Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

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Fremdon Ferndock
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Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Fremdon Ferndock »

Found this to be eye-opening:
In real terms, government bonds (TBT) (TLT) (SHY) are on course for their worst performance since 1865.

The S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) is looking at its worst year in real terms since 1872

Meanwhile, commodities are on track for their best year since 1946.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3853581-s ... 0635.7737
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by vxdx »

I’d wait to collect that data until the year is over, not halfway through.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Fremdon Ferndock »

It's a real challenge to maintain one's AA in the face of these kinds of headlines. Hopefully, "buy and hold" isn't going to turn into "buy and fold". If I were a young accumulator, the worse it looks the better it is. But, if I'm a retiree drawing down my retirement portfolio not so much.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by David Jay »

Fremdon Ferndock wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:27 amBut, if I'm a retiree drawing down my retirement portfolio not so much.
If you are a retiree, stop reading Seeking Alpha. Seriously.

(same if you are not a retiree, but it's probably less dangerous)
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Valuethinker »

Fremdon Ferndock wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:15 am Found this to be eye-opening:
In real terms, government bonds (TBT) (TLT) (SHY) are on course for their worst performance since 1865.

The S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) is looking at its worst year in real terms since 1872

Meanwhile, commodities are on track for their best year since 1946.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3853581-s ... 0635.7737
I find both assertions to be absolutely baffling.

US stocks are down more than 2008? Let alone 1931? 1938? 1973?

Bonds it seems even more unlikely. At least I recall 1994 when the 30 year Treasury Bond was down -20% (but coupons were a lot higher then). And either 1980 or 1981 when short term rates went to 21% and the bond market took a real kicking. Real returns were worse then, of course, because inflation went over 10%.

It seems to me these are entirely arbitrary 12 month periods which have been chosen to make these assertions.

It's a bear market. So far, it is nothing as frightening as either the Eurozone Crisis one, or the earlier 2008/9 one. The 2000-03 dot com one was slower burn, but tremendously painful.

(the commodity returns also look wrong compared to some years in the 1970s).
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Chip »

Valuethinker wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:48 am I find both assertions to be absolutely baffling.

US stocks are down more than 2008? Let alone 1931? 1938? 1973?
The article annualized the YTD results, which I might charitably call really stupid.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Fremdon Ferndock »

Article on same topic @Marketwatch
Forget the 1970s — this market is drawing comparisons to the 1870s
https://www.marketwatch.com/
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by jebmke »

Chip wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:06 am
Valuethinker wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:48 am I find both assertions to be absolutely baffling.

US stocks are down more than 2008? Let alone 1931? 1938? 1973?
The article annualized the YTD results, which I might charitably call really stupid.
But better than Tuesday*365
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Call_Me_Op »

Chip wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:06 am
Valuethinker wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:48 am I find both assertions to be absolutely baffling.

US stocks are down more than 2008? Let alone 1931? 1938? 1973?
The article annualized the YTD results, which I might charitably call really stupid.
Note that they said "in real terms." There is an 8.6% haircut from inflation alone.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by jebmke »

Valuethinker wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:48 am
Fremdon Ferndock wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:15 am Found this to be eye-opening:
In real terms, government bonds (TBT) (TLT) (SHY) are on course for their worst performance since 1865.

The S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) is looking at its worst year in real terms since 1872

Meanwhile, commodities are on track for their best year since 1946.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3853581-s ... 0635.7737
I find both assertions to be absolutely baffling.

US stocks are down more than 2008? Let alone 1931? 1938? 1973?

Bonds it seems even more unlikely. At least I recall 1994 when the 30 year Treasury Bond was down -20% (but coupons were a lot higher then). And either 1980 or 1981 when short term rates went to 21% and the bond market took a real kicking. Real returns were worse then, of course, because inflation went over 10%.

It seems to me these are entirely arbitrary 12 month periods which have been chosen to make these assertions.

It's a bear market. So far, it is nothing as frightening as either the Eurozone Crisis one, or the earlier 2008/9 one. The 2000-03 dot com one was slower burn, but tremendously painful.

(the commodity returns also look wrong compared to some years in the 1970s).
my bonds are only down about 3% -- and that is before today's bounce. Maybe they hold a lot of EM bonds.
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by martincmartin »

Fremdon Ferndock wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:27 am It's a real challenge to maintain one's AA in the face of these kinds of headlines. Hopefully, "buy and hold" isn't going to turn into "buy and fold". If I were a young accumulator, the worse it looks the better it is. But, if I'm a retiree drawing down my retirement portfolio not so much.
They're just trying to find the scariest thing to say, since fear generates views.

