Do I have to get a hybrid?

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michaeljc70
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by michaeljc70 »

bendix wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:04 pm
cmr79 wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 8:52 am
bendix wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 8:21 am I believe Hybrids are a left pocket richt pocket type of game. While they do use less fuel and help you to save money, the batteries are usually end of life after 10 years or 150k miles. Replacing it eats something in the rough order of magnitude of your accumulated fuel savings...
You are falling prey to the same fallacy that concerns most people with EV batteries not lasting "long enough"...as has been pointed out multiple times above on this thread, just because the hybrid batteries are warrantied for at least 10 years/150k miles doesn't mean that is all that they are expected to last. Read this very thread for plenty of examples. If you do need to replace the battery to get 20 years / 200k miles out of the vehicle, you are probably looking at an expense of $1-3k vs fuel savings of $10k (assuming 50 mpg hybrid vs 30 mpg ICE and fuel cost of $3.50/gal), which seems like a pretty good deal.
Little surprised of the aggressiveness here. Is that necessary?

The internet is awash with reports, even by manufacturers and dealers, including Toyota, that tell you the expected life of such a battery is anywhere between 5 and 15 years, where most I could find are around 8-10. I researched that maybe a year or two ago when I was contemplating a hybrid purchase. If your hybrid battery lasted longer, good for you, but why go on a crusade and lose manners over it?

And you could google quite easily what the cost of replacement is for the model you care for and make your own calculations and estimates about future fuel prices. To some that´s a no brainer, to me it was a more risky gamble than I wanted. I am very sorry if you feel uncomfortable about that.
Plus, what hybrid battery can be replaced for $1k? A ding in your door is more than that!
teCh0010
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by teCh0010 »

michaeljc70 wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:41 pm
bendix wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:04 pm
cmr79 wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 8:52 am
bendix wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 8:21 am I believe Hybrids are a left pocket richt pocket type of game. While they do use less fuel and help you to save money, the batteries are usually end of life after 10 years or 150k miles. Replacing it eats something in the rough order of magnitude of your accumulated fuel savings...
You are falling prey to the same fallacy that concerns most people with EV batteries not lasting "long enough"...as has been pointed out multiple times above on this thread, just because the hybrid batteries are warrantied for at least 10 years/150k miles doesn't mean that is all that they are expected to last. Read this very thread for plenty of examples. If you do need to replace the battery to get 20 years / 200k miles out of the vehicle, you are probably looking at an expense of $1-3k vs fuel savings of $10k (assuming 50 mpg hybrid vs 30 mpg ICE and fuel cost of $3.50/gal), which seems like a pretty good deal.
Little surprised of the aggressiveness here. Is that necessary?

The internet is awash with reports, even by manufacturers and dealers, including Toyota, that tell you the expected life of such a battery is anywhere between 5 and 15 years, where most I could find are around 8-10. I researched that maybe a year or two ago when I was contemplating a hybrid purchase. If your hybrid battery lasted longer, good for you, but why go on a crusade and lose manners over it?

And you could google quite easily what the cost of replacement is for the model you care for and make your own calculations and estimates about future fuel prices. To some that´s a no brainer, to me it was a more risky gamble than I wanted. I am very sorry if you feel uncomfortable about that.
Plus, what hybrid battery can be replaced for $1k? A ding in your door is more than that!
Prius batteries can be ordered for $1250 and easily swapped out at home.

https://www.greentecauto.com/hybrid-bat ... vQQAvD_BwE
cmr79
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by cmr79 »

michaeljc70 wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:41 pm
bendix wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:04 pm
cmr79 wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 8:52 am
bendix wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 8:21 am I believe Hybrids are a left pocket richt pocket type of game. While they do use less fuel and help you to save money, the batteries are usually end of life after 10 years or 150k miles. Replacing it eats something in the rough order of magnitude of your accumulated fuel savings...
You are falling prey to the same fallacy that concerns most people with EV batteries not lasting "long enough"...as has been pointed out multiple times above on this thread, just because the hybrid batteries are warrantied for at least 10 years/150k miles doesn't mean that is all that they are expected to last. Read this very thread for plenty of examples. If you do need to replace the battery to get 20 years / 200k miles out of the vehicle, you are probably looking at an expense of $1-3k vs fuel savings of $10k (assuming 50 mpg hybrid vs 30 mpg ICE and fuel cost of $3.50/gal), which seems like a pretty good deal.
Little surprised of the aggressiveness here. Is that necessary?

The internet is awash with reports, even by manufacturers and dealers, including Toyota, that tell you the expected life of such a battery is anywhere between 5 and 15 years, where most I could find are around 8-10. I researched that maybe a year or two ago when I was contemplating a hybrid purchase. If your hybrid battery lasted longer, good for you, but why go on a crusade and lose manners over it?

And you could google quite easily what the cost of replacement is for the model you care for and make your own calculations and estimates about future fuel prices. To some that´s a no brainer, to me it was a more risky gamble than I wanted. I am very sorry if you feel uncomfortable about that.
Plus, what hybrid battery can be replaced for $1k? A ding in your door is more than that!
Bendix...I'm sorry if I hurt your feelings by suggesting that something you posted online might not be accurate. I would appreciate seeing evidence that Toyota expects their hybrid batteries to only last 5 years yet warranties them for 10. Or don't; this topic is intellectually (but not emotionally) interesting to me, and it won't bother me either way.

