HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Hydromod
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Hydromod »

Tellurius wrote: Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:49 am If the HEDGEFUNDIE chart in the first post of this thread were to be updated now, what total would it show?
I followed the approach proposed here, using composer.trade. I used $99007.44 starting March 18, 2020, trading quarterly.

I get better returns for the same period that was presented (1/3/2022: I have 221.16% gain, the figure has 201.08% gain). Starting 3/20/2020 instead results in an increase of 202.14%. I don't know what the difference in results is from, although the interface now has more options regarding slippage and fees that aren't shown in the earlier results. Fees include SEC and FINRA regulatory charges. Default slippage is set at 5 bps.

According to the recent calculation, as of 6/10/2022, the portfolio value would be $155,164.98. That includes fees and slippage of $192.82.

Composer.trade shows HFEA dropping below SPY on 5/6/2022, bouncing above and below a bit since. SPY currently shows a 67.07% return vs. 56.80% return from the start (the HFEA return apparently doesn't include the fees and slippage).

Alternative rebalancing:
  • With daily rebalancing, the calculated HFEA portfolio would be at $161,256.24 after fees and slippage ($1276.40) over the same period.
  • With weekly rebalancing, the calculated HFEA portfolio would be at $160,758.45 after fees and slippage ($565.63) over the same period.
  • With monthly rebalancing, the calculated HFEA portfolio would be at $151,302.66 after fees and slippage ($288.70) over the same period.
Using the inverse volatility model, 2-month lookback, 3 UPRO to 1 TMF:
  • With daily rebalancing, the calculated HFEA portfolio would be at $195,782.12 after fees and slippage ($1338.97) over the same period.
  • With weekly rebalancing, the calculated HFEA portfolio would be at $193,190.61 after fees and slippage ($583.43) over the same period.
  • With monthly rebalancing, the calculated HFEA portfolio would be at $186,698.12 after fees and slippage ($370.85) over the same period.
  • With quarterly rebalancing, the calculated HFEA portfolio would be at $199,189.96 after fees and slippage ($174.27) over the same period.
The 3 UPRO/1 TMF is a crude risk budget approach to tilt risk towards equities. Allocations would have varied roughly between 60 and 80% UPRO over the period. Just plain inverse volatility would have similar results as the HFEA approach.

Weekly trades are on the first day of the week. Monthly trades are on the first day of the month.

Edit: note that slippage is NOT proportional to the number of trades. Each trade is smaller, so in trending markets the effect is similar. Of course, the portion of costs attributed to a fixed fee for trading would be proportional to number of trades.
Last edited by Hydromod on Sun Jun 12, 2022 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
finite_difference
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by finite_difference »

hiddenpower wrote: Wed Jun 08, 2022 6:15 am I was missing the inclusion LIBOR costs. By using this, everything aligned more. I tried out DCA-ing and that caused the underperformance to be less bad, but it is still susceptible to sequence of return risk. If the bad times happen 15 years in, DCA will have less impact relative to account size
Definitely need to include borrowing costs.

But isn’t LIBOR rigged, and that’s why it’s being replaced by SOFR?
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randyharris
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by randyharris »

Tellurius wrote: Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:49 am If the HEDGEFUNDIE chart in the first post of this thread were to be updated now, what total would it show?
I am out of town for this next week, but will post an update when I return
Hydromod
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Hydromod »

randyharris wrote: Sun Jun 12, 2022 1:18 pm I am out of town for this next week, but will post an update when I return
It would be interesting to compare with the composer.trade results I posted.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by LadyGeek »

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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by rawmelodyman »

Hi all, I'm new to board and have just been pointed at HFEA...

I feel for the people who have been following the strategy, and have seen an almost once in a lifetime decline in both equities AND treasuries. My question now would be would this be a great time to be jumping into HFEA? With UPRO riding at a year long low, and TMF at an almost decade long low, surely they must reverse in the not too distant future or has the reverse correlation between these two been broken for ever?
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by hicabob »

rawmelodyman wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:30 am Hi all, I'm new to board and have just been pointed at HFEA...

