Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

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smitcat
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by smitcat »

toomanysidehustles wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 7:25 am
willthrill81 wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:35 pm
vineviz wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:37 am
just frank wrote: Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:15 am Totally sensible. I think for folks with large cargo space needs or heavy towing, ICE is gonna be the way to go for a long time. Less so 'vanity trucks' in my neighborhood used for single passenger commuting. LOL.

I understand why Ford is starting with the F-150 Lightning, but I think its a vanity truck, or maybe for a contractor with low mileage and no towing requirements, but it is not a 1:1 drop in replacement for the F-150. If Ford tried to sell me on the idea it was, I could imagine having buyers remorse and being ticked off.

I probably wouldn't find it surprising if I'd thought about it a little harder, but I was interested to discover that (as of the latest available data) 60% of U.S. households with an EV also had a non-electric SUV, truck, or minivan and that most households who had both an EV and an ICE vehicle put more miles on the ICE vehicle.

https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2021 ... ouseholds/
That's very interesting. Thanks for the link. It also noted that "households with an EV are almost four times less likely to be a single-vehicle household."

It makes perfect sense that an ICE would be used over an EV for long trips, but it seems to me that such driving only represents the minority of the miles driven by most households. It appears that the authors were also perplexed by the finding that ICE vehicles are driven more miles than EVs in households with both.

At any rate, it seems very likely that with existing technology, most single-vehicle households will continue to prefer an ICE, and most households with an EV will also have an ICE. The technological limitations of EVs' range have certainly not been easy to resolve.
This is interesting, I think of our neighbors next door with a Model Y and a Subaru Ascent. Whenever they (all 4 of them) are in the car together they are in the Ascent.
We had the same tendencies when we had both available - we would typically use the EV for more outings but they were all short in length. Most every trip that was longer or required towing a trailer or high load was an ICE.
The mileage totals went to the ICE category.
The trip count totals went to the EV.
YMMV
Valuethinker
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Valuethinker »

squirrel1963 wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:07 am
Valuethinker wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:35 am
GT99 wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:39 pm Most EV batteries will last well over 200k miles.
Because EVs are so new, I suspect the "statistics" around them are not a good predictor. The technology is changing very fast, and so is the infrastructure associated with them.
Tesla is not a good marker. Neither is Nissan Leaf. They were early entrants, and technology has moved along by leaps and bounds.
Yes statistical data about early models and early production is not a good predictor, but when it comes to batteries I would argue that they probably provide a worst case. Current high-mileage Tesla Model X and S are mostly from 5-8 years old vehicles which used standard 16850 lithium batteries. The manufacturing technology has improved by leaps and bounds and even though my 2018 Model 3 still uses 16850 batteries, they are more advanced simply because Tesla/Panasonic have gotten a lot better at manufacturing them in the Nevada Gigafactory plant. Current Teslas use 2170 lithium batteries which have been designed by Tesla and optimized for EV use, and now the 4680 form factor is being scaled up. Each of these generations of battery is increasingly better, so looking at statistics of 200k+ miles 5-8 year old batteries and batteries pack I can reasonably assume that current generations will have a longer battery life. This of course true for GM and Volkswagen as well, the current GM Bolt batteries are better by leaps and bounds.
BYD and CATL are also making incredible progress with new chemistries, for instance Li-Fe-P (iron phosphate) as well as of course traditional Li-Co-Mn-Ni. Recyling of EV batteries should mean lower cost for the expensive elements, especially Co Mn Ni. Concerns about Li are overblown IMHO, we have enough Lithium deposits in Nevada alone to satisfy most of forecasted US demand. Europe has also large deposits in Germany. Right now prices are crazy but hopefully they will go down as supply increases.
All interesting stuff, and I nod. I was making a general reference to the fact that since there were so few EVs 8 years ago, it's very hard to make assertions about them in 8 years time.
Valuethinker wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:39 pm Grocery stores? WalMart pioneered the use of low gasoline prices to get customers into its parking lot. In fact in Britain it is known as "the Asda Effect" on petrol prices (WalMart owned Asda Food Stores)-- an actual fall in petrol prices within several miles of an Asda-- empirically demonstrated.
They will do the same with chargers, in time. The longer the customer "dwell time" in your parking lot, the more likelihood they will buy stuff.
It's interesting you mention this and I wonder if there are statistics of whether the Tesla supercharging network is good for the shopping malls and business and restaurants that have it in the same parking lots. Some food chains are very happy of having fast chargers installed.
I was, oddly, thinking of Level 2 chargers. Superchargers are expensive to install - so supermarkets might not be the best place for them. On the other hand, WalMarts tend to favour highway locations? So maybe I am wrong.
Valuethinker wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:35 am Expect it in California first, of course. As always. "The future is here. It's just not evenly distributed". In all things, California seems about 20 years ahead of the rest of us. Maybe only 10.
California in 2021 saw 12.5% of new car registrations as EV. (all these stats are for passenger vehicles only).
Oregon Washington and Hawaii followed at 7%, with every other state being far behind.
For comparison California alone is above EU average, but the US as a whole is behind EU average.
Current best EV market is Norway, with more than 50% of new registrations, followed by other Scandinavian countries.

So clearly Scandinavia, California / Oregon / Washington / Hawaii and further ahead than everybody else in US or EU in the S adoption curve, and Norway is expected to be the first country in the world to reach market saturation, i.e. the third and last step in the S curve.

Presumably mass adoption really begins when a product (EV in this case) becomes cheap enough and practical enough that most people will think of it being a better solution than existing technology, although of course different market segments will move at different speeds. For the US I think the critical market segments (especially outside the coasts) will be large SUVs and of course pickup trucks, which are now very much in early adoption phase (Rivian R1T, Ford F0-150-E aka Lightning).

The US love of super-sized vehicles ... you are probably right. It seems to me to be the worst sort of EV.