Michaeljc70, you can buy a refurbished Prius high voltage battery for under $1k and have it installed by a mechanic for a few hundred dollars. Repair costs would run higher if you want an OEM battery, but still likely in the $3k range or a little above. Get it replaced at a Toyota dealership service center and I'm sure it will run even higher, and I'm sure replacing a high voltage hybrid battery at a dealership for a luxury brands are easy more. But the point wasn't that it *couldn't* be expensive but rather that it *could* be relatively cheap. I'm sure there are quite a rande of prices for body shops fixing door dings, but I don't really know.
teCh0010
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by teCh0010 »

bendix wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:04 pm
cmr79 wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 8:52 am
bendix wrote: Sat Mar 25, 2023 8:21 am I believe Hybrids are a left pocket richt pocket type of game. While they do use less fuel and help you to save money, the batteries are usually end of life after 10 years or 150k miles. Replacing it eats something in the rough order of magnitude of your accumulated fuel savings...
You are falling prey to the same fallacy that concerns most people with EV batteries not lasting "long enough"...as has been pointed out multiple times above on this thread, just because the hybrid batteries are warrantied for at least 10 years/150k miles doesn't mean that is all that they are expected to last. Read this very thread for plenty of examples. If you do need to replace the battery to get 20 years / 200k miles out of the vehicle, you are probably looking at an expense of $1-3k vs fuel savings of $10k (assuming 50 mpg hybrid vs 30 mpg ICE and fuel cost of $3.50/gal), which seems like a pretty good deal.
Little surprised of the aggressiveness here. Is that necessary?

The internet is awash with reports, even by manufacturers and dealers, including Toyota, that tell you the expected life of such a battery is anywhere between 5 and 15 years, where most I could find are around 8-10. I researched that maybe a year or two ago when I was contemplating a hybrid purchase. If your hybrid battery lasted longer, good for you, but why go on a crusade and lose manners over it?

And you could google quite easily what the cost of replacement is for the model you care for and make your own calculations and estimates about future fuel prices. To some that´s a no brainer, to me it was a more risky gamble than I wanted. I am very sorry if you feel uncomfortable about that.
I don’t see their answer as aggressive?

You state that hybrid batteries “usually” die after 10 years. I would say it’s more that hybrid batteries can fail after 10 years, I wouldn’t say they usually do. The Prius community is full of high mileage Prius vehicles with original batteries, and if it goes bad the Prius battery is easily replaced.
vasaver
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by vasaver »

Another advantage/savings of a hybrid (or maybe just the prius). No Alternator...I have had those go out a few times on other cars and that isn't very fun.
Leesbro63
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by Leesbro63 »

warner25 wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:38 pm
Leesbro63 wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 5:20 pm I’m a Toyota/Lexus guy. And my understanding is that Prius and Corolla are about the same size and Camry is bigger.
Just going by the EPA data, looking at 2008 which is my model year, the Camry and Prius are both in the "midsize" segment while the Corolla is a "compact," with the following specs...

Corolla: 89 cubic feet of "passenger volume," and 14 cubic feet of "luggage volume"
Prius: 96 cubic feet of "passenger volume," and 16 cubic feet of "luggage volume"
Camry: 101 cubic feet of "passenger volume," and 15 cubic feet of "luggage volume"

https://fueleconomy.gov/feg/Find.do?act ... 24401#tab4

I've also owned a Corolla and Camry, although different (older) model years, and I would characterize the Corolla as being noticeably more cramped. At one time we actually had three kids' car seats across the back of the Prius, which is impressive to me.
What about wheelbase and tire size?
Valuethinker
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by Valuethinker »

Funicular wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 5:09 pm Love my Rav4 2021 mild hybrid. 41 mpg city 38 hwy claimed (and is what i am actually seeing). It is AWD and really peppy which is what sold my hubby on it (he is a track car guy). I understand even the F1 cars are hybrids!
We are in Duluth MN which has snow for about 6 mo AND hills, so AWD is more important than in other parts of the country. Without AWD, the mpg is of course better.

Has anyone else seen this great website: greencarreport.com ? They report on and rate new (and upcoming) hybrids and EVs. This website has just reported significant price drops in used EV car prices, especially Teslas.

I would personally love an EV but first of all, the prices make me laugh they are so high, and with our driving round trips frequently 180 mi, and what conservatively is a 50% haircut in range in cold weather, we are just going to wait and watch the technology improve and prices come down.
You were lucky to get a 2021 RAV4 hybrid. Rare as hen's teeth.

A sibling inherited one. Dealer offered list price to buy back a 18 month old vehicle. Said that a Big City dealer would be able to sell it for 20% over list. Small town dealer cannot get enough of them just to satisfy his long term repeat clients.

I agree that EVs do not meet the criteria you have-- right now. And there's a global shortage of components: EVs + PHEVs are 20%+ of new car sales in China, Germany, Britain (roughly speaking, the world's largest, 3rd & 4th largest new car markets). Only about 5% of US sales, I believe?

It was inevitable that EV prices would drop. Buying subsidies cut (in some circumstances). Cuts in list prices of new vehicles (Tesla).

Rollout of charging infrastructure is the biggest challenge. But the US has 99%+ domestic electrification. Probably 70% of Americans live in homes that have their own driveways? Municipal, workplace and retail car parking facilities are universal-- in France they are mandating solar panels, which also means there are more *shaded* parking spots.

And. Block engine heaters. In Alberta, parking spots have a place to plug in your block heater. Maybe Winnipeg to. So it's not unknown.

We are in the early stages of climbing a big mountain-- paradigm shifts don't happen smoothly, they happen with lots of stops and starts. Not every consumer device is the DVD player*. The US is not a leader in adoption due to geography and other factors-- although Tesla gives it the largest EV manufacturer.

I would say this. 10 years agp I was aware of maybe 1 EV in the 'hood (London). Then 2 or 3: Nissan Leafs, all. BMW i3s starting to pop up. About the time lockdown started in 2020, I started to see say a Tesla once a week (much less traffic so I probably sent more time paying attention). Now I see 2-6 Teslas a day, and probably as many of all the other brands (that I notice).

