A time to EVALUATE your jitters

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Robin1234
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by Robin1234 »

I did not find that survey but found a related post viewtopic.php?t=366519
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by rhinOC »

If anyone wants to short a stock, let me know. I’ll buy a share and it will immediately plummet. You’re welcome.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by Robin1234 »

manlymatt83 wrote: Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:20 am Somewhere at some point someone posted a link to a bunch of smart people who made predictions about the market in the past and were wrong over 50% of the time. Anyone have that handy?
I think you are looking for this https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest/
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by mickeyd »

I have the jitters about Bogleheads (or "kinda" BH) who are considering selling their equity position and looking to stuff it in cash/mmf. Do you not understand how this thing works? Hint: buy low sell high!
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Archie Bunker
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by Archie Bunker »

mickeyd wrote: Wed Nov 16, 2022 12:15 pm I have the jitters about Bogleheads (or "kinda" BH) who are considering selling their equity position and looking to stuff it in cash/mmf. Do you not understand how this thing works? Hint: buy low sell high!
I think even Buffett said something like "if you arent willing to hold a stock for 10 years, dont think about buying it to hold for 10 minutes".

Of course, Buffett doesnt buy and hold forever himself, and I think its fair to say his approach has outpaced the usual buy and hold index fund strategy by alot (I think its done 2x the S&P?), but the average (or even 99th percentile) investor just doesnt have that level of skill.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by smooth_rough »

Stocks to get crushed beginning 2023 ?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/29/double- ... anley.html
Leesbro63
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by NearlyRetired »

Leesbro63 wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 4:43 am
smooth_rough wrote: Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:34 pm Stocks to get crushed beginning 2023 ?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/29/double- ... anley.html
Or:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 022-11?amp
Or from the last paragraph in your article..
In regards to a recent note from Goldman Sachs that said the stock market will likely end flat in 2023......
So we have market will tank, market will soar and market will be flat. Which just goes to show that nobody knows nuttin (which we all know)
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by Havoner »

Here are a few more of the big guys outlooks to review and add to the discussion. This kind of makes me wonder how hard it would be to take a chart and have all of their predictions back 15-30 years and then look at the market performance for each of the years. Curious how much validity is in the wisdom and reports from these prestigious institutions or if we would be better off consulting with a fortune tell.

+1 to overvalued likely to drop Back Rock- https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/lit ... k-2023.pdf
+1 overvalued Equities but at least bonds are coming back into fashion! Vanguard- https://investor.vanguard.com/investor- ... al-summary
0 - Goldman says equities will be flat. Also talking up bonds some. Goldman- https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/p ... -outlooks/
+1 Public equities being overvalued, recommend hunting in private equity for deals UBS- https://www.ubs.com/global/en/media/dis ... -2023.html
0- Fidelity says probably choppy volatility but likely flat in equities, Bonds seem to be a bright spot. Fidelity- https://www.fidelity.com/learning-cente ... et-outlook
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by rgs »

NearlyRetired wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 7:03 am So we have market will tank, market will soar and market will be flat. Which just goes to show that nobody knows nuttin (which we all know)
They are all going to be right at some in the point future, but their timing maybe off by a quarter or a year or two :) . Pretty much the same as the dart board with the caveat, these analysts are probably well compensated for offering their views.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by smooth_rough »

Morgan Stanley says stocks are in death zone. Forecasting 26% market decline 2023.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by Leesbro63 »

smooth_rough wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:49 pm Morgan Stanley says stocks are in death zone. Forecasting 26% market decline 2023.
And what did they predict for 2022 in late 2021?
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by Tom_T »

Leesbro63 wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:17 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:49 pm Morgan Stanley says stocks are in death zone. Forecasting 26% market decline 2023.
And what did they predict for 2022 in late 2021?
Last February: "The balance of corporate fundamentals against a less accommodative U.S. Federal Reserve could create modest equity returns, with opportunities for generating alpha."

