For instance, we're on a tier plan. Tier 1 is 0.32 per kwh and Tier 2 is 0.39 per kwh. We haven't been into tier 3 for years. It's the least expensive plan per our usage times. Our AC starts cooling the house at 5pm. The EV-2 rate is a time of use plan. Off peak is 0.25 per kwh but peak is 0.56 per kwh. It's above 90F from July 1 through September. Leaving the AC off until 9pm isn't an option.CletusCaddy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:39 pmWhy would you assume this? Most people use less electricity from midnight-3pm, and more electricty from 3pm-midnight. That is the whole reason why time of use plans incentivize usage the way they do.aquaman wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:13 pm A lot of power companies also have seasonal rates, so you have to account for those. Likewise, with a number of power companies, switching to an electric vehicle rate may give you an amazing off-peak rate, but increase the peak rate. If so, switching to such a rate may or may not save you money, but even if it does, just quoting the low off-peak rate wouldn't be accurate, as you'd still be paying the higher peak rate, which would eat into the savings.
So the better assumption to make is that switching from a flat rate plan to a time of use plan should be cost neutral. And then you add the EV charging cost which is the only incremental cost.
Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
-
- Posts: 1516
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:52 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
Most homeowners have very little opportunity to shift power usage. Putting on your washing machine/dryer and dishwasher at night can help, but for a lot of people this accounts for a tiny portion of their power consumption. In our case, for instance, we have a house with multiple a/c's, and a swimming pool and we work from home a ton, so there is no meaningful opportunity to shift usage.CletusCaddy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:39 pmWhy would you assume this? Most people use less electricity from midnight-3pm, and more electricty from 3pm-midnight. That is the whole reason why time of use plans incentivize usage the way they do.aquaman wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:13 pm A lot of power companies also have seasonal rates, so you have to account for those. Likewise, with a number of power companies, switching to an electric vehicle rate may give you an amazing off-peak rate, but increase the peak rate. If so, switching to such a rate may or may not save you money, but even if it does, just quoting the low off-peak rate wouldn't be accurate, as you'd still be paying the higher peak rate, which would eat into the savings.
So the better assumption to make is that switching from a flat rate plan to a time of use plan should be cost neutral. And then you add the EV charging cost which is the only incremental cost.
Regardless, you're never going to be able to shift 100% of your usage to the off peak hours. Hence, the reason that just quoting the low off-peak rate wouldn't be accurate, as you'd still be paying the higher peak rate on some of your residual usage, which would eat into the savings.
-
- Posts: 585
- Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2020 10:09 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
For me and my driving needs, I think it is still a decade away at least if not longer. I routinely pull a 5,000-10,000 pound trailer with my diesel truck, and one common trip is to a city 6:45 minutes away (Park City, UT) from N. Colorado to do work. The best/fastest way there is on I-80 through Wyoming. I can leave my house at 5am and arrive before noon in my truck with one fill-up if pulling a trailer, zero stops in my truck with no trailer and make it there 30 minutes faster. It would literally take all day for a F150 Lightning, Rivian, etc. and good luck if it is a windy day and you blow through "range" prematurely. No thanks. Time is money to me.
The below video puts things in perspective and is comical for those thinking EV's are the answer to "progress" for the average working American that pulls a trailer. And there are more than us than you think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEtStnltwOo
- just frank
- Posts: 1933
- Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:13 pm
- Location: Philly Metro
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
Totally sensible. I think for folks with large cargo space needs or heavy towing, ICE is gonna be the way to go for a long time. Less so 'vanity trucks' in my neighborhood used for single passenger commuting. LOL.toomanysidehustles wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:02 amFor me and my driving needs, I think it is still a decade away at least if not longer. I routinely pull a 5,000-10,000 pound trailer with my diesel truck, and one common trip is to a city 6:45 minutes away (Park City, UT) from N. Colorado to do work. The best/fastest way there is on I-80 through Wyoming. I can leave my house at 5am and arrive before noon in my truck with one fill-up if pulling a trailer, zero stops in my truck with no trailer and make it there 30 minutes faster. It would literally take all day for a F150 Lightning, Rivian, etc. and good luck if it is a windy day and you blow through "range" prematurely. No thanks. Time is money to me.
The below video puts things in perspective and is comical for those thinking EV's are the answer to "progress" for the average working American that pulls a trailer. And there are more than us than you think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEtStnltwOo
I understand why Ford is starting with the F-150 Lightning, but I think its a vanity truck, or maybe for a contractor with low mileage and no towing requirements, but it is not a 1:1 drop in replacement for the F-150. If Ford tried to sell me on the idea it was, I could imagine having buyers remorse and being ticked off.
- just frank
- Posts: 1933
- Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:13 pm
- Location: Philly Metro
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
I have a smart meter, and my utility has years of records of my hourly electric usage. I can log in, press a button, and they will compute if a TOU plan would be cheaper or more expensive for me, to the dollar. The usual rate structure is neutral for the average user. I would save a small amount with no load shifting. So I didn't switch.aquaman wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 7:30 amMost homeowners have very little opportunity to shift power usage. Putting on your washing machine/dryer and dishwasher at night can help, but for a lot of people this accounts for a tiny portion of their power consumption. In our case, for instance, we have a house with multiple a/c's, and a swimming pool and we work from home a ton, so there is no meaningful opportunity to shift usage.CletusCaddy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:39 pmWhy would you assume this? Most people use less electricity from midnight-3pm, and more electricty from 3pm-midnight. That is the whole reason why time of use plans incentivize usage the way they do.aquaman wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:13 pm A lot of power companies also have seasonal rates, so you have to account for those. Likewise, with a number of power companies, switching to an electric vehicle rate may give you an amazing off-peak rate, but increase the peak rate. If so, switching to such a rate may or may not save you money, but even if it does, just quoting the low off-peak rate wouldn't be accurate, as you'd still be paying the higher peak rate, which would eat into the savings.
So the better assumption to make is that switching from a flat rate plan to a time of use plan should be cost neutral. And then you add the EV charging cost which is the only incremental cost.
Regardless, you're never going to be able to shift 100% of your usage to the off peak hours. Hence, the reason that just quoting the low off-peak rate wouldn't be accurate, as you'd still be paying the higher peak rate on some of your residual usage, which would eat into the savings.
I set up my EV to charge at low demand times (meaning my EV is now mostly nuclear powered, BTW). That's 2500 kWh in off peak demand.
If I had a newer water heater, I could set it to run at night too, shifting another 1000 kWh or so.
My Ecobee thermostat can do heat/cold banking (with adjustable comfort impacts), but I need to upgrade the firmware to try it.
If I shifted all those three loads, I could save >$500/year.
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
Exactly - our first goal for an EV was a pickup, we ended up with an ICE due to the towing and hauling limits.just frank wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:15 amTotally sensible. I think for folks with large cargo space needs or heavy towing, ICE is gonna be the way to go for a long time. Less so 'vanity trucks' in my neighborhood used for single passenger commuting. LOL.toomanysidehustles wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:02 amFor me and my driving needs, I think it is still a decade away at least if not longer. I routinely pull a 5,000-10,000 pound trailer with my diesel truck, and one common trip is to a city 6:45 minutes away (Park City, UT) from N. Colorado to do work. The best/fastest way there is on I-80 through Wyoming. I can leave my house at 5am and arrive before noon in my truck with one fill-up if pulling a trailer, zero stops in my truck with no trailer and make it there 30 minutes faster. It would literally take all day for a F150 Lightning, Rivian, etc. and good luck if it is a windy day and you blow through "range" prematurely. No thanks. Time is money to me.
The below video puts things in perspective and is comical for those thinking EV's are the answer to "progress" for the average working American that pulls a trailer. And there are more than us than you think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEtStnltwOo
I understand why Ford is starting with the F-150 Lightning, but I think its a vanity truck, or maybe for a contractor with low mileage and no towing requirements, but it is not a 1:1 drop in replacement for the F-150. If Ford tried to sell me on the idea it was, I could imagine having buyers remorse and being ticked off.
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
just frank wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:15 am Totally sensible. I think for folks with large cargo space needs or heavy towing, ICE is gonna be the way to go for a long time. Less so 'vanity trucks' in my neighborhood used for single passenger commuting. LOL.
I understand why Ford is starting with the F-150 Lightning, but I think its a vanity truck, or maybe for a contractor with low mileage and no towing requirements, but it is not a 1:1 drop in replacement for the F-150. If Ford tried to sell me on the idea it was, I could imagine having buyers remorse and being ticked off.
