TSLA: What Changed?

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Nathan Drake
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Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2011 12:28 am

Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

Semantics wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:13 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:19 pm They are priced to own 50% of the car market in the world right now. If they don't pick up the low-end car market or the pickup truck market, they lose.

Tesla is worth $1 trillion.

Toyota is worth $231 billion
BYD (China) is worth $100 billion
Volkswagon is worth $100 billion
Mercedes-Benz is worth $73 billion
Ford is worth $62 billion
General Motors is worth $58 billion
BMW is worth $53 billion
Honda is worth $44 billion.

I'm still not to $1 trillion. I could keep going. Tesla is currently priced at more than the other top 17 car companies COMBINED.

They have to be the best at all categories to justify that price. Losing on trucks will indeed hurt them long-term.

It's really insane, the pricing.
No, they're priced to own 50% of the future PROFITS in the car market (assuming no other businesses like insurance). Not to beat a dead horse, but they are vastly more efficient than anyone else at manufacturing and selling cars.
How are they more efficient than Toyota?
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Normchad
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Normchad »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:06 pm
Semantics wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:13 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:19 pm They are priced to own 50% of the car market in the world right now. If they don't pick up the low-end car market or the pickup truck market, they lose.

Tesla is worth $1 trillion.

Toyota is worth $231 billion
BYD (China) is worth $100 billion
Volkswagon is worth $100 billion
Mercedes-Benz is worth $73 billion
Ford is worth $62 billion
General Motors is worth $58 billion
BMW is worth $53 billion
Honda is worth $44 billion.

I'm still not to $1 trillion. I could keep going. Tesla is currently priced at more than the other top 17 car companies COMBINED.

They have to be the best at all categories to justify that price. Losing on trucks will indeed hurt them long-term.

It's really insane, the pricing.
No, they're priced to own 50% of the future PROFITS in the car market (assuming no other businesses like insurance). Not to beat a dead horse, but they are vastly more efficient than anyone else at manufacturing and selling cars.
How are they more efficient than Toyota?
They only need ten labor hours to assemble a car. They don’t spend any money on advertising. They don’t have a dealer network to pay.

Also, the cars themselves are more efficient. The 70KWh battery in a Tesla has a 300 mile range, everybody else is around 225. So for equivalent range, Tesla spends less on the battery.

They have that 30 or 32% margin. Additionally, they get $10/month subscription from most owners. And eventually, I will subscribe to FSD for another $200/month.

They are good at making money.
Nathan Drake
Posts: 6237
Joined: Mon Apr 11, 2011 12:28 am

Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

Normchad wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:45 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:06 pm
Semantics wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:13 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:19 pm They are priced to own 50% of the car market in the world right now. If they don't pick up the low-end car market or the pickup truck market, they lose.

Tesla is worth $1 trillion.

Toyota is worth $231 billion
BYD (China) is worth $100 billion
Volkswagon is worth $100 billion
Mercedes-Benz is worth $73 billion
Ford is worth $62 billion
General Motors is worth $58 billion
BMW is worth $53 billion
Honda is worth $44 billion.

I'm still not to $1 trillion. I could keep going. Tesla is currently priced at more than the other top 17 car companies COMBINED.

They have to be the best at all categories to justify that price. Losing on trucks will indeed hurt them long-term.

It's really insane, the pricing.
No, they're priced to own 50% of the future PROFITS in the car market (assuming no other businesses like insurance). Not to beat a dead horse, but they are vastly more efficient than anyone else at manufacturing and selling cars.
How are they more efficient than Toyota?
They only need ten labor hours to assemble a car. They don’t spend any money on advertising. They don’t have a dealer network to pay.

Also, the cars themselves are more efficient. The 70KWh battery in a Tesla has a 300 mile range, everybody else is around 225. So for equivalent range, Tesla spends less on the battery.

They have that 30 or 32% margin. Additionally, they get $10/month subscription from most owners. And eventually, I will subscribe to FSD for another $200/month.

They are good at making money.
If they are so efficient why are they far more expensive than many ICE equivalents?

Great that they are highly profitable now, but I don’t see why any of what TSLA is doing is somehow unachievable for similar costs and scale elsewhere

Once that happens, there’s no reason to believe they’ll maintain such margins
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Normchad
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Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2011 6:20 am

Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Normchad »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:49 pm
Normchad wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:45 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:06 pm
Semantics wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:13 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:19 pm They are priced to own 50% of the car market in the world right now. If they don't pick up the low-end car market or the pickup truck market, they lose.

Tesla is worth $1 trillion.

Toyota is worth $231 billion
BYD (China) is worth $100 billion
Volkswagon is worth $100 billion
Mercedes-Benz is worth $73 billion
Ford is worth $62 billion
General Motors is worth $58 billion
BMW is worth $53 billion
Honda is worth $44 billion.

I'm still not to $1 trillion. I could keep going. Tesla is currently priced at more than the other top 17 car companies COMBINED.

They have to be the best at all categories to justify that price. Losing on trucks will indeed hurt them long-term.

It's really insane, the pricing.
No, they're priced to own 50% of the future PROFITS in the car market (assuming no other businesses like insurance). Not to beat a dead horse, but they are vastly more efficient than anyone else at manufacturing and selling cars.
How are they more efficient than Toyota?
They only need ten labor hours to assemble a car. They don’t spend any money on advertising. They don’t have a dealer network to pay.

Also, the cars themselves are more efficient. The 70KWh battery in a Tesla has a 300 mile range, everybody else is around 225. So for equivalent range, Tesla spends less on the battery.

They have that 30 or 32% margin. Additionally, they get $10/month subscription from most owners. And eventually, I will subscribe to FSD for another $200/month.

They are good at making money.
If they are so efficient why are they far more expensive than many ICE equivalents?

Great that they are highly profitable now, but I don’t see why any of what TSLA is doing is somehow unachievable for similar costs and scale elsewhere

Once that happens, there’s no reason to believe they’ll maintain such margins
Why would they lower their prices when customers are waiting in line to buy every single thing they make? And I don’t actually know if anybody else even makes money on EVs yet.

I’m not saying they will take over the world. I was just listing some of the very significant ways I which they are more efficient. And some of those might be an enduring advantage.

When the big 3 went through bankruptcy (or came close in the GFC) they fought tooth and nail to close down their dealerships; specifically citing them as a huge financial hindrance. They basically lost on that. And they also carp heavily about unionized labor and legacy costs. And they will have those forever as well.

But they also have lots of factories now, and lots of workers. And I think it’s gonna be really hard for them to switch over to EVs. I hope they do. I hope they are successful, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
Nathan Drake
Posts: 6237
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

Normchad wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:00 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:49 pm
Normchad wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:45 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:06 pm
Semantics wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:13 pm

No, they're priced to own 50% of the future PROFITS in the car market (assuming no other businesses like insurance). Not to beat a dead horse, but they are vastly more efficient than anyone else at manufacturing and selling cars.
How are they more efficient than Toyota?
They only need ten labor hours to assemble a car. They don’t spend any money on advertising. They don’t have a dealer network to pay.

Also, the cars themselves are more efficient. The 70KWh battery in a Tesla has a 300 mile range, everybody else is around 225. So for equivalent range, Tesla spends less on the battery.

They have that 30 or 32% margin. Additionally, they get $10/month subscription from most owners. And eventually, I will subscribe to FSD for another $200/month.

They are good at making money.
If they are so efficient why are they far more expensive than many ICE equivalents?

Great that they are highly profitable now, but I don’t see why any of what TSLA is doing is somehow unachievable for similar costs and scale elsewhere

Once that happens, there’s no reason to believe they’ll maintain such margins
Why would they lower their prices when customers are waiting in line to buy every single thing they make? And I don’t actually know if anybody else even makes money on EVs yet.

I’m not saying they will take over the world. I was just listing some of the very significant ways I which they are more efficient. And some of those might be an enduring advantage.

When the big 3 went through bankruptcy (or came close in the GFC) they fought tooth and nail to close down their dealerships; specifically citing them as a huge financial hindrance. They basically lost on that. And they also carp heavily about unionized labor and legacy costs. And they will have those forever as well.

But they also have lots of factories now, and lots of workers. And I think it’s gonna be really hard for them to switch over to EVs. I hope they do. I hope they are successful, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
In the short term, there’s no reason to drop prices, but long term the market will get a lot more competitive

Toyota and others are incredibly efficient at making vehicles. They are behind the curve, but 5-10 years from now I have no reason to believe they’re incapable of marching or exceeding Tesla’s manufacturing abilities at making EVs
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Normchad
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Normchad »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:06 pm
Normchad wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:00 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:49 pm
Normchad wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:45 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:06 pm

How are they more efficient than Toyota?
They only need ten labor hours to assemble a car. They don’t spend any money on advertising. They don’t have a dealer network to pay.

