TSLA: What Changed?

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stoptothink
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by stoptothink »

randomguy wrote: Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:10 pm
stoptothink wrote: Wed Apr 13, 2022 12:21 pm

It's important to note that Toyota's offering isn't really a Model Y competitor. Even the top trim (AWD limited) has a very significant power, overall performance, and range disadvantage compared to the base model Y. I don't think Tesla would have issues developing a comparable vehicle for a similar pricepoint.
Yes a 65k model Y (well assuming they don't up the price before I post) should be a much nicer car than a 42k toyota. The issue isn't the Toyota. It is the hoard of EVs coming out from everyone under the sun. 3 years ago, if you wanted an EV, you were basically buying a Tesla. These days you can buy an EV6, ID.4, ix, Q4, Polestar, and a zillion other options. If you want an EV SUV, you no longer need to overpay for all that telsa performance you don't need. You can save 20k and get the toyota. Want some luxury? Audi and BMW are there.

And I expect Tesla would have issues developing a competitor. They are stretched as it is developing their current product line (i.e. how much have the cyber truck and semi been delayed?). I doubt they can squeeze in another product.
Well, of course, but the pricepoint is not the issue.
impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Short-Term
Tesla deliveries
Q4 2021 - 308k
Q1 2022 - 310k
Q2 2022 - 340k(street consensus before Shanghai shutdown)
Updated Q2 2022 - 273-340k (Depends on when Shanghai shutdown ends)

With Shanghai being a big profit center for Tesla, folks holding TSLA do your research.
=====
Long-Term
US market share of EVs was 3.8% in 2021. In Europe (and California) pure EV market share was ~9%. Still so low with all the rebates and double gasoline price as compared to US. In Norway gas vehicles have 100% tax (double price) and EVs have no tax.

In US will EV sales ever cross 10-15% marketshare?
Will Tesla continue to dominate in US? In Europe its market-share dropped from 20% in 2019 to 7% in 2021

https://insideevs.com/news/566900/us-pl ... es-2021q4/
impatientInv wrote: Sat Feb 05, 2022 4:59 pm
Europe (5x bigger market than US)
Total EV sales 2021 - over 2M
Plugin EVs 18.4% market-share (around half are plugin hybrids, rest are pure EVs )
Tesla share among EVs 7%
VW group share 24%
Image

Tesla EV market-share in Europe dropped from 20% in 2019 to 7% in 2021. it is not even in the top 5.
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Valuethinker
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Valuethinker »

impatientInv wrote: Wed Apr 13, 2022 6:35 pm Short-Term
Tesla deliveries
Q4 2021 - 308k
Q1 2022 - 310k
Q2 2022 - 340k(street consensus before Shanghai shutdown)
Updated Q2 2022 - 273-340k (Depends on when Shanghai shutdown ends)

With Shanghai being a big profit center for Tesla, folks holding TSLA do your research.
=====
Long-Term
US market share of EVs was 3.8% in 2021. In Europe (and California) pure EV market share was ~9%. Still so low with all the rebates and double gasoline price as compared to US. In Norway gas vehicles have 100% tax (double price) and EVs have no tax.

In US will EV sales ever cross 10-15% marketshare?
Will Tesla continue to dominate in US? In Europe its market-share dropped from 20% in 2019 to 7% in 2021

https://insideevs.com/news/566900/us-pl ... es-2021q4/
impatientInv wrote: Sat Feb 05, 2022 4:59 pm
Europe (5x bigger market than US)
Total EV sales 2021 - over 2M
Plugin EVs 18.4% market-share (around half are plugin hybrids, rest are pure EVs )
Tesla share among EVs 7%
VW group share 24%
Image

Tesla EV market-share in Europe dropped from 20% in 2019 to 7% in 2021. it is not even in the top 5.
It's really early days to "call" what's happening in Europe and who the winners are.

I agree we have seen the launch of a lot of EV models that look good: Hyundai and Kia, VW etc. Plus new lines from Daimler & BMW at the more luxury end. I would say Tesla still seems to have the technological edge in range and performance (but the finish is poorer).

The situation in Ukraine has made me much more confident that European countries (plus the UK) will switch into EVs at a very fast rate. High petrol (gas) prices not likely to go away quickly. 20% of cars sold in the UK in 2021 were EVs or PHEVs. Subsidies are now basically at the low end only.

It's definitely going to be a tougher market for Tesla. On the other hand, I keep seeing Teslas locally (London suburbs). That wasn't true 2-3 years ago.

This thing is happening. It really is.
harikaried
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

Valuethinker wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:26 amI keep seeing Teslas locally (London suburbs). That wasn't true 2-3 years ago.
Tesla only started selling the Model Y there a couple months ago in February, so I guess we'll see in a year(?) how much backlog demand vs new demand will be. Presumably Shanghai is set up to continue making right-hand-drive vehicles, so there might not be a huge rush to have the new Berlin factory configured to make those.