I probably wouldn't find it surprising if I'd thought about it a little harder, but I was interested to discover that (as of the latest available data) 60% of U.S. households with an EV also had a non-electric SUV, truck, or minivan and that most households who had both an EV and an ICE vehicle put more miles on the ICE vehicle.
https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2021 ... ouseholds/
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch
-
- Posts: 15368
- Joined: Fri Dec 31, 2010 8:53 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
I'd be curious what percentage of GCs are driving for extended periods with a trailer, without a way to charge when they (have to) stop, on a regular basis. At least based on my experience, I think the lightning probably still meets the regular needs of most GCs (as EVs do for most average drivers), but you really have to examine your own situation.just frank wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:15 amTotally sensible. I think for folks with large cargo space needs or heavy towing, ICE is gonna be the way to go for a long time. Less so 'vanity trucks' in my neighborhood used for single passenger commuting. LOL.toomanysidehustles wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:02 amFor me and my driving needs, I think it is still a decade away at least if not longer. I routinely pull a 5,000-10,000 pound trailer with my diesel truck, and one common trip is to a city 6:45 minutes away (Park City, UT) from N. Colorado to do work. The best/fastest way there is on I-80 through Wyoming. I can leave my house at 5am and arrive before noon in my truck with one fill-up if pulling a trailer, zero stops in my truck with no trailer and make it there 30 minutes faster. It would literally take all day for a F150 Lightning, Rivian, etc. and good luck if it is a windy day and you blow through "range" prematurely. No thanks. Time is money to me.
The below video puts things in perspective and is comical for those thinking EV's are the answer to "progress" for the average working American that pulls a trailer. And there are more than us than you think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEtStnltwOo
I understand why Ford is starting with the F-150 Lightning, but I think its a vanity truck, or maybe for a contractor with low mileage and no towing requirements, but it is not a 1:1 drop in replacement for the F-150. If Ford tried to sell me on the idea it was, I could imagine having buyers remorse and being ticked off.
The one person I know who has a deposit on a lightning is buying it to tow his boat, but there are multiple lakes with 30 miles.
Last edited by stoptothink on Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
Unfortunately - neither state we operate in has those options for residential. One used to have something like that maybe 20 years back but not currently.just frank wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:23 amI have a smart meter, and my utility has years of records of my hourly electric usage. I can log in, press a button, and they will compute if a TOU plan would be cheaper or more expensive for me, to the dollar. The usual rate structure is neutral for the average user. I would save a small amount with no load shifting. So I didn't switch.aquaman wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 7:30 amMost homeowners have very little opportunity to shift power usage. Putting on your washing machine/dryer and dishwasher at night can help, but for a lot of people this accounts for a tiny portion of their power consumption. In our case, for instance, we have a house with multiple a/c's, and a swimming pool and we work from home a ton, so there is no meaningful opportunity to shift usage.CletusCaddy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:39 pmWhy would you assume this? Most people use less electricity from midnight-3pm, and more electricty from 3pm-midnight. That is the whole reason why time of use plans incentivize usage the way they do.aquaman wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:13 pm A lot of power companies also have seasonal rates, so you have to account for those. Likewise, with a number of power companies, switching to an electric vehicle rate may give you an amazing off-peak rate, but increase the peak rate. If so, switching to such a rate may or may not save you money, but even if it does, just quoting the low off-peak rate wouldn't be accurate, as you'd still be paying the higher peak rate, which would eat into the savings.
So the better assumption to make is that switching from a flat rate plan to a time of use plan should be cost neutral. And then you add the EV charging cost which is the only incremental cost.
Regardless, you're never going to be able to shift 100% of your usage to the off peak hours. Hence, the reason that just quoting the low off-peak rate wouldn't be accurate, as you'd still be paying the higher peak rate on some of your residual usage, which would eat into the savings.
I set up my EV to charge at low demand times (meaning my EV is now mostly nuclear powered, BTW). That's 2500 kWh in off peak demand.
If I had a newer water heater, I could set it to run at night too, shifting another 1000 kWh or so.
My Ecobee thermostat can do heat/cold banking (with adjustable comfort impacts), but I need to upgrade the firmware to try it.
If I shifted all those three loads, I could save >$500/year.
-
- Posts: 585
- Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2020 10:09 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
Yeah if you are going to just pull a boat 30 miles, this is fine. But if you want to go to that cool lake 200 miles away you need to plan charging at least once...maybe twice if there are hills and wind.stoptothink wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:39 amI'd be curious what percentage of GCs are driving for extended periods with a trailer, without a way to charge when they (have to) stop, on a regular basis. At least based on my experience, I think the lightning probably still meets the regular needs of most GCs (as EVs do for most average drivers), but you really have to examine your own situation.just frank wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:15 amTotally sensible. I think for folks with large cargo space needs or heavy towing, ICE is gonna be the way to go for a long time. Less so 'vanity trucks' in my neighborhood used for single passenger commuting. LOL.toomanysidehustles wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:02 amFor me and my driving needs, I think it is still a decade away at least if not longer. I routinely pull a 5,000-10,000 pound trailer with my diesel truck, and one common trip is to a city 6:45 minutes away (Park City, UT) from N. Colorado to do work. The best/fastest way there is on I-80 through Wyoming. I can leave my house at 5am and arrive before noon in my truck with one fill-up if pulling a trailer, zero stops in my truck with no trailer and make it there 30 minutes faster. It would literally take all day for a F150 Lightning, Rivian, etc. and good luck if it is a windy day and you blow through "range" prematurely. No thanks. Time is money to me.
The below video puts things in perspective and is comical for those thinking EV's are the answer to "progress" for the average working American that pulls a trailer. And there are more than us than you think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEtStnltwOo
I understand why Ford is starting with the F-150 Lightning, but I think its a vanity truck, or maybe for a contractor with low mileage and no towing requirements, but it is not a 1:1 drop in replacement for the F-150. If Ford tried to sell me on the idea it was, I could imagine having buyers remorse and being ticked off.
The one person I know who has a deposit on a lightning is buying it to tow his boat, but there are multiple lakes with 30 miles.
Almost every contractor that works with tools (that I know) has a trailer unless they can get it all in a van. There are a growing number of contractors moving to cargo vans (Promaster, Transit) based on efficiency and non-diesel fuel if they can get their tools to fit in a van. Driving 100-150 miles with stops is very inefficient for a diesel truck at these fuel prices. We also have a 2019 Promaster 2500 and it is great for non-towing needs and property management around the town we live in. Now I AM excited for the future of EV cargo vans. But that's for another thread.
-
- Posts: 1516
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:52 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
The charging and range EV issue get magnified with a truck. A good GC is a busy person. I don't see most adding charging time to their daily schedule. It's one thing to fill up your F250 with diesel. It's another to need to wait for an hour charge or drive around looking for a working L3 charger. I'm also looking for the first f150 lightning that backs too far into the lake while unloading their boat and torches motors and/or batteries.stoptothink wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:39 amI'd be curious what percentage of GCs are driving for extended periods with a trailer, without a way to charge when they (have to) stop, on a regular basis. At least based on my experience, I think the lightning probably still meets the regular needs of most GCs (as EVs do for most average drivers), but you really have to examine your own situation.just frank wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:15 amTotally sensible. I think for folks with large cargo space needs or heavy towing, ICE is gonna be the way to go for a long time. Less so 'vanity trucks' in my neighborhood used for single passenger commuting. LOL.toomanysidehustles wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:02 amFor me and my driving needs, I think it is still a decade away at least if not longer. I routinely pull a 5,000-10,000 pound trailer with my diesel truck, and one common trip is to a city 6:45 minutes away (Park City, UT) from N. Colorado to do work. The best/fastest way there is on I-80 through Wyoming. I can leave my house at 5am and arrive before noon in my truck with one fill-up if pulling a trailer, zero stops in my truck with no trailer and make it there 30 minutes faster. It would literally take all day for a F150 Lightning, Rivian, etc. and good luck if it is a windy day and you blow through "range" prematurely. No thanks. Time is money to me.
The below video puts things in perspective and is comical for those thinking EV's are the answer to "progress" for the average working American that pulls a trailer. And there are more than us than you think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WEtStnltwOo
I understand why Ford is starting with the F-150 Lightning, but I think its a vanity truck, or maybe for a contractor with low mileage and no towing requirements, but it is not a 1:1 drop in replacement for the F-150. If Ford tried to sell me on the idea it was, I could imagine having buyers remorse and being ticked off.
The one person I know who has a deposit on a lightning is buying it to tow his boat, but there are multiple lakes with 30 miles.
-
- Posts: 2678
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:23 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
Yeah, because I'm sure the Ford engineers never thought to test the thing offroad in mud, flooded streets, snow...Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:29 am I'm also looking for the first f150 lightning that backs too far into the lake while unloading their boat and torches motors and/or batteries.
-
- Posts: 2678
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:23 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
If you have relatively constant usage across the hours of the day (because of WFH and constant 100 degree outside temps), then a Time-of-Use plan should be cost neutral to you relative to a flat rate plan. You get charged more for your usage during the evening hours but less during the daytime hours. Without any EV, and without any behavior change, your costs should be the same.aquaman wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 7:30 amMost homeowners have very little opportunity to shift power usage. Putting on your washing machine/dryer and dishwasher at night can help, but for a lot of people this accounts for a tiny portion of their power consumption. In our case, for instance, we have a house with multiple a/c's, and a swimming pool and we work from home a ton, so there is no meaningful opportunity to shift usage.CletusCaddy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:39 pmWhy would you assume this? Most people use less electricity from midnight-3pm, and more electricty from 3pm-midnight. That is the whole reason why time of use plans incentivize usage the way they do.aquaman wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 2:13 pm A lot of power companies also have seasonal rates, so you have to account for those. Likewise, with a number of power companies, switching to an electric vehicle rate may give you an amazing off-peak rate, but increase the peak rate. If so, switching to such a rate may or may not save you money, but even if it does, just quoting the low off-peak rate wouldn't be accurate, as you'd still be paying the higher peak rate, which would eat into the savings.
