NYC Upper West Side, Apartment purchase

[NYGiantsFan]

Currently my daughter lives In Hell's Kitchen 10th and 50th.

This is slightly unsafe area late in the night. Also, she is in for a big rent upside surprise when renewal will come in. Rents are moving up very quickly in the city.

[muffins14]

Currently my daughter lives In Hell's Kitchen 10th and 50th.

This is slightly unsafe area late in the night. Also, she is in for a big rent upside surprise when renewal will come in. Rents are moving up very quickly in the city.

I would gently disagree with the safety concern in Hells Kitchen. I assume she is generally competent and aware of her surroundings etc and would be fine. Crime rates have been falling over the years and it is a good, safe, neighborhood with good train access and a number of restaurants, bars, etc

[JackoC]

Currently my daughter lives In Hell's Kitchen 10th and 50th.

This is slightly unsafe area late in the night. Also, she is in for a big rent upside surprise when renewal will come in. Rents are moving up very quickly in the city.

But assuming one doesn't taxi/Uber (cost, stuck in traffic at least at normal hours) to work the person will be on the subway and walking to/from station to 168th and Amsterdam, in a job that usually includes rotational night work (OK then maybe take taxi/Uber). If one's sensitivity to crime risk is such as to worry at 50th and 10th that might be a life of general anxiety about crime. I won't argue with the characterization per se though. I believe 'slightly unsafe' is fair is compared to where I live (11 blocks down, 2 over and 8 minutes on the ferry ). Even on Central Park West it's not *super* safe if you like to stroll in the Park at night, go to edgy place to party as a 25 yr old might want to, take the subway to 168th St, etc. As opposed to safe at all times and available methods of transport, only stipulation avoid actively looking for trouble. Few if any places in NY meet that standard IMO. But I don't worry a lot about crime when in NY (pretty often, Brooklyn sometimes Queens where I'm from originally besides Manhattan) in places/situations/times of day I'm there. A bit more than some years ago I'd have to say, still less than when I was young.

[Valuethinker]

At same age I started a promising career in Manhattan. Biggest mistake I made was buying rather than renting at that age. Was simply too soon to lock in a long term investment, and real estate is NOT a good short term investment. In my case I know for certain in hindsight I would have come out better had I rented and been more patient to buy later.

This is it. 25 is not 30.

30 one can have a long term partner, be thinking about kids. Career going into high gear.

25 as a medical resident? Most important thing is to get enough sleep. Enjoy living in NYC if you can, but really, as much quality sleep as is possible, in the context of an incredibly demanding period of your professional life.

There's a risk housing prices shoot away. NYC is NYC, but the problem of huge office vacancy rates still persists. What a city center *is*, post Covid, still remains undetermined. So it's hard to see living in Manhattan as a "no brainer" in that context.

Manhattan has like 2-4 “city centers” now, and the OP is not planning to live in one, but instead in the UWS. Manhattan, with its density and public transit, is unlike many other cities that are overrepresented by parking lots and people who drive in for work and then leave immediately at 4pm. People actually live in Manhattan, which makes the “post Covid city center” less of an open question than places like downtown Detroit or financial district San Francisco. The Upper West Side is quite residential, so I dont think they need to worry.

I take the point - UWS is definitely residential (almost entirely? Except maybe Columbus Circle?).

Office Real Estate is just one of the key drivers of the NYC economy (the so-called Finance Insurance Real Estate FIRE sectors). So if there aren't the people in the offices, and there aren't as many jobs that pay so well, then the city as a whole - including its residential RE - will suffer. I am old enough to remember the 1970s, when NYC was in a slump.

There are of course other important drivers. Tourism is a very important one for big cities the world over -- Paris, London (I know, I live there!) etc. Entertainment. I am not forecasting NYC will collapse in RE prices. But it may just not rise that quickly. So FOMO could, arguably, be a lesser worry?

WIthout the super-heat of Finance and RE to keep the steam running, residential RE in Manhattan may just not do that well.

[beyou]

Office Real Estate is just one of the key drivers of the NYC economy (the so-called Finance Insurance Real Estate FIRE sectors). So if there aren't the people in the offices, and there aren't as many jobs that pay so well, then the city as a whole - including its residential RE - will suffer. I am old enough to remember the 1970s, when NYC was in a slump.

…

WIthout the super-heat of Finance and RE to keep the steam running, residential RE in Manhattan may just not do that well.

