2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

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BogleMelon
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2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by BogleMelon »

3 months ago I was shopping for a new Subaru Forester. I settled on a dealership that estimated 3-4 months wait time.
I then paid a refundable deposit by the end of March.
End of June now, and I am still waiting for the car, the dealership said that my car should be within their "next allocation" (mid July), and it could take up to 2 more months till actual delivery (End of August or September is the expected delivery now!). This dealership doesn't deal directly with the manufacturer rather with "Subaru Distributors Corp" because the territory he is located at (I knew that fact after booking the car).

He also said that currently they tell the customers that the expected wait time is 6 months (this is a lie because I friend of mine emailed and asked them but they gave the same 3-4 months estimated wait time)

Now, by September 2022, the new model 2023 will be almost in the market and the 2022 that I am waiting for would be already 1 year old, should I still buy this car? Or I should ask for a refund and try a different dealer (that deals directly with the manufacturer) and/or wait for the 2023 model?

I hate to wait and hate the stress of shopping again. Also, a lot of our plans are postponed till we can get that car, but at the same time I would hate to be taken advantage of. I am not sure what to do!

Edit to answer questions:
I plan to drive the car for 10 years.
I won't trade my car, the Forester will be a much needed second car.
I haven't signed any contracts, it was an authorization form to process the payment. I added to the form the word "refundable" before signing it. I then got a receipt that only shows the transaction amount and the vendor's name, and that was it.
I don't care about the latest and greatest. I was just seeking some financial wisdom. I feel more comfortable for the confirmation that I was given here to just get the car, so this is probably what I will be doing unless something dramatically changed.

Thanks everyone (more opinions are still welcome though, so feel free to post yours!)
Last edited by BogleMelon on Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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firebirdparts
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by firebirdparts »

I think there's a financial argument for waiting on the 2023.
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Watty
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by Watty »

I bought a new Forester last year so I sort of follow it. I am pretty sure that there will not be any big changes for the 2023 but you might want to check on that.

The only problem I would see would be the 2022 might have a lower resale value if you need to sell it.

The problem with a 2023 is that there will likely be price increases in the MSRP if you can even get it at MSRP. The Forester has been in especially short supply since it is built in Japan which adds additional complications.

You can play with the numbers but I suspect that with the likely higher price of the 2023 it will be a wash with the lower resale price of a 2022.

One other wild card is that the used car market is still crazy and could cool off before you would get the 2023. If you will be selling or trading in your old car then you might get a better price if you can sell it sooner than later.

Another is that the longer you keep your old car the more chance there is that will be some expensive repair.

I would go on and get the 2022. I suspect that you will be very happy with it.
jebmke
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by jebmke »

If I needed a car, I'd take delivery. If I didn't need a car, I would not (but I probably would not have ordered one, either).
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ResearchMed
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by ResearchMed »

I basically agree with Watty.

Also, how long do you tend to keep your cars or plan/hope to keep this next car?
The longer you own the car, the less "one year older" will affect any resale price.

There is more of difference in price between 2017 and 2018 models (as similar as possible/etc.) than between a 2007 and 2008, etc.

IF there were to be a major model change between the two model years, that comparison would change, of course.

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scophreak
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by scophreak »

It's not entirely clear how "old" your specific 2022 might be. Vehicles are produced throughout the year, and any particular model year will have vehicles with a wide range of manufacture dates. Of course, you do have a point that no matter what the manufacture date it is still categorized as a 2022 model, which will be used to determine its value moving forward. As other posters have already indicated, this may or may not be a consideration depending on how long you plan to own the vehicle.
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

You can certainly decide for yourself. But it's not all that unusual and you're not super late in the model year to take delivery in September. My son ordered a 2020 STi in November of 2020. He took delivery in January of 2021. But if it bothers you that much, tell the dealer to wait until ordering opens for the 2023 model year and that you're willing to pay the extra, what likely will be added.
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Flyer24
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by Flyer24 »

Topic moved to Personal Consumer Issues.
onourway
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by onourway »

I wouldn't wait based on this alone. I think the difference in any value will be difficult to discern from other variables in terms of ultimate resale value. Any car made between 2021 and '23 and maybe later is going to come from the 'covid' pool where supply challenges ruled.