I would guess most of the Teslas you keep seeing are Model 3s as last year, it was the 2nd best-selling vehicle overall (behind Vauxhall Corsa and ahead of MINI). Will the SUV take away sales from the sedan? At least so far through March in UK, Model Y sold 7,774 while Model 3 was just behind with 7,773. https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/9428 ... -cars-2022
randomguy
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by randomguy »

stoptothink wrote: Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:23 pm
randomguy wrote: Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:10 pm

And I expect Tesla would have issues developing a competitor. They are stretched as it is developing their current product line (i.e. how much have the cyber truck and semi been delayed?). I doubt they can squeeze in another product.
Well, of course, but the pricepoint is not the issue.
In theory sure. In reality they can't make the care. They missed a huge opportunity by not being first with a pick up truck. Basically the largest segment of car buyers and instead of being able to move people off existing brands, they are shipping a year or two behind the competition. And it looks like the same thing will happen in the mass market <50k CUV segment.

I will not pretend to know if such missteps will be fatal or not but they are not good signs.
stoptothink
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by stoptothink »

randomguy wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:53 am
stoptothink wrote: Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:23 pm
randomguy wrote: Wed Apr 13, 2022 1:10 pm

And I expect Tesla would have issues developing a competitor. They are stretched as it is developing their current product line (i.e. how much have the cyber truck and semi been delayed?). I doubt they can squeeze in another product.
Well, of course, but the pricepoint is not the issue.
In theory sure. In reality they can't make the care. They missed a huge opportunity by not being first with a pick up truck. Basically the largest segment of car buyers and instead of being able to move people off existing brands, they are shipping a year or two behind the competition. And it looks like the same thing will happen in the mass market <50k CUV segment.

I will not pretend to know if such missteps will be fatal or not but they are not good signs.
Tesla is selling every single car they can make - 6+ months ahead of time - despite doing pretty much everything they can to expand and ramp up production, so I'm not so sure they care. Despite the previous marketing messages, I'm not sure Tesla has current interest in <$50k cars and why should they when they can sell every single more expensive (higher-margin) vehicle they can produce? I have no interest in buying one, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by firebirdparts »

stoptothink wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 12:06 pm Tesla is selling every single car they can make - 6+ months ahead of time - despite doing pretty much everything they can to expand and ramp up production, so I'm not so sure they care. Despite the previous marketing messages, I'm not sure Tesla has current interest in <$50k cars and why should they when they can sell every single more expensive (higher-margin) vehicle they can produce? I have no interest in buying one, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation.
They make a very small number of cars, and that helps a very great deal with "selling all they can make." FWIW.
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stoptothink
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by stoptothink »

firebirdparts wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 12:10 pm
stoptothink wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 12:06 pm Tesla is selling every single car they can make - 6+ months ahead of time - despite doing pretty much everything they can to expand and ramp up production, so I'm not so sure they care. Despite the previous marketing messages, I'm not sure Tesla has current interest in <$50k cars and why should they when they can sell every single more expensive (higher-margin) vehicle they can produce? I have no interest in buying one, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation.
They make a very small number of cars, and that helps a very great deal with "selling all they can make." FWIW.
Not seeing your point. It's not like they are Ferrari, purposely limiting production. Tesla is doing everything they can to produce more and each quarter they set new production records, as waiting lists continue to get longer and longer. You may disagree, but I don't think not beating everybody else to the punch with a $40k CUV or pickup truck is really going to hurt them; now or long-term.
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HomerJ
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by HomerJ »

stoptothink wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 12:16 pm
firebirdparts wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 12:10 pm
stoptothink wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 12:06 pm Tesla is selling every single car they can make - 6+ months ahead of time - despite doing pretty much everything they can to expand and ramp up production, so I'm not so sure they care. Despite the previous marketing messages, I'm not sure Tesla has current interest in <$50k cars and why should they when they can sell every single more expensive (higher-margin) vehicle they can produce? I have no interest in buying one, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation.
They make a very small number of cars, and that helps a very great deal with "selling all they can make." FWIW.
Not seeing your point. It's not like they are Ferrari, purposely limiting production. Tesla is doing everything they can to produce more and each quarter they set new production records, as waiting lists continue to get longer and longer. You may disagree, but I don't think not beating everybody else to the punch with a $40k CUV or pickup truck is really going to hurt them; now or long-term.
It will definitely hurt them.

They are priced to own 50% of the car market in the world right now. If they don't pick up the low-end car market or the pickup truck market, they lose.

Tesla is worth $1 trillion.

Toyota is worth $231 billion
BYD (China) is worth $100 billion
Volkswagon is worth $100 billion
Mercedes-Benz is worth $73 billion
Ford is worth $62 billion
General Motors is worth $58 billion
BMW is worth $53 billion
Honda is worth $44 billion.