Regarding finance, I worked in the financial industry mostly in Manhattan for almost 40 years. I timed my retirement mainly around the fact that many financial industry jobs, including mine, were moving to LCOL areas. I did not want to leave the area, so it was either find one of the jobs that have not yet left, or retire, so I decided to retire and not look. Many firms are moving the vast majority of jobs out of NYC even if they maintain a presence there, often to places like NC, TX, TN, AZ and overseas. This has got to impact the residential real estate market, these were among the highest paid jobs in NYC, and lots of them left for good. That along with the remote work movement is making it a luxury not a necessity to live in a place like NYC. Not enough of a driver to have real estate keep climbing as it had.

[muffins14]

Office Real Estate is just one of the key drivers of the NYC economy (the so-called Finance Insurance Real Estate FIRE sectors). So if there aren't the people in the offices, and there aren't as many jobs that pay so well, then the city as a whole - including its residential RE - will suffer. I am old enough to remember the 1970s, when NYC was in a slump.

…

WIthout the super-heat of Finance and RE to keep the steam running, residential RE in Manhattan may just not do that well.

Regarding finance, I worked in the financial industry mostly in Manhattan for almost 40 years. I timed my retirement mainly around the fact that many financial industry jobs, including mine, were moving to LCOL areas. I did not want to leave the area, so it was either find one of the jobs that have not yet left, or retire, so I decided to retire and not look. Many firms are moving the vast majority of jobs out of NYC even if they maintain a presence there, often to places like NC, TX, TN, AZ and overseas. This has got to impact the residential real estate market, these were among the highest paid jobs in NYC, and lots of them left for good. That along with the remote work movement is making it a luxury not a necessity to live in a place like NYC. Not enough of a driver to have real estate keep climbing as it had.

Yet real estate continues to climb, finance and tech jobs continue to pay the most in NYC and Bay Area relative to other places, and JPMorgan is finishing a gigantic office tower. I don’t think there is data that the vast majority of jobs are leaving.

Anyway, this is not helpful for the OP so I’ll stay on topic

[JordanIB]

Since OP clarified some details, people seem to be posting and offering opinions as if OP's daughter isn't already living in the city and making the commute to her job in Washington Heights. I think she's fully capable of determining her own on comfort level with her living location and commute.

I tend to agree with other comments that finding a broker that specializes on the UWS, if that's what she is set on, would be helpful. Simply looking at the agencies that have offices on the UWS would probably be a start. You can use their sites and Streeteasy to get a feel for what areas certain brokers focus on. I also agree that renting still has a lot of utility in the city vs. buying, particularly if she may not be in the apartment for a long period of time.

[MarkNYC]

In a prior thread, the OP indicated the 25 year old daughter is a Physician Assistant (not a resident) who earns about $160K and started working and presumably living in Manhattan earlier this year.

As someone who has lived on the Upper West Side (Lincoln Square) for 30+ years, I agree with those who urge caution against buying an apartment a bit too quickly. For me, there would be two primary reasons to rent for a least a couple more years: (1) as was mentioned, life circumstances can easily change for a 25 year old, and renting would provide some flexibility and give the individual more time to determine if Manhattan is the place they want to make their long-term home, and (2) renting for a couple more years would give the individual time to get a better feel and appreciation of the differences in the various neighborhoods that make up the UWS, allowing for a more informed decision about location if buying is the eventual decision.

[David76]

(1) as was mentioned, life circumstances can easily change for a 25 year old, and renting would provide some flexibility and give the individual more time to determine if Manhattan is the place they want to make their long-term home,...

I agree. Most NYC residents end up in Westchester and the Hudson Valley at some point. If I were the OPs daughter, I'd apply for a transfer to New York Presbyterian's Bronxville branch and buy an apartment there. Maybe take in a flat-mate, to cover half of the mortgage. But that's me.

[muffins14]

(1) as was mentioned, life circumstances can easily change for a 25 year old, and renting would provide some flexibility and give the individual more time to determine if Manhattan is the place they want to make their long-term home,...

I agree. Most NYC residents end up in Westchester and the Hudson Valley at some point. If I were the OPs daughter, I'd apply for a transfer to New York Presbyterian's Bronxville branch and buy an apartment there. Maybe take in a flat-mate, to cover half of the mortgage. But that's me.

8.5 million people live in NYC. 8.5 million people do not live in Westchester and the Hudson Valley. I am not sure where you are collecting your statistics on migration patterns.

