Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
- Richard1580
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Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
So, we are now "officially" in a bear market. Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be? More to the point, would you care to explain *why* the bottom will be where you guess. For the record, I have no idea where the bottom will be - but I do find it all amusing.
"The quest is the quest."
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
Thought bottom was Friday, and now we’ve hit new bottom. Market will definitely be above ZERO.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
3401. Because I will start nibbling when it gets down to 3400.
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
no lower than 2409.21 because that was the lowest guess in the 2022 Boglehead Contest https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/con ... fault.aspx
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
2,950. I think a ~38% drop seems reasonable because it's close to a full-on meltdown, but not low enough for expectations of a full collapse.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
S&P 2400 at end of year. I will chase it all the way down with a combo of automated monthly purchases intermingled with tax loss harvesting.
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
I called VTI bottom at $185 a few weeks ago. I still think $185 is a fair price - and that the market will hover around that price point for a couple of years.
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
I'll take SPY for $305.
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
S&P PE=10.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
I plan to do likewise.Mike Scott wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:26 pm S&P 2400 at end of year. I will chase it all the way down with a combo of automated monthly purchases intermingled with tax loss harvesting.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
300, plus or minus 5Richard1580 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:11 pm So, we are now "officially" in a bear market. Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be? More to the point, would you care to explain *why* the bottom will be where you guess. For the record, I have no idea where the bottom will be - but I do find it all amusing.
- CyclingDuo
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
What I have so far when the bottom will be...Richard1580 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:11 pm So, we are now "officially" in a bear market. Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be? More to the point, would you care to explain *why* the bottom will be where you guess. For the record, I have no idea where the bottom will be - but I do find it all amusing.
9:47 AM EST
I'm still working on the day, month, and year that it will occur.
One step at a time...
CyclingDuo
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
I'm preparing mentally and financially for $2400 since a ~50% drop is about as a bad as a post-WWII bear market typically gets.
More likely we'll end up somewhere between $3000—$3400 since if it gets really bad I think the fed will at least pause their rate increases and QT. The average bear market lasts 10 months, suggesting we'll be at or near rock bottom around October.
More likely we'll end up somewhere between $3000—$3400 since if it gets really bad I think the fed will at least pause their rate increases and QT. The average bear market lasts 10 months, suggesting we'll be at or near rock bottom around October.
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
3000 I think is the absolute bottom. We really don't have a dire catalyst like the GFC to justify a 50% drop in the S&P. If we do somehow fall below 3000, I'd be very tempted at putting all the cash I have into the market.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
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Last edited by Robot Monster on Thu Jun 30, 2022 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- drumboy256
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
The bottom is every day I have cash to invest. Solved.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
My guess is somewhere between 3165 and 3275 for S&P 500 between now and end of 2022. Those values place the historic pricing at the 40th percentile (depending on when the low occurs) - which seems reasonable coming down from a historic price point that was in the approx. 85th percentile.
So, I'll put my guess at exactly the halfway mark:
3220 on 10/1/2022
So, I'll put my guess at exactly the halfway mark:
3220 on 10/1/2022
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
Me too, I've set my buy target as 3400.averagedude wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:18 pm 3401. Because I will start nibbling when it gets down to 3400.
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
Robot Monster,Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:25 am Worried this thread will inadvertently encourage market timing. I'm fearful someone might be dissuaded from investing if they're preoccupied by thoughts of where the bottom is.
My 5/25 band based rebalancing is my best "market timing" tool.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
OP,
According to my hazy crystal ball, not any time soon. Folks still assume that the recession is avoidable. We will be at one bottom when folks know that we are or will be in a recession. There could be multiple bottoms.
KlangFool
According to my hazy crystal ball, not any time soon. Folks still assume that the recession is avoidable. We will be at one bottom when folks know that we are or will be in a recession. There could be multiple bottoms.
KlangFool
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- SmileyFace
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
First you have to define how you are measuring the market - S&P500 seems popular but VTI or ITOT probably better.
I will say ITOT = $75 will be the bottom - some way to go yet and a bumpy ride coming for many months.
I will say ITOT = $75 will be the bottom - some way to go yet and a bumpy ride coming for many months.
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
Why would you worry about somebody else's financial decisions?Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:25 am Worried this thread will inadvertently encourage market timing. I'm fearful someone might be dissuaded from investing if they're preoccupied by thoughts of where the bottom is.
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
3100-3200. Seems reasonable to go back to a bit lower than pre-pandemic levels. The huge rise during the pandemic never made sense to me.
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
3350-3400 Will be the bottom.
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
I agree pre-pandemic levels will be reached. S&P at 3000, on September 23, 2022.
You're welcome.
You're welcome.
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
No idea. But as long as rates keep going up and inflation remains elevated, equities should continue to drop. If the media is right that the Fed Funds rate tops out at 4%, then when the 10 year gets to 5-6%, I would expect us to be at the bottom or already coming back up. However, at those much higher yields, I'd expect folks to change their AA. No reason to take unnecessary risk in lots of equities at those rates. And the number of companies that can make decent earnings to combat both inflation and taxes and remain competitive against bonds will be a much smaller list. I'd expect the components of the S&P 500 to change a bit too to reflect that new normal.
