ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

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Marseille07
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2022

Post by Marseille07 »

I thought the forward P/E being low is a bad thing as opposed to the trailing P/E.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2022

Post by patrick »

Kind of cheating to make the guess when international is already 2% ahead year to date.
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Re: International stocks will outperform US stocks in 2022

Post by rockstar »

Let's revisit this thread at the end of the year. I'm curious how this ends up.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

I merged Tamalak's thread into the ongoing discussion.

(Thanks to the member who reported the post.)
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

"Goldman Sachs Clients Favor European Stocks as U.S. Risks Grow"

Risks in U.S. stock market are rising as bond yields climb: GS

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. clients joined the chorus of bullish calls for Europe, forecasting that the region’s stocks will outperform this year as the outlook for U.S. equities dims.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Tamalak »

Goldman Sachs thinks ex-US stocks will outperform?

I withdraw my prediction :(
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Tamalak wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:57 am Goldman Sachs thinks ex-US stocks will outperform?

I withdraw my prediction :(
Well, just Europe, and I'm not even sure they include the UK as both JP Morgan and BlackRock are both overweight Europe, neutral UK. BlackRock says, "We are neutral UK equities. We see the market as fairly valued and prefer European equities."

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-man ... llocation/
https://www.blackrock.com/us/individual ... lass-views
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by princetontiger »

Europe and Japan will have their day, soon.

Remember, those two countries/regions are G7. They represent the very best in civilization. The quality of institutions are equal, if not superior, to US/Canadian ones.

VT is how to play it.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

That chart highlights, perhaps, a consequence of Europe’s high unemployment and demographic shifts (smaller working age population, low replacement rate).
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Apathizer »

Today I'm really glad to have a globally diverse portfolio. :D
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by peskypesky »

Apathizer wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:07 pm Today I'm really glad to have a globally diverse portfolio. :D
For the last 15 years, I've been glad not to. :)
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by atdharris »

Maybe this is the year, boys. Perhaps ex-US will no longer be an albatross around our portfolio's necks
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Apathizer »

peskypesky wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:10 pm
Apathizer wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:07 pm Today I'm really glad to have a globally diverse portfolio. :D
For the last 15 years, I've been glad not to. :)
As long as you understand US out-performance over that time wasn't predetermined; that's just how it worked out. Considering how expensive US stocks are, that seems unlikely to continue. I don't know either way so I'm globally diversified.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by peskypesky »

Apathizer wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:31 pm
peskypesky wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:10 pm
Apathizer wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:07 pm Today I'm really glad to have a globally diverse portfolio. :D
For the last 15 years, I've been glad not to. :)
As long as you understand US out-performance over that time wasn't predetermined; that's just how it worked out. Considering how expensive US stocks are, that seems unlikely to continue. But I don't know so I'm globally diversified.
I try to follow Jack Bogle's investing advice when it comes to stocks. Whenever I veer away from his advice, I end up regretting it. YMMV

Christine Benz: Let's talk about international, and you and I always talk about this. You're kind of a contrarian even within your firm in terms of thinking that investors don't necessarily need international stocks to have a globally diversified portfolio. But yesterday at the conference, you talked about Jason Zweig's good piece on the perhaps relative undervaluation of foreign stocks. Do you think investors ought to look at that, be thinking about the fact that we have not seen foreign stocks perform as well as U.S.?

John C. Bogle: I guess the answer to that is yes and no. Number one, the fact that they're undervalued may mean that they're undervalued because they're riskier, which I think is at least importantly the case, maybe not the entire case. Second, I'm just a great believer in a U.S. portfolio because we're the most entrepreneurial nation, we've got the soundest institutions, financial and otherwise, or have had in the past, governance is pretty solid, in the past at least, and a well-diversified economy.