I feel for the people who have been following the strategy, and have seen an almost once in a lifetime decline in both equities AND treasuries. My question now would be would this be a great time to be jumping into HFEA? With UPRO riding at a year long low, and TMF at an almost decade long low, surely they must reverse in the not too distant future or has the reverse correlation between these two been broken for ever?
the equity drop we are in is one of a "many in a lifetime" event for us old-timers.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Marseille07 »

rawmelodyman wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:30 am Hi all, I'm new to board and have just been pointed at HFEA...

I feel for the people who have been following the strategy, and have seen an almost once in a lifetime decline in both equities AND treasuries. My question now would be would this be a great time to be jumping into HFEA? With UPRO riding at a year long low, and TMF at an almost decade long low, surely they must reverse in the not too distant future or has the reverse correlation between these two been broken for ever?
TMF at a decade long low is irrelevant information. What matters is where the Ten (or whatever duration-matching yield you want to look at) goes.

I see the Ten hitting 4% by EOY personally.
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hiddenpower
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by hiddenpower »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:42 am
rawmelodyman wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:30 am Hi all, I'm new to board and have just been pointed at HFEA...

I feel for the people who have been following the strategy, and have seen an almost once in a lifetime decline in both equities AND treasuries. My question now would be would this be a great time to be jumping into HFEA? With UPRO riding at a year long low, and TMF at an almost decade long low, surely they must reverse in the not too distant future or has the reverse correlation between these two been broken for ever?
TMF at a decade long low is irrelevant information. What matters is where the Ten (or whatever duration-matching yield you want to look at) goes.

I see the Ten hitting 4% by EOY personally.
What's currently priced in? I heard something like 10 hikes but not sure what that actually puts us at or if it's all baloney.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Marseille07 »

hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:48 am What's it currently priced in? I heard something like 10 hikes but not sure what that actually puts us at or if it's all bologna.
Well, those FedWatchers expecting hikes is one thing, the Ten actually moving is another.

One thing we do know is that those who thought inflation is tapering last month were dead wrong.
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hiddenpower
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by hiddenpower »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:49 am
hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:48 am What's it currently priced in? I heard something like 10 hikes but not sure what that actually puts us at or if it's all bologna.
Well, those FedWatchers expecting hikes is one thing, the Ten actually moving is another.

One thing we do know is that those who thought inflation is tapering last month were dead wrong.
IDK I feel expectation is the key thing here.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by VTI »

Dang.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Ramjet »

Tellurius wrote: Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:49 am If the HEDGEFUNDIE chart in the first post of this thread were to be updated now, what total would it show?
I started late June (I think) of 2019 and as far as I can tell I am about even with the S&P 500 over that time frame
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by hiddenpower »

Based on the CME futures probabilities, 4% is the expectation by EOY
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Marseille07 »

hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:08 am IDK I feel expectation is the key thing here.
Expectation of what, though?

Those FedWatchers are looking at the Fed. TMF is looking at 18 years of bond duration. Very different expectations.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by hiddenpower »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:45 am
hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:08 am IDK I feel expectation is the key thing here.
Expectation of what, though?

Those FedWatchers are looking at the Fed. TMF is looking at 18 years of bond duration. Very different expectations.
https://imgur.com/a/G2u8P6c flat-lines at around 4%
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Marseille07 »

hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:46 am https://imgur.com/a/G2u8P6c flat-lines at around 4%
Right, but that's still the FF rate, not long-term bond yields expectations.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by hiddenpower »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:48 am
hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:46 am https://imgur.com/a/G2u8P6c flat-lines at around 4%
Right, but that's still the FF rate, not long-term bond yields expectations.
Duration and interest rates are intertwined. I would expect flattening in the FFR to result in flattening yields.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Marseille07 »

hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:49 am Duration and interest rates are intertwined. I would expect flattening in the FFR to result in flattening yields.
Let me just say that imo those FedWatchers are wrong. I can't prove it today, of course; we just have to wait and see.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Ramjet »

Ramjet wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 9:25 am
Tellurius wrote: Sun Jun 12, 2022 8:49 am If the HEDGEFUNDIE chart in the first post of this thread were to be updated now, what total would it show?
I started late June (I think) of 2019 and as far as I can tell I am about even with the S&P 500 over that time frame
Well maybe not after today :annoyed
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by corpgator »

hicabob wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:37 am
rawmelodyman wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:30 am Hi all, I'm new to board and have just been pointed at HFEA...

