Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

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Jags4186
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Jags4186 »

NewbieBogle007 wrote: Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:58 am
billaster wrote: Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:38 am I used the Energy Dept. tool valuethinker linked to compare the Tesla Model 3, Camry ICE, Camry hybrid and Nissan LEAF. The bend at 5 years is due to the assumption of a 5-year loan.

Image

It's clear that the Tesla costs more all the way out to 15 years. This is because of its very high price, even though I used the base price $45K Model 3 in this comparison. The Tesla saves about $1,300 a year compared to the Camry ICE, but it takes more than 15 years to make up the initial price difference.

The Tesla saves only $800 per year compared to the Camry hybrid and never makes up the initial price difference. The Camry hybrid is lower total cost than the Tesla Model 3.

The Camry hybrid saves about $500 per year compared to the Camry ICE, so probably a good deal if you are deciding between the two.

The big winner is the Nissan LEAF, based on its much lower initial price. The bottom line is that if your primary consideration is EV economy, don't buy a Tesla, buy a LEAF. A Tesla will never make up for its high initial price.


I used 12,000 miles annual, half city and half highway. $4.15 per gallon gas and 12 cents per kwh electricity.
Wow - this is eye opening.
Most Bogleheads don’t do loans for a car however.
Seriously reconsidering just going ICE for my next car.
The primary issue with comparing the Tesla 3 to a Camry is that people are for the most part not cross shopping a Tesla 3 and a Camry. They're cross shopping a Tesla 3 and a BMW 330. I'm curious what the math looks like when you do that comparison.
CletusCaddy
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by CletusCaddy »

Jags4186 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:01 pm
NewbieBogle007 wrote: Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:58 am
billaster wrote: Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:38 am I used the Energy Dept. tool valuethinker linked to compare the Tesla Model 3, Camry ICE, Camry hybrid and Nissan LEAF. The bend at 5 years is due to the assumption of a 5-year loan.

Image

It's clear that the Tesla costs more all the way out to 15 years. This is because of its very high price, even though I used the base price $45K Model 3 in this comparison. The Tesla saves about $1,300 a year compared to the Camry ICE, but it takes more than 15 years to make up the initial price difference.

The Tesla saves only $800 per year compared to the Camry hybrid and never makes up the initial price difference. The Camry hybrid is lower total cost than the Tesla Model 3.

The Camry hybrid saves about $500 per year compared to the Camry ICE, so probably a good deal if you are deciding between the two.

The big winner is the Nissan LEAF, based on its much lower initial price. The bottom line is that if your primary consideration is EV economy, don't buy a Tesla, buy a LEAF. A Tesla will never make up for its high initial price.


I used 12,000 miles annual, half city and half highway. $4.15 per gallon gas and 12 cents per kwh electricity.
Wow - this is eye opening.
Most Bogleheads don’t do loans for a car however.
Seriously reconsidering just going ICE for my next car.
The primary issue with comparing the Tesla 3 to a Camry is that people are for the most part not cross shopping a Tesla 3 and a Camry. They're cross shopping a Tesla 3 and a BMW 330. I'm curious what the math looks like when you do that comparison.
And nowadays, the BMW i4 as well
CletusCaddy
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by CletusCaddy »

billaster wrote: Mon Aug 01, 2022 11:38 am I used the Energy Dept. tool valuethinker linked to compare the Tesla Model 3, Camry ICE, Camry hybrid and Nissan LEAF. The bend at 5 years is due to the assumption of a 5-year loan.

Image

It's clear that the Tesla costs more all the way out to 15 years. This is because of its very high price, even though I used the base price $45K Model 3 in this comparison. The Tesla saves about $1,300 a year compared to the Camry ICE, but it takes more than 15 years to make up the initial price difference.

The Tesla saves only $800 per year compared to the Camry hybrid and never makes up the initial price difference. The Camry hybrid is lower total cost than the Tesla Model 3.

The Camry hybrid saves about $500 per year compared to the Camry ICE, so probably a good deal if you are deciding between the two.

The big winner is the Nissan LEAF, based on its much lower initial price. The bottom line is that if your primary consideration is EV economy, don't buy a Tesla, buy a LEAF. A Tesla will never make up for its high initial price.


I used 12,000 miles annual, half city and half highway. $4.15 per gallon gas and 12 cents per kwh electricity.
This doesn’t make any sense because it doesn’t take into account the biggest operating cost of a vehicle, which is depreciation. Are we assuming all the cars depreciate fully and equally? If so that is a terrible assumption.

Take out the loan cost, put back in loan interest and annual depreciation.

The Tesla Model 3 has depreciated single digits since it came out 5 years ago. Much less than any ICE car, including any Toyota. Only exception might be sports exotics.
02nz
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 02nz »

Jags4186 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:01 pm The primary issue with comparing the Tesla 3 to a Camry is that people are for the most part not cross shopping a Tesla 3 and a Camry. They're cross shopping a Tesla 3 and a BMW 330. I'm curious what the math looks like when you do that comparison.
Here you go. (Assumptions: 12,000 miles/year, 50-50 city-highway, electricity at CA average of $0.23/KWHr, gas at national average of $4.13, to satisfy the "but gas is going to get so much cheaper" crowd):

Image
aquaman
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by aquaman »

02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:38 pm
aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:13 pm Is there a reason that you are talking about the number of stalls? The number of stalls is a completely different metric, and only tells you how many EV's a fast charging location can handle at any one time.
The number of vehicles that can actually charge at the same time is absolutely relevant, if anything more relevant than how many "stations" there are. For example, while Tesla stations are only around 20% of the number of stations, each station has more connectors on average, so that they make up around half of the total DCFC connectors available. Of course, in rural/isolated areas without a station, increasing the density of stations matters (accessibility), but beyond a certain point it's the availability that matters.
aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:13 pm The US only has about 6K fast charging locations, which is roughly 4% of the 145K gas stations out there.
This also has been discussed upthread already, in hunoraut's and billaster's responses to you on this exact issue. I don't see the need to keep running around in circles, unless you have new information or perspectives to contribute.
Very respectfully, you don't want people to keep accusing you of presenting misleading and biased information, which I understand. Then, however, in response to a poster's statement that "the EV fast-charging infra is non-existent right now" you posted a highly misleading statement about the number of stalls.

In response to my very diplomatic clarification above, you stated that you "don't see the need to keep running around in circles, unless you have new information or perspectives to contribute." The only reason that the clarification was required was because of the misleading information in your post.

Once again, the number of stalls has to do with the number of EV's that a particular charging location can process at any one time. The point that has been made in this thread time and time again isn't the lines at the fast chargers (which is what the number of stalls affects), but the fact that there are so few fast charging locations out there.
Last edited by aquaman on Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
02nz
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 02nz »

CletusCaddy wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:09 pm This doesn’t make any sense because it doesn’t take into account the biggest operating cost of a vehicle, which is depreciation. Are we assuming all the cars depreciate fully and equally? If so that is a terrible assumption.

Take out the loan cost, put back in loan interest and annual depreciation.

The Tesla Model 3 has depreciated single digits since it came out 5 years ago. Much less than any ICE car, including any Toyota. Only exception might be sports exotics.
This was raised upthread. As I noted there's limited data, and the recent data is arguably distorted by the huge surge in demand for EVs. Right now EVs have insanely high resale value, not limited to Teslas (e.g., purchased a Niro EV a year ago for $32K before incentives, worth $37K today). I still think EVs (esp. Teslas and newer EVs, not the "compliance vehicles" like the Focus Electric) will hold up as well as or better than ICE vehicles in value long-term, but the EV skeptics have a different view, based on, as far as I can tell, no data or anything more than a hunch.
CletusCaddy
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by CletusCaddy »

02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:15 pm
CletusCaddy wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:09 pm This doesn’t make any sense because it doesn’t take into account the biggest operating cost of a vehicle, which is depreciation. Are we assuming all the cars depreciate fully and equally? If so that is a terrible assumption.