* DVD players have the smoothest, fastest "S Curve" of any consumer device. Remember when your computer came with a CD player? Maybe smartphones are number 1 or 2. But a perfect model does not happen for most technologies, especially not in long term consumer durables. (Electrification of factories took over 40 years; the older model of a single drive shaft, with all machinery coupled by belts to it, was still around 40+ years after the invention of the electric motor-driven machine tool).
onourway
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by onourway »

fireman wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 12:42 pm I am yet not convinced hybrids are more economical than ICEs, at least at present.

Take the 2023 RAV4 LE (base RAV4) as an example: the ICE version gets 27/35 mpg for $27,975; the hybrid version gets 41/38 at $30,725 (difference of $2,750). To make the math easier, let's assume hybrid gets 40 mpg and ICE gets 29 mpg (this assumes more city driving, which is to the benefit of the hybrid). If someone drives this car 12K miles per year, the fuel savings is 114 gallons. At $4/gallon (gas is currently $3.20 where I am), yearly savings is $456 in fuel. It would take 6 years to break even in nominal dollars and a few more (8-10?) than that in real dollars. Of course, if you drive many more miles and/or gas prices go higher than $4/g, then the hybrid looks better, but the ICE looks better if you drive less and/or gas prices stay below $4/g.

Genuinely curious - what am I missing?

Also, I tend to think that the majority of fuel economy gains are related to the weight of the vehicle (looking at you Toyota Prius). A friend had a Chevy Sprint in the late 80s. Crazy good gas mileage - close to 50 mpg. Thank goodness we were never in a collision though.
One thing is that, at least for our us, an ICE vehicle nearly always under-performs its city mileage while a hybrid over-performs. Since fuel economy is a non-linear measurement, that makes a big difference. If the ICE RAV4 got 22mpg city under our cycle, the fuel savings jumps to 253 gallons/year, even if the hybrid gets only its rated mileage. In practice we drive more like 25k miles/year, and drive a plug-in hybrid that extends this advantage further.

If you mostly drive longer trips, where the warmup cycle and city stop and go are less of a factor, then an straight ICE is going to be more competitive.
stoptothink
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by stoptothink »

onourway wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:18 am
fireman wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 12:42 pm I am yet not convinced hybrids are more economical than ICEs, at least at present.

Take the 2023 RAV4 LE (base RAV4) as an example: the ICE version gets 27/35 mpg for $27,975; the hybrid version gets 41/38 at $30,725 (difference of $2,750). To make the math easier, let's assume hybrid gets 40 mpg and ICE gets 29 mpg (this assumes more city driving, which is to the benefit of the hybrid). If someone drives this car 12K miles per year, the fuel savings is 114 gallons. At $4/gallon (gas is currently $3.20 where I am), yearly savings is $456 in fuel. It would take 6 years to break even in nominal dollars and a few more (8-10?) than that in real dollars. Of course, if you drive many more miles and/or gas prices go higher than $4/g, then the hybrid looks better, but the ICE looks better if you drive less and/or gas prices stay below $4/g.

Genuinely curious - what am I missing?

Also, I tend to think that the majority of fuel economy gains are related to the weight of the vehicle (looking at you Toyota Prius). A friend had a Chevy Sprint in the late 80s. Crazy good gas mileage - close to 50 mpg. Thank goodness we were never in a collision though.
One thing is that, at least for our us, an ICE vehicle nearly always under-performs its city mileage while a hybrid over-performs. Since fuel economy is a non-linear measurement, that makes a big difference. If the ICE RAV4 got 22mpg city under our cycle, the fuel savings jumps to 253 gallons/year, even if the hybrid gets only its rated mileage. In practice we drive more like 25k miles/year, and drive a plug-in hybrid that extends this advantage further.

If you mostly drive longer trips, where the warmup cycle and city stop and go are less of a factor, then an straight ICE is going to be more competitive.
Depending on your driving behavior you generally have a lot more bandwidth to beat city mileage estimates with a hybrid than you do with an ICE because you can use the little tricks to kick it into electric-only. I usually get 65+mpg in our Maverick if we don' have to get on the freeway.
ncbill
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by ncbill »

bendix wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:10 pm
fireman wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 12:42 pm I am yet not convinced hybrids are more economical than ICEs, at least at present.

Take the 2023 RAV4 LE (base RAV4) as an example: the ICE version gets 27/35 mpg for $27,975; the hybrid version gets 41/38 at $30,725 (difference of $2,750). To make the math easier, let's assume hybrid gets 40 mpg and ICE gets 29 mpg (this assumes more city driving, which is to the benefit of the hybrid). If someone drives this car 12K miles per year, the fuel savings is 114 gallons. At $4/gallon (gas is currently $3.20 where I am), yearly savings is $456 in fuel. It would take 6 years to break even in nominal dollars and a few more (8-10?) than that in real dollars. Of course, if you drive many more miles and/or gas prices go higher than $4/g, then the hybrid looks better, but the ICE looks better if you drive less and/or gas prices stay below $4/g.

Genuinely curious - what am I missing?

Also, I tend to think that the majority of fuel economy gains are related to the weight of the vehicle (looking at you Toyota Prius). A friend had a Chevy Sprint in the late 80s. Crazy good gas mileage - close to 50 mpg. Thank goodness we were never in a collision though.
You could consider that after maybe 10 years, maybe more if you´re lucky, you´d spend roughly $5,000 in today´s Dollars on a new battery for the RAV4, which would take out roughly 11 years of fuel savings.
Cheaper if you DIY, but around half that, installed:

https://greenbeanbattery.com/rav-4-hybr ... placement/
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warner25
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by warner25 »

Leesbro63 wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 3:44 am What about wheelbase and tire size?
I don't know, nor do I know what practical difference that would make for me.
stoptothink wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 6:38 am
onourway wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:18 am One thing is that, at least for our us, an ICE vehicle nearly always under-performs its city mileage while a hybrid over-performs....