Let's look at a few (of many!) Morgan Stanley funds for 2022:

MPAIX (Advantage Portfolio) - down 54 percent
MPEGX (Discovery Portfolio) - down 63 percent
MSEQX (Growth Portfolio) - down 60 percent
CPIDX (Insight Fund) - down 61 percent

Wow... you could have set half your money on fire and still outperformed Morgan Stanley.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by Leesbro63 »

Tom_T wrote: Fri Feb 24, 2023 6:02 am
Leesbro63 wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:17 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:49 pm Morgan Stanley says stocks are in death zone. Forecasting 26% market decline 2023.
And what did they predict for 2022 in late 2021?
Last February: "The balance of corporate fundamentals against a less accommodative U.S. Federal Reserve could create modest equity returns, with opportunities for generating alpha."

Let's look at a few (of many!) Morgan Stanley funds for 2022:

MPAIX (Advantage Portfolio) - down 54 percent
MPEGX (Discovery Portfolio) - down 63 percent
MSEQX (Growth Portfolio) - down 60 percent
CPIDX (Insight Fund) - down 61 percent

Wow... you could have set half your money on fire and still outperformed Morgan Stanley.
Thanks for that reply. Maybe Morgan Stanley is a contrary indicator and 2023 will be a big “up year” for equities.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by Stinky »

Tom_T wrote: Fri Feb 24, 2023 6:02 am
Leesbro63 wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:17 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:49 pm Morgan Stanley says stocks are in death zone. Forecasting 26% market decline 2023.
And what did they predict for 2022 in late 2021?
Last February: "The balance of corporate fundamentals against a less accommodative U.S. Federal Reserve could create modest equity returns, with opportunities for generating alpha."

Let's look at a few (of many!) Morgan Stanley funds for 2022:

MPAIX (Advantage Portfolio) - down 54 percent
MPEGX (Discovery Portfolio) - down 63 percent
MSEQX (Growth Portfolio) - down 60 percent
CPIDX (Insight Fund) - down 61 percent

Wow... you could have set half your money on fire and still outperformed Morgan Stanley.
I’m sure that Morgan Stanley has fired the analysts who made those really bad predictions in 2022.

I expect that the 2023 predictions will be spot on! :twisted:
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by rgs »

Stinky wrote: Fri Feb 24, 2023 6:29 am I expect that the 2023 predictions will be spot on! :twisted:
:D - no doubt. It is interesting to watch Bloomberg where they usually have snippets of analysts comments (after their commercial break). One will say, turn right, the other one will say turn left, someone else will say reverse, etc. (all of these couched in a semi-intelligent sounding sound bites, no less :) ).
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by hudson »

smooth_rough wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:29 am Market crash in 60 days?


https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sto ... n-collapse
His predictions are as good as mine.
Interest rates will drop, and stocks will soar before tomatoes are ripe.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by smooth_rough »

CNBC: Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by Johm221122 »

smooth_rough wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:12 pm CNBC: Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show
And what is the history of recessions and stock market returns?
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

smooth_rough wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:29 am Market crash in 60 days?


https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sto ... n-collapse
Put it on the calendar and then check back.
Last edited by arcticpineapplecorp. on Wed Apr 12, 2023 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

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smooth_rough wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:12 pm CNBC: Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show
This is from a month ago, from March 8
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by nisiprius »

Johm221122 wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:57 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:12 pm CNBC: Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show
And what is the history of recessions and stock market returns?
And what is the history of ANYBODY being able to predict recessions? Jeremy Siegel devotes a full chapter of Stocks for the Long Run to "Stocks and the Business Cycle," and about half of it is devoted to example after example after example of the ludicrous inaccuracy of recession forecasts from various authorities.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by watchnerd »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:59 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:29 am Market crash in 60 days?


https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sto ... n-collapse
Put it on the calendar and then check back.
It's only 3 weeks away, May 8.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by smooth_rough »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:59 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:12 pm CNBC: Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show
This is from a month ago, from March 8
Documents released wednesday (today).

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/fed-exp ... 0Wednesday.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by watchnerd »

smooth_rough wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:25 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:59 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:12 pm CNBC: Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show
This is from a month ago, from March 8
Today.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/fed-exp ... 0Wednesday.
The Fox Business news link you posted earlier was from March 8.

