anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

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bigdog34
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anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by bigdog34 »

for the past decade I've had a US tilt (around 80/20 ratio of US to INT) and have benefitted from this. I've watched as VXUS has performed extremely poorly for a prolonged period of time, including the past 1-2 years, even though INT valuations are relatively "cheap" compared to US. I know market timing is the devil and needs to be avoided like the plague in this forum, and even mentioning it might conjure up demons that can work their way into your portfolio and curse it for eternity...

My question: are there others out there like me who are now tempted to finally strive for a truly market cap weighted portfolio, and let that ride until you die? My rationale would be that market cap weight is the simplest and least active approach, and now very well might be one of the best times in history of adopt it (or US might continue to outperform...).

There are already a million US vs INT threads here, but as time passes and INT continues to be a liability, I think these discussions become increasingly interesting. I realized YTD INT index is down like 2-3% less than US, but over a full year its down 6.5% more and over 2 years its down like 18% more. Truly wild times considering US has obliterated INT the past decade prior to the COVID market mayhem.
JTcheek
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by JTcheek »

I've had an equity valuation of 60/40 US/International for years. More specifically, 60/33/7 for US/Foreign Developed/Emerging Markets. What market cap weight would you use? Every now and then I think about revisiting my allocation percentages, but in the end, I realize that any adjustments I would be comfortable with would be small and would therefore not have much impact on returns going forward.

I would be curious to see what the market cap weights were for US, foreign developed, emerging markets...by region.
KneeReplacementTutor
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by KneeReplacementTutor »

bigdog34 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:02 pm ...now very well might be one of the best times in history of adopt it (or US might continue to outperform...). [/i]
I agree that it may be. The problem is that I can't convince myself that it will be. And for that reason, I'm out (on considering moving to market cap weight with international).
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Charles Joseph
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by Charles Joseph »

Absolutely not.
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bigdog34
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by bigdog34 »

JTcheek wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:14 pm I've had an equity valuation of 60/40 US/International for years. More specifically, 60/33/7 for US/Foreign Developed/Emerging Markets. What market cap weight would you use? Every now and then I think about revisiting my allocation percentages, but in the end, I realize that any adjustments I would be comfortable with would be small and would therefore not have much impact on returns going forward.

I would be curious to see what the market cap weights were for US, foreign developed, emerging markets...by region.
I think I'd just emulate VT and avoid the extra tilt to EM.
Steadfast
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by Steadfast »

I invested this way from the get-go, because none of the arguments against it are convincing to me.

Valuations imply higher expected returns for global investors versus U.S.-only investors. I'll know in a few decades if expectation met reality. Meanwhile I have been satisfied with my returns. A well diversified portfolio typically includes an underperforming asset.
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by visualguy »

Charles Joseph wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:38 pm Absolutely not.
+1

Indexing ex-US has effectively failed as a reasonable investment over the long run. High volatility with low returns. Indexing US may very well turn out not to be a good investment either going forward, which is the reason I diversify to direct real estate, but I see no point in indexing ex-US. Take the money you would invest in indexing ex-US, and put it in non-stock assets if you desire more diversification.
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burritoLover
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by burritoLover »

VT and chill not I'm-going-to-hope-the-US-outperforms-forever-for-no-good-reason-other-than-it-has-for-a-period-after-the-mid-90's.
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by vitaflo »

I've been world market weight since 2011. I've been very happy with my overall returns, even with the Int performance. I've been able to achieve my goals and then some. No plan on changing that ever.

But buying in because you think now is better than some other time is probably the wrong reason to do it.
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bigdog34
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by bigdog34 »

visualguy wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:14 pm
Charles Joseph wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:38 pm Absolutely not.
+1