If you mostly drive longer trips, where the warmup cycle and city stop and go are less of a factor, then an straight ICE is going to be more competitive.
Depending on your driving behavior you generally have a lot more bandwidth to beat city mileage estimates with a hybrid than you do with an ICE because you can use the little tricks to kick it into electric-only. I usually get 65+mpg in our Maverick if we don' have to get on the freeway.
One thing making the hybrid vs. ICE comparison difficult is that hybrids (Prii, at least) provide the driver with a lot more feedback, compared to ICE vehicles that I've driven, on what the system is doing and how much fuel it's using. So that allows and incentivizes people to learn and apply "little tricks" to drive more efficiently. It's one of those things, like in behavioral finance, that we hate to admit, but getting my Prius radically changed my driving style to be much more gentle, conservative, forward-looking, etc. That same driving style also helps to save gas in an ICE vehicle, but the savings are less apparent and therefore most people driving an ICE vehicle will never drive like that.
bendix
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by bendix »

ncbill wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 10:01 am
bendix wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:10 pm
fireman wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 12:42 pm I am yet not convinced hybrids are more economical than ICEs, at least at present.

Take the 2023 RAV4 LE (base RAV4) as an example: the ICE version gets 27/35 mpg for $27,975; the hybrid version gets 41/38 at $30,725 (difference of $2,750). To make the math easier, let's assume hybrid gets 40 mpg and ICE gets 29 mpg (this assumes more city driving, which is to the benefit of the hybrid). If someone drives this car 12K miles per year, the fuel savings is 114 gallons. At $4/gallon (gas is currently $3.20 where I am), yearly savings is $456 in fuel. It would take 6 years to break even in nominal dollars and a few more (8-10?) than that in real dollars. Of course, if you drive many more miles and/or gas prices go higher than $4/g, then the hybrid looks better, but the ICE looks better if you drive less and/or gas prices stay below $4/g.

Genuinely curious - what am I missing?

Also, I tend to think that the majority of fuel economy gains are related to the weight of the vehicle (looking at you Toyota Prius). A friend had a Chevy Sprint in the late 80s. Crazy good gas mileage - close to 50 mpg. Thank goodness we were never in a collision though.
You could consider that after maybe 10 years, maybe more if you´re lucky, you´d spend roughly $5,000 in today´s Dollars on a new battery for the RAV4, which would take out roughly 11 years of fuel savings.
Cheaper if you DIY, but around half that, installed:

https://greenbeanbattery.com/rav-4-hybr ... placement/
Yea, the $5,000 is for the latest model and if you go through Toyota. But even if you go with refurbished batteries from a third party at the price you shared it wouldnt break even in the example discussed. To me - still - the whole hybrid game makes sense if you´re very comfortable predicting the battery will last for as long as you intend to drive the car, or you want to flip it after X number of years and make it someone else´s problem... which I always thought as morally questionable.
Leesbro63
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by Leesbro63 »

bendix wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 1:29 pm
To me - still - the whole hybrid game makes sense if you´re very comfortable predicting the battery will last for as long as you intend to drive the car, or you want to flip it after X number of years and make it someone else´s problem... which I always thought as morally questionable.
I think if you have a car that you know has a problem that a test driver wouldn't find and you don't disclose this, it's a moral problem. If you sell an 8 year old hybrid, which you know to be working fine with no undisclosed problems, I think "the market" understands that the battery could die tomorrow or run another 7-8 years. Just as someone's 150,000 mile ICE car is sold with "the market" knowing that it could run another 150,000 trouble free miles or could die tomorrow. I don't see any moral problem here.
Last edited by Leesbro63 on Tue Mar 28, 2023 3:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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warner25
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by warner25 »

Leesbro63 wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 2:06 pm
bendix wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 1:29 pm To me - still - the whole hybrid game makes sense if you´re very comfortable predicting the battery will last for as long as you intend to drive the car, or you want to flip it after X number of years and make it someone else´s problem... which I always thought as morally questionable.
...I think "the market" understands that the battery could die tomorrow or run another 7-8 years... I don't see any moral problem here.
Yes, the very first question that any potential hybrid buyer will ask is, "have you ever had to replace the battery?" And then they'll do some calculations based on their own expectations about battery life.

I just want to reiterate that I've owned a Corolla, a Camry, and a Prius. I bought the Corolla and Camry used, and sold them when they were less than 15 years old with well over 100,000 miles. My Prius is now 15 years old with well over 100,000 miles and seems to be in better shape. If I were selling all three of them today, it's really not clear to me that a potential buyer should discount the Prius relative to the others just because it still has the original battery.
Last edited by warner25 on Tue Mar 28, 2023 2:56 pm, edited 2 times in total.
stoptothink
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by stoptothink »

Leesbro63 wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 2:06 pm
bendix wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 1:29 pm
To me - still - the whole hybrid game makes sense if you´re very comfortable predicting the battery will last for as long as you intend to drive the car, or you want to flip it after X number of years and make it someone else´s problem... which I always thought as morally questionable.
I think if you have a car that you know has a problem that a test driver wouldn't find and you don't disclose this, it's a moral problem. If you sell an 8 year old hybrid, which you know to be working fine with no undisclosed problems, I think "the market" understands that the battery could die tomorrow or run another 7-8 years. Just someone's 150,000 mile ICE car is sold with "the market" knowing that it could run another 150,000 trouble free miles or could die tomorrow. I don't see any moral problem here.
+1 How is a hybrid battery any different than literally any part on the car in this regard? Someone buying a used vehicle from a private party has accepted the risk that any part could fail the minute they drive off with it.
cmr79
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by cmr79 »

Interview with a Toyota mechanic specializing in hybrids who suggests that the batteries typically last 180-200k miles. I can't find any better source of aggregated data on this, but it would explain why Toyota decided to increase the warranty to 150k miles a few years back if relatively few batteries were failing between 100-150k miles.

https://www.torquenews.com/6626/how-lon ... ions-video

ETA link.
KyleAAA
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by KyleAAA »

bendix wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:10 pm
fireman wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 12:42 pm I am yet not convinced hybrids are more economical than ICEs, at least at present.