It's like saying "I got into a car accident on the way into work, and spent the morning dealing with tow trucks and insurance companies! It's noon, that means I'm on track for having 2 car accidents today!"

"A tree fell on my house causing $50k damage! It's noon, I'm on track for having $100k damage to my house today!"

It's possible that the second half of this year features a second major war that sends food and fuel prices soaring even more; a second supply shock similar to China's zero-COVID policy on top of that one; unemployment going from historical lows to historically much lower; etc. It's just not likely.

Don't take the first half of the year and double it and compare that to things. Instead, compare the first half of this year to other first halfs. "In the first half of this year American stockmarkets fell by the largest amount since 1970." So it's bad, but not "OMG Civil War" bad.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Dude2 »

I haven't felt this ornery since Sherman burned Atlanta. Oh wait, that was 1864, you're talking about 1872 -- cherry-picking the data.
Then ’tis like the breath of an unfee’d lawyer.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Fremdon Ferndock »

martincmartin wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:25 am
Fremdon Ferndock wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:27 am It's a real challenge to maintain one's AA in the face of these kinds of headlines. Hopefully, "buy and hold" isn't going to turn into "buy and fold". If I were a young accumulator, the worse it looks the better it is. But, if I'm a retiree drawing down my retirement portfolio not so much.
They're just trying to find the scariest thing to say, since fear generates views.

It's like saying "I got into a car accident on the way into work, and spent the morning dealing with tow trucks and insurance companies! It's noon, that means I'm on track for having 2 car accidents today!"

"A tree fell on my house causing $50k damage! It's noon, I'm on track for having $100k damage to my house today!"

It's possible that the second half of this year features a second major war that sends food and fuel prices soaring even more; a second supply shock similar to China's zero-COVID policy on top of that one; unemployment going from historical lows to historically much lower; etc. It's just not likely.

Don't take the first half of the year and double it and compare that to things. Instead, compare the first half of this year to other first halfs. "In the first half of this year American stockmarkets fell by the largest amount since 1970." So it's bad, but not "OMG Civil War" bad.
Good Point.
What Is an Annualized Rate of Return?
An annualized rate of return is calculated as the equivalent annual return an investor receives over a given period. The Global Investment Performance Standards dictate that returns of portfolios or composites for periods of less than one year may not be annualized. This prevents "projected" performance in the remainder of the year from occurring.
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/an ... d-rate.asp
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by jebmke »

How does this year compare to October 19,1987 annualized?
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Fremdon Ferndock »

Apparently, these are Bank of America calculations.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Kenkat »

There was a big financial panic in 1873, but other than that, 1865/1872 was an excellent time to invest in the United States.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by ndomorph »

Fremdon Ferndock wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:15 am "The S&P 500 (SP500) (NYSEARCA:SPY) is looking at its worst year in real terms since 1872"
Huh. Does 1872 data for (SP500) or (NYSEARCA:SPY) exist in an alternate timeline?
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by dknightd »

This is a potentially tough time to be newly retired.
Investments are going down. The price of things is going up.
You kind of have to hold on to your hat and hope things will "normalize." Whatever that means.
Will it be the worse time ever? Or in recent history? I sure hope not!

At the end of the year I figure out what I can safely spend next year. So far it looks like I'll be able to spend the same in nominal dollars. Which is fine, for a year or two. But the year is not over yet . . .
Last edited by dknightd on Fri Jul 01, 2022 11:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by 3funder »

vxdx wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:22 am I’d wait to collect that data until the year is over, not halfway through.
+1
Global stocks, US bonds, and time.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Bogleheads:

This article and its tables are an example of what Mark Twain would call:

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics"

Best wishes
Taylor
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by dknightd »

@Taylor Larimore

I've got fence that needs painting. How much do you think it costs!

Sorry, your post made me giggle :)
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by LilyFleur »

The Wall Street Journal reports that Thursday's decline closed out the S&P 500's worst first half of the year since 1970.

Note the precision and the lack of hyperbole. According to Investopedia:

The Wall Street Journal is one of the world's leading daily financial newspapers. It has dominated American business publishing and was the country's first national newspaper and has won more than three dozen Pulitzer Prizes for its work.


I wouldn't rely on some blogger with the word "alpha" in its URL for substantive and accurate financial news.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by firebirdparts »

Call_Me_Op wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:13 am
Chip wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:06 am
Valuethinker wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:48 am I find both assertions to be absolutely baffling.