Indexing ex-US has effectively failed as a reasonable investment over the long run. High volatility with low returns. Indexing US may very well turn out not to be a good investment either going forward, which is the reason I diversify to direct real estate, but I see no point in indexing ex-US. Take the money you would invest in indexing ex-US, and put it in non-stock assets if you desire more diversification.
I think I've held this same belief deep down, which inspired me to buy a rental property last year, hold a small gold / crypto allocation the past 5 years, increase my fixed income allocation via IBonds the past few years, finally pull the trigger on a SCV tilt during the COVID crash (which has thus far been a good move). Seems like international equities are viewed as the plague by most people the past decade, and policy / demographics / sector composition makes ppl feel like INT may never turn the corner. Though, ultimately, I feel like I'm being fulfilling the typical boglehead prophesy of spending years researching and reading forums, devising a portfolio that has beat the typical target retirement fund, but then at the end of the day wanting simplicity and being willing to accept average market returns. It's been fun devising an above average portfolio but the older I get the more I understand the value of time / simplicity, and VT is increasingly tempting. Alt assets are fun and often lucrative but definitely require a lot more work / attention / strategy.

I appreciate the input from everyone!
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by Nathan Drake »

visualguy wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 3:14 pm
Charles Joseph wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:38 pm Absolutely not.
+1

Indexing ex-US has effectively failed as a reasonable investment over the long run. High volatility with low returns. Indexing US may very well turn out not to be a good investment either going forward, which is the reason I diversify to direct real estate, but I see no point in indexing ex-US. Take the money you would invest in indexing ex-US, and put it in non-stock assets if you desire more diversification.
1950-2010 exUS and US performance was identical

So no, exUS investing has not failed “over the long term”. Your post is entirely recency bias

Real estate adds no diversification, it’s adding concentrated idiosyncratic risk
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Ocean77
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by Ocean77 »

Not me. Putting 60% into a single country, however awesome it may be, is just too risky and not diversified enough.
30% US Stocks | 30% Int Stocks | 40% Bonds
Blue456
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by Blue456 »

Ocean77 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 5:46 pm Not me. Putting 60% into a single country, however awesome it may be, is just too risky and not diversified enough.
Maybe so, but I get less tracking error going with 60% US and 40% ex-US.
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by Jon Luskin »

Steadfast wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:53 pm A well diversified portfolio typically includes an underperforming asset.
Well said.
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by UpperNwGuy »

My international is half market weight, and I plan to keep it that way. I say "half market weight" instead of "20% of equities" because I'm willing to let international grow above 20% if it's market weight grows above the current 40%. If international rises to 50% market weight, then it will grow to 25% of my portfolio.
Random Walker
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by Random Walker »

This is exactly what I have done. I was about 60/40 or 70/30 US/Int and figured I’d take advantage of valuations to move towards world market cap 50/50. I DID IT IN 2017! :-) Made sense to me as move towards world market cap, and like you I’ll stay there forever. But as a market timing move, not so hot :-)

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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by GAAP »

I'm already there -- VT is my only equity holding, and I have no plans to change that.
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anon_investor
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by anon_investor »

Nope, still 100% US.
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by WhiteMaxima »

I am 60:40 to 70:30 US:Non-US
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by sls239 »

The reason I chose 20% of equities for the international component in the first place was because that was the smallest amount that got a significant diversification benefit.

There is one thing that we can all see from this recent underperformance and that is if international markets underperform, and they are a large portion of your portfolio, in the US you are just SOL.

When the US stock market underperforms, it creates political pressure in the US to do something.

So for me, the risk of underperformance with no “bailout” if you will still exists and so I’m sticking with the smallest portion that provides significant diversification benefit.

Maybe someone can enlighten me - does the current data still show that to be 20%?
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by yules »

Ocean77 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 5:46 pm Not me. Putting 60% into a single country, however awesome it may be, is just too risky and not diversified enough.
I wouldn’t mind, if there actually was an awesome country, it seems like they’re all meh, though

Yules
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by bikechuck »

I am 80/20 U.S./International for equities. If all of the pundits are correct and if international ever does outperform I will let the international percent increase without rebalancing. Based on the consensus forecasts for the past several years I have been expecting my 20% to creep up a bit but so far that hasn't happened.
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by invest4 »

sls239 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 7:52 pm The reason I chose 20% of equities for the international component in the first place was because that was the smallest amount that got a significant diversification benefit.
Same.
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by JoMoney »

Honestly, I keep eyeballing Vanguard International High Dividend Yield fund (VYMI) and keep noticing how close it's book-value multiple is getting to 1 (at least according to Morningstar's forward-looking metrics)
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/xnas/vymi/portfolio

