Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Have a question about your personal investments? No matter how simple or complex, you can ask it here.
mega317
Posts: 5705
Joined: Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:55 am

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by mega317 »

Depending on why you need the money, the best option might be go into hiding.
User avatar
retiredjg
Posts: 54082
Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2008 11:56 am

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by retiredjg »

If you have $300k now and you need no less than $300k in 1.5 years, the only thing you can do with it is put it into high yield savings, CD, or money market. Something that cannot lose value.

If you have a little leeway, you could use a short term bond for part of it. And hope.

Or you can gamble and invest it. You might get lucky. You might not.

You cannot buy that much in I Bonds at one time. Only $10k a year per person.
Last edited by retiredjg on Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
eosin
Posts: 99
Joined: Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:33 am

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by eosin »

Depends on what you mean by need. If it's something that you really must pay for in 1.5 years, the stock market is never the place to park your cash. Interest rates are going up, so HYSA is looking more and more attractive. You could also look at CDs.
eosin
Posts: 99
Joined: Tue Jun 09, 2020 12:33 am

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by eosin »

Per your original post, I would add that for the most part, you can only purchase $10K of I-bonds per year. So that won't help you.
User avatar
anon_investor
Posts: 15122
Joined: Mon Jun 03, 2019 1:43 pm

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by anon_investor »

eosin wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:50 pm Depends on what you mean by need. If it's something that you really must pay for in 1.5 years, the stock market is never the place to park your cash. Interest rates are going up, so HYSA is looking more and more attractive. You could also look at CDs.
I would do T-Bills.
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by newyorker »

mary1492 wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:47 pm What do your holdings look like at this moment?
1 mil in taxable
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by newyorker »

livesoft wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:45 pm Start with $600K of cash and invest it all in Total Stock Market Index fund.
🥺

You are scaring me
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by newyorker »

eosin wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:50 pm Depends on what you mean by need. If it's something that you really must pay for in 1.5 years, the stock market is never the place to park your cash. Interest rates are going up, so HYSA is looking more and more attractive. You could also look at CDs.
Not Must! But do need DP for a house in 1.5 years or so
acejacksingh
Posts: 379
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2014 10:15 am

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by acejacksingh »

livesoft wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:45 pm Start with $600K of cash and invest it all in Total Stock Market Index fund.
:sharebeer
User avatar
windaar
Posts: 1674
Joined: Thu Mar 08, 2012 6:31 am

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by windaar »

Of course you're asking an impossible question. Go to Vegas and put everything on red.
Nobody knows nothing.
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by newyorker »

windaar wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:29 pm Of course you're asking an impossible question. Go to Vegas and put everything on red.
I knowww just asking everyone what they would do if they were me.
User avatar
FiveK
Posts: 15742
Joined: Sun Mar 16, 2014 2:43 pm

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by FiveK »

newyorker wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:42 pm What is a better way?
Once your hindsight glasses start working, you'll know.

But if you really, really want to be sure: savings account.
professor_americus
Posts: 104
Joined: Fri May 28, 2021 11:25 pm

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by professor_americus »

What is the asset allocation of the "1 mil" taxable? Do you have significant losses that can be harvested now?

How much additional cash/savings can you accumulate over 1.5 years relative to your $300k target?

The way you phrased the original questions seems to me like you are asking how to invest new money. For new money invested on periodic basis over the next 1.5 years, how much upside do you really see in equities? Is the potential upside worth it relative to potential downside and tolerance to sell at a loss and/or postpone home purchase?
drk
Posts: 3946
Joined: Mon Jul 24, 2017 10:33 pm

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by drk »

If you have the cash right now and need the exact amount in 18 months, put it into a money market fund or buy Treasurys expiring that month.

But, really, you should post a portfolio review thread to get your asset allocation settled once and for all. You posted a question about what to do with $400k two months ago.
Last edited by drk on Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 95704
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by LadyGeek »

newyorker - In order to provide appropriate advice, it's best to keep all the information in one spot. I merged your update back into the original thread. If you have any questions, ask them here.