I'd expect an MSRP increase and that you might have to go to the back of the line again to change your order. I do know that for one vehicle we follow orders are being converted to the next model year if the delay is long enough.
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burritoLover
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by burritoLover »

The problem is that the 2023 isn't going to be instantly available to you when it releases this fall - there will likely be a backlog of orders so before you can answer this question, you have to see if you can order or get on a list for 2023 model now and get an understanding of when your 2023 car can be delivered especially if you are picky about exact options/colors/trim. For all we know, you 2023 order might be available Jan 2023 so it factors in with how long you can wait.
davemanjam
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by davemanjam »

You're still receiving the car in 2022, so it is not 1 year old.
There is more uncertainty on the 2023 model - is it essentially the same with same features, will you like it, will it be more expensive, will you pay a higher premium to get it in 2022, will it have similar or worse wait time...

There is no compelling reason to wait.
iamlucky13
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by iamlucky13 »

I think the key here is to identify what would be gained by waiting.

As far as I can tell, the 2023 Forester is going to be almost identical to the 2022. It last received a major redesign for the 2018 model year, and had a cosmetic update in 2022 (and maybe some safety system updates? I'm not clear on that). A major redesign might happen again for the 2024 model year, and I see rumors that Subaru may begin offering both a turbocharged option and a plug-in hybrid option for better fuel economy at that time, but a lot of buyers prefer to wait until major changes like that have been on the market for a few years, in case there are any issues to be worked out. I certainly wouldn't wait until 2024 unless you are content to drive your current car that long.

My opinion is that if you have a confirmed price on the 2022 that you are satisfied with, continue to wait for the order you have. Optionally, if you'd prefer to shorten the waiting time, call other dealers and ask them if they can beat beat the price and wait time.
BogleMelon wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:36 amNow, by September 2022, the new model 2023 will be almost in the market and the 2022 that I am waiting for would be already 1 year old,
It won't be 1 year old. It will be brand new. At most, it might have take a few months since it rolled out of the factory until it goes through the distributor and reaches your dealership, but since there are clearly still inventory challenges, it will probably actually be only a few weeks.

Even if in reality the car is already built, and has been sitting in a parking lot in Lafayette, IN since September 2021, it would still be a brand new car, with effectively no miles on it, and the same design as one built in August of 2022, just before the 2023's start rolling off the assembly line.
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galawdawg
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by galawdawg »

It is highly, highly unlikely that your "2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery" unless it was manufactured at the beginning of the 2022 model year and has just been sitting in storage since then. I assume that you are actually referring to the fact that the 2023 model year vehicles may be starting to come out around the time your 2022 model year vehicle is delivered.

In that case, are there any improvements or added features to be had in the 2023 model year vehicle that are very important to you? If so, are you willing to wait six months or more from the date you are able to order a 2023 model year AND willing to pay a premium or higher cost for that 2023 model?

If not, just wait for your 2022 to be delivered (or cancel and find a suitable vehicle that is available from dealer stock). This market is unlike markets in years past when dealers cut prices on current model year vehicles at the end of the model year to clear out that inventory, Instead, most consumers are now paying MSRP or more on current model year vehicles and will pay the (likely increased) MSRP or more on 2023 model year vehicles when those are released for order/sale.
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by psteinx »

Car manufacturers are usually reluctant to increase MSRP mid-year. But I would expect many of them would slap substantial MSRP increases on with the rollover to a new model year, and a very strong selling market.

Assuming the dealer will sell at MSRP + $XXX for a '22, and also at MSRP ('23) + $xxx for a '23, you may save a fair chunk of money, buying a '22. If the car is otherwise basically the same as a '23, it seems a '22 would be the way to go...
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

If you need a car, take delivery, if not, don't.

The warranty starts when the car is purchased.