For U.S. corporations, about half of their revenues and half of their earnings come from abroad anyway. It's not as if we're America first or America only. The entire world economy is integrated around many, many countries trading with many, many other countries. I do not think you need to add international.


https://www.morningstar.com/articles/88 ... -us-stocks
Nathan Drake
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

peskypesky wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:34 pm
Apathizer wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:31 pm
peskypesky wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:10 pm
Apathizer wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:07 pm Today I'm really glad to have a globally diverse portfolio. :D
For the last 15 years, I've been glad not to. :)
As long as you understand US out-performance over that time wasn't predetermined; that's just how it worked out. Considering how expensive US stocks are, that seems unlikely to continue. But I don't know so I'm globally diversified.
I try to follow Jack Bogle's investing advice when it comes to stocks. Whenever I veer away from his advice, I end up regretting it. YMMV

Christine Benz: Let's talk about international, and you and I always talk about this. You're kind of a contrarian even within your firm in terms of thinking that investors don't necessarily need international stocks to have a globally diversified portfolio. But yesterday at the conference, you talked about Jason Zweig's good piece on the perhaps relative undervaluation of foreign stocks. Do you think investors ought to look at that, be thinking about the fact that we have not seen foreign stocks perform as well as U.S.?

John C. Bogle: I guess the answer to that is yes and no. Number one, the fact that they're undervalued may mean that they're undervalued because they're riskier, which I think is at least importantly the case, maybe not the entire case. Second, I'm just a great believer in a U.S. portfolio because we're the most entrepreneurial nation, we've got the soundest institutions, financial and otherwise, or have had in the past, governance is pretty solid, in the past at least, and a well-diversified economy.

For U.S. corporations, about half of their revenues and half of their earnings come from abroad anyway. It's not as if we're America first or America only. The entire world economy is integrated around many, many countries trading with many, many other countries. I do not think you need to add international.


https://www.morningstar.com/articles/88 ... -us-stocks
Not following Jack’s “hardline” advice had been the best investment decision I have made since following his general “buy low cost market funds” approach

Very happy having SCV and exUS exposure
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Johnny Thinwallet »

I've maintained my international allocation at around 25ish percent of my total stock allocation. It's required holding my nose to do that, but I've been doing it because that's what I believe I need to do as part of my IPS with my 3-fund portfolio and diversification.

I'm just looking forward to international finally having a nice run at some point. Or maybe another way to say it is I'm looking forward to international finally being a productive part of my portfolio.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by RXfiles »

I wonder if there would be a cascade effect if VXUS outperformed for a year then people would diversify out of VTI and buy more VXUS or VTWAX.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by peskypesky »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:38 pm Not following Jack’s “hardline” advice had been the best investment decision I have made since following his general “buy low cost market funds” approach

Very happy having SCV and exUS exposure
And I'm EXTREMELY happy with the returns I've gotten from the S&P 500 index the past 13 years. It actually allowed me to retire early at 53. :sharebeer :moneybag

"Aside from a quick down blip in the first quarter of 2020, since 2008 the U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500, has skyrocketed, growing approximately 600% when dividends are included."

That being said, I have added some US SCV to my portfolio in the last month. Just for the heck of it. :D

Good we're both getting rich! There's more than one way to skin a cat.
Last edited by peskypesky on Wed Jan 12, 2022 4:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Robot Monster
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

RXfiles wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:55 pm I wonder if there would be a cascade effect if VXUS outperformed for a year then people would diversify out of VTI and buy more VXUS or VTWAX.
From Oct 2003 - Oct 2007, international beat US-only stocks. PV link

Those who chased that performance ended up regretting it, especially if they did it in 2007.
Last edited by Robot Monster on Wed Jan 12, 2022 4:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Da5id
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Da5id »

If only there were other threads for the endless nattering about US vs ex-US. If only.