Also, the cars themselves are more efficient. The 70KWh battery in a Tesla has a 300 mile range, everybody else is around 225. So for equivalent range, Tesla spends less on the battery.

They have that 30 or 32% margin. Additionally, they get $10/month subscription from most owners. And eventually, I will subscribe to FSD for another $200/month.

They are good at making money.
If they are so efficient why are they far more expensive than many ICE equivalents?

Great that they are highly profitable now, but I don’t see why any of what TSLA is doing is somehow unachievable for similar costs and scale elsewhere

Once that happens, there’s no reason to believe they’ll maintain such margins
Why would they lower their prices when customers are waiting in line to buy every single thing they make? And I don’t actually know if anybody else even makes money on EVs yet.

I’m not saying they will take over the world. I was just listing some of the very significant ways I which they are more efficient. And some of those might be an enduring advantage.

When the big 3 went through bankruptcy (or came close in the GFC) they fought tooth and nail to close down their dealerships; specifically citing them as a huge financial hindrance. They basically lost on that. And they also carp heavily about unionized labor and legacy costs. And they will have those forever as well.

But they also have lots of factories now, and lots of workers. And I think it’s gonna be really hard for them to switch over to EVs. I hope they do. I hope they are successful, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
In the short term, there’s no reason to drop prices, but long term the market will get a lot more competitive

Toyota and others are incredibly efficient at making vehicles. They are behind the curve, but 5-10 years from now I have no reason to believe they’re incapable of marching or exceeding Tesla’s manufacturing abilities at making EVs
That’s totally fair. Time will tell. I hope there is real competition for them five years from now, but we shall see.

That’s why these threads get so long. We don’t actually know how the future will unfold. I won’t be surprised if Tesla only ever sells 2M cars per year, but is very profitable. Then again, I won’t be surprised if Musk just quits tomorrow and it all falls apart. I don’t think they will ever control more than 20% of the global car market. But what do I know? I’m a smooth brained dummy.

As of 2021, the Fremont Tesla factory was the most productive (made the most vehicles per week) in North America. More productive than the Toyota Georgetown plant, despite being about half the size.
4nursebee
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

On Toyota and competition coming:
1. SSDD, for years now.
2. How will Toyota and others finance these changes and needed investments over the next 5-10 years while cannibilizing existing product lines?
3. The bigger issue is OEMs are likely trying to get to where TSLA is now, whereas TSLA is aiming for where they will be in 5-10 years. They will still be ahead.

I think F will really only exist as a diesel truck company, subject to dwindling if Tesla heavy mover vehicles have success.
Clayton Christianson's book The Innovator's Dilemna offers ideas on what the futures could be.
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Nysoz
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

Toyota and others are incredibly efficient at making vehicles compared to old metrics and standards. Tesla is raising those standards and rewriting the way to make cars efficiently and profitably.

I've made the argument earlier in the thread but it's just a different business model for making a similar product. Then Tesla isn't afraid to make changes to their company or product or factory. They learn from production and any challenges then strive to improve on a daily basis. A former Tesla engineer talked about some part or process another employee was working on and they jumped in to help. Others came and went to provide input. Ultimately they solved the problem, internally tested it, and made it to the assembly line in a day. Any other OEM would probably take months to years to make that change.

Also OEMs work and company culture are much different. At Tesla, any employee can talk to any other employee directly, including Elon, and suggest improvements. If someone working on the line thinks that bolting the battery into the car 16 times is a waste and can be done with 8, they'll test that idea. If it's right, they'll improve that step saving those 8 bolts and the minute of manufacturing process.

Can Toyota and others do the same things as Tesla? Sure, but it'll be incredibly hard since they're so entrenched in their current design, production, process, culture.
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firebirdparts
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by firebirdparts »

Not advertising is probably as big a factor as anything in their profitability compare to others. Car advertising has been a surprisingly enormous chunk of the enterprise for as long as I can remember. Dealer costs are certainly a factor as well, but the emotional damage of dealers is much more critical to the business.
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stoptothink
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by stoptothink »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:49 pm
Normchad wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:45 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:06 pm
Semantics wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:13 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:19 pm They are priced to own 50% of the car market in the world right now. If they don't pick up the low-end car market or the pickup truck market, they lose.

Tesla is worth $1 trillion.

Toyota is worth $231 billion
BYD (China) is worth $100 billion
Volkswagon is worth $100 billion
Mercedes-Benz is worth $73 billion
Ford is worth $62 billion
General Motors is worth $58 billion
BMW is worth $53 billion
Honda is worth $44 billion.

I'm still not to $1 trillion. I could keep going. Tesla is currently priced at more than the other top 17 car companies COMBINED.

They have to be the best at all categories to justify that price. Losing on trucks will indeed hurt them long-term.

It's really insane, the pricing.
No, they're priced to own 50% of the future PROFITS in the car market (assuming no other businesses like insurance). Not to beat a dead horse, but they are vastly more efficient than anyone else at manufacturing and selling cars.
How are they more efficient than Toyota?
They only need ten labor hours to assemble a car. They don’t spend any money on advertising. They don’t have a dealer network to pay.

Also, the cars themselves are more efficient. The 70KWh battery in a Tesla has a 300 mile range, everybody else is around 225. So for equivalent range, Tesla spends less on the battery.

They have that 30 or 32% margin. Additionally, they get $10/month subscription from most owners. And eventually, I will subscribe to FSD for another $200/month.

They are good at making money.
If they are so efficient why are they far more expensive than many ICE equivalents?
:confused Because EVs are simply more (a lot more) expensive than ICE vehicles to produce. Teslas are not more expensive than comparable EVs from other manufacturers. Check out recent statements from Mercedes CEO about the cost of producing EVs; several automotive execs have recently come out saying an EV-dominated market isn't possible in the near future because it is cost-prohibitive.
CletusCaddy
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by CletusCaddy »

stoptothink wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 6:46 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:49 pm
Normchad wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:45 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:06 pm
Semantics wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:13 pm

No, they're priced to own 50% of the future PROFITS in the car market (assuming no other businesses like insurance). Not to beat a dead horse, but they are vastly more efficient than anyone else at manufacturing and selling cars.
How are they more efficient than Toyota?
They only need ten labor hours to assemble a car. They don’t spend any money on advertising. They don’t have a dealer network to pay.

Also, the cars themselves are more efficient. The 70KWh battery in a Tesla has a 300 mile range, everybody else is around 225. So for equivalent range, Tesla spends less on the battery.

They have that 30 or 32% margin. Additionally, they get $10/month subscription from most owners. And eventually, I will subscribe to FSD for another $200/month.

They are good at making money.
If they are so efficient why are they far more expensive than many ICE equivalents?
:confused Because EVs are simply more (a lot more) expensive than ICE vehicles to produce. Teslas are not more expensive than comparable EVs from other manufacturers. Check out recent statements from Mercedes CEO about the cost of producing EVs; several automotive execs have recently come out saying an EV-dominated market isn't possible in the near future because it is cost-prohibitive.
Is that why every major auto manufacturer has announced they will be selling only EVs by the 2030s?
harikaried
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

crystalbank wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:59 pmCompanies need cash only to meet short-term or intermediate expenses or make capital investments to increase their future profits. Anything excess, goes out as dividends (or buybacks etc). Not to mention, Tesla as recently as December 2020 raised cash by selling equities and they still have a lot of debt on their books.
Looks like Tesla decided to basically retire their debts with their cash. Here's their reported "Total debt excluding vehicle and energy product financing" by quarter:

Code: Select all

year:     Q1     Q2     Q3     Q4
2018:  $6.9B  $7.3B  $7.3B  $7.1B
2019:  $6.5B  $7.8B  $8.0B  $7.6B
2020:  $8.3B  $8.5B  $8.0B  $6.3B
2021:  $5.1B  $4.0B  $2.1B  $1.4B
2022:  $0.1B
I suppose like personal finance, those who can pay off their debts don't really need to take on more debt. Although I wonder if this will impact business credit ratings as I think even without buying the debt, others use the ratings as a filter for which companies to invest in. In particular, I believe Tesla is still rated as non-investment-grade / junk bond status.
GP813
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by GP813 »

Right now GM and Ford's most profitable vehicles are ICE trucks with a lot of accessories. To win the EV future they will have to erode or cannibalize that business and everything associated with it, all while their investors are patient enough or have the conviction they will win the future with EVs. How likely is that to happen?

Tesla is starting with a clean slate, their is no legacy business to untangle. I can also envision Tesla being like Apple, they have their cult followers with extreme brand loyalty because the cars are about the entire experience since Tesla makes the chips, app store, batteries, software, design, direct to consumer(no dealer network) and electric charging network so the whole experience integrates together. The legacy automakers are going to depends on someone like Nvidia or NXP Semi to make their chips, Google or Blackberry to make their software, the various battery makers to partner with them or make their batteries, dealerships who have a conflict of interest to sell EVs, third party charging networks who are in business for themselves, etc.