So the better assumption to make is that switching from a flat rate plan to a time of use plan should be cost neutral. And then you add the EV charging cost which is the only incremental cost.
Regardless, you're never going to be able to shift 100% of your usage to the off peak hours. Hence, the reason that just quoting the low off-peak rate wouldn't be accurate, as you'd still be paying the higher peak rate on some of your residual usage, which would eat into the savings.
Now add an EV to the mix that charges exclusively during off-peak hours. There is no other incremental cost incurred, aside from the EV.
-
- Posts: 1516
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:52 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
My current '19 ford FX4 off road pickup is rated for water crossing to the hubs. Any fording above that isn't recommended. The alternator rides low and will get destroyed in deep mud. I'm sure the Lightning has the fording capabilities of a Bronco Raptor.CletusCaddy wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:51 amYeah, because I'm sure the Ford engineers never thought to test the thing offroad in mud, flooded streets, snow...Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:29 am I'm also looking for the first f150 lightning that backs too far into the lake while unloading their boat and torches motors and/or batteries.
-
- Posts: 2678
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:23 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T21njN2HJgYCaliforniastate wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:00 amMy current '19 ford FX4 off road pickup is rated for water crossing to the hubs. Any fording above that isn't recommended. The alternator rides low and will get destroyed in deep mud. I'm sure the Lightning has the fording capabilities of a Bronco Raptor.CletusCaddy wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:51 amYeah, because I'm sure the Ford engineers never thought to test the thing offroad in mud, flooded streets, snow...Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:29 am I'm also looking for the first f150 lightning that backs too far into the lake while unloading their boat and torches motors and/or batteries.
-
- Posts: 1516
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:52 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
That's a Rivian.CletusCaddy wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:01 amhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T21njN2HJgYCaliforniastate wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 11:00 amMy current '19 ford FX4 off road pickup is rated for water crossing to the hubs. Any fording above that isn't recommended. The alternator rides low and will get destroyed in deep mud. I'm sure the Lightning has the fording capabilities of a Bronco Raptor.CletusCaddy wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:51 amYeah, because I'm sure the Ford engineers never thought to test the thing offroad in mud, flooded streets, snow...Californiastate wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 9:29 am I'm also looking for the first f150 lightning that backs too far into the lake while unloading their boat and torches motors and/or batteries.
-
- Posts: 48944
- Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
(there's an underlying assumption there that I think needs to be tested. Regarding pricing per kwhr consumed?).CletusCaddy wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 10:59 am
If you have relatively constant usage across the hours of the day (because of WFH and constant 100 degree outside temps), then a Time-of-Use plan should be cost neutral to you relative to a flat rate plan. You get charged more for your usage during the evening hours but less during the daytime hours. Without any EV, and without any behavior change, your costs should be the same.
I think that's dependent on whether the Regulator mandates a symmetry between ToU & flat rate plans?
It's perfectly possible that rates are so much higher during peak hours (when wholesale electricity prices are high) that the advantage of time shifting is maximised (more hours at near 0 wholesale rate, than 5 hours at peak rates). That is, after all, what ToU systems are designed to do - to align consumer decisions with the maximum value for the grid, thus yielding a net positive value overall for the system as a whole (created by reducing the maximum generation capacity the system needs).
At any rate I'd have to work through an example or two to convince myself that it was always the case.
Then it genuinely does create savings. Also true if you have home PV & can charge your EV during hours of high solar insolation (and your PV generates enough surplus kwhr to do that).Now add an EV to the mix that charges exclusively during off-peak hours. There is no other incremental cost incurred, aside from the EV.
-
- Posts: 48944
- Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
I don't know what the data is on how many pickup owners actually use their pickups in their business (as pickups, not as cars) as opposed to they sit 98% of the time in the suburban driveway, commute to work, maybe go on a couple of long trips a year? Or even just use them at the weekend to take the boat to the lake?toomanysidehustles wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:55 am
Yeah if you are going to just pull a boat 30 miles, this is fine. But if you want to go to that cool lake 200 miles away you need to plan charging at least once...maybe twice if there are hills and wind.
Almost every contractor that works with tools (that I know) has a trailer unless they can get it all in a van. There are a growing number of contractors moving to cargo vans (Promaster, Transit) based on efficiency and non-diesel fuel if they can get their tools to fit in a van. Driving 100-150 miles with stops is very inefficient for a diesel truck at these fuel prices. We also have a 2019 Promaster 2500 and it is great for non-towing needs and property management around the town we live in. Now I AM excited for the future of EV cargo vans. But that's for another thread.
My perception is that actual contractor types drive smaller, more economical vehicles - because they put the miles in and a more expensive vehicle ties up more money in the business. Maybe just older, more beat up vehicles.
So I suspect a lot of this stuff about towing & hauling is, in fact, not a big issue for most actual owners of these vehicles.
Vans. In England, we talk about "white van man" -- what you'd call a General Contractor with a pickup. I gather white vans have other, not pleasant, connotations.
Part of the reason to favour vans over pickups (I am not at all sure that the few pickups here are used for hauling stuff, as opposed for being sort of posey--like owning a big American car (in a country that drives on the left hand side of the road) are:
1. weather. It rains *a lot*. Well we are in the midst of a terrible drought. But it can rain a *lot*
2. security. Stuff would get stolen. It's bad enough break-ins on vans. I know plumbers (their van can easily carry £10k worth of stuff) who own Rhodesian ridgeback guard dogs that they take with them to work.
EVs have not yet reached commercial vehicles yet (except the fabled London taxis). But given the cost of petrol (£1.87/ litre for diesel, this AM, and I think that's something over USD 8/ US gal) they no doubt will. Also if the brakes are longer lasting - it's death to these people if their van is off the road during the working week, for repairs.
If you go to the Middle East, then everyone drives those small Japanese pickups - Toyotas & Mitsubishis in particular.
And in places like Syria, Libya, Somalia, militias bolt heavy machine guns, recoilless rifles, mortars or rocket launchers on the back beds, and use them as mobile artillery. And these are called "technicals" in the jargon. There are many cool videos on Youtube from the likes of both ISIS & their Kurdish opponents, showing these in action.
So there you go. One advantage of an ICE pickup is that, come the zombie apocalypse or the Red Dawn, you have mobile firepower.
A good reason perhaps to hold off on buying an EV .
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
Actually, EVs have made some inroads with commercial vehicles, even in the USA. While I don't really follow this closely, FedEx is based in my area and is my DWs a former employer, I'm aware of their transition to EVs in several sectors. I often see their EVs making deliveries on my street.Valuethinker wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:53 pm
EVs have not yet reached commercial vehicles yet (except the fabled London taxis). But given the cost of petrol (£1.87/ litre for diesel, this AM, and I think that's something over USD 8/ US gal) they no doubt will. Also if the brakes are longer lasting - it's death to these people if their van is off the road during the working week, for repairs.
https://newsroom.fedex.com/newsroom/glo ... brightdrop
Another example....we often vacation on Martha's Vineyard, and use the public bus system. Several of the busses we road last fall were EVs.
I'm sure there are many other examples, but EVs do seem to be making inroads in the commercial sector beyond those London taxis.
- squirrel1963
- Posts: 1253
- Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:12 am
- Location: Portland OR area
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
Who knows when the Tesla Cybertruck will start production, but it will have tick steel plates and bulletproof glass, and the top end variant is supposed to have 500 miles range. It won't won't help during zombie apocalypse because presumably Superchargers will no longer work, but it will help you feel safe from road rage.Valuethinker wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 4:53 pmI don't know what the data is on how many pickup owners actually use their pickups in their business (as pickups, not as cars) as opposed to they sit 98% of the time in the suburban driveway, commute to work, maybe go on a couple of long trips a year? Or even just use them at the weekend to take the boat to the lake?toomanysidehustles wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:55 am
Yeah if you are going to just pull a boat 30 miles, this is fine. But if you want to go to that cool lake 200 miles away you need to plan charging at least once...maybe twice if there are hills and wind.
Almost every contractor that works with tools (that I know) has a trailer unless they can get it all in a van. There are a growing number of contractors moving to cargo vans (Promaster, Transit) based on efficiency and non-diesel fuel if they can get their tools to fit in a van. Driving 100-150 miles with stops is very inefficient for a diesel truck at these fuel prices. We also have a 2019 Promaster 2500 and it is great for non-towing needs and property management around the town we live in. Now I AM excited for the future of EV cargo vans. But that's for another thread.
My perception is that actual contractor types drive smaller, more economical vehicles - because they put the miles in and a more expensive vehicle ties up more money in the business. Maybe just older, more beat up vehicles.
So I suspect a lot of this stuff about towing & hauling is, in fact, not a big issue for most actual owners of these vehicles.
Vans. In England, we talk about "white van man" -- what you'd call a General Contractor with a pickup. I gather white vans have other, not pleasant, connotations.
