Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years
Depending on why you need the money, the best option might be go into hiding.
Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years
If you have $300k now and you need no less than $300k in 1.5 years, the only thing you can do with it is put it into high yield savings, CD, or money market. Something that cannot lose value.
If you have a little leeway, you could use a short term bond for part of it. And hope.
Or you can gamble and invest it. You might get lucky. You might not.
You cannot buy that much in I Bonds at one time. Only $10k a year per person.
If you have a little leeway, you could use a short term bond for part of it. And hope.
Or you can gamble and invest it. You might get lucky. You might not.
You cannot buy that much in I Bonds at one time. Only $10k a year per person.
Last edited by retiredjg on Tue Jun 28, 2022 5:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Link to Asking Portfolio Questions
Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years
Depends on what you mean by need. If it's something that you really must pay for in 1.5 years, the stock market is never the place to park your cash. Interest rates are going up, so HYSA is looking more and more attractive. You could also look at CDs.
Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years
Per your original post, I would add that for the most part, you can only purchase $10K of I-bonds per year. So that won't help you.
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Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years
I would do T-Bills.
Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years
Not Must! But do need DP for a house in 1.5 years or so
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Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years
Of course you're asking an impossible question. Go to Vegas and put everything on red.
Nobody knows nothing.
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Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years
What is the asset allocation of the "1 mil" taxable? Do you have significant losses that can be harvested now?
How much additional cash/savings can you accumulate over 1.5 years relative to your $300k target?
The way you phrased the original questions seems to me like you are asking how to invest new money. For new money invested on periodic basis over the next 1.5 years, how much upside do you really see in equities? Is the potential upside worth it relative to potential downside and tolerance to sell at a loss and/or postpone home purchase?
How much additional cash/savings can you accumulate over 1.5 years relative to your $300k target?
The way you phrased the original questions seems to me like you are asking how to invest new money. For new money invested on periodic basis over the next 1.5 years, how much upside do you really see in equities? Is the potential upside worth it relative to potential downside and tolerance to sell at a loss and/or postpone home purchase?
Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years
If you have the cash right now and need the exact amount in 18 months, put it into a money market fund or buy Treasurys expiring that month.
But, really, you should post a portfolio review thread to get your asset allocation settled once and for all. You posted a question about what to do with $400k two months ago.
But, really, you should post a portfolio review thread to get your asset allocation settled once and for all. You posted a question about what to do with $400k two months ago.
Last edited by drk on Tue Jun 28, 2022 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
newyorker - In order to provide appropriate advice, it's best to keep all the information in one spot. I merged your update back into the original thread. If you have any questions, ask them here.
(Thanks to the member who reported the post and provided a link to this thread.)
(Thanks to the member who reported the post and provided a link to this thread.)
Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years
Is that right? That would be news to me.
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
Some each of 1, 3, 4 to your liking.
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
Did you end up buying a cool car yet?
Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years
Short-term money should not be in the stock market. I don't think anyone has EVER said anything different here.
$300k in 1.5 years should be in savings account or the equivalent.
I'm pretty sure you know this.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years
I need to start saving up; my original plan was to sell equities as necessary, but it appears better to just hold more cash
Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:48 pmI need to start saving up; my original plan was to sell equities as necessary, but it appears better to just hold more cash
Ugh market may drop further
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Re: Need 300k worth of cash in 1.5 years
Market may drop further is always possible - even if/when it's already dropped a bunch. And recovery might be slow, or bumpy, or there might not be a recovery in the timeline that makes sense to you, and it might stay flat or keep declining or ...newyorker wrote: ↑Thu Jun 30, 2022 6:18 pmMarseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 29, 2022 10:48 pmI need to start saving up; my original plan was to sell equities as necessary, but it appears better to just hold more cash
Ugh market may drop further
That's why short term money shouldn't be in the stock market. You may wish this weren't true (wishing the "stonks only go up" meme/joke that had been floating around the past few years when we had such great returns was actually true), but it's still true. Market may drop further. Yep.
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
Update guys
1) Bought an investment property
2) Currently have 1.1M in Taxable
3) Cash of 250k
Was thinking of buying an exotic car but is it a wise move at this point? Seems like an exotic car market is dropping in value too. Is now the best time or wait few months?