I'm still not to $1 trillion. I could keep going. Tesla is currently priced at more than the other top 17 car companies COMBINED.

They have to be the best at all categories to justify that price. Losing on trucks will indeed hurt them long-term.

It's really insane, the pricing.
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harikaried
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:19 pmLosing on trucks will indeed hurt them long-term
I haven't followed EV pickup trucks. Which vehicles are available and how many total sales there have been for Tesla to be losing on trucks already?
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Pickup truck market is > 11M vehicles in US. Or which F150 alone ship around 0.9M.

Ford, GMC, Hummer and Rivian will all sell more Truck EVs thank Cybertruck for the 2-3 years. With the crazy Cybertruck specs they maynot be able to ramp production till 2025-26

I thought Tesla was converting gas vehicle users, not competing with other EV makers.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

This place has a very high price target: https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst ... sla-model/

I'm sure many will disagree, perhaps dig into the report and be specific in a critique as to why they are wrong.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by LeftCoastIV »

I think it was Buffet that said: In the near term, the market is a voting machine, in the long term it is a weighing machine.

Tesla may be more voting than weighing right now.
harikaried
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

4nursebee wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 4:46 amThis place has a very high price target: https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst ... sla-model/
Seems odd that they want to focus on their idea of Tesla deploying a direct Uber/Lyft competitor:
While the company has not committed publicly to launching human-driven ride-hail, ARK detailed previously the strategic and tactical advantages of doing so.
While discounting Tesla's supposed focus on Optimus:
Additional business lines and opportunities could be strategically interesting and financially meaningful but are too uncertain at this time… The financial impact of that [humanoid robot] initiative most likely falls outside our five-year model window.
Maybe Tesla is large enough to work on both, but the latter is probably what Elon thinks is more critical.
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burritoLover
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by burritoLover »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:19 pm
stoptothink wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 12:16 pm
firebirdparts wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 12:10 pm
stoptothink wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 12:06 pm Tesla is selling every single car they can make - 6+ months ahead of time - despite doing pretty much everything they can to expand and ramp up production, so I'm not so sure they care. Despite the previous marketing messages, I'm not sure Tesla has current interest in <$50k cars and why should they when they can sell every single more expensive (higher-margin) vehicle they can produce? I have no interest in buying one, but that doesn't change the reality of the situation.
They make a very small number of cars, and that helps a very great deal with "selling all they can make." FWIW.
Not seeing your point. It's not like they are Ferrari, purposely limiting production. Tesla is doing everything they can to produce more and each quarter they set new production records, as waiting lists continue to get longer and longer. You may disagree, but I don't think not beating everybody else to the punch with a $40k CUV or pickup truck is really going to hurt them; now or long-term.
It will definitely hurt them.

They are priced to own 50% of the car market in the world right now. If they don't pick up the low-end car market or the pickup truck market, they lose.

Tesla is worth $1 trillion.

Toyota is worth $231 billion
BYD (China) is worth $100 billion
Volkswagon is worth $100 billion
Mercedes-Benz is worth $73 billion
Ford is worth $62 billion
General Motors is worth $58 billion
BMW is worth $53 billion
Honda is worth $44 billion.

I'm still not to $1 trillion. I could keep going. Tesla is currently priced at more than the other top 17 car companies COMBINED.

They have to be the best at all categories to justify that price. Losing on trucks will indeed hurt them long-term.

It's really insane, the pricing.
Yeah, but Elon is going to make in-home robots dude.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by randomguy »

harikaried wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:42 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:19 pmLosing on trucks will indeed hurt them long-term
I haven't followed EV pickup trucks. Which vehicles are available and how many total sales there have been for Tesla to be losing on trucks already?
Right now sales of Hummer and Rivian are minimal. Even over 12-18 months til the Cybertruck ships sales are not likely to be huge (i.e. we are talking like 100-200k units across all the brands). What is huge is the mind share of them not being leaders in EVs anymore. They had a chance to get all those people who only every thought about buying F150s to give their product a try and they missed it. Those people are likely to keep buying F150 Lightenings. It is easy to dominate a market when you are the only competition.

None of this is really about how good the Tesla product is. It is about how hard it will be to get a big enough market share to justify their valuations. On cars alone it would require absurd levels of success. But maybe things like selling 10k worth of beta software is the future. Or the home battery market explodes. Or the supercharger network turns into a money machine.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by randomguy »

4nursebee wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 4:46 am This place has a very high price target: https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst ... sla-model/

I'm sure many will disagree, perhaps dig into the report and be specific in a critique as to why they are wrong.
Uber made 5.78 in revenue in 2021. This prediction has the bottom 25% case making 51B in revenue (the bull case is 486b). Thats a lot of market growth. People adapting to a new world of cheap ride shares would probably take more years than they give it. I also think the predictions of release dates are highly optimistic (i.e. 10% chance of launching in the next 7 months, 16% next year) from everything I have seen. And that is just from the self driving part with no consideration about business models and the like. And then we can debate the assumptions about how much I will pay. Sure I might be willing to pay .60/mile not to drive. But why would I pay Tesla .60 when I can get the ride from Waymo for .55? We could easily end up in a situation where the service is a success but because of fierce competition, it isn't very profitable for anyone.