US stocks are down more than 2008? Let alone 1931? 1938? 1973?
The article annualized the YTD results, which I might charitably call really stupid.
Note that they said "in real terms." There is an 8.6% haircut from inflation alone.
Well, now, YTD that's a 4.3% haircut, sir.
This time is the same
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by firebirdparts »

Every once in a while I'll get a message from somebody on facebook telling me something like this:
This Month has five Fridays, five Saturdays, and five Sundays. This only happens once every 843 years. The Chinese call this event "Pistacio" and any pair of shoes will be lucky if you set off a firecracker in the left shoe.
I am thinking seeking alpha may need to look into more this sort of material.

Still better than Tuesday * 365

And it's better than annualizing the covid decreases. That was breathtakingly [Freudian slip sry] stupid, but that's exactly what happened at the end of first quarter 2020. Especially the government. They were all fired up about it.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Cheez-It Guy »

Chip wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:06 am
Valuethinker wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:48 am I find both assertions to be absolutely baffling.

US stocks are down more than 2008? Let alone 1931? 1938? 1973?
The article annualized the YTD results, which I might charitably call really stupid.
Next time we start the year with a strong opening half, we should try annualizing those and claim the best year in history!
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Godot »

Fremdon Ferndock wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:12 am Article on same topic @Marketwatch
Forget the 1970s — this market is drawing comparisons to the 1870s
https://www.marketwatch.com/
Hilarious. The chart doesn't even include the 1870s!
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Californiastate »

You can always find a cause to worry. I try not to get too frenetic in either direction. I always say that if the world doesn't end tomorrow, do I want to be remembered as the one cowering in the corner.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Zeno »

duplicate
Last edited by Zeno on Sat Jul 02, 2022 10:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Bogleheads:

In my Three-Fund Portfolio post, I listed annual returns for each of the three-funds in the portfolio. It is instructive to see all the negative annual S&P returns since 1976 in red and the following year return in green:

YEAR--INFLATION--BOND INDEX--S&P 500 INDEX------MSCI EAFE INDEX
1976-------4.9%--------15.6%------------23.8%--------------------3.6%
1977-------6.7-----------3.0-------------(-7.2)-------------------17.5
1978-------9.0-----------1.4---------------6.6--------------------33.1
1979------13.3-----------1.9--------------18.4-------------------10.9 (Highest Annual Inflation Rate)
1980------12.5-----------2.7--------------32.4-------------------25.4
1981-------8.9-----------6.3-------------(-4.9)------------------(-2.5)
1982-------3.8----------32.6--------------21.6------------------(-0.3) (Highest Bond Index Return)
1983-------3.8-----------8.4--------------22.6-------------------24.8
1984-------3.9----------15.2---------------6.3--------------------3.5
1985-------3.8----------22.1--------------31.7-------------------51.4
1986-------1.1----------15.2--------------18.7-------------------65.8
1987-------4.4-----------2.8----------------5.2-------------------24.6
1988-------4.4-----------7.9---------------16.6-------------------27.8
1989-------4.6----------14.5---------------31.7------------------11.4
1990-------6.1-----------8.9---------------(-3.1)---------------(-22.8)
1991-------3.1----------16.0---------------30.5------------------12.4
1992-------2.9-----------7.4-----------------7.6----------------(-11.9)
1993-------2.7-----------9.7----------------10.1------------------32.6
1994-------2.7---------(-2.9)----------------1.3--------------------7.6 (Lowest Bond Index Return)
1995-------2.5----------18.5---------------37.6-------------------11.8 (Highest S&P Index Return)
1996-------3.3-----------3.6----------------23.0--------------------7.2
1997-------1.7-----------9.7----------------33.4--------------------2.6
1998-------1.6-----------8.7----------------28.6-------------------19.1
1999-------2.7---------(-0.8)---------------21.0-------------------28.3
2000-------3.4----------11.6---------------(-9.1)----------------(-15.8)
2001-------1.6-----------8.4--------------(-11.9)----------------(-19.8)
2002-------2.4----------10.3-------------(-22.1)----------------(-15.3)
2003-------1.9-----------4.1----------------28.7-------------------40.4
2004-------3.3-----------4.3----------------10.9-------------------20.9
2005-------3.4-----------2.4-----------------4.9-------------------15.8
2006-------2.5-----------4.3----------------15.8------------------26.8
2007-------4.1-----------7.0-----------------5.5------------------11.6
2008-------0.1-----------5.2--------------(-37.0)---------------(-43.1) (Lowest U.S. and International Stock Returns)
2009-------2.7-----------5.9----------------26.5------------------32.5
2010-------1.5-----------6.5----------------15.1-------------------8.2
2011-------3.0-----------7.7-----------------2.1----------------(-11.7)
2012-------1.7-----------4.3----------------16.0------------------17.9
2013-------1.5---------(-2.0)---------------32.4------------------23.3
2014-------1.6-----------6.0----------------13.7-----------------(-4.5)
2015-------0.7-----------0.5-----------------1.4-----------------(-0.4)
2016-------2.1-----------2.6----------------12.0-------------------1.5
2017-------2.1-----------3.5----------------21.8------------------25.6
2018-------2.5---------(-0.1)--------------(-4.4)---------------(-13.4)
2019-------2.3-----------8.7----------------31.5------------------22.7
2020-------1.4-----------7.7----------------18.4------------------11.3
2021-------7.0---------(-1.7)---------------25.7-------------------8.6