Back on the real topic, So Much Soaring today.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Apathizer »

peskypesky wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:34 pm
Apathizer wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:31 pm
peskypesky wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:10 pm
Apathizer wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:07 pm Today I'm really glad to have a globally diverse portfolio. :D
For the last 15 years, I've been glad not to. :)
As long as you understand US out-performance over that time wasn't predetermined; that's just how it worked out. Considering how expensive US stocks are, that seems unlikely to continue. But I don't know so I'm globally diversified.
I try to follow Jack Bogle's investing advice when it comes to stocks. Whenever I veer away from his advice, I end up regretting it. YMMV

Christine Benz: Let's talk about international, and you and I always talk about this. You're kind of a contrarian even within your firm in terms of thinking that investors don't necessarily need international stocks to have a globally diversified portfolio. But yesterday at the conference, you talked about Jason Zweig's good piece on the perhaps relative undervaluation of foreign stocks. Do you think investors ought to look at that, be thinking about the fact that we have not seen foreign stocks perform as well as U.S.?

John C. Bogle: I guess the answer to that is yes and no. Number one, the fact that they're undervalued may mean that they're undervalued because they're riskier, which I think is at least importantly the case, maybe not the entire case. Second, I'm just a great believer in a U.S. portfolio because we're the most entrepreneurial nation, we've got the soundest institutions, financial and otherwise, or have had in the past, governance is pretty solid, in the past at least, and a well-diversified economy.

For U.S. corporations, about half of their revenues and half of their earnings come from abroad anyway. It's not as if we're America first or America only. The entire world economy is integrated around many, many countries trading with many, many other countries. I do not think you need to add international.


https://www.morningstar.com/articles/88 ... -us-stocks
While he was obviously right more oft than not, Bogle exhibits significant home-country bias. Too much in my view. As has been noted many times, a company having global revenue sources isn't the same as owning shares of ex-US companies which also have global revenue sources. Globalization might be even more reason to invest globally. As the world economy becomes more fully integrated, this might level the playing field, esp for emerging markets.

For me it's about diversification as much as anything since I don't know which countries or companies will have the best returns. Evidence shows global diversification with a moderate factor-tilt produces the best risk-adjusted returns.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by RXfiles »

Robot Monster wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 4:04 pm
RXfiles wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:55 pm I wonder if there would be a cascade effect if VXUS outperformed for a year then people would diversify out of VTI and buy more VXUS or VTWAX.
From Oct 2003 - Oct 2007, international beat US-only stocks. PV link

Those who chased that performance ended up regretting it, especially if they did it in 2007.
I don't disagree. That doesn't mean people won't do it..
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by VTI »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 3:38 pm […]

Not following Jack’s “hardline” advice had been the best investment decision I have made since following his general “buy low cost market funds” approach

Very happy having SCV and exUS exposure
How recent is this tilt of yours?
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic post. The thread is straying into a "US vs. International" debate.

Please stay on-topic, which is ex-US stocks (increasing).
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Elysium »

Were they? hmm.. well I've had some allocation to Intl always for the past two decades though I think it is a drag, but it isn't the 40% Vanguard recommends or the 50% some here says should be as in VT. It was between somewhere around 20% to 25% on average.

Since 2003, I have earned about 8.03% from the international equity side, while my US equity side earned about 11.74%. All it did over two decades was to dilute my total returns by about 1% on average, and no downside protection when US went down. It did briefly do better than US mainly due to the currency effect of Euro gaining against USD from 2004-2007. So, it was mainly a currency thing and less of equity returns. Some people may think this is the reason to invest in Intl.

Bottomline, it hasn't helped very much in two decades for me personally, but I still have that 20% ish allocation, which I will retain. Not because I think it'll do better, but the drag-on effect isn't too much at that allocation. But 40% OTOH, that would be a disaster. BH wisdom says keep no more than 20%, that sounds about right.
Last edited by Elysium on Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Nathan Drake
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

Elysium wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:18 pm Were they? hmm.. well I've had some allocation to Intl always for the past two decades though I think it is a drag, but it isn't the 40% Vanguard recommends or the 50% some here says should be as in VT. It was between somewhere around 20% to 25% on average.

