TSLA: What Changed?

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stoptothink
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by stoptothink »

finite_difference wrote: Sat Apr 23, 2022 8:34 am
stoptothink wrote: Sat Apr 23, 2022 6:15 am
finite_difference wrote: Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:34 am
stoptothink wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 1:42 pm
CletusCaddy wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 7:06 am

Is that why every major auto manufacturer has announced they will be selling only EVs by the 2030s?
https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a3962 ... e-cheaper/
https://www.motorious.com/articles/news ... tric-cars/

Hyperbole much? Not every manufacturer is committed solely to EVs by 2030. If your statement comes to fruition, I'll be very happy that these executives were wrong. For now, manufacturers can make all the empty promises they want to (something Musk is a master at), it does not change the fact that EVs are simply a lot more expensive to produce.

I am very pro-EV, but for EVs to dominate the market (even by 2030) there has to be some major infrastructure change and technological breakthroughs regarding batteries, otherwise consumers will just have to accept that their vehicles will cost more.
That’s just not true. Every year batteries get about 10% more efficient. As we know from finance, 10% every year compounds very quickly. No “major breakthrough” is needed. That’s your hyperbole right there.

The billions of phones and other handheld devices are all helping to make battery technology more and more efficient.

Can you imagine if ICE cars got 10% more efficient every year? In that scenario, EVs would have a hard time. But ICE efficiency has pretty been stalled for a while now.
Did I say a single anything about battery efficiency :confused Several car manufacturer execs have recently come out saying there are a few barriers to EVs dominating the car market in the U.S. (at least in the near future). They (and I) were referring primarily to two things: cost of batteries (therefore total cost of production) and charging issues (among several things, it's difficult or impossible to do at home for a large segment of the population, especially in densely-populated areas). Those are the "technological breakthroughs" I was referring to, and there doesn't seem to be a solid answers to those issues (at least not now, and for the entirety of the U.S. car-buying market). The infrastructure concerns are a totally different animal.

Batteries make EVs cost more to produce than directly comparable ICE vehicles and therefore are/will cost more to consumers (at least upfront). I initially pointed that out in support of companies producing EVs (because someone asked why EVs cost more than comparable ICE vehicles if TESLA is more efficient than other established car manufacturers), I am confused why three posters now have attempted to twist my words to debate that incontrovertible fact.
10% more efficient per year means it gets cheaper every year because you can use less material.
I'd love to see where you got data that batteries are getting 10% more efficient year over year. The most optimistic estimate I can find in a Google search is "about 5%", and that is a random estimate based upon total improvements in the last few years and projected estimates in the next few. Check back a decade ago on the efficiency of batteries in the Tesla Model S and the Nissan Leaf, those numbers don't remotely add up.

Several car manufacturing execs, who run companies who are currently producing or developing EVs, disagree that the overall cost of EV production will be comparable to ICE anytime in the near future. I posted links to statements from two, only those because they occurred within the last few weeks. I agree with them because I have seen zero evidence to the contrary yet, you are free not to.

The proliferation of EVs has dramatically increased in the last decade and the tech has certainly advanced, yet the upfront cost differential between directly comparable EV and ICE vehicles has (if anything) become larger in that time period. Certainly that is, in part to focusing on increasing range, but where is the tipping point as to when that converts to cheaper overall production costs? Show me the evidence that overall production price is (or will be) coming down in comparison to ICE vehicles; I absolutely want it to be true.
Last edited by stoptothink on Sat Apr 23, 2022 11:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
oragne lovre
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by oragne lovre »

HomerJ wrote: Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:14 am
oragne lovre wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:05 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 12:50 pm
GP813 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:50 am Right now GM and Ford's most profitable vehicles are ICE trucks with a lot of accessories. To win the EV future they will have to erode or cannibalize that business and everything associated with it, all while their investors are patient enough or have the conviction they will win the future with EVs. How likely is that to happen?

Tesla is starting with a clean slate, their is no legacy business to untangle. I can also envision Tesla being like Apple, they have their cult followers with extreme brand loyalty because the cars are about the entire experience since Tesla makes the chips, app store, batteries, software, design, direct to consumer(no dealer network) and electric charging network so the whole experience integrates together. The legacy automakers are going to depends on someone like Nvidia or NXP Semi to make their chips, Google or Blackberry to make their software, the various battery makers to partner with them or make their batteries, dealerships who have a conflict of interest to sell EVs, third party charging networks who are in business for themselves, etc.

I remember this argument being used against Apple. Sure Apple had the head-start in smartphones but now Google is coming or Microsoft(lol), the Chinese brands are going to beat them etc but it never materialized. It never materialized because of the way Apple puts everything together so that even if you have a better spec'd Android phone it performs worse, and none of the phone-makers who compete against Apple make money all the ways that Apple does. You buy a Samsung phone and you use the Google Play store so Samsung is not making the same money Apple is. I see Tesla following a very similar blueprint to what Apple did with smartphones. They don't need to be the market share leader if they produce the car that actually makes more money and all the services and purchases you use associated with that car goes back to Tesla.
Phones are different from cars

Ecosystem is important for phones, you use them all the time throughout the day and they essentially store your life

There is no sticky moat for cars.
I'm not sure if you a Tesla "car" owner or not. My personal experience with Tesla "cars" is quite not like what I've had with my old faithful Toyota Camry. My Tesla "cars" have become more like my personal "mobile dens". I can manage work when I'm in a Tesla without increasing the risks of distraction from commuting. I can relax myself in it with HD streaming music. I can watch movies in it when I have some downtime, waiting to pick up my children. I can enjoy my hobby, which is learning foreign languages, through available Tesla media. I can get cozy during cold evenings by turning on electronic "fireplace" to get warm while listening to favorite music tunes, etc. In other words, I can efficiently manage the time while in a Tesla. And of course, it can get me from point A to point B. All these experiences make me ask myself questions

"Is Tesla a car or a smart phone or a personal computer on 4 wheels?"

"Is Tesla really a car company?"