Now, if you look at historical bottoms, I'd say we drop up to 50% in total and then start to grind back up. A 30-40% drop fits with historical, so I'd say at least down another 10% from here. And at those lower PEs, equities also start to make more sense. However, with higher inflation, the E bit could continue to drop over the next year on a few sectors in the S&P 500. That would also be a drag lower. Worse case feels like 3000 with 3200 probably a more reasonable bottom.
But the reality is that I'm terrible at guessing tops and bottoms. So instead, I'm focusing on earnings yields and dividends. How much do I need to grow my portfolio over the next ten years if I don't add anything to it? And at what earnings yield plus dividend yield do I get there while still being reasonable with historical norms?
Now, if you look at historical bottoms, I'd say we drop up to 50% in total and then start to grind back up. A 30-40% drop fits with historical, so I'd say at least down another 10% from here. And at those lower PEs, equities also start to make more sense. However, with higher inflation, the E bit could continue to drop over the next year on a few sectors in the S&P 500. That would also be a drag lower. Worse case feels like 3000 with 3200 probably a more reasonable bottom.
But the reality is that I'm terrible at guessing tops and bottoms. So instead, I'm focusing on earnings yields and dividends. How much do I need to grow my portfolio over the next ten years if I don't add anything to it? And at what earnings yield plus dividend yield do I get there while still being reasonable with historical norms?
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
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Last edited by Robot Monster on Thu Jun 30, 2022 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
I say slow bleed w multiples bounces. Calling nadir around 2600-2800. Does winner get tacos?
Secondary question. Where do you think people will capitulate?
Secondary question. Where do you think people will capitulate?
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
Dennisl,
When they are unemployed or out of business.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
pre covid high , spy @ $333 , but i keep buying every day it stays below 380. no way to catch the falling knife and you will have very little time on those low days .
Thanks!
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
1. I have no idea.
2. Anywhere from 2400 to 3000 should not be surprising. But that could be wrong on the downside.
3. Below 2200 would get us into Dot Com or GFC economic event threshold.
4. At some point, asset classes will begin to move independently. That will be a good indicator.
2. Anywhere from 2400 to 3000 should not be surprising. But that could be wrong on the downside.
3. Below 2200 would get us into Dot Com or GFC economic event threshold.
4. At some point, asset classes will begin to move independently. That will be a good indicator.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
When the S&P 500 PE drops to its median value of 15.97.
As I write this, it's about 18.89, https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio,
or 15% above the mean. A 15% drop would put the S&P 500 around 3185. Feel free to check my arithmetic!
Mathematically, the S&P500 could stay flat while earnings increase to achieve the identical result.
Do I get a prize if my guess is correct?
As I write this, it's about 18.89, https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio,
or 15% above the mean. A 15% drop would put the S&P 500 around 3185. Feel free to check my arithmetic!
Mathematically, the S&P500 could stay flat while earnings increase to achieve the identical result.
Do I get a prize if my guess is correct?
Last edited by Church Lady on Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Richard1580
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
I would be enjoying this market more if my AA was going out of band and I could take the opportunity to rebalance. As it is, equities and bonds are both tanking. I get to watch my overall portfolio shrink while I sit and wind my watch - nothing to do.
Looking back at the dot com and financial crashes, you can attribute them to asset bubbles and their inevitable bursting. If this market drops down to those levels it will be interesting what the future blames for the crash.
Looking back at the dot com and financial crashes, you can attribute them to asset bubbles and their inevitable bursting. If this market drops down to those levels it will be interesting what the future blames for the crash.
"The quest is the quest."
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
2580
with an intermediate bounce at 3230
with an intermediate bounce at 3230
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
To hit a bottom you'll need an immediate turnaround where buys > sells. Logically, that would be at the halfway point to max. So for S&P 500 I'd say 2409.31 is that turnaround point. What do I know, it's just a theory!
Taking care of tomorrow while enjoying today.
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
"No one knows nothing." "Just stand there and do nothing." Just buy, buy, buy...
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
The stock market of 2002 is an especially good, even slightly humorous, reminder why nobody knows when markets will bottom out (see Wikipedia link below - boldface mine) and why I can't even hazard a guess for 2022. Back then, even some "experts" were admitting they didn't know what would happen. Then along came Doug Cliggot, then with J.P. Morgan, predicting on Lou Rukeyser's show in early '02 that the market would drop to around 7,000 later that year. (see second link):
https://money.cnn.com/2002/12/19/market ... /index.htmSeeking a bottom[edit]
After falling for 11 of 12 consecutive days closing below Dow 8000 on July 23, 2002, the market rallied. The Dow rose 13% over the next four trading days, but then fell sharply again in early August. On August 5, the NASDAQ fell below its July 23 low. However, the markets rose sharply over the rest of the week, and eventually surpassed Dow 9000 during several trading sessions in late August. After that, the Dow dropped to a four-year low on September 24, 2002, while the NASDAQ reached a 6-year low. The markets continued their declines, breaking the September low to five-year lows on October 7 and reaching a bottom (below Dow 7200 and just above 1100 on the NASDAQ) on October 9. Stocks recovered slightly from their October lows to year-end, with the Dow remaining in the mid-8000s from November 2002 to mid-January 2003. The markets reached a final low below Dow 7500 in mid-March 2003.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
My guess is VTI around 180ish, which is close to pre-pandemic highs. I can see intraday VTI dipping into the 170’s but I doubt it will hold. I predict this recession to last for at least a few years, but the stock market should bottom out this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if inflation remained higher than average for decades (eg 3-4%).