Take the 2023 RAV4 LE (base RAV4) as an example: the ICE version gets 27/35 mpg for $27,975; the hybrid version gets 41/38 at $30,725 (difference of $2,750). To make the math easier, let's assume hybrid gets 40 mpg and ICE gets 29 mpg (this assumes more city driving, which is to the benefit of the hybrid). If someone drives this car 12K miles per year, the fuel savings is 114 gallons. At $4/gallon (gas is currently $3.20 where I am), yearly savings is $456 in fuel. It would take 6 years to break even in nominal dollars and a few more (8-10?) than that in real dollars. Of course, if you drive many more miles and/or gas prices go higher than $4/g, then the hybrid looks better, but the ICE looks better if you drive less and/or gas prices stay below $4/g.

Genuinely curious - what am I missing?

Also, I tend to think that the majority of fuel economy gains are related to the weight of the vehicle (looking at you Toyota Prius). A friend had a Chevy Sprint in the late 80s. Crazy good gas mileage - close to 50 mpg. Thank goodness we were never in a collision though.
You could consider that after maybe 10 years, maybe more if you´re lucky, you´d spend roughly $5,000 in today´s Dollars on a new battery for the RAV4, which would take out roughly 11 years of fuel savings.
1.) It's considerably cheaper than $5k in today's dollars
2.) You'd need to be very unlucky for the battery to die after just 10 years. Toyota's warranty is 10 years/150k miles precisely because it's extremely rare. Unlikely things happen, but it's not wise to count on them happening for the numbers to make sense.
Mordoch
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by Mordoch »

bendix wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 7:04 pm Little surprised of the aggressiveness here. Is that necessary?

The internet is awash with reports, even by manufacturers and dealers, including Toyota, that tell you the expected life of such a battery is anywhere between 5 and 15 years, where most I could find are around 8-10. I researched that maybe a year or two ago when I was contemplating a hybrid purchase. If your hybrid battery lasted longer, good for you, but why go on a crusade and lose manners over it?

And you could google quite easily what the cost of replacement is for the model you care for and make your own calculations and estimates about future fuel prices. To some that´s a no brainer, to me it was a more risky gamble than I wanted. I am very sorry if you feel uncomfortable about that
The problem is this is strange misinformation regarding a typical hybrid battery lifetime, and clearly does not make sense when you look at the warranty for Toyota etc. which have a ten year warranty on their batteries. You were already told why this did not make sense in this thread and seemed to have simply ignored this and failed to do proper follow-up research before repeating misleading claims.

Maybe if someone drove a massive number of miles (at which point they could wear out the engine of a regular car as well), but in reality as noted it is actually quite unusual for a hybrid battery to fail under ten years. If they really only lasted for ten years or typically less, Toyota and Hyundai (who also has at least a 10 year warranty for their hybrid batteries now) would be stuck paying for brand new batteries for a massive portion of their hybrids sold (plus all the labor at the dealership) for cars still under warranty when their batteries fail. Toyota would also have taken a hit to their reputation which has not happened. As noted, Prius's etc. near 10 years old would also be significantly lower value than they are right now, and if anything you would have select vehicles be far more valuable for the ones "lucky" enough to fail before

To put things in perspective my Hyundai Ioniq hybrid actually has a lifetime warranty of the hybrid battery with unlimited miles. Now the one catch is this goes to only 10 years after the car is sold beyond the original owner and presumably Hyundai is calculating allot of owners won't keep the cars forever, but that still means Hyundai is responsible for at least that time. If it really failed as often as you think though, some original owners could get their hybrid batteries replaced by brand new ones 4+ or more times by Hyundai which would simply be incredibly expensive for the company. (For the record I have had zero issues so far with my hybrid battery.)

My assumption is you are either seeing a site where you see the rare exceptions where the batteries fail really early and those are the people posting there (if people are using them aggressively as taxis admittedly the miles may go up for this to happen on the earlier side but that is not normal driving) or possibly being outright misled by people who dislike hybrids for other reasons falsely making claims about battery failure.

The objection is you are providing seriously misleading information on this topic (which does not make sense given what the practical consequences of such a quick failure rate would be), so it is not at all helpful to this thread especially when you are now repeating it.
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by bendix »

Mordoch wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:25 pm ...
Let´s assume you´re right. Why is there a whole market of companies out there making a living of third party hybrid battery replacements? Why do they sell even for Toyotas, of which I think very highly, replacement batteries for a 2016-2020 Prius? For a 2014-2019 Highlander? Wouldnt that strongly indicate there´s a market for it and consequentially this happens maybe a bit more often than one would like?
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by cmr79 »

bendix wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:33 pm
Mordoch wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:25 pm ...
Let´s assume you´re right. Why is there a whole market of companies out there making a living of third party hybrid battery replacements? Why do they sell even for Toyotas, of which I think very highly, replacement batteries for a 2016-2020 Prius? For a 2014-2019 Highlander? Wouldnt that strongly indicate there´s a market for it and consequentially this happens maybe a bit more often than one would like?
This isn't a useful argument unless you actually know the volume of these replacement batteries selling (numerator) vs the number of vehicles on the road in total (denominator). Just because replacement batteries exist and that some batteries fail early does not mean, as has been repeated ad nauseum in this thread, that they are expected to fail early, before the warranty is up.