In that time, I have earned about 8.03% from the international equity side, while my US equity side earned about 11.74%. All it did over two decades was to dilute my returns by about 1% on average, and no downside protection when US went down. It did briefly do better than US mainly due to the currency effect of Euro gaining against USD from 2004-2007. So, it was mainly a currency thing and less of equity returns. Some people may think this is the reason to invest in Intl.

Bottomline, it hasn't helped very much in two decades for me personally, but I still have that 20% ish allocation, which I will retain. Not because I think it'll do better, but the drag-on effect isn't too much at that allocation. But 40% OTOH, that would be a disaster. BH wisdom says keep no more than 20%, that sounds about right.
40% has not been a “disaster”
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
Elysium
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Elysium »

Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:20 pm
Elysium wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:18 pm Were they? hmm.. well I've had some allocation to Intl always for the past two decades though I think it is a drag, but it isn't the 40% Vanguard recommends or the 50% some here says should be as in VT. It was between somewhere around 20% to 25% on average.

In that time, I have earned about 8.03% from the international equity side, while my US equity side earned about 11.74%. All it did over two decades was to dilute my returns by about 1% on average, and no downside protection when US went down. It did briefly do better than US mainly due to the currency effect of Euro gaining against USD from 2004-2007. So, it was mainly a currency thing and less of equity returns. Some people may think this is the reason to invest in Intl.

Bottomline, it hasn't helped very much in two decades for me personally, but I still have that 20% ish allocation, which I will retain. Not because I think it'll do better, but the drag-on effect isn't too much at that allocation. But 40% OTOH, that would be a disaster. BH wisdom says keep no more than 20%, that sounds about right.
40% has not been a “disaster”
It would have diluted my average returns by another 1%, with 20% ish allocation the drag-on effect wasn't too much.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

:moneybag
Elysium wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:21 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:20 pm
Elysium wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:18 pm Were they? hmm.. well I've had some allocation to Intl always for the past two decades though I think it is a drag, but it isn't the 40% Vanguard recommends or the 50% some here says should be as in VT. It was between somewhere around 20% to 25% on average.

In that time, I have earned about 8.03% from the international equity side, while my US equity side earned about 11.74%. All it did over two decades was to dilute my returns by about 1% on average, and no downside protection when US went down. It did briefly do better than US mainly due to the currency effect of Euro gaining against USD from 2004-2007. So, it was mainly a currency thing and less of equity returns. Some people may think this is the reason to invest in Intl.

Bottomline, it hasn't helped very much in two decades for me personally, but I still have that 20% ish allocation, which I will retain. Not because I think it'll do better, but the drag-on effect isn't too much at that allocation. But 40% OTOH, that would be a disaster. BH wisdom says keep no more than 20%, that sounds about right.
40% has not been a “disaster”
It would have diluted my average returns by another 1%, with 20% ish allocation the drag-on effect wasn't too much.
I don’t consider that to be a disaster

Do you compare your returns to Crypto or TSLA, etc etc?

You do realize that next decade your US position could be a large drag?
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Apathizer »

Elysium wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:21 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:20 pm
Elysium wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:18 pm Were they? hmm.. well I've had some allocation to Intl always for the past two decades though I think it is a drag, but it isn't the 40% Vanguard recommends or the 50% some here says should be as in VT. It was between somewhere around 20% to 25% on average.

In that time, I have earned about 8.03% from the international equity side, while my US equity side earned about 11.74%. All it did over two decades was to dilute my returns by about 1% on average, and no downside protection when US went down. It did briefly do better than US mainly due to the currency effect of Euro gaining against USD from 2004-2007. So, it was mainly a currency thing and less of equity returns. Some people may think this is the reason to invest in Intl.