Take out the loan cost, put back in loan interest and annual depreciation.

The Tesla Model 3 has depreciated single digits since it came out 5 years ago. Much less than any ICE car, including any Toyota. Only exception might be sports exotics.
This was raised upthread. As I noted there's limited data, and the recent data is arguably distorted by the huge surge in demand for EVs. Right now EVs have insanely high resale value, not limited to Teslas (e.g., purchased a Niro EV a year ago for $32K before incentives, worth $37K today). I still think EVs (esp. Teslas and newer EVs, not the "compliance vehicles" like the Focus Electric) will hold up as well as or better than ICE vehicles in value long-term, but the EV skeptics have a different view, based on, as far as I can tell, no data or anything more than a hunch.
Yeah if we’re going off hunches I would say that the in-progress phase-out of ICE cars by all major manufacturers would not be kind to ICE depreciation curves.
RCL
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by RCL »

stoptothink wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:14 pm
aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:04 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:44 am The US is at an interesting "tipping point" on EVs. The products have become mainstream acceptable, but they are more costly (to buy) and the infrastructure is not there at the density it needs to be.
Correct, although just how "mainstream acceptable" they are in the US isn't straightforward either. Here's the data on EV registration by state as of June, 2021: https://electrek.co/2021/08/24/current- ... -stack-up/

As you can see, they are not even close to being evenly spread throughout the US.
Utah has above average EV registrations nationally, but we just returned from a week in the Bay Area. Multiple times we saw entire rows of Teslas in a parking lot. At one point, my kids (who both think of Teslas as I did a Lamborghini Countach when I was in elementary school, even though we have a neighbor and countless friends with them) counted 9 consecutive Teslas pass us by on the highway as we were stuck on an off-ramp. It was definitely eye-opening.
Just an FYI, this is data from June 2020, and the page was updated in 2021
CletusCaddy
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by CletusCaddy »

stoptothink wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:14 pm
aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:04 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 10:44 am The US is at an interesting "tipping point" on EVs. The products have become mainstream acceptable, but they are more costly (to buy) and the infrastructure is not there at the density it needs to be.
Correct, although just how "mainstream acceptable" they are in the US isn't straightforward either. Here's the data on EV registration by state as of June, 2021: https://electrek.co/2021/08/24/current- ... -stack-up/

As you can see, they are not even close to being evenly spread throughout the US.
Utah has above average EV registrations nationally, but we just returned from a week in the Bay Area. Multiple times we saw entire rows of Teslas in a parking lot. At one point, my kids (who both think of Teslas as I did a Lamborghini Countach when I was in elementary school, even though we have a neighbor and countless friends with them) counted 9 consecutive Teslas pass us by on the highway as we were stuck on an off-ramp. It was definitely eye-opening.
In downtown San Mateo last week I counted how many Teslas were parked along the center drag (B Street). No less than 15% of the cars were Teslas. And that’s not including all the other brands of EV. And this reflects previous years’ buying behavior, current buyers are no doubt even more weighted toward EVs
aquaman
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by aquaman »

02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:56 pm
aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:13 pm Yes, and it's a function of the price of gas, which even with the recent declines remains about $1/gallon higher than it was at this time last year.

If gas prices continue to drop and return to their averages, the economics of buying an EV would change dramatically.
That's your opinion.
My post was made in response to your earlier statement that EV's are selling fast and "for much higher markups than ICE vehicles." I don't think that my post is that at higher gas prices, the economics favor EV's and, therefore, increase the EV markups is controversial or debatable. Likewise, when gas prices drop, in the absence of additional tax and other incentives, the interest in EV's (and hybrids and other more fuel efficient vehicles) drops as well.

I don't disagree that EV adoption will continue even when gas prices return to their historical levels, and actually hope that EV adoption continues to move forward and is successful.
02nz
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 02nz »

aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:12 pm
02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:38 pm
aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:13 pm Is there a reason that you are talking about the number of stalls? The number of stalls is a completely different metric, and only tells you how many EV's a fast charging location can handle at any one time.
The number of vehicles that can actually charge at the same time is absolutely relevant, if anything more relevant than how many "stations" there are. For example, while Tesla stations are only around 20% of the number of stations, each station has more connectors on average, so that they make up around half of the total DCFC connectors available. Of course, in rural/isolated areas without a station, increasing the density of stations matters (accessibility), but beyond a certain point it's the availability that matters.
aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:13 pm The US only has about 6K fast charging locations, which is roughly 4% of the 145K gas stations out there.
This also has been discussed upthread already, in hunoraut's and billaster's responses to you on this exact issue. I don't see the need to keep running around in circles, unless you have new information or perspectives to contribute.
Very respectfully, you don't want people to keep accusing you of presenting misleading and biased information, which I understand. Then, however, in response to a poster's statement that "the EV fast-charging infra is non-existent right now" you posted a highly misleading statement about the number of stalls.

In response to my very diplomatic clarification above, you stated that "don't see the need to keep running around in circles, unless you have new information or perspectives to contribute." The only reason that the clarification was required was because of the misleading information in your post.

Once again, the number of stalls has to do with the number of EV's that a particular charging location can process at any one time. The point that has been made in this thread time and time again isn't the lines at the fast chargers (which is what the number of stalls affects), but the fact that there are so few fast charging locations out there.
Why is this misleading? Both the number of stations and the number of connectors have been discussed upthread. They are related parts of the same issue of charging infrastructure. I'm in California, if you think lines at fast chargers aren't an issue, then you haven't been to a Tesla supercharger at peak times here. On my recent road trip (in a non-Tesla EV), I always had more than enough range to reach the next station, but at one all 3 connectors were occupied o I had to wait. That's a barrier to EV adoption. As I said above, of course the number of stations may be more relevant elsewhere - for example, in North Dakota there are long stretches with no DCFC at all, there of course it's more important to increase the number of stations so that it's possible to travel that stretch by EV.
Last edited by 02nz on Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
billaster
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

bloom2708 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:44 pm
aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:13 pm
The US only has about 6K fast charging locations, which is roughly 4% of the 145K gas stations out there.
I was mulling over what the Costco gas station lines would look like (and how many pumps would be required) if it took 30-45 minutes to fill your ICE car with gasoline. The Costco gas station would be the size of a football field. :shock:
Those folks are filling their cars at least once a week at the pump. Keep in mind that most people are charging their EVs at home and maybe only a few times a year using public chargers when on long trips. For that reason, those people only really need chargers on major highways. Once you get to your destination, one local charge might last you all week before your return. So you don't need chargers on every corner.

But for sure more charging stations will be necessary for the adoption of those who can't charge at home.
cmr79
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

Out of curiosity, has anyone seen analysis suggesting that we don't need nearly as many DCFC stations as has been projected? I've heard numbers of more than 100k DCFC stations (GAO testimony 4/2022), but that would be 2/3 as many as gas stations, and I just can't imagine that being true. We may be outliers in that we only do maybe one trip per year in which we drive >300 miles in a day, but if we could conceivably never need to use DCFC over the course of a year as an EV-only family compared to multiple trips to the gas station per month with ICE vehicles currently due to home charging, the need for a comparable number of DCFC stations to gas stations just doesn't make sense to me.

Although, I suppose I did have to wait in line for a pump the last time I was at a gas station...
billaster
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

CletusCaddy wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:09 pm This doesn’t make any sense because it doesn’t take into account the biggest operating cost of a vehicle, which is depreciation. Are we assuming all the cars depreciate fully and equally? If so that is a terrible assumption.

Take out the loan cost, put back in loan interest and annual depreciation.