"Published March 8, 2023 9:48am EST"

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sto ... n-collapse
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by wwhan »

As long as one's asset allocation is correct and one is looking at the 10-20 year or longer horizon, it's is a non-issue.

Who do you trust? Who has a good crystal ball?
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

watchnerd wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:13 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:59 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:29 am Market crash in 60 days?


https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sto ... n-collapse
Put it on the calendar and then check back.
It's only 3 weeks away, May 8.
shoot, it's May 11th. Did I miss the market crash or was the US stock market still up 7.5% YTD as of May 8th?
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by rgs »

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 8:35 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:13 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:59 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:29 am Market crash in 60 days?


https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sto ... n-collapse
Put it on the calendar and then check back.
It's only 3 weeks away, May 8.
shoot, it's May 11th. Did I miss the market crash or was the US stock market still up 7.5% YTD as of May 8th?
:happy HA but they didn't mention the year though :wink:
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by arcticpineapplecorp. »

rgs wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 8:12 am
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Thu May 11, 2023 8:35 pm
watchnerd wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:13 pm
arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:59 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:29 am Market crash in 60 days?


https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sto ... n-collapse
Put it on the calendar and then check back.
It's only 3 weeks away, May 8.
shoot, it's May 11th. Did I miss the market crash or was the US stock market still up 7.5% YTD as of May 8th?
:happy HA but they didn't mention the year though :wink:
no, they did. they said "Market Crash in 60 days". That means market crash in two months.

Didn't happen that way, did it?

What does that poster now say about the market crash that was supposed to have come 4 days ago, yet didn't?
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by watchnerd »

That debt ceiling, though...
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by H20SnoSki »

The latest bogey-persons from the punditry are: 1. declining nominal GDP will squeeze earnings; 2. the bank issue is causing more of a credit crunch than is realized; 3. interest rates will remain higher and longer than "the market" expects.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by watchnerd »

H20SnoSki wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 2:25 pm The latest bogey-persons from the punditry are: 1. declining nominal GDP will squeeze earnings; 2. the bank issue is causing more of a credit crunch than is realized; 3. interest rates will remain higher and longer than "the market" expects.
None of those sound cray cray
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by H20SnoSki »

True, although 1 and 3 have been around for many months now and 3 always seems like it is saying "I understand the market better than the market and most investors understand the market." On the daily podcasts and shows I don't get there is a lot of research behind statement 3.

If together or separately these don't cause a downturn, we have one heck of a resilient economy. Which I am kind of banking on.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by WhitePuma »

smooth_rough wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:49 pm Morgan Stanley says stocks are in death zone. Forecasting 26% market decline 2023.
This isn't aging well. Not surprising given the source (MS).
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by Stinky »

WhitePuma wrote: Mon Jul 10, 2023 7:39 pm
smooth_rough wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:49 pm Morgan Stanley says stocks are in death zone. Forecasting 26% market decline 2023.
This isn't aging well. Not surprising given the source (MS).
S&P closed 2022 at 3839. A 26% decline implies a year end 2023 value of 2841.

S&P closed today at 4409.

So for MS prediction to come true, we need to see a 36% decline from today to year end.

Possible, but methinks not likely.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by ram »

smooth_rough wrote: Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:49 pm Morgan Stanley says stocks are in death zone. Forecasting 26% market decline 2023.
I think they are forecasting what will happen to their funds, not the broad market. :D
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by Beensabu »

H20SnoSki wrote: Fri May 12, 2023 2:32 pm True, although 1 and 3 have been around for many months now and 3 always seems like it is saying "I understand the market better than the market and most investors understand the market." On the daily podcasts and shows I don't get there is a lot of research behind statement 3.

If together or separately these don't cause a downturn, we have one heck of a resilient economy. Which I am kind of banking on.
2 is the thing to watch. It's always "everything is fine" and then too many delinquencies turn into defaults and "everything is not fine, and you can't have any money".

Just look at that uptrend...

Image

If the trend continues at that slope, it's looking like year end 2024. If the slope changes to late 2019 (covid savings exhausted), it'll be earlier.