I remember this argument being used against Apple. Sure Apple had the head-start in smartphones but now Google is coming or Microsoft(lol), the Chinese brands are going to beat them etc but it never materialized. It never materialized because of the way Apple puts everything together so that even if you have a better spec'd Android phone it performs worse, and none of the phone-makers who compete against Apple make money all the ways that Apple does. You buy a Samsung phone and you use the Google Play store so Samsung is not making the same money Apple is. I see Tesla following a very similar blueprint to what Apple did with smartphones. They don't need to be the market share leader if they produce the car that actually makes more money and all the services and purchases you use associated with that car goes back to Tesla.
randomguy
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by randomguy »

Nysoz wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 6:36 am
Also OEMs work and company culture are much different. At Tesla, any employee can talk to any other employee directly, including Elon, and suggest improvements. If someone working on the line thinks that bolting the battery into the car 16 times is a waste and can be done with 8, they'll test that idea. If it's right, they'll improve that step saving those 8 bolts and the minute of manufacturing process.

Can Toyota and others do the same things as Tesla? Sure, but it'll be incredibly hard since they're so entrenched in their current design, production, process, culture.
Umm where do you think Tesla got this idea? The company name starts also starts with a T and ends with an A and has been publishing articles about it for the past 30 or so years.....:)

Apple versus android is sort of a good example. Apple definitely makes most of the profits. They are also a bit player with like 15% marketshare. Teslas getting 15% of the car market would be an incredible job. It would make them the #1 car maker in the world. It isn't remotely clear that will be enough for a 5T or so valuation which is what you are looking for it if you sink money into Tesla today...

EV's aren't really more expensive to make. EVs people want to buy are. RIght now you just can't make the 35k volume sellers. In 10 years, maybe.. So right now we have EVs well above average car price (like 45k these days) and not down at the median (it is rarely report but the times I have seen it it has been ~20-30% below the average). The 10-15k gap between a CUV at 35k and your EV at 50k is uncrossable for most people. Everyone expect battery costs to keep dropping and in the early 2030s to have a cross over where EVs and ICE will cost about the same..
Nathan Drake
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

GP813 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:50 am Right now GM and Ford's most profitable vehicles are ICE trucks with a lot of accessories. To win the EV future they will have to erode or cannibalize that business and everything associated with it, all while their investors are patient enough or have the conviction they will win the future with EVs. How likely is that to happen?

Tesla is starting with a clean slate, their is no legacy business to untangle. I can also envision Tesla being like Apple, they have their cult followers with extreme brand loyalty because the cars are about the entire experience since Tesla makes the chips, app store, batteries, software, design, direct to consumer(no dealer network) and electric charging network so the whole experience integrates together. The legacy automakers are going to depends on someone like Nvidia or NXP Semi to make their chips, Google or Blackberry to make their software, the various battery makers to partner with them or make their batteries, dealerships who have a conflict of interest to sell EVs, third party charging networks who are in business for themselves, etc.

I remember this argument being used against Apple. Sure Apple had the head-start in smartphones but now Google is coming or Microsoft(lol), the Chinese brands are going to beat them etc but it never materialized. It never materialized because of the way Apple puts everything together so that even if you have a better spec'd Android phone it performs worse, and none of the phone-makers who compete against Apple make money all the ways that Apple does. You buy a Samsung phone and you use the Google Play store so Samsung is not making the same money Apple is. I see Tesla following a very similar blueprint to what Apple did with smartphones. They don't need to be the market share leader if they produce the car that actually makes more money and all the services and purchases you use associated with that car goes back to Tesla.
Phones are different from cars

Ecosystem is important for phones, you use them all the time throughout the day and they essentially store your life

There is no sticky moat for cars.
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GP813
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by GP813 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 12:50 pm
GP813 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:50 am Right now GM and Ford's most profitable vehicles are ICE trucks with a lot of accessories. To win the EV future they will have to erode or cannibalize that business and everything associated with it, all while their investors are patient enough or have the conviction they will win the future with EVs. How likely is that to happen?

Tesla is starting with a clean slate, their is no legacy business to untangle. I can also envision Tesla being like Apple, they have their cult followers with extreme brand loyalty because the cars are about the entire experience since Tesla makes the chips, app store, batteries, software, design, direct to consumer(no dealer network) and electric charging network so the whole experience integrates together. The legacy automakers are going to depends on someone like Nvidia or NXP Semi to make their chips, Google or Blackberry to make their software, the various battery makers to partner with them or make their batteries, dealerships who have a conflict of interest to sell EVs, third party charging networks who are in business for themselves, etc.

I remember this argument being used against Apple. Sure Apple had the head-start in smartphones but now Google is coming or Microsoft(lol), the Chinese brands are going to beat them etc but it never materialized. It never materialized because of the way Apple puts everything together so that even if you have a better spec'd Android phone it performs worse, and none of the phone-makers who compete against Apple make money all the ways that Apple does. You buy a Samsung phone and you use the Google Play store so Samsung is not making the same money Apple is. I see Tesla following a very similar blueprint to what Apple did with smartphones. They don't need to be the market share leader if they produce the car that actually makes more money and all the services and purchases you use associated with that car goes back to Tesla.
Phones are different from cars

Ecosystem is important for phones, you use them all the time throughout the day and they essentially store your life

There is no sticky moat for cars.
There was no sticky moat for phones prior to 2007. Being stuck in a mind-frame of what cars are now tells us nothing about what they will be in 10 years. The technology in cars is rapidly changing in ways we haven't seen since the car replaced the horse.
Last edited by GP813 on Thu Apr 21, 2022 1:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Nathan Drake
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

GP813 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 12:53 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 12:50 pm
GP813 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:50 am Right now GM and Ford's most profitable vehicles are ICE trucks with a lot of accessories. To win the EV future they will have to erode or cannibalize that business and everything associated with it, all while their investors are patient enough or have the conviction they will win the future with EVs. How likely is that to happen?

Tesla is starting with a clean slate, their is no legacy business to untangle. I can also envision Tesla being like Apple, they have their cult followers with extreme brand loyalty because the cars are about the entire experience since Tesla makes the chips, app store, batteries, software, design, direct to consumer(no dealer network) and electric charging network so the whole experience integrates together. The legacy automakers are going to depends on someone like Nvidia or NXP Semi to make their chips, Google or Blackberry to make their software, the various battery makers to partner with them or make their batteries, dealerships who have a conflict of interest to sell EVs, third party charging networks who are in business for themselves, etc.

I remember this argument being used against Apple. Sure Apple had the head-start in smartphones but now Google is coming or Microsoft(lol), the Chinese brands are going to beat them etc but it never materialized. It never materialized because of the way Apple puts everything together so that even if you have a better spec'd Android phone it performs worse, and none of the phone-makers who compete against Apple make money all the ways that Apple does. You buy a Samsung phone and you use the Google Play store so Samsung is not making the same money Apple is. I see Tesla following a very similar blueprint to what Apple did with smartphones. They don't need to be the market share leader if they produce the car that actually makes more money and all the services and purchases you use associated with that car goes back to Tesla.
Phones are different from cars

Ecosystem is important for phones, you use them all the time throughout the day and they essentially store your life

There is no sticky moat for cars.
There was no sticky moat for phones prior to 2007. Being stuck in a mind-frame of what cars are now tells us nothing about what they will be in 10 years. The technology in cars is rapidly changing in ways we haven't seen since the car replaced the horse.
People spend very brief intervals in their cars, they are a much bigger cost and as such whatever status symbol benefit there is from owning a Tesla versus a competitor is much less compelling to the vast majority of non-early adopters

It’s point A to point B, unless Tesla FSD truly wins out I don’t see how they won’t see margin contraction and slowing growth with increased competition
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by GP813 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 12:59 pm
GP813 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 12:53 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 12:50 pm
GP813 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:50 am Right now GM and Ford's most profitable vehicles are ICE trucks with a lot of accessories. To win the EV future they will have to erode or cannibalize that business and everything associated with it, all while their investors are patient enough or have the conviction they will win the future with EVs. How likely is that to happen?

Tesla is starting with a clean slate, their is no legacy business to untangle. I can also envision Tesla being like Apple, they have their cult followers with extreme brand loyalty because the cars are about the entire experience since Tesla makes the chips, app store, batteries, software, design, direct to consumer(no dealer network) and electric charging network so the whole experience integrates together. The legacy automakers are going to depends on someone like Nvidia or NXP Semi to make their chips, Google or Blackberry to make their software, the various battery makers to partner with them or make their batteries, dealerships who have a conflict of interest to sell EVs, third party charging networks who are in business for themselves, etc.