(Thanks to the member who reported the post and provided a link to this thread.)
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 95704
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by LadyGeek »

livesoft wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:45 pm Start with $600K of cash and invest it all in Total Stock Market Index fund.
:)
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Nicolas
Posts: 4923
Joined: Wed Aug 22, 2012 7:41 am

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by Nicolas »

livesoft wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:45 pm Start with $600K of cash and invest it all in Total Stock Market Index fund.
So we’re going down 50% from here?
livesoft
Posts: 86080
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:00 pm

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by livesoft »

Nicolas wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:12 pm
livesoft wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:45 pm Start with $600K of cash and invest it all in Total Stock Market Index fund.
So we’re going down 50% from here?
Is that right? That would be news to me.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by newyorker »

livesoft wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:26 pm
Nicolas wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 7:12 pm
livesoft wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:45 pm Start with $600K of cash and invest it all in Total Stock Market Index fund.
So we’re going down 50% from here?
Is that right? That would be news to me.
That would be bad
sleepy06
Posts: 397
Joined: Tue Oct 18, 2016 8:20 pm

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by sleepy06 »

Some each of 1, 3, 4 to your liking.
er999
Posts: 1344
Joined: Wed Nov 05, 2008 10:00 am

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by er999 »

Did you end up buying a cool car yet?
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 21282
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by HomerJ »

newyorker wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:30 pm
windaar wrote: Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:29 pm Of course you're asking an impossible question. Go to Vegas and put everything on red.
I knowww just asking everyone what they would do if they were me.
Short-term money should not be in the stock market. I don't think anyone has EVER said anything different here.

$300k in 1.5 years should be in savings account or the equivalent.

I'm pretty sure you know this.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Marseille07
Posts: 16054
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by Marseille07 »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:44 pm Short-term money should not be in the stock market. I don't think anyone has EVER said anything different here.

$300k in 1.5 years should be in savings account or the equivalent.

I'm pretty sure you know this.
I need to start saving up; my original plan was to sell equities as necessary, but it appears better to just hold more cash :sob:
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by newyorker »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:48 pm
HomerJ wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:44 pm Short-term money should not be in the stock market. I don't think anyone has EVER said anything different here.

$300k in 1.5 years should be in savings account or the equivalent.

I'm pretty sure you know this.
I need to start saving up; my original plan was to sell equities as necessary, but it appears better to just hold more cash :sob:

Ugh market may drop further
Marseille07
Posts: 16054
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by Marseille07 »

newyorker wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 6:18 pm Ugh market may drop further
My current idea is to temporarily fixate my cash target. So instead of something like 80/20, I'd have XYZ/300K or however much I need in cash.
clip651
Posts: 1586
Joined: Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:02 am

Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years

Post by clip651 »

newyorker wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 6:18 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:48 pm
HomerJ wrote: Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:44 pm Short-term money should not be in the stock market. I don't think anyone has EVER said anything different here.

$300k in 1.5 years should be in savings account or the equivalent.

I'm pretty sure you know this.
I need to start saving up; my original plan was to sell equities as necessary, but it appears better to just hold more cash :sob:

Ugh market may drop further
Market may drop further is always possible - even if/when it's already dropped a bunch. And recovery might be slow, or bumpy, or there might not be a recovery in the timeline that makes sense to you, and it might stay flat or keep declining or ...

That's why short term money shouldn't be in the stock market. You may wish this weren't true (wishing the "stonks only go up" meme/joke that had been floating around the past few years when we had such great returns was actually true), but it's still true. Market may drop further. Yep.
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by newyorker »

Update guys

1) Bought an investment property
2) Currently have 1.1M in Taxable
3) Cash of 250k

Was thinking of buying an exotic car but is it a wise move at this point? Seems like an exotic car market is dropping in value too. Is now the best time or wait few months?
er999
Posts: 1344
Joined: Wed Nov 05, 2008 10:00 am

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by er999 »

newyorker wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:14 pm Update guys

1) Bought an investment property
2) Currently have 1.1M in Taxable
3) Cash of 250k

Was thinking of buying an exotic car but is it a wise move at this point? Seems like an exotic car market is dropping in value too. Is now the best time or wait few months?
By your username I assume you live in New York so you may be coming to the end of good weather for driving in the next 1-2 months so may not much driving time until Spring if you buy now. If there’s a recession next year that would of course be a better time to buy toy cars as prices may decline.