1) Bought an investment property
2) Currently have 1.1M in Taxable
3) Cash of 250k
Was thinking of buying an exotic car but is it a wise move at this point? Seems like an exotic car market is dropping in value too. Is now the best time or wait few months?
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
By your username I assume you live in New York so you may be coming to the end of good weather for driving in the next 1-2 months so may not much driving time until Spring if you buy now. If there’s a recession next year that would of course be a better time to buy toy cars as prices may decline.newyorker wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:14 pm Update guys
1) Bought an investment property
2) Currently have 1.1M in Taxable
3) Cash of 250k
Was thinking of buying an exotic car but is it a wise move at this point? Seems like an exotic car market is dropping in value too. Is now the best time or wait few months?
But you’ve been interested for awhile in buying an exotic car, at least since January 7 months ago, so if you really want one maybe start shopping and buy one now even if it isn’t the absolutely best price. I’d be very picky on the color and look nationwide and have fun with a road trip bringing it home. Also enjoy shopping and the research process.
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
er999 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:54 pmBy your username I assume you live in New York so you may be coming to the end of good weather for driving in the next 1-2 months so may not much driving time until Spring if you buy now. If there’s a recession next year that would of course be a better time to buy toy cars as prices may decline.newyorker wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 3:14 pm Update guys
1) Bought an investment property
2) Currently have 1.1M in Taxable
3) Cash of 250k
Was thinking of buying an exotic car but is it a wise move at this point? Seems like an exotic car market is dropping in value too. Is now the best time or wait few months?
But you’ve been interested for awhile in buying an exotic car, at least since January 7 months ago, so if you really want one maybe start shopping and buy one now even if it isn’t the absolutely best price. I’d be very picky on the color and look nationwide and have fun with a road trip bringing it home. Also enjoy shopping and the research process.
I moved out of nyc few years ago. Currently in MCOL and loving it. I think exotic car prices peaked in March/April and slowly coming down now.
Assuming you end up getting the car at some point, my input as a fellow petrolhead: if you plan to track the car a lot (every month or more), go with the GT3 RS. If you don't plan to track or only track occasionally, go with the Ferrari. 430 if you can find a scud, otherwise base 458 or 458 spider. As great as the speciale is, it's not as "daily" drivable and it's currently getting the Carrera experience. I've seen some listings now over $1M... Says something about how loved it is when the average speciale listing (~6-700) is higher than the average 488 pista
Re:
I agree. 430 scud must be nice too. 458 speciale price is little nuts. 1m+ must be SpA. Anyways, would you get a car now or wait a while?Itogliano wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:17 pmAssuming you end up getting the car at some point, my input as a fellow petrolhead: if you plan to track the car a lot (every month or more), go with the GT3 RS. If you don't plan to track or only track occasionally, go with the Ferrari. 430 if you can find a scud, otherwise base 458 or 458 spider. As great as the speciale is, it's not as "daily" drivable and it's currently getting the Carrera experience. I've seen some listings now over $1M... Says something about how loved it is when the average speciale listing (~6-700) is higher than the average 488 pista
Re: Re:
I'd start looking now to see what's available but might wait a little while to see if prices continue to trend down, but that would just be to get a better deal, not looking for a better ROI. The potential future value of a car, exotic or not, is never a consideration for me personally. If you have the same viewpoint, like I said, I'd start looking now and wouldn't hesitate if you come across something that YOU feel is a good deal. If appreciation is something you're trying to capitalize on, I would recommend talking to people in the exotic sales world (like Doug Tabbutt [switchcars.com] or Ed Bolian) to see if they have any insight into how they see the market trending, as anything I would say would just be pure speculation.newyorker wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:37 pmI agree. 430 scud must be nice too. 458 speciale price is little nuts. 1m+ must be SpA. Anyways, would you get a car now or wait a while?Itogliano wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:17 pmAssuming you end up getting the car at some point, my input as a fellow petrolhead: if you plan to track the car a lot (every month or more), go with the GT3 RS. If you don't plan to track or only track occasionally, go with the Ferrari. 430 if you can find a scud, otherwise base 458 or 458 spider. As great as the speciale is, it's not as "daily" drivable and it's currently getting the Carrera experience. I've seen some listings now over $1M... Says something about how loved it is when the average speciale listing (~6-700) is higher than the average 488 pista
Re: Re:
Sent you a pm!Itogliano wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:00 pmI'd start looking now to see what's available but might wait a little while to see if prices continue to trend down, but that would just be to get a better deal, not looking for a better ROI. The potential future value of a car, exotic or not, is never a consideration for me personally. If you have the same viewpoint, like I said, I'd start looking now and wouldn't hesitate if you come across something that YOU feel is a good deal. If appreciation is something you're trying to capitalize on, I would recommend talking to people in the exotic sales world (like Doug Tabbutt [switchcars.com] or Ed Bolian) to see if they have any insight into how they see the market trending, as anything I would say would just be pure speculation.newyorker wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:37 pmI agree. 430 scud must be nice too. 458 speciale price is little nuts. 1m+ must be SpA. Anyways, would you get a car now or wait a while?Itogliano wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:17 pmAssuming you end up getting the car at some point, my input as a fellow petrolhead: if you plan to track the car a lot (every month or more), go with the GT3 RS. If you don't plan to track or only track occasionally, go with the Ferrari. 430 if you can find a scud, otherwise base 458 or 458 spider. As great as the speciale is, it's not as "daily" drivable and it's currently getting the Carrera experience. I've seen some listings now over $1M... Says something about how loved it is when the average speciale listing (~6-700) is higher than the average 488 pista
Re: Re:
Itogliano wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 5:00 pmI'd start looking now to see what's available but might wait a little while to see if prices continue to trend down, but that would just be to get a better deal, not looking for a better ROI. The potential future value of a car, exotic or not, is never a consideration for me personally. If you have the same viewpoint, like I said, I'd start looking now and wouldn't hesitate if you come across something that YOU feel is a good deal. If appreciation is something you're trying to capitalize on, I would recommend talking to people in the exotic sales world (like Doug Tabbutt [switchcars.com] or Ed Bolian) to see if they have any insight into how they see the market trending, as anything I would say would just be pure speculation.newyorker wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:37 pmI agree. 430 scud must be nice too. 458 speciale price is little nuts. 1m+ must be SpA. Anyways, would you get a car now or wait a while?Itogliano wrote: ↑Thu Aug 18, 2022 4:17 pmAssuming you end up getting the car at some point, my input as a fellow petrolhead: if you plan to track the car a lot (every month or more), go with the GT3 RS. If you don't plan to track or only track occasionally, go with the Ferrari. 430 if you can find a scud, otherwise base 458 or 458 spider. As great as the speciale is, it's not as "daily" drivable and it's currently getting the Carrera experience. I've seen some listings now over $1M... Says something about how loved it is when the average speciale listing (~6-700) is higher than the average 488 pista
Lots of cars for sale right now. Owners contacting me via PM to sell their cars. Very different atmosphere from 6 months ago where everyone and their cousins were selling cars on auction to get high number.
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
Update.
I am ashamed to admit it but I have been market timing for the fall in 2023. Lowered DCA to 10k a month and been saving up money in savings account. What should I do? Start DCA? Or keep waiting?
I am ashamed to admit it but I have been market timing for the fall in 2023. Lowered DCA to 10k a month and been saving up money in savings account. What should I do? Start DCA? Or keep waiting?
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
Prediction. Everyone is saying that it will drop in 2023. But if everyone predicts, it may not happen.
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Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
I would put maybe 90% into a nicely diversified index fund and forget it exists. Keep 10% for fun if you must. Sound simple enough?
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
By this unhappy emoji you need to start reading books , Morgan Housel comes to mind. You have to be happy when market goes on sale , not all the way around. If I had 400k doing nothing I would plunge into two funds VXUS and VTI 50/50 on Monday!newyorker wrote: ↑Fri Jan 28, 2022 8:51 pm
Yes. Same DCA ive been doing. But who knows dip might not be over
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
Meh, even a money-market fund is making 3% now... so it's not that horrible.
But yeah, market-timing for the fall of 2023 is just flipping a coin.
No one knows when the market will crash or recover.
And you know this.
"everyone is saying" is silly.
But yeah, market-timing for the fall of 2023 is just flipping a coin.
No one knows when the market will crash or recover.
And you know this.
"everyone is saying" is silly.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
After reading through this entire thread, it’s apparent that you lack a plan. I would set clear goals and then write down the steps to get there. Don’t stray from the plan.
VTI and chill until 57...