Me, I would be very surprised if there wasn't a healthy (for the maker) increase in price for the 2023 model.

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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by Lalamimi »

It will be brand new. We almost always purchased the current year car as the next year came out. My husband still has his 2001 Silverado. I have my 2007 Lexus. Bogleheads keep cars a long time. If its the car you want, take it. Or sit and wait for the new ones, with a higher price. My daughter leased a car Dec 2019, had a minor accident (not her fault) in it so she does not want to purchase it. I think she's nuts (for leasing and not just buying it when lease is up in Dec).
livesoft
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by livesoft »

A friend bought a very recent model Subaru Forester from Carmax rather than waiting for new one from the dealer.
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adestefan
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by adestefan »

The greatest trick automakers ever pulled was slapping a different brand of tires on an assembly line and calling it a New Model.

Just take the 2022. It will be fresh off the line in Japan and the long boat ride across the Pacific.
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by loghound »

It's sort of an impossible question for us to help with, no?

I mean if you need the car then just take it, if you want to wait for a 2023 model year then refuse it and hope that the 2023 doesn't take 12 months.

I mean at some point (maybe sometime in 2023?) inventory problems will be gone and this crazy situation will be fixed but for now this is the world we live in.

For what it's worth I work in the electronics industry and I've seen about 6 periods of severe supply chain issues (but nothing as bad as this) -- in 100% of the previous times once the supply chain started easing up it happened really fast. The reason is the problem is at least partially caused by companies 'holding' parts -- once they see the supplies start to catch up all of those hordes supplies hit the market and you all of a sudden have a glut of parts... Again this one is worse than usual but I do expect once things start easing it will happen pretty fast (and for what it's worth I'm already seeing a lot of signs of easing -- it's increasingly easy to get parts)
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by AlphaLess »

1. Can you back out of this contract?
2. Are 2023 model deliveries expected soon?
3. What are the backlogs like?
4. What is the market for used cars?
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Mr. Buzzkill
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Re: 2022 brand new car would be 1 year old upon delivery, should I pass?

Post by Mr. Buzzkill »

BogleMelon wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 9:36 am 3 months ago I was shopping for a new Subaru Forester. I settled on a dealership that estimated 3-4 months wait time.
I then paid a refundable deposit by the end of March.
End of June now, and I am still waiting for the car, the dealership said that my car should be within their "next allocation" (mid July), and it could take up to 2 more months till actual delivery (End of August or September is the expected delivery now!). This dealership doesn't deal directly with the manufacturer rather with "Subaru Distributors Corp" because the territory he is located at (I knew that fact after booking the car).

He also said that currently they tell the customers that the expected wait time is 6 months (this is a lie because I friend of mine emailed and asked them but they gave the same 3-4 months estimated wait time)

Now, by September 2022, the new model 2023 will be almost in the market and the 2022 that I am waiting for would be already 1 year old, should I still buy this car? Or I should ask for a refund and try a different dealer (that deals directly with the manufacturer) and/or wait for the 2023 model?

I hate to wait and hate the stress of shopping again. Also, a lot of our plans are postponed till we can get that car, but at the same time I would hate to be taken advantage of. I am not sure what to do!

In normal times I personally wait until September to buy most recent model year a car off a dealer lot because dealers are motivated to reduce inventory for the new model year which arrives around then. So I get more leverage in negotiations.

But these aren’t normal times.

Your specific VIN will not be physically one year old if it just came off the assembly line with virtually zero miles on odometer. The model year will be about a year old though. That could affect resale value.

Are you buying to trade up/in frequently? Or to hold and drive for long term? Are there significant drivetrain or trim differences between 2023 and 2022 model years?

Could you flip the 2022 quickly at a profit (used car prices are still kinda crazy) and then buy something else while holding onto your current vehicle?

These are the questions that I would ask myself in your situation. Your mileage may vary, pardon the pun. But I like to buy last model year and drive it for 10 years. I don’t need latest and greatest. I still use a 2012 MacBook Pro.
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