"Is Tesla ecosystem as the same as that of Apple or different from that of Apple?"
Everything you wrote there I can do with my phone in my old Honda. I see nothing special in ANYTHING you wrote. Very weird. You can listen to music? You can watch a movie or get on Duo-Lingo while parked waiting to pick up your kids? Your Tesla has heat? I have no idea what point you are trying to make.
My old faithful Camry is still with me and I can compare the two different vehicles. My point is a Tesla may not be just a "car"; it has become more an "iPhone on 4-wheel". Many drivers don't care about other features; they just want a reliable personal transportation tool. For weird folks like myself, who somehow prefer and need other features to help self learn, relax, work efficiently throughout the days, a "phone on 4-wheel" may be handy.

Can you look up information on Wikipedia in your Honda? Can you directly stream Youtube movies onto your Honda screen? I cannot with my old Camry.
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Nathan Drake
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

oragne lovre wrote: Sat Apr 23, 2022 10:21 am
HomerJ wrote: Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:14 am
oragne lovre wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:05 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 12:50 pm
GP813 wrote: Thu Apr 21, 2022 11:50 am Right now GM and Ford's most profitable vehicles are ICE trucks with a lot of accessories. To win the EV future they will have to erode or cannibalize that business and everything associated with it, all while their investors are patient enough or have the conviction they will win the future with EVs. How likely is that to happen?

Tesla is starting with a clean slate, their is no legacy business to untangle. I can also envision Tesla being like Apple, they have their cult followers with extreme brand loyalty because the cars are about the entire experience since Tesla makes the chips, app store, batteries, software, design, direct to consumer(no dealer network) and electric charging network so the whole experience integrates together. The legacy automakers are going to depends on someone like Nvidia or NXP Semi to make their chips, Google or Blackberry to make their software, the various battery makers to partner with them or make their batteries, dealerships who have a conflict of interest to sell EVs, third party charging networks who are in business for themselves, etc.

I remember this argument being used against Apple. Sure Apple had the head-start in smartphones but now Google is coming or Microsoft(lol), the Chinese brands are going to beat them etc but it never materialized. It never materialized because of the way Apple puts everything together so that even if you have a better spec'd Android phone it performs worse, and none of the phone-makers who compete against Apple make money all the ways that Apple does. You buy a Samsung phone and you use the Google Play store so Samsung is not making the same money Apple is. I see Tesla following a very similar blueprint to what Apple did with smartphones. They don't need to be the market share leader if they produce the car that actually makes more money and all the services and purchases you use associated with that car goes back to Tesla.
Phones are different from cars

Ecosystem is important for phones, you use them all the time throughout the day and they essentially store your life

There is no sticky moat for cars.
I'm not sure if you a Tesla "car" owner or not. My personal experience with Tesla "cars" is quite not like what I've had with my old faithful Toyota Camry. My Tesla "cars" have become more like my personal "mobile dens". I can manage work when I'm in a Tesla without increasing the risks of distraction from commuting. I can relax myself in it with HD streaming music. I can watch movies in it when I have some downtime, waiting to pick up my children. I can enjoy my hobby, which is learning foreign languages, through available Tesla media. I can get cozy during cold evenings by turning on electronic "fireplace" to get warm while listening to favorite music tunes, etc. In other words, I can efficiently manage the time while in a Tesla. And of course, it can get me from point A to point B. All these experiences make me ask myself questions

"Is Tesla a car or a smart phone or a personal computer on 4 wheels?"

"Is Tesla really a car company?"

"Is Tesla ecosystem as the same as that of Apple or different from that of Apple?"
Everything you wrote there I can do with my phone in my old Honda. I see nothing special in ANYTHING you wrote. Very weird. You can listen to music? You can watch a movie or get on Duo-Lingo while parked waiting to pick up your kids? Your Tesla has heat? I have no idea what point you are trying to make.
My old faithful Camry is still with me and I can compare the two different vehicles. My point is a Tesla may not be just a "car"; it has become more an "iPhone on 4-wheel". Many drivers don't care about other features; they just want a reliable personal transportation tool. For weird folks like myself, who somehow prefer and need other features to help self learn, relax, work efficiently throughout the days, a "phone on 4-wheel" may be handy.

Can you look up information on Wikipedia in your Honda? Can you directly stream Youtube movies onto your Honda screen? I cannot with my old Camry.
I have a phone or tablet that can do those things, which I can plug into my vehicle

Why do I natively need my car to do that? Why would I pay $50-60k for this non-essential feature?
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randomguy
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by randomguy »

Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Apr 23, 2022 1:48 pm I have a phone or tablet that can do those things, which I can plug into my vehicle

Why do I natively need my car to do that? Why would I pay $50-60k for this non-essential feature?
Pretty much all these features are in any modern car. The exception is playing videos which is easy to do but most makers consider it a safety issue and will not do it when driving. Telsa isn't going to get a competitive advantage from the ability to play podcasts... The EV battles are going to be won based on building the best car not fluff..
Nysoz
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

HomerJ wrote: Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:19 am
Nysoz wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 7:42 am EVs are much cheaper to own and operate than ICE. The problem is what people compare as equivalents. Some people compare the Tesla Model 3 to an entry level BMW 3 series and others a Toyota Corolla. There are cheaper options out there like the Nissan Leaf.

Then it's market and home charging dependent with local gas and electricity prices with how much someone drives. Personally I was able to go from $250 in gas to $20 in electricity a month (and this was in 2019 before current gas price increases and now would be closer to $400-450). Also factor in no oil changes and essentially no brake pad costs for the vast life of the vehicle and EVs win out easily at comparable initial starting purchase price. This doesn't consider all the other moving parts in an ICE system that can need repair/replacement.
Except the car costs you $20,000 more, so it takes you 6-7 years to break even from all the "savings".

It's okay to own a Tesla, but it doesn't actually save you money.
It depends on your comparable. If you compare the Model 3 to a Camry or an Elantra, sure it costs $20k more. If you compare it to the 3 series or my wife's CLA 250, it costs about the same amount up front and costs less to maintain and operate. The semantics of performance and aesthetics are all personal preference.

Also, not sure how others have held up but I bought my Model 3 3 years ago for $51k and got $4k federal rebate. Put 50k miles on it and now selling it for $47k. I still love the car, just don't need a 2 car household anymore. Unique times for sure.
impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Elon's buying twitter will have real implications on TSLA stock. TSLA valuation is dependent on sentiments of people. And that will be impacted with what happens with Twitter. What happens on twitter ends up on news, drives lead news on NYTimes and other outlets..