The Tesla Model 3 has depreciated single digits since it came out 5 years ago. Much less than any ICE car, including any Toyota. Only exception might be sports exotics.
The chart goes out to 15 years. I don't think we have enough useful information on depreciation of ICE vs EV cars over that range, especially given the last two years of crazy used car prices.
stoptothink
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by stoptothink »

02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:26 pm
aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:12 pm
02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:38 pm
aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:13 pm Is there a reason that you are talking about the number of stalls? The number of stalls is a completely different metric, and only tells you how many EV's a fast charging location can handle at any one time.
The number of vehicles that can actually charge at the same time is absolutely relevant, if anything more relevant than how many "stations" there are. For example, while Tesla stations are only around 20% of the number of stations, each station has more connectors on average, so that they make up around half of the total DCFC connectors available. Of course, in rural/isolated areas without a station, increasing the density of stations matters (accessibility), but beyond a certain point it's the availability that matters.
aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:13 pm The US only has about 6K fast charging locations, which is roughly 4% of the 145K gas stations out there.
This also has been discussed upthread already, in hunoraut's and billaster's responses to you on this exact issue. I don't see the need to keep running around in circles, unless you have new information or perspectives to contribute.
Very respectfully, you don't want people to keep accusing you of presenting misleading and biased information, which I understand. Then, however, in response to a poster's statement that "the EV fast-charging infra is non-existent right now" you posted a highly misleading statement about the number of stalls.

In response to my very diplomatic clarification above, you stated that "don't see the need to keep running around in circles, unless you have new information or perspectives to contribute." The only reason that the clarification was required was because of the misleading information in your post.

Once again, the number of stalls has to do with the number of EV's that a particular charging location can process at any one time. The point that has been made in this thread time and time again isn't the lines at the fast chargers (which is what the number of stalls affects), but the fact that there are so few fast charging locations out there.
On my recent road trip (not in a Tesla), I always had more than enough range to reach the next station, but at one all 3 connectors were occupied o I had to wait. That's a barrier to EV adoption. As I said above, of course the number of stations may be more relevant elsewhere - for example, in North Dakota there are long stretches with no DCFC at all, there of course it's more important to increase the number of stations so that it's possible to travel that stretch by EV.
On our trip last week we briefly stopped at the Vacaville Outlet Mall. They have a Supercharger station there with like a dozen ports (I just checked, there are actually 16). There appeared to be no open ports when we got there or when we left, but there were a bunch of Teslas parked in spots closest to the ports. I would assume the owners went shopping and were hoping to come out of a store to an open port. Definitely not something I'm likely to see in Utah.
02nz
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 02nz »

cmr79 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:31 pm Out of curiosity, has anyone seen analysis suggesting that we don't need nearly as many DCFC stations as has been projected? I've heard numbers of more than 100k DCFC stations (GAO testimony 4/2022), but that would be 2/3 as many as gas stations, and I just can't imagine that being true. We may be outliers in that we only do maybe one trip per year in which we drive >300 miles in a day, but if we could conceivably never need to use DCFC over the course of a year as an EV-only family compared to multiple trips to the gas station per month with ICE vehicles currently due to home charging, the need for a comparable number of DCFC stations to gas stations just doesn't make sense to me.

Although, I suppose I did have to wait in line for a pump the last time I was at a gas station...
100K DCFC stations seems like a lot (and probably more than we need, I'd agree). Do you have the source link? I wonder if they meant DCFC connectors, of which we currently have 23K? (Prepare for incoming outrage that we're "misleading" people by talking about connectors!)
psteinx
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by psteinx »

Re: Ability to easily charge at home.

According to the census data I found (as of 2019):
87,379,000/139,684,000 = 62.6% of housing units are single family detached.

Not every detached housing unit is a great candidate for home charging (but a pretty high chunk are).

Not every attached/multifamily unit is a no-go for home charging (but a pretty high chunk are).

There are probably more drivers/vehicles, on average, for average single family detached homes, so the actual % of vehicles that are parked at/by single family detached is probably above 62.6%. But then again, it's pretty common in my neighborhood of mostly 2 car and some 3+ car garages for there to be vehicles in the driveway/street, either because there are more vehicles than garage spots, or because 1 or more garage spots is used for general storage/workshop purposes, or both.
cmr79
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:38 pm
cmr79 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:31 pm Out of curiosity, has anyone seen analysis suggesting that we don't need nearly as many DCFC stations as has been projected? I've heard numbers of more than 100k DCFC stations (GAO testimony 4/2022), but that would be 2/3 as many as gas stations, and I just can't imagine that being true. We may be outliers in that we only do maybe one trip per year in which we drive >300 miles in a day, but if we could conceivably never need to use DCFC over the course of a year as an EV-only family compared to multiple trips to the gas station per month with ICE vehicles currently due to home charging, the need for a comparable number of DCFC stations to gas stations just doesn't make sense to me.

Although, I suppose I did have to wait in line for a pump the last time I was at a gas station...
100K DCFC stations seems like a lot (and probably more than we need, I'd agree). Do you have the source link? I wonder if they meant DCFC connectors, of which we currently have 23K? (Prepare for incoming outrage that we're "misleading" people by talking about connectors!)
https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/05/the-u ... -it-needs/

I think the full testimony is here, but I haven't read it:
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-22-105931

ETA: now that I re-read through this, I think the author of the tech crunch article might have misinterpreted "stations" as connectors and that this wasn't really relevant to what I was searching...
Last edited by cmr79 on Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
02nz
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 02nz »

cmr79 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:49 pm
02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:38 pm
cmr79 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:31 pm Out of curiosity, has anyone seen analysis suggesting that we don't need nearly as many DCFC stations as has been projected? I've heard numbers of more than 100k DCFC stations (GAO testimony 4/2022), but that would be 2/3 as many as gas stations, and I just can't imagine that being true. We may be outliers in that we only do maybe one trip per year in which we drive >300 miles in a day, but if we could conceivably never need to use DCFC over the course of a year as an EV-only family compared to multiple trips to the gas station per month with ICE vehicles currently due to home charging, the need for a comparable number of DCFC stations to gas stations just doesn't make sense to me.

Although, I suppose I did have to wait in line for a pump the last time I was at a gas station...
100K DCFC stations seems like a lot (and probably more than we need, I'd agree). Do you have the source link? I wonder if they meant DCFC connectors, of which we currently have 23K? (Prepare for incoming outrage that we're "misleading" people by talking about connectors!)
https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/05/the-u ... -it-needs/

I think the full testimony is here, but I haven't read it:
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-22-105931
That's talking about the federal government's fleet, and it has a figure of 100K stations (although probably they really mean connectors). And I think for fleet use this probably means mostly L2, not DCFC.
aquaman
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by aquaman »

02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:26 pm Why is this misleading? Both the number of stations and the number of connectors have been discussed upthread.
You are the only poster in this entire very large thread who has brought up the number of stalls. Every complaint in this thread about the charging infrastructure has mentioned the paucity of the fast charging locations, not the lines to get one.

The only reason that the number of stalls is mentioned in your posts is because larger numbers make the charging situation seem better than it is, even though the number of stalls has nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that there are so few fast charging locations out there.

The same tactic was used earlier in this thread, when a poster mentioned that there were 46K public charging locations in the US, compared to 145K gas stations. So, in the poster's words, the charging infrastructure is "rapidly becoming a non-issue." When I looked it up, I quickly discovered that of the 46K or so public charging stations, 41K are Level 2 ones, which are completely useless during a road trip (unless it's at your destination, like at a hotel).
They are related parts of the same issue of charging infrastructure. I'm in California, if you think lines at fast chargers aren't an issue, then you haven't been to a Tesla supercharger at peak times here. On my recent road trip (in a non-Tesla EV), I always had more than enough range to reach the next station, but at one all 3 connectors were occupied o I had to wait. That's a barrier to EV adoption.
I don't disagree with any of this, but it has nothing to do with the specific points and complaints to which you've been responding.
cmr79
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:52 pm
cmr79 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:49 pm
02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:38 pm
cmr79 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:31 pm Out of curiosity, has anyone seen analysis suggesting that we don't need nearly as many DCFC stations as has been projected? I've heard numbers of more than 100k DCFC stations (GAO testimony 4/2022), but that would be 2/3 as many as gas stations, and I just can't imagine that being true. We may be outliers in that we only do maybe one trip per year in which we drive >300 miles in a day, but if we could conceivably never need to use DCFC over the course of a year as an EV-only family compared to multiple trips to the gas station per month with ICE vehicles currently due to home charging, the need for a comparable number of DCFC stations to gas stations just doesn't make sense to me.