But you’ve been interested for awhile in buying an exotic car, at least since January 7 months ago, so if you really want one maybe start shopping and buy one now even if it isn’t the absolutely best price. I’d be very picky on the color and look nationwide and have fun with a road trip bringing it home. Also enjoy shopping and the research process.
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by newyorker »

er999 wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:54 pm
newyorker wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:14 pm Update guys

1) Bought an investment property
2) Currently have 1.1M in Taxable
3) Cash of 250k

Was thinking of buying an exotic car but is it a wise move at this point? Seems like an exotic car market is dropping in value too. Is now the best time or wait few months?
By your username I assume you live in New York so you may be coming to the end of good weather for driving in the next 1-2 months so may not much driving time until Spring if you buy now. If there’s a recession next year that would of course be a better time to buy toy cars as prices may decline.

But you’ve been interested for awhile in buying an exotic car, at least since January 7 months ago, so if you really want one maybe start shopping and buy one now even if it isn’t the absolutely best price. I’d be very picky on the color and look nationwide and have fun with a road trip bringing it home. Also enjoy shopping and the research process.

I moved out of nyc few years ago. Currently in MCOL and loving it. I think exotic car prices peaked in March/April and slowly coming down now.
Itogliano
Posts: 244
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2022 2:48 pm

Post by Itogliano »

newyorker wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:03 pm I moved out of nyc few years ago. Currently in MCOL and loving it. I think exotic car prices peaked in March/April and slowly coming down now.
Assuming you end up getting the car at some point, my input as a fellow petrolhead: if you plan to track the car a lot (every month or more), go with the GT3 RS. If you don't plan to track or only track occasionally, go with the Ferrari. 430 if you can find a scud, otherwise base 458 or 458 spider. As great as the speciale is, it's not as "daily" drivable and it's currently getting the Carrera experience. I've seen some listings now over $1M... Says something about how loved it is when the average speciale listing (~6-700) is higher than the average 488 pista
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re:

Post by newyorker »

Itogliano wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:17 pm
newyorker wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:03 pm I moved out of nyc few years ago. Currently in MCOL and loving it. I think exotic car prices peaked in March/April and slowly coming down now.
Assuming you end up getting the car at some point, my input as a fellow petrolhead: if you plan to track the car a lot (every month or more), go with the GT3 RS. If you don't plan to track or only track occasionally, go with the Ferrari. 430 if you can find a scud, otherwise base 458 or 458 spider. As great as the speciale is, it's not as "daily" drivable and it's currently getting the Carrera experience. I've seen some listings now over $1M... Says something about how loved it is when the average speciale listing (~6-700) is higher than the average 488 pista
I agree. 430 scud must be nice too. 458 speciale price is little nuts. 1m+ must be SpA. Anyways, would you get a car now or wait a while?
Itogliano
Posts: 244
Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2022 2:48 pm

Re: Re:

Post by Itogliano »

newyorker wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:37 pm
Itogliano wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:17 pm
newyorker wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:03 pm I moved out of nyc few years ago. Currently in MCOL and loving it. I think exotic car prices peaked in March/April and slowly coming down now.
Assuming you end up getting the car at some point, my input as a fellow petrolhead: if you plan to track the car a lot (every month or more), go with the GT3 RS. If you don't plan to track or only track occasionally, go with the Ferrari. 430 if you can find a scud, otherwise base 458 or 458 spider. As great as the speciale is, it's not as "daily" drivable and it's currently getting the Carrera experience. I've seen some listings now over $1M... Says something about how loved it is when the average speciale listing (~6-700) is higher than the average 488 pista
I agree. 430 scud must be nice too. 458 speciale price is little nuts. 1m+ must be SpA. Anyways, would you get a car now or wait a while?
I'd start looking now to see what's available but might wait a little while to see if prices continue to trend down, but that would just be to get a better deal, not looking for a better ROI. The potential future value of a car, exotic or not, is never a consideration for me personally. If you have the same viewpoint, like I said, I'd start looking now and wouldn't hesitate if you come across something that YOU feel is a good deal. If appreciation is something you're trying to capitalize on, I would recommend talking to people in the exotic sales world (like Doug Tabbutt [switchcars.com] or Ed Bolian) to see if they have any insight into how they see the market trending, as anything I would say would just be pure speculation.
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Re:

Post by newyorker »

Itogliano wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:00 pm
newyorker wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:37 pm
Itogliano wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:17 pm
newyorker wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:03 pm I moved out of nyc few years ago. Currently in MCOL and loving it. I think exotic car prices peaked in March/April and slowly coming down now.
Assuming you end up getting the car at some point, my input as a fellow petrolhead: if you plan to track the car a lot (every month or more), go with the GT3 RS. If you don't plan to track or only track occasionally, go with the Ferrari. 430 if you can find a scud, otherwise base 458 or 458 spider. As great as the speciale is, it's not as "daily" drivable and it's currently getting the Carrera experience. I've seen some listings now over $1M... Says something about how loved it is when the average speciale listing (~6-700) is higher than the average 488 pista
I agree. 430 scud must be nice too. 458 speciale price is little nuts. 1m+ must be SpA. Anyways, would you get a car now or wait a while?
I'd start looking now to see what's available but might wait a little while to see if prices continue to trend down, but that would just be to get a better deal, not looking for a better ROI. The potential future value of a car, exotic or not, is never a consideration for me personally. If you have the same viewpoint, like I said, I'd start looking now and wouldn't hesitate if you come across something that YOU feel is a good deal. If appreciation is something you're trying to capitalize on, I would recommend talking to people in the exotic sales world (like Doug Tabbutt [switchcars.com] or Ed Bolian) to see if they have any insight into how they see the market trending, as anything I would say would just be pure speculation.
Sent you a pm!
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Re:

Post by newyorker »

Itogliano wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:00 pm
newyorker wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:37 pm
Itogliano wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:17 pm
newyorker wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:03 pm I moved out of nyc few years ago. Currently in MCOL and loving it. I think exotic car prices peaked in March/April and slowly coming down now.
Assuming you end up getting the car at some point, my input as a fellow petrolhead: if you plan to track the car a lot (every month or more), go with the GT3 RS. If you don't plan to track or only track occasionally, go with the Ferrari. 430 if you can find a scud, otherwise base 458 or 458 spider. As great as the speciale is, it's not as "daily" drivable and it's currently getting the Carrera experience. I've seen some listings now over $1M... Says something about how loved it is when the average speciale listing (~6-700) is higher than the average 488 pista
I agree. 430 scud must be nice too. 458 speciale price is little nuts. 1m+ must be SpA. Anyways, would you get a car now or wait a while?
I'd start looking now to see what's available but might wait a little while to see if prices continue to trend down, but that would just be to get a better deal, not looking for a better ROI. The potential future value of a car, exotic or not, is never a consideration for me personally. If you have the same viewpoint, like I said, I'd start looking now and wouldn't hesitate if you come across something that YOU feel is a good deal. If appreciation is something you're trying to capitalize on, I would recommend talking to people in the exotic sales world (like Doug Tabbutt [switchcars.com] or Ed Bolian) to see if they have any insight into how they see the market trending, as anything I would say would just be pure speculation.

Lots of cars for sale right now. Owners contacting me via PM to sell their cars. Very different atmosphere from 6 months ago where everyone and their cousins were selling cars on auction to get high number.
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by newyorker »

Update.

I am ashamed to admit it but I have been market timing for the fall in 2023. Lowered DCA to 10k a month and been saving up money in savings account. What should I do? Start DCA? Or keep waiting?
clip651
Posts: 1586
Joined: Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:02 am

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by clip651 »

newyorker wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:33 pm Update.