OTOH there's a huge potential market for electric vans? The kind my plumber drives. He visits 3-4 locations in a day all concentrated probably within a 10-15 mile radius of his home just outside of London. He has his own driveway so can just plug it in at night. Fuel is an irksome business cost as are repairs to brakes etc.
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squirrel1963
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by squirrel1963 »

Valuethinker wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 7:40 am I was, oddly, thinking of Level 2 chargers. Superchargers are expensive to install - so supermarkets might not be the best place for them. On the other hand, WalMarts tend to favour highway locations? So maybe I am wrong.
Definitely Level 2 chargers will be far more ubiquitous simply because of the price and they make sense in places where you spend typically more time, but really they make sense everywhere. If you know your car is happily charging you might be in less of a hurry to stop shopping, especially where charging is free to you (right now free charging can be found commonly at movie theaters, but is relatively rare otherwise).
I think fast DC chargers and superchargers make sense in large malls or anywhere where people like to go and especially near food.

Tesla seems to like installing Superchargers near specific chains like Fred Meyer and Target, I have seen them quite a bit in the west coast. I don't know if it's because Fred Meyer and Target like Tesla customers shopping at their places of simply because Tesla thinks that Tesla owners are more likely to use Fred Meyer and Target as opposed to Walmart (I don't recall seeing superchargers near walmart).
Other common places where you'll find Tesla Superchargers are near restaurant chains like Big Bear (California & Oregon), Red Robin and they are commonly located (or co-located) as well at discount outlet malls, I have charged at both Oregon and Washington discount outlet malls. Other common places are near fast food and some gas stations. Again I am not sure exactly how the picking is done or what the commercial arrangements are. All in all the most common factor I've seen is places where there are a lot of shopping and food opportunities (including groceries) in fairly large parking lots. I don't claim US knowledge of course, my knowledge is mostly limited to the west coast and a little bit along I-90. Best place ever to charge for me is West Yellowstone near the park entrance. I hope Tesla will build more superchargers near national parks.
Valuethinker wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:35 am The US love of super-sized vehicles ... you are probably right. It seems to me to be the worst sort of EV.

OTOH there's a huge potential market for electric vans? The kind my plumber drives. He visits 3-4 locations in a day all concentrated probably within a 10-15 mile radius of his home just outside of London. He has his own driveway so can just plug it in at night. Fuel is an irksome business cost as are repairs to brakes etc.
Oh yeah absolutely. Any kind of business that has a predictable localized usage pattern and keeps vehicles in the same place overnight is basically the ideal case for EV, you only really need to charge overnight at slow rate so it's practical and cheap:
* your plumber
* UPS & Amazon - Amazon has invested more than $500 million in Rivian and placed an order for 100,000 last mile delivery trucks
* local contractors and repair services
* USPS - mail delivery is also ideal if the daily mileage is less than 100-200 miles and can use L2 charging overnight
* interestingly enough: school busses. right now many manufacturers havily subside the cost to school district. this is challenging though because it takes a lof of power to slow charge overnight

In all these cases it's all about business and costs, and businesses can easily afford to spend two times as much money on an EV and initial costs for L2 charging and wait 5-10 years to recover costs.

Another really interesting thing is that some police departments in the US have chosen Tesla for some of their patrol cars. Again same use case. Also very fuel efficient, on a gas vehicle the officer will keep the engine running for electric power and AC, an EV will be more energy efficient.
You obiously expect the city of Fremont California (where Tesla plant is) to buy Tesla:
https://www.fremontpolice.gov/community ... l-vehicles
But you probably don't expect Lynn Creek Missouri to buy Tesla:
https://www.ky3.com/2022/04/01/linn-cre ... sla-fleet/
TIt's a very small percentage of PD who do this and in many places it's pilot programs. The biggest buyer I think it's New York City PD (both Ford Mach-E and Tesla): https://electrek.co/2021/12/30/nypd-buy ... epartments.

We'll see in a few years if they remain a blip on the radar screen or if more PDs will start buying them
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GT99
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by GT99 »

CletusCaddy wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 10:30 pm
GT99 wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:39 pm One thing a lot of folks don't seem to consider is that charging stations at most grocery stores and such is free (at least it is where I am - not sure if that's the norm elsewhere).
There is one charging network that does this. They are called Volta, and their stock price is down 77% since IPO exactly one year ago. So I’d say the free charging thing probably isn’t a sustainable business model.
Not quite. Property owners can choose to pay the fees so charging is free to customers. I've used free ChargePoint and EVGo stations, and probably others - I don't typically pay close attention to the brand. The 3 grocery stores closest to my house all have free charging (1 is Volta). There may be regional differences - that I can't speak to. Tesla Destination chargers are also free for Tesla owners (not Superchargers unless you are grandfathered in). As I mentioned, the last 3 offices I worked in all had free charging.
hunoraut
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by hunoraut »

Chicken and egg. Chargers follow the car. Car follows the charger.

If you want to see what a charging infrastructure looks like when the cars are more prolific, look at Oslo.

L2 chargers are available on parking lots business and municipal, randomly on street parking, at shopping centers and even single-shops, at parking stalls indoors and out for apartments (its urban living, remember).

Mixed with these are L3 fast chargers, so upwards of 250kW even from non-Tesla stations.

Simple fact is that people spend 30min-1hr in a car each day. For the remaining 23 hours its parked somewhere — and there where its parked its being juiced up.

Map is 2.5mi * 2.5mi in dimension:

Image

Keep in mind that while 90% of new sales are electric, as a total mix of all roadgoing cars, only ~15% of all are electric. So (1) imagine what its like when that reaches parity (2) so much for fear of “what if we overload the grid” scenario, for the fastest growing market in the orld.
GT99
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by GT99 »

psteinx wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:58 pm
GT99 wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:39 pmIn the US, 0.03% of cars make it to 300k miles: https://www.autoblog.com/photos/photos- ... milestone.. 400k is completely irrelevant.
I suspect that stat is bogus.

Your link, in turn, links to this.

