OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Just switched my measly $1600 a month 401K contribution from VBTLX (total bond) to FXAIX (large stock blend).
Also just reached my bond holdings goal (more or less). Almost 59.5yo. Decisions ahead -- bad idea? Is this market timing?
Also just reached my bond holdings goal (more or less). Almost 59.5yo. Decisions ahead -- bad idea? Is this market timing?
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Why aren’t you maxing out?
If it’s measly does the switch matter?
I don’t think it does and you can justify it
If it’s measly does the switch matter?
I don’t think it does and you can justify it
Mid-40’s
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
have courage in your conviction. If you truly are calling the bottom of this cycle, then you shouldn't only change you contributions, you should sell all your bonds and buy stocks. Until you do that, I won't believe you. Actually, even if you do that, I won't believe you but at least I would respect the courage of you conviction.
Yules
- ruralavalon
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Why not increase your contributions to the annual employee maximum of $26k?
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
HA! I still need to keep to my 75 stock /25 bond policy until age 87 (hopefully?). But for now at least my bet is on making up some lost gains with every 401K purchase until I no longer work...yules wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:43 pmhave courage in your conviction. If you truly are calling the bottom of this cycle, then you shouldn't only change you contributions, you should sell all your bonds and buy stocks. Until you do that, I won't believe you. Actually, even if you do that, I won't believe you but at least I would respect the courage of you conviction.
Yules
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
My monthly expenses mean I cannot contribute more! I wish I could!ruralavalon wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:44 pmWhy not increase your contributions to the annual employee maximum of $26k?
Plan is to sell the house and invest the equity in 2024 or so. Might be hard to do as a one bedroom in my west coast city rents for the same as my 3bd 3bath house mortgage...
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
VTI needs to hold above 195 or the next floor is 188. Below that is the recent market low of 181. It can get ugly if it blows past 181.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
So much going on! Ukraine, mid term elections. Who knows! I am placing my bet (very minor!) LOL.Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm VTI needs to hold above 195 or the next floor is 188. Below that is the recent market low of 181. It can get ugly if it blows past 181.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
In my opinion it's folly to try to predict stock market moves. Don't even try.ronno2018 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:52 pmSo much going on! Ukraine, mid term elections. Who knows! I am placing my bet (very minor!) LOL.Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm VTI needs to hold above 195 or the next floor is 188. Below that is the recent market low of 181. It can get ugly if it blows past 181.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
So are you keeping your AA or trying to time the market. It can’t be both.ronno2018 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:45 pmHA! I still need to keep to my 75 stock /25 bond policy until age 87 (hopefully?). But for now at least my bet is on making up some lost gains with every 401K purchase until I no longer work...yules wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:43 pmhave courage in your conviction. If you truly are calling the bottom of this cycle, then you shouldn't only change you contributions, you should sell all your bonds and buy stocks. Until you do that, I won't believe you. Actually, even if you do that, I won't believe you but at least I would respect the courage of you conviction.
Yules
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm VTI needs to hold above 195 or the next floor is 188. Below that is the recent market low of 181. It can get ugly if it blows past 181.
Good analysis.
Sets limit order for a few shares at $175
Mid-40’s
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Seems like something I'd hear on a random YouTube channel.Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm VTI needs to hold above 195 or the next floor is 188. Below that is the recent market low of 181. It can get ugly if it blows past 181.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
This can't be "the bottom of this market cycle" since it was even lower back in June and July.
Either June was the bottom, or we've yet to see the bottom of this cycle. I wouldn't be surprised either way.
Either June was the bottom, or we've yet to see the bottom of this cycle. I wouldn't be surprised either way.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I’m more interested to hear why you think this is the bottom.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
OP,
Do you have an AA of 75/25?
A) Yes, I have been buying stock to maintain my AA of 75/25 since the stock market was going down.
B) No. I "market time" based on my mood of the day.
In summary, you do not have an asset allocation.
I have an AA of 60/40. I buy whatever is under allocated with my new money.
KlangFool
Do you have an AA of 75/25?
A) Yes, I have been buying stock to maintain my AA of 75/25 since the stock market was going down.
B) No. I "market time" based on my mood of the day.
In summary, you do not have an asset allocation.
I have an AA of 60/40. I buy whatever is under allocated with my new money.
KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
+1,000.wetgear wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 4:08 pmSo are you keeping your AA or trying to time the market. It can’t be both.ronno2018 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:45 pmHA! I still need to keep to my 75 stock /25 bond policy until age 87 (hopefully?). But for now at least my bet is on making up some lost gains with every 401K purchase until I no longer work...yules wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:43 pmhave courage in your conviction. If you truly are calling the bottom of this cycle, then you shouldn't only change you contributions, you should sell all your bonds and buy stocks. Until you do that, I won't believe you. Actually, even if you do that, I won't believe you but at least I would respect the courage of you conviction.
Yules
KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Yes Klang, a bit of a trolly post, I am basically rebalancing but convincing myself I am a savvy investor!KlangFool wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 5:06 pm OP,
Do you have an AA of 75/25?
A) Yes, I have been buying stock to maintain my AA of 75/25 since the stock market was going down.
B) No. I "market time" based on my mood of the day.
In summary, you do not have an asset allocation.
I have an AA of 60/40. I buy whatever is under allocated with my new money.
KlangFool
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I hope it is not the bottom. I need more opportunity for Tax Loss Harvest before the end of the year.ronno2018 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 5:15 pmYes Klang, a bit of a trolly post, I am basically rebalancing but convincing myself I am a savvy investor!KlangFool wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 5:06 pm OP,
Do you have an AA of 75/25?
A) Yes, I have been buying stock to maintain my AA of 75/25 since the stock market was going down.
B) No. I "market time" based on my mood of the day.
In summary, you do not have an asset allocation.
I have an AA of 60/40. I buy whatever is under allocated with my new money.
KlangFool
KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
- whodidntante
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Predictions, I got.
I predict more pain ahead, for those who own stocks or bonds or can be harmed by inflation.
I predict more pain ahead, for those who own stocks or bonds or can be harmed by inflation.
- nisiprius
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Of course it is market timing.
How can taking an investment action based on your prediction of where we are in the market cycle be anything else than market timing?
Why is it important to you to not to say that it is market timing?
Last edited by nisiprius on Sat Sep 03, 2022 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Anything is possible. Currently, my purchases are scheduled. Wish I had a crystal ball. That would make investing more fun.Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm VTI needs to hold above 195 or the next floor is 188. Below that is the recent market low of 181. It can get ugly if it blows past 181.
Last edited by Wiggums on Sat Sep 03, 2022 5:36 pm, edited 2 times in total.
"I started with nothing and I still have most of it left."
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Investors already factored in potentially higher interest rates and oil prices. Market will go sideways. How much longer don't know. But don't think its going to get much worse.
Last edited by smooth_rough on Mon Sep 12, 2022 12:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I've already contributed $27K this year. Did I overcontribute?Why not increase your contributions to the annual employee maximum of $26k?
Roth Conversion Disorder.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
So the question is if “calling the bottom” and changing your investments from bonds to stocks is “market timing.”
If it’s not, then what in the world would be?
If it’s not, then what in the world would be?
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
AKA "everyone" Me included.whodidntante wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 5:23 pm Predictions, I got.
I predict more pain ahead, for those who own stocks or bonds or can be harmed by inflation.
Cheers
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Interest rates is one factor, but may not be the only one. I guess we will find out if there is a credit problem, etc. I wouldn’t be surprised if people are sitting on cash. If so, it will be great gor us when they buy stock.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 5:34 pm Investors already factored in potentiall higher interest rates and oil prices. Market will go sideways for few more months. How much longer don't know. But don't think its going to get much worse.
"I started with nothing and I still have most of it left."
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
The last time I remember someone making a post just to say they were calling the bottom was on September 4th, 2008:
The bear market is over
(He later suggested that he be judged, not by how close he came to the bottom in terms of stock prices, but in time, i.e. he was only about six months off.)
The bear market is over
VFINX, Vanguard 500 index fund:I'm going on the record. I think the July 15 lows will hold.
If you haven't rebalanced in a while, it's time to dust off your spreadsheet and figure out how much in bonds you need to sell and how much in stocks to buy.
(He later suggested that he be judged, not by how close he came to the bottom in terms of stock prices, but in time, i.e. he was only about six months off.)
Last edited by nisiprius on Sat Sep 03, 2022 7:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Not unless you are younger than 50.Count de Monet wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 5:37 pmI've already contributed $27K this year. Did I overcontribute?Why not increase your contributions to the annual employee maximum of $26k?
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Look at your Vanguard YTD under performance tab.
June 16, 2022 was the bottom, it was June and we are similar to April/May as of this week, Sept 2, 2022.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I think June was the bottom. I saw a very clear change in risk appetite for the most beaten down sectors like the small caps in the Nasdaq. We have had ups and downs since then, but I think that will prove to be the bottom. We may retest the lows the way things have been going recently.