Walking around and experiencing the real world, I am really at a loss when the online discussion seems to be that NYC is a crime-ridden place where "everyone moves to Westchester", yet somehow more people live in NYC than Westchester, and "the jobs are leaving", yet there 5M jobs in the city, and "crime is scary, look out", yet crime has been falling. Lots of glass half-empty to go around.

Many 25-year olds prefer to be in the city for more social, cultural, career, and networking opportunities, vs being in Westchester or the Hudson Valley at a young age.

[retired@50]

Yet real estate continues to climb, finance and tech jobs continue to pay the most in NYC and Bay Area relative to other places, and JPMorgan is finishing a gigantic office tower. I don’t think there is data that the vast majority of jobs are leaving.

Have you not heard of Y'all Street? Texas' burgeoning financial hub.

JPMorgan Chase now has more employees in Texas (31,000) than in New York state (28,300). In Texas, about 12,700 employees work out of a 50-acre campus in the Dallas suburb of Plano, where meeting rooms are decorated with saddles and Western wear and on-site eateries include a Texas barbecue stand. The complex, comprising four buildings and 1.5 million square feet of office space, has doubled its employees since it opened in 2017.

Source: https://www.wsj.com/finance/welcome-to- ... _permalink

Regards,

[beyou]

Office Real Estate is just one of the key drivers of the NYC economy (the so-called Finance Insurance Real Estate FIRE sectors). So if there aren't the people in the offices, and there aren't as many jobs that pay so well, then the city as a whole - including its residential RE - will suffer. I am old enough to remember the 1970s, when NYC was in a slump.

…

WIthout the super-heat of Finance and RE to keep the steam running, residential RE in Manhattan may just not do that well.

Regarding finance, I worked in the financial industry mostly in Manhattan for almost 40 years. I timed my retirement mainly around the fact that many financial industry jobs, including mine, were moving to LCOL areas. I did not want to leave the area, so it was either find one of the jobs that have not yet left, or retire, so I decided to retire and not look. Many firms are moving the vast majority of jobs out of NYC even if they maintain a presence there, often to places like NC, TX, TN, AZ and overseas. This has got to impact the residential real estate market, these were among the highest paid jobs in NYC, and lots of them left for good. That along with the remote work movement is making it a luxury not a necessity to live in a place like NYC. Not enough of a driver to have real estate keep climbing as it had.

Yet real estate continues to climb, finance and tech jobs continue to pay the most in NYC and Bay Area relative to other places, and JPMorgan is finishing a gigantic office tower. I don’t think there is data that the vast majority of jobs are leaving.

Anyway, this is not helpful for the OP so I’ll stay on topic

I think it IS helpful, real estate can go in cycles, and 5 years is simply not long enough to just ignore the potential we are at a near term peak. I have no opinion on the long term timing of cycles, but I know you can't be sure to make more on buying vs renting if only considering a 5 year time horizon.

And IMO during this particular 5 year horizon, there is significant downside risk. Your comment that JP Morgan is building a new tower is a backward looking data point. Many projects started before the pandemic, that would not start today. And I personally know people at JP Morgan who were told their jobs would move to Ohio or other locations and the option of staying in NYC was not going to be there much longer. I worked for one of the largest US insurance/mutual fund businesses and the vast majority of their employees were moved away from NYC. And they did so because our competitors were doing so and we felt need to keep costs in line with the industry. Most firms seem to be keeping their trading floors in NYC but moving all the support jobs elsewhere. Attorneys, tech, finance/accounting jobs are absolutely leaving. My firm even told the traders and portfolio mangers they should volunteer to relocate since in the longer term they will hire new staff out of state. They left a huge office footprint with intention of leasing a fraction of the space in NYC. This can't be good for the short term local economy. At best there is little growth opportunity in the near term for real estate, given higher rates, growth in values last few years and reduction in decent paying jobs in NYC. Renting may well be best over the near term for those who can't ride out the short term risks.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jackkelly/ ... s-with-it/

"The Mass Exodus"

https://www.bcnys.org/news/report-finan ... ration-and

“While other places are growing, New York has seen stagnation or loss in the market with both businesses and residents relocating. This is a crucial industry to not just the city, but the entire state - and not one that can be taken for granted any longer.”

[David76]

(1) as was mentioned, life circumstances can easily change for a 25 year old, and renting would provide some flexibility and give the individual more time to determine if Manhattan is the place they want to make their long-term home,...