Past performance does not forecast future performance.

Stay the Course.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Stay the course. Regardless of what happens in the markets, stick to your investment program. Changing your strategy at the wrong time can be the single most devastating mistake you can make as an investor."
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Fri Jul 01, 2022 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by McQ »

martincmartin wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:25 am ...

Don't take the first half of the year and double it and compare that to things. Instead, compare the first half of this year to other first halfs. "In the first half of this year American stockmarkets fell by the largest amount since 1970." So it's bad, but not "OMG Civil War" bad.
I give it a shot at viewtopic.php?t=381019 with a link back to this thread.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by rockstar »

We're doomed. Run for the hills.

Everything will be ok.

The market will eventually come back in the future.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Kenkat »

Taylor Larimore wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 1:38 pm Bogleheads:

In my Three-Fund Portfolio post, I listed annual returns for each of the three-funds in the portfolio. It is instructive to see all the negative annual S&P returns since 1976 in red and the following year return in green:

YEAR--INFLATION--BOND INDEX--S&P 500 INDEX------MSCI EAFE INDEX
1976-------4.9%--------15.6%------------23.8%--------------------3.6%
1977-------6.7-----------3.0-------------(-7.2)-------------------17.5
1978-------9.0-----------1.4---------------6.6--------------------33.1
1979------13.3-----------1.9--------------18.4-------------------10.9 (Highest Annual Inflation Rate)
1980------12.5-----------2.7--------------32.4-------------------25.4
1981-------8.9-----------6.3-------------(-4.9)------------------(-2.5)
1982-------3.8----------32.6--------------21.6------------------(-0.3) (Highest Bond Index Return)
1983-------3.8-----------8.4--------------22.6-------------------24.8
1984-------3.9----------15.2---------------6.3--------------------3.5
1985-------3.8----------22.1--------------31.7-------------------51.4
1986-------1.1----------15.2--------------18.7-------------------65.8
1987-------4.4-----------2.8----------------5.2-------------------24.6
1988-------4.4-----------7.9---------------16.6-------------------27.8
1989-------4.6----------14.5---------------31.7------------------11.4
1990-------6.1-----------8.9---------------(-3.1)---------------(-22.8)
1991-------3.1----------16.0---------------30.5------------------12.4
1992-------2.9-----------7.4-----------------7.6----------------(-11.9)
1993-------2.7-----------9.7----------------10.1------------------32.6
1994-------2.7---------(-2.9)----------------1.3--------------------7.6 (Lowest Bond Index Return)
1995-------2.5----------18.5---------------37.6-------------------11.8 (Highest S&P Index Return)
1996-------3.3-----------3.6----------------23.0--------------------7.2
1997-------1.7-----------9.7----------------33.4--------------------2.6
1998-------1.6-----------8.7----------------28.6-------------------19.1
1999-------2.7---------(-0.8)---------------21.0-------------------28.3
2000-------3.4----------11.6---------------(-9.1)----------------(-15.8)
2001-------1.6-----------8.4--------------(-11.9)----------------(-19.8)
2002-------2.4----------10.3-------------(-22.1)----------------(-15.3)
2003-------1.9-----------4.1----------------28.7-------------------40.4
2004-------3.3-----------4.3----------------10.9-------------------20.9
2005-------3.4-----------2.4-----------------4.9-------------------15.8
2006-------2.5-----------4.3----------------15.8------------------26.8
2007-------4.1-----------7.0-----------------5.5------------------11.6
2008-------0.1-----------5.2--------------(-37.0)---------------(-43.1) (Lowest U.S. and International Stock Returns)
2009-------2.7-----------5.9----------------26.5------------------32.5
2010-------1.5-----------6.5----------------15.1-------------------8.2
2011-------3.0-----------7.7-----------------2.1----------------(-11.7)
2012-------1.7-----------4.3----------------16.0------------------17.9
2013-------1.5---------(-2.0)---------------32.4------------------23.3
2014-------1.6-----------6.0----------------13.7-----------------(-4.5)
2015-------0.7-----------0.5-----------------1.4-----------------(-0.4)
2016-------2.1-----------2.6----------------12.0-------------------1.5
2017-------2.1-----------3.5----------------21.8------------------25.6
2018-------2.5---------(-0.1)--------------(-4.4)---------------(-13.4)
2019-------2.3-----------8.7----------------31.5------------------22.7
2020-------1.4-----------7.7----------------18.4------------------11.3
2021-------7.0---------(-1.7)---------------25.7-------------------8.6