Bottomline, it hasn't helped very much in two decades for me personally, but I still have that 20% ish allocation, which I will retain. Not because I think it'll do better, but the drag-on effect isn't too much at that allocation. But 40% OTOH, that would be a disaster. BH wisdom says keep no more than 20%, that sounds about right.
40% has not been a “disaster”
It would have diluted my average returns by another 1%, with 20% ish allocation the drag-on effect wasn't too much.
Indeed. Over the past 13 yrs VT had a CAGR of 12%, which is still very good. Yes VTI has been much better at 16%, but again this wasn't predetermined, and this seems unlikely to continue.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Da5id »

Lighthearted cheerleading thread! Plenty of other threads for people to debate and get locked...

Soar, ex-US, soar :)
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Elysium »

Apathizer wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:27 pm
Elysium wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:21 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:20 pm
Elysium wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:18 pm Were they? hmm.. well I've had some allocation to Intl always for the past two decades though I think it is a drag, but it isn't the 40% Vanguard recommends or the 50% some here says should be as in VT. It was between somewhere around 20% to 25% on average.

In that time, I have earned about 8.03% from the international equity side, while my US equity side earned about 11.74%. All it did over two decades was to dilute my returns by about 1% on average, and no downside protection when US went down. It did briefly do better than US mainly due to the currency effect of Euro gaining against USD from 2004-2007. So, it was mainly a currency thing and less of equity returns. Some people may think this is the reason to invest in Intl.

Bottomline, it hasn't helped very much in two decades for me personally, but I still have that 20% ish allocation, which I will retain. Not because I think it'll do better, but the drag-on effect isn't too much at that allocation. But 40% OTOH, that would be a disaster. BH wisdom says keep no more than 20%, that sounds about right.
40% has not been a “disaster”
It would have diluted my average returns by another 1%, with 20% ish allocation the drag-on effect wasn't too much.
Indeed. Over the past 13 yrs VT had a CAGR of 12%, which is still very good. Yes VTI has been much better at 16%, but again this wasn't predetermined, and this seems unlikely to continue.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100
US companies as a broad group tend to make more profits and have an ability to grow earnings better than their International counterparts, this may or may not happen over a decade which is a very short time frame, and mostly irrelevant. Over two or three decades without benefits from currency strengthening against USD, International stocks will have hard time keeping up simply because those companies tend to make less profits. Intl investing is in many ways a currency play, all the more reason to limit exposure to no more than 20% or 25%.
Last edited by Elysium on Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by rockstar »

How much does ex-US have to grow to make up for the current underperformance period to break even with US?
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by pizzy »

rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:18 pm How much does ex-US have to grow to make up for the current underperformance period to break even with US?
Why would anything before today matter?
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Da5id
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Da5id »

pizzy wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:31 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:18 pm How much does ex-US have to grow to make up for the current underperformance period to break even with US?
Why would anything before today matter?
Exactly. Particularly in the soaring thread.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by David Jay »

pizzy wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:31 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:18 pm How much does ex-US have to grow to make up for the current underperformance period to break even with US?
Why would anything before today matter?
Because I can accurately back-test the past. The future is much more challenging...
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by pizzy »

David Jay wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:40 pm
pizzy wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:31 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:18 pm How much does ex-US have to grow to make up for the current underperformance period to break even with US?
Why would anything before today matter?
Because I can accurately back-test the past. The future is much more challenging...
And all you learned about was the past.

Money is made in the future.

VT and chill.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Apathizer »

Elysium wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:13 pm
Apathizer wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:27 pm
Elysium wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:21 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:20 pm
Elysium wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:18 pm Were they? hmm.. well I've had some allocation to Intl always for the past two decades though I think it is a drag, but it isn't the 40% Vanguard recommends or the 50% some here says should be as in VT. It was between somewhere around 20% to 25% on average.

In that time, I have earned about 8.03% from the international equity side, while my US equity side earned about 11.74%. All it did over two decades was to dilute my returns by about 1% on average, and no downside protection when US went down. It did briefly do better than US mainly due to the currency effect of Euro gaining against USD from 2004-2007. So, it was mainly a currency thing and less of equity returns. Some people may think this is the reason to invest in Intl.