Part of the reason to favour vans over pickups (I am not at all sure that the few pickups here are used for hauling stuff, as opposed for being sort of posey--like owning a big American car (in a country that drives on the left hand side of the road) are:
1. weather. It rains *a lot*. Well we are in the midst of a terrible drought. But it can rain a *lot*
2. security. Stuff would get stolen. It's bad enough break-ins on vans. I know plumbers (their van can easily carry £10k worth of stuff) who own Rhodesian ridgeback guard dogs that they take with them to work.
EVs have not yet reached commercial vehicles yet (except the fabled London taxis). But given the cost of petrol (£1.87/ litre for diesel, this AM, and I think that's something over USD 8/ US gal) they no doubt will. Also if the brakes are longer lasting - it's death to these people if their van is off the road during the working week, for repairs.
If you go to the Middle East, then everyone drives those small Japanese pickups - Toyotas & Mitsubishis in particular.
And in places like Syria, Libya, Somalia, militias bolt heavy machine guns, recoilless rifles, mortars or rocket launchers on the back beds, and use them as mobile artillery. And these are called "technicals" in the jargon. There are many cool videos on Youtube from the likes of both ISIS & their Kurdish opponents, showing these in action.
So there you go. One advantage of an ICE pickup is that, come the zombie apocalypse or the Red Dawn, you have mobile firepower.
A good reason perhaps to hold off on buying an EV .
LMP | Liability Matching Portfolio | safe portfolio: TIPS ladder + I-bonds + Treasuries | risky portfolio: US stocks / US REIT / International stocks
- willthrill81
- Posts: 32250
- Joined: Thu Jan 26, 2017 2:17 pm
- Location: USA
- Contact:
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
That's very interesting. Thanks for the link. It also noted that "households with an EV are almost four times less likely to be a single-vehicle household."vineviz wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:37 amjust frank wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:15 am Totally sensible. I think for folks with large cargo space needs or heavy towing, ICE is gonna be the way to go for a long time. Less so 'vanity trucks' in my neighborhood used for single passenger commuting. LOL.
I understand why Ford is starting with the F-150 Lightning, but I think its a vanity truck, or maybe for a contractor with low mileage and no towing requirements, but it is not a 1:1 drop in replacement for the F-150. If Ford tried to sell me on the idea it was, I could imagine having buyers remorse and being ticked off.
I probably wouldn't find it surprising if I'd thought about it a little harder, but I was interested to discover that (as of the latest available data) 60% of U.S. households with an EV also had a non-electric SUV, truck, or minivan and that most households who had both an EV and an ICE vehicle put more miles on the ICE vehicle.
https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2021 ... ouseholds/
It makes perfect sense that an ICE would be used over an EV for long trips, but it seems to me that such driving only represents the minority of the miles driven by most households. It appears that the authors were also perplexed by the finding that ICE vehicles are driven more miles than EVs in households with both.
At any rate, it seems very likely that with existing technology, most single-vehicle households will continue to prefer an ICE, and most households with an EV will also have an ICE. The technological limitations of EVs' range have certainly not been easy to resolve.
The Sensible Steward
- squirrel1963
- Posts: 1253
- Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:12 am
- Location: Portland OR area
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
I'm also surprised that within the same household an ICE is driven more miles than an EV. It'd be interesting to see the breakdown between households with L2 home charging and households without.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:35 pmThat's very interesting. Thanks for the link. It also noted that "households with an EV are almost four times less likely to be a single-vehicle household."vineviz wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:37 amjust frank wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:15 am Totally sensible. I think for folks with large cargo space needs or heavy towing, ICE is gonna be the way to go for a long time. Less so 'vanity trucks' in my neighborhood used for single passenger commuting. LOL.
I understand why Ford is starting with the F-150 Lightning, but I think its a vanity truck, or maybe for a contractor with low mileage and no towing requirements, but it is not a 1:1 drop in replacement for the F-150. If Ford tried to sell me on the idea it was, I could imagine having buyers remorse and being ticked off.
I probably wouldn't find it surprising if I'd thought about it a little harder, but I was interested to discover that (as of the latest available data) 60% of U.S. households with an EV also had a non-electric SUV, truck, or minivan and that most households who had both an EV and an ICE vehicle put more miles on the ICE vehicle.
https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2021 ... ouseholds/
It makes perfect sense that an ICE would be used over an EV for long trips, but it seems to me that such driving only represents the minority of the miles driven by most households. It appears that the authors were also perplexed by the finding that ICE vehicles are driven more miles than EVs in households with both.
At any rate, it seems very likely that with existing technology, most single-vehicle households will continue to prefer an ICE, and most households with an EV will also have an ICE. The technological limitations of EVs' range have certainly not been easy to resolve.
Certainly adoption rates in the US point to the fact that we are still in early adoption phase, especially once you breakdown sales by state.
https://insideevs.com/news/584760/plugi ... -2021/amp/
California is now ahead of Europe in new EV registrations at 12% for 2021, with Oregon, Washington and Hawaii at 7% and the rest of the country with very low rates.
Contrast this with Scandinavia which has very high adoption rates, in particular Norway where new passenger ICE are less than half of the new registrations.
Perhaps this is in part on account of tax incentives, but I also think three factors are very important :
1) The US is a big country. We consider 500+ miles trips to be normal, in Europe they are definitely very uncommon. 1000+ miles trips in Europe are almost unheard of.
2) Trucks are very popular in the US, and until last year we didn't have EV trucks. Rivian R1T and Ford Lightning are still produced at fairly low volumes and Tesla Cybertruck is late, current ETA is 2023, but who knows.
3) High cost of gasoline and diesel in Europe, US gasoline at $5/gal is still cheap in comparison.
Whatever the reason it is very clear that Norway will be the first country where soon new ICE passenger registrations will be less than 10%, the last step in the S-adoption curve.
LMP | Liability Matching Portfolio | safe portfolio: TIPS ladder + I-bonds + Treasuries | risky portfolio: US stocks / US REIT / International stocks
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
Year to Date Norway is 3.4% gasoline and 4.6% diesel for 8% of total 2022 new car registrationsquirrel1963 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 6:12 pm Whatever the reason it is very clear that Norway will be the first country where soon new ICE passenger registrations will be less than 10%, the last step in the S-adoption curve.
**
The “average american” does not tow with their pickup trucks. There are far more truck owners who dont tow, than those that do.
-
- Posts: 27
- Joined: Mon Jan 11, 2021 3:30 pm
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
1) In most cities your largest savings will be from HOV lane tolls (free) and time (if you value your time).
2) Some comments say electricity is 30c/kwh, which is not true in most of the US: https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/. Cost of electricity is local and dependent on your utility provider and the plans they offer. Also, retail cost of electricity and cost of charging EVs is not the same. Most people can get free charging at work. Many utilities have different plans for electric car charging as well as off peak, time of use. TXU has a free nights and weekends plan, Austin Energy has a $4.17/month plan (free charging at 1000+ locations), Georgia Power has 5c off peak plan. EV cars may come with a free charging perk, Nissan used to have a 24 month no charge to charge, now they seem to have some other perks. How much you pay for charging is utility/local dependent. For most people living in cities, the cost to charge is negligible.
3) Cost comparisons invariably end up with a Tesla, but consider cheaper alternatives. A Leaf works for most use cases. For families (2 cars), one car can be a used Leaf or a lease. Nissan frequently offers leases that are less than $100/month, run for 2 - 3 years.
4) Consider all the available incentives -- federal, state, utility, and clear air/environmental programs. NJ has no sales tax on EVs, Texas has a $2500 rebate from TCEQ. Most states have a $1000 - $5000 incentive: https://www.kbb.com/car-advice/elecrtri ... -by-state/.
If you take a slightly higher level view, true savings come from demand destruction
5) Cheapest sources are exploited first, the future of oil is going to be costlier -- higher demand is fulfilled from oil sands, fracking. Oil is a global commodity, the rest of the world has to catch up to western standards, hence more oil/energy demand in future == higher prices. The cheapest oil extractable today might be $10/barrel (Saudi Arabia), higher demand requires extraction from difficult sources, perhaps $60 - $80/barrel. Higher demand increases prices for everyone.
6) High oil prices reduces suburban home values (or stops it from rising as fast as it can). Most people's networth in is their home, it is a 5x leveraged bet. People have a fixed amount of income, if they end up paying $1000/month on gas, it takes cash away from mortgage payments. There are many comments about how cheap it is to maintain an ICE car, they get 35 - 49 mpg, drive 6000 miles/year, costs less than $100/month. The demographic on bogleheads is a bit different, they would have thought quite a bit about what car to buy for high mileage, where to live for the lowest distance to work, etc and optimized for the best value. However, most people don't think and thoughtfully optimize. Anyways, buying an EV helps net worth, not individually, but as a collective benefit. This is uniquely American, I don't think suburban sprawl exists in most of the world.
7) As long as you have a gas car, energy usage is split across oil (cars), electricity, gas (cooking). This is a total of $700 - $1000 for most people (2 cars). Owning an EV gives a unique opportunity to consolidate all of this energy, make it all electric. This consolidation provides a powerful incentive
to go solar and make it all free, forever.
8) There will be a tipping point soon (next decade? 3 - 5 years?), a lot of people will realize EVs are cheaper and will continue to get cheaper. ICE cars will depreciate rapidly and become worthless in a decade.