Edit: And let's not forget that federal student loan repayment has been on pause...
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by CrisisAverted »

I wish I had seen this post sooner.

The first line "I want to say this carefully. This is not an optimistic "stay the course" post and it's not a pessimistic "OMG do something" post. It's directed at people who are feeling very uncomfortable" resonates with me.

I will give my example.

In Nov 21, I was up close to $200k in unrealized gains. Home ownership looked plausible in my VHCOL area. Slowly, beginning in 1/22, that $200k started to shrink, to where I was down close to $110k in Oct 22. Mainly in all in tech. Fortunately, I had invested in NVDA back in 2013 or so, although, not much at the time, and that buoyed my portfolio so I was "only" down the $100k. Probably would've been close to -$160k otherwise.

Seeing my portfolio so red gave me flashbacks to how poorly my parents did back in 08-09 and how their financial illiteracy cost them a decade plus in recovery (only put in money once, and definitely no DCA) to break even. Generational trauma stuff, right there.

SO, a few months later, when I was "only" down about $20k, I sold out of all equities in my non-retirement accounts. I did the math and collecting 5% in treasuries over the course of the year would at least get me to break even.

Little did I know that just 6 short months later, had I held at least my biggest couple positions (all in tech), I would've been back up about $120-$140k. I stopped doing the math after seeing my "lost profit" in NVDA ($100k in lost profits had I held from earlier this year to now just in that one position).

On the bright side, I am going to do a bit better than breaking even since treasury rates have increased a bit, so that's nice.

I do mind the lost profits but not as much as knowing that I made a completely rational decision at the time which backfired tremendously. Emotions got the better of me as I watched those unrealized gains slowly fall from $200k to -$110k so when it finally started to climb out of the sewer and I got to -$20k I knew I had to take my shot and get out. Unfortunately, those "jitters" of crashing back down after the gain up to Feb 23 finally got to me (as did all the "recession incoming" talk).

My rationale was that had I held, and we went back down again, I would not have been able to afford a home at all in my VHCOL area. By getting out, I was at least maintaining my cash and would have a chance at home ownership.

I still don't have a home yet and haven't seriously looked at any places since all the decent locations are $1.2m+ in my area.

Oh well. A bunch of money down the drain. At least I didn't sell anything in my retirement accounts.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by SB1234 »

CrisisAverted wrote: Wed Jul 19, 2023 1:12 am I wish I had seen this post sooner.

The first line "I want to say this carefully. This is not an optimistic "stay the course" post and it's not a pessimistic "OMG do something" post. It's directed at people who are feeling very uncomfortable" resonates with me.

I will give my example.

In Nov 21, I was up close to $200k in unrealized gains. Home ownership looked plausible in my VHCOL area. Slowly, beginning in 1/22, that $200k started to shrink, to where I was down close to $110k in Oct 22. Mainly in all in tech. Fortunately, I had invested in NVDA back in 2013 or so, although, not much at the time, and that buoyed my portfolio so I was "only" down the $100k. Probably would've been close to -$160k otherwise.

Seeing my portfolio so red gave me flashbacks to how poorly my parents did back in 08-09 and how their financial illiteracy cost them a decade plus in recovery (only put in money once, and definitely no DCA) to break even. Generational trauma stuff, right there.

SO, a few months later, when I was "only" down about $20k, I sold out of all equities in my non-retirement accounts. I did the math and collecting 5% in treasuries over the course of the year would at least get me to break even.

Little did I know that just 6 short months later, had I held at least my biggest couple positions (all in tech), I would've been back up about $120-$140k. I stopped doing the math after seeing my "lost profit" in NVDA ($100k in lost profits had I held from earlier this year to now just in that one position).

On the bright side, I am going to do a bit better than breaking even since treasury rates have increased a bit, so that's nice.

I do mind the lost profits but not as much as knowing that I made a completely rational decision at the time which backfired tremendously. Emotions got the better of me as I watched those unrealized gains slowly fall from $200k to -$110k so when it finally started to climb out of the sewer and I got to -$20k I knew I had to take my shot and get out. Unfortunately, those "jitters" of crashing back down after the gain up to Feb 23 finally got to me (as did all the "recession incoming" talk).