If things go right, you can come up ways to go yeah they will be worth 4k/share in 5 years. But that type of price bakes in a lot of things going right. I mean sure if in 5 years I can buy an optimus for 20k that cuts the grass, waits tables, does laundry, cooks dinner, scrubs the toilets, and so on, all these estimates are going to be absurdly low. But that is so far into vaporware territory.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

randomguy wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 3:46 pmWhat is huge is the mind share of them not being leaders in EVs anymore
Wasn't it GM who led electric vehicles introducing the EV1 years ago in the 90s? Nissan Leaf had hundreds of thousands of sales before Tesla even sold a Model 3. Mind share probably helps drive additional demand such as EV superbowl ads leading to people searching for Tesla, but there is probably some actual value people desired that resulted in millions buying a Tesla over other vehicles ICE or EV.

Whether Tesla can do that for the pickup truck and other segments even if they are years or many sales behind again, we'll need to wait and see for what they end up selling.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

randomguy wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 4:16 pm
4nursebee wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 4:46 am This place has a very high price target: https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst ... sla-model/

I'm sure many will disagree, perhaps dig into the report and be specific in a critique as to why they are wrong.
Uber made 5.78 in revenue in 2021. This prediction has the bottom 25% case making 51B in revenue (the bull case is 486b). Thats a lot of market growth. People adapting to a new world of cheap ride shares would probably take more years than they give it. I also think the predictions of release dates are highly optimistic (i.e. 10% chance of launching in the next 7 months, 16% next year) from everything I have seen. And that is just from the self driving part with no consideration about business models and the like. And then we can debate the assumptions about how much I will pay. Sure I might be willing to pay .60/mile not to drive. But why would I pay Tesla .60 when I can get the ride from Waymo for .55? We could easily end up in a situation where the service is a success but because of fierce competition, it isn't very profitable for anyone.

If things go right, you can come up ways to go yeah they will be worth 4k/share in 5 years. But that type of price bakes in a lot of things going right. I mean sure if in 5 years I can buy an optimus for 20k that cuts the grass, waits tables, does laundry, cooks dinner, scrubs the toilets, and so on, all these estimates are going to be absurdly low. But that is so far into vaporware territory.
Thanks.
When I read thru things I thought they were overly optimistic on the robotaxi stuff. I like the progress they are making but can't stomach that much optimism. It is kind of like buying into a drug company that only has a stage 3 drug trial or a lithium miner that has no product to sell other than signed contracts allowing mining in a certain area, full of possibilities but nothing on the market yet.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

harikaried wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 1:16 pm
4nursebee wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 4:46 amThis place has a very high price target: https://ark-invest.com/articles/analyst ... sla-model/
Seems odd that they want to focus on their idea of Tesla deploying a direct Uber/Lyft competitor:
While the company has not committed publicly to launching human-driven ride-hail, ARK detailed previously the strategic and tactical advantages of doing so.
While discounting Tesla's supposed focus on Optimus:
Additional business lines and opportunities could be strategically interesting and financially meaningful but are too uncertain at this time… The financial impact of that [humanoid robot] initiative most likely falls outside our five-year model window.
Maybe Tesla is large enough to work on both, but the latter is probably what Elon thinks is more critical.
In the TED talk this week, Musk said the robot would be more valuable than the car business, thought first working prototype in 2023. I similarly think valuing this in the market is tough to do, overly optimistic for something not yet available.

What most impresses me is the 4680 battery now available in cars. I'll be further impressed as they scale production of that battery.

I do think TSLA might just accomplish all of their goals. But along with that might comes a chance of failure. One of the main things I think TSLA bulls fail to account for is the mathematics of probabilities. I think there is some fancy math rule, I might not describe it well but will try. Let's say one assigns a probability of FSD coming true by year 2025 as 50%. Robot of 25%, robotaxi 25%, Truck 50%. Well to come up with the chance of all of those things coming true by 2025, one has to multiply those probabilities (.25 x .5 x .5 x .25) to get a 1.56 % chance of all of that coming true. So modeling some future value based upon predictions gets to be very difficult and complicated. So if things model some future value of 4T based upon all of those things coming true, there is a very low probability of it happening. Even if you said that each of those had a 75% chance, the math says only 21% chance of all of it happening.