I remember this argument being used against Apple. Sure Apple had the head-start in smartphones but now Google is coming or Microsoft(lol), the Chinese brands are going to beat them etc but it never materialized. It never materialized because of the way Apple puts everything together so that even if you have a better spec'd Android phone it performs worse, and none of the phone-makers who compete against Apple make money all the ways that Apple does. You buy a Samsung phone and you use the Google Play store so Samsung is not making the same money Apple is. I see Tesla following a very similar blueprint to what Apple did with smartphones. They don't need to be the market share leader if they produce the car that actually makes more money and all the services and purchases you use associated with that car goes back to Tesla.
Phones are different from cars

Ecosystem is important for phones, you use them all the time throughout the day and they essentially store your life

There is no sticky moat for cars.
There was no sticky moat for phones prior to 2007. Being stuck in a mind-frame of what cars are now tells us nothing about what they will be in 10 years. The technology in cars is rapidly changing in ways we haven't seen since the car replaced the horse.
People spend very brief intervals in their cars, they are a much bigger cost and as such whatever status symbol benefit there is from owning a Tesla versus a competitor is much less compelling to the vast majority of non-early adopters

It’s point A to point B, unless Tesla FSD truly wins out I don’t see how they won’t see margin contraction and slowing growth with increased competition
And those brief intervals are extremely lucrative, look at morning radio advertisement budgets or the pay of the top talk radio personalities. If the car reliably self-navigates that time will be freed up and possibly even more lucrative.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by t00sl0w »

Judging by the current state of FSD and the direction Elon keeps wanting to go with it, it will not win out. It is already overshadowed by other level 2s from other manufacturers and Honda/Mercedes beat Tesla to the table with level 3 in production. Mercedes has been certified internationally while Honda is currently choosing to keep it only in Japan.

Tesla is not going to win out compared to other OEMs once they get rolling. Their quality is trash, the charging network isnt a selling point anymore as other networks fill out beside it, FSD is a scam, etc.
They are charging luxury prices for non luxury cars and getting away with it ONLY because they were the first to really run with EV on a large scale. Once everyone else comes fully online, they'll be done unless they change and they stop letting Elon's hubris run the show.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by stoptothink »

CletusCaddy wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:06 am
stoptothink wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 6:46 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:49 pm
Normchad wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:45 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:06 pm

How are they more efficient than Toyota?
They only need ten labor hours to assemble a car. They don’t spend any money on advertising. They don’t have a dealer network to pay.

Also, the cars themselves are more efficient. The 70KWh battery in a Tesla has a 300 mile range, everybody else is around 225. So for equivalent range, Tesla spends less on the battery.

They have that 30 or 32% margin. Additionally, they get $10/month subscription from most owners. And eventually, I will subscribe to FSD for another $200/month.

They are good at making money.
If they are so efficient why are they far more expensive than many ICE equivalents?
:confused Because EVs are simply more (a lot more) expensive than ICE vehicles to produce. Teslas are not more expensive than comparable EVs from other manufacturers. Check out recent statements from Mercedes CEO about the cost of producing EVs; several automotive execs have recently come out saying an EV-dominated market isn't possible in the near future because it is cost-prohibitive.
Is that why every major auto manufacturer has announced they will be selling only EVs by the 2030s?
https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a3962 ... e-cheaper/
https://www.motorious.com/articles/news ... tric-cars/

Hyperbole much? Not every manufacturer is committed solely to EVs by 2030. If your statement comes to fruition, I'll be very happy that these executives were wrong. For now, manufacturers can make all the empty promises they want to (something Musk is a master at), it does not change the fact that EVs are simply a lot more expensive to produce.

I am very pro-EV, but for EVs to dominate the market (even by 2030) there has to be some major infrastructure change and technological breakthroughs regarding batteries, otherwise consumers will just have to accept that their vehicles will cost more.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by GP813 »

McKinsey & Company recently did a report about how data collection from cars is a potential multi-billion dollar industry. What company would be better at collecting your data and knowing how to monetize it, Tesla or GM? These are the kind of examples I am talking about with Tesla.

Unlocking the full life-cycle value from connected-car data
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by oragne lovre »

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 12:50 pm
GP813 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:50 am Right now GM and Ford's most profitable vehicles are ICE trucks with a lot of accessories. To win the EV future they will have to erode or cannibalize that business and everything associated with it, all while their investors are patient enough or have the conviction they will win the future with EVs. How likely is that to happen?

Tesla is starting with a clean slate, their is no legacy business to untangle. I can also envision Tesla being like Apple, they have their cult followers with extreme brand loyalty because the cars are about the entire experience since Tesla makes the chips, app store, batteries, software, design, direct to consumer(no dealer network) and electric charging network so the whole experience integrates together. The legacy automakers are going to depends on someone like Nvidia or NXP Semi to make their chips, Google or Blackberry to make their software, the various battery makers to partner with them or make their batteries, dealerships who have a conflict of interest to sell EVs, third party charging networks who are in business for themselves, etc.

I remember this argument being used against Apple. Sure Apple had the head-start in smartphones but now Google is coming or Microsoft(lol), the Chinese brands are going to beat them etc but it never materialized. It never materialized because of the way Apple puts everything together so that even if you have a better spec'd Android phone it performs worse, and none of the phone-makers who compete against Apple make money all the ways that Apple does. You buy a Samsung phone and you use the Google Play store so Samsung is not making the same money Apple is. I see Tesla following a very similar blueprint to what Apple did with smartphones. They don't need to be the market share leader if they produce the car that actually makes more money and all the services and purchases you use associated with that car goes back to Tesla.
Phones are different from cars

Ecosystem is important for phones, you use them all the time throughout the day and they essentially store your life

There is no sticky moat for cars.
I'm not sure if you a Tesla "car" owner or not. My personal experience with Tesla "cars" is quite not like what I've had with my old faithful Toyota Camry. My Tesla "cars" have become more like my personal "mobile dens". I can manage work when I'm in a Tesla without increasing the risks of distraction from commuting. I can relax myself in it with HD streaming music. I can watch movies in it when I have some downtime, waiting to pick up my children. I can enjoy my hobby, which is learning foreign languages, through available Tesla media. I can get cozy during cold evenings by turning on electronic "fireplace" to get warm while listening to favorite music tunes, etc. In other words, I can efficiently manage the time while in a Tesla. And of course, it can get me from point A to point B. All these experiences make me ask myself questions

"Is Tesla a car or a smart phone or a personal computer on 4 wheels?"

"Is Tesla really a car company?"

"Is Tesla ecosystem as the same as that of Apple or different from that of Apple?"
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

oragne lovre wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:05 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 12:50 pm
GP813 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:50 am Right now GM and Ford's most profitable vehicles are ICE trucks with a lot of accessories. To win the EV future they will have to erode or cannibalize that business and everything associated with it, all while their investors are patient enough or have the conviction they will win the future with EVs. How likely is that to happen?

Tesla is starting with a clean slate, their is no legacy business to untangle. I can also envision Tesla being like Apple, they have their cult followers with extreme brand loyalty because the cars are about the entire experience since Tesla makes the chips, app store, batteries, software, design, direct to consumer(no dealer network) and electric charging network so the whole experience integrates together. The legacy automakers are going to depends on someone like Nvidia or NXP Semi to make their chips, Google or Blackberry to make their software, the various battery makers to partner with them or make their batteries, dealerships who have a conflict of interest to sell EVs, third party charging networks who are in business for themselves, etc.

I remember this argument being used against Apple. Sure Apple had the head-start in smartphones but now Google is coming or Microsoft(lol), the Chinese brands are going to beat them etc but it never materialized. It never materialized because of the way Apple puts everything together so that even if you have a better spec'd Android phone it performs worse, and none of the phone-makers who compete against Apple make money all the ways that Apple does. You buy a Samsung phone and you use the Google Play store so Samsung is not making the same money Apple is. I see Tesla following a very similar blueprint to what Apple did with smartphones. They don't need to be the market share leader if they produce the car that actually makes more money and all the services and purchases you use associated with that car goes back to Tesla.
Phones are different from cars

Ecosystem is important for phones, you use them all the time throughout the day and they essentially store your life

There is no sticky moat for cars.
I'm not sure if you a Tesla "car" owner or not. My personal experience with Tesla "cars" is quite not like what I've had with my old faithful Toyota Camry. My Tesla "cars" have become more like my personal "mobile dens". I can manage work when I'm in a Tesla without increasing the risks of distraction from commuting. I can relax myself in it with HD streaming music. I can watch movies in it when I have some downtime, waiting to pick up my children. I can enjoy my hobby, which is learning foreign languages, through available Tesla media. I can get cozy during cold evenings by turning on electronic "fireplace" to get warm while listening to favorite music tunes, etc. In other words, I can efficiently manage the time while in a Tesla. And of course, it can get me from point A to point B. All these experiences make me ask myself questions

"Is Tesla a car or a smart phone or a personal computer on 4 wheels?"