*puts on tin foil cap*
IMHO, the big money got frustrated that they missed out on the lows as it was retail that was buying in June. So, big money is currently trying to shake down retail investors and get them to panic sell to them.
This also coincided with the Fed needing to talk tough on inflation. The Fed wants the market to go down. I think big money decided to try and use this as an opportunity to take money from retail. The recent Fed talk is not anything new. We get a .75 hike and then a .25-.75 hike. Then we go into a recession Q1 or Q2 of 2023 and Fed starts easing again. Market starts to rally if not already started to head up before then in anticipation. Probably looking at a relatively soft landing in Q4 2023.
*puts on tin foil cap*
IMHO, the big money got frustrated that they missed out on the lows as it was retail that was buying in June. So, big money is currently trying to shake down retail investors and get them to panic sell to them.
This also coincided with the Fed needing to talk tough on inflation. The Fed wants the market to go down. I think big money decided to try and use this as an opportunity to take money from retail. The recent Fed talk is not anything new. We get a .75 hike and then a .25-.75 hike. Then we go into a recession Q1 or Q2 of 2023 and Fed starts easing again. Market starts to rally if not already started to head up before then in anticipation. Probably looking at a relatively soft landing in Q4 2023.
Retired in 2022 at the age of 46. Living off of dividends.
- arcticpineapplecorp.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions |
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I was calling it’s a bottom every week since 1999 I started investing in Index Funds when I get free cash to invest.
On the other hand market full of surprises short term. Just don’t get frustrated if your bottom cycle will be stretched well into next year.
Just stay the course and keep investing without guessing .
On the other hand market full of surprises short term. Just don’t get frustrated if your bottom cycle will be stretched well into next year.
Just stay the course and keep investing without guessing .
Last edited by Ed 2 on Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
That was my first thought too. Only on BH can 19.2k/yr be considered measly.
May all your index funds gain +0.5% today.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Well... if you've hit your fixed income allocation goal, then I guess if you switch your contributions to stock only rather than bond only then either:
- you'll be somewhat maintaining your AA as stock prices go down
or
- your AA will be getting all out of whack as stock prices go up
As long as you plan on rebalancing periodically if stock prices go up, then it sounds fine.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I also thought june/july was bottom when market started recovering rapidly quite a few percentage and I moved some more to VOO. Now it looks like until feds stop their aggressive hikes market may continue sliding down few more months at least so maybe another 10-15%.
80% VOO | 20% BND+TBILL+CASH | Don't believe Nobody because Nobody knows nothin' - Anon
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
VOO hit 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance and moved back down to 50 SMA which lacked support, and broke through, whether or not it will defy downward sentiment, is anybody's guess.ebeb wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:40 pm I also thought june/july was bottom when market started recovering rapidly quite a few percentage and I moved some more to VOO. Now it looks like until feds stop their aggressive hikes market may continue sliding down few more months at least so maybe another 10-15%.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
It’s anyone’s guess because all of what you said is nonsense. VOO doesn’t “struggle” to hit targets, it doesn’t “resist” changes, it doesn’t “break through” like some wild animal.retire2022 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:43 pmVOO hit 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance and moved back down to 50 SMA which lacked support, and broke through, whether or not it will defy downward sentiment, is anybody's guess.ebeb wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:40 pm I also thought june/july was bottom when market started recovering rapidly quite a few percentage and I moved some more to VOO. Now it looks like until feds stop their aggressive hikes market may continue sliding down few more months at least so maybe another 10-15%.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I don't know what the markets will actually do, but I think we're in for a world wide recession, world wide food shortage. Worldwide energy crisis. Chinese realestate collapse, Chinese bank failures are piling up. Russia, China, and India are now in the Ukraine with "joint training". Middle east is getting ready for war, EU is going after each other. Poland just told Germany they now owe them over 1 trillion dollars for WW2 reparations. [Political comment removed by Moderator Flyer24]. Energy companies in the US are saying we WILL have blackouts this winter and some states have already said they do expect to run out of natural gas in some reguards. Mass starvation is beginning in African countries and NOW we have the first higher ups in large US companies jumping from buildings.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... tower.html
I think we're in for something worse then 2000 or 2008 personally.
I'm not saying to pull money out of the market, but I'd recommend getting prepaired and having some extra beers to drink during our downtime.
I'm not stopping my 401k, IRA, or HSA. 80% VT 20% VSIAX
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... tower.html
I think we're in for something worse then 2000 or 2008 personally.
I'm not saying to pull money out of the market, but I'd recommend getting prepaired and having some extra beers to drink during our downtime.