Twitter brings lot of scrutiny from right, left + govts. Many people will be unhappy with whatever Elon does with Twitter. Eg: Former Pres coming back. or hate speech, bullying, another Jan 6th type event or riot from other side - having links in Twitter. Any of this will get major scrutiny..

And how much worse can Elon himself become on Twitter.. This was from Friday..
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by firebirdparts »

impatientInv wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 2:42 pm Elon's buying twitter will have real implications on TSLA stock.
I bet you're right about this, but I have no skin in the game. It doesn't matter what I think. I don't own a Tesla nor the stock. But I think the world now has a South African free speech champion, you're about to see some quality drama.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by vasaver »

Nysoz wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 5:27 am
HomerJ wrote: Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:19 am
Nysoz wrote: Fri Apr 22, 2022 7:42 am EVs are much cheaper to own and operate than ICE. The problem is what people compare as equivalents. Some people compare the Tesla Model 3 to an entry level BMW 3 series and others a Toyota Corolla. There are cheaper options out there like the Nissan Leaf.

Then it's market and home charging dependent with local gas and electricity prices with how much someone drives. Personally I was able to go from $250 in gas to $20 in electricity a month (and this was in 2019 before current gas price increases and now would be closer to $400-450). Also factor in no oil changes and essentially no brake pad costs for the vast life of the vehicle and EVs win out easily at comparable initial starting purchase price. This doesn't consider all the other moving parts in an ICE system that can need repair/replacement.
Except the car costs you $20,000 more, so it takes you 6-7 years to break even from all the "savings".

It's okay to own a Tesla, but it doesn't actually save you money.
It depends on your comparable. If you compare the Model 3 to a Camry or an Elantra, sure it costs $20k more. If you compare it to the 3 series or my wife's CLA 250, it costs about the same amount up front and costs less to maintain and operate. The semantics of performance and aesthetics are all personal preference.

Also, not sure how others have held up but I bought my Model 3 3 years ago for $51k and got $4k federal rebate. Put 50k miles on it and now selling it for $47k. I still love the car, just don't need a 2 car household anymore. Unique times for sure.
Nysoz - What are the odds you could buy a new one today and sell it for what you paid for it in 2025? Looking back is a little different than looking forward...
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Yesterdaysnews
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

Twitter is peanuts for guy himself worth $200B... he will probably just appoint one of his buddies to run it.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 3:00 pm Twitter is peanuts for guy himself worth $200B... he will probably just appoint one of his buddies to run it.
Not really peanuts, but he can obviously afford it
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by iamlucky13 »

finite_difference wrote: Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:34 am That’s just not true. Every year batteries get about 10% more efficient. As we know from finance, 10% every year compounds very quickly. No “major breakthrough” is needed.
That is not correct. Efficiency of lithium ion batteries barely changes. It's not even possible for lithium battery efficiency to grow by 10%, since normal charge-discharge efficiency is already well over 90%.

It's not even true that battery capacity grows by 10% per year.

The top-performing lithium ion battery at the time the Model S entered production in 2012 was the Panasonic NCR18650B, with a 3400mAh capacity.

Although Tesla and others are now moving forward with different cell sizes like 21700 and 46800, 18650 remains the most widely available size, and battery manufacturers have continued to update the form factor as they develop improvements. The current leading cell of the same size is the Panasonic NCR18650G, with a capacity of 3600mAh. It's still not widely available.

So 10 years, 5.9% growth, for annualized capacity growth of 0.57%.

Even during their much-hyped battery-day presentation back in 2020, Tesla gave mixed indications regarding capacity, although they avoided explicitly saying anything negative. The details they shared about their upcoming 46800 size cell were for a battery 5.5 times the physical volume of the 21700 cells, but with 5 times the capacity. It was my assumption this 10% discrepancy was due to rounding down for the non-technical audience, not an admission of capacity compromises in their drive to lower cost, but I don't know for certain.

And it is critical to emphasize that this is capacity, not efficiency. They made the "gas tank" 5.9% bigger, not increased how far you go per gallon or kWh. Now just to be clear, Tesla has actually done both, but the efficiency improvements have come from aerodynamic refinements and improvements in electrical systems in the car, not from making the batteries more efficient.

The figure of most interest for EV viability hasn't been battery capacity or efficiency, but cost. That aspect actually has seen over 10% improvement per year - right about 20% according to Bloomberg's alternative energy analysis group from 2010 to 2021.

That goes a really long way toward making widespread adoption of EV's viable. However, the pace of cost reductions is slowing as economies of scale are realized. Over the last 4 years, the reduction has been 13% per year, and the current forecast is 6% per year through 2030.

On a hopeful note, past forecasts have turned out to be conservative, and the forecast is still a significant further cost reduction, but the total value left to be saved is also decreasing. The current base trim Model 3 has a roughly 60 kWh battery pack. Using the industry-wide average cost (which Tesla supposedly beats), the cheapest Model 3 battery pack should cost Tesla about $8,000 to make. The forecast 2030 battery price should bring that down a little under $5,000.

That would take the cheapest Tesla from being a $47,000 car to being a $44,000 car. While welcome, a Honda Civic is basically the same size, and costs $22,000 less to buy. While lifetime fuel-cost savings would be almost able to erase that savings, that's a tough sell in a market where most customers buy based on the monthly payment, not the total cost of ownership.

I actually agree that no major breakthrough is needed, but it's still clear that EV prices have to keep coming down, and it can't just come from battery price reductions, although that is probably still the single most important opportunity for cost reductions.
finite_difference wrote: Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:45 am I think Toyota and Honda have the best engineering for ICE cars in the world. However, ICE is dead technology. It’s going to be hard for them to retrain all those ICE engineers in EV. There’s a lot inefficiency involved, and they are probably hesitant to layoff the entire workforce on those product lines.
As Tesla learned the hard way, only a small proportion of the engineering work involved in creating a new automobile design and standing up the production system for it is drivetrain-specific. Tesla managed to do it starting from effectively zero. Toyota will be doing it starting from the position of the leading hybrid-electric manufacturer.

