Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
- drumboy256
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Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Can't help but love days like today......
Promise is one thing. Fulfilling that promise is quite another. - Sir Alex Ferguson |
20% IVV / 40% IBIT / 20% IXUS / 20% VGLT + chill
- drumboy256
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Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Again, can't help but love days like today....
Promise is one thing. Fulfilling that promise is quite another. - Sir Alex Ferguson |
20% IVV / 40% IBIT / 20% IXUS / 20% VGLT + chill
Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Yep. Back up to the Apr 3 local peak. Need several more to get to the Feb 2 level.
Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Good week to be in AVUV
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Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
I tilted 10% to SCV about a month ago I'm currently fighting the urge not sell, heh.
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Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Really good lesson that a huge part of the return of an asset class or for that matter the market as a whole, occurs in very short unpredictable bursts. Need to already be there when it happens. Buy & Hold Tight.
Dave
Dave
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Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
I watched a Merryman video about tilting to a small cap value index for 10% of my retirement investments while on the treadmill a few months ago. This was to tilt my returns higher than VTSAX over time. So I did that and the share price went down while I watched VTSAX go up. Now I am almost even at my cost of this value fund. Once I get back to even, I'll put it into VTSAX. Moral of this story, stay with your original plan and don't chase higher returns.
Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
So your investment is almost flat over a few months and you’re abandoning the strategy?renovator20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 09, 2023 7:31 am I watched a Merryman video about tilting to a small cap value index for 10% of my retirement investments while on the treadmill a few months ago. This was to tilt my returns higher than VTSAX over time. So I did that and the share price went down while I watched VTSAX go up. Now I am almost even at my cost of this value fund. Once I get back to even, I'll put it into VTSAX. Moral of this story, stay with your original plan and don't chase higher returns.
What do you do when bonds are flat/down and/or when stocks are flat/down? Do you sell them and go to cash until they’ve “gone up” again? It may generally be a good idea to have some kind of policy that describes when you would/wouldn’t change your portfolio
Crom laughs at your Four Winds
Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Moral of the story is that tilts may offer a benefit over decades, and that fiddling with your portfolio over a period of months is unlikely to benefit anybody but your by-the-hour therapist.renovator20 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 09, 2023 7:31 am I watched a Merryman video about tilting to a small cap value index for 10% of my retirement investments while on the treadmill a few months ago. This was to tilt my returns higher than VTSAX over time. So I did that and the share price went down while I watched VTSAX go up. Now I am almost even at my cost of this value fund. Once I get back to even, I'll put it into VTSAX. Moral of this story, stay with your original plan and don't chase higher returns.
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Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Some days I enjoy the volatility of SCV, others I wish I was plain-jane 3-Fund and Chill.
One strategy I've found that can scratch the factor-tilt itch is to open an account outside your main brokerage and just DCA into that. M1 is ideally suited for this. I opened one there in Aug '21 and started a weekly DCA into a Ben Felix inspired Factor portfolio. People sometimes knock M1, but for auto-invest buy and hold a specific asset allocation it is tough to beat.
I also have a 10% tilt to value in my VG brokerage, but it's a minor annoyance to have to manually purchase ETF shares there to keep my tilt via Avantis ETFs (AVUV, AVDV) instead of just letting my DCA run automatically via VTSAX and VTIAX. Kind of wish I'd never started a tilt there so I could have everything on autopilot.
One strategy I've found that can scratch the factor-tilt itch is to open an account outside your main brokerage and just DCA into that. M1 is ideally suited for this. I opened one there in Aug '21 and started a weekly DCA into a Ben Felix inspired Factor portfolio. People sometimes knock M1, but for auto-invest buy and hold a specific asset allocation it is tough to beat.
I also have a 10% tilt to value in my VG brokerage, but it's a minor annoyance to have to manually purchase ETF shares there to keep my tilt via Avantis ETFs (AVUV, AVDV) instead of just letting my DCA run automatically via VTSAX and VTIAX. Kind of wish I'd never started a tilt there so I could have everything on autopilot.
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Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
My investing rules: diversification, patience, and fearlessness in the face of market collapses.
Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Nothing, unfortunately
Crom laughs at your Four Winds
Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
IJS / QQQ shows that since around 2006, there has been steady underperformance with a sharper downturn starting in 2017. It has bounced back a bit in the middle of 2020 and again in 2022, but 2023 is showing another downturn.