I agree. Most NYC residents end up in Westchester and the Hudson Valley at some point. If I were the OPs daughter, I'd apply for a transfer to New York Presbyterian's Bronxville branch and buy an apartment there. Maybe take in a flat-mate, to cover half of the mortgage. But that's me.

8.5 million people live in NYC. 8.5 million people do not live in Westchester and the Hudson Valley. I am not sure where you are collecting your statistics on migration patterns.

Walking around and experiencing the real world, I am really at a loss when the online discussion seems to be that NYC is a crime-ridden place where "everyone moves to Westchester", yet somehow more people live in NYC than Westchester, and "the jobs are leaving", yet there 5M jobs in the city, and "crime is scary, look out", yet crime has been falling. Lots of glass half-empty to go around.

Many 25-year olds prefer to be in the city for more social, cultural, career, and networking opportunities, vs being in Westchester or the Hudson Valley at a young age.

Well, it just seems that way. NYC natives have been migrating north to get on the property ladder for decades.

[muffins14]

Yet real estate continues to climb, finance and tech jobs continue to pay the most in NYC and Bay Area relative to other places, and JPMorgan is finishing a gigantic office tower. I don’t think there is data that the vast majority of jobs are leaving.

Have you not heard of Y'all Street? Texas' burgeoning financial hub.

JPMorgan Chase now has more employees in Texas (31,000) than in New York state (28,300). In Texas, about 12,700 employees work out of a 50-acre campus in the Dallas suburb of Plano, where meeting rooms are decorated with saddles and Western wear and on-site eateries include a Texas barbecue stand. The complex, comprising four buildings and 1.5 million square feet of office space, has doubled its employees since it opened in 2017.

Source: https://www.wsj.com/finance/welcome-to- ... _permalink

Regards,

I think a rational person can conclude that JPMorgam having 10% more employees in a state that is 50% larger is not necessarily a sign of certain doom for NY.

[JackoC]

(1) as was mentioned, life circumstances can easily change for a 25 year old, and renting would provide some flexibility and give the individual more time to determine if Manhattan is the place they want to make their long-term home,...

I agree. Most NYC residents end up in Westchester and the Hudson Valley at some point.

8.5 million people live in NYC. 8.5 million people do not live in Westchester and the Hudson Valley. I am not sure where you are collecting your statistics on migration patterns.

Walking around and experiencing the real world, I am really at a loss when the online discussion seems to be that NYC is a crime-ridden place where "everyone moves to Westchester", yet somehow more people live in NYC than Westchester, and "the jobs are leaving", yet there 5M jobs in the city, and "crime is scary, look out", yet crime has been falling. Lots of glass half-empty to go around.

Many 25-year olds prefer to be in the city for more social, cultural, career, and networking opportunities, vs being in Westchester or the Hudson Valley at a young age.

All true, but these discussions to begin with leave out the vast majority of NY'ers. The median household income in NY is similar to national. How do those people afford multi-$k/mo rents or 7 figure purchases!!?!? They don't. Several million live in stabilized or public apartments where the rent easily could be $100k (or less) total in 5 yrs, not per year. Discussions here about NY, when not about tourism, are virtually always about young professionals living or moving there, not most people there. Young professionals do IME pretty often taste living in Manhattan or trendy minority of Brooklyn, lately trendy sliver of Queens, or our neck of the woods across the river for a while then move on the suburbs in NYS, NJ or CT. We didn't, others don't, many do.

And again in inner NY area you typically have to assume significantly above CPI appreciation for buying to be attractive purely financially. I've mentioned how my house has appreciated at 3%+ over inflation since 1940 (oldest price I know, it's much older), and similar rate since I bought it in early 1990's. Not so much in the last 5 yrs though, and that's true in the City too generally, more so in the super high end though we're not directly talking about that here. If you assume 3% real appreciation the buy/rent equation may give a strong 'buy'. If you assume inflation flat, probably not. Non-financial reasons to own your own place can be important but typically less so for single people in their 20's. The trade offs between places offered for rent v for sale tend to get sharper with kids. If it's just the same condo/coop buy or rent, buying it means you believe in strong appreciation.

Not just OK appreciation, which is the context of any discussion of what jobs are coming and going, though that's hard to usefully generalize, and you have to predict not just measure what it is now. 'NY will be OK' doesn't mean buy, the way the RE market here tends to be priced.

[retired@50]

I think a rational person can conclude that JPMorgam having 10% more employees in a state that is 50% larger is not necessarily a sign of certain doom for NY.

