 86% down from here! But a bond bull run is about to start. Wow.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
That is not any more precise. That is also not actionable in any sense. So, just idle chatter, which, to be fair, is fitting well with the thread topicApeAttack wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:56 pm9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:32 pmKlangFool wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:27 pm9-5 Suited wrote: ↑Mon Sep 19, 2022 1:22 pm[..]
My guess is KF, like many posters and many people in real life conversations, are not taking the time to be precise in expressing their thoughts. KF should've said, "I think there is a high probability of 1-2 years of pain."