On the other hand, I also see it's 34% "Financial Services", which probably should have a very low book value given how much of their book is just paper securities, much of which will have a lower market value if/when interest rates rise.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by asset_chaos »

I moved my core stock holdings to total world fund since nearly when it opened. I've had market weight US and non-US since early 2009. It's done fine. There's always some groups of stocks that lead and others that lag, no matter how you want to group the stocks. Total market investing means I own all the stocks and neither have to look at nor care about which groups of stocks are waxing or waning, which groups of stocks are doing all the time and on many different timescales. I just have stocks, and it makes stock ownership for me as calm and sedate as owning stocks can get.

Total world isn't for everyone, and I wouldn't say that it should be. But from the number of threads on how much international, how much emerging, this has done bad for a while, etc, more people that might admit it might have a smoother ride to go with total world and expend the mental energy on something more satisfying.
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by loukycpa »

I have found I don't sleep as well at night with emerging markets in my portfolio.

Right now my equities are 70% US and 30% Ex-US developed (VTMGX instead of VTIAX). Excluding emerging markets, this is close to market weight considering only developed markets. Still a slight US tilt as I think US is about 66% of developed markets by market cap.

I believe I have heard someone say before here you aren't truly diversified unless you have something in your portfolio that makes you uncomfortable. I guess I don't subscribe. With VTSAX I own over 4000+ stocks. VTMGX adds another 4000+ stocks from over 20 different developed countries. At this point I like the additional diversification and it is enough for me.

Will my risk adjusted returns be better in the future versus a US only portfolio? I have no idea. But I sleep a little better I think, even if it a false sense of security. What I am really seeking is to reduce the risk of a bad outcome (Japan scenario for example).
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by JBTX »

I’m already at global market weight in international. Between slowly increasing my international allocation over the years and the US increasing market weight, I finally ended up at market weight. I expect I will stay in that ballpark going forward.
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by Nathan Drake »

I think VXUS has a really hefty dividend yield at nearly 3.5%

Just keeping pricing parity with US would mean it will outperform due to doubling of the dividend yield
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slow n steady
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by slow n steady »

Random Walker wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 7:31 pm This is exactly what I have done. I was about 60/40 or 70/30 US/Int and figured I’d take advantage of valuations to move towards world market cap 50/50. I DID IT IN 2017! :-) Made sense to me as move towards world market cap, and like you I’ll stay there forever. But as a market timing move, not so hot :-)

Dave
Same here. I love being right but this was a swing and miss. I plan on staying here until at least retirement.

It's actually been great at simplifying my finances, I know I can just always add all of my 457b and IRA contributions straight to international to keep my portfolio balanced :oops:
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bigdog34
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by bigdog34 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:51 pm I think VXUS has a really hefty dividend yield at nearly 3.5%

Just keeping pricing parity with US would mean it will outperform due to doubling of the dividend yield
Excellent point. As someone with 60% ex-us (with a strong value and EM tilt), did you initially start off as a cap weighted person and then decide to tilt ex-us/value later in life (due to valuations)?
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by saver7007 »

Is there any reason that pricing for stocks works differently in US markets vs. ex-US markets? Why would investors who can allocate money globally price US stocks for a chronically higher ROI than ex-US stocks, or vice versa? Wouldn't any difference in the expected ROI between US and ex-US stocks be quickly arbitraged away and make the returns everywhere equal in the long run?
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by visualguy »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:51 pm I think VXUS has a really hefty dividend yield at nearly 3.5%

Just keeping pricing parity with US would mean it will outperform due to doubling of the dividend yield
Too bad ex-US pricing in back to what it was in 2006, which is 16 years ago!
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by Random Walker »

saver7007 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:51 pm Is there any reason that pricing for stocks works differently in US markets vs. ex-US markets? Why would investors who can allocate money globally price US stocks for a chronically higher ROI than ex-US stocks, or vice versa? Wouldn't any difference in the expected ROI between US and ex-US stocks be quickly arbitraged away and make the returns everywhere equal in the long run?
No. I have twisted my mind into this sort of thinking in the past too. But markets price risk. And risk and expected return are related. Lower valuations of Int imply greater perceived risk and associated greater expected return. We would expect an efficient market to roughly equalize risk adjusted returns across investments, but not straight returns.

