In real life, I think the tail risks are probably the biggest danger for most people on this forum. Bogleheads generally don't live paycheck-to-paycheck or pay some investment advisor 2 percent. We're aware that foresight plus planning plus persistence equals a successful retirement. Barring something Real Bad, we're all going to be fine.blahblahsunshine wrote: ↑Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:10 pm The exogenic tail risk scenerio is one that deserves some thought. There is some non-zero chance that some game changing event happens. Could be 1938 germany, could be an asteroid, plague, and early death, who knows. There are a couple ways you can think about something like this: 1) How do I position myself to avoid or minimize its impact on me, and 2) perhaps one should enjoy the here and now before said incident occurs. Net, net, when I start getting down to minute retirement model survivability differences these long tailed exogenic risks take become a real consideration.
However, if there is something in the next 30-60 years that isn't business as usual, that will trip up some Bogleheads too. It might be the folks who are 50/50; it might be the ones who are 100 percent equities. I don't think it's possible for most of us to completely disaster-proof ourselves (unless you're rolling with $100 million in savings or something), but mayyybee the right asset allocation can help. Historically, 75-25 or 80-20 look like the best bets. Will choosing that course make a difference? Who knows? At some point, you have to stop trying to figure out every little thing and make peace with your decisions.