The silver lining is that P/E’s are coming down and yields are rising, so future (expected) returns are looking a lot better. Valuations of global market equities are looking pretty good. We just need to hold on while inflation gets under control and a boglehead portfolio should come out okay on the other side.
The silver lining is that P/E’s are coming down and yields are rising, so future (expected) returns are looking a lot better. Valuations of global market equities are looking pretty good. We just need to hold on while inflation gets under control and a boglehead portfolio should come out okay on the other side.
"Buy-and-hold, long-term, all-market-index strategies, implemented at rock-bottom cost, are the surest of all routes to the accumulation of wealth" - John C. Bogle
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
Less than today. More than zero.Richard1580 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:11 pm So, we are now "officially" in a bear market. Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be? More to the point, would you care to explain *why* the bottom will be where you guess. For the record, I have no idea where the bottom will be - but I do find it all amusing.
But then, I'm just guessing - like everyone else.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
I have no idea.
I'll put my guess here for "fun" though:
overall 40% down from the high by Oct/Nov timeframe
(My guess is just based on feel, the past, and what the market, as well as interest rates and inflation, are doing currently.)
I'll put my guess here for "fun" though:
overall 40% down from the high by Oct/Nov timeframe
(My guess is just based on feel, the past, and what the market, as well as interest rates and inflation, are doing currently.)
Slow and steady wins the race.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
Seems weird to me that there's an aura of doom when all we have is a little inflation, a little raising of interest rates, and a little war. On the historic scale, this seems like a cloudy walk in the park compared to true troubled times. I guess panic is contagious. I'm guessing 3612 but not doing anything about it.
I'm not smart enough to know, and I can't afford to guess.
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
The market usually has its own mind and does not follow the common wisdom/ prevailing opinion.
Practically all the posts here predict a bottom somewhere between 2400 and 3400. So the bottom will probably not be in that range. Which leaves two possible outcomes: The bottom will either be a good amount above 3400 (i.e. we may already be at the bottom or close to it), or we may fall a good amount below 2400.
Practically all the posts here predict a bottom somewhere between 2400 and 3400. So the bottom will probably not be in that range. Which leaves two possible outcomes: The bottom will either be a good amount above 3400 (i.e. we may already be at the bottom or close to it), or we may fall a good amount below 2400.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
This is Fed rate driven. When rates get to 4-5.5% and monthly inflation gets 3% annualized.
- Richard1580
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
Articpineapplecorp posted this graphic in another thread, and I thought it was interesting.
Takeaways:
- Over the last 42 years, the S&P 500 has always dropped below its beginning of the year opening.
- Mean intrayear drop is 14%, median is 10%, mode is 8%.
- Biggest intrayear drop was 49% (2008).
- Biggest year end drop was 38% (2008).
Currently, the S&P 500 is down 22% from the year's opening. Only 6 of the previous 42 years have seen larger intrayear drops.
Make of it what you will, but if I had cash under the mattress, I think I would be buying.
Takeaways:
- Over the last 42 years, the S&P 500 has always dropped below its beginning of the year opening.
- Mean intrayear drop is 14%, median is 10%, mode is 8%.
- Biggest intrayear drop was 49% (2008).
- Biggest year end drop was 38% (2008).
Currently, the S&P 500 is down 22% from the year's opening. Only 6 of the previous 42 years have seen larger intrayear drops.
Make of it what you will, but if I had cash under the mattress, I think I would be buying.
Last edited by Richard1580 on Tue Jun 14, 2022 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The quest is the quest."
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
Irrespective of the general trend of the market, it will always decline on the 4th and 19th of each month, the reason being that my bi-monthly auto investments are on the 3rd and 18th.
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
From a technical chart, it would make sense if we round trip to 3200 on S&P 500 back to the precovid highs. Just a guess. I am actually not that pessimistic but it could happen.
Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?
In the 80's my father-in-law urinated away millions of dollars away on Fibonacci Retracement prediction of future market behavior.
Fibonacci Technical Analysis points to November 21st 2022 as being the bottom of the market with an S&P 500 index value of 2304.92. Mark my words.
For Admin: what do you mean it's not April Fools Day?
[Distracting graphic removed by moderator oldcomputerguy]
Fibonacci Technical Analysis points to November 21st 2022 as being the bottom of the market with an S&P 500 index value of 2304.92. Mark my words.
For Admin: what do you mean it's not April Fools Day?
[Distracting graphic removed by moderator oldcomputerguy]
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