"Is Tesla really a car company?"

"Is Tesla ecosystem as the same as that of Apple or different from that of Apple?"
I have driven multiple high tier models, Tesla’s are just a car to me. EVs are a nice smooth ride, but I didn’t come away thinking it was anything game changing in comparison to my boring sub $20k compact fuel efficient ICE vehicle with Apple car play hook ups.

Maybe my next car will be an EV, but only if it’s cheaper over the lifetime than equivalent compact ICE vehicles, and right now it’s nowhere close

I do feel there are a lot of people that own it as a status symbol or to virtue signal, and that doesn’t interest me at all
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Apathizer »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 12:24 am I do feel there are a lot of people that own it as a status symbol or to virtue signal, and that doesn’t interest me at all
Exactly. EV technology is still in it's infancy and we don't yet know which makes and models will prove most viable. Despite their popularity, Tesla has major reliability issues.

I don't own a car at all. I prefer to have minimal possessions and prefer to invest more instead :D
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by randomguy »

GP813 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 2:54 pm McKinsey & Company recently did a report about how data collection from cars is a potential multi-billion dollar industry. What company would be better at collecting your data and knowing how to monetize it, Tesla or GM? These are the kind of examples I am talking about with Tesla.

Unlocking the full life-cycle value from connected-car data
The problem is that multibillion dollar industry is almost noise when talking about TSLA valuation. Imagine you create a 100 billion dollar data collection bussiness. That would be incredible. A company like Citigroup or GE. It would justify a 10% stock price increase from todays value.....
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

EVs are much cheaper to own and operate than ICE. The problem is what people compare as equivalents. Some people compare the Tesla Model 3 to an entry level BMW 3 series and others a Toyota Corolla. There are cheaper options out there like the Nissan Leaf.

Then it's market and home charging dependent with local gas and electricity prices with how much someone drives. Personally I was able to go from $250 in gas to $20 in electricity a month (and this was in 2019 before current gas price increases and now would be closer to $400-450). Also factor in no oil changes and essentially no brake pad costs for the vast life of the vehicle and EVs win out easily at comparable initial starting purchase price. This doesn't consider all the other moving parts in an ICE system that can need repair/replacement.

Teslas don't have large widespread driving/mechanical reliability issues. The reports that say there's reliability issues are usually more for fit/finish and users that aren't used to the interface. Every car company and model will have isolated issues.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by JoMoney »

Nysoz wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 7:42 am EVs are much cheaper to own and operate than ICE. The problem is what people compare as equivalents. Some people compare the Tesla Model 3 to an entry level BMW 3 series and others a Toyota Corolla. There are cheaper options out there like the Nissan Leaf.

Then it's market and home charging dependent with local gas and electricity prices with how much someone drives. Personally I was able to go from $250 in gas to $20 in electricity a month (and this was in 2019 before current gas price increases and now would be closer to $400-450). Also factor in no oil changes and essentially no brake pad costs for the vast life of the vehicle and EVs win out easily at comparable initial starting purchase price. This doesn't consider all the other moving parts in an ICE system that can need repair/replacement.

Teslas don't have large widespread driving/mechanical reliability issues. The reports that say there's reliability issues are usually more for fit/finish and users that aren't used to the interface. Every car company and model will have isolated issues.
Starting MSRP on a Hyundai Elantra = $19,950
Starting MSRP on a Tesla = $46,990
(+$27,040 difference)

$250m x 12mo x 10yrs = $30,000
$20 x 12mo x 10yrs = $2,400
(-$27,600 difference)

FWIW, close enough to a draw in my book. The kicker is I have no convenient charging at my apartment complex nor at work.
I average 50 miles a day, average 33mpg, and at $5 gas still under $250/mo.
I enjoy not having to even think about "charging" all the time, I fill a little more than once a week with less than 5 minutes thought about it.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by SlowMovingInvestor »

t00sl0w wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 1:13 pm Judging by the current state of FSD and the direction Elon keeps wanting to go with it, it will not win out. It is already overshadowed by other level 2s from other manufacturers and Honda/Mercedes beat Tesla to the table with level 3 in production. Mercedes has been certified internationally while Honda is currently choosing to keep it only in Japan.
I'm not very familiar with Tesla's other tech, but I do know about autonomous cars. Tesla is well behind Waymo, Cruise/GM and others. And Waymo has an independent system that can be used with multiple car platforms.
Last edited by SlowMovingInvestor on Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by SlowMovingInvestor »

JoMoney wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:07 am Starting MSRP on a Hyundai Elantra = $19,950
Starting MSRP on a Tesla = $46,990
(+$27,040 difference)

$250m x 12mo x 10yrs = $30,000
$20 x 12mo x 10yrs = $2,400
(-$27,600 difference)

FWIW, close enough to a draw in my book.
I'm a drive the car into the ground kind of person, but I think it would be hard to keep any EV 10 years. I suspect technology is changing too fast, and I don't think updates are going to be as simple as software updates or even chip updates.

Even more so for autonomous cars as sensors become better.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by JoMoney »

SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:15 am
JoMoney wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:07 am Starting MSRP on a Hyundai Elantra = $19,950
Starting MSRP on a Tesla = $46,990
(+$27,040 difference)

$250m x 12mo x 10yrs = $30,000
$20 x 12mo x 10yrs = $2,400
(-$27,600 difference)

FWIW, close enough to a draw in my book.
I'm a drive the car into the ground kind of person, but I think it would be hard to keep any EV 10 years. I suspect technology is changing too fast, and I don't think updates are going to be as simple as software updates or even chip updates.

Even more so for autonomous cars as sensors become better.
Yup, and technology changes things quickly. I expect I'll be in an EV someday, but not there yet.
There are other factors too, like I've heard the insurance on Teslas can be pretty bad, and personally when a cars value is somewhere around $10k or less I stop worrying about carrying comprehensive/collision coverage on it. I don't want a $50k car to worry about.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

You also have a hugely depreciating battery that must be replaced eventually and is extremely expensive to do so as it’s one of the primary core costs of the vehicle
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by rhoms33 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:52 am You also have a hugely depreciating battery that must be replaced eventually and is extremely expensive to do so as it’s one of the primary core costs of the vehicle
The majority of early Model S are still on the road with their original packs, many with hundreds of thousands of miles on them 10 years later. Not to mention most EV's come with 8 year/100k mile or longer battery warranty that outlines minimum acceptable degradation.

The maintenance cost and downtime over that course of time is significantly less than ICEV - A model S with 250k miles has maybe needed a set of pads or rotors once, a couple brake fluid flushes, and a bunch of tires. The ICEV would have had 25 oil changes, a few coolant flushes, timing belts or chains, multiple sets of pads/rotors, air filters, spark plugs... and that's if nothing broke.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

rhoms33 wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 9:17 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:52 am You also have a hugely depreciating battery that must be replaced eventually and is extremely expensive to do so as it’s one of the primary core costs of the vehicle
The majority of early Model S are still on the road with their original packs, many with hundreds of thousands of miles on them 10 years later. Not to mention most EV's come with 8 year/100k mile or longer battery warranty that outlines minimum acceptable degradation.

The maintenance cost and downtime over that course of time is significantly less than ICEV - A model S with 250k miles has maybe needed a set of pads or rotors once, a couple brake fluid flushes, and a bunch of tires. The ICEV would have had 25 oil changes, a few coolant flushes, timing belts or chains, multiple sets of pads/rotors, air filters, spark plugs... and that's if nothing broke.
Still on the road with significantly reduced mileage. How acceptable that is depends on your personal situation, but regardless it greatly impacts resale value
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by rhoms33 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 9:30 am
rhoms33 wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 9:17 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:52 am You also have a hugely depreciating battery that must be replaced eventually and is extremely expensive to do so as it’s one of the primary core costs of the vehicle
The majority of early Model S are still on the road with their original packs, many with hundreds of thousands of miles on them 10 years later. Not to mention most EV's come with 8 year/100k mile or longer battery warranty that outlines minimum acceptable degradation.

The maintenance cost and downtime over that course of time is significantly less than ICEV - A model S with 250k miles has maybe needed a set of pads or rotors once, a couple brake fluid flushes, and a bunch of tires. The ICEV would have had 25 oil changes, a few coolant flushes, timing belts or chains, multiple sets of pads/rotors, air filters, spark plugs... and that's if nothing broke.
Still on the road with significantly reduced mileage. How acceptable that is depends on your personal situation, but regardless it greatly impacts resale value
Tesla resale value has proved to be very strong regardless.