Although, I suppose I did have to wait in line for a pump the last time I was at a gas station...
100K DCFC stations seems like a lot (and probably more than we need, I'd agree). Do you have the source link? I wonder if they meant DCFC connectors, of which we currently have 23K? (Prepare for incoming outrage that we're "misleading" people by talking about connectors!)
https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/05/the-u ... -it-needs/

I think the full testimony is here, but I haven't read it:
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-22-105931
That's talking about the federal government's fleet, and it has a figure of 100K stations (although probably they really mean connectors). And I think for fleet use this probably means mostly L2, not DCFC.
Yes, I misinterpreted (and think the author did too).

This study suggests a projected need of about 10 DCFC ports per 1,000 EVs, assuming 3.4 stations per 1,000 EVs with an average of 3 ports each. Which seems off to me as well...most DCFC stations I have seen seem to have 8-16 level 3 ports, though perhaps that is because they are predominantly on major highways?
02nz
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 02nz »

cmr79 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:00 pm
02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:52 pm
cmr79 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:49 pm
02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:38 pm
cmr79 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:31 pm Out of curiosity, has anyone seen analysis suggesting that we don't need nearly as many DCFC stations as has been projected? I've heard numbers of more than 100k DCFC stations (GAO testimony 4/2022), but that would be 2/3 as many as gas stations, and I just can't imagine that being true. We may be outliers in that we only do maybe one trip per year in which we drive >300 miles in a day, but if we could conceivably never need to use DCFC over the course of a year as an EV-only family compared to multiple trips to the gas station per month with ICE vehicles currently due to home charging, the need for a comparable number of DCFC stations to gas stations just doesn't make sense to me.

Although, I suppose I did have to wait in line for a pump the last time I was at a gas station...
100K DCFC stations seems like a lot (and probably more than we need, I'd agree). Do you have the source link? I wonder if they meant DCFC connectors, of which we currently have 23K? (Prepare for incoming outrage that we're "misleading" people by talking about connectors!)
https://techcrunch.com/2022/04/05/the-u ... -it-needs/

I think the full testimony is here, but I haven't read it:
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-22-105931
That's talking about the federal government's fleet, and it has a figure of 100K stations (although probably they really mean connectors). And I think for fleet use this probably means mostly L2, not DCFC.
Yes, I misinterpreted (and think the author did too).

This study suggests a projected need of about 10 DCFC ports per 1,000 EVs, assuming 3.4 stations per 1,000 EVs with an average of 3 ports each. Which seems off to me as well...most DCFC stations I have seen seem to have 8-16 level 3 ports, though perhaps that is because they are predominantly on major highways?
The more recently built ones, esp. Electrify America, tend to have more ports per station, while older ones (like the EVgo stations I visited on my road trip) tend to have more like 2-4. This is because - in spite of another poster's assertions here that the number of connectors is not relevant and any mention is an attempt to mislead people - as EV adoption continues, increasing the number of ports is more important than increasing the number of stations, at least in those areas that already have a decent density of stations, such as coastal cities.
cmr79
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

Gotcha. Perhaps that is the reason for the low estimate of ports/station. Anyway, if that projection is correct, and we were to replace all vehicles in the US with EVs (I know this isn't realistic), it would suggest we need somewhere in the neighborhood of 276,000,000 vehicles x 3.4 DCFC stations/1,000 vehicles = 938,000 DCFC stations. If you grouped those "stations" together so that each was 9 ports instead of 3 to better reflect (what I think of as) reality, that is still more than 300,000 stations, twice the number of gas stations. I just don't see the need for that...or the commercial demand/viability. I'm assuming at some EV saturation point where there are enough ports at each station and not a terribly long gap between stations, the number of EVs and the number of DCFC stations/ports needed will somewhat dissociate?
02nz
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 02nz »

aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:52 pm
02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:26 pm Why is this misleading? Both the number of stations and the number of connectors have been discussed upthread.
You are the only poster in this entire very large thread who has brought up the number of stalls. Every complaint in this thread about the charging infrastructure has mentioned the paucity of the fast charging locations, not the lines to get one.

The only reason that the number of stalls is mentioned in your posts is because larger numbers make the charging situation seem better than it is, even though the number of stalls has nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that there are so few fast charging locations out there.

The same tactic was used earlier in this thread, when a poster mentioned that there were 46K public charging locations in the US, compared to 145K gas stations. So, in the poster's words, the charging infrastructure is "rapidly becoming a non-issue." When I looked it up, I quickly discovered that of the 46K or so public charging stations, 41K are Level 2 ones, which are completely useless during a road trip (unless it's at your destination, like at a hotel).
They are related parts of the same issue of charging infrastructure. I'm in California, if you think lines at fast chargers aren't an issue, then you haven't been to a Tesla supercharger at peak times here. On my recent road trip (in a non-Tesla EV), I always had more than enough range to reach the next station, but at one all 3 connectors were occupied o I had to wait. That's a barrier to EV adoption.
I don't disagree with any of this, but it has nothing to do with the specific points and complaints to which you've been responding.
See the other posts on this page for an example of why it's important to distinguish between stations and connectors/stalls. Now maybe I presumed more knowledge on the part of others than I should have when I used the terminology, which is certainly not misleading for those familiar with the basics of EV technology and infrastructure. Anyway, there was certainly no intent to mislead. If you can't get over that, sorry I can't help you.
Last edited by 02nz on Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Californiastate
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Californiastate »

I was hoping hydrogen vehicles would have caught on. 5 minute fill times to get 300 miles sounds impressive. Use all of that solar and wind to crack hydrogen from water. The EV battery charging and range issue would be eliminated.
02nz
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 02nz »

cmr79 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:08 pm Gotcha. Perhaps that is the reason for the low estimate of ports/station. Anyway, if that projection is correct, and we were to replace all vehicles in the US with EVs (I know this isn't realistic), it would suggest we need somewhere in the neighborhood of 276,000,000 vehicles x 3.4 DCFC stations/1,000 vehicles = 938,000 DCFC stations. If you grouped those "stations" together so that each was 9 ports instead of 3 to better reflect (what I think of as) reality, that is still more than 300,000 stations, twice the number of gas stations. I just don't see the need for that...or the commercial demand/viability. I'm assuming at some EV saturation point where there are enough ports at each station and not a terribly long gap between stations, the number of EVs and the number of DCFC stations/ports needed will somewhat dissociate?
My scan of the GAO report did not find any mention of DC fast charging. I'm not an expert on fleets, but my guess is that they are not / will not be mostly charged using DC, but rather L2. That's because most fleets' needs can be met simply and cheaply by charging them overnight at one lot (or number of lots) with L2 connectors, rather than installing expensive DC fast chargers. And so even if you project the numbers to all the cars in the country, the hurdle is not adding 938K DC fast charging connectors or even L2 connectors, as almost any house can already do L1 charging and can be equipped with L2 relatively cheaply.
Last edited by 02nz on Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
02nz
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 02nz »

Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:14 pm I was hoping hydrogen vehicles would have caught on. 5 minute fill times to get 300 miles sounds impressive. Use all of that solar and wind to crack hydrogen from water. The EV battery charging and range issue would be eliminated.
You and the Japanese carmakers, which went with hydrogen fuel cell and largely neglected EVs until very recently. I think there are a number of downsides, including safety (at least perceived - in practice I think it's fine) and very high cost to build the stations. Also, those vehicles are inherently much less efficient than battery EVs (in terms of distance traveled per unit of energy) - for example the Toyota Mirai is rated at 65-70 MPGe, while similar EVs get about twice that. Especially now that we have EVs that can get to close to 300 miles in 15-20 minutes, hydrogen is unlikely to win out for passenger vehicles. For other applications like semis, it still has great potential.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by neilpilot »

bloom2708 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:44 pm
aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:13 pm
The US only has about 6K fast charging locations, which is roughly 4% of the 145K gas stations out there.
I was mulling over what the Costco gas station lines would look like (and how many pumps would be required) if it took 30-45 minutes to fill your ICE car with gasoline. The Costco gas station would be the size of a football field. :shock:
Maybe not, since most ICE owners would be fueling their cars at home in their garage! :beer
02nz
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 02nz »

neilpilot wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:48 pm
bloom2708 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:44 pm
aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:13 pm
The US only has about 6K fast charging locations, which is roughly 4% of the 145K gas stations out there.
I was mulling over what the Costco gas station lines would look like (and how many pumps would be required) if it took 30-45 minutes to fill your ICE car with gasoline. The Costco gas station would be the size of a football field. :shock:
Maybe not, since most ICE owners would be fueling their cars at home in their garage! :beer
That would be something! But I assume you meant EV owners.
Californiastate
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Californiastate »

neilpilot wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:48 pm
bloom2708 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:44 pm
aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:13 pm
The US only has about 6K fast charging locations, which is roughly 4% of the 145K gas stations out there.
I was mulling over what the Costco gas station lines would look like (and how many pumps would be required) if it took 30-45 minutes to fill your ICE car with gasoline. The Costco gas station would be the size of a football field. :shock:
Maybe not, since most ICE owners would be fueling their cars at home in their garage! :beer
We have 2 vehicles that cover about 30k a year combined. Who do you know that has 2 Level 2 chargers in their garage?
02nz
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 02nz »

Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:59 pm
neilpilot wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:48 pm
bloom2708 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:44 pm
aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:13 pm
The US only has about 6K fast charging locations, which is roughly 4% of the 145K gas stations out there.
I was mulling over what the Costco gas station lines would look like (and how many pumps would be required) if it took 30-45 minutes to fill your ICE car with gasoline. The Costco gas station would be the size of a football field. :shock:
Maybe not, since most ICE owners would be fueling their cars at home in their garage! :beer
We have 2 vehicles that cover about 30k a year combined. Who do you know that has 2 Level 2 chargers in their garage?
That's about 80 miles/day, easily covered by one L2 charger, or (most likely) even 2 L1 chargers that require no special wiring.
Californiastate
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Californiastate »

02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:11 pm
Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:59 pm
neilpilot wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:48 pm
bloom2708 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:44 pm
aquaman wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:13 pm
The US only has about 6K fast charging locations, which is roughly 4% of the 145K gas stations out there.
I was mulling over what the Costco gas station lines would look like (and how many pumps would be required) if it took 30-45 minutes to fill your ICE car with gasoline. The Costco gas station would be the size of a football field. :shock:
Maybe not, since most ICE owners would be fueling their cars at home in their garage! :beer
We have 2 vehicles that cover about 30k a year combined. Who do you know that has 2 Level 2 chargers in their garage?
That's about 80 miles/day, easily covered by one L2 charger, or (most likely) even 2 L1 chargers that require no special wiring.
The mileage isn't linear. 80 miles a day isn't going to cut it. My current schedule doesn't revolve around the fueling of our vehicles. I don't see the incentive to settle for a less convenient option. I also would like to hear if 2 Level 2 chargers is even feasible on a 200A service that already has AC, pool equipment, oven, and other standard household electrical devices.
cmr79
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:18 pm
cmr79 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:08 pm Gotcha. Perhaps that is the reason for the low estimate of ports/station. Anyway, if that projection is correct, and we were to replace all vehicles in the US with EVs (I know this isn't realistic), it would suggest we need somewhere in the neighborhood of 276,000,000 vehicles x 3.4 DCFC stations/1,000 vehicles = 938,000 DCFC stations. If you grouped those "stations" together so that each was 9 ports instead of 3 to better reflect (what I think of as) reality, that is still more than 300,000 stations, twice the number of gas stations. I just don't see the need for that...or the commercial demand/viability. I'm assuming at some EV saturation point where there are enough ports at each station and not a terribly long gap between stations, the number of EVs and the number of DCFC stations/ports needed will somewhat dissociate?
My scan of the GAO report did not find any mention of DC fast charging. I'm not an expert on fleets, but my guess is that they are not / will not be mostly charged using DC, but rather L2. That's because most fleets' needs can be met simply and cheaply by charging them overnight at one lot (or number of lots) with L2 connectors, rather than installing expensive DC fast chargers. And so even if you project the numbers to all the cars in the country, the hurdle is not adding 938K DC fast charging connectors or even L2 connectors, as almost any house can already do L1 charging and can be equipped with L2 relatively cheaply.
Sorry; I thought I had included this link in the post but now see that it wasn't attached:
https://getjerry.com/studies/number-of- ... s-stations

This has a link to a different DoE report from which that data I cited came.
02nz
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by 02nz »

Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:31 pm
02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:11 pm
Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:59 pm
neilpilot wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:48 pm
bloom2708 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 2:44 pm

I was mulling over what the Costco gas station lines would look like (and how many pumps would be required) if it took 30-45 minutes to fill your ICE car with gasoline. The Costco gas station would be the size of a football field. :shock:
Maybe not, since most ICE owners would be fueling their cars at home in their garage! :beer
We have 2 vehicles that cover about 30k a year combined. Who do you know that has 2 Level 2 chargers in their garage?
That's about 80 miles/day, easily covered by one L2 charger, or (most likely) even 2 L1 chargers that require no special wiring.
The mileage isn't linear. 80 miles a day isn't going to cut it. My current schedule doesn't revolve around the fueling of our vehicles. I don't see the incentive to settle for a less convenient option. I also would like to hear if 2 Level 2 chargers is even feasible on a 200A service that already has AC, pool equipment, oven, and other standard household electrical devices.
Talk to an electrician. There are dual-connector charging stations. But in reality your needs are more than covered by 1 L2 charger. How often do you do 250 miles each, on BOTH cars, and then need to do the same again, BOTH cars, the very next day?
mervinj7
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by mervinj7 »

Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:31 pm The mileage isn't linear. 80 miles a day isn't going to cut it. My current schedule doesn't revolve around the fueling of our vehicles. I don't see the incentive to settle for a less convenient option. I also would like to hear if 2 Level 2 chargers is even feasible on a 200A service that already has AC, pool equipment, oven, and other standard household electrical devices.
If you really wanted to plug in two cars on one 40A branch circuit, you can use one of these.

https://store.clippercreek.com/dual-ev-charging-station
Californiastate
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Californiastate »

mervinj7 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:53 pm
Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:31 pm The mileage isn't linear. 80 miles a day isn't going to cut it. My current schedule doesn't revolve around the fueling of our vehicles. I don't see the incentive to settle for a less convenient option. I also would like to hear if 2 Level 2 chargers is even feasible on a 200A service that already has AC, pool equipment, oven, and other standard household electrical devices.
If you really wanted to plug in two cars on one 40A branch circuit, you can use one of these.

https://store.clippercreek.com/dual-ev-charging-station
That device is at best reducing each vehicle to a 20 amp circuit.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by mervinj7 »

Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 7:12 pm
mervinj7 wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:53 pm
Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:31 pm The mileage isn't linear. 80 miles a day isn't going to cut it. My current schedule doesn't revolve around the fueling of our vehicles. I don't see the incentive to settle for a less convenient option. I also would like to hear if 2 Level 2 chargers is even feasible on a 200A service that already has AC, pool equipment, oven, and other standard household electrical devices.
If you really wanted to plug in two cars on one 40A branch circuit, you can use one of these.

https://store.clippercreek.com/dual-ev-charging-station
That device is at best reducing each vehicle to a 20 amp circuit.
Or whenever the first one finishes the second one gets the full 40A. I can't tell if you are being serious but I am answering seriously. Is your concern is that every night you need to charge the full 250 mile range of two cars simultaneously? Most of us with two EVs will plug both in and both should finish by the morning with typical use cases.
Valuethinker
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Valuethinker »

CletusCaddy wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:19 pm
02nz wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:15 pm
CletusCaddy wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 3:09 pm This doesn’t make any sense because it doesn’t take into account the biggest operating cost of a vehicle, which is depreciation. Are we assuming all the cars depreciate fully and equally? If so that is a terrible assumption.