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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by Nathan Drake »

bigdog34 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:48 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:51 pm I think VXUS has a really hefty dividend yield at nearly 3.5%

Just keeping pricing parity with US would mean it will outperform due to doubling of the dividend yield
Excellent point. As someone with 60% ex-us (with a strong value and EM tilt), did you initially start off as a cap weighted person and then decide to tilt ex-us/value later in life (due to valuations)?
I started off 100% US only and started increasing exUS significantly in 2014.

I always wanted a value tilt but couldn’t get access to the best funds until Avantis came out. Starting in early 2021 I reallocated 50% into SCV

100% of my new contributions are going to AVUV, AVES, and AVDV.

Nothing wrong with MCW, but I don’t see any issue with being all SCV. I am willing to take more risks and more importantly I desire more risk factor diversification. SCV already has significant market beta exposure
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by Nathan Drake »

visualguy wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:54 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:51 pm I think VXUS has a really hefty dividend yield at nearly 3.5%

Just keeping pricing parity with US would mean it will outperform due to doubling of the dividend yield
Too bad ex-US pricing in back to what it was in 2006, which is 16 years ago!
Maybe US is next? Wouldn’t be the first time
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by saver7007 »

Random Walker wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:59 pm
No. I have twisted my mind into this sort of thinking in the past too. But markets price risk. And risk and expected return are related. Lower valuations of Int imply greater perceived risk and associated greater expected return. We would expect an efficient market to roughly equalize risk adjusted returns across investments, but not straight returns.

Dave
That makes sense, sort of analogous to the reasoning that stocks are priced for a higher potential ROI than bonds because of the higher risk and volatility. Sort of working the logic backwards, I wonder if the lower returns of ex-US stocks in recent decades is somehow linked to having less risk in ex-US stocks, maybe the market is saying ex-US companies have been less risky investments than US companies and are therefore priced higher relative to expected returns, like bonds would be. I have no idea if that's right just a thought.
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bigdog34
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by bigdog34 »

saver7007 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:15 pm
Random Walker wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:59 pm
No. I have twisted my mind into this sort of thinking in the past too. But markets price risk. And risk and expected return are related. Lower valuations of Int imply greater perceived risk and associated greater expected return. We would expect an efficient market to roughly equalize risk adjusted returns across investments, but not straight returns.

Dave
That makes sense, sort of analogous to the reasoning that stocks are priced for a higher potential ROI than bonds because of the higher risk and volatility. Sort of working the logic backwards, I wonder if the lower returns of ex-US stocks in recent decades is somehow linked to having less risk in ex-US stocks, maybe the market is saying ex-US companies have been less risky investments than US companies and are therefore priced higher relative to expected returns, like bonds would be. I have no idea if that's right just a thought.
I think a lot of the US outperformance is due to mega cap tech driving the index. I don't think it's a risk issue with those stocks, but instead a momentum chasing pile-on mentality of investors across the globe (since US mega cap tech has been incredibly profitable the past 5 years, and US has created an environment that lets these companies thrive). At some point, valuations just get so high that the stock might disappoint despite the company doing very well. I envisioned US tech valuations returning to earth (like they have this year) but didnt imagine ex-us following in lock step.
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by Random Walker »

saver7007 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:15 pm
Random Walker wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:59 pm
No. I have twisted my mind into this sort of thinking in the past too. But markets price risk. And risk and expected return are related. Lower valuations of Int imply greater perceived risk and associated greater expected return. We would expect an efficient market to roughly equalize risk adjusted returns across investments, but not straight returns.

Dave
That makes sense, sort of analogous to the reasoning that stocks are priced for a higher potential ROI than bonds because of the higher risk and volatility. Sort of working the logic backwards, I wonder if the lower returns of ex-US stocks in recent decades is somehow linked to having less risk in ex-US stocks, maybe the market is saying ex-US companies have been less risky investments than US companies and are therefore priced higher relative to expected returns, like bonds would be. I have no idea if that's right just a thought.
Alternatively, sometimes the risk just shows up.

