I think of BH philosophy as the default setting, and the bar every crazy idea has to clear. I also think it's principally a behavioural strategy, and second a costs strategy. And despite using lots of PE, and hedge funds, and real assets, and trading stocks, etc. someone like David Swensen still strikes me as a BH in principle – rather than a pariah.broncocountry25 wrote: ↑Sat May 27, 2023 7:21 pm What other Bogleheads have done this in the past in their 30's?
I also have started saving for my kids to go to college but feel like college is now a complete waste of money and in 16+ years it will only be worse. Does anyone feel the same!? I really think there is massive upside for families willing to start a business right now who have the smarts from a decade + of business experience.
From 2014, I felt it had become necessary to deviate from the BH approach. We'd never had this kind of monetary policy before, and bond prices had become completely detached from economic reality, and from their normal relationship with the stock market. The logic behind buying Treasuries when you knew central banks would be forced purchasers made sense – but tracking that passively didn't.. You didn't want to be left holding a load of worthless debt – even worse: negative yielding debt. This wasn't long-term market efficiency - it was traders getting ahead of Fed moves; or using bonds as a short-term hedge.
When 60:40, 40:60, etc. went down so hard a few years ago, that was inevitable. It was a bubble. Investing still has to be about looking at an investment and working out if it makes sense for you.. Long-dated bonds at nearly 0% made no sense at all. If I'm advising a friend with $1.4m, I'm certainly not going to say 50:50 stocks and bonds.. I'd be saying 25-50% in alternatives – and alts represent a much larger, much more accessible part of the market now. I think post-covid exposed the flaw in 60:40. I'm not a huge fan of real estate, personally. I think Private Equity and Private Infrastructure are very important asset classes. I think All Weather investing makes more academic sense than simple stock/bond portfolios. When any science/religion stops evolving, it becomes a cult. And you can be quite happy in a cult. It's probably not the best possible place to be.. Also re: college. Unless there's major reform, it's hard to imagine the workplace value of degrees not continuing to decline. Education's a business, and it's been able to run amok.