Stay the Course.

Best wishes.
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "Stay the course. Regardless of what happens in the markets, stick to your investment program. Changing your strategy at the wrong time can be the single most devastating mistake you can make as an investor."
If the bond index is negative again this year, which I am guessing it will be, it would be the first time it has been negative two years in a row since your data started (1976).

With that said, I still believe it is best to stay the course as long term investors.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by tvubpwcisla »

It will be interesting what the headlines read five years from now?
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Bogleheads:

There are many lessons to be learned from the above table. One lesson is for stock investors to be less afraid of inflation (which of course is not good). Note that the S&P 500 stock returns were higher than the double-digit inflation of 1979-1980.

Best wishes
Taylor
Jack Bogle's Words of Wisdom: "On occasion, rapid growth in the money supply has unleashed bouts of rapid price inflation. The effect on real long-term stock returns has nonetheless proved neutral."
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by David Jay »

jebmke wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:36 am How does this year compare to October 19,1987 annualized?
Yowza - that would be a big (negative) number!

How many trading days are there in the year? Somewhere around 245?
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by jarjarM »

Seems weird that stock is in real term but commodity is in nominal term. They want to tell a story and pick the right chart for it :P
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Triple digit golfer »

A better comparison is first six months of the year.
The best comparison is any six month period.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Candor »

The S&P is up over 1% so far today and BND is +.82%, the first day of the 3rd quarter. If this continues it will be the best performing year in the history of North America going back to the ice age!
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by ososnilknarf »

LilyFleur wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 1:05 pm The Wall Street Journal reports that Thursday's decline closed out the S&P 500's worst first half of the year since 1970.

Note the precision and the lack of hyperbole. According to Investopedia:

The Wall Street Journal is one of the world's leading daily financial newspapers. It has dominated American business publishing and was the country's first national newspaper and has won more than three dozen Pulitzer Prizes for its work.


I wouldn't rely on some blogger with the word "alpha" in its URL for substantive and accurate financial news.
I would argue that even comparing "first half years" is even kind of meaningless cherry picked data. Wouldn't it be more meaningful to compare any 6-month decline? Surely there are more larger ones if we don't confine ourselves to only Jan-June spans.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by visualguy »

Kenkat wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 1:59 pm If the bond index is negative again this year, which I am guessing it will be, it would be the first time it has been negative two years in a row since your data started (1976).

With that said, I still believe it is best to stay the course as long term investors.
Most people with a large amount invested are middle aged or older. Not much of a "long term" left for them in many cases unless the focus is on heirs. It's easy to forget that life is pretty short.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by ososnilknarf »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 2:36 pm A better comparison is first six months of the year.
The best comparison is any six month period.
Oh, I didn't see this post until after I posted the above making the same point. So, yes, I agree!
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Triple digit golfer »

ososnilknarf wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 3:03 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 2:36 pm A better comparison is first six months of the year.
The best comparison is any six month period.
Oh, I didn't see this post until after I posted the above making the same point. So, yes, I agree!
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by nisiprius »

Whatever "on track for worst year since post-Civil War" is, that doesn't pass the laugh test. Believe me, ask anyone who lived through 2008-2009. Of course, "on track for" is a prediction, and I feel very very sure that it is not a reliable prediction[
Fremdon Ferndock wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:27 amIt's a real challenge to maintain one's AA in the face of these kinds of headlines.
You know the answer to that, right? Don't pay attention to "these kinds of headlines."