So lets say one can rationalize some future market cap of 4T in 2025. I then have to come up with a present value. I've seen others choose lower discount percent, but what I've always done is figure a 20% discount per year. So in 2024 they would be worth 3.2T. 2023 2.56 T, and this year just 2T. For a super high potential valuation, at some reasonable chance of failure, I am not sure this is worth investing into at this point.

This is why I have a tough time modeling for future products not yet available.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Valuethinker »

harikaried wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:29 am
Valuethinker wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 3:26 amI keep seeing Teslas locally (London suburbs). That wasn't true 2-3 years ago.
Tesla only started selling the Model Y there a couple months ago in February, so I guess we'll see in a year(?) how much backlog demand vs new demand will be. Presumably Shanghai is set up to continue making right-hand-drive vehicles, so there might not be a huge rush to have the new Berlin factory configured to make those.

I would guess most of the Teslas you keep seeing are Model 3s as last year, it was the 2nd best-selling vehicle overall (behind Vauxhall Corsa and ahead of MINI). Will the SUV take away sales from the sedan? At least so far through March in UK, Model Y sold 7,774 while Model 3 was just behind with 7,773. https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/news/9428 ... -cars-2022
Thank you for pointing me to the data.

Vauxhall Corsa, rock bottom entry level car** ... means the value of the Teslas sold was several times that of the next largest model.

** I knew a guy who ran a driver training school. The car cos competed to sell him low end cars (Ford or Vauxhall) because their studies showed that the most likely first car buy was the car they qualified on (remember, Britain has a very difficult driving test, it's normal to fail 2-3 times before you pass). So that's why Vauxhall Corsa is number one (I am surprised it is not the Vauxhall Astra, which has a bit of a brand name here).
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by abuss368 »

Elon Musk continues to build an empire. It is incredible what he has achieved and where he talks about going. There are talkers and doers and folks like Mr. Musk come long once in a lifetime.

Best.
Tony
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impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

If you are invested in Tesla, you might be interested. He sells a TSLA service forecast on Patreon and advertises his accuracy..

One interesting estimate is that Berlin and Texas will ship < 70k each.

Tesla deliveries
Q4 2021 - 308k
Q1 2022 - 310k
estimates
Q2 2022 - 340k(street consensus before Shanghai shutdown)
His updated estimate due to shutdown
Q2 2022 - 252K
2022 year - 1,377k

Image
https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/ ... 3876687880

On the positive
An internal Tesla email shows a Tesla global supply manager informing employees that Tesla Giga Shanghai will resume single-shift closed production on April 18.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/15/business ... index.html
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impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

What has changed for TSLA? The Elon's phenomena is truly centerstage. TSLA stock juggernaut will continue for many more years. Doesnt matter how it is engineered or how it happens.

My worry is how much of the US stock market depends on TSLA and Elon being on top. If TSLA stock crashes, will it bring down the whole market. Because Fed has bigger problems - Inflation and doesnt have stock markets back.
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PS: Earning on 4/20 doesn't matter.
Cathie Wood projects Tesla to hit $4,600 per share by 2026
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

I'm reading this analyst report, no reaction yet.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ ... 8-2022.pdf
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impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

4nursebee wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 7:02 pm I'm reading this analyst report, no reaction yet.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/ ... 8-2022.pdf
Do you own TSLA stock directly? What % of portfolio? I just own via index funds. Would be nice to know, before discussing.

1. Worm capital largest holding is TSLA. So they are not independent analyst. It's in their interest for TSLA to stock price to increase.
2. They expect 1,600k vehicles shipped in 2022
3. They expect $92M revenue in 2022 and $141 in 2023.

These are super aggressive. We can wait till year end to see accuracy of 2022 forecasts.
For 2022 deliveries Tesla itself estimates 1,500k and the analyst above 1,377k, reduced due to Shanghai shutdowns.
Image
Last edited by impatientInv on Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:03 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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4nursebee
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

"A world of abundance" discussed in this interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRvf00NooN8

Note: unintentionally this vid was posted a few posts back. Long interview covering many topics.
Last edited by 4nursebee on Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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harikaried
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

4nursebee wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 7:02 pmI'm reading this analyst report, no reaction yet: The Tesla Decade | Worm Capital (PDF)
4nursebee wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:01 pm"A world of abundance" discussed in this interview: Elon Musk: A future worth getting excited about | TED (YouTube)
Well that analyst report from today seems to have outdated FSD Beta tester numbers vs the TED Elon Musk interview that was released yesterday. Although to be fair, it does report "60,000+" whereas at 16:53 of that video: "we have over 100,000 people in our full self-driving beta program." If those numbers are accurate, that seems to be off by over 60%, so who knows what else that inaccuracy might extend to.