Dave
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by visualguy »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:03 pm
visualguy wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:54 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:51 pm I think VXUS has a really hefty dividend yield at nearly 3.5%

Just keeping pricing parity with US would mean it will outperform due to doubling of the dividend yield
Too bad ex-US pricing in back to what it was in 2006, which is 16 years ago!
Maybe US is next? Wouldn’t be the first time
One is a possibility, the other a sad reality. The only protection is to keep significant resources in non-stock assets.
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by Nathan Drake »

visualguy wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:30 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:03 pm
visualguy wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:54 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:51 pm I think VXUS has a really hefty dividend yield at nearly 3.5%

Just keeping pricing parity with US would mean it will outperform due to doubling of the dividend yield
Too bad ex-US pricing in back to what it was in 2006, which is 16 years ago!
Maybe US is next? Wouldn’t be the first time
One is a possibility, the other a sad reality. The only protection is to keep significant resources in non-stock assets.
It was a sad reality (worse actually, negative real returns) for US in 1966-1982 or 2000-2012.

I don’t particularly care because exUS had higher dividends over this period and thus had positive real returns. I have positions in both US and exUS, growth and value. I am covered across the spectrum of investable equity assets. The start date sensitivity of my portfolio is much less at risk than one comprised of only a single fund alone
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by visualguy »

bigdog34 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:27 pm I envisioned US tech valuations returning to earth (like they have this year) but didnt imagine ex-us following in lock step.
Welcome to the investment that never fails to disappoint. At least there's something consistent about it :wink:
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by whodidntante »

Can we just skip straight to the name-calling? :P
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by Random Walker »

whodidntante wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 11:48 pm Can we just skip straight to the name-calling? :P
Names like “stock picker”, “market timer”, “Factorhead”?

Dave
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by AerialWombat »

Nope. I’m more likely to move to 0% US equities than I am to add any international.
This post is a work of fiction. Any similarity to real financial advice is purely coincidental.
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by Apathizer »

Steadfast wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:53 pm I invested this way from the get-go, because none of the arguments against it are convincing to me.

Valuations imply higher expected returns for global investors versus U.S.-only investors. I'll know in a few decades if expectation met reality. Meanwhile I have been satisfied with my returns. A well diversified portfolio typically includes an underperforming asset.
Exactly. As many of us have said, having a well diversified portfolio means something will likely under-perform at any given time. Since I don't know which assets will under-perform at any given time, I invest in everything.
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by lostdog »

You're better off asking on the reddit bogleheads when it comes to world market cap.

This forum is mostly performance chasing US only indexers with crystal balls. Outdated advice in this regard.

If you're going to change, make sure it's for the right reason and stay the course. Not because you think ex-US is going to outperform based on a hunch.

World market cap is the default position. You have to know more than the average investor to stray from this position. Most likely you don't.
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by pascalwager »

Actually, in the last year or so, I dropped from 50% intl (since 1995) down to current ~40% intl, but actual (variable) world market %.
pascalwager
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by pascalwager »

Random Walker wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 7:31 pm This is exactly what I have done. I was about 60/40 or 70/30 US/Int and figured I’d take advantage of valuations to move towards world market cap 50/50. I DID IT IN 2017! :-) Made sense to me as move towards world market cap, and like you I’ll stay there forever. But as a market timing move, not so hot :-)

Dave
I had to chuckle a bit when you referred to world market cap as 50% intl. I assume that's Larry's influence because he always refers to world market as 50% even if it's down around 40%.
zero_coupon
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by zero_coupon »

I find the idea of "80% Global, 20% Domestic" somewhat appealing. For US investors, this presently amounts to about 68% domestic. International exposure is allowed to float with global market capitalization, with a 20% domestic tilt. This idea was discussed in Siamond's three-part study "50 Years of Investing in the World," which is worth perusing:

https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/2020/03 ... ld-part-1/
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AnnetteLouisan
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Re: anyone else considering moving to market cap weight with international?

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

Charles Joseph wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 2:38 pm Absolutely not.
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