The competitive phase of the EV transition has not yet arrived. Tesla made it through the most difficult phase of their part of it, and I think will be one of the major players in the automotive market for the foreseeable future, but far from the only one.
Last edited by iamlucky13 on Mon Apr 25, 2022 9:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by iamlucky13 »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 3:00 pm Twitter is peanuts for guy himself worth $200B... he will probably just appoint one of his buddies to run it.
About a decade after I started following SpaceX, Musk more clearly stated something intriguing that he had been hinting at for years:
The main reason I’m personally accumulating assets is to fund this [making humanity a multi-planet species.]
I don't get the impression that consideration was very much in mind when he decided to buy Twitter.

And I have some skepticism Twitter will continue to further grow significantly in value.

Oh well...
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by LadyGeek »

This forum maintains a family-friendly environment - things you can say in front of the little ones. Not just for language, but subject matter.

I removed a twitter post image which related to an "adult" topic. (The language was fine.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by finite_difference »

iamlucky13 wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 6:11 pm
finite_difference wrote: Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:34 am That’s just not true. Every year batteries get about 10% more efficient. As we know from finance, 10% every year compounds very quickly. No “major breakthrough” is needed.
That is not correct. Efficiency of lithium ion batteries barely changes. It's not even possible for lithium battery efficiency to grow by 10%, since normal charge-discharge efficiency is already well over 90%.

It's not even true that battery capacity grows by 10% per year.

The top-performing lithium ion battery at the time the Model S entered production in 2012 was the Panasonic NCR18650B, with a 3400mAh capacity.

Although Tesla and others are now moving forward with different cell sizes like 21700 and 46800, 18650 remains the most widely available size, and battery manufacturers have continued to update the form factor as they develop improvements. The current leading cell of the same size is the Panasonic NCR18650G, with a capacity of 3600mAh. It's still not widely available.

So 10 years, 5.9% growth, for annualized capacity growth of 0.57%.

Even during their much-hyped battery-day presentation back in 2020, Tesla gave mixed indications regarding capacity, although they avoided explicitly saying anything negative. The details they shared about their upcoming 46800 size cell were for a battery 5.5 times the physical volume of the 21700 cells, but with 5 times the capacity. It was my assumption this 10% discrepancy was due to rounding down for the non-technical audience, not an admission of capacity compromises in their drive to lower cost, but I don't know for certain.

And it is critical to emphasize that this is capacity, not efficiency. They made the "gas tank" 5.9% bigger, not increased how far you go per gallon or kWh. Now just to be clear, Tesla has actually done both, but the efficiency improvements have come from aerodynamic refinements and improvements in electrical systems in the car, not from making the batteries more efficient.

The figure of most interest for EV viability hasn't been battery capacity or efficiency, but cost. That aspect actually has seen over 10% improvement per year - right about 20% according to Bloomberg's alternative energy analysis group from 2010 to 2021.

That goes a really long way toward making widespread adoption of EV's viable. However, the pace of cost reductions is slowing as economies of scale are realized. Over the last 4 years, the reduction has been 13% per year, and the current forecast is 6% per year through 2030.

On a hopeful note, past forecasts have turned out to be conservative, and the forecast is still a significant further cost reduction, but the total value left to be saved is also decreasing. The current base trim Model 3 has a roughly 60 kWh battery pack. Using the industry-wide average cost (which Tesla supposedly beats), the cheapest Model 3 battery pack should cost Tesla about $8,000 to make. The forecast 2030 battery price should bring that down a little under $5,000.

That would take the cheapest Tesla from being a $47,000 car to being a $44,000 car. While welcome, a Honda Civic is basically the same size, and costs $22,000 less to buy. While lifetime fuel-cost savings would be almost able to erase that savings, that's a tough sell in a market where most customers buy based on the monthly payment, not the total cost of ownership.

I actually agree that no major breakthrough is needed, but it's still clear that EV prices have to keep coming down, and it can't just come from battery price reductions, although that is probably still the single most important opportunity for cost reductions.
finite_difference wrote: Sat Apr 23, 2022 12:45 am I think Toyota and Honda have the best engineering for ICE cars in the world. However, ICE is dead technology. It’s going to be hard for them to retrain all those ICE engineers in EV. There’s a lot inefficiency involved, and they are probably hesitant to layoff the entire workforce on those product lines.
As Tesla learned the hard way, only a small proportion of the engineering work involved in creating a new automobile design and standing up the production system for it is drivetrain-specific. Tesla managed to do it starting from effectively zero. Toyota will be doing it starting from the position of the leading hybrid-electric manufacturer.

The competitive phase of the EV transition has not yet arrived. Tesla made it through the most difficult phase of their part of it, and I think will be one of the major players in the automotive market for the foreseeable future, but far from the only one.
“ A lot can be done—and a lot has been done—to make a better lithium-ion battery. In fact, gains in the amount of energy they can store have been on the order of five percent per year. That means that the capacity of your current batteries is over 1.5 times what they would have held a decade ago.”

OK let me be more precise. Energy storage of lithium batteries has been going up 5% per year.

However, EV cars become more efficient because the batteries get lighter.

Also, the price of lithium batteries has been falling drastically over the past decade. From today, even if the price of batteries “only” falls by 6% per year, that’s a lot of savings.

By comparison, ICE has made basically zero progress. The technology is basically as good as it gets after 100 years of development.

Tesla did have a $35,000 Model 3. It was just not as a profitable to sell. I think Tesla will release a cheaper ~$35k model this decade though.

You can get a Mustang Mach E for $36k after the Federal rebate, which has a 70 kWh battery.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/05 ... your-nose/
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by iamlucky13 »

finite_difference wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 10:55 pm
iamlucky13 wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 6:11 pm (quote excerpted due to length - click the arrow to jump to the original)
“ A lot can be done—and a lot has been done—to make a better lithium-ion battery. In fact, gains in the amount of energy they can store have been on the order of five percent per year. That means that the capacity of your current batteries is over 1.5 times what they would have held a decade ago.”

OK let me be more precise. Energy storage of lithium batteries has been going up 5% per year.

However, EV cars become more efficient because the batteries get lighter.

Also, the price of lithium batteries has been falling drastically over the past decade. From today, even if the price of batteries “only” falls by 6% per year, that’s a lot of savings.

By comparison, ICE has made basically zero progress. The technology is basically as good as it gets after 100 years of development.

Tesla did have a $35,000 Model 3. It was just not as a profitable to sell. I think Tesla will release a cheaper ~$35k model this decade though.