Later in the interview just before 1 hour mark, Elon Musk talks about how even a minute of his time could have millions of dollars impact for Tesla. Maybe he was just providing some example numbers, but he seemed to suggest Tesla weekly revenue would be about $2B/week or ~$300M/day whereas 21Q4 had total revenue just under $18B ($1.4B/week or $195M/day). Maybe those are just projections for later this year as assuming the same revenue/vehicle as 21Q4, $2B/week suggests 35k vehicles/week, which is basically 50% growth YoY.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Valuethinker »

harikaried wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 9:48 pm
randomguy wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 3:46 pmWhat is huge is the mind share of them not being leaders in EVs anymore
Wasn't it GM who led electric vehicles introducing the EV1 years ago in the 90s? Nissan Leaf had hundreds of thousands of sales before Tesla even sold a Model 3. Mind share probably helps drive additional demand such as EV superbowl ads leading to people searching for Tesla, but there is probably some actual value people desired that resulted in millions buying a Tesla over other vehicles ICE or EV.

Whether Tesla can do that for the pickup truck and other segments even if they are years or many sales behind again, we'll need to wait and see for what they end up selling.
I am not sure Nissan sold "hundreds of thousands" of Leafs?

EV1 was basically a test project. It was never a real car that people would buy and use. Bolt was GM's first true EV.

Tesla's "genius" was to attack the EV market from the top end and work down. It now faces much increased competition but it still seems to be out front in performance & technology. However other companies know a lot about producing cars in volume with reliable quality control.

(Just reading a history of Tesla. Something else they did was to bypass the dealership network. Originally car companies had this as a way of financing themselves, but it has become a big industry crutch which arguably is no longer needed, and restrains innovation, hurts customers etc. That was interesting to me).

However in the history of cars, it's not always the First Mover who wins. Ford was nothing like the first car company, and it became the largest in the world, but was then supplanted by GM.

Definitely there are some Chinese-made brands that may be able to get lower costs of production than Tesla.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by sjl333 »

One thing that is quite apparent but may not be super obvious on why Tesla will win and why spacex is winning are the passion within the employees and the high level of motivation and passion Elon is able to pass on to the employees. Many many interviews on former or current employees on YouTube at both companies. Elon musk not only talks but walks the walk. Most CEOs are just financial people with MBAs which nowadays is a joke. People respect people with knowledge and technical skill sets, not bean counters. Spacex is running laps around legacy aerospace because legacy aerospace consists of bean counters and checked out older folks with no passion . I speak from experience because I’ve worked at many legacy aerospace companies. The same goes with tesla vs legacy auto. This is one of the main reasons why tesla and spacex is winning and will continue to win .
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Ramjet »

Valuethinker wrote: Tue Apr 19, 2022 5:02 am
harikaried wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 9:48 pm
randomguy wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 3:46 pmWhat is huge is the mind share of them not being leaders in EVs anymore
Wasn't it GM who led electric vehicles introducing the EV1 years ago in the 90s? Nissan Leaf had hundreds of thousands of sales before Tesla even sold a Model 3. Mind share probably helps drive additional demand such as EV superbowl ads leading to people searching for Tesla, but there is probably some actual value people desired that resulted in millions buying a Tesla over other vehicles ICE or EV.

Whether Tesla can do that for the pickup truck and other segments even if they are years or many sales behind again, we'll need to wait and see for what they end up selling.
I am not sure Nissan sold "hundreds of thousands" of Leafs?
Cumulatively, there have been 165K Leafs sold

In Q4 of 2021: 4,165
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Valuethinker »

Ramjet wrote: Tue Apr 19, 2022 10:31 am
Valuethinker wrote: Tue Apr 19, 2022 5:02 am
harikaried wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 9:48 pm
randomguy wrote: Fri Apr 15, 2022 3:46 pmWhat is huge is the mind share of them not being leaders in EVs anymore
Wasn't it GM who led electric vehicles introducing the EV1 years ago in the 90s? Nissan Leaf had hundreds of thousands of sales before Tesla even sold a Model 3. Mind share probably helps drive additional demand such as EV superbowl ads leading to people searching for Tesla, but there is probably some actual value people desired that resulted in millions buying a Tesla over other vehicles ICE or EV.

Whether Tesla can do that for the pickup truck and other segments even if they are years or many sales behind again, we'll need to wait and see for what they end up selling.
I am not sure Nissan sold "hundreds of thousands" of Leafs?
Cumulatively, there have been 165K Leafs sold

In Q4 of 2021: 4,165
I remember Musk being quite rude about the Leaf due to its performance. I thought he was over-doing it. At that time, I think there were only about 10 Teslas in the UK (I knew one of the first owners) and there were a few Leafs that I had seen around.