9) Charging at home is cheaper in more ways than one. You can never fill gas at home, have to go to a gas station or retailer (costco, walmart) to get gas. This is a waste of time. There are powerful algorithms at work that make you buy stuff at these places. Gas stations or retailers don't make any money on gas, it is at cost or a loss leader, because they know that once you are already there .... you will come and buy stuff worth $20 - $200. And since we are already there, there are plenty of aisles to meander around, and lots of interesting stuff to buy. The systems at work make even the steeliest of us buy something. Consider the thousands of dollars saved not buying stuff when we go to get gas. And the time saved.
10) With demand destruction, the price of everything goes down. Most folks can relate to this recent phenomenon of inflation. Energy price is baked into everything. The 10 billion SKUs of plastic+electronic trinkets on Amazon, Walmart, etc they will all be cheaper. As well as food and essentials.
Last edited by garfield_dilbert on Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
-
- Posts: 15368
- Joined: Fri Dec 31, 2010 8:53 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
This may be the case in your city, but there are 18 states that have never had a toll road of any kind and that doesn't include Utah (I have no idea where there is a toll road here). Also, less than 1/3 of states allow single-occupied EVs in HOV lanes. Furthermore, for privately owned toll roads; a small few allow EVs for free, others give them a discount, but the overwhelming majority make EVs pay the same. This is a benefit only for some drivers, in some cities.garfield_dilbert wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:11 am1) In most cities your largest savings will be from HOV lane tolls (free).
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
I can't recall the last time I went to a gas station in the United States where I couldn't pay at the pump with a credit card.garfield_dilbert wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:11 am 9) Charging at home is cheaper in more ways than one. You can never fill gas at home, have to go to a gas station or retailer (costco, walmart) to get gas. This is a waste of time. There are powerful algorithms at work that make you buy stuff at these places. Gas stations or retailers don't make any money on gas, it is at cost or a loss leader, because they know that once you are already there .... you will come and buy stuff worth $20 - $200. And since we are already there, there are plenty of aisles to meander around, and lots of interesting stuff to buy. The systems at work make even the steeliest of us buy something. Consider the thousands of dollars saved not buying stuff when we go to get gas. And the time saved.
For those who buy gasoline at Costco - the pumps are outside the store. It looks like the Costco gas station hours are 5:30AM - 9:30PM during weekdays while the store hours are 10AM - 8:30PM (Southern Nevada). I suspect a lot of people are buying gasoline during non-store hours in the early morning on the way to work so they certainly aren't going inside to make any additional purchases.
Last edited by 7eight9 on Sun Aug 07, 2022 9:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
I guess it all could be much worse. |
They could be warming up my hearse.
-
- Posts: 48944
- Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
It's not easy to match cost of production to actual oil price. There are places like Canada which have high cost tar sands oil, but no real political restrictions on its production (there are pipeline constraints). Then there are places which have plenty of low cost oil like Saudi Arabia, but deliberately extend the life of these reservoirs, and work to keep world oil prices high, by constraining production.garfield_dilbert wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:11 am .
If you take a slightly higher level view, true savings come from demand destruction
5) Cheapest sources are exploited first, the future of oil is going to be costlier -- higher demand is fulfilled from oil sands, fracking. Oil is a global commodity, the rest of the world has to catch up to western standards, hence more oil/energy demand in future == higher prices. The cheapest oil extractable today might be $10/barrel (Saudi Arabia), higher demand requires extraction from difficult sources, perhaps $60 - $80/barrel. Higher demand increases prices for everyone.
So the nice economic models (Harold Hotelling's in particular) of lowest costs being used first really don't work well. Adelman, the doyen of energy economists, had a "backward bending supply curve" model, which well explained what OPEC was up to from 1973 towards 2000. Saudi Arabia still uses price wars to force people like Russia to cooperate on maintaining prices. And also to crush the US fracking industry.
In the long run the price probably does rise due to scarcity. World demand never seems to stop rising, but we can see a world, 2030+, where the switch of developed countries to EVs really starts to move the needle downwards on demand. Given that emerging markets are still rising in demand, that may save us from another oil crisis. Europe + China have big economic & strategic reasons to free themselves from foreign oil imports. Albeit a world we are moving to at 10x normal rate - one where Russia is an economic satellite of China, and the Chinese have a secure, geographically contiguous and politically aligned oil supplier. In the way Canada is for the USA but on c 5x scale. That might disincentivize the rapid Chinese shift to EVs (but there are other forces at work).
Yes there is an effect between oil prices and home values. It's been modelled. It's not a very strong effect, but it's present. However in the post Covid world we are more comfortable with remote working. And so that probably contributes to sprawl. It's interesting to note that those who work from home don't appear to use much less gasoline - leisure & family trips, work related trips seem to make up the gap.6) High oil prices reduces suburban home values (or stops it from rising as fast as it can). Most people's networth in is their home, it is a 5x leveraged bet. People have a fixed amount of income, if they end up paying $1000/month on gas, it takes cash away from mortgage payments. There are many comments about how cheap it is to maintain an ICE car, they get 35 - 49 mpg, drive 6000 miles/year, costs less than $100/month. The demographic on bogleheads is a bit different, they would have thought quite a bit about what car to buy for high mileage, where to live for the lowest distance to work, etc and optimized for the best value. However, most people don't think and thoughtfully optimize. Anyways, buying an EV helps net worth, not individually, but as a collective benefit.
If only. You wouldn't think of the average British suburb as particularly sprawl-y. But believe me it is. Car dependence. The works. I've seen sprawl in Asia. Australia, if anything, sprawls *more* than most American cities.This is uniquely American, I don't think suburban sprawl exists in most of the world.
In Europe the habitable land is much more densely packed than most of America. There's nothing quite like Manhattan (you'd have to go to Hong Kong or Singapore for that) but suburbs are just smaller and closer in.
The big factor driving American sprawl, besides compliant transportation planning, is single family home zoning. That practically compels sprawl. Compare Montreal (wide variety of low rise housing options in each neighbourhood, flexible zoning in that regard) with Toronto or Vancouver - supertall condo towers downtown and at major satellite intersections, endless sprawl of SFH in between.
You are forgetting heating, far and away the largest use of natural gas in a domestic setting (in England, my gas usage is c 10x my electricity usage - but we don't have AC). Heat pumps will change that, but it's a slow process to do it.7) As long as you have a gas car, energy usage is split across oil (cars), electricity, gas (cooking). This is a total of $700 - $1000 for most people (2 cars). Owning an EV gives a unique opportunity to consolidate all of this energy, make it all electric. This consolidation provides a powerful incentive
to go solar and make it all free, forever.
I actually think they will get more valuable as they get scarcer - fewer different models, fewer manufactured & sold. Owners won't really have a problem until the number of places actually selling gas &/or able to fix ICE cars starts to shrink.8) There will be a tipping point soon (next decade? 3 - 5 years?), a lot of people will realize EVs are cheaper and will continue to get cheaper. ICE cars will depreciate rapidly and become worthless in a decade.
I don't think the macro effects will be quite as dramatic as you say. Total life cycle costs of EVs will be similar to ICE vehicles for a long time (more cost upfront, less cost to own).9) Charging at home is cheaper in more ways than one. You can never fill gas at home, have to go to a gas station or retailer (costco, walmart) to get gas. This is a waste of time. There are powerful algorithms at work that make you buy stuff at these places. Gas stations or retailers don't make any money on gas, it is at cost or a loss leader, because they know that once you are already there .... you will come and buy stuff worth $20 - $200. And since we are already there, there are plenty of aisles to meander around, and lots of interesting stuff to buy. The systems at work make even the steeliest of us buy something. Consider the thousands of dollars saved not buying stuff when we go to get gas. And the time saved.
10) With demand destruction, the price of everything goes down. Most folks can relate to this recent phenomenon of inflation. Energy price is baked into everything. The 10 billion SKUs of plastic+electronic trinkets on Amazon, Walmart, etc they will all be cheaper. As well as food and essentials.
I agree that we will get over the inconveniences of EVs, just as ICE cars were extremely inconvenient in their early days. You had to be a mechanic to keep a Ford Model T on the road. Cross country travel was difficult (as Colonel Eisenhower found out leading an Army unit "march" across America; one reason he was so keep on German autobahn-style interstate highway system).
We will, in time, wonder what we were doing allowing all these dirty, smelly vehicles on our roadways. Just as films of Los Angeles in the 1950s, say, are palpable for the smog coming out of the car exhausts - you can actually see that, and the photochemical haze on the horizon.
As always, there's no reason the US to be first in this. Europe has a geopolitical & geostrategic motivation to pick up the pace (over the opposition of the German car industry). China ditto. Japan is a quandary because they do, but the incumbent manufacturers have lobbied so successfully against EVs due to their investment in hybrid cars & Fuel Cell Vehicles.
-
- Posts: 441
- Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2014 11:28 pm
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
Hmmm....I just drove through Salt Lake City and there were HOV/ toll lanes there.stoptothink wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:28 amThis may be the case in your city, but there are 18 states that have never had a toll road of any kind and that doesn't include Utah (I have no idea where there is a toll road here). Also, less than 1/3 of states allow single-occupied EVs in HOV lanes. Furthermore, for privately owned toll roads; a small few allow EVs for free, others give them a discount, but the overwhelming majority make EVs pay the same. This is a benefit only for some drivers, in some cities.garfield_dilbert wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:11 am1) In most cities your largest savings will be from HOV lane tolls (free).
