Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
User avatar
Topic Author
Richard1580
Posts: 336
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:53 pm
Location: Flyover country

Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Richard1580 »

So, we are now "officially" in a bear market. Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be? More to the point, would you care to explain *why* the bottom will be where you guess. For the record, I have no idea where the bottom will be - but I do find it all amusing.
"The quest is the quest."
sc9182
Posts: 2178
Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2016 7:43 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by sc9182 »

Thought bottom was Friday, and now we’ve hit new bottom. Market will definitely be above ZERO.
PharmerBrown
Posts: 170
Joined: Sat Mar 08, 2014 6:50 pm
Location: Pennsylvania

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by PharmerBrown »

2400.
averagedude
Posts: 1772
Joined: Sun May 13, 2018 3:41 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by averagedude »

3401. Because I will start nibbling when it gets down to 3400.
User avatar
ccf
Posts: 438
Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2015 9:13 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by ccf »

no lower than 2409.21 because that was the lowest guess in the 2022 Boglehead Contest https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/con ... fault.aspx
Abalyon
Posts: 51
Joined: Tue May 10, 2022 6:11 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Abalyon »

2,950. I think a ~38% drop seems reasonable because it's close to a full-on meltdown, but not low enough for expectations of a full collapse.
Mike Scott
Posts: 3579
Joined: Fri Jul 19, 2013 2:45 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Mike Scott »

S&P 2400 at end of year. I will chase it all the way down with a combo of automated monthly purchases intermingled with tax loss harvesting.
m@ver1ck
Posts: 598
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2018 2:18 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by m@ver1ck »

I called VTI bottom at $185 a few weeks ago. I still think $185 is a fair price - and that the market will hover around that price point for a couple of years.
User avatar
Drew31
Posts: 736
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2012 1:18 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Drew31 »

I'll take SPY for $305.
afan
Posts: 8193
Joined: Sun Jul 25, 2010 4:01 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by afan »

S&P PE=10.
We don't know how to beat the market on a risk-adjusted basis, and we don't know anyone that does know either | --Swedroe | We assume that markets are efficient, that prices are right | --Fama
mikejuss
Posts: 2833
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:36 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by mikejuss »

Mike Scott wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:26 pm S&P 2400 at end of year. I will chase it all the way down with a combo of automated monthly purchases intermingled with tax loss harvesting.
I plan to do likewise. :sharebeer
50% VTSAX | 25% VTIAX | 25% VBTLX (retirement), 25% VTEAX (taxable)
manatee2005
Posts: 2136
Joined: Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:17 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by manatee2005 »

Richard1580 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:11 pm So, we are now "officially" in a bear market. Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be? More to the point, would you care to explain *why* the bottom will be where you guess. For the record, I have no idea where the bottom will be - but I do find it all amusing.
300, plus or minus 5
User avatar
CyclingDuo
Posts: 6008
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 8:07 am

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by CyclingDuo »

Richard1580 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:11 pm So, we are now "officially" in a bear market. Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be? More to the point, would you care to explain *why* the bottom will be where you guess. For the record, I have no idea where the bottom will be - but I do find it all amusing.
What I have so far when the bottom will be...

9:47 AM EST

I'm still working on the day, month, and year that it will occur.

One step at a time...

:sharebeer

CyclingDuo
"Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist." - Morgan Housel | "Pick a bushel, save a peck!" - Grandpa
DH0
Posts: 100
Joined: Thu Jan 11, 2018 2:00 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by DH0 »

I'm preparing mentally and financially for $2400 since a ~50% drop is about as a bad as a post-WWII bear market typically gets.

More likely we'll end up somewhere between $3000—$3400 since if it gets really bad I think the fed will at least pause their rate increases and QT. The average bear market lasts 10 months, suggesting we'll be at or near rock bottom around October.
atdharris
Posts: 2091
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 2:18 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by atdharris »

3000 I think is the absolute bottom. We really don't have a dire catalyst like the GFC to justify a 50% drop in the S&P. If we do somehow fall below 3000, I'd be very tempted at putting all the cash I have into the market.
Robot Monster
Posts: 4215
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Robot Monster »

Deleted
Last edited by Robot Monster on Thu Jun 30, 2022 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
drumboy256
Posts: 673
Joined: Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:21 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by drumboy256 »

The bottom is every day I have cash to invest. Solved. :sharebeer
Promise is one thing. Fulfilling that promise is quite another. - Sir Alex Ferguson | 20% IVV / 40% IBIT / 20% IXUS / 20% VGLT + chill
User avatar
AnnetteLouisan
Posts: 7261
Joined: Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:16 pm
Location: New York, NY

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

VTI $181.
incognito_man
Posts: 169
Joined: Fri Sep 08, 2017 11:00 pm
Location: Madison, WI

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by incognito_man »

My guess is somewhere between 3165 and 3275 for S&P 500 between now and end of 2022. Those values place the historic pricing at the 40th percentile (depending on when the low occurs) - which seems reasonable coming down from a historic price point that was in the approx. 85th percentile.