Of course, the risk of hybrid battery failure may be too high for you personally, and that is fine. I am not trying to convince you to get a hybrid, and I doubt anyone else here is either. But if you overstate the risk in advice to others, you have to expect reasonable pushback.
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HE Pennypacker
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by HE Pennypacker »

I would argue that the ICE engine has reached or will soon reach peak efficiency. Mazda and Nissan engineers took a page from diesel and incorporated variable compression into gas engines. They are able to extract 200+ horsepower from 3 cylinders all while getting close to 40 mpg. That is nuts : https://www.wardsauto.com/2022-10-best- ... rful-3-cyl
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by Mordoch »

bendix wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:33 pm Let´s assume you´re right. Why is there a whole market of companies out there making a living of third party hybrid battery replacements? Why do they sell even for Toyotas, of which I think very highly, replacement batteries for a 2016-2020 Prius? For a 2014-2019 Highlander? Wouldnt that strongly indicate there´s a market for it and consequentially this happens maybe a bit more often than one would like?
Presumably since you are talking about allot of Toyotas which are undisputedly under warranty year wise, we are talking about cars which have been driven a large number of miles so the warranty is no longer covered, which you failed to include with your warnings about when they would fail. One detail is the milage was also a bit lower prior to 2020 for Toyota, but unless you are assuming Toyota is a bunch of idiots at absolute worst you have to assume they found that their new tech means the batteries last longer (although more likely they got better data on how long they lasted.) You also did not make your disclaimer pertain to just older vehicles in the first place.

The point is not that they never fail, the issue is the number that do and when compared to how many total were sold. Again if what you implied was remotely true, you would see a massive gap in used vehicle prices for hybrids close to ten years being sold between those many vehicles "lucky" enough to have had their batteries fail a bit earlier under warranty and get replaced by a new one, versus those where this was not the case. However when you actually look at pricing this is not what you find. (Which means your claims about the frequency and expense don't hold up unless you are arguing virtually every used car buyer for the market is somehow completely clueless somehow or something and word never gets around.)

One last general point to keep in mind on this general subject by the way, is due to the nature of the setup for "mild-hybrids" their batteries are less large/powerful in the first place which means for those cars the expense should inherently not be as great in the first place even if they do eventually fail. (Although the mileage benefits are also less dramatic in those cases as well.)
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by uaeebs86 »

HE Pennypacker wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:47 pm I would argue that the ICE engine has reached or will soon reach peak efficiency. Mazda and Nissan engineers took a page from diesel and incorporated variable compression into gas engines. They are able to extract 200+ horsepower from 3 cylinders all while getting close to 40 mpg. That is nuts : https://www.wardsauto.com/2022-10-best- ... rful-3-cyl
Someone up thread mentioned the Chevy Sprint. I had the 1987 3-cylinder turbo by Suzuki which was only like 107 HP. But with a curb weight of something like 1300 lbs it did zero to 60 in about 8 seconds and got like 46 mpg on the highway.
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by BogleFan510 »

AlohaBill wrote: Fri Mar 24, 2023 12:44 pm No you don’t.
Yes they do.

[seriously, our 'loaded' used Prius we bought for $14k with 40k miles on it just flipped 150k. Our cost per year of operation at 40+mpg is staggeringly low. I note that loaded extras depreciate to almost nothing, so if buying used, look for all the bells and whistles, they will cost like 500-1000 over a base model after a few years]
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by bendix »

Mordoch wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:56 pm
bendix wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:33 pm Let´s assume you´re right. Why is there a whole market of companies out there making a living of third party hybrid battery replacements? Why do they sell even for Toyotas, of which I think very highly, replacement batteries for a 2016-2020 Prius? For a 2014-2019 Highlander? Wouldnt that strongly indicate there´s a market for it and consequentially this happens maybe a bit more often than one would like?
Presumably since you are talking about allot of Toyotas which are undisputedly under warranty year wise, we are talking about cars which have been driven a large number of miles so the warranty is no longer covered, which you failed to include with your warnings about when they would fail. One detail is the milage was also a bit lower prior to 2020 for Toyota, but unless you are assuming Toyota is a bunch of idiots at absolute worst you have to assume they found that their new tech means the batteries last longer (although more likely they got better data on how long they lasted.) You also did not make your disclaimer pertain to just older vehicles in the first place.

The point is not that they never fail, the issue is the number that do and when compared to how many total were sold. Again if what you implied was remotely true, you would see a massive gap in used vehicle prices for hybrids close to ten years being sold between those many vehicles "lucky" enough to have had their batteries fail a bit earlier under warranty and get replaced by a new one, versus those where this was not the case. However when you actually look at pricing this is not what you find. (Which means your claims about the frequency and expense don't hold up unless you are arguing virtually every used car buyer for the market is somehow completely clueless somehow or something and word never gets around.)

One last general point to keep in mind on this general subject by the way, is due to the nature of the setup for "mild-hybrids" their batteries are less large/powerful in the first place which means for those cars the expense should inherently not be as great in the first place even if they do eventually fail. (Although the mileage benefits are also less dramatic in those cases as well.)
Neither you nor I do have the accurate data on when how many hybrids failed, especially depending make, model and year. So we´re both approximating based on evidence or reasoning and I struggle to see how anything could be advanced in this discussion.

What I am saying is that hybrid batteries do fail eventually.

I seem to be on the pessimistic side on when that may happen based on what I read and not willing to take the risk. You and others are on the optimistic side, dont even see a risk. All good. Your money your choice.