- just frank
- Posts: 1933
- Joined: Sun Nov 02, 2014 3:13 pm
- Location: Philly Metro
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
Despite being an EV advocate, I don't think we will be scrapping all ICE cars as useless in a decade.
Adoption is 'uneven' due to differences in incentives, use cases, climate, household income, local price of kWh and gas, and many other factors. This will continue to be the case going forward. My $$$ neighborhood in a state with bad incentives (PA) has a ton of EVs as a status symbol, >10% on the road. So different states/countries/regions will have tipping points at different times probably separated by more than 10 years.
This will spread out the US-level adoption curve. It might mean that when you trade in your ICE sedan in 2027 in FL, it gets shipped to MN or Boston to be sold at a good price.
Capitalism will find a way.
Adoption is 'uneven' due to differences in incentives, use cases, climate, household income, local price of kWh and gas, and many other factors. This will continue to be the case going forward. My $$$ neighborhood in a state with bad incentives (PA) has a ton of EVs as a status symbol, >10% on the road. So different states/countries/regions will have tipping points at different times probably separated by more than 10 years.
This will spread out the US-level adoption curve. It might mean that when you trade in your ICE sedan in 2027 in FL, it gets shipped to MN or Boston to be sold at a good price.
Capitalism will find a way.
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
AFAIK, we are still also probably a few years away from a fully electric minivan or large SUV.squirrel1963 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 6:12 pm 2) Trucks are very popular in the US, and until last year we didn't have EV trucks. Rivian R1T and Ford Lightning are still produced at fairly low volumes and Tesla Cybertruck is late, current ETA is 2023, but who knows.
I didn't look for data, but my guess is that a large percentage of two car households are using one of those types of vehicles to move children, pets, and/or gear around.
"Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves." ~~ Peter Lynch
-
- Posts: 15368
- Joined: Fri Dec 31, 2010 8:53 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
There is ONE HOV/Express lane on 1-15 https://www.udot.utah.gov/connect/docs/ ... lanes-map/. I have lived over 15yrs in the Salt Lake area and never once paid a toll. I didn't even know how/where you would be charged or that they sold transponders here until I just looked it up. I don't believe I know a single person who owns a transponder - at the very least I've never been in a car that has one. Even in areas where there are toll roads (certainly not all cities) and where EVs get some form of discount (less than half of existing toll roads), this may be irrelevant.sandramjet wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 9:47 amHmmm....I just drove through Salt Lake City and there were HOV/ toll lanes there.stoptothink wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:28 amThis may be the case in your city, but there are 18 states that have never had a toll road of any kind and that doesn't include Utah (I have no idea where there is a toll road here). Also, less than 1/3 of states allow single-occupied EVs in HOV lanes. Furthermore, for privately owned toll roads; a small few allow EVs for free, others give them a discount, but the overwhelming majority make EVs pay the same. This is a benefit only for some drivers, in some cities.garfield_dilbert wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:11 am1) In most cities your largest savings will be from HOV lane tolls (free).
Post I was responding to stated "in most cities" saving on tolls would be the biggest financial benefit of owning an EV; in reality, that's a benefit that would apply to a minority of drivers in specific areas.
- squirrel1963
- Posts: 1253
- Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:12 am
- Location: Portland OR area
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
Yeah I think so too, they are both tough cases, especially minivan I am thinking it would be very price sensitive. With SUV you can start at the high end and slowly work your way down just like Tesla did.vineviz wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 11:06 amAFAIK, we are still also probably a few years away from a fully electric minivan or large SUV.squirrel1963 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 6:12 pm 2) Trucks are very popular in the US, and until last year we didn't have EV trucks. Rivian R1T and Ford Lightning are still produced at fairly low volumes and Tesla Cybertruck is late, current ETA is 2023, but who knows.
I didn't look for data, but my guess is that a large percentage of two car households are using one of those types of vehicles to move children, pets, and/or gear around.
LMP | Liability Matching Portfolio | safe portfolio: TIPS ladder + I-bonds + Treasuries | risky portfolio: US stocks / US REIT / International stocks
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
A few issues with (potential) EV minivans:squirrel1963 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:15 pm Yeah I think so too, they are both tough cases, especially minivan I am thinking it would be very price sensitive. With SUV you can start at the high end and slowly work your way down just like Tesla did.
1) They're often the family roadtrip vehicle. I think this would diminish the appeal of an EV at present. Maybe 10 years down the line...
2) It's a smaller market than sedans, pickups, SUVs. If EVs are only, say, 5% of the market (for now), well then, 5% of the minivan market is pretty small.
3) They're also mainly a US (and maybe Canada) vehicle at present. So you've got to recoup your costs mostly/entirely in North America.
- squirrel1963
- Posts: 1253
- Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:12 am
- Location: Portland OR area
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
I've seen people taking road trips with infants and toddlers with the Tesla Model X which is a fairly large SUV, very roomy and falcon wing doors which are great to load/unload kids in narrow spaces, but they are not practical enough, so IMHO road tripping with infants is very much a "EV enthusiast" market now and/or only works under narrow parameters. Not to mention the price tag of $115K.psteinx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 2:19 pmA few issues with (potential) EV minivans:squirrel1963 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 1:15 pm Yeah I think so too, they are both tough cases, especially minivan I am thinking it would be very price sensitive. With SUV you can start at the high end and slowly work your way down just like Tesla did.
1) They're often the family roadtrip vehicle. I think this would diminish the appeal of an EV at present. Maybe 10 years down the line...
2) It's a smaller market than sedans, pickups, SUVs. If EVs are only, say, 5% of the market (for now), well then, 5% of the minivan market is pretty small.
3) They're also mainly a US (and maybe Canada) vehicle at present. So you've got to recoup your costs mostly/entirely in North America.
BYD and CATL have both announced 1000 km (620 miles) batteries which presumably means they are 200 kWh battery packs (compared to current state of the art of 75-100 kWh for passenger vehicles), they are starting production now but if history is of any guide, it's very difficult to scale up production to make it cheap enough.
My guess these batteries are 5-10 years for general passenger vehicles and cost will most likely be a big issue especially for price sensitive products like minivans. When we had kids and bought the Toyota Sienna we only cared about price and convenience.
The other overriding concern is of course the charging network, it needs to be reliable and available to all vehicle brands. Electrify America has done a lot of progress but not enough IMHO, too many out of order stations and still not enough.
LMP | Liability Matching Portfolio | safe portfolio: TIPS ladder + I-bonds + Treasuries | risky portfolio: US stocks / US REIT / International stocks
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
I think the overlap of the minivan market with the $115K EV market is not especially big.squirrel1963 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:02 pm I've seen people taking road trips with infants and toddlers with the Tesla Model X which is a fairly large SUV, very roomy and falcon wing doors which are great to load/unload kids in narrow spaces, but they are not practical enough, so IMHO road tripping with infants is very much a "EV enthusiast" market now and/or only works under narrow parameters. Not to mention the price tag of $115K.
Aside from the pricetag itself, minivans have an "uncool" reputation (deservedly or not). Folks buying $115K vehicles want something that's cool.
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
You know what kind of doors are a pretty well proven solution to getting infants/toddlers in and out of car seats and work well in narrow spaces?squirrel1963 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:02 pmI've seen people taking road trips with infants and toddlers with the Tesla Model X which is a fairly large SUV, very roomy and falcon wing doors which are great to load/unload kids in narrow spaces
Sliding doors.
I haven't used them, but aren't gull wing doors more or less a more expensive, gimicky, and (at least in the early generations of the X) finicky solution to what sliding doors already solved? Yes, again, sliding doors/minivans are uncool, but...
- squirrel1963
- Posts: 1253
- Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:12 am
- Location: Portland OR area
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
I'll be honest I don't like them either, but people I talked to love them -- then again they would not have bought it in the first place if they didn't like them.psteinx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:19 pmYou know what kind of doors are a pretty well proven solution to getting infants/toddlers in and out of car seats and work well in narrow spaces?squirrel1963 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 4:02 pmI've seen people taking road trips with infants and toddlers with the Tesla Model X which is a fairly large SUV, very roomy and falcon wing doors which are great to load/unload kids in narrow spaces
Sliding doors.
I haven't used them, but aren't gull wing doors more or less a more expensive, gimicky, and (at least in the early generations of the X) finicky solution to what sliding doors already solved? Yes, again, sliding doors/minivans are uncool, but...
To me they just look like overly complex engineering (which means costly and possibly unreliable), sliding doors are much simpler albeit uncool.
LMP | Liability Matching Portfolio | safe portfolio: TIPS ladder + I-bonds + Treasuries | risky portfolio: US stocks / US REIT / International stocks
-
- Posts: 18461
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 6:05 am
- Location: 26 miles, 385 yards west of Copley Square
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
In New England, Connecticut and Massachusetts have some HOV lanes. Neither allow an EV unless it has the required number of occupants. And none are toll roads. Parts of 93 south of Boston, 81 east of Hartford and 91 south of Hartford.
