I'd love to see where you got data that batteries are getting 10% more efficient year over year. The most optimistic estimate I can find in a Google search is "about 5%", and that is a random estimate based upon total improvements in the last few years and projected estimates in the next few. Check back a decade ago on the efficiency of batteries in the Tesla Model S and the Nissan Leaf, those numbers don't remotely add up.finite_difference wrote: ↑Sat Apr 23, 2022 8:34 am10% more efficient per year means it gets cheaper every year because you can use less material.stoptothink wrote: ↑Sat Apr 23, 2022 6:15 amDid I say a single anything about battery efficiency Several car manufacturer execs have recently come out saying there are a few barriers to EVs dominating the car market in the U.S. (at least in the near future). They (and I) were referring primarily to two things: cost of batteries (therefore total cost of production) and charging issues (among several things, it's difficult or impossible to do at home for a large segment of the population, especially in densely-populated areas). Those are the "technological breakthroughs" I was referring to, and there doesn't seem to be a solid answers to those issues (at least not now, and for the entirety of the U.S. car-buying market). The infrastructure concerns are a totally different animal.finite_difference wrote: ↑Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:34 amThat’s just not true. Every year batteries get about 10% more efficient. As we know from finance, 10% every year compounds very quickly. No “major breakthrough” is needed. That’s your hyperbole right there.stoptothink wrote: ↑Thu Apr 21, 2022 1:42 pmhttps://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a3962 ... e-cheaper/CletusCaddy wrote: ↑Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:06 am
Is that why every major auto manufacturer has announced they will be selling only EVs by the 2030s?
https://www.motorious.com/articles/news ... tric-cars/
Hyperbole much? Not every manufacturer is committed solely to EVs by 2030. If your statement comes to fruition, I'll be very happy that these executives were wrong. For now, manufacturers can make all the empty promises they want to (something Musk is a master at), it does not change the fact that EVs are simply a lot more expensive to produce.
I am very pro-EV, but for EVs to dominate the market (even by 2030) there has to be some major infrastructure change and technological breakthroughs regarding batteries, otherwise consumers will just have to accept that their vehicles will cost more.
The billions of phones and other handheld devices are all helping to make battery technology more and more efficient.
Can you imagine if ICE cars got 10% more efficient every year? In that scenario, EVs would have a hard time. But ICE efficiency has pretty been stalled for a while now.
Batteries make EVs cost more to produce than directly comparable ICE vehicles and therefore are/will cost more to consumers (at least upfront). I initially pointed that out in support of companies producing EVs (because someone asked why EVs cost more than comparable ICE vehicles if TESLA is more efficient than other established car manufacturers), I am confused why three posters now have attempted to twist my words to debate that incontrovertible fact.
Several car manufacturing execs, who run companies who are currently producing or developing EVs, disagree that the overall cost of EV production will be comparable to ICE anytime in the near future. I posted links to statements from two, only those because they occurred within the last few weeks. I agree with them because I have seen zero evidence to the contrary yet, you are free not to.
The proliferation of EVs has dramatically increased in the last decade and the tech has certainly advanced, yet the upfront cost differential between directly comparable EV and ICE vehicles has (if anything) become larger in that time period. Certainly that is, in part to focusing on increasing range, but where is the tipping point as to when that converts to cheaper overall production costs? Show me the evidence that overall production price is (or will be) coming down in comparison to ICE vehicles; I absolutely want it to be true.