You can get a Mustang Mach E for $36k after the Federal rebate, which has a 70 kWh battery.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/05 ... your-nose/
Unfortunately, Ars Technica is wrong on this, at least at face value, as I evidenced in my post. If that claim was accurate, it should be possible to find an 18650-sized cell with 5,000 mAh of capacity, or a 21700-sized cell with 7,500 mAh of capacity, but they don't exist.

They might be right if discussing energy storage capcity at a given power output level, as I would say that has improved by roughly 1.5x over the last decade, but that's not the claim they made, and peak power was not the limiting factor for EV's even a decade ago.

There is continuous ongoing work on battery capacity improvements, and hopefully we'll get to see that bear continuing fruit, but the current outlook is that the widespread adoption of EV's will be primarily driven by cost reductions for the whole vehicle, rather than battery capacity improvements.

Fortunately, cost improvements for at least the batteries have been been real and significant. I do think Tesla will some day actually make a $35,000 sedan, as opposed to just selling one briefly for a loss at that price, especially under pressure from competitors.

There actually have been ongoing meaningful improvements in ICE's, but that's rather beside my point, so I won't bother wasting page space on it in this thread.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

vasaver wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 2:53 pm
Nysoz wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 5:27 am It depends on your comparable. If you compare the Model 3 to a Camry or an Elantra, sure it costs $20k more. If you compare it to the 3 series or my wife's CLA 250, it costs about the same amount up front and costs less to maintain and operate. The semantics of performance and aesthetics are all personal preference.

Also, not sure how others have held up but I bought my Model 3 3 years ago for $51k and got $4k federal rebate. Put 50k miles on it and now selling it for $47k. I still love the car, just don't need a 2 car household anymore. Unique times for sure.
Nysoz - What are the odds you could buy a new one today and sell it for what you paid for it in 2025? Looking back is a little different than looking forward...
Highly unlikely unless inflationary pressures continue or the car is bought with FSD, and that option in the future costs significantly more due to autonomous driving being solved. Both are improbable but possible.

I did say unique times for sure.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by GP813 »

GM delivered less than 500 EV's last quarter. Tesla delivered 310,048.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by vasaver »

GP813 wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:15 pm GM delivered less than 500 EV's last quarter. Tesla delivered 310,048.
BYD sold 143,224 with 271% growth vs Tesla's 68% growth.
VW sold 99,100 with 65.2% growth...
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by GP813 »

vasaver wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:51 pm
GP813 wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 3:15 pm GM delivered less than 500 EV's last quarter. Tesla delivered 310,048.
BYD sold 143,224 with 271% growth vs Tesla's 68% growth.
VW sold 99,100 with 65.2% growth...
BYD is a great company for China. VW will always have a huge presence in Europe because of now nationalistic the Germans are with the car industry but I don't know anybody who would by a VW electric after the "diesel-gate" shenanigans they pulled. Maybe the VW van will get some buzz but VW sullied their reputation with a lot of people.

Tesla has 75% of The United States electric car market and I don't think they even need to have the majority as I have stated, their integration of the entire ecosystem versus what the other legacy automakers are doing leaves them with tremendous advantages.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

firebirdparts wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 2:51 pm
impatientInv wrote: Mon Apr 25, 2022 2:42 pm Elon's buying twitter will have real implications on TSLA stock. TSLA valuation is dependent on sentiments of people. And that will be impacted with what happens with Twitter. What happens on twitter ends up on news, drives lead news on NYTimes and other outlets..

Twitter brings lot of scrutiny from right, left + govts. Many people will be unhappy with whatever Elon does with Twitter. Eg: Former Pres coming back. or hate speech, bullying, another Jan 6th type event or riot from other side - having links in Twitter. Any of this will get major scrutiny..
I bet you're right about this, but I have no skin in the game. It doesn't matter what I think. I don't own a Tesla nor the stock. But I think the world now has a South African free speech champion, you're about to see some quality drama.
1. Twitter implication on Elon and Tesla - Tesla Shanghai factory and China is too important for Elon.

[OT comments removed by admin LadyGeek]

2. Twitter buyout includes margin loan on TSLA stock held by Elon. He hasn't found equity partners who are ready to for this deal. (or he doesn't want) Not sure of implication of drop in TSLA stock on this loan.

There is additional debt financing that Twitter will have to paydown interest on. Twitter barely makes enough profits now to service this increased debt.

https://www.reuters.com/breakingviews/w ... 022-04-25/

====
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Compare Cisco 1990-2000 to Tesla till now.

1. - Cisco was supposed to be the gateway and backbone of internet
- Tesla is expected to be the number 1 EV maker and continue to grow exponentially..

2. Cisco became a successful company, but growth and profitability expectation were to rosy.

Cisco market cap was $569B in March 2000. it never got close too it again. It current market cap is 211B. (it did lots of stock buybacks to pull up its stock price)

Remember Cisco's example when thinking of TSLA stock.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by vasaver »

^^^^and instead of Cisco, I backed the truck up on Lucent. That was a real winner:-(
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by AlphaLess »

Lots of problematic things about TSLA.

As TSLA produces more affordable cars, quality is going down.

Also, electric cars are not the silver bullet.

Walking and biking are the silver bullet.
Completely free, and healthy.

Unless electric cars are substantially cheaper than gasoline, the conversion is going to be a tough road.

That, and an extremely distracted manager who has like, what, 7 or 8 companies now?
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by TimeRunner »

Are we at "Peak Musk?" He might want to pull a Bill Gates and slip back behind the curtain. As someone who was President used to say, "We'll see what happens." :wink:
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions | Wiki
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by LadyGeek »

This is a "No politics" forum. I removed some off-topic comments and a reply regarding an Elon Musk tweet related to free speech. As a reminder, see: Unacceptable Topics
In order to avoid the inevitable frictions that arise from these topics, political or religious posts and comments are prohibited. The only exceptions to this rule are:
  • Common religious expressions such as sending your prayers to an ailing member.
  • Usage of factual and non-derogatory political labels when necessary to the discussion at hand.
  • Discussions about enacted laws or regulations that affect the individual investor. Note that discussions of proposed legislation are prohibited.
  • Proposed regulations that are directly related to investing may be discussed if and when they are published for public comments.
Please stay focused on the investing aspects.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by retire2022 »

GP813 wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 4:02 pm
VW will always have a huge presence in Europe because of now nationalistic the Germans are with the car industry but I don't know anybody who would by a VW electric after the "diesel-gate" shenanigans they pulled. Maybe the VW van will get some buzz but VW sullied their reputation with a lot of people.
You meant since "diesel-gate" they had tarnished their image as origins as Nazi ie Hitler's people's car?