Scroll down for the methodology. They're only looking at cars that were sold in the given year (2019). And they don't say, but I'd suspect that they exclude many/most private party sales and focus on dealer sales. Dealers don't typically resell 200K+ or 300K+ mile cars, but individuals do use cars that long. Perhaps fewer hit the high #s in the population as a whole than are claimed or discussed here on BH, but it happens.
Fair - I was struggling to find data about number of vehicles reaching 400k miles and didn't look closely at it enough. I think the point still holds - 400k vehicles are extremely rare. Most vehicle never get to that number. Most that do will have had multiple major repairs. It's a bizarre argument against EVs given that the overwhelming majority of drivers will never hold a car to high enough mileage for it to matter. Not to mention, by 400k miles, most ice drivers would have spent enough on just oil changes to cover the cost of a battery replacement! :D
mervinj7
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by mervinj7 »

hunoraut wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:42 am
Map is 2.5mi * 2.5mi in dimension:

Image

Keep in mind that while 90% of new sales are electric, as a total mix of all roadgoing cars, only ~15% of all are electric. So (1) imagine what its like when that reaches parity (2) so much for fear of “what if we overload the grid” scenario, for the fastest growing market in the orld.
That's a very impressive map! What app is that? I'll like to compare with our city in CA.
GT99
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by GT99 »

7eight9 wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 10:15 pm
GT99 wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:39 pm One thing a lot of folks don't seem to consider is that charging stations at most grocery stores and such is free (at least it is where I am - not sure if that's the norm elsewhere). Charging at the office my last 3 jobs (consulting) was also free (my current job is $0.50 per hour the first 3 hours, then like $4 or something each hour after that).

I do have the HOV lane benefit on my commute - it probably saves me 5 minutes each way. Not huge, but certainly nice.
I'm guessing you don't live in Las Vegas. I've never seen a charging station at a grocery store (free or otherwise). No place I've worked had charging (not to say that none do but I'm pretty sure it would be an outlier here).

HOV lane access (on I-15) is dependent on the number of live people in the car --- https://abcnews.go.com/US/hearse-nevada ... d=64114764
I don't, but I'll be there next week! I live the southeast. Most office buildings where I am have charging stations now. Heck, I spent a year working at a place in a rural location, and they had 6 charging stations - and this was in 2018.

I can't speak to Vegas, but most non-EV drivers probably don't even notice them when they are in shopping center parking lots. They are often to the side or in the back, and they generally aren't designed to stick out as prominently as a Tesla Supercharger.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by hunoraut »

mervinj7 wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:50 am
Keep in mind that while 90% of new sales are electric, as a total mix of all roadgoing cars, only ~15% of all are electric. So (1) imagine what its like when that reaches parity (2) so much for fear of “what if we overload the grid” scenario, for the fastest growing market in the orld.
That's a very impressive map! What app is that? I'll like to compare with our city in CA.
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psteinx
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by psteinx »

GT99 wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:50 amIt's a bizarre argument against EVs given that the overwhelming majority of drivers will never hold a car to high enough mileage for it to matter. Not to mention, by 400k miles, most ice drivers would have spent enough on just oil changes to cover the cost of a battery replacement! :D
I think a lot of folks think by analogy/category.

Folks who've used battery-powered tools know that the batteries get worse fairly quickly, and with much lighter use than a car gets (maybe 10 hours/year instead of 300+).

And early Nissan Leafs had big battery problems. I think some early Prius's did too. Can't quite remember, but was this also part of the problem with GM's EV1 experiment ~25 years ago?

Anyways, Tesla seems to mostly have the problem in hand, and yeah, it's not likely a problem for a new Tesla buyer. I'd want to do my research with other brands though.

GM's batteries in their Volts/Bolts had a different problem - they caught fire.
billaster
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

psteinx wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:14 pm And early Nissan Leafs had big battery problems. I think some early Prius's did too. Can't quite remember, but was this also part of the problem with GM's EV1 experiment ~25 years ago?

Anyways, Tesla seems to mostly have the problem in hand, and yeah, it's not likely a problem for a new Tesla buyer. I'd want to do my research with other brands though.

GM's batteries in their Volts/Bolts had a different problem - they caught fire.
Nissan LEAF probably has the longest history with lithium battery EVs, selling hundreds of thousands before the Tesla Model 3 came out. Nissan changed over to the so-called "lizard battery" to better handle heat over 8 years ago. Those 8-year-old cars with original batteries are still on the road. Some are more than 12 years old which pre-dates the Tesla Model S.
psteinx
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by psteinx »

billaster wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:00 pm
psteinx wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 1:14 pm And early Nissan Leafs had big battery problems. I think some early Prius's did too. Can't quite remember, but was this also part of the problem with GM's EV1 experiment ~25 years ago?

Anyways, Tesla seems to mostly have the problem in hand, and yeah, it's not likely a problem for a new Tesla buyer. I'd want to do my research with other brands though.

GM's batteries in their Volts/Bolts had a different problem - they caught fire.
Nissan LEAF probably has the longest history with lithium battery EVs, selling hundreds of thousands before the Tesla Model 3 came out. Nissan changed over to the so-called "lizard battery" to better handle heat over 8 years ago. Those 8-year-old cars with original batteries are still on the road. Some are more than 12 years old which pre-dates the Tesla Model S.
How much charge do the batteries in typical older generation Leafs (from hot climates) retain?
Californiastate
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Californiastate »

hunoraut wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:42 am Chicken and egg. Chargers follow the car. Car follows the charger.

If you want to see what a charging infrastructure looks like when the cars are more prolific, look at Oslo.

L2 chargers are available on parking lots business and municipal, randomly on street parking, at shopping centers and even single-shops, at parking stalls indoors and out for apartments (its urban living, remember).

Mixed with these are L3 fast chargers, so upwards of 250kW even from non-Tesla stations.

Simple fact is that people spend 30min-1hr in a car each day. For the remaining 23 hours its parked somewhere — and there where its parked its being juiced up.