So, I'll put my guess at exactly the halfway mark:

3220 on 10/1/2022
User avatar
jfn111
Posts: 1377
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2013 9:42 pm
Location: Minnesota

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by jfn111 »

averagedude wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:18 pm 3401. Because I will start nibbling when it gets down to 3400.
Me too, I've set my buy target as 3400. :sharebeer
KlangFool
Posts: 31525
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by KlangFool »

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:25 am Worried this thread will inadvertently encourage market timing. I'm fearful someone might be dissuaded from investing if they're preoccupied by thoughts of where the bottom is.
Robot Monster,

My 5/25 band based rebalancing is my best "market timing" tool.

KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
KlangFool
Posts: 31525
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by KlangFool »

OP,

According to my hazy crystal ball, not any time soon. Folks still assume that the recession is avoidable. We will be at one bottom when folks know that we are or will be in a recession. There could be multiple bottoms.

KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
User avatar
SmileyFace
Posts: 9184
Joined: Wed Feb 19, 2014 9:11 am

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by SmileyFace »

First you have to define how you are measuring the market - S&P500 seems popular but VTI or ITOT probably better.
I will say ITOT = $75 will be the bottom - some way to go yet and a bumpy ride coming for many months.
CFR
Posts: 78
Joined: Sun Jan 22, 2017 12:35 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by CFR »

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:25 am Worried this thread will inadvertently encourage market timing. I'm fearful someone might be dissuaded from investing if they're preoccupied by thoughts of where the bottom is.
Why would you worry about somebody else's financial decisions?
visualguy
Posts: 2988
Joined: Thu Jan 30, 2014 12:32 am

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by visualguy »

3100-3200. Seems reasonable to go back to a bit lower than pre-pandemic levels. The huge rise during the pandemic never made sense to me.
KyleAAA
Posts: 9498
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:35 pm
Contact:

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by KyleAAA »

3350-3400 Will be the bottom.
Desert
Posts: 141
Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 6:21 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Desert »

I agree pre-pandemic levels will be reached. S&P at 3000, on September 23, 2022.

You're welcome. :happy
rockstar
Posts: 6326
Joined: Mon Feb 03, 2020 5:51 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by rockstar »

No idea. But as long as rates keep going up and inflation remains elevated, equities should continue to drop. If the media is right that the Fed Funds rate tops out at 4%, then when the 10 year gets to 5-6%, I would expect us to be at the bottom or already coming back up. However, at those much higher yields, I'd expect folks to change their AA. No reason to take unnecessary risk in lots of equities at those rates. And the number of companies that can make decent earnings to combat both inflation and taxes and remain competitive against bonds will be a much smaller list. I'd expect the components of the S&P 500 to change a bit too to reflect that new normal.

Now, if you look at historical bottoms, I'd say we drop up to 50% in total and then start to grind back up. A 30-40% drop fits with historical, so I'd say at least down another 10% from here. And at those lower PEs, equities also start to make more sense. However, with higher inflation, the E bit could continue to drop over the next year on a few sectors in the S&P 500. That would also be a drag lower. Worse case feels like 3000 with 3200 probably a more reasonable bottom.

But the reality is that I'm terrible at guessing tops and bottoms. So instead, I'm focusing on earnings yields and dividends. How much do I need to grow my portfolio over the next ten years if I don't add anything to it? And at what earnings yield plus dividend yield do I get there while still being reasonable with historical norms?
Robot Monster
Posts: 4215
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Robot Monster »

Deleted
Last edited by Robot Monster on Thu Jun 30, 2022 6:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Dennisl
Posts: 343
Joined: Sun Jun 09, 2019 1:46 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Dennisl »

I say slow bleed w multiples bounces. Calling nadir around 2600-2800. Does winner get tacos?

Secondary question. Where do you think people will capitulate? :twisted:
strummer6969
Posts: 978
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2020 10:59 am

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by strummer6969 »

afan wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:44 pmS&P PE=10.
:shock: Deep down I know though this is what has to happen.
KlangFool
Posts: 31525
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by KlangFool »

Dennisl wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 11:27 am I say slow bleed w multiples bounces. Calling nadir around 2600-2800. Does winner get tacos?