I trust you calculated that for your use case as I did for mine. For my use case it didnt make sense. And that´s really enough of this discussion. Cheers
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by tibbitts »

bendix wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 1:29 pm Yea, the $5,000 is for the latest model and if you go through Toyota. But even if you go with refurbished batteries from a third party at the price you shared it wouldnt break even in the example discussed. To me - still - the whole hybrid game makes sense if you´re very comfortable predicting the battery will last for as long as you intend to drive the car, or you want to flip it after X number of years and make it someone else´s problem... which I always thought as morally questionable.
I recently read (okay maybe not from a super-authoritative source) that the average life for the transmission in my ICE car is about 130k miles before it fails to one extent or another. So if I sold my car at 120k miles would that be morally questionable? Would I have to research the average life of all the components and notify the purchaser? That seems like a slippery slope.
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by teCh0010 »

bendix wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:33 pm
Mordoch wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:25 pm ...
Let´s assume you´re right. Why is there a whole market of companies out there making a living of third party hybrid battery replacements? Why do they sell even for Toyotas, of which I think very highly, replacement batteries for a 2016-2020 Prius? For a 2014-2019 Highlander? Wouldnt that strongly indicate there´s a market for it and consequentially this happens maybe a bit more often than one would like?
They sell replacement engine and transmissions for newer cars as well…

If you are going to call something “unreliable” because you can buy the replacement parts then I’m assuming you ride a horse to work?
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by DJN »

Apparently the best way to preserve and prolong the life of your RAV battery is to ensure that the battery fan filter is changed at every service.
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stoptothink
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by stoptothink »

teCh0010 wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 6:11 am
bendix wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:33 pm
Mordoch wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:25 pm ...
Let´s assume you´re right. Why is there a whole market of companies out there making a living of third party hybrid battery replacements? Why do they sell even for Toyotas, of which I think very highly, replacement batteries for a 2016-2020 Prius? For a 2014-2019 Highlander? Wouldnt that strongly indicate there´s a market for it and consequentially this happens maybe a bit more often than one would like?
They sell replacement engine and transmissions for newer cars as well…

If you are going to call something “unreliable” because you can buy the replacement parts then I’m assuming you ride a horse to work?
Well, they do sell other horses too...because they die and all :mrgreen:
CloseEnough
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by CloseEnough »

I have the general impression that a hybrid with two systems (ICE and EV) in one car has less advantages than just going to a full EV. I thought one of the significant advantages of an EV is much less maintenance. But seems like with a hybrid you would have the maintenance disadvantages of both ICE and EV vehicles (just look at all the discussion of battery replacement here, which, btw, does not seem like a big issue to me from what I've read).

I am not (yet) fully educated on the EV world, but as I begin to look at it my bias is against a hybrid because it is a half-way thing - that is, assuming you have two cars and one is ICE. I also wonder how much the EV advantages will improve over the next couple of years. If you can delay the purchase for a year or two, will the improvements coming make that worth the wait. Again, without good information, my bias is yes.
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by ncbill »

bendix wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 12:18 am
Mordoch wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:56 pm
bendix wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 9:33 pm Let´s assume you´re right. Why is there a whole market of companies out there making a living of third party hybrid battery replacements? Why do they sell even for Toyotas, of which I think very highly, replacement batteries for a 2016-2020 Prius? For a 2014-2019 Highlander? Wouldnt that strongly indicate there´s a market for it and consequentially this happens maybe a bit more often than one would like?
Presumably since you are talking about allot of Toyotas which are undisputedly under warranty year wise, we are talking about cars which have been driven a large number of miles so the warranty is no longer covered, which you failed to include with your warnings about when they would fail. One detail is the milage was also a bit lower prior to 2020 for Toyota, but unless you are assuming Toyota is a bunch of idiots at absolute worst you have to assume they found that their new tech means the batteries last longer (although more likely they got better data on how long they lasted.) You also did not make your disclaimer pertain to just older vehicles in the first place.

The point is not that they never fail, the issue is the number that do and when compared to how many total were sold. Again if what you implied was remotely true, you would see a massive gap in used vehicle prices for hybrids close to ten years being sold between those many vehicles "lucky" enough to have had their batteries fail a bit earlier under warranty and get replaced by a new one, versus those where this was not the case. However when you actually look at pricing this is not what you find. (Which means your claims about the frequency and expense don't hold up unless you are arguing virtually every used car buyer for the market is somehow completely clueless somehow or something and word never gets around.)

One last general point to keep in mind on this general subject by the way, is due to the nature of the setup for "mild-hybrids" their batteries are less large/powerful in the first place which means for those cars the expense should inherently not be as great in the first place even if they do eventually fail. (Although the mileage benefits are also less dramatic in those cases as well.)
Neither you nor I do have the accurate data on when how many hybrids failed, especially depending make, model and year. So we´re both approximating based on evidence or reasoning and I struggle to see how anything could be advanced in this discussion.

What I am saying is that hybrid batteries do fail eventually.

I seem to be on the pessimistic side on when that may happen based on what I read and not willing to take the risk. You and others are on the optimistic side, dont even see a risk. All good. Your money your choice.

I trust you calculated that for your use case as I did for mine. For my use case it didnt make sense. And that´s really enough of this discussion. Cheers
Today's 8, 9, or 10-speed & CVT automatic transmissions will cost a whole lot more than a hybrid battery replacement when they need service or more likely, replacement.