I feel for the people who have been following the strategy, and have seen an almost once in a lifetime decline in both equities AND treasuries. My question now would be would this be a great time to be jumping into HFEA? With UPRO riding at a year long low, and TMF at an almost decade long low, surely they must reverse in the not too distant future or has the reverse correlation between these two been broken for ever?
the equity drop we are in is one of a "many in a lifetime" event for us old-timers.
But not with treasuries at the same time.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by hiddenpower »

Wellp back to work. !remindme 30 years. I guess 1x equities is dangerous enough
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by freebond »

Leveraged ETFs (image)

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RonSea
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by RonSea »

I'm not participating in HEFE but I feel like if I were I would get out.

Correlations between equities and treasuries have been consistently positive since mid-2020 and show no sign of changing. It seems there's somewhat significant predictability in future correlations based on recent correlations. I would wait until correlations show sign of returning negative before re-entering the strategy, otherwise it's massively more risky. This can of course pay-off if they correlate and both go up but the point of this strategy was to leverage because of the low risk.

I exited NTSX in mid-2021 because of this and I'm glad I did. There was quite a bit of luck in that decision but I made it because of the my risk assessment, not because I predicted they would drop.
Last edited by RonSea on Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by hiddenpower »

RonSea wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:11 pm I'm not participating in HEFE but I feel like if I were I would get out.

Correlations between equities and treasuries have been consistently positive since mid-2020 and show no sign of changing. It seems there's somewhat significant predictability between these correlations based on recent trends. Why would you not wait until correlations show sign of returning negative before re-entering the strategy, otherwise it's massively more risky. This can of course pay-off if they correlate and both go up but the point of this strategy was to leverage because of the low risk.

I exited NTSX in mid-2021 because of this and I'm glad I did. There was quite a bit of luck in that decision but I made it because of the my risk assessment, not because I predicted they would drop.
It could also be the worst possible time to get out.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by RonSea »

hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:12 pm
RonSea wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:11 pm I'm not participating in HEFE but I feel like if I were I would get out.

Correlations between equities and treasuries have been consistently positive since mid-2020 and show no sign of changing. It seems there's somewhat significant predictability between these correlations based on recent trends. Why would you not wait until correlations show sign of returning negative before re-entering the strategy, otherwise it's massively more risky. This can of course pay-off if they correlate and both go up but the point of this strategy was to leverage because of the low risk.

I exited NTSX in mid-2021 because of this and I'm glad I did. There was quite a bit of luck in that decision but I made it because of the my risk assessment, not because I predicted they would drop.
It could also be the worst possible time to get out.
It could be. Like I said, they could correlate and both move positive.

But the long-term appeal for a strategy with such high leverage is gone without negative correlations, you may as well just leverage equities. But also of course no metric is very predictive and correlations could quickly return to negative, and waiting risks having you re-enter after having missed out on a significant boom opportunity.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by hiddenpower »

RonSea wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:16 pm
hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:12 pm
RonSea wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:11 pm I'm not participating in HEFE but I feel like if I were I would get out.

Correlations between equities and treasuries have been consistently positive since mid-2020 and show no sign of changing. It seems there's somewhat significant predictability between these correlations based on recent trends. Why would you not wait until correlations show sign of returning negative before re-entering the strategy, otherwise it's massively more risky. This can of course pay-off if they correlate and both go up but the point of this strategy was to leverage because of the low risk.

I exited NTSX in mid-2021 because of this and I'm glad I did. There was quite a bit of luck in that decision but I made it because of the my risk assessment, not because I predicted they would drop.
It could also be the worst possible time to get out.
It could be. Like I said, they could correlate and both move positive.