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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by firebirdparts »

TimeRunner wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 7:29 pm Are we at "Peak Musk?" He might want to pull a Bill Gates and slip back behind the curtain. As someone who was President used to say, "We'll see what happens." :wink:
You know who he reminds me of? Howard Hughes.
This time is the same
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by AlphaLess »

firebirdparts wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 1:56 pm
TimeRunner wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 7:29 pm Are we at "Peak Musk?" He might want to pull a Bill Gates and slip back behind the curtain. As someone who was President used to say, "We'll see what happens." :wink:
You know who he reminds me of? Howard Hughes.
Musk is very good at finding unnecessary distractions.
Which is too bad, considering he has great skill.
If only he used that skill in a focused manner.

Uncharacteristic few down days for TSLA, at a loss of 15% of mkt cap.

The difference between Musk and informed investors is that informed investors can smell blood from a mile away.
Musk can smell a good engineering project from 10 miles away.

Problem for Musk: he got into a game with informed investors.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by firebirdparts »

AlphaLess wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2022 10:42 am
Musk is very good at finding unnecessary distractions.
Evidently his name is getting dragged through that Johnny Depp trial today. I feel for the guy. He needs somebody to help him with his love life. Missed a couple of life lessons in middle school.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by AlphaLess »

firebirdparts wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2022 12:01 pm
AlphaLess wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2022 10:42 am
Musk is very good at finding unnecessary distractions.
Evidently his name is getting dragged through that Johnny Depp trial today. I feel for the guy. He needs somebody to help him with his love life. Missed a couple of life lessons in middle school.
Ok, I admit, I have no idea what that first sentence meant.
But I also admit that asking questions on that is a sure way to get the topic off rails here.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

Looks like someone sold 4,415,000 TSLA shares on Tuesday and Wednesday for $3,989,321,999.60. And sounds like there was more selling today.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1519850299757846530

Maybe others should sell? Or buy? Maybe some people already did and basically provided cash to buy Twitter?
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by trirunner »

harikaried wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:56 pm Looks like someone sold 4,415,000 TSLA shares on Tuesday and Wednesday for $3,989,321,999.60. And sounds like there was more selling today.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1519850299757846530

Maybe others should sell? Or buy? Maybe some people already did and basically provided cash to buy Twitter?
that would explain the 12% stock dump on Tuesday. who is the bag holder in this case, TSLA superfans? ARKK? all of us indexers?
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

trirunner wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:11 pm
harikaried wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:56 pm Looks like someone sold 4,415,000 TSLA shares on Tuesday and Wednesday for $3,989,321,999.60. And sounds like there was more selling today.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1519850299757846530

Maybe others should sell? Or buy? Maybe some people already did and basically provided cash to buy Twitter?
that would explain the 12% stock dump on Tuesday. who is the bag holder in this case, TSLA superfans? ARKK? all of us indexers?
Was it Elon doing more selling in order to finance TWTR? Whoops. I should click the link first. And yes it was.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

Twitter is going to be a big distraction for Musk.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

With most of the bigger names posting earnings, it shows why some people are buying into TSLA. Q1 2022 operating income and yoy change for the following companies.

Tesla - $3.6B with 507% increase
Ford - $1.34B with 45.5% decrease (if you break down their income, they make $419M from vehicles and $924M from Ford credit)

Meta - $8.5B with 25% decrease
Amazon - $3.67B with 58.6% decrease
Apple - $30B with 9% increase
Microsoft - $20.3B with 19% increase
Alphabet - $20.1B with 22.2% increase

The question going forward is if Tesla can keep executing on their growth (with customer demand), margins, profit and how the market values that growth.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Inframan4712 »

Nysoz wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:48 am With most of the bigger names posting earnings, it shows why some people are buying into TSLA. Q1 2022 operating income and yoy change for the following companies.

Tesla - $3.6B with 507% increase
Ford - $1.34B with 45.5% decrease (if you break down their income, they make $419M from vehicles and $924M from Ford credit)

Meta - $8.5B with 25% decrease
Amazon - $3.67B with 58.6% decrease
Apple - $30B with 9% increase
Microsoft - $20.3B with 19% increase
Alphabet - $20.1B with 22.2% increase

The question going forward is if Tesla can keep executing on their growth (with customer demand), margins, profit and how the market values that growth.
https://stocks.apple.com/AK-Jr2Cm8Si6HDDCTkxQP3A

Tesla’s margin in terms of EBIDTA was 26.8 percent vs 11.2 for GM and 6.7 for Ford(who got crushed by their Rivian investment).

These legacy automakers that the TSLA (edit: bears) in this thread keep saying will surpass TSLA sure don’t seem like they can execute like TSLA. They’ve had decades to get good at this and they haven’t, so how are they going to be able to pivot to electric, retire their ICE assets and suddenly achieve TSLA’s level of profit?

They won’t. And their stock prices reflect that.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

trirunner wrote: Thu Apr 28, 2022 9:11 pmthat would explain the 12% stock dump on Tuesday. who is the bag holder in this case, TSLA superfans? ARKK? all of us indexers?
Looks like he sold a total of nearly 10M shares Tuesday through Thursday. I believe index funds float adjust the market weighting, and these shares are no longer "insider" shares. I don't know how quickly fund managers re-weight holdings, but if there is a delay where TSLA increases (as the market realizes the fundamentals are unchanged?) before the index increases weighting, then maybe we indexers end up "buying high?"
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by randomguy »

Nysoz wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:48 am With most of the bigger names posting earnings, it shows why some people are buying into TSLA. Q1 2022 operating income and yoy change for the following companies.