I'm not stopping my 401k, IRA, or HSA. 80% VT 20% VSIAX
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I am waiting for 190 because it is likely my rebalancing band will be breached at that point. Unless bonds also drop significantly.Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm VTI needs to hold above 195 or the next floor is 188. Below that is the recent market low of 181. It can get ugly if it blows past 181.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
I am saving up some cash for a house purchase. Maybe lump sum into stocks once it drops more?
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Too bad I didn't sell in January, so I don't have money to buy now.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
It actually does and you should learn the basics of options, put/call ratios, dealer hedging and gamma before you dismiss it as voodoo. None of this really matters if you are a buy and hold investor, but these forces do affect the markets in the short term.TropikThunder wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:07 pmIt’s anyone’s guess because all of what you said is nonsense. VOO doesn’t “struggle” to hit targets, it doesn’t “resist” changes, it doesn’t “break through” like some wild animal.retire2022 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:43 pmVOO hit 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance and moved back down to 50 SMA which lacked support, and broke through, whether or not it will defy downward sentiment, is anybody's guess.ebeb wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:40 pm I also thought june/july was bottom when market started recovering rapidly quite a few percentage and I moved some more to VOO. Now it looks like until feds stop their aggressive hikes market may continue sliding down few more months at least so maybe another 10-15%.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
Winning small bet wont change overall portfolio much.. Right?ronno2018 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:52 pmSo much going on! Ukraine, mid term elections. Who knows! I am placing my bet (very minor!) LOL.Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm VTI needs to hold above 195 or the next floor is 188. Below that is the recent market low of 181. It can get ugly if it blows past 181.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
You're under the assumption that all investing is passive. It's not. It's not important that you believe it because others do and they act accordingly. Whether they are successful against the market averages is another matter. Money looks to follow momentum.TropikThunder wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 11:07 pmIt’s anyone’s guess because all of what you said is nonsense. VOO doesn’t “struggle” to hit targets, it doesn’t “resist” changes, it doesn’t “break through” like some wild animal.retire2022 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:43 pmVOO hit 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) resistance and moved back down to 50 SMA which lacked support, and broke through, whether or not it will defy downward sentiment, is anybody's guess.ebeb wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:40 pm I also thought june/july was bottom when market started recovering rapidly quite a few percentage and I moved some more to VOO. Now it looks like until feds stop their aggressive hikes market may continue sliding down few more months at least so maybe another 10-15%.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
There is always "So much going on". Always. There are always a dozen perfectly valid reasons why the market should go down, and a dozen perfectly valid reasons why the market should go up. Always.ronno2018 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:52 pmSo much going on! Ukraine, mid term elections. Who knows! I am placing my bet (very minor!) LOL.Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm VTI needs to hold above 195 or the next floor is 188. Below that is the recent market low of 181. It can get ugly if it blows past 181.
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Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
AFAIK Jack Bogle never said that events don't sway the market.JDave wrote: ↑Sun Sep 04, 2022 2:20 pmThere is always "So much going on". Always. There are always a dozen perfectly valid reasons why the market should go down, and a dozen perfectly valid reasons why the market should go up. Always.ronno2018 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:52 pmSo much going on! Ukraine, mid term elections. Who knows! I am placing my bet (very minor!) LOL.Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:48 pm VTI needs to hold above 195 or the next floor is 188. Below that is the recent market low of 181. It can get ugly if it blows past 181.
Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle
This is my thinking as well. Either way, in a couple of years from now the market will be decently higher than the previous highs.jh wrote: ↑Sat Sep 03, 2022 9:24 pm I think June was the bottom. I saw a very clear change in risk appetite for the most beaten down sectors like the small caps in the Nasdaq. We have had ups and downs since then, but I think that will prove to be the bottom. We may retest the lows the way things have been going recently.
*puts on tin foil cap*
IMHO, the big money got frustrated that they missed out on the lows as it was retail that was buying in June. So, big money is currently trying to shake down retail investors and get them to panic sell to them.
This also coincided with the Fed needing to talk tough on inflation. The Fed wants the market to go down. I think big money decided to try and use this as an opportunity to take money from retail. The recent Fed talk is not anything new. We get a .75 hike and then a .25-.75 hike. Then we go into a recession Q1 or Q2 of 2023 and Fed starts easing again. Market starts to rally if not already started to head up before then in anticipation. Probably looking at a relatively soft landing in Q4 2023.
“Doing well with money has little to do with how smart you are and a lot to do with how you behave.” - Morgan Housel