I am ashamed to admit it but I have been market timing for the fall in 2023.
Time travel? Or do you mean 2022? :D
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by newyorker »

clip651 wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:34 pm
newyorker wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:33 pm Update.

I am ashamed to admit it but I have been market timing for the fall in 2023.
Time travel? Or do you mean 2022? :D
Prediction. Everyone is saying that it will drop in 2023. But if everyone predicts, it may not happen.
Keenobserver
Posts: 1043
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 1:05 pm

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by Keenobserver »

I would put maybe 90% into a nicely diversified index fund and forget it exists. Keep 10% for fun if you must. Sound simple enough?
Ed 2
Posts: 2692
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:34 am

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by Ed 2 »

newyorker wrote: Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:51 pm
retire2022 wrote: Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:48 pm
newyorker wrote: Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:38 pm
Real estate will be out of state with property manager...
My plan is to get 5M then retire.
Did you buy on this most recent dip?

Yes. Same DCA ive been doing. But who knows dip might not be over 🥲
By this unhappy emoji you need to start reading books , Morgan Housel comes to mind. You have to be happy when market goes on sale , not all the way around. If I had 400k doing nothing I would plunge into two funds VXUS and VTI 50/50 on Monday!
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 21282
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by HomerJ »

Meh, even a money-market fund is making 3% now... so it's not that horrible.

But yeah, market-timing for the fall of 2023 is just flipping a coin.

No one knows when the market will crash or recover.

And you know this.

"everyone is saying" is silly.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
User avatar
MillennialFinance19
Posts: 586
Joined: Sat Feb 09, 2019 10:06 am

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by MillennialFinance19 »

newyorker wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:33 pm Update.

I am ashamed to admit it but I have been market timing for the fall in 2023. Lowered DCA to 10k a month and been saving up money in savings account. What should I do? Start DCA? Or keep waiting?
After reading through this entire thread, it’s apparent that you lack a plan. I would set clear goals and then write down the steps to get there. Don’t stray from the plan.
VTI and chill until 57...
wetgear
Posts: 859
Joined: Thu Apr 06, 2017 10:14 am

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by wetgear »

newyorker wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:33 pm Update.

I am ashamed to admit it but I have been market timing for the fall in 2023. Lowered DCA to 10k a month and been saving up money in savings account. What should I do? Start DCA? Or keep waiting?
You should provide all the details in the preferred format from the sticky: Asking Portfolio Questions.

You have a very long thread here but still haven’t provided sufficient information for good/complete advice.
clip651
Posts: 1586
Joined: Thu Oct 02, 2014 11:02 am

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by clip651 »

newyorker wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:39 pm
clip651 wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:34 pm
newyorker wrote: Sat Nov 19, 2022 5:33 pm Update.

I am ashamed to admit it but I have been market timing for the fall in 2023.
Time travel? Or do you mean 2022? :D
Prediction. Everyone is saying that it will drop in 2023. But if everyone predicts, it may not happen.
Ah, so you are pre-planning your market timing behavior for next fall. Sigh.

The market will go up, down, and/or sideways between now and fall of 2023. It will also do that in 2024, 2025, etc. The market will fluctuate. Hopefully over the long haul, it will go up (this is why we invest) but no guarantees. You should accept that, as well as accept that you can't accurately predict the future (other than by luck occasionally), and that the "everyone" that is saying they know what will happen can't accurately predict the market either.

Figure out your goals, risk tolerance, and desired asset allocation. Also figure out what money is for long term investing vs. for emergency fund or shorter term goals. Make a plan to get your investment money to your AA in a reasonable time frame. Make a simple plan to maintain your AA (e.g. directing new contributions to whatever is lagging, occasional rebalancing, etc). And then stop worrying about it, just execute the plan. Automate what you can. Turn off the news/get off the online news sites and financial blog, and go live your life.