But the long-term appeal for a strategy with such high leverage is gone without negative correlations, you may as well just leverage equities. But also of course no metric is very predictive and correlations could quickly return to negative, and waiting risks having you re-enter after having missed out on a significant boom opportunity.
it's like pulling back a slingshot :happy
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Marseille07 »

hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:25 pm it's like pulling back a slingshot :happy
Yes, except that one sligshot might take 5 years to pull back.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by hiddenpower »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:27 pm
hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:25 pm it's like pulling back a slingshot :happy
Yes, except that one sligshot might take 5 years to pull back.
FFR >4% would be crazy.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Marseille07 »

hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:27 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:27 pm
hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:25 pm it's like pulling back a slingshot :happy
Yes, except that one sligshot might take 5 years to pull back.
FFR >4% would be crazy.
:confused Why? Study the 70s and see what Volcker did.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by hiddenpower »

[delete duplicated]
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by hiddenpower »

hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:43 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:42 pm
hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:27 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:27 pm
hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:25 pm it's like pulling back a slingshot :happy
Yes, except that one sligshot might take 5 years to pull back.
FFR >4% would be crazy.
:confused Why? Study the 70s and see what Volcker did.
Because everyone says it so it must be true.

But real talk I believe people say it can't go far above 4% due to government debt, things cracking etc. If anyone experienced in bonds could elaborate on this theory, that would be awesome.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by elderwise »

Would FFR reaching 4% mean TMF goes to 0 or near 0?

:confused
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Marseille07 »

hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:44 pm Because everyone says it so it must be true.

But real talk I believe people say it can't go far above 4% due to government debt, things cracking etc. If anyone experienced in bonds could elaborate on this theory, that would be awesome.
Those narratives are nonsense. I heard the same thing when the Ten hit 1.5%, 2% and 2.5%.

The only way out is if somehow CPI starts coming down without the FFR going higher by then.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by hiddenpower »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:09 pm
hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 12:44 pm Because everyone says it so it must be true.

But real talk I believe people say it can't go far above 4% due to government debt, things cracking etc. If anyone experienced in bonds could elaborate on this theory, that would be awesome.
Those narratives are nonsense. I heard the same thing when the Ten hit 1.5%, 2% and 2.5%.

The only way out is if somehow CPI starts coming down without the FFR going higher by then.
Doesn't the CPI lag by like 6 months though? At this rate time to put ones head in the sand
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Marseille07 »

hiddenpower wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:14 pm Doesn't the CPI lag by like 6 months though? At this rate time to put ones head in the sand
The 8.6% number that just came out is comparing May 2022 vs May 2021. We don't have the June data yet but the lag is only one month.

There's also a month-over-month number, and this number fooled a bunch of posters last month as they thought inflation was tapering.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by TheDoctor91 »

Pain!
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by firebirdparts »

elderwise wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:01 pm Would FFR reaching 4% mean TMF goes to 0 or near 0?

:confused
Near is a relative term, so let's just say it's already near zero. It's about $12 a share. It was 46 during the money printer.

Now, if it's all about just how big is the drawdown, all I can say is, it's big. I don't want to have to keep track of exact HFEA, but it would be interesting for somebody running it in isolation to tell us where we are today. I would say the drawdown is half, but when it drops 10% in a single day, you have to talk fast to say where it is.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Crushtheturtle »

I'm assuming if UPRO, TQQQ, and TMF fall far enough in price, the managers do a reverse split?

Hold me.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by elderwise »

Crushtheturtle wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:16 pm I'm assuming if UPRO, TQQQ, and TMF fall far enough in price, the managers do a reverse split?

Hold me.
YES that is what happens with Inverse 3x Funds as well. when they fall below a certain $ they do reverse split.

I think conversely, when they shoot up a lot they do forward splits too.

It would be ironic tqqq had a forward split of 1:2, and hopefully we dont see a reverse split 2:1 or worse than that.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by VTI »

Crushtheturtle wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:16 pm I'm assuming if UPRO, TQQQ, and TMF fall far enough in price, the managers do a reverse split?