Map is 2.5mi * 2.5mi in dimension:

Image

Keep in mind that while 90% of new sales are electric, as a total mix of all roadgoing cars, only ~15% of all are electric. So (1) imagine what its like when that reaches parity (2) so much for fear of “what if we overload the grid” scenario, for the fastest growing market in the orld.
What? Where are 90% of new vehicle sales electric?
billaster
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

psteinx wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:02 pm How much charge do the batteries in typical older generation Leafs (from hot climates) retain?
The LEAF has a 8-year, 100,000 mile warranty on the battery if it falls below 75% of original capacity so I would assume that any with problems in the Phoenix area back then would have been replaced with the newer lizard battery. This warranty exceeds, for example, the 5-year, 60,000 miles for a Camry.
stoptothink
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by stoptothink »

billaster wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:20 pm
psteinx wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:02 pm How much charge do the batteries in typical older generation Leafs (from hot climates) retain?
The LEAF has a 8-year, 100,000 mile warranty on the battery if it falls below 75% of original capacity so I would assume that any with problems in the Phoenix area back then would have been replaced with the newer lizard battery. This warranty exceeds, for example, the 5-year, 60,000 miles for a Camry.
Federal law requires automakers to ensure EV and hybrid batteries for at least eight years or 100,000 miles. In California, the law is 10yrs and 150k miles.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by oxothuk »

billaster wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:20 pm
psteinx wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:02 pm How much charge do the batteries in typical older generation Leafs (from hot climates) retain?
The LEAF has a 8-year, 100,000 mile warranty on the battery if it falls below 75% of original capacity so I would assume that any with problems in the Phoenix area back then would have been replaced with the newer lizard battery. This warranty exceeds, for example, the 5-year, 60,000 miles for a Camry.
Pretty sure that warranty is for 65% of original capacity after 8 years/100K miles. At least that's true for my 2021 Leaf.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by psteinx »

Here's a study on real-life Leaf results in the UKUS [EDIT - US I think].

The UK is a cool climate, so, IIUC, should be much more foregiving on batteries than much of the US.

There are a lot of tables and readers can analyze for themselves. But the final chart estimates that at 56,000 miles, a new (2020) Leaf with an original range of 170 miles would be down to 113 (again, in the cool-weather UK, presumably). That's not reassuring. Perhaps too pessimistic, but...

====

EDIT - oops, it's a UK website, but looking at it again, it appears their dataset is likely mostly/entirely from the US. So, potentially hot weather issues...
Last edited by psteinx on Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:20 pm, edited 2 times in total.
billaster
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

oxothuk wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:56 pm
billaster wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:20 pm
psteinx wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:02 pm How much charge do the batteries in typical older generation Leafs (from hot climates) retain?
The LEAF has a 8-year, 100,000 mile warranty on the battery if it falls below 75% of original capacity so I would assume that any with problems in the Phoenix area back then would have been replaced with the newer lizard battery. This warranty exceeds, for example, the 5-year, 60,000 miles for a Camry.
Pretty sure that warranty is for 65% of original capacity after 8 years/100K miles. At least that's true for my 2021 Leaf.
I believe it is 9 out of 12 segments on the battery capacity gauge, which would be 75%.
rmdashrfsplat
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by rmdashrfsplat »

Californiastate wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:17 pm

What? Where are 90% of new vehicle sales electric?
Norway
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by mrb09 »

psteinx wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:02 pm Here's a study on real-life Leaf results in the UKUS [EDIT - US I think].

The UK is a cool climate, so, IIUC, should be much more foregiving on batteries than much of the US.

There are a lot of tables and readers can analyze for themselves. But the final chart estimates that at 56,000 miles, a new (2020) Leaf with an original range of 170 miles would be down to 113 (again, in the cool-weather UK, presumably). That's not reassuring. Perhaps too pessimistic, but...

====

EDIT - oops, it's a UK website, but looking at it again, it appears their dataset is likely mostly/entirely from the US. So, potentially hot weather issues...
From the study, "Our study uses data submitted by Leaf owners from 2013 into the second half of 2017". There was a significant battery improvement for the Leaf in 2018. I think most Leaf batter degradation issues were from prior to 2018.
psteinx
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by psteinx »

mrb09 wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:59 pm
psteinx wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:02 pm Here's a study on real-life Leaf results in the UKUS [EDIT - US I think].

The UK is a cool climate, so, IIUC, should be much more foregiving on batteries than much of the US.

There are a lot of tables and readers can analyze for themselves. But the final chart estimates that at 56,000 miles, a new (2020) Leaf with an original range of 170 miles would be down to 113 (again, in the cool-weather UK, presumably). That's not reassuring. Perhaps too pessimistic, but...

====

EDIT - oops, it's a UK website, but looking at it again, it appears their dataset is likely mostly/entirely from the US. So, potentially hot weather issues...
From the study, "Our study uses data submitted by Leaf owners from 2013 into the second half of 2017". There was a significant battery improvement for the Leaf in 2018. I think most Leaf batter degradation issues were from prior to 2018.
Sure, but this most recent discussion of Leaf issues started with my comment that there were a variety of negative experiences for early adopters (and those using batteries for other purposes) that likely contribute to even current buyers of EVs being wary on the topic.
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squirrel1963
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by squirrel1963 »

rmdashrfsplat wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:10 pm
Californiastate wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:17 pm

What? Where are 90% of new vehicle sales electric?
Norway
It's difficult to get good data from trade magazines because their coverage is not consistent and presumably most BH actually want to see official statistics, but anyway here is the data:

Norway in January 2022 is 84% for pure electric BEV
Norway in March 2022 is 92% (86% pure electric BEV, 6% plugin hybrid PHEV -- this reporting is standard practice)

Sorry for the inconsistency, this is why trade magazines are tough to source.

This is data from European Union from 2020 published in 2021: https://www.eea.europa.eu/ims/new-regis ... c-vehicles
In 2020, the share of electric vehicles (BEVs and PHEVs) in national new car registrations increased in all countries (EU-27, Iceland, Norway and the United Kingdom) compared with 2019. The highest shares were found in Norway (75%), Iceland (46%), Sweden (33%) and the Netherlands (28%).

Germany, France and the United Kingdom accounted for about 60% of BEV registrations, with the numbers tripling compared with 2019. In Norway, BEVs accounted for 54% of new car sales in 2020, increasing from 30% in 2018. In some other European countries, however, the percentage of BEV registrations remained below 1% of the total fleet. PHEV sales were highest in Sweden (23%), and Norway and Iceland (20%).
Overall 2020 EV new sales in Europe (including Scandinavia, Iceland and UK): 10%

Germany, France and UK are the 800-lb gorilla with 60% of overall EU BEV registrations by volume.

Norway has basically reach saturation (last step of S adoption curve I believe). Overall ICE vehicles currently in circulation is greater than EV of course, and replacement rate for cars is almost for sure much lower than for instance what we saw for similar disruptive technologies like (VHS tape --> DVD ; land line --> cellular phones), but now it's just a matter of time before Norway becomes 90% electric for all vehicle currently in circulation.