The lowest priced 2012/3 Model S on cars.com is $30k with 150k miles on it. There are 167 2013 BMW 7 series on cars.com for less than $30k, many in the teens.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by randomguy »

rhoms33 wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 9:17 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:52 am You also have a hugely depreciating battery that must be replaced eventually and is extremely expensive to do so as it’s one of the primary core costs of the vehicle
The majority of early Model S are still on the road with their original packs, many with hundreds of thousands of miles on them 10 years later. Not to mention most EV's come with 8 year/100k mile or longer battery warranty that outlines minimum acceptable degradation.

The maintenance cost and downtime over that course of time is significantly less than ICEV - A model S with 250k miles has maybe needed a set of pads or rotors once, a couple brake fluid flushes, and a bunch of tires. The ICEV would have had 25 oil changes, a few coolant flushes, timing belts or chains, multiple sets of pads/rotors, air filters, spark plugs... and that's if nothing broke.
The odds of a 250k model S having the drive unit replaced has to be close to 100%. The reliability in those first couple years was down at Landrover levels... Battery is at least 50/50. We are just hitting the point where we should be seeing how good they are. Any car should get to 10 years/100k with minimal problems. The interesting part is how many get to 15-20 years and 200k miles....
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Johndoefire65 »

Normchad wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:45 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:06 pm
Semantics wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:13 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:19 pm They are priced to own 50% of the car market in the world right now. If they don't pick up the low-end car market or the pickup truck market, they lose.

Tesla is worth $1 trillion.

Toyota is worth $231 billion
BYD (China) is worth $100 billion
Volkswagon is worth $100 billion
Mercedes-Benz is worth $73 billion
Ford is worth $62 billion
General Motors is worth $58 billion
BMW is worth $53 billion
Honda is worth $44 billion.

I'm still not to $1 trillion. I could keep going. Tesla is currently priced at more than the other top 17 car companies COMBINED.

They have to be the best at all categories to justify that price. Losing on trucks will indeed hurt them long-term.

It's really insane, the pricing.
No, they're priced to own 50% of the future PROFITS in the car market (assuming no other businesses like insurance). Not to beat a dead horse, but they are vastly more efficient than anyone else at manufacturing and selling cars.
How are they more efficient than Toyota?
They only need ten labor hours to assemble a car. They don’t spend any money on advertising. They don’t have a dealer network to pay.

Also, the cars themselves are more efficient. The 70KWh battery in a Tesla has a 300 mile range, everybody else is around 225. So for equivalent range, Tesla spends less on the battery.

They have that 30 or 32% margin. Additionally, they get $10/month subscription from most owners. And eventually, I will subscribe to FSD for another $200/month.

They are good at making money.
Yeah add on top of that no place to get them serviced or fixed. That's a savings as well for Tesla.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by rhoms33 »

randomguy wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 10:02 am
The odds of a 250k model S having the drive unit replaced has to be close to 100%. The reliability in those first couple years was down at Landrover levels... Battery is at least 50/50. We are just hitting the point where we should be seeing how good they are. Any car should get to 10 years/100k with minimal problems. The interesting part is how many get to 15-20 years and 200k miles....
Agreed will be interesting to see how high mileage 2018+ M3 fare. It's difficult to find conclusive numbers on drive unit replacements for early cars, just like it's difficult to know how many pre 2015 N20 BMW replaced due to timing chain failures, but we know both were high.

I personally would never own any expensive modern car out of warranty, EV or ICE. My 2020 Taycan has already have a drive unit replacement and spent 50+ days in the shop.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Johndoefire65 »

rhoms33 wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 10:13 am
randomguy wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 10:02 am
The odds of a 250k model S having the drive unit replaced has to be close to 100%. The reliability in those first couple years was down at Landrover levels... Battery is at least 50/50. We are just hitting the point where we should be seeing how good they are. Any car should get to 10 years/100k with minimal problems. The interesting part is how many get to 15-20 years and 200k miles....
Agreed will be interesting to see how high mileage 2018+ M3 fare. It's difficult to find conclusive numbers on drive unit replacements for early cars, just like it's difficult to know how many pre 2015 N20 BMW replaced due to timing chain failures, but we know both were high.

I personally would never own any expensive modern car out of warranty, EV or ICE. My 2020 Taycan has already have a drive unit replacement and spent 50+ days in the shop.
Agree. Most cars have same warranty. $11k chevy spark is same as a $70k suburban. Buy the budget car, get the new warranty, retire at 40.
Normchad
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Normchad »

Johndoefire65 wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 10:08 am
Normchad wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:45 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:06 pm
Semantics wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:13 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:19 pm They are priced to own 50% of the car market in the world right now. If they don't pick up the low-end car market or the pickup truck market, they lose.

Tesla is worth $1 trillion.

Toyota is worth $231 billion
BYD (China) is worth $100 billion
Volkswagon is worth $100 billion
Mercedes-Benz is worth $73 billion
Ford is worth $62 billion
General Motors is worth $58 billion
BMW is worth $53 billion
Honda is worth $44 billion.

I'm still not to $1 trillion. I could keep going. Tesla is currently priced at more than the other top 17 car companies COMBINED.

They have to be the best at all categories to justify that price. Losing on trucks will indeed hurt them long-term.

It's really insane, the pricing.
No, they're priced to own 50% of the future PROFITS in the car market (assuming no other businesses like insurance). Not to beat a dead horse, but they are vastly more efficient than anyone else at manufacturing and selling cars.
How are they more efficient than Toyota?
They only need ten labor hours to assemble a car. They don’t spend any money on advertising. They don’t have a dealer network to pay.

Also, the cars themselves are more efficient. The 70KWh battery in a Tesla has a 300 mile range, everybody else is around 225. So for equivalent range, Tesla spends less on the battery.

They have that 30 or 32% margin. Additionally, they get $10/month subscription from most owners. And eventually, I will subscribe to FSD for another $200/month.

They are good at making money.
Yeah add on top of that no place to get them serviced or fixed. That's a savings as well for Tesla.
They do have service centers. Although the ones I’ve seen are a lot smaller than a typical dealer.

I’ve heard that traditional dealers make most of their money from service, and not that much from sales. If that’s true, how motivated will traditional dealers be to sell cars that won’t need very much service in the future? Might the dealers actually push ICE vehicles more than EVs, and thereby hinder the speed of EV adoption for the traditional automakers. Some are already balking at paying the bill to add EV chargers to their dealer lots.
randomguy
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by randomguy »

rhoms33 wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 10:13 am
randomguy wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 10:02 am
The odds of a 250k model S having the drive unit replaced has to be close to 100%. The reliability in those first couple years was down at Landrover levels... Battery is at least 50/50. We are just hitting the point where we should be seeing how good they are. Any car should get to 10 years/100k with minimal problems. The interesting part is how many get to 15-20 years and 200k miles....
Agreed will be interesting to see how high mileage 2018+ M3 fare. It's difficult to find conclusive numbers on drive unit replacements for early cars, just like it's difficult to know how many pre 2015 N20 BMW replaced due to timing chain failures, but we know both were high.

I personally would never own any expensive modern car out of warranty, EV or ICE. My 2020 Taycan has already have a drive unit replacement and spent 50+ days in the shop.
I am cautiously optimistic they have fixed some of the early issues but who knows what else is out there. But another part of me wonders why Tesla charges so much for an extended warranty (and again we are talking the early years of ownership here) if the odds of warranty work is so low? What do they know that you don't? Why did the Tesla maintenance plan cost as much as ICE?

The few real world examples like C&D always seem to come back with costs the same as any other car.
Johndoefire65
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Johndoefire65 »

Normchad wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 10:29 am
Johndoefire65 wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 10:08 am
Normchad wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:45 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:06 pm
Semantics wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 6:13 pm

No, they're priced to own 50% of the future PROFITS in the car market (assuming no other businesses like insurance). Not to beat a dead horse, but they are vastly more efficient than anyone else at manufacturing and selling cars.
How are they more efficient than Toyota?
They only need ten labor hours to assemble a car. They don’t spend any money on advertising. They don’t have a dealer network to pay.

Also, the cars themselves are more efficient. The 70KWh battery in a Tesla has a 300 mile range, everybody else is around 225. So for equivalent range, Tesla spends less on the battery.

They have that 30 or 32% margin. Additionally, they get $10/month subscription from most owners. And eventually, I will subscribe to FSD for another $200/month.

They are good at making money.
Yeah add on top of that no place to get them serviced or fixed. That's a savings as well for Tesla.
They do have service centers. Although the ones I’ve seen are a lot smaller than a typical dealer.