My rationale was that had I held, and we went back down again, I would not have been able to afford a home at all in my VHCOL area. By getting out, I was at least maintaining my cash and would have a chance at home ownership.

I still don't have a home yet and haven't seriously looked at any places since all the decent locations are $1.2m+ in my area.

Oh well. A bunch of money down the drain. At least I didn't sell anything in my retirement accounts.
Sorry to hear about your story. But I think if you take the correct lessons then you will definitely come up stronger in the long run.
in my opinion the correct lessons are

1. don't be betting a huge chunk of your wealth on single stocks. It is very difficult nay impossible to consistently believe in story about individual stocks. That you were able to ride it up for 10 years is an achievement in itself, i surely would not be able to do. I would be the first one to take profits. On the other hand i find investing in index funds and holding them through bull and bear market much more manageable. It takes the emotion out of it to a large extent, it doesn't matter if any individual stock is doing good or bad what matter is really how the macro economy is doing, and how your individual economy is doing, ie. how safe is your employment, how much you can save and keep investing every month. Then leave the rest to the economy. I think if you focus on these two things going forward and eschew individual stocks for more than small chunk of your wealth, then this will be a expensive albeit well learned lesson

2. The other important lesson is about managing risk. Everyone needs to manage risk based on their own circumstances. Any amount that you intend to or need to spend within a short period of time even up to 5 years, should never be invested in the stock market let alone individual stocks.

Good luck.
superstition: belief that market will one day come around to your concept of fair value
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William Million
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by William Million »

CrisisAverted wrote: Wed Jul 19, 2023 1:12 am I wish I had seen this post sooner.

The first line "I want to say this carefully. This is not an optimistic "stay the course" post and it's not a pessimistic "OMG do something" post. It's directed at people who are feeling very uncomfortable" resonates with me.

I will give my example. . . . .
Many others wish they had seen the first post in this thread sooner. In fact, it's such an important thread, compared to all the consumer stuff and PE10 cultism, it's a pity it's not permanently the top thread.
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wwhan
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by wwhan »

Looking at the possibilities and peoples experiences, confirms my personal strategy of approximately 50% fixed income (currently CDs and Treasuries) & 50% in broad stock market (mostly VTI, index 500 and an small allocation to international stock mkt).

My taxable account has more in fixed income, but as the stock market prices goes down, I buy more stock market in taxable. When the stock market goes up, I buy more fixed income in tax deferred.

I just re-balance when the allocation strays too far from target (more than 5%). This allows me to get a fair return on investment, but not the maximum or optimum income. My no stress, sleep at night, safe allocation is 50%, since I have enough savings, only need to survive the inflation.

One should not invest more than 4% of their savings in any one stock. If a single stock goes up drastically one can just sell the excess and keep the base investment, if they believe in the stock (just skim off excess).

With only 50% in the stock market and no need to touch that money in the next 10 years, there is no point in getting into a panic over the market.

The news pundits are constantly stirring up fear and panic, such as the gold bugs:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/death-en ... 41464.html

and

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rich- ... 06220.html

[link format fixed by admin LadyGeek]
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William Million
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by William Million »

wwhan wrote: Sat Aug 19, 2023 12:28 pm Looking at the possibilities and peoples experiences, confirms my personal strategy of approximately 50% fixed income (currently CDs and Treasuries) & 50% in broad stock market (mostly VTI, index 500 and an small allocation to international stock mkt).

My taxable account has more in fixed income, but as the stock market prices goes down, I buy more stock market in taxable. When the stock market goes up, I buy more fixed income in tax deferred.

I just re-balance when the allocation strays too far from target (more than 5%). This allows me to get a fair return on investment, but not the maximum or optimum income. My no stress, sleep at night, safe allocation is 50%, since I have enough savings, only need to survive the inflation.

One should not invest more than 4% of their savings in any one stock. If a single stock goes up drastically one can just sell the excess and keep the base investment, if they believe in the stock (just skim off excess).

With only 50% in the stock market and no need to touch that money in the next 10 years, there is no point in getting into a panic over the market.