I don't think NY is doomed, far from it, I love NYC.

I only brought it up because I found it surprising that JPMorgan Chase has more employees in Texas than NY. Not something I would have guessed.

Regards,

[60B4E24B]

Do you mean Columbia Presbyterian on 168 and Broadway?

C'mon here. Does it really matter where OP's daughter works when the question was about finding a reliable agent and possibly funding the purchase?

Upper West Side is a long way from "Columbia Presbyterian Hospital" it appears. Traditionally one did not live "north of the Park" -- I don't know what the situation is now.

This is a pretty ignorant and borderline racist comment. Literally hundreds of thousands of people "live above the park."

[BrendanP]

Do you mean Columbia Presbyterian on 168 and Broadway?

C'mon here. Does it really matter where OP's daughter works when the question was about finding a reliable agent and possibly funding the purchase?

Upper West Side is a long way from "Columbia Presbyterian Hospital" it appears. Traditionally one did not live "north of the Park" -- I don't know what the situation is now.

This is a pretty ignorant and borderline racist comment. Literally hundreds of thousands of people "live above the park."

Ditto- we moved to central Harlem in 2009 as it was one of the few places we could afford in Manhattan. Have never had any issues.
But I guess we are not " traditional." LOL

[NYGiantsFan]

Currently my daughter lives In Hell's Kitchen 10th and 50th.

This is slightly unsafe area late in the night. Also, she is in for a big rent upside surprise when renewal will come in. Rents are moving up very quickly in the city.

I would gently disagree with the safety concern in Hells Kitchen. I assume she is generally competent and aware of her surroundings etc and would be fine. Crime rates have been falling over the years and it is a good, safe, neighborhood with good train access and a number of restaurants, bars, etc

I am frequent walker in Hell's Kitchen. Avenues at 9th Ave and after - they are sketchy after 10-11 PM. You can encounter homeless and smell weed almost on entire 9th Ave starting from Penn Station all the way up on Hell's Kitchen.

[JoeNJ28]

Currently my daughter lives In Hell's Kitchen 10th and 50th.

This is slightly unsafe area late in the night. Also, she is in for a big rent upside surprise when renewal will come in. Rents are moving up very quickly in the city.

I would gently disagree with the safety concern in Hells Kitchen. I assume she is generally competent and aware of her surroundings etc and would be fine. Crime rates have been falling over the years and it is a good, safe, neighborhood with good train access and a number of restaurants, bars, etc

I am frequent walker in Hell's Kitchen. Avenues at 9th Ave and after - they are sketchy after 10-11 PM. You can encounter homeless and smell weed almost on entire 9th Ave starting from Penn Station all the way up on Hell's Kitchen.

Hell’s Kitchen isn’t dangerous after night imo and no the smell of weed doesn’t mean it’s a bad area.

[muffins14]

Currently my daughter lives In Hell's Kitchen 10th and 50th.

This is slightly unsafe area late in the night. Also, she is in for a big rent upside surprise when renewal will come in. Rents are moving up very quickly in the city.

I would gently disagree with the safety concern in Hells Kitchen. I assume she is generally competent and aware of her surroundings etc and would be fine. Crime rates have been falling over the years and it is a good, safe, neighborhood with good train access and a number of restaurants, bars, etc

I am frequent walker in Hell's Kitchen. Avenues at 9th Ave and after - they are sketchy after 10-11 PM. You can encounter homeless and smell weed almost on entire 9th Ave starting from Penn Station all the way up on Hell's Kitchen.

Again, "sketchy" is relative to a person's individual perception. Many places have homeless and weed smell, including Greenwich village, Soho, Park Slope, Tribeca, Williamsburg, Greenpoint, Cobble Hill etc. Weed and some homelessness are not the same thing as actually being dangerous. Some places could have zero homelessness but have shoplifting or have zero weed but have an assault. Or a place could have some homelessness but be a great neighborhood for living in and working in (which is perhaps why someone without a home may want to also spend time there)

[hand]

Does not want to LOSE over 100k renting for the next 5 years.

Reads like a marketing pitch, not a financial analysis.

[Irenaeus]

Perhaps someone already chimed in about it already and I missed it, but another possibility is to live across the Hudson River in New Jersey in a place such as Fort Lee, Edgewater, Englewood, Englewood Cliffs, etc., any of which offers a not very difficult and fairly brief bus commute across the George Washington Bridge which spans the river roughly 1/2-mile north of Columbia Presbyterian Hospital.