Tesla - $3.6B with 507% increase
Ford - $1.34B with 45.5% decrease (if you break down their income, they make $419M from vehicles and $924M from Ford credit)

Meta - $8.5B with 25% decrease
Amazon - $3.67B with 58.6% decrease
Apple - $30B with 9% increase
Microsoft - $20.3B with 19% increase
Alphabet - $20.1B with 22.2% increase

The question going forward is if Tesla can keep executing on their growth (with customer demand), margins, profit and how the market values that growth.
And since those earning announcements the share price is off ~15%. Those good numbers weren't enough to support the valuation of the company. And yes the question is what growth is factored in. How many years of 50% growth in units shipped are needed. Can they maintain margins when they need to go down market to generate the needed volume. What is going to happen as they start getting legacy costs?
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by harikaried »

randomguy wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 4:04 pmsince those earning announcements the share price is off ~15%. Those good numbers weren't enough to support the valuation of the company
There were plenty of sellers for TSLA to drop that much including Elon Musk cashing out nearly $10B.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

------
Last edited by impatientInv on Mon May 09, 2022 9:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by ltdshred »

Inframan4712 wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:10 am
Nysoz wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:48 am With most of the bigger names posting earnings, it shows why some people are buying into TSLA. Q1 2022 operating income and yoy change for the following companies.

Tesla - $3.6B with 507% increase
Ford - $1.34B with 45.5% decrease (if you break down their income, they make $419M from vehicles and $924M from Ford credit)

Meta - $8.5B with 25% decrease
Amazon - $3.67B with 58.6% decrease
Apple - $30B with 9% increase
Microsoft - $20.3B with 19% increase
Alphabet - $20.1B with 22.2% increase

The question going forward is if Tesla can keep executing on their growth (with customer demand), margins, profit and how the market values that growth.
https://stocks.apple.com/AK-Jr2Cm8Si6HDDCTkxQP3A

Tesla’s margin in terms of EBIDTA was 26.8 percent vs 11.2 for GM and 6.7 for Ford(who got crushed by their Rivian investment).

These legacy automakers that the TSLA (edit: bears) in this thread keep saying will surpass TSLA sure don’t seem like they can execute like TSLA. They’ve had decades to get good at this and they haven’t, so how are they going to be able to pivot to electric, retire their ICE assets and suddenly achieve TSLA’s level of profit?

They won’t. And their stock prices reflect that.
Exactly this... legacy automakers are zombie companies. They don't even make quality or affordable cars for the consumer anymore and have clearly been run out by Honda/Toyota/Nissan.

Meanwhile, TSLA is living in the future despite the stock price action setback.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Why doesn't basic AEB work on Tesla? Shouldn't it brake when objects are on the road? Is it because of shadows from the trees or doesn't see white objects/vehicles fast enough?

https://youtu.be/p7lp5f0aqzU

I think this is a problem with vision, can't see far enough, issues with detecting objects around shadows in a bright day and white objects on a bright day. If they tweek the software to stop for these, there will be phantom braking(sensor mistaking objects present when they are not). So Tesla seems to have chosen FSD feature working over safety -AEB.

Don't think YouTuber is sabotaging the test, because he can get into serious trouble with Tesla lawyers. I understand he has been fired by Tesla, because of his YouTube review of FSD Beta earlier. So maynot be a fan of Tesla.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/15/tesla-f ... utube.html

PS: read the comments of the video.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by z3r0c00l »

Approaching a positively reasonable P/E of 100! (After a 35% decline.)
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nathan Drake »

ltdshred wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 9:10 pm
Inframan4712 wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 9:10 am
Nysoz wrote: Fri Apr 29, 2022 6:48 am With most of the bigger names posting earnings, it shows why some people are buying into TSLA. Q1 2022 operating income and yoy change for the following companies.

Tesla - $3.6B with 507% increase
Ford - $1.34B with 45.5% decrease (if you break down their income, they make $419M from vehicles and $924M from Ford credit)

Meta - $8.5B with 25% decrease
Amazon - $3.67B with 58.6% decrease
Apple - $30B with 9% increase
Microsoft - $20.3B with 19% increase
Alphabet - $20.1B with 22.2% increase

The question going forward is if Tesla can keep executing on their growth (with customer demand), margins, profit and how the market values that growth.
https://stocks.apple.com/AK-Jr2Cm8Si6HDDCTkxQP3A

Tesla’s margin in terms of EBIDTA was 26.8 percent vs 11.2 for GM and 6.7 for Ford(who got crushed by their Rivian investment).

These legacy automakers that the TSLA (edit: bears) in this thread keep saying will surpass TSLA sure don’t seem like they can execute like TSLA. They’ve had decades to get good at this and they haven’t, so how are they going to be able to pivot to electric, retire their ICE assets and suddenly achieve TSLA’s level of profit?

They won’t. And their stock prices reflect that.
Exactly this... legacy automakers are zombie companies. They don't even make quality or affordable cars for the consumer anymore and have clearly been run out by Honda/Toyota/Nissan.

Meanwhile, TSLA is living in the future despite the stock price action setback.
Ummmm... Plenty of legacy automakers make high quality vehicles that are ALSO affordable (especially compared to a Tesla).
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Impatient wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 9:15 pm Why doesn't basic AEB work on Tesla? Shouldn't it brake when objects are on the road? Is it because of shadows from the trees or doesn't see white objects/vehicles fast enough?

https://youtu.be/p7lp5f0aqzU

I think this is a problem with vision, can't see far enough, issues with detecting objects around shadows in a bright day and white objects on a bright day. If they tweek the software to stop for these, there will be phantom braking(sensor mistaking objects present when they are not). So Tesla seems to have chosen FSD feature working over safety -AEB.
Turns out Tesla automatic braking AEB has issues. AEB is basic feature needed for safety, when people dose off while driving or looking away from the road.

In the test video above, Tesla AEB doesn't stop for objects like orange bucket, vertical shipping pallet, office chair, garbage can, BBQ grill and pickup truck.

Below are some recent news reports.