Take out the loan cost, put back in loan interest and annual depreciation.

The Tesla Model 3 has depreciated single digits since it came out 5 years ago. Much less than any ICE car, including any Toyota. Only exception might be sports exotics.
This was raised upthread. As I noted there's limited data, and the recent data is arguably distorted by the huge surge in demand for EVs. Right now EVs have insanely high resale value, not limited to Teslas (e.g., purchased a Niro EV a year ago for $32K before incentives, worth $37K today). I still think EVs (esp. Teslas and newer EVs, not the "compliance vehicles" like the Focus Electric) will hold up as well as or better than ICE vehicles in value long-term, but the EV skeptics have a different view, based on, as far as I can tell, no data or anything more than a hunch.
Yeah if we’re going off hunches I would say that the in-progress phase-out of ICE cars by all major manufacturers would not be kind to ICE depreciation curves.
EVs may have lower depreciation because they have fewer moving parts to go wrong. Inherently, they might last longer.

I think ICE vehicles could well gain a scarcity value as model choice & range reduces. In the way that the "muscle cars" of the late 1970s are now so valuable - they don't make engines that big anymore.

The "great miss" of the automotive era was external combustion engines ie steam powered cars. Which were technically superior in a number of ways (to early ICE cars). It took an outbreak of hoof-and-mouth disease (leading to all cattle and horse troughs being closed - and thus nowhere to recharge the water) plus a quite aggressive ad campaign by the likes of Henry Ford ("Steam cars explode!") and less business-minded management at steam car companies, to kill them. A classic case of "path dependence" like the QWERTY keyboard, 8 bit computer logic, ASCII etc.

So steam cars are very rare and very expensive now - Jay Leno has probably the best known collection.

The problem for ICE will come when there are no longer enough petrol (ie gasoline) stations. That will take quite a while, as it will no doubt be profitable to sell gasoline (in North America) for decades hence (fewer pumps & higher prices).

Different countries will move at different paces. Geopolitics has underlined European dependence on external supplies of oil and gas. Thus, Europe is likely to move faster. China as well for similar import substitution reasons. The US is currently the world's largest oil producer, so it is likely to move more slowly.

(A factor which may slow adoption in Europe is the power of the auto lobby. Car making is to Germany what Banking & Finance are to Britain in political & economic terms, I have heard it said. EVs are built with less labour & less engine differentiation. That said, Tesla has a factory in Berlin and battery "Gigafactories" are being built in Europe).
Valuethinker
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Valuethinker »

Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:31 pm
The mileage isn't linear. 80 miles a day isn't going to cut it. My current schedule doesn't revolve around the fueling of our vehicles. I don't see the incentive to settle for a less convenient option. I also would like to hear if 2 Level 2 chargers is even feasible on a 200A service that already has AC, pool equipment, oven, and other standard household electrical devices.
Welcome to the world of smart charging. The other equipment does not run all the time, and a smart charger can stop charging for the periods when it would overload the system (or drop down its demand). There's no particular reason (that I know of) why this would be difficult.

Most people will be happy with a Level 2 charger and charging overnight.
I don't see the incentive to settle for a less convenient option.
Things don't change, then they change seemingly overnight. Eventually it becomes too difficult to hold out & the majority of us wind up with a smartphone. I held on to my Blackberry for a very long time, but even I succumbed.

I have no doubt that EVs will be in the minority in the 2020s (by sheer numbers & car life, that's 100% certain). I also think that in the 2030s we may find that what our options are will have changed.

(Oddly enough, it was in Ursula K Leguin's 1971 novel The Lathe of Heaven (also a great made-for-PBS movie) where I first saw mention of universal electrical vehicles. "The future is here, it's just not evenly distributed" - William Gibson.)

Each nation & region will choose its own path. Geopolitics (& geology - the lack of domestic oil resources) says Europe (and China) go first. I would imagine South Korea as well. Japan the rollout has been retarded by the incumbents' focus on hybrid technology and on hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles.
Last edited by Valuethinker on Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
onourway
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by onourway »

Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:31 pm
The mileage isn't linear. 80 miles a day isn't going to cut it. My current schedule doesn't revolve around the fueling of our vehicles. I don't see the incentive to settle for a less convenient option. I also would like to hear if 2 Level 2 chargers is even feasible on a 200A service that already has AC, pool equipment, oven, and other standard household electrical devices.
As noted, it would be extremely unusual to arrive home with both vehicles fully depleted and need to take them both back out fully charged again before a home L2 system could recharge them. 200a service with smart charging is probably plenty, but you'll need to speak to an electrician to know for sure.

Most vehicles spend more time than you realize sitting home doing nothing. Even 20a L2 charging would likely be sufficient. Home 'fueling' is so convenient that it is going to the gas station that has become a notable hassle for us.
Valuethinker
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Valuethinker »

onourway wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 5:34 am
Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:31 pm
The mileage isn't linear. 80 miles a day isn't going to cut it. My current schedule doesn't revolve around the fueling of our vehicles. I don't see the incentive to settle for a less convenient option. I also would like to hear if 2 Level 2 chargers is even feasible on a 200A service that already has AC, pool equipment, oven, and other standard household electrical devices.
As noted, it would be extremely unusual to arrive home with both vehicles fully depleted and need to take them both back out fully charged again before a home L2 system could recharge them. 200a service with smart charging is probably plenty, but you'll need to speak to an electrician to know for sure.

Most vehicles spend more time than you realize sitting home doing nothing. Even 20a L2 charging would likely be sufficient. Home 'fueling' is so convenient that it is going to the gas station that has become a notable hassle for us.
I imagine also most companies will have employee & customer parking lots with Level 1 chargers. In fact, in Alberta, parking lots have plug points for engine block heaters (It can be -40 in Edmonton, before windchill)-- so it's already a thing. Probably the shade in those lots will be solar panels.

On my road (very outer London, England), there are plug chargers built in to 2 of the streetlight poles (I think: Level 2 chargers but could be Level 1)-- parking is on the street (old row houses).
Last edited by Valuethinker on Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
harikaried
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by harikaried »

Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:31 pmMy current schedule doesn't revolve around the fueling of our vehicles. I don't see the incentive to settle for a less convenient option.
Your schedule does already account for fueling your vehicles. With 15k miles driven per year at 30 miles per gallon efficiency with say 15 gallon refill in 3 minutes, that would be 100 minutes for each vehicle across the year. Charging an EV conveniently at home takes a few seconds to plug in and unplug, and even a regular 120V wall outlet could be sufficient for daily driving. If more charge is needed for a trip, then DC fast charging can be used before/during travel ideally at your convenience such as when you need to take a break anyway.

To be clear, your questions around charging makes it sound like you're comparing ICE vehicles that have whatever fuel level they arrived home versus potentially 2 electric vehicles that both need to be fully charged from "empty" and ready for 300 mile trips every day. Depending on how often those trips happen, it could still be more convenient to daily 120V charge at home with the occasional DC fast charging. Installing 240V charging at home lessens how frequently you would need to rely on DC fast charging with some personal calculation of that cost vs time benefit.