Secondary question. Where do you think people will capitulate? :twisted:
Dennisl,

When they are unemployed or out of business.

KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
manuvns
Posts: 1465
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2008 1:30 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by manuvns »

pre covid high , spy @ $333 , but i keep buying every day it stays below 380. no way to catch the falling knife and you will have very little time on those low days .
Thanks!
SantaClaraSurfer
Posts: 736
Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2019 10:09 am

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by SantaClaraSurfer »

1. I have no idea.

2. Anywhere from 2400 to 3000 should not be surprising. But that could be wrong on the downside.

3. Below 2200 would get us into Dot Com or GFC economic event threshold.

4. At some point, asset classes will begin to move independently. That will be a good indicator.
Church Lady
Posts: 820
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2014 7:49 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Church Lady »

When the S&P 500 PE drops to its median value of 15.97.

As I write this, it's about 18.89, https://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-pe-ratio,
or 15% above the mean. A 15% drop would put the S&P 500 around 3185. Feel free to check my arithmetic!

Mathematically, the S&P500 could stay flat while earnings increase to achieve the identical result.

Do I get a prize if my guess is correct?
Last edited by Church Lady on Tue Jun 14, 2022 12:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
He that loveth silver shall not be satisfied with silver; nor he that loveth abundance with increase: this is also vanity.
User avatar
Topic Author
Richard1580
Posts: 336
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:53 pm
Location: Flyover country

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Richard1580 »

I would be enjoying this market more if my AA was going out of band and I could take the opportunity to rebalance. As it is, equities and bonds are both tanking. I get to watch my overall portfolio shrink while I sit and wind my watch - nothing to do.

Looking back at the dot com and financial crashes, you can attribute them to asset bubbles and their inevitable bursting. If this market drops down to those levels it will be interesting what the future blames for the crash.
"The quest is the quest."
MathWizard
Posts: 6560
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2011 1:35 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by MathWizard »

2580

with an intermediate bounce at 3230
srt7
Posts: 1357
Joined: Mon Sep 29, 2014 12:19 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by srt7 »

To hit a bottom you'll need an immediate turnaround where buys > sells. Logically, that would be at the halfway point to max. So for S&P 500 I'd say 2409.31 is that turnaround point. What do I know, it's just a theory! :D
Taking care of tomorrow while enjoying today.
User avatar
Spinola
Posts: 328
Joined: Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:32 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Spinola »

"No one knows nothing." "Just stand there and do nothing." Just buy, buy, buy...
"If more of us valued food and cheer and song above hoarded gold, it would be a merrier world." | Thorin Oakenshield
Fallible
Posts: 8798
Joined: Fri Nov 27, 2009 3:44 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Fallible »

The stock market of 2002 is an especially good, even slightly humorous, reminder why nobody knows when markets will bottom out (see Wikipedia link below - boldface mine) and why I can't even hazard a guess for 2022. Back then, even some "experts" were admitting they didn't know what would happen. Then along came Doug Cliggot, then with J.P. Morgan, predicting on Lou Rukeyser's show in early '02 that the market would drop to around 7,000 later that year. (see second link):
Seeking a bottom[edit]

After falling for 11 of 12 consecutive days closing below Dow 8000 on July 23, 2002, the market rallied. The Dow rose 13% over the next four trading days, but then fell sharply again in early August. On August 5, the NASDAQ fell below its July 23 low. However, the markets rose sharply over the rest of the week, and eventually surpassed Dow 9000 during several trading sessions in late August. After that, the Dow dropped to a four-year low on September 24, 2002, while the NASDAQ reached a 6-year low. The markets continued their declines, breaking the September low to five-year lows on October 7 and reaching a bottom (below Dow 7200 and just above 1100 on the NASDAQ) on October 9. Stocks recovered slightly from their October lows to year-end, with the Dow remaining in the mid-8000s from November 2002 to mid-January 2003. The markets reached a final low below Dow 7500 in mid-March 2003.
https://money.cnn.com/2002/12/19/market ... /index.htm
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
User avatar
aj76er
Posts: 1179
Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2015 10:34 pm
Location: Austin, TX

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by aj76er »

My guess is VTI around 180ish, which is close to pre-pandemic highs. I can see intraday VTI dipping into the 170’s but I doubt it will hold. I predict this recession to last for at least a few years, but the stock market should bottom out this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if inflation remained higher than average for decades (eg 3-4%).