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
You should provide all the details in the preferred format from the sticky: Asking Portfolio Questions.
You have a very long thread here but still haven’t provided sufficient information for good/complete advice.
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
Ah, so you are pre-planning your market timing behavior for next fall. Sigh.
The market will go up, down, and/or sideways between now and fall of 2023. It will also do that in 2024, 2025, etc. The market will fluctuate. Hopefully over the long haul, it will go up (this is why we invest) but no guarantees. You should accept that, as well as accept that you can't accurately predict the future (other than by luck occasionally), and that the "everyone" that is saying they know what will happen can't accurately predict the market either.
Figure out your goals, risk tolerance, and desired asset allocation. Also figure out what money is for long term investing vs. for emergency fund or shorter term goals. Make a plan to get your investment money to your AA in a reasonable time frame. Make a simple plan to maintain your AA (e.g. directing new contributions to whatever is lagging, occasional rebalancing, etc). And then stop worrying about it, just execute the plan. Automate what you can. Turn off the news/get off the online news sites and financial blog, and go live your life.
Post a full "asking porfolio questions" thread if you truly want help with your overall portfolio. This thread is basically a giant "I know I shouldn't try to time the market, but I'm gonna try to time the market, and here is what I'm thinking this week..." thread. If you want to continue to market time, of course you can do that. But market timing is not recommended for lots of good reasons, many of which have been discussed in previous posts in this very thread.
Good luck.
cj
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
Option three you are into cars treat yourself, and just because so many people will tell you not to...haha
“Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six , result happiness. |
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery”
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
Thats what I am debating too. Exotics are coming down in price but there is a cool car I really want. Wonder if I should bite the bullet for possible loss of 30-50k.
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
You could try low ball offers over the next few months. Maybe the owner of one of the exotics you want lost a bunch of money in the crypto collapse and will take it.
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
Smart plan ...er999 wrote: ↑Sat Nov 26, 2022 5:31 pmYou could try low ball offers over the next few months. Maybe the owner of one of the exotics you want lost a bunch of money in the crypto collapse and will take it.
Some of these exotics are pretty much tied to S&P index.
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
I’ve been low balling off and on for about 5-6 months now and can see people’s reactions are starting to entertain them.
We need to buy my son a car and have decided that March is the month. Just after the first of the year. Budgets are tight and we’re hopeful people will be more reasonable to sell at KBB values.
Cars are beginning to sit longer on dealer lots and their websites. Low mileage good builds are still going super fast, but everything else is sitting.
I’ve been looking at Porsche’s too possibly for myself and those are starting to sit too some now.
We need to buy my son a car and have decided that March is the month. Just after the first of the year. Budgets are tight and we’re hopeful people will be more reasonable to sell at KBB values.
Cars are beginning to sit longer on dealer lots and their websites. Low mileage good builds are still going super fast, but everything else is sitting.
I’ve been looking at Porsche’s too possibly for myself and those are starting to sit too some now.
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
Ill lowball too and see what I can get. 992 gt3 cars are sitting on dealer lot for 3+ months not being sold. Their adm will come down for sure.TexasBorn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 27, 2022 7:54 am I’ve been low balling off and on for about 5-6 months now and can see people’s reactions are starting to entertain them.
We need to buy my son a car and have decided that March is the month. Just after the first of the year. Budgets are tight and we’re hopeful people will be more reasonable to sell at KBB values.
Cars are beginning to sit longer on dealer lots and their websites. Low mileage good builds are still going super fast, but everything else is sitting.
I’ve been looking at Porsche’s too possibly for myself and those are starting to sit too some now.
Re: Dry powder of 400k incoming. What can I do?
When you say lowball, by how much? Say that the car is listed for 300k, being sold at market price of 270k, you are saying 200k? Or more like 250k?TexasBorn wrote: ↑Sun Nov 27, 2022 7:54 am I’ve been low balling off and on for about 5-6 months now and can see people’s reactions are starting to entertain them.
We need to buy my son a car and have decided that March is the month. Just after the first of the year. Budgets are tight and we’re hopeful people will be more reasonable to sell at KBB values.
Cars are beginning to sit longer on dealer lots and their websites. Low mileage good builds are still going super fast, but everything else is sitting.
I’ve been looking at Porsche’s too possibly for myself and those are starting to sit too some now.