California (not sure if 2020 or 2022) at 12.5% is better than average Europe, but far behind Norway.
OR WA HI are all at 7%.
The rest of the country is single digits with some being < 1%.

So the "big 4" (my nickname for C.O.W.H.) are very much early adoption I think. In Europe Spain, Italy and Greece are early adoption I think.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

psteinx wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:02 pm There are a lot of tables and readers can analyze for themselves. But the final chart estimates that at 56,000 miles, a new (2020) Leaf with an original range of 170 miles would be down to 113 (again, in the cool-weather UK, presumably). That's not reassuring. Perhaps too pessimistic, but...

====

EDIT - oops, it's a UK website, but looking at it again, it appears their dataset is likely mostly/entirely from the US. So, potentially hot weather issues...
There's something fishy about that study, perhaps in its data collection methods. The results indicate that almost every LEAF battery would have failed before the 8-year/100K mile warranty limit. So Nissan would be replacing thousands of batteries for almost every LEAF ever manufactured. That is not the case so something must be wrong with the data.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by RCL »

Living in a (most of the year) hot climate area, we use our cars air conditioning a lot.
I don't see much, if any, miles per gallon difference in my ICE vehicle with the air on or off.

I don't know how air conditioning works in an EV. is there a motor that turns the compressor?

Curious to know how much, if any, reduction of range you EV users have seen when air conditioning is used?
Maybe also tell us about the effect of using the heater in the winter times.

Do you think Tesla will make a vehicle that doesn't have that ridiculous (to me anyway) computer like monitor
that sticks out from the dash area?
I have ridden in a family members' Model 3 & Model Y, and can't even cross my right leg without my foot hitting the monitor...and I have short legs!
Making the car a few inches wider would probably solve the problem?
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by stoptothink »

RCL wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 4:35 pm

Curious to know how much, if any, reduction of range you EV users have seen when air conditioning is used?
Maybe also tell us about the effect of using the heater in the winter times.

Inclement weather and heating and cooling has a significant effect on EV range:

"A 2019 AAA study of five models of electric cars found that 20-degree weather can shorten an EV's driving range by 41% when the heater is on, a combination of that draw and the temperature challenges we saw above. On the other end, the AAA study found that range dropped by around 17% on a 95-degree day, largely due to use of the air conditioning system."

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/elec ... ping-tips/

Annoyingly, we find that using the AC in our hybrid has a much greater impact on efficiency than it does in our ICE. Not enough long-term experience in an EV to provide a personal anecdote.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by squirrel1963 »

RCL wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 4:35 pm Living in a (most of the year) hot climate area, we use our cars air conditioning a lot.
I don't see much, if any, miles per gallon difference in my ICE vehicle with the air on or off.

I don't know how air conditioning works in an EV. is there a motor that turns the compressor?

Curious to know how much, if any, reduction of range you EV users have seen when air conditioning is used?
Maybe also tell us about the effect of using the heater in the winter times.

Do you think Tesla will make a vehicle that doesn't have that ridiculous (to me anyway) computer like monitor
that sticks out from the dash area?
I have ridden in a family members' Model 3 & Model Y, and can't even cross my right leg without my foot hitting the monitor...and I have short legs!
Making the car a few inches wider would probably solve the problem?
Yeah at the end you need an electric motor to compress the refrigerant, so it's essentially identical AC in house or heat pump. Actually cooling is very effcient regardless, but heating is terrible for most EV, except Teslas and a few other which use heat pump.
I saw a big difference in cold weather consumption between 2018 Model 3 with AC and 2022 Model Y with heat pump. Model 3 and Model Y are essentially identical in almost everything that counts (battery pack, electric motors, cooling/heating, BMS, entertainment computer and autopilot computer.

Cooling is very efficient and actually the batteries really like being at 80F-100F, so there is much less need of battery cooling / preheating, and all the excess energy can go to cool the cabin. Tesla uses the same heat pump for both.
So last month I was driving thru the California Central valley at 100F-110F and "fuel efficiency" was actually a little bit better than being at

I haven't driven the Model Y enough in winter, but from what I have seen there is very little difference if you are using a heat pump.

Model 3 in winter has to use electric resistors which are incredibly inefficient, so basically you should expect a range reduction of 30% it it is very cold. This is by far in my opinion the biggest downside of an EV which does not use a heat pump. Anyone who would like to buy an EV in cold climate (Washington is mild climate, I'm talking maybe Minnesota, North Dakota and definitely every Canadian province) should seriously consider an EV with a heat pump unless (s)he is willing to accept a large range reduction. This is my opinion, but I'm sure serious EV enthusiats will say it doesn't matter because 90% of new sales in Norway are EV, but Norway is not the US, and Norwegian's mindset is basically "Why would I get a gasoline car?", we are not even remotely close.

As far as leg room, comfort and cabin you have seen yourself that a lot of people really dislike Tesla spartan look. Old Model S and Model X actually didn't have this look and were more "mainstream", all new Teslas have the spartan look of Model 3 & Model Y.
A lot of people really love the spartan look (me), some people don't care too much, a lot people really dislike it and buy other vehicles instead like Ford Mach-E. I am not really sure about comfort and leg room to be honest, Model S / X are much bigger and wider, but of course are also much pricier

Rivian R1T off-road pick up truck is much bigger but it's also pricier :-) Rivian is actually losing money with their current pricing, but they don't care, Amazon dumped more $500M in Rivian, I think they got more than $1B cash last few years. Rivian will also build 100,000 delivery minivans for Amazon so they'll probably recover a lot of the R1T losses.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

GT99 wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 11:50 am
psteinx wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:58 pm
GT99 wrote: Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:39 pmIn the US, 0.03% of cars make it to 300k miles: https://www.autoblog.com/photos/photos- ... milestone.. 400k is completely irrelevant.
I suspect that stat is bogus.

Your link, in turn, links to this.