I’ve heard that traditional dealers make most of their money from service, and not that much from sales. If that’s true, how motivated will traditional dealers be to sell cars that won’t need very much service in the future? Might the dealers actually push ICE vehicles more than EVs, and thereby hinder the speed of EV adoption for the traditional automakers. Some are already balking at paying the bill to add EV chargers to their dealer lots.
Closest Tesla service is 3 hours, each way. Closest American brand, 20 minutes.
Nysoz
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

JoMoney wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:07 am Starting MSRP on a Hyundai Elantra = $19,950
Starting MSRP on a Tesla = $46,990
(+$27,040 difference)

$250m x 12mo x 10yrs = $30,000
$20 x 12mo x 10yrs = $2,400
(-$27,600 difference)

FWIW, close enough to a draw in my book. The kicker is I have no convenient charging at my apartment complex nor at work.
I average 50 miles a day, average 33mpg, and at $5 gas still under $250/mo.
I enjoy not having to even think about "charging" all the time, I fill a little more than once a week with less than 5 minutes thought about it.
You'd also have to add oil changes once or twice a year and some brake pads but that doesn't move the needle much. You'd be surprised how easy it is to charge as long as you have reliable charging at home or work. It takes 5 seconds every day to plug in the car and it just becomes a habit really quickly. Depending on your drive and overall range, you can forget to charge for a day or 2 and not worry.

After getting used to it, home charging and waking up every day with a full charge was much easier in my mind than checking the fuel gauge and thinking about oil changes.
Johndoefire65 wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 11:10 am Closest Tesla service is 3 hours, each way. Closest American brand, 20 minutes.
Depending on what you need, Tesla mobile service will come out to you and fix it at home or at work. I was in a similar situation with the nearest service center 3 hours away in multiple directions. They came to my house and fixed my bumper fit issue I noticed, 8 months after ownership, for free.
Johndoefire65
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Johndoefire65 »

JoMoney wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 8:07 am
Nysoz wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 7:42 am EVs are much cheaper to own and operate than ICE. The problem is what people compare as equivalents. Some people compare the Tesla Model 3 to an entry level BMW 3 series and others a Toyota Corolla. There are cheaper options out there like the Nissan Leaf.

Then it's market and home charging dependent with local gas and electricity prices with how much someone drives. Personally I was able to go from $250 in gas to $20 in electricity a month (and this was in 2019 before current gas price increases and now would be closer to $400-450). Also factor in no oil changes and essentially no brake pad costs for the vast life of the vehicle and EVs win out easily at comparable initial starting purchase price. This doesn't consider all the other moving parts in an ICE system that can need repair/replacement.

Teslas don't have large widespread driving/mechanical reliability issues. The reports that say there's reliability issues are usually more for fit/finish and users that aren't used to the interface. Every car company and model will have isolated issues.
Starting MSRP on a Hyundai Elantra = $19,950
Starting MSRP on a Tesla = $46,990
(+$27,040 difference)

$250m x 12mo x 10yrs = $30,000
$20 x 12mo x 10yrs = $2,400
(-$27,600 difference)

FWIW, close enough to a draw in my book. The kicker is I have no convenient charging at my apartment complex nor at work.
I average 50 miles a day, average 33mpg, and at $5 gas still under $250/mo.
I enjoy not having to even think about "charging" all the time, I fill a little more than once a week with less than 5 minutes thought about it.
Don't forget electric cars can lose up to 50% efficiency in very cold climates. Aka northern states. ICE cars maybe lose 25%.

Also most cars without turbos can do 30% ethanol pretty easy. I use 50% alcohol for $3.40 a gallon. Lose 1 or 2 mpg is all. Still getting 37mpg. Been doing 30%-50%in non flex cars for years. Kia, jeep, ford. Over half million miles no issues
ajpond
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by ajpond »

Out with the old, in with the new. Am a Tesla owner and whenever I use my other car (ICE) I personally feel like it’s rotary phone vs. iPhone or old boxy & heavy TV’s vs flatscreens, etc. and end up fast forwarding to an image of junk yard’s with all this old stuff. Very happy that other manufacturers are getting in the game and hoping accessibility increases for all soon. Have no idea how things shake out in terms of who wins at what game but am very excited by opportunities to participate in innovation of all forms. It is the lifeblood of industries and nations.
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HomerJ
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by HomerJ »

oragne lovre wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:05 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 12:50 pm
GP813 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:50 am Right now GM and Ford's most profitable vehicles are ICE trucks with a lot of accessories. To win the EV future they will have to erode or cannibalize that business and everything associated with it, all while their investors are patient enough or have the conviction they will win the future with EVs. How likely is that to happen?

Tesla is starting with a clean slate, their is no legacy business to untangle. I can also envision Tesla being like Apple, they have their cult followers with extreme brand loyalty because the cars are about the entire experience since Tesla makes the chips, app store, batteries, software, design, direct to consumer(no dealer network) and electric charging network so the whole experience integrates together. The legacy automakers are going to depends on someone like Nvidia or NXP Semi to make their chips, Google or Blackberry to make their software, the various battery makers to partner with them or make their batteries, dealerships who have a conflict of interest to sell EVs, third party charging networks who are in business for themselves, etc.

I remember this argument being used against Apple. Sure Apple had the head-start in smartphones but now Google is coming or Microsoft(lol), the Chinese brands are going to beat them etc but it never materialized. It never materialized because of the way Apple puts everything together so that even if you have a better spec'd Android phone it performs worse, and none of the phone-makers who compete against Apple make money all the ways that Apple does. You buy a Samsung phone and you use the Google Play store so Samsung is not making the same money Apple is. I see Tesla following a very similar blueprint to what Apple did with smartphones. They don't need to be the market share leader if they produce the car that actually makes more money and all the services and purchases you use associated with that car goes back to Tesla.
Phones are different from cars

Ecosystem is important for phones, you use them all the time throughout the day and they essentially store your life

There is no sticky moat for cars.
I'm not sure if you a Tesla "car" owner or not. My personal experience with Tesla "cars" is quite not like what I've had with my old faithful Toyota Camry. My Tesla "cars" have become more like my personal "mobile dens". I can manage work when I'm in a Tesla without increasing the risks of distraction from commuting. I can relax myself in it with HD streaming music. I can watch movies in it when I have some downtime, waiting to pick up my children. I can enjoy my hobby, which is learning foreign languages, through available Tesla media. I can get cozy during cold evenings by turning on electronic "fireplace" to get warm while listening to favorite music tunes, etc. In other words, I can efficiently manage the time while in a Tesla. And of course, it can get me from point A to point B. All these experiences make me ask myself questions

"Is Tesla a car or a smart phone or a personal computer on 4 wheels?"

"Is Tesla really a car company?"

"Is Tesla ecosystem as the same as that of Apple or different from that of Apple?"
Everything you wrote there I can do with my phone in my old Honda. I see nothing special in ANYTHING you wrote. Very weird. You can listen to music? You can watch a movie or get on Duo-Lingo while parked waiting to pick up your kids? Your Tesla has heat? I have no idea what point you are trying to make.
Last edited by HomerJ on Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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HomerJ
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by HomerJ »

Nysoz wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 7:42 am EVs are much cheaper to own and operate than ICE. The problem is what people compare as equivalents. Some people compare the Tesla Model 3 to an entry level BMW 3 series and others a Toyota Corolla. There are cheaper options out there like the Nissan Leaf.

Then it's market and home charging dependent with local gas and electricity prices with how much someone drives. Personally I was able to go from $250 in gas to $20 in electricity a month (and this was in 2019 before current gas price increases and now would be closer to $400-450). Also factor in no oil changes and essentially no brake pad costs for the vast life of the vehicle and EVs win out easily at comparable initial starting purchase price. This doesn't consider all the other moving parts in an ICE system that can need repair/replacement.

Teslas don't have large widespread driving/mechanical reliability issues. The reports that say there's reliability issues are usually more for fit/finish and users that aren't used to the interface. Every car company and model will have isolated issues.
Except the car costs you $20,000 more, so it takes you 6-7 years to break even from all the "savings".

It's okay to own a Tesla, but it doesn't actually save you money.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
finite_difference
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by finite_difference »

stoptothink wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 1:42 pm
CletusCaddy wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:06 am
stoptothink wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 6:46 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:49 pm
Normchad wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:45 pm
They only need ten labor hours to assemble a car. They don’t spend any money on advertising. They don’t have a dealer network to pay.

Also, the cars themselves are more efficient. The 70KWh battery in a Tesla has a 300 mile range, everybody else is around 225. So for equivalent range, Tesla spends less on the battery.

They have that 30 or 32% margin. Additionally, they get $10/month subscription from most owners. And eventually, I will subscribe to FSD for another $200/month.