In fact, he was right, and my view was incorrect.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

Ramjet wrote: Tue Apr 19, 2022 10:31 amCumulatively, there have been 165K Leafs sold
In the US or some other market? Here's an article from 2020 where it mentions Tesla will soon take the "world's #1 selling EV" title from Leaf with Model 3:

https://insideevs.com/news/393890/nissa ... es-450000/

Model 3 started selling in 2017, so it took 3 years for Tesla to catch up from behind. The same article shows the Leaf launching in 2010 and reaching 200k milestone in 2015 and 300k in 2018, so indeed there were hundreds of thousands of competitor EVs delivered by the time Model 3 launched. Will there also be hundreds of thousands of electric pickup trucks or other vehicle segment that Tesla will then need to catch up again?
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by CodeMaster »

Valuethinker wrote: Fri Apr 08, 2022 10:45 am
sjl333 wrote: Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:56 pm
CodeMaster wrote: Thu Apr 07, 2022 8:52 pm https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiwUE_2JhvY

Watch their CyberRodeo show to get idea of all going on with TSLA, its live now
Makes me so proud and happy to have all my money on this company. Legacy auto is in some deep doo doo. Mary led :sharebeer
Absolutely not the place to discuss this.

You need to be on reddit somewhere. You've got what, $1m in one stock?

This is all about low cost indexing. Buying the whole haystack. Diversifying away non-systematic stock risk.

Stock fans blow in here, and blow out here when things go wrong. Sometimes they return highly chastened. More often not, than than though.
Diversification is protection against ignorance - Buffett
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Valuethinker »

harikaried wrote: Tue Apr 19, 2022 2:31 pm
Ramjet wrote: Tue Apr 19, 2022 10:31 amCumulatively, there have been 165K Leafs sold
In the US or some other market? Here's an article from 2020 where it mentions Tesla will soon take the "world's #1 selling EV" title from Leaf with Model 3:

https://insideevs.com/news/393890/nissa ... es-450000/

Model 3 started selling in 2017, so it took 3 years for Tesla to catch up from behind. The same article shows the Leaf launching in 2010 and reaching 200k milestone in 2015 and 300k in 2018, so indeed there were hundreds of thousands of competitor EVs delivered by the time Model 3 launched. Will there also be hundreds of thousands of electric pickup trucks or other vehicle segment that Tesla will then need to catch up again?
"catch up"

BMW is the world's most profitable public car company per EUR 1.00 of sales, last time I looked. It is nothing like the world's largest car company by volume.

It's not how many Teslas they sell, it is how much money they make.

As we saw with stellar internet stocks like Ebay, Paypal, Google etc, eventually the market wants to see profitability, not just growth.

Tesla may be able to create valuable recurring revenues eg from upgrades to existing Tesla fleet. That would put it a leap ahead of other car companies.

Market share growth for market share's stake will eventually run out of runway.

There's no doubt that other carmakers are putting huge resources into EVs. However Tesla appears to have a technological lead.

Brand loyalty is good, but it's also fickle. A bad model year w Tesla, or some horrific accidents, or some behaviour by senior management that brings the company into ill repute ... The VW scandal was huge, and multi-year in its commission, but really hurt the brand.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Ramjet »

harikaried wrote: Tue Apr 19, 2022 2:31 pm
Ramjet wrote: Tue Apr 19, 2022 10:31 amCumulatively, there have been 165K Leafs sold
In the US or some other market? Here's an article from 2020 where it mentions Tesla will soon take the "world's #1 selling EV" title from Leaf with Model 3:

https://insideevs.com/news/393890/nissa ... es-450000/

Model 3 started selling in 2017, so it took 3 years for Tesla to catch up from behind. The same article shows the Leaf launching in 2010 and reaching 200k milestone in 2015 and 300k in 2018, so indeed there were hundreds of thousands of competitor EVs delivered by the time Model 3 launched. Will there also be hundreds of thousands of electric pickup trucks or other vehicle segment that Tesla will then need to catch up again?
Cumulatively sold in the U.S.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

Valuethinker wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 5:02 am It's not how many Teslas they sell, it is how much money they make.
This is one of the hardest concept for the bears to grasp. People arguing that Tesla has to sell the entire auto fleet miss the point Tesla makes much more per vehicle sold (at point of sale and ongoing) than others. Then it's also hard to grasp exponential growth of revenue and earnings at this scale for car manufacturing as well as the potential of future revenues.

Then what the bulls fail to realize is that it's unlikely Tesla sells 20M+ cars a year at $50k+ asp which a fair amount of models suggest. Maybe if inflation persists, $50k is the new $35k car and other OEMs fail to scale in 2030, then it could be accurate. There's just far too many variables to make 10 year models and be correct.