Scroll down for the methodology. They're only looking at cars that were sold in the given year (2019). And they don't say, but I'd suspect that they exclude many/most private party sales and focus on dealer sales. Dealers don't typically resell 200K+ or 300K+ mile cars, but individuals do use cars that long. Perhaps fewer hit the high #s in the population as a whole than are claimed or discussed here on BH, but it happens.
Fair - I was struggling to find data about number of vehicles reaching 400k miles and didn't look closely at it enough. I think the point still holds - 400k vehicles are extremely rare. Most vehicle never get to that number. Most that do will have had multiple major repairs. It's a bizarre argument against EVs given that the overwhelming majority of drivers will never hold a car to high enough mileage for it to matter. Not to mention, by 400k miles, most ice drivers would have spent enough on just oil changes to cover the cost of a battery replacement! :D
Let's see if an EV can beat the Volvo P1800 for mileage. It's currently over 3 million.

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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

Most people in Norway live in the south, and Oslo has a winter climate rather similar to Philadelphia. Cooler in the summer bc of the ocean.

The high adoption has been driven by incentives.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by squirrel1963 »

just frank wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:16 pm Most people in Norway live in the south, and Oslo has a winter climate rather similar to Philadelphia. Cooler in the summer bc of the ocean.

The high adoption has been driven by incentives.
Oh no doubt. Also gasoline is very expensive, electricity is cheap (nearly all hydropower I think) and the country is small, so different problems and different solutions. Financial considerations aside, different trade offs of what is practical and convenient explain the huge difference of overall outlook on EV vs ICE.

Any kind of comparison must take all of this into account.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

Running air conditioning has the potential to majorly affect gas mileage in ICE vehicles. According to the EPA, up to -25% in some circumstances. This makes sense as ICE and EV air conditioning systems both need to dedicate similar amounts of energy to decrease cabin temperatures: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/hotweather.shtml

Cold weather affects gas mileage more by prolonging the warm up period for the engine, but since ICE vehicles waste so much energy from fuel as heat, there are more opportunities to capture the waste heat to warm up the cabin--cranking up the heat doesn't affect gas mileage nearly as much on ICE vehicles as EVs.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by squirrel1963 »

cmr79 wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 6:40 pm Running air conditioning has the potential to majorly affect gas mileage in ICE vehicles. According to the EPA, up to -25% in some circumstances. This makes sense as ICE and EV air conditioning systems both need to dedicate similar amounts of energy to decrease cabin temperatures: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/hotweather.shtml

Cold weather affects gas mileage more by prolonging the warm up period for the engine, but since ICE vehicles waste so much energy from fuel as heat, there are more opportunities to capture the waste heat to warm up the cabin--cranking up the heat doesn't affect gas mileage nearly as much on ICE vehicles as EVs.
Makes perfect sense, the physics of heat transfer are the same, just the physics of drag coefficient which impacts range.
It's just that on an ICE no really cares about the range, or at any rate no one will turn heating or cooling for this reason, and no has range anxiety on account of decreased efficiencies.
The heat pump is incredibly more efficient for heating just like a heat pump in a home in winter is so much more efficient than baseboard heaters (which are just resistors -- you burn energy instead of pumping it around).
I don't believe a heat pump is needed an ICE CAR.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Valuethinker »

stoptothink wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 4:41 pm
RCL wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 4:35 pm

Curious to know how much, if any, reduction of range you EV users have seen when air conditioning is used?
Maybe also tell us about the effect of using the heater in the winter times.

Inclement weather and heating and cooling has a significant effect on EV range:

"A 2019 AAA study of five models of electric cars found that 20-degree weather can shorten an EV's driving range by 41% when the heater is on, a combination of that draw and the temperature challenges we saw above. On the other end, the AAA study found that range dropped by around 17% on a 95-degree day, largely due to use of the air conditioning system."

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/elec ... ping-tips/

Annoyingly, we find that using the AC in our hybrid has a much greater impact on efficiency than it does in our ICE. Not enough long-term experience in an EV to provide a personal anecdote.
Hyundai Ioniq 5

Eastern Canada climate (think New England). So think 10-20 degrees F.

About -20% on range. Probably not all the 2019 models above had heat pump heaters?* An HP heater is 2x-3x more efficient than electric bar.

* It was only available with the extra options pack on the BMW i3 when I checked. As an example.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Valuethinker »

squirrel1963 wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:12 am
I don't believe a heat pump is needed an ICE CAR.
Not needed for heating.

However for cooling you have one - the Air Conditioner is a form of Heat Pump.

I am old enough to remember when they sold cars without AC. My guess is now days it's not even an option-- just standard equipment? Not many places in North America you'd want to go a summer without AC in your car.

AC will lower your gas mileage by at least 10%- -that was what Consumer Reports always warned. OTOH opening the window at highway speeds has a similar effect due to drag.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by vineviz »

Valuethinker wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 3:12 am I am old enough to remember when they sold cars without AC. My guess is now days it's not even an option-- just standard equipment? Not many places in North America you'd want to go a summer without AC in your car.
I still own a car that shipped without A/C (a 1994 Honda Civic del Sol VTEC). I used it that way for a few years, but when we moved to Houston in 1999 the installation kits were no longer available so we found a combination of Acura Integra and Honda Civic sedan parts that worked.

Except the dealer installed the AC condenser fan backwards ....
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by manuvns »

if the Gas vehicle is built right with fuel efficient engine and you can get it below market value probably it's the best option , the reliability of battery and cost of relacement is still a concern for me .
Thanks!
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Valuethinker »

manuvns wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:02 am if the Gas vehicle is built right with fuel efficient engine and you can get it below market value probably it's the best option , the reliability of battery and cost of relacement is still a concern for me .
Battery. I really can't see that it's a big concern. It's one of the better proven aspects of an EV. And it's easy to test for (just run enough charge-discharge cycles).

The issue is whether the range works for you. Also whether your part of North America has enough reliable charging points (a big problem from all I can gather). For most people, most of the time, the charging is probably not a big issue *if* they can provide for a Level 2 charger at home, and they have at least access to a Level 1 charger at work (ie enough to give the car a charge to get home).

Also at the moment EVs cost more than "comparable" ICE cars. To buy. Total Cost of Ownership is more comparable although Depreciation is something of an unknown. One reason EVs are moving faster in Europe is much higher gasoline prices. In China I think gasoline prices are similar to US levels but ofc incomes are generally lower.

It's one of those situations where there is likely to be a much greater range of vehicles available -- with better technology and probably more competitive pricing -- in 3 years time than now.