Mark Twain has a much-quoted passage in Life on the Mississippi in which he observes that due to the river constantly cutting off loops, "In the space of one hundred and seventy-six years the Lower Mississippi has shortened itself two hundred and forty-two miles. That is an average of a trifle over one mile and a third per year." He deduces that the lower Mississippi is on track to be a mile and three-quarters long by the year 2625.

P.S. And you can always find credible experts on both sides of the topic, and I don't know how to strike an average or determine a consensus, and I don't believe such a consensus would be accurate anyway. Here's one for you, from Morgan Stanley
In the end, 2022 could be an OK year for the market return overall, just not as strong as what we’ve seen in the last few years.
Last edited by nisiprius on Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by harvestbook »

I don't care about any six-month period (at least in terms of investment performance), much less one specifically slotted into a Jan 1-June 30 window. What does it have to do with anything besides financial articles? I guess if you're a Wall Street genius getting reviewed for termination it might matter. In the real world, July 2 always rolls around...so far.
I'm not smart enough to know, and I can't afford to guess.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by toddthebod »

visualguy wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 3:02 pm
Kenkat wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 1:59 pm If the bond index is negative again this year, which I am guessing it will be, it would be the first time it has been negative two years in a row since your data started (1976).

With that said, I still believe it is best to stay the course as long term investors.
Most people with a large amount invested are middle aged or older. Not much of a "long term" left for them in many cases unless the focus is on heirs. It's easy to forget that life is pretty short.
The average length of time Americans spend retired is 18 years. Even if you are a middle age investor, you are still concerned about the long-term.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by jebmke »

toddthebod wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:05 am
visualguy wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 3:02 pm
Kenkat wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 1:59 pm If the bond index is negative again this year, which I am guessing it will be, it would be the first time it has been negative two years in a row since your data started (1976).

With that said, I still believe it is best to stay the course as long term investors.
Most people with a large amount invested are middle aged or older. Not much of a "long term" left for them in many cases unless the focus is on heirs. It's easy to forget that life is pretty short.
The average length of time Americans spend retired is 18 years. Even if you are a middle age investor, you are still concerned about the long-term.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by visualguy »

toddthebod wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:05 am
visualguy wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 3:02 pm
Kenkat wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 1:59 pm If the bond index is negative again this year, which I am guessing it will be, it would be the first time it has been negative two years in a row since your data started (1976).

With that said, I still believe it is best to stay the course as long term investors.
Most people with a large amount invested are middle aged or older. Not much of a "long term" left for them in many cases unless the focus is on heirs. It's easy to forget that life is pretty short.
The average length of time Americans spend retired is 18 years. Even if you are a middle age investor, you are still concerned about the long-term.
Not much. Death is not the time you need the money.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by Fremdon Ferndock »

toddthebod wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:05 am
visualguy wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 3:02 pm
Kenkat wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 1:59 pm If the bond index is negative again this year, which I am guessing it will be, it would be the first time it has been negative two years in a row since your data started (1976).

With that said, I still believe it is best to stay the course as long term investors.
Most people with a large amount invested are middle aged or older. Not much of a "long term" left for them in many cases unless the focus is on heirs. It's easy to forget that life is pretty short.
The average length of time Americans spend retired is 18 years. Even if you are a middle age investor, you are still concerned about the long-term.
I'm pretty concerned with the term between now and the long term too. I'm not just gonna be holding my stash for 18 years.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by JoeRetire »

Chip wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 10:06 am
Valuethinker wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 9:48 am I find both assertions to be absolutely baffling.

US stocks are down more than 2008? Let alone 1931? 1938? 1973?
The article annualized the YTD results, which I might charitably call really stupid.
Headlines can be fun.

Too bad they didn't annualize yesterday's results. Guess that wouldn't have been as fun.
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Re: Stocks, bonds on track for worst year since post-Civil War

Post by JoeRetire »

visualguy wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 3:02 pm
Kenkat wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 1:59 pm If the bond index is negative again this year, which I am guessing it will be, it would be the first time it has been negative two years in a row since your data started (1976).

With that said, I still believe it is best to stay the course as long term investors.
Most people with a large amount invested are middle aged or older. Not much of a "long term" left for them in many cases unless the focus is on heirs. It's easy to forget that life is pretty short.
I'm 67. Based on family history, I could easily be around another 30 years.

For me, that's "long term".
I guess for some, that's "pretty short".
It's all relative.

I don't intend to panic, based on a few dramatic headlines and the amount of years I likely have remaining. Your mileage may vary.
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