Bottomline, it hasn't helped very much in two decades for me personally, but I still have that 20% ish allocation, which I will retain. Not because I think it'll do better, but the drag-on effect isn't too much at that allocation. But 40% OTOH, that would be a disaster. BH wisdom says keep no more than 20%, that sounds about right.
40% has not been a “disaster”
It would have diluted my average returns by another 1%, with 20% ish allocation the drag-on effect wasn't too much.
Indeed. Over the past 13 yrs VT had a CAGR of 12%, which is still very good. Yes VTI has been much better at 16%, but again this wasn't predetermined, and this seems unlikely to continue.
https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100
US companies as a broad group tend to make more profits and have an ability to grow earnings better than their International counterparts, this may or may not happen over a decade which is a very short time frame, and mostly irrelevant. Over two or three decades without benefits from currency strengthening against USD, International stocks will have hard time keeping up simply because those companies tend to make less profits. Intl investing is in many ways a currency play, all the more reason to limit exposure to no more than 20% or 25%.
Unless you're clairvoyant, and as far as I know no one is, that's entirely presumptuous. Remember, this isn't just about raw profits, but profits relative to price. US large growth stocks are expensive many other asset classes, including ex-US companies are equally or more profitable with a much lower share-price. It's not just about future profits, but the price you pay for those profits.
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Apathizer
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Apathizer »

David Jay wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:40 pm
pizzy wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:31 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:18 pm How much does ex-US have to grow to make up for the current underperformance period to break even with US?
Why would anything before today matter?
Because I can accurately back-test the past. The future is much more challenging...
True, but the past is all we can analyze. Historically, most ex-US markets have slightly lower long-term returns than the US. Considering this and considering their under-performance over the last 15 years it seems likely they'll recover sooner than later.
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JoMoney
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by JoMoney »

rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:18 pm How much does ex-US have to grow to make up for the current underperformance period to break even with US?
Period of underperformance starting from when? and measured with or without the foreign tax withholding and expense frictions?
By some measures, you can go back over 30 years of "international" having a growing disparity of underperformance
MStar Chart Link EAFE v. S&P500
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

JoMoney wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:06 am
rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:18 pm How much does ex-US have to grow to make up for the current underperformance period to break even with US?
Period of underperformance starting from when? and measured with or without the foreign tax withholding and expense frictions?
By some measures, you can go back over 30 years of "international" having a growing disparity of underperformance
MStar Chart Link EAFE v. S&P500
Wonder if anything significant happened in 1989 that could make that an odd starting point : )
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JoMoney
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by JoMoney »

z3r0c00l wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:08 am
JoMoney wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:06 am
rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:18 pm How much does ex-US have to grow to make up for the current underperformance period to break even with US?
Period of underperformance starting from when? and measured with or without the foreign tax withholding and expense frictions?
By some measures, you can go back over 30 years of "international" having a growing disparity of underperformance
MStar Chart Link EAFE v. S&P500
Wonder if anything significant happened in 1989 that could make that an odd starting point : )
It's the furthest out starting point period in the MSCI EAFE (net return after foreign tax withholding) index series where it's failed to have a "mean reversion" relative to the S&P 500 index return
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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JoMoney
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by JoMoney »

JoMoney wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:14 am
z3r0c00l wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:08 am
JoMoney wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:06 am
rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:18 pm How much does ex-US have to grow to make up for the current underperformance period to break even with US?
Period of underperformance starting from when? and measured with or without the foreign tax withholding and expense frictions?
By some measures, you can go back over 30 years of "international" having a growing disparity of underperformance
MStar Chart Link EAFE v. S&P500
Wonder if anything significant happened in 1989 that could make that an odd starting point : )
It's the furthest out starting point period in the MSCI EAFE (net return after foreign tax withholding) index series where it's failed to have a "mean reversion" relative to the S&P 500 index return
If one looked at the MSCI EAFE Gross Return series (that an investor can't buy, there will be foreign tax withholding, and additional fund expenses on top of that) the most recent period of disparity in returns would have started at about the beginning of 2011
LINK
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