It's certainly a time where it is rational to consider a hybrid vehicle instead. Or indeed some pure ICE vehicles.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

Valuethinker wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:45 am Also at the moment EVs cost more than "comparable" ICE cars. To buy.
This is simply not true, at least in the U.S. Chevy Bolt and Nissan LEAF are around the same MSRP price as the comparable Toyota Camry. They are significantly lower in price after applying federal and state subsidies.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by psteinx »

billaster wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:40 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:45 am Also at the moment EVs cost more than "comparable" ICE cars. To buy.
This is simply not true, at least in the U.S. Chevy Bolt and Nissan LEAF are around the same MSRP price as the comparable Toyota Camry. They are significantly lower in price after applying federal and state subsidies.
I very much doubt that a Nissan LEAF is comparable with a Toyota Camry.

It's one thing to say that a Tesla 3 has comparable utility to a similar Toyota/Honda. And it's also possible to say that there's a (small) niche for LEAFs as *short* commuter cars. But LEAFs as broadly substitutable with ICE Toyondas and Teslas is a stretch...
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by hunoraut »

vineviz wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:47 am
I still own a car that shipped without A/C (a 1994 Honda Civic del Sol VTEC).
Si? In good condition that things probably a collectible now.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by vineviz »

hunoraut wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:01 pm
vineviz wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:47 am
I still own a car that shipped without A/C (a 1994 Honda Civic del Sol VTEC).
Si? In good condition that things probably a collectible now.
It's the DOHC (B16A) version, and finding parts for it sometimes feels like it's more of a collectible than it actually is. Unfortunately it was rear-ended while it was parked on a city street, which took a lot of body work to (mostly) fix. Still fun to drive, though.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

psteinx wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:52 pm
billaster wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:40 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:45 am Also at the moment EVs cost more than "comparable" ICE cars. To buy.
This is simply not true, at least in the U.S. Chevy Bolt and Nissan LEAF are around the same MSRP price as the comparable Toyota Camry. They are significantly lower in price after applying federal and state subsidies.
I very much doubt that a Nissan LEAF is comparable with a Toyota Camry.

It's one thing to say that a Tesla 3 has comparable utility to a similar Toyota/Honda. And it's also possible to say that there's a (small) niche for LEAFs as *short* commuter cars. But LEAFs as broadly substitutable with ICE Toyondas and Teslas is a stretch...
The LEAF and Bolt are comparable in size and trim levels to the Camry. If you are talking only about range, then there is no EV that matches the range of a Camry at any price, even a $100,000 Tesla. If that is what was meant by *comparable* then no EV is *comparable* and the original claim is rather meaningless.

If instead *comparable* means of similar size and trim as ICE cars and usefulness to millions of families, then a Bolt or LEAF is of comparable price to a Camry, especially as a second car. Price of EVs is not a limiting factor in their adoption, which is what the original statement implied.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by stoptothink »

billaster wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:18 pm
psteinx wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:52 pm
billaster wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:40 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:45 am Also at the moment EVs cost more than "comparable" ICE cars. To buy.
This is simply not true, at least in the U.S. Chevy Bolt and Nissan LEAF are around the same MSRP price as the comparable Toyota Camry. They are significantly lower in price after applying federal and state subsidies.
I very much doubt that a Nissan LEAF is comparable with a Toyota Camry.

It's one thing to say that a Tesla 3 has comparable utility to a similar Toyota/Honda. And it's also possible to say that there's a (small) niche for LEAFs as *short* commuter cars. But LEAFs as broadly substitutable with ICE Toyondas and Teslas is a stretch...
The LEAF and Bolt are comparable in size and trim levels to the Camry. If you are talking only about range, then there is no EV that matches the range of a Camry at any price, even a $100,000 Tesla. If that is what was meant by *comparable* then no EV is *comparable* and the original claim is rather meaningless.

If instead *comparable* means of similar size and trim as ICE cars and usefulness to millions of families, then a Bolt or LEAF is of comparable price to a Camry, especially as a second car. Price of EVs is not a limiting factor in their adoption, which is what the original statement implied.
Until there are cheaper options in the EV market, this simply is not true for a lot of buyers. You can compare the cheapest EVs to a camry, but there are A LOT of ICE vehicles that are cheaper than a camry. Maybe it would be better to say that price is not a limiting factor in adoption for some (maybe even most) car buyers.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

Huh. I have owned a 2003 Camry, and 2013 LEAF (Gen 1) and a 2017 and 2022 Bolt EV. So maybe I can have an opinion on this one. LOL.

All three are effectively 'the same size', bc they can all seat three kids or two adults in the back comfortably. But not three adults comfortably for a longer trip.

All have similar cargo space, with some difference in utility bc two of them are hatches. I have loaded all three with a family of 4 and suitcases many times.

Honestly, the Bolt feels bigger than the other two, bc it has a higher seating position, halfway between a sedan and an SUV. It also has better headroom front and back compared to the other two. And better legroom than the Camry tbh.

The cabin of the LEAF was a little tighter than the Camry IIRC.

For driving, the LEAF and Camry had comparable 0-60 times (like 8+ seconds), but the LEAF was faster 0-30 due to higher torque and FELT waaaay sportier.

The Bolts are 6.3 seconds 0-60, and make the LEAF seem pokey, and made the Camry feel almost unbearable.

I think the Camry is the longest of the three, since it has a long hood and a trunk. The Bolt is the shortest. The proportions of the Bolt make it look tiny in photos. In person, you can see that it is BIG. The Bolt is narrower than the other two, which might be hard for very wide riders.

We got the Camry in 2005 (used) and I think the engine was messed up in a way that several shops couldn't diagnose/fix. We got about 28 mpg on the highway, versus 33 rated. And the check engine light came on a lot, and it was in the shop a lot. Probably spent several $k on engine work over 10 years above normal maintenance. The Camry also 'shifted rough' enough to break traction with the ground sometimes, so you had to take turns really easy.

The three EVs were new, in warranty, and in 5+ years of driving, were zero scheduled maintenance or repairs.

My ex-wife's Dad was the Toyota lover, and had a string of Camry's for decades. He had lots of problems with them (a low mileage driver) including having rats eat the wiring harness. Ended up spending thousands on expensive repairs, but refused to ever buy a different maker.