Does it mean anything? Let's see. I'd for sure be far more comfortable holding IJS compared to QQQ for the next 10 years. I think mega tech is extremely overvalued after being pumped up again. It simply can't last forever. That doesn't mean anyone can time it because it can stay like this or get worse for years. But I definitely believe it is the classic recency bias if anyone seriously thinks this trend is going to continue on and on. Reversions and different market cycles happen throughout history. This is not likely to be a different time.
Anytime I see significant and extended outperformance (like with US market cap weighted and especially mega tech), I'm very wary.
Does it mean anything? Let's see. I'd for sure be far more comfortable holding IJS compared to QQQ for the next 10 years. I think mega tech is extremely overvalued after being pumped up again. It simply can't last forever. That doesn't mean anyone can time it because it can stay like this or get worse for years. But I definitely believe it is the classic recency bias if anyone seriously thinks this trend is going to continue on and on. Reversions and different market cycles happen throughout history. This is not likely to be a different time.
Anytime I see significant and extended outperformance (like with US market cap weighted and especially mega tech), I'm very wary.
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Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
We not mentioning the big day Friday?
Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Really??? Can you expand on why you think Friday’s returns are worth noting? I may be missing something.
I’m long on small cap value, but don’t see one day returns as anything more than noise. This is a marathon, not a sprint. Why should I care about one day’s returns?
"Pretired", working 20 h/wk. AA 75/25: 30% TSM, 19% value (VFVA/AVUV), 18% Int'l LC, 8% emerging, 25% GFund/VBTLX. Military pension ≈60% of expenses. Pension+SS@age 70 ≈100% of expenses.
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Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
That’s fair. I agree with the sentiment, just thought that 112 pages of discussing 1 day returns going back years on big up days would merit at least one mention on another big up day.calmaniac wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 4:10 pmReally??? Can you expand on why you think Friday’s returns are worth noting? I may be missing something.
I’m long on small cap value, but don’t see one day returns as anything more than noise. This is a marathon, not a sprint. Why should I care about one day’s returns?
Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Fair enough! Good point.donaldfair71 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 4:13 pmThat’s fair. I agree with the sentiment, just thought that 112 pages of discussing 1 day returns going back years on big up days would merit at least one mention on another big up day.calmaniac wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 4:10 pmReally??? Can you expand on why you think Friday’s returns are worth noting? I may be missing something.
I’m long on small cap value, but don’t see one day returns as anything more than noise. This is a marathon, not a sprint. Why should I care about one day’s returns?
I worry about the people that get into SCV and expect to see some results in 1-2 years…and then get discouraged. Maybe I need to chill.
"Pretired", working 20 h/wk. AA 75/25: 30% TSM, 19% value (VFVA/AVUV), 18% Int'l LC, 8% emerging, 25% GFund/VBTLX. Military pension ≈60% of expenses. Pension+SS@age 70 ≈100% of expenses.
Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
donaldfair71 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 4:13 pmThat’s fair. I agree with the sentiment, just thought that 112 pages of discussing 1 day returns going back years on big up days would merit at least one mention on another big up day.calmaniac wrote: ↑Mon Sep 04, 2023 4:10 pmReally??? Can you expand on why you think Friday’s returns are worth noting? I may be missing something.
I’m long on small cap value, but don’t see one day returns as anything more than noise. This is a marathon, not a sprint. Why should I care about one day’s returns?
I agree with calmaniac and I don't think it's worth bumping this thread whenever we have a day like this. But I do keep an eye on this thread and I noticed the returns Friday. I've got allocations to AVUV and AVDV. Been at this strategy since 2012. Tax loss harvested into Avantis ETFs near the covid lows. Holding on and staying the course.
Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
And days like today prove why we shouldn't celebrate one day wins. I won't post the box again but it's basically a worse day for SCV than it was a good day on Friday.
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Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
International SCV ain’t so bad
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
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Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Not at all. Throw in emerging value that tilts smaller, not bad everywhere.
Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
So expected returns are even higher. Rejoice!?
Crom laughs at your Four Winds
Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Love the optimism!
Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
In all seriousness, it would be nice if we have a daily discussion thread to remove some of those pent up market timing energy
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Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Right? Kind of my goal in rekindling the thread, +2% used to lead to some joy in the rejoice thread.jarjarM wrote: ↑Tue Sep 05, 2023 4:34 pmIn all seriousness, it would be nice if we have a daily discussion thread to remove some of those pent up market timing energy
Everything doesn’t have to be serious all the time.
Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
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