The news pundits are constantly stirring up fear and panic, such as the gold bugs:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/death-en ... 41464.html

and

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rich- ... 06220.html

[link format fixed by admin LadyGeek]
All makes sense except I believe equities first in Roth. They'll ultimately have the biggest gains.
Leesbro63
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by Leesbro63 »

William Million wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:44 am
wwhan wrote: Sat Aug 19, 2023 12:28 pm Looking at the possibilities and peoples experiences, confirms my personal strategy of approximately 50% fixed income (currently CDs and Treasuries) & 50% in broad stock market (mostly VTI, index 500 and an small allocation to international stock mkt).

My taxable account has more in fixed income, but as the stock market prices goes down, I buy more stock market in taxable. When the stock market goes up, I buy more fixed income in tax deferred.

I just re-balance when the allocation strays too far from target (more than 5%). This allows me to get a fair return on investment, but not the maximum or optimum income. My no stress, sleep at night, safe allocation is 50%, since I have enough savings, only need to survive the inflation.

One should not invest more than 4% of their savings in any one stock. If a single stock goes up drastically one can just sell the excess and keep the base investment, if they believe in the stock (just skim off excess).

With only 50% in the stock market and no need to touch that money in the next 10 years, there is no point in getting into a panic over the market.

The news pundits are constantly stirring up fear and panic, such as the gold bugs:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/death-en ... 41464.html

and

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rich- ... 06220.html

[link format fixed by admin LadyGeek]
All makes sense except I believe equities first in Roth. They'll ultimately have the biggest gains.
Might make sense to keep equities in taxable, hold till death, get the step up. And use the Roth for investments that are less tax efficient in taxable accounts.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by livesoft »

William Million wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:44 amAll makes sense except I believe equities first in Roth. They'll ultimately have the biggest gains.
Except that equities will also have the biggest losses, right? So equities in Roth when they are having biggest gains, but not in Roth when they are having the biggest losses. [Unnecessary comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
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wwhan
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by wwhan »

livesoft wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:19 am
William Million wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:44 amAll makes sense except I believe equities first in Roth. They'll ultimately have the biggest gains.
Except that equities will also have the biggest losses, right? So equities in Roth when they are having biggest gains, but not in Roth when they are having the biggest losses. [Unnecessary comment removed by admin LadyGeek]
Equities only have the biggest losses, if one sells when the price is down. It is best to wait till prices are high again to sell stock, even if it a takes a long time.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by William Million »

Leesbro63 wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:03 am
William Million wrote: Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:44 am
wwhan wrote: Sat Aug 19, 2023 12:28 pm Looking at the possibilities and peoples experiences, confirms my personal strategy of approximately 50% fixed income (currently CDs and Treasuries) & 50% in broad stock market (mostly VTI, index 500 and an small allocation to international stock mkt).

My taxable account has more in fixed income, but as the stock market prices goes down, I buy more stock market in taxable. When the stock market goes up, I buy more fixed income in tax deferred.

I just re-balance when the allocation strays too far from target (more than 5%). This allows me to get a fair return on investment, but not the maximum or optimum income. My no stress, sleep at night, safe allocation is 50%, since I have enough savings, only need to survive the inflation.

One should not invest more than 4% of their savings in any one stock. If a single stock goes up drastically one can just sell the excess and keep the base investment, if they believe in the stock (just skim off excess).

With only 50% in the stock market and no need to touch that money in the next 10 years, there is no point in getting into a panic over the market.

The news pundits are constantly stirring up fear and panic, such as the gold bugs:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/death-en ... 41464.html

and

https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rich- ... 06220.html

[link format fixed by admin LadyGeek]
All makes sense except I believe equities first in Roth. They'll ultimately have the biggest gains.
Might make sense to keep equities in taxable, hold till death, get the step up. And use the Roth for investments that are less tax efficient in taxable accounts.
You're right but my wife would not get the step up.
AlohaBill
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by AlohaBill »

I was getting jittery again but I think it’s just my foot neuropathy. :D
AlohaBill
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

Post by AlohaBill »

I was getting jittery again but I think it’s just my foot neuropathy. :D
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