-------
Also:

We had a 94 Corolla before those cars, and it was a lemon and also bought used. Spent thousands keeping it running, and as it approached 170,000 miles, it was getting about 12 mpg in city driving, probably due to a broken tstat?

I also put 40k miles on a 2015 Chevy Volt, bought used, and is has been 100% problem free. Some scheduled fluid changes and a new 12V battery at 45k miles and 7 years, but otherwise no maintenance other than tires, wipers, and an oil change every 18 mos or so.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by oxothuk »

:|
billaster wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:07 pm
oxothuk wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:56 pm
billaster wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:20 pm
psteinx wrote: Mon Aug 08, 2022 2:02 pm How much charge do the batteries in typical older generation Leafs (from hot climates) retain?
The LEAF has a 8-year, 100,000 mile warranty on the battery if it falls below 75% of original capacity so I would assume that any with problems in the Phoenix area back then would have been replaced with the newer lizard battery. This warranty exceeds, for example, the 5-year, 60,000 miles for a Camry.
Pretty sure that warranty is for 65% of original capacity after 8 years/100K miles. At least that's true for my 2021 Leaf.
I believe it is 9 out of 12 segments on the battery capacity gauge, which would be 75%.
The bars are not equal size. The top bar is lost after 15% battery degradation, then the next several bars represent about 7% each. The drop from 9 bars to 8 happens at around 35% degradation (65% of original). That’s when the warranty kicks in.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

stoptothink wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:50 pm Until there are cheaper options in the EV market, this simply is not true for a lot of buyers. You can compare the cheapest EVs to a camry, but there are A LOT of ICE vehicles that are cheaper than a camry. Maybe it would be better to say that price is not a limiting factor in adoption for some (maybe even most) car buyers.
I picked the Camry for comparison because it is the most popular 4-door sedan sold in the U.S. So the point is that there are available EVs that are equivalent in size, trim and price as the most popular car in the country.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

oxothuk wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 2:40 pm The bars are not equal size. The top bar is lost after 15% battery degradation, then the next several bars represent about 7% each. The drop from 9 bars to 8 happens at around 35% degradation (65% of original). That’s when the warranty kicks in.
Got it.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by stoptothink »

billaster wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 2:51 pm
stoptothink wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 1:50 pm Until there are cheaper options in the EV market, this simply is not true for a lot of buyers. You can compare the cheapest EVs to a camry, but there are A LOT of ICE vehicles that are cheaper than a camry. Maybe it would be better to say that price is not a limiting factor in adoption for some (maybe even most) car buyers.
I picked the Camry for comparison because it is the most popular 4-door sedan sold in the U.S. So the point is that there are available EVs that are equivalent in size, trim and price as the most popular car in the country.
That's all well and good, but that's not necessarily relevant to the statement you made. Yes, the price of the cheapest EVs is still a barrier to adoption for some buyers - period. I'm pretty well-off compared to the general public and have bought several new cars (including one 3 months ago), but have never spent as much on a car as a base model camry. While I could afford an EV, the price of them is still a barrier for me. You don't think cost is a barrier for those who legitimately can't afford more than a Chevrolet Spark, Mitsubishi Mirage, Nissan Versa, etc.? That likely will change in the future, but it's a factor now.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

stoptothink wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 3:04 pm
billaster wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 2:51 pm I picked the Camry for comparison because it is the most popular 4-door sedan sold in the U.S. So the point is that there are available EVs that are equivalent in size, trim and price as the most popular car in the country.
That's all well and good, but that's not necessarily relevant to the statement you made. Yes, the price of the cheapest EVs is still a barrier to adoption for some buyers - period. I'm pretty well-off compared to the general public and have bought several new cars (including one 3 months ago), but have never spent as much on a car as a base model camry. While I could afford an EV, the price of them is still a barrier for me. You don't think cost is a barrier for those who legitimately can't afford more than a Chevrolet Spark, Mitsubishi Mirage, Nissan Versa, etc.? That likely will change in the future, but it's a factor now.
Right, there are no new $13,000 EVs available right now, which would be a barrier to some buyers. There are also some buyers who can't afford a new Spark or Mirage or Versa either, so I'm not sure what your point is. Either way, you are talking about a relatively small percentage of car buyers.

But there are used EVs in that $13,000 price range (although inflated a bit temporarily like all used cars). A used EV is a good, cheap way to find out if the characteristics of EVs fit your lifestyle without risking a lot of money on something that may not fit.

But getting back to the original claim, some people seem to be stuck on the idea that the only EVs are expensive Teslas for high income earners due to the Musk hype. The point is that there are affordable choices for the average family in the U.S right now. Given that the average car price is $43,000 and that you can buy an EV for less than half that after subsidies, I would conclude that EVs are quite affordable for most families, if they chose to have an EV.
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squirrel1963
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by squirrel1963 »

Valuethinker wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 3:12 am
squirrel1963 wrote: Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:12 am
I don't believe a heat pump is needed an ICE CAR.
Not needed for heating.

However for cooling you have one - the Air Conditioner is a form of Heat Pump.

I am old enough to remember when they sold cars without AC. My guess is now days it's not even an option-- just standard equipment? Not many places in North America you'd want to go a summer without AC in your car.

AC will lower your gas mileage by at least 10%- -that was what Consumer Reports always warned. OTOH opening the window at highway speeds has a similar effect due to drag.
Yup, both AC and heat pump are identical for the cooling side, a heat pump can run in the reverse direction and heat as well.
They are both heat pumps, the names "AC" and "heat pump" are just marketing terms, somewhat annoying if you ask me because the physics is the same.
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just frank
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

The average price of a new car in the US is $47,000 in 2022.

The median is probably a little lower, but there are currently a lot of non-Tesla EVs that cost less than that, even fully loaded with tech and features.

My loaded 2022 Bolt is available for $31k, 2/3rds of the US average new car price.

The LEAF (which I don't like) is even cheaper.

The Niro and Kona are a bit higher than the Bolt after rebates.

The base Model 3 is around the AVERAGE price of a US car.

Can we please stop saying that EVs are too expensive for US folks to buy? When there are a ton below the average purchase price?
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