JoMoney wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:14 am
z3r0c00l wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:08 am
JoMoney wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:06 am
rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:18 pm How much does ex-US have to grow to make up for the current underperformance period to break even with US?
Period of underperformance starting from when? and measured with or without the foreign tax withholding and expense frictions?
By some measures, you can go back over 30 years of "international" having a growing disparity of underperformance
MStar Chart Link EAFE v. S&P500
Wonder if anything significant happened in 1989 that could make that an odd starting point : )
It's the furthest out starting point period in the MSCI EAFE (net return after foreign tax withholding) index series where it's failed to have a "mean reversion" relative to the S&P 500 index return
My point is the index probably went from 80% Japan to today's 22% Japan in that time.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by TomatoTomahto »

Da5id wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:31 pm Lighthearted cheerleading thread! Plenty of other threads for people to debate and get locked...

Soar, ex-US, soar :)
I have been quietly enjoying the soar. My Dad, who mostly flew propeller planes, said that the best part of soaring in a glider was the quiet as you soared. I’m following suit.

Some more soar, please :beer Shhhh.
I get the FI part but not the RE part of FIRE.
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David Jay
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by David Jay »

pizzy wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:42 pm
David Jay wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:40 pm
pizzy wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:31 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:18 pm How much does ex-US have to grow to make up for the current underperformance period to break even with US?
Why would anything before today matter?
Because I can accurately back-test the past. The future is much more challenging...
And all you learned about was the past.

Money is made in the future.

VT and chill.
I figured that folks would see the sarcasm. I was wrong.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by asif408 »

z3r0c00l wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:19 am
JoMoney wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:14 am
z3r0c00l wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:08 am
JoMoney wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:06 am
rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:18 pm How much does ex-US have to grow to make up for the current underperformance period to break even with US?
Period of underperformance starting from when? and measured with or without the foreign tax withholding and expense frictions?
By some measures, you can go back over 30 years of "international" having a growing disparity of underperformance
MStar Chart Link EAFE v. S&P500
Wonder if anything significant happened in 1989 that could make that an odd starting point : )
It's the furthest out starting point period in the MSCI EAFE (net return after foreign tax withholding) index series where it's failed to have a "mean reversion" relative to the S&P 500 index return
My point is the index probably went from 80% Japan to today's 22% Japan in that time.
Don't worry, nothing like that could ever happen to the US.
JSPECO9
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by JSPECO9 »

peskypesky wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:10 pm
Apathizer wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 2:07 pm Today I'm really glad to have a globally diverse portfolio. :D
For the last 15 years, I've been glad not to. :)
Hey man, get out of our thread. Let us ex-US losers have our moment for once! :annoyed
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by lostdog »

pizzy wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:42 pm
David Jay wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:40 pm
pizzy wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:31 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 12, 2022 9:18 pm How much does ex-US have to grow to make up for the current underperformance period to break even with US?
Why would anything before today matter?
Because I can accurately back-test the past. The future is much more challenging...
And all you learned about was the past.

Money is made in the future.

VT and chill.
:beer
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Nathan Drake
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

Edit: n/m my tickers seemed to revert to yesterday for some odd reason
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TheoLeo
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by TheoLeo »

Lets hope europe has a great year. On monday I changed my allocation from 60 % US/40 % Europe to 70 % european value stocks and 30 % cash. It is market timing and it might backfire.

What is interesting about the comparison of european vs US stocks is that growth stocks are even more expensive in Europe but value stocks are even cheaper in Europe than in the US. So I bought the cheapest of the cheap, the stocks that really nobody wants to touch. What can go wrong.
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