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid
- squirrel1963
- Posts: 1253
- Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:12 am
- Location: Portland OR area
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
In California you can but you need to apply for a sticker that you apply to the car and it's not transferable, and there are limitations. It's painful.Jack FFR1846 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 7:55 pm In New England, Connecticut and Massachusetts have some HOV lanes. Neither allow an EV unless it has the required number of occupants. And none are toll roads. Parts of 93 south of Boston, 81 east of Hartford and 91 south of Hartford.
LMP | Liability Matching Portfolio | safe portfolio: TIPS ladder + I-bonds + Treasuries | risky portfolio: US stocks / US REIT / International stocks
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
There are certainly use cases that EVs aren't good for, but they are fewer than a lot of people think. It's interesting how many folks seem to really want to find reasons to not buy EVs (not just here - I've seen this many places).
As an EV driver for 8+ years, one of my favorite things is the convenience. I've saved dozens of hours over the year not having to stop for gas and not having to deal with as much maintenance - in 8 years, my maintenance costs outside of tires, brakes, cabin filter, and wiper blades is exactly $0. My 2.5 year old Model 3 has never had any maintenance (granted it's way overdue to have the tires rotated ). Rather than having to stop for gas, I spend <5 seconds plugging in when I get home.
I've never paid close attention, but we save ~$60 per month in electricity vs gas right now, but that will increase as we start commuting more frequently again (~18 mile commute each way for both DW and I).
One thing a lot of folks don't seem to consider is that charging stations at most grocery stores and such is free (at least it is where I am - not sure if that's the norm elsewhere). Charging at the office my last 3 jobs (consulting) was also free (my current job is $0.50 per hour the first 3 hours, then like $4 or something each hour after that).
I do have the HOV lane benefit on my commute - it probably saves me 5 minutes each way. Not huge, but certainly nice.
Most EV batteries will last well over 200k miles. Most ICE vehicles will have multiple major repairs by 200k miles. Someone early in the thread said something about 400k miles. In the US, 0.03% of cars make it to 300k miles: https://www.autoblog.com/photos/photos- ... milestone.. 400k is completely irrelevant.
As an EV driver for 8+ years, one of my favorite things is the convenience. I've saved dozens of hours over the year not having to stop for gas and not having to deal with as much maintenance - in 8 years, my maintenance costs outside of tires, brakes, cabin filter, and wiper blades is exactly $0. My 2.5 year old Model 3 has never had any maintenance (granted it's way overdue to have the tires rotated ). Rather than having to stop for gas, I spend <5 seconds plugging in when I get home.
I've never paid close attention, but we save ~$60 per month in electricity vs gas right now, but that will increase as we start commuting more frequently again (~18 mile commute each way for both DW and I).
One thing a lot of folks don't seem to consider is that charging stations at most grocery stores and such is free (at least it is where I am - not sure if that's the norm elsewhere). Charging at the office my last 3 jobs (consulting) was also free (my current job is $0.50 per hour the first 3 hours, then like $4 or something each hour after that).
I do have the HOV lane benefit on my commute - it probably saves me 5 minutes each way. Not huge, but certainly nice.
Most EV batteries will last well over 200k miles. Most ICE vehicles will have multiple major repairs by 200k miles. Someone early in the thread said something about 400k miles. In the US, 0.03% of cars make it to 300k miles: https://www.autoblog.com/photos/photos- ... milestone.. 400k is completely irrelevant.
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
I suspect that stat is bogus.GT99 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:39 pmIn the US, 0.03% of cars make it to 300k miles: https://www.autoblog.com/photos/photos- ... milestone.. 400k is completely irrelevant.
Your link, in turn, links to this.
Scroll down for the methodology. They're only looking at cars that were sold in the given year (2019). And they don't say, but I'd suspect that they exclude many/most private party sales and focus on dealer sales. Dealers don't typically resell 200K+ or 300K+ mile cars, but individuals do use cars that long. Perhaps fewer hit the high #s in the population as a whole than are claimed or discussed here on BH, but it happens.
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
Per government stats, the average age of light vehicles on the road in 2021 was 12.1.
That implies that the average car isn't "retired" until about age 24. There could be various statistical patterns that distort this, including some outliers that are much older distorting the average, but ~24 seems to be at least a ballpark in years. Probably the last few years as a garage queen backup or an aging couple who puts a thousand or 2 miles on per year.
Still, at even 10K miles average in a lifetime, that gets to 240K miles. Sounds high for average/typical (to me), but at least makes figures in the high 100s (as, perhaps, a more typical case) more plausible.
Per that same link, the average has gone up a lot in a relatively short period of time. From 8.9 in 2001 to 12.1 in 2021...
Also note that for cars specifically, the numbers may be a bit shorter (with trucks of various sorts lasting longer and skewing the average, maybe). There's 2 different data sequences that show car data specifically, but they don't square well with each other (not TOO far off, but somewhat...).
Comparing miles vs. years is of course not apples to apples. But it's hard to square the notion that the average car lasts ~2 decades with a claim that only 1 in ~3000 cars makes it to 300K miles.
That implies that the average car isn't "retired" until about age 24. There could be various statistical patterns that distort this, including some outliers that are much older distorting the average, but ~24 seems to be at least a ballpark in years. Probably the last few years as a garage queen backup or an aging couple who puts a thousand or 2 miles on per year.
Still, at even 10K miles average in a lifetime, that gets to 240K miles. Sounds high for average/typical (to me), but at least makes figures in the high 100s (as, perhaps, a more typical case) more plausible.
Per that same link, the average has gone up a lot in a relatively short period of time. From 8.9 in 2001 to 12.1 in 2021...
Also note that for cars specifically, the numbers may be a bit shorter (with trucks of various sorts lasting longer and skewing the average, maybe). There's 2 different data sequences that show car data specifically, but they don't square well with each other (not TOO far off, but somewhat...).
Comparing miles vs. years is of course not apples to apples. But it's hard to square the notion that the average car lasts ~2 decades with a claim that only 1 in ~3000 cars makes it to 300K miles.
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
There's a further problem with this sort of methodology, if I understand what they're doing (they don't provide many details).psteinx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:58 pmI suspect that stat is bogus.GT99 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:39 pmIn the US, 0.03% of cars make it to 300k miles: https://www.autoblog.com/photos/photos- ... milestone.. 400k is completely irrelevant.
Your link, in turn, links to this.
Scroll down for the methodology. They're only looking at cars that were sold in the given year (2019). And they don't say, but I'd suspect that they exclude many/most private party sales and focus on dealer sales. Dealers don't typically resell 200K+ or 300K+ mile cars, but individuals do use cars that long. Perhaps fewer hit the high #s in the population as a whole than are claimed or discussed here on BH, but it happens.
As a toy problem, consider that EVERY car lasts to EXACTLY 303,000 miles. And people put cars into the used market randomly (meaning, the odometer on a used car is a random draw between 0 and 303000). If you counted the % of used cars on the market with >300K miles, it would be ~1%. If you then said that only 1% of cars make it to 300K miles, you'd be dead wrong - 100% do (in this example).
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
I'm guessing you don't live in Las Vegas. I've never seen a charging station at a grocery store (free or otherwise). No place I've worked had charging (not to say that none do but I'm pretty sure it would be an outlier here).GT99 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:39 pm One thing a lot of folks don't seem to consider is that charging stations at most grocery stores and such is free (at least it is where I am - not sure if that's the norm elsewhere). Charging at the office my last 3 jobs (consulting) was also free (my current job is $0.50 per hour the first 3 hours, then like $4 or something each hour after that).
I do have the HOV lane benefit on my commute - it probably saves me 5 minutes each way. Not huge, but certainly nice.
HOV lane access (on I-15) is dependent on the number of live people in the car --- https://abcnews.go.com/US/hearse-nevada ... d=64114764
I guess it all could be much worse. |
They could be warming up my hearse.
-
- Posts: 2678
- Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:23 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
There is one charging network that does this. They are called Volta, and their stock price is down 77% since IPO exactly one year ago. So I’d say the free charging thing probably isn’t a sustainable business model.
-
- Posts: 48944
- Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
I suspect the distribution curve is skewed. That makes the arithmetic mean less useful.psteinx wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 9:15 pm Per government stats, the average age of light vehicles on the road in 2021 was 12.1.
That implies that the average car isn't "retired" until about age 24. There could be various statistical patterns that distort this, including some outliers that are much older distorting the average, but ~24 seems to be at least a ballpark in years. Probably the last few years as a garage queen backup or an aging couple who puts a thousand or 2 miles on per year.
Still, at even 10K miles average in a lifetime, that gets to 240K miles. Sounds high for average/typical (to me), but at least makes figures in the high 100s (as, perhaps, a more typical case) more plausible.
Per that same link, the average has gone up a lot in a relatively short period of time. From 8.9 in 2001 to 12.1 in 2021...
Also note that for cars specifically, the numbers may be a bit shorter (with trucks of various sorts lasting longer and skewing the average, maybe). There's 2 different data sequences that show car data specifically, but they don't square well with each other (not TOO far off, but somewhat...).
Comparing miles vs. years is of course not apples to apples. But it's hard to square the notion that the average car lasts ~2 decades with a claim that only 1 in ~3000 cars makes it to 300K miles.