A Tesla mystery: Why didn’t auto-braking stop these crashes?
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced this week it has opened an investigation into over 400,000 Teslas—all 2021 and 2022 model year Tesla Model 3 and Model Y electric vehicles—for problems with their automated emergency braking systems.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a391 ... stigation/

Here is a test at 2022 CES shown by a LIDAR company. In this test Lexus has Lidar and Tesla is vision only.
This test pitted the Lexus head-to-head with a Tesla Model Y. The two vehicles were lined up in lanes parallel to one another, and each one had a stationary dummy placed in the middle of the corresponding lane. The Lexus engaged AEB and stopped, while the Tesla punted the dummy across the pavement.
https://www.thedrive.com/tech/43779/thi ... ar-matters

Image
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Valuethinker »

retire2022 wrote: Wed Apr 27, 2022 1:14 pm
GP813 wrote: Tue Apr 26, 2022 4:02 pm
VW will always have a huge presence in Europe because of now nationalistic the Germans are with the car industry but I don't know anybody who would by a VW electric after the "diesel-gate" shenanigans they pulled. Maybe the VW van will get some buzz but VW sullied their reputation with a lot of people.
You meant since "diesel-gate" they had tarnished their image as origins as Nazi ie Hitler's people's car?

https://www.history.com/this-day-in-his ... is-founded
Do you mean that their origins in the Nazi era matter?

In which case, for the world's 2nd largest car company by volume, I would argue they do not. WW2 was 75 years ago and there is almost no one left with direct recollection of same***. We are not Russia and we don't have a military parade on 9th May.** British people buy plenty of German built cars (and I suspect Polish people do, too).

Dieselgate hurt, particularly in North America. But that's never been a huge market for them. Other European diesel manufacturers were "cooking the books" (in a way which was legal) - Europe's experimentation with diesel cars turns out to have been a terrible mistake, due to the health effects of particulates, which are much worse than was realised. Diesel cars in the UK have gone from 50% of sales to under 20% in the space of a handful of years.

The company has made a huge pivot towards cleaner technology.

The VW electric models look good and I have seen a few here (London). They are selling. Dieselgate is pretty much forgotten except among connoisseurs.

** Someone will shout about the British obsession with Churchill, summer of 1940 & Battle of Britain, the Few etc etc. That was and is more about domestic politics and posturing than anything else.

*** Elizabeth of Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, Her Majesty the Queen, is 96. She was a teenager during the war and served in an auxiliary army unit. Not so many left, now.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Valuethinker »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon May 09, 2022 9:36 pm
Exactly this... legacy automakers are zombie companies. They don't even make quality or affordable cars for the consumer anymore and have clearly been run out by Honda/Toyota/Nissan.

Ummmm... Plenty of legacy automakers make high quality vehicles that are ALSO affordable (especially compared to a Tesla).
The quality of cars generally is so much higher than it was say in 1980 that it's hard to fathom sometimes. Especially given the improvement in various metrics: fuel economy, engine horsepower, acceleration (a Toyota Corolla today outpaces a 1980 Muscle Car, I read), safety equipment, entertainment systems etc.

Affordability. You get so much more in a car now than even in the mid 1990s that it's hard to compare. Average prices have risen, I am not sure affordability has fallen: interest rates are much lower, finance terms are longer, real incomes are higher.

Britain, a land of c 65m people with petrol prices that are c 1.75x US prices, has over 30m licensed passenger vehicles. On a GDP per capita much lower than the USA. Hard to argue cars are genuinely expensive or unaffordable.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Cathie Woods famed investor SI, earlier had criticized GM. She had said TSLA will be only winner and legacy automakers are doomed. She had also predicted that GM and Ford may go bankrupt..

First she had TSLA price target at $800,
then she upped it to $3,000 and
again she upped it to $4,600.


Yesterday she sold some TSLA and bought GM shares.


Image

Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest makes first bet on General Motors after criticizing automaker

She is really good at marketing to her clients - ARKK fell 75% from its peak in Feb 2021 but investors kept buying. All in all her funds raked in hundreds of millions in commission.

==========================================================================================
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Tesla has stiff competition in China and Europe. Its market share among EVs in both China and Europe is heading below 10%.

Here is BYD giving stiff competition..
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impatientInv
Posts: 349
Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2021 1:26 pm

Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

China and companies in China own/control most of battery raw material mining and processing. They also produce most of the anode and cathode that go into battery cells.

It will be not be possible for Tesla to grow 50% every year without strong support/partnership from China. China would want most of this production to happen in China and by Chinese companies. BYD, CATL etc will control EV batteries, not Tesla IMO. Both have superior batteries vs Tesla (4680 is way behind schedule, specs have been diluted)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/who- ... -jbglsgm02 link works incognito
For the past 20 years, China has been buying up valuable resources around the world to supply its vast manufacturing industry. More critically still, even where it does not own the mines outright, it has secured deals that mean nearly 80 per cent of the planet’s supply of these crucial raw minerals is sent to China for cleaning up and processing into usable metals. From the Chinese refineries, the metals not needed by China’s own plants are then shipped off to factories in Europe, America and elsewhere.

This means that, theoretically at least, in the most important minerals for the future green economy — nickel, cobalt, graphite, lithium and so-called rare earth metals — China could effectively turn on, and turn off, the world’s supply at will.
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4nursebee
Posts: 2663
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

impatientInv wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 9:43 pm China and companies in China own/control most of battery raw material mining and processing. They also produce most of the anode and cathode that go into battery cells.

It will be not be possible for Tesla to grow 50% every year without strong support/partnership from China. China would want most of this production to happen in China and by Chinese companies. BYD, CATL etc will control EV batteries, not Tesla IMO. Both have superior batteries vs Tesla (4680 is way behind schedule, specs have been diluted)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/who- ... -jbglsgm02 link works incognito
For the past 20 years, China has been buying up valuable resources around the world to supply its vast manufacturing industry. More critically still, even where it does not own the mines outright, it has secured deals that mean nearly 80 per cent of the planet’s supply of these crucial raw minerals is sent to China for cleaning up and processing into usable metals. From the Chinese refineries, the metals not needed by China’s own plants are then shipped off to factories in Europe, America and elsewhere.

This means that, theoretically at least, in the most important minerals for the future green economy — nickel, cobalt, graphite, lithium and so-called rare earth metals — China could effectively turn on, and turn off, the world’s supply at will.
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Wow, so much to "unpack" here:
1. This seems like more opinion than fact.
2. Please clarify (give evidence) superiority of BYD and CATL batteries.
3. Please clarify (evidence?) that 4680 is a) behind schedule and b) has diluted specs.
4. And I question the input data reliability, based upon a few minute internet search it appears that China is not a top producer of Ni: https://www.statista.com/statistics/264 ... y-country/
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