"Long-term investing" is not about "scooping up deals".ClassII wrote: ↑Sun May 22, 2022 12:28 amIt's all fun and games until someone gets laid off. I used to work for a guy who's grandfather made a kajillion dollars during the Great Depression. All he had to do was buy up a ton of real estate! Helped of course that he had money all the way through the 20s and 30s when everyone else lost everything. Smart guy for sure but also extremely lucky he a) had the business acumen b) had the money when nobody else did and c) didn't manage to step on any land mines along the way.
I remember being in Miami in 2009 and a brand new high-rise right on the water was selling condos for $80k. Man I wish I had bought back then but I was dead broke and living paycheck to paycheck simply happy to have a job. I had friends moving back with their parents, leaving the career they worked hard for in college for good, even had one die in an accident working construction to keep food on the table. The deals were there, I saw them right before my eyes but I was in no position to reach out and grab them.
Its a great thing that so many here are ready to scoop up some amazing deals. Truly you could end up like my boss' grandfather BUT don't think that recessions are for other people. There's a reason everything goes on fire sale.
I'm talking about 401k money, money you had saved. $100,000 in your retirement accounts dropped to $50,000... and then recovered to $100,000 after a few years, and then grew to $400,000 today. Giving you a 9.2% return a year from 2007 to today.
And you didn't have to do anything.
That 9.2% a year return INCLUDES the crash. You didn't have to avoid it to get rich anyway.
So yes, "more of the same", please. A crash that recovers in a few years and then grows 400% over the next 10 years is nothing to fear.
What one should fear is something "different".
No idea why CraigTester fears a repeat of the past. Doing absolutely nothing, buy and hold, stay the course, made us rich.
(Note I don't think this time will be an exact repeat of the past - I just think his comment makes no sense)
Edit: Also, yes if you got laid off and had no emergency fund, and had to pull money from your retirement fund, then you didn't do as well. But that is why we stress having a solid emergency fund, and not being 100% in stocks with money you might need in the short-term. Everyone should always have a plan for a possible loss of a job.