We have 2 Teslas that have driven 30k+ miles in the past year and go on 300mi+ trips maybe once a month (although usually only using 1 vehicle for the trip). We use a single 14-50 240V to daily charge one vehicle and switch it once a week to the other vehicle that typically drives less than 30 miles a day (and was fine with a regular wall outlet for multiple years). The convenience of charging at home is much better than what we were doing before with Costco gas lines, and fortunately we had been able to charge at 4¢/kWh or less than $3 for a "full tank."
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Valuethinker »

Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 4:14 pm I was hoping hydrogen vehicles would have caught on. 5 minute fill times to get 300 miles sounds impressive. Use all of that solar and wind to crack hydrogen from water. The EV battery charging and range issue would be eliminated.
The problem is the laws of physics work against you.

Producing hydrogen (from water, or by some process from hydrocarbons) takes energy. That energy has a cost.

Now the get out might be this: hydrogen produced by electrolysis during periods of high renewables generation / lower demand (noon - 4pm for solar; wind in the middle of the night). Then the energy cost to create hydrogen is not particularly relevant because the marginal cost of that electricity is nearly zero.

We get into the multi-coloured rainbow of hydrogen. "Green hydrogen" is from renewables. "Brown hydrogen" is from coal. "Blue hydrogen" is from natural gas?

But it's an expensive roundtrip. Electrolysis is the least efficient process (compared to methane reformation, which is the dominant process in industry right now). To create hydrogen, at a high energy cost, to put it into vehicles where it will be burned (with less than perfect efficiency).

I think hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles have a role with larger commercial vehicles. I once thought that EVs would be only transitional on the way to hydrogen, but in that way of "disruptive innovation" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation EVs seem to have lapped them.

I believe either Kia or Hyundai actually sells a hydrogen FCV-- in California only.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by psteinx »

harikaried wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:05 pm
Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:31 pmMy current schedule doesn't revolve around the fueling of our vehicles. I don't see the incentive to settle for a less convenient option.
Your schedule does already account for fueling your vehicles. With 15k miles driven per year at 30 miles per gallon efficiency with say 15 gallon refill in 3 minutes, that would be 100 minutes for each vehicle across the year. Charging an EV conveniently at home takes a few seconds to plug in and unplug, and even a regular 120V wall outlet could be sufficient for daily driving.
EV advocates do this kind of thing - plausible and detailed accounting for the time to fill an ICE, but then hand-wave the time to fuss with charging an EV at home.

There are a lot of different ways and potential issues with charging an EV, so it's hard to be precise.

But let's say you charge your EV 3x/week.

That's ~150 times per year.

Plug location/length can be anywhere from highly convenient to inconvient. When I'm connecting long-ish plugs (vaccuum cleaner, outdoor leaf blower) the time to do so is not trivial. Best case it MIGHT be 5 seconds. But worst case might be 20. Then you have to unplug, add 5-15 seconds more. Maybe some bending/squatting/twisting as you do (not pleasant for those of us on the wrong side of 50). So, you're probably in the range of 10-35 seconds for both halves of the operation.

But also, you might have to play driveway Tetris to get the right car to the right spot in the garage.

Or, you might not have a garage/garage is full, and you plug something longer to the driveway or maybe even the street.

Waving that stuff away, we'll go back to the simpler case. 150x/year X 10-35 seconds per cycle is 1500-5250 seconds, or 25-88 minutes. That's, per this math, somewhat less than the ICE math above. But it's not nothing. Shorter time per cycle but greater # of cycles.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by psteinx »

Valuethinker wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:43 pm I think hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles have a role with larger commercial vehicles. I once thought that EVs would be only transitional on the way to hydrogen, but in that way of "disruptive innovation" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation EVs seem to have lapped them.
There are a lot of possibilities for commercial vehicles, which begin and end their day at a depot, and primarily operate with a defined, limited # of miles per day.

The storage of MANY of these vehicles at a single depot opens up a lot of scaling possibilities. Capital costs and fussy mechanical requirements can be amortized over many such vehicles.

This would include MANY of the residential delivery services (not Doordash, but rather UPS or Amazon Prime), Postal trucks, local delivery, and even the larger sized plumbing/electrical/etc outfits. Plus some taxis and taxi-likes (i.e. some usages of Uber, etc.). Plus transit and school busses.

Not sure what the likely end point is for these in ~20 years. Soaking up extra electricity generated by renewables (solar in the afternoon, wind at night) might justify hydrogen or the like. Or maybe just straight EV.

Broadly, there are 4-5 types of vehicles that mostly use fossils now:
Airplanes (hardest case)
OTR trucks (also a hard case, but Tesla, at least, seems optimistic)
Local commercial trucks and vehicles (seems to be a somewhat slow adopter ATM, but perhaps the easiest case overall)
Passenger light vehicles for commuting purposes (also a good case for EV)
Passenger light vehicles for commuting+travel purposes (somewhat difficult case, but given 10 years, could be nearly as good as ICE)

The last 2 blend together somewhat.

The other issue is capital cost (i.e. higher EV costs or costs for hydrogen + infrastructure). I'm not sure what the price/supply path looks like for Lithium, etc. over the next 10-20 years, but my (rather uninformed) guess is that there will be both much greater supply and somewhat lower costs.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by harikaried »

psteinx wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:44 pmWhen I'm connecting long-ish plugs (vaccuum cleaner, outdoor leaf blower) the time to do so is not trivial
Some people unplug their TVs and lamps on every use, but I would guess most people leave them plugged in because it's more convenient. Similarly for charging an EV, one doesn't need to unplug from the outlet and tidy up the cabling every day, but one could if that's important for them. Yes people's garages, outlets, parking spaces, etc. will be different, but for us, we leave the plug that goes into the EV literally inches away from where the car usually parks for daily charging, and for the vehicle that charges once a week, I don't need to even unplug it from the wall outlet or change where we park either car, but I do need to unwind the cable a single loop to reach the other vehicle.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by squirrel1963 »

psteinx wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:53 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:43 pm I think hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles have a role with larger commercial vehicles. I once thought that EVs would be only transitional on the way to hydrogen, but in that way of "disruptive innovation" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disruptive_innovation EVs seem to have lapped them.
There are a lot of possibilities for commercial vehicles, which begin and end their day at a depot, and primarily operate with a defined, limited # of miles per day.

The storage of MANY of these vehicles at a single depot opens up a lot of scaling possibilities. Capital costs and fussy mechanical requirements can be amortized over many such vehicles.

This would include MANY of the residential delivery services (not Doordash, but rather UPS or Amazon Prime), Postal trucks, local delivery, and even the larger sized plumbing/electrical/etc outfits. Plus some taxis and taxi-likes (i.e. some usages of Uber, etc.). Plus transit and school busses.

Not sure what the likely end point is for these in ~20 years. Soaking up extra electricity generated by renewables (solar in the afternoon, wind at night) might justify hydrogen or the like. Or maybe just straight EV.

Broadly, there are 4-5 types of vehicles that mostly use fossils now:
Airplanes (hardest case)
OTR trucks (also a hard case, but Tesla, at least, seems optimistic)
Local commercial trucks and vehicles (seems to be a somewhat slow adopter ATM, but perhaps the easiest case overall)
Passenger light vehicles for commuting purposes (also a good case for EV)
Passenger light vehicles for commuting+travel purposes (somewhat difficult case, but given 10 years, could be nearly as good as ICE)

The last 2 blend together somewhat.

The other issue is capital cost (i.e. higher EV costs or costs for hydrogen + infrastructure). I'm not sure what the price/supply path looks like for Lithium, etc. over the next 10-20 years, but my (rather uninformed) guess is that there will be both much greater supply and somewhat lower costs.
There are also ships. Hydrogen fuel cells seems to be the ideal solution for ships, I just cannot imagine lithium batteries ever being practical for trans-oceanic shipping or even for any shipping other than perhaps local ferries.
With our current technology it's very difficult to imagine not using some form of chemical fuel for airplanes (hydrogen should be doable, but we don't have flying prototypes yet).
I think long distance truck shipping can go either way (hydrogen fuel cells or electric). The biggest problem with hydrogen right now is the near total absence of a distribution network, whereas we already have a capillary network of electricity distribution although it needs to be beefed up to handle the extra load. Volvo (just to name one) seems to be hedging both, they manufacture electric trucks and they also started testing fuel cells trucks.
For local truck transportation and passenger transportation in general it seems that the decision has been made already.