I do know it was 6-7 years in around 1980, so the improvement in the durability of cars has been impressive.
-
- Posts: 48944
- Joined: Fri May 11, 2007 11:07 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
Which EVs (make & model) have you owned? Tesla?GT99 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:39 pm There are certainly use cases that EVs aren't good for, but they are fewer than a lot of people think. It's interesting how many folks seem to really want to find reasons to not buy EVs (not just here - I've seen this many places).
As an EV driver for 8+ years, one of my favorite things is the convenience. I've saved dozens of hours over the year not having to stop for gas and not having to deal with as much maintenance - in 8 years, my maintenance costs outside of tires, brakes, cabin filter, and wiper blades is exactly $0. My 2.5 year old Model 3 has never had any maintenance (granted it's way overdue to have the tires rotated ). Rather than having to stop for gas, I spend <5 seconds plugging in when I get home.
I've never paid close attention, but we save ~$60 per month in electricity vs gas right now, but that will increase as we start commuting more frequently again (~18 mile commute each way for both DW and I).
One thing a lot of folks don't seem to consider is that charging stations at most grocery stores and such is free (at least it is where I am - not sure if that's the norm elsewhere). Charging at the office my last 3 jobs (consulting) was also free (my current job is $0.50 per hour the first 3 hours, then like $4 or something each hour after that).
I do have the HOV lane benefit on my commute - it probably saves me 5 minutes each way. Not huge, but certainly nice.
Most EV batteries will last well over 200k miles. Most ICE vehicles will have multiple major repairs by 200k miles. Someone early in the thread said something about 400k miles. In the US, 0.03% of cars make it to 300k miles: https://www.autoblog.com/photos/photos- ... milestone.. 400k is completely irrelevant.
Because EVs are so new, I suspect the "statistics" around them are not a good predictor. The technology is changing very fast, and so is the infrastructure associated with them.
Tesla is not a good marker. Neither is Nissan Leaf. They were early entrants, and technology has moved along by leaps and bounds.
It's more what with the VW ID.3 and ID.4 do. The Hyundai Ionix. The Kia (EV6?). These are big name car brands, entering with background in making (mostly) reliable cars for decades. Now we can see where Tesla has "lapped" them by focusing on performance + features in a very "Silicon Valley" disruptor model kind of way - the customer as the Beta tester. The auto OEMs are racing to catch up to the biggest change in cars since probably the 1910s (or at least the late 1950s (?) when GM brought in automatic transmissions* (hydromatic?) & air conditioning, the Austin Mini was launched, Citroen was doing its stuff w features that took another 30 years to become common, Volvo & Saab introduced rear safety belts and front shoulder belts (?) etc).
Home chargers (Level 2) will become standard. Apps will direct us to unused chargers - even home ones. A good business to actually rent out your charger when you are not home.
Grocery stores? WalMart pioneered the use of low gasoline prices to get customers into its parking lot. In fact in Britain it is known as "the Asda Effect" on petrol prices (WalMart owned Asda Food Stores)-- an actual fall in petrol prices within several miles of an Asda-- empirically demonstrated.
They will do the same with chargers, in time. The longer the customer "dwell time" in your parking lot, the more likelihood they will buy stuff.
Also shade is at a premium in parking lots. Solar PV arrays will make good shades.
Expect it in California first, of course. As always. "The future is here. It's just not evenly distributed". In all things, California seems about 20 years ahead of the rest of us. Maybe only 10.
(Or to quote Bette Midler about London "The world knows that when it's 5 o'clock in New York, it's 1954 in London").
* I realise many of these innovations existed earlier. I am looking from the point of view of mass adoption/ volume production. Cars middle class folk could buy.
- squirrel1963
- Posts: 1253
- Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2017 10:12 am
- Location: Portland OR area
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
Yes statistical data about early models and early production is not a good predictor, but when it comes to batteries I would argue that they probably provide a worst case. Current high-mileage Tesla Model X and S are mostly from 5-8 years old vehicles which used standard 16850 lithium batteries. The manufacturing technology has improved by leaps and bounds and even though my 2018 Model 3 still uses 16850 batteries, they are more advanced simply because Tesla/Panasonic have gotten a lot better at manufacturing them in the Nevada Gigafactory plant. Current Teslas use 2170 lithium batteries which have been designed by Tesla and optimized for EV use, and now the 4680 form factor is being scaled up. Each of these generations of battery is increasingly better, so looking at statistics of 200k+ miles 5-8 year old batteries and batteries pack I can reasonably assume that current generations will have a longer battery life. This of course true for GM and Volkswagen as well, the current GM Bolt batteries are better by leaps and bounds.Valuethinker wrote: ↑Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:35 amBecause EVs are so new, I suspect the "statistics" around them are not a good predictor. The technology is changing very fast, and so is the infrastructure associated with them.
Tesla is not a good marker. Neither is Nissan Leaf. They were early entrants, and technology has moved along by leaps and bounds.
BYD and CATL are also making incredible progress with new chemistries, for instance Li-Fe-P (iron phosphate) as well as of course traditional Li-Co-Mn-Ni. Recyling of EV batteries should mean lower cost for the expensive elements, especially Co Mn Ni. Concerns about Li are overblown IMHO, we have enough Lithium deposits in Nevada alone to satisfy most of forecasted US demand. Europe has also large deposits in Germany. Right now prices are crazy but hopefully they will go down as supply increases.
It's interesting you mention this and I wonder if there are statistics of whether the Tesla supercharging network is good for the shopping malls and business and restaurants that have it in the same parking lots. Some food chains are very happy of having fast chargers installed.GT99 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 07, 2022 8:39 pm Grocery stores? WalMart pioneered the use of low gasoline prices to get customers into its parking lot. In fact in Britain it is known as "the Asda Effect" on petrol prices (WalMart owned Asda Food Stores)-- an actual fall in petrol prices within several miles of an Asda-- empirically demonstrated.
They will do the same with chargers, in time. The longer the customer "dwell time" in your parking lot, the more likelihood they will buy stuff.
California in 2021 saw 12.5% of new car registrations as EV. (all these stats are for passenger vehicles only).Valuethinker wrote: ↑Mon Aug 08, 2022 3:35 am Expect it in California first, of course. As always. "The future is here. It's just not evenly distributed". In all things, California seems about 20 years ahead of the rest of us. Maybe only 10.
Oregon Washington and Hawaii followed at 7%, with every other state being far behind.
For comparison California alone is above EU average, but the US as a whole is behind EU average.
Current best EV market is Norway, with more than 50% of new registrations, followed by other Scandinavian countries.
So clearly Scandinavia, California / Oregon / Washington / Hawaii and further ahead than everybody else in US or EU in the S adoption curve, and Norway is expected to be the first country in the world to reach market saturation, i.e. the third and last step in the S curve.
Presumably mass adoption really begins when a product (EV in this case) becomes cheap enough and practical enough that most people will think of it being a better solution than existing technology, although of course different market segments will move at different speeds. For the US I think the critical market segments (especially outside the coasts) will be large SUVs and of course pickup trucks, which are now very much in early adoption phase (Rivian R1T, Ford F0-150-E aka Lightning).
LMP | Liability Matching Portfolio | safe portfolio: TIPS ladder + I-bonds + Treasuries | risky portfolio: US stocks / US REIT / International stocks
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
2017 Toyota Prius driven 10k miles a year / 56mpg = 178 gallons x 3.89 = $692.42 annually vs a 30mpg car would = $1296.67. Savings = $604 annually.
Light weight baby!
-
- Posts: 585
- Joined: Tue Oct 06, 2020 10:09 am
Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles
This is interesting, I think of our neighbors next door with a Model Y and a Subaru Ascent. Whenever they (all 4 of them) are in the car together they are in the Ascent.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 5:35 pmThat's very interesting. Thanks for the link. It also noted that "households with an EV are almost four times less likely to be a single-vehicle household."vineviz wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:37 amjust frank wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:15 am Totally sensible. I think for folks with large cargo space needs or heavy towing, ICE is gonna be the way to go for a long time. Less so 'vanity trucks' in my neighborhood used for single passenger commuting. LOL.
I understand why Ford is starting with the F-150 Lightning, but I think its a vanity truck, or maybe for a contractor with low mileage and no towing requirements, but it is not a 1:1 drop in replacement for the F-150. If Ford tried to sell me on the idea it was, I could imagine having buyers remorse and being ticked off.
I probably wouldn't find it surprising if I'd thought about it a little harder, but I was interested to discover that (as of the latest available data) 60% of U.S. households with an EV also had a non-electric SUV, truck, or minivan and that most households who had both an EV and an ICE vehicle put more miles on the ICE vehicle.
https://energyathaas.wordpress.com/2021 ... ouseholds/
It makes perfect sense that an ICE would be used over an EV for long trips, but it seems to me that such driving only represents the minority of the miles driven by most households. It appears that the authors were also perplexed by the finding that ICE vehicles are driven more miles than EVs in households with both.
At any rate, it seems very likely that with existing technology, most single-vehicle households will continue to prefer an ICE, and most households with an EV will also have an ICE. The technological limitations of EVs' range have certainly not been easy to resolve.