Like most things, reality likely lies in between.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by firebirdparts »

I don't think price is really the problem, but of course it's not up to me. 20 million cars a year is 20X growth from where we are today. That's a lot. It's bout a 100X jump from running NUMMI flat out, so they've covered a lot of ground since then.
This time is the same
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

What changed? Page 19 has a good example, latest earnings release

https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/static/IOSH ... ate.pdf%22
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

Valuethinker wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 5:02 amBMW is the world's most profitable public car company per EUR 1.00 of sales, last time I looked
Where did you see that? I'm not really sure if this website is accurate or how they got these numbers, but it seems to show BMW with a "net margin" of 10.20% in 21Q3:
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... fit-margin

While Tesla 21Q4 shows 10.25% "net margin." https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... fit-margin

That site does show 12.12% operating margin for December 31, 2021 TTM which does match up with Tesla's reported 2021 numbers of 12.1% or for just 21Q4 14.7%. The new 22Q1 earnings report from today shows that margin increasing to 19.2%. Tesla even included a graph:
Image

Looking at just automotive gross margin, this past quarter it has jumped up to 32.9% for Tesla (i.e., 32.9¢ profit per $1 sold). This is from 310,048 total deliveries and $16,861M automotive revenue, so that's average revenue $54k/vehicle and nearly $18k profit per vehicle.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by sjl333 »

All the tesla bears on this thread should take a good look at the tesla Q1 2022 numbers. It is astonishing to me how wrong you guys are about Tesla and how little understanding you guys have about tesla. Google tesla IR to download their quarterly results .
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

:sharebeer
sjl333 wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 4:29 pm All the tesla bears on this thread should take a good look at the tesla Q1 2022 numbers. It is astonishing to me how wrong you guys are about Tesla and how little understanding you guys have about tesla. Google tesla IR to download their quarterly results .
I posted the letter, listening to conference call now.
Another interesting graphic they showed is how many orders they got after the superbowl. Their advertising programs must be working!
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by GP813 »

1,500,000 cars this year will be produced globally according to Musk. That's a phenomenal ramp up in production for Tesla. Toyota has some interesting electric vehicle designs but will only deliver them in the thousands Lexus all electric RX will have around 6k units to America and the Toyota BZ4x will only 7,000. Tesla is racing ahead.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by wander »

GP813 wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 4:54 pm 1,500,000 cars this year will be produced globally according to Musk. That's a phenomenal ramp up in production for Tesla. Toyota has some interesting electric vehicle designs but will only deliver them in the thousands Lexus all electric RX will have around 6k units to America and the Toyota BZ4x will only 7,000. Tesla is racing ahead.
+1. I like the Lexuses but the estimated 225 miles range is no where near where I plan to drop serious money for a car right now.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

Elon just said that the real time feedback loop that Tesla drivers might have access to cause them to drive safer! Another thing that changed.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

harikaried wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 4:15 pm Looking at just automotive gross margin, this past quarter it has jumped up to 32.9% for Tesla (i.e., 32.9¢ profit per $1 sold). This is from 310,048 total deliveries and $16,861M automotive revenue, so that's average revenue $54k/vehicle and nearly $18k profit per vehicle.
To be fair, that automotive gross margin is with regulatory credits. Taking it out is 30% which is still darn good.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Valuethinker »

firebirdparts wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 9:13 am I don't think price is really the problem, but of course it's not up to me. 20 million cars a year is 20X growth from where we are today. That's a lot. It's bout a 100X jump from running NUMMI flat out, so they've covered a lot of ground since then.
It would also be 1/5th of the world car market.

For a car costing at least $35k?
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Valuethinker »

harikaried wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 4:15 pm
Valuethinker wrote: Wed Apr 20, 2022 5:02 amBMW is the world's most profitable public car company per EUR 1.00 of sales, last time I looked
Where did you see that? I'm not really sure if this website is accurate or how they got these numbers, but it seems to show BMW with a "net margin" of 10.20% in 21Q3:
[/quote]

I was quoting the BMW margin (from memory) historically. It's always been the car maker that stood out there in terms of margin.

If Tesla can sustainably beat that then they should be able to make money.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Semantics »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Apr 14, 2022 11:19 pm They are priced to own 50% of the car market in the world right now. If they don't pick up the low-end car market or the pickup truck market, they lose.

Tesla is worth $1 trillion.

Toyota is worth $231 billion
BYD (China) is worth $100 billion
Volkswagon is worth $100 billion
Mercedes-Benz is worth $73 billion
Ford is worth $62 billion
General Motors is worth $58 billion
BMW is worth $53 billion
Honda is worth $44 billion.

I'm still not to $1 trillion. I could keep going. Tesla is currently priced at more than the other top 17 car companies COMBINED.

They have to be the best at all categories to justify that price. Losing on trucks will indeed hurt them long-term.

It's really insane, the pricing.
No, they're priced to own 50% of the future PROFITS in the car market (assuming no other businesses like insurance). Not to beat a dead horse, but they are vastly more efficient than anyone else at manufacturing and selling cars.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

Tesla has had virtually no competition up to now, a testament to Musk and them basically creating the industry. However, competition is heating up now and EV is mainstream, the exponential growth story is not so certain from here unless they manage to pull off autonomous driving and robo-taxis. If they do that it is a whole different ballgame.
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