They are good at making money.
If they are so efficient why are they far more expensive than many ICE equivalents?
:confused Because EVs are simply more (a lot more) expensive than ICE vehicles to produce. Teslas are not more expensive than comparable EVs from other manufacturers. Check out recent statements from Mercedes CEO about the cost of producing EVs; several automotive execs have recently come out saying an EV-dominated market isn't possible in the near future because it is cost-prohibitive.
Is that why every major auto manufacturer has announced they will be selling only EVs by the 2030s?
https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a3962 ... e-cheaper/
https://www.motorious.com/articles/news ... tric-cars/

Hyperbole much? Not every manufacturer is committed solely to EVs by 2030. If your statement comes to fruition, I'll be very happy that these executives were wrong. For now, manufacturers can make all the empty promises they want to (something Musk is a master at), it does not change the fact that EVs are simply a lot more expensive to produce.

I am very pro-EV, but for EVs to dominate the market (even by 2030) there has to be some major infrastructure change and technological breakthroughs regarding batteries, otherwise consumers will just have to accept that their vehicles will cost more.
That’s just not true. Every year batteries get about 10% more efficient. As we know from finance, 10% every year compounds very quickly. No “major breakthrough” is needed. That’s your hyperbole right there.

The billions of phones and other handheld devices are all helping to make battery technology more and more efficient.

Can you imagine if ICE cars got 10% more efficient every year? In that scenario, EVs would have a hard time. But ICE efficiency has pretty been stalled for a while now.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
finite_difference
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by finite_difference »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:06 pm
Normchad wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 10:00 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:49 pm
Normchad wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:45 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:06 pm

How are they more efficient than Toyota?
They only need ten labor hours to assemble a car. They don’t spend any money on advertising. They don’t have a dealer network to pay.

Also, the cars themselves are more efficient. The 70KWh battery in a Tesla has a 300 mile range, everybody else is around 225. So for equivalent range, Tesla spends less on the battery.

They have that 30 or 32% margin. Additionally, they get $10/month subscription from most owners. And eventually, I will subscribe to FSD for another $200/month.

They are good at making money.
If they are so efficient why are they far more expensive than many ICE equivalents?

Great that they are highly profitable now, but I don’t see why any of what TSLA is doing is somehow unachievable for similar costs and scale elsewhere

Once that happens, there’s no reason to believe they’ll maintain such margins
Why would they lower their prices when customers are waiting in line to buy every single thing they make? And I don’t actually know if anybody else even makes money on EVs yet.

I’m not saying they will take over the world. I was just listing some of the very significant ways I which they are more efficient. And some of those might be an enduring advantage.

When the big 3 went through bankruptcy (or came close in the GFC) they fought tooth and nail to close down their dealerships; specifically citing them as a huge financial hindrance. They basically lost on that. And they also carp heavily about unionized labor and legacy costs. And they will have those forever as well.

But they also have lots of factories now, and lots of workers. And I think it’s gonna be really hard for them to switch over to EVs. I hope they do. I hope they are successful, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
In the short term, there’s no reason to drop prices, but long term the market will get a lot more competitive

Toyota and others are incredibly efficient at making vehicles. They are behind the curve, but 5-10 years from now I have no reason to believe they’re incapable of marching or exceeding Tesla’s manufacturing abilities at making EVs
Toyota also has a lot of baggage that makes it inefficient. Toyota produces ICE unleaded gasoline cars, ICE diesel trucks, hydrogen fuel cell cars, hydrogen fuel cell semi trucks, hybrid cars and a little EV on the side.

Tesla is pure EV, which is the future.

I think Toyota and Honda have the best engineering for ICE cars in the world. However, ICE is dead technology. It’s going to be hard for them to retrain all those ICE engineers in EV. There’s a lot inefficiency involved, and they are probably hesitant to layoff the entire workforce on those product lines.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
stoptothink
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by stoptothink »

finite_difference wrote: Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:34 am
stoptothink wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 1:42 pm
CletusCaddy wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:06 am
stoptothink wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 6:46 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:49 pm

If they are so efficient why are they far more expensive than many ICE equivalents?
:confused Because EVs are simply more (a lot more) expensive than ICE vehicles to produce. Teslas are not more expensive than comparable EVs from other manufacturers. Check out recent statements from Mercedes CEO about the cost of producing EVs; several automotive execs have recently come out saying an EV-dominated market isn't possible in the near future because it is cost-prohibitive.
Is that why every major auto manufacturer has announced they will be selling only EVs by the 2030s?
https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a3962 ... e-cheaper/
https://www.motorious.com/articles/news ... tric-cars/

Hyperbole much? Not every manufacturer is committed solely to EVs by 2030. If your statement comes to fruition, I'll be very happy that these executives were wrong. For now, manufacturers can make all the empty promises they want to (something Musk is a master at), it does not change the fact that EVs are simply a lot more expensive to produce.

I am very pro-EV, but for EVs to dominate the market (even by 2030) there has to be some major infrastructure change and technological breakthroughs regarding batteries, otherwise consumers will just have to accept that their vehicles will cost more.
That’s just not true. Every year batteries get about 10% more efficient. As we know from finance, 10% every year compounds very quickly. No “major breakthrough” is needed. That’s your hyperbole right there.

The billions of phones and other handheld devices are all helping to make battery technology more and more efficient.

Can you imagine if ICE cars got 10% more efficient every year? In that scenario, EVs would have a hard time. But ICE efficiency has pretty been stalled for a while now.
Did I say a single anything about battery efficiency :confused Several car manufacturer execs have recently come out saying there are a few barriers to EVs dominating the car market in the U.S. (at least in the near future). They (and I) were referring primarily to two things: cost of batteries (therefore total cost of production) and charging issues (among several things, it's difficult or impossible to do at home for a large segment of the population, especially in densely-populated areas). Those are the "technological breakthroughs" I was referring to, and there doesn't seem to be a solid answers to those issues (at least not now, and for the entirety of the U.S. car-buying market). The infrastructure concerns are a totally different animal.

Batteries make EVs cost more to produce than directly comparable ICE vehicles and therefore are/will cost more to consumers (at least upfront). I initially pointed that out in support of companies producing EVs (because someone asked why EVs cost more than comparable ICE vehicles if TESLA is more efficient than other established car manufacturers), I am confused why three posters now have attempted to twist my words to debate that incontrovertible fact.
finite_difference
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by finite_difference »

stoptothink wrote: Sat Apr 23, 2022 6:15 am
finite_difference wrote: Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:34 am
stoptothink wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 1:42 pm
CletusCaddy wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:06 am
stoptothink wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 6:46 am

:confused Because EVs are simply more (a lot more) expensive than ICE vehicles to produce. Teslas are not more expensive than comparable EVs from other manufacturers. Check out recent statements from Mercedes CEO about the cost of producing EVs; several automotive execs have recently come out saying an EV-dominated market isn't possible in the near future because it is cost-prohibitive.
Is that why every major auto manufacturer has announced they will be selling only EVs by the 2030s?
https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a3962 ... e-cheaper/
https://www.motorious.com/articles/news ... tric-cars/

Hyperbole much? Not every manufacturer is committed solely to EVs by 2030. If your statement comes to fruition, I'll be very happy that these executives were wrong. For now, manufacturers can make all the empty promises they want to (something Musk is a master at), it does not change the fact that EVs are simply a lot more expensive to produce.

I am very pro-EV, but for EVs to dominate the market (even by 2030) there has to be some major infrastructure change and technological breakthroughs regarding batteries, otherwise consumers will just have to accept that their vehicles will cost more.
That’s just not true. Every year batteries get about 10% more efficient. As we know from finance, 10% every year compounds very quickly. No “major breakthrough” is needed. That’s your hyperbole right there.

The billions of phones and other handheld devices are all helping to make battery technology more and more efficient.

Can you imagine if ICE cars got 10% more efficient every year? In that scenario, EVs would have a hard time. But ICE efficiency has pretty been stalled for a while now.
Did I say a single anything about battery efficiency :confused Several car manufacturer execs have recently come out saying there are a few barriers to EVs dominating the car market in the U.S. (at least in the near future). They (and I) were referring primarily to two things: cost of batteries (therefore total cost of production) and charging issues (among several things, it's difficult or impossible to do at home for a large segment of the population, especially in densely-populated areas). Those are the "technological breakthroughs" I was referring to, and there doesn't seem to be a solid answers to those issues (at least not now, and for the entirety of the U.S. car-buying market). The infrastructure concerns are a totally different animal.

Batteries make EVs cost more to produce than directly comparable ICE vehicles and therefore are/will cost more to consumers (at least upfront). I initially pointed that out in support of companies producing EVs (because someone asked why EVs cost more than comparable ICE vehicles if TESLA is more efficient than other established car manufacturers), I am confused why three posters now have attempted to twist my words to debate that incontrovertible fact.
10% more efficient per year means it gets cheaper every year because you can use less material.
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
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