The silver lining is that P/E’s are coming down and yields are rising, so future (expected) returns are looking a lot better. Valuations of global market equities are looking pretty good. We just need to hold on while inflation gets under control and a boglehead portfolio should come out okay on the other side.
"Buy-and-hold, long-term, all-market-index strategies, implemented at rock-bottom cost, are the surest of all routes to the accumulation of wealth" - John C. Bogle
User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 15381
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:44 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by JoeRetire »

Richard1580 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:11 pm So, we are now "officially" in a bear market. Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be? More to the point, would you care to explain *why* the bottom will be where you guess. For the record, I have no idea where the bottom will be - but I do find it all amusing.
Less than today. More than zero.
But then, I'm just guessing - like everyone else.
This isn't just my wallet. It's an organizer, a memory and an old friend.
DidItMyWay
Posts: 287
Joined: Sun Feb 13, 2011 4:19 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by DidItMyWay »

I have no idea.
I'll put my guess here for "fun" though: :)

overall 40% down from the high by Oct/Nov timeframe

(My guess is just based on feel, the past, and what the market, as well as interest rates and inflation, are doing currently.)
Slow and steady wins the race.
harvestbook
Posts: 871
Joined: Sat Mar 18, 2017 7:12 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by harvestbook »

Seems weird to me that there's an aura of doom when all we have is a little inflation, a little raising of interest rates, and a little war. On the historic scale, this seems like a cloudy walk in the park compared to true troubled times. I guess panic is contagious. I'm guessing 3612 but not doing anything about it.
I'm not smart enough to know, and I can't afford to guess.
User avatar
Ocean77
Posts: 800
Joined: Wed Oct 23, 2019 3:20 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Ocean77 »

The market usually has its own mind and does not follow the common wisdom/ prevailing opinion.

Practically all the posts here predict a bottom somewhere between 2400 and 3400. So the bottom will probably not be in that range. Which leaves two possible outcomes: The bottom will either be a good amount above 3400 (i.e. we may already be at the bottom or close to it), or we may fall a good amount below 2400.
30% US Stocks | 30% Int Stocks | 40% Bonds
atlguy
Posts: 71
Joined: Sat Apr 02, 2022 12:20 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by atlguy »

This is Fed rate driven. When rates get to 4-5.5% and monthly inflation gets 3% annualized.
User avatar
Topic Author
Richard1580
Posts: 336
Joined: Fri Aug 25, 2017 7:53 pm
Location: Flyover country

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Richard1580 »

Articpineapplecorp posted this graphic in another thread, and I thought it was interesting.
Image

Takeaways:
- Over the last 42 years, the S&P 500 has always dropped below its beginning of the year opening.
- Mean intrayear drop is 14%, median is 10%, mode is 8%.
- Biggest intrayear drop was 49% (2008).
- Biggest year end drop was 38% (2008).

Currently, the S&P 500 is down 22% from the year's opening. Only 6 of the previous 42 years have seen larger intrayear drops.

Make of it what you will, but if I had cash under the mattress, I think I would be buying.
Last edited by Richard1580 on Tue Jun 14, 2022 4:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The quest is the quest."
egri
Posts: 177
Joined: Mon Apr 04, 2022 10:22 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by egri »

Irrespective of the general trend of the market, it will always decline on the 4th and 19th of each month, the reason being that my bi-monthly auto investments are on the 3rd and 18th. :annoyed
ksualum
Posts: 233
Joined: Mon Jan 15, 2018 2:01 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by ksualum »

From a technical chart, it would make sense if we round trip to 3200 on S&P 500 back to the precovid highs. Just a guess. I am actually not that pessimistic but it could happen.
User avatar
calmaniac
Posts: 1325
Joined: Fri Jan 30, 2015 2:32 pm

Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by calmaniac »

In the 80's my father-in-law urinated away millions of dollars away on Fibonacci Retracement prediction of future market behavior.

Fibonacci Technical Analysis points to November 21st 2022 as being the bottom of the market with an S&P 500 index value of 2304.92. Mark my words.

For Admin: what do you mean it's not April Fools Day?

[Distracting graphic removed by moderator oldcomputerguy]
"Pretired", working 20 h/wk. AA 75/25: 30% TSM, 19% value (VFVA/AVUV), 18% Int'l LC, 8% emerging, 25% GFund/VBTLX. Military pension ≈60% of expenses. Pension+SS@age 70 ≈100% of expenses.
Locked