Electric has a huge advantage of being already on the market, and arguably already transitioning from "early adoption" phase to "mass adoption" phase in the S curve of production evolution, whereas hydrogen fuel cells are very much behind. I think it's realistic to think that the trucking industry at this point could go either way, and I would imagine that the winner will be determined by many factors and not simply by which technology is the best one (see for instance Betamax vs VHS). I am a big EV fan (we have two Teslas), but I think competition in the trucking industry will be good for both technologies, and -- hopefully -- may the best win, whichever one it is :-)

EDIT: either way there is a good chance that hydrogen may play a crucial role in energy storage. Currently we have good solution for storing hours worth of excess electricity in batteries, but it's a fairly expensive technology, and I doubt it will ever scale to be more than a few days. If we really want to go go more than, say, 50%-60% renewables we'll need to be serious about multi-day or multi-month energy storage. Personally I am actually a big fan of nuclear power for baseload generation and extra capacity, but I realize I am in the minority, so I don't really expect it to become prevalent again.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Valuethinker »

psteinx wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:44 pm
harikaried wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:05 pm
Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:31 pmMy current schedule doesn't revolve around the fueling of our vehicles. I don't see the incentive to settle for a less convenient option.
Your schedule does already account for fueling your vehicles. With 15k miles driven per year at 30 miles per gallon efficiency with say 15 gallon refill in 3 minutes, that would be 100 minutes for each vehicle across the year. Charging an EV conveniently at home takes a few seconds to plug in and unplug, and even a regular 120V wall outlet could be sufficient for daily driving.
EV advocates do this kind of thing - plausible and detailed accounting for the time to fill an ICE, but then hand-wave the time to fuss with charging an EV at home.

There are a lot of different ways and potential issues with charging an EV, so it's hard to be precise.

But let's say you charge your EV 3x/week.

That's ~150 times per year.

Plug location/length can be anywhere from highly convenient to inconvient. When I'm connecting long-ish plugs (vaccuum cleaner, outdoor leaf blower) the time to do so is not trivial. Best case it MIGHT be 5 seconds. But worst case might be 20. Then you have to unplug, add 5-15 seconds more. Maybe some bending/squatting/twisting as you do (not pleasant for those of us on the wrong side of 50). So, you're probably in the range of 10-35 seconds for both halves of the operation.

But also, you might have to play driveway Tetris to get the right car to the right spot in the garage.

Or, you might not have a garage/garage is full, and you plug something longer to the driveway or maybe even the street.

Waving that stuff away, we'll go back to the simpler case. 150x/year X 10-35 seconds per cycle is 1500-5250 seconds, or 25-88 minutes. That's, per this math, somewhat less than the ICE math above. But it's not nothing. Shorter time per cycle but greater # of cycles.
I can't imagine anyone thinks that finding a gas station, driving in, fuelling up, paying, is going to be more convenient than plugging your car in when you get home?

England may not be representative of the North American norm. But if you have your own parking (about 60-70% of households do) you drive onto your driveway (garages are used to store cars in only about 10% of cases, apparently) and stop in front of the garage door. Any charger I have seen is on the external wall either to the left or the right of the door. You plug your car in ... the cables are long enough.

North America? Every next model of car Dad got, the cars got that bit wider, but the houses were no further apart (most people park in front of their houses on a paved forecourt, but the houses tend to have garages at the back). He still managed to wiggle his car into the garage (built about 1930). Putting a charger on the house wall (or the deck corner) would not have been hard, and the cable might have had to run 10'.

I really can't see this as a big inconvenience, compared to all of the things that happen at gas stations.

Long journeys I can see the charge-up time getting wearing. But for day-to-day use?

(A street near me, street parking only, someone runs a plug from inside their house and has improvised a frame which goes *over* the sidewalk (about 9' up) and down to their Tesla. I am sure that is not meeting the municipal codes. But no one has stopped them as yet. Ingenuity ;-)).
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

Valuethinker wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 4:03 am
EVs may have lower depreciation because they have fewer moving parts to go wrong. Inherently, they might last longer.

I think ICE vehicles could well gain a scarcity value as model choice & range reduces. In the way that the "muscle cars" of the late 1970s are now so valuable - they don't make engines that big anymore.
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Muscle cars of the late 70's are worth more for a few reasons. I'm of the correct generation and would love to own an early 70's Super Bee, GTX or Road Runner but I also am pragmatic and know these cars were total junk. Power eclipses size (the 426 Hemi blew the 440 out of the water). Today, I can buy a brand new Challenger with 700 HP or more, which you could not buy in the 70's. Heck...I can buy a Grand Cherokee with that kind of power. The thing is, while these cars were literally made in the millions, they all rusted out, fall apart or were crashed, so were crushed to make new Campbell soup containers. Heck, my 1969 MGB bought in 1974 had holes under each door measuring about 2" by 2'. If one of these old mopars are sent to Mark at Graveyard Carz and you spend $80k on the restoration, you'll get one like new. I'd rather spend less and get a new one with nearly twice the power.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by squirrel1963 »

Valuethinker wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:26 pm
psteinx wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:44 pm
harikaried wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:05 pm
Californiastate wrote: Wed Aug 03, 2022 5:31 pmMy current schedule doesn't revolve around the fueling of our vehicles. I don't see the incentive to settle for a less convenient option.
Your schedule does already account for fueling your vehicles. With 15k miles driven per year at 30 miles per gallon efficiency with say 15 gallon refill in 3 minutes, that would be 100 minutes for each vehicle across the year. Charging an EV conveniently at home takes a few seconds to plug in and unplug, and even a regular 120V wall outlet could be sufficient for daily driving.
EV advocates do this kind of thing - plausible and detailed accounting for the time to fill an ICE, but then hand-wave the time to fuss with charging an EV at home.

There are a lot of different ways and potential issues with charging an EV, so it's hard to be precise.

But let's say you charge your EV 3x/week.

That's ~150 times per year.

Plug location/length can be anywhere from highly convenient to inconvient. When I'm connecting long-ish plugs (vaccuum cleaner, outdoor leaf blower) the time to do so is not trivial. Best case it MIGHT be 5 seconds. But worst case might be 20. Then you have to unplug, add 5-15 seconds more. Maybe some bending/squatting/twisting as you do (not pleasant for those of us on the wrong side of 50). So, you're probably in the range of 10-35 seconds for both halves of the operation.

But also, you might have to play driveway Tetris to get the right car to the right spot in the garage.

Or, you might not have a garage/garage is full, and you plug something longer to the driveway or maybe even the street.

Waving that stuff away, we'll go back to the simpler case. 150x/year X 10-35 seconds per cycle is 1500-5250 seconds, or 25-88 minutes. That's, per this math, somewhat less than the ICE math above. But it's not nothing. Shorter time per cycle but greater # of cycles.
I can't imagine anyone thinks that finding a gas station, driving in, fuelling up, paying, is going to be more convenient than plugging your car in when you get home?

England may not be representative of the North American norm. But if you have your own parking (about 60-70% of households do) you drive onto your driveway (garages are used to store cars in only about 10% of cases, apparently) and stop in front of the garage door. Any charger I have seen is on the external wall either to the left or the right of the door. You plug your car in ... the cables are long enough.
Yep exactly, and yes what you tell me England is representative of North America.

I just cannot fathom that plugging the car in the garage it would be difficult. If you keep it outside at all times you can also easily place your wall charger outside.
The time and effort it takes to plug/unplug at home is very similar to the time it takes to insert/remove the gas nozzle in the tank, but the difference is that you do need to drive to a gas station to get gas.
And many people go to places like Costco, where often you need to wait 15-20 minutes to fill up.

There are many criticisms you can move towards EV, but home charging hassle is definitely not one of them.
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