Post a full "asking porfolio questions" thread if you truly want help with your overall portfolio. This thread is basically a giant "I know I shouldn't try to time the market, but I'm gonna try to time the market, and here is what I'm thinking this week..." thread. If you want to continue to market time, of course you can do that. But market timing is not recommended for lots of good reasons, many of which have been discussed in previous posts in this very thread.

Good luck.

cj
FellsGuy
Posts: 493
Joined: Thu Dec 23, 2021 12:30 pm

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by FellsGuy »

Option three you are into cars treat yourself, and just because so many people will tell you not to...haha
“Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six , result happiness. | Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery”
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by newyorker »

FellsGuy wrote: Sun Nov 20, 2022 4:17 pm Option three you are into cars treat yourself, and just because so many people will tell you not to...haha
Thats what I am debating too. Exotics are coming down in price but there is a cool car I really want. Wonder if I should bite the bullet for possible loss of 30-50k.
er999
Posts: 1344
Joined: Wed Nov 05, 2008 10:00 am

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by er999 »

newyorker wrote: Sat Nov 26, 2022 5:05 pm
FellsGuy wrote: Sun Nov 20, 2022 4:17 pm Option three you are into cars treat yourself, and just because so many people will tell you not to...haha
Thats what I am debating too. Exotics are coming down in price but there is a cool car I really want. Wonder if I should bite the bullet for possible loss of 30-50k.
You could try low ball offers over the next few months. Maybe the owner of one of the exotics you want lost a bunch of money in the crypto collapse and will take it.
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by newyorker »

er999 wrote: Sat Nov 26, 2022 5:31 pm
newyorker wrote: Sat Nov 26, 2022 5:05 pm
FellsGuy wrote: Sun Nov 20, 2022 4:17 pm Option three you are into cars treat yourself, and just because so many people will tell you not to...haha
Thats what I am debating too. Exotics are coming down in price but there is a cool car I really want. Wonder if I should bite the bullet for possible loss of 30-50k.
You could try low ball offers over the next few months. Maybe the owner of one of the exotics you want lost a bunch of money in the crypto collapse and will take it.
Smart plan 😍...

Some of these exotics are pretty much tied to S&P index.
TexasBorn
Posts: 148
Joined: Fri Sep 14, 2018 7:52 pm

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by TexasBorn »

I’ve been low balling off and on for about 5-6 months now and can see people’s reactions are starting to entertain them.

We need to buy my son a car and have decided that March is the month. Just after the first of the year. Budgets are tight and we’re hopeful people will be more reasonable to sell at KBB values.

Cars are beginning to sit longer on dealer lots and their websites. Low mileage good builds are still going super fast, but everything else is sitting.

I’ve been looking at Porsche’s too possibly for myself and those are starting to sit too some now.
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by newyorker »

TexasBorn wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 7:54 am I’ve been low balling off and on for about 5-6 months now and can see people’s reactions are starting to entertain them.

We need to buy my son a car and have decided that March is the month. Just after the first of the year. Budgets are tight and we’re hopeful people will be more reasonable to sell at KBB values.

Cars are beginning to sit longer on dealer lots and their websites. Low mileage good builds are still going super fast, but everything else is sitting.

I’ve been looking at Porsche’s too possibly for myself and those are starting to sit too some now.
Ill lowball too and see what I can get. 992 gt3 cars are sitting on dealer lot for 3+ months not being sold. Their adm will come down for sure.
Topic Author
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?

Post by newyorker »

TexasBorn wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 7:54 am I’ve been low balling off and on for about 5-6 months now and can see people’s reactions are starting to entertain them.

We need to buy my son a car and have decided that March is the month. Just after the first of the year. Budgets are tight and we’re hopeful people will be more reasonable to sell at KBB values.

Cars are beginning to sit longer on dealer lots and their websites. Low mileage good builds are still going super fast, but everything else is sitting.

I’ve been looking at Porsche’s too possibly for myself and those are starting to sit too some now.
When you say lowball, by how much? Say that the car is listed for 300k, being sold at market price of 270k, you are saying 200k? Or more like 250k?
Post Reply