Hold me.
The various leveraged "bear" funds have done plenty of reverse splits over the last few years, so I imagine the "bull" versions will, too.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by firebirdparts »

Obviously yes. As necessary.
This time is the same
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by elderwise »

All I can say is this sounds such an excellent time to get started into this strategy..

DCA..slowly over next 8 to 10 months.

But again I am not in it, too much uncertainty..
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Dry-Drink »

BayoMoon wrote: Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:05 pm Maybe I'm just ignorant but I liked TMF at 26 ... so I *LOVE* TMF at 20 !!!!!
Boy do I have a deal for you then lmao.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by e5116 »

Dry-Drink wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 2:59 pm
BayoMoon wrote: Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:05 pm Maybe I'm just ignorant but I liked TMF at 26 ... so I *LOVE* TMF at 20 !!!!!
Boy do I have a deal for you then lmao.
Yep...46 in August 2020, to 11 now. Yowza, 76% decline in less than two years. Although doesn't take into consideration the yield/dividends paid out. Still, quite a haircut.

I had planned to enter the strategy for a portion of Roth mid-year, I may be further delayed, bahaha.
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Jags4186 »

firebirdparts wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:26 pm
elderwise wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 1:01 pm Would FFR reaching 4% mean TMF goes to 0 or near 0?

:confused
Near is a relative term, so let's just say it's already near zero. It's about $12 a share. It was 46 during the money printer.

Now, if it's all about just how big is the drawdown, all I can say is, it's big. I don't want to have to keep track of exact HFEA, but it would be interesting for somebody running it in isolation to tell us where we are today. I would say the drawdown is half, but when it drops 10% in a single day, you have to talk fast to say where it is.
For someone who started say July 1 2019, they would be up approximately 6% after today's loss vs. roughly +42% for the SP500. The drawdown is roughly 58%.

On the bright side you've actually outperformed the Vanguard Total Bond Index over that time period.
BayStater
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by BayStater »

At the least, this pain has been a massively expensive lesson for me about greed and right-sizing your bets. Thank god I didn't do this in my 401k. Thank god I have decades to learn from my mistakes.

I'm bummed about where the strategy stands. I've lost a significant amount of money, even after right-sizing (but too little too late). I'm worried about where our economy is headed. But I'm holding on through the pain.

TBH I'm still a little worried as my "intermediate" fund (account for expenses 10+ years away but before retirement, I'm 25 so this would be like wedding, downpayment, kids, etc.) is in NTSX.
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randyharris
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by randyharris »

BayStater wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:32 pm At the least, this pain has been a massively expensive lesson for me about greed and right-sizing your bets. Thank god I didn't do this in my 401k.
Well said, and spot on. Too much leverage is recipe for blowing up at some point, and a lot of volatility along the way.
Hydromod
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Hydromod »

Jags4186 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:12 pm For someone who started say July 1 2019, they would be up approximately 6% after today's loss vs. roughly +42% for the SP500. The drawdown is roughly 58%.

On the bright side you've actually outperformed the Vanguard Total Bond Index over that time period.
That's about when I started, but I've learned a bunch from trying things and paid a bit extra for the lessons. I'm just glad that I didn't start last year, that would have been painful. But this is the play part of my portfolio, as it should be during the shakedown period.
Jdogoh00
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Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Post by Jdogoh00 »

BayStater wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 3:32 pm At the least, this pain has been a massively expensive lesson for me about greed and right-sizing your bets. Thank god I didn't do this in my 401k. Thank god I have decades to learn from my mistakes.

I'm bummed about where the strategy stands. I've lost a significant amount of money, even after right-sizing (but too little too late). I'm worried about where our economy is headed. But I'm holding on through the pain.

TBH I'm still a little worried as my "intermediate" fund (account for expenses 10+ years away but before retirement, I'm 25 so this would be like wedding, downpayment, kids, etc.) is in NTSX.
If you are 25 and you believe in the strategy, let it ride. You have 40 years of earnings ahead of you. This one investment early in your career is not going to break you.

Just put future contributions elsewhere.
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