Toyota's HSD system replaces the conventional transmission with electric motors which have proven to be reliable, especially versus the above.
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by Elsebet »

CloseEnough wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 6:59 am I have the general impression that a hybrid with two systems (ICE and EV) in one car has less advantages than just going to a full EV. I thought one of the significant advantages of an EV is much less maintenance. But seems like with a hybrid you would have the maintenance disadvantages of both ICE and EV vehicles (just look at all the discussion of battery replacement here, which, btw, does not seem like a big issue to me from what I've read).
This was my thought also. I work from home, my husband commutes about 20 miles per day. We have a 2016 ICE Toyota Tacoma that I want to keep until 2036 if possible (20 years), he usually drives that to work. We also have a 2006 Honda Civic which sees very little mileage, I want to replace it in 4 years (2027) when it is 20 years old. Obviously both of those are dependent on them continuing to inexpensively pass PA's annual yearly inspections.

I was thinking of going full EV to replace the Civic so I wouldn't have the oil change maintenance. I figure in 4 years we should be in better shape charging wise in the US but regardless we still have one ICE vehicle for the very, very occasional long drive we take.
"...the man who adapts himself to his slender means and makes himself wealthy on a little sum, is the truly rich man..." ~Seneca
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quantAndHold
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by quantAndHold »

Elsebet wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 10:00 am
CloseEnough wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 6:59 am I have the general impression that a hybrid with two systems (ICE and EV) in one car has less advantages than just going to a full EV. I thought one of the significant advantages of an EV is much less maintenance. But seems like with a hybrid you would have the maintenance disadvantages of both ICE and EV vehicles (just look at all the discussion of battery replacement here, which, btw, does not seem like a big issue to me from what I've read).
This was my thought also. I work from home, my husband commutes about 20 miles per day. We have a 2016 ICE Toyota Tacoma that I want to keep until 2036 if possible (20 years), he usually drives that to work. We also have a 2006 Honda Civic which sees very little mileage, I want to replace it in 4 years (2027) when it is 20 years old. Obviously both of those are dependent on them continuing to inexpensively pass PA's annual yearly inspections.

I was thinking of going full EV to replace the Civic so I wouldn't have the oil change maintenance. I figure in 4 years we should be in better shape charging wise in the US but regardless we still have one ICE vehicle for the very, very occasional long drive we take.
For a low mileage car that you drive locally, you will never care what the charging infrastructure is like. Most people with driving habits like that never charge away from home.
teCh0010
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by teCh0010 »

quantAndHold wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 10:09 am
Elsebet wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 10:00 am
CloseEnough wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 6:59 am I have the general impression that a hybrid with two systems (ICE and EV) in one car has less advantages than just going to a full EV. I thought one of the significant advantages of an EV is much less maintenance. But seems like with a hybrid you would have the maintenance disadvantages of both ICE and EV vehicles (just look at all the discussion of battery replacement here, which, btw, does not seem like a big issue to me from what I've read).
This was my thought also. I work from home, my husband commutes about 20 miles per day. We have a 2016 ICE Toyota Tacoma that I want to keep until 2036 if possible (20 years), he usually drives that to work. We also have a 2006 Honda Civic which sees very little mileage, I want to replace it in 4 years (2027) when it is 20 years old. Obviously both of those are dependent on them continuing to inexpensively pass PA's annual yearly inspections.

I was thinking of going full EV to replace the Civic so I wouldn't have the oil change maintenance. I figure in 4 years we should be in better shape charging wise in the US but regardless we still have one ICE vehicle for the very, very occasional long drive we take.
For a low mileage car that you drive locally, you will never care what the charging infrastructure is like. Most people with driving habits like that never charge away from home.
The combo of an ICE for road trips and an EV for commuting in a two car household is the perfect combo. Charge at home every night, no worries about public infrastructure.

My brother in law commutes 50 miles (total round trip) a day, and his wife is a SAHM who drives the kids to school and spends most of her time in their suburb. She has a Honda Pilot, he has a Tesla Model 3 and that has been a really good combo for them.
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by bendix »

tibbitts wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 12:30 am
bendix wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 1:29 pm Yea, the $5,000 is for the latest model and if you go through Toyota. But even if you go with refurbished batteries from a third party at the price you shared it wouldnt break even in the example discussed. To me - still - the whole hybrid game makes sense if you´re very comfortable predicting the battery will last for as long as you intend to drive the car, or you want to flip it after X number of years and make it someone else´s problem... which I always thought as morally questionable.
I recently read (okay maybe not from a super-authoritative source) that the average life for the transmission in my ICE car is about 130k miles before it fails to one extent or another. So if I sold my car at 120k miles would that be morally questionable? Would I have to research the average life of all the components and notify the purchaser? That seems like a slippery slope.
You are free to do whatever you like. When I sold cars I had them properly serviced before and told buyers where the car stood. Could I have gotten another 500 bucks or maybe 1000 bucks if I didnt? Maybe, but I dont like the idea of selling problems or disguising problems. And I am fortunate enough to not have to.
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by stoptothink »

bendix wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:16 am
tibbitts wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 12:30 am
bendix wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 1:29 pm Yea, the $5,000 is for the latest model and if you go through Toyota. But even if you go with refurbished batteries from a third party at the price you shared it wouldnt break even in the example discussed. To me - still - the whole hybrid game makes sense if you´re very comfortable predicting the battery will last for as long as you intend to drive the car, or you want to flip it after X number of years and make it someone else´s problem... which I always thought as morally questionable.
I recently read (okay maybe not from a super-authoritative source) that the average life for the transmission in my ICE car is about 130k miles before it fails to one extent or another. So if I sold my car at 120k miles would that be morally questionable? Would I have to research the average life of all the components and notify the purchaser? That seems like a slippery slope.
You are free to do whatever you like. When I sold cars I had them properly serviced before and told buyers where the car stood. Could I have gotten another 500 bucks or maybe 1000 bucks if I didnt? Maybe, but I dont like the idea of selling problems or disguising problems. And I am fortunate enough to not have to.
Even if you did that, the transmission could still go the second the buyer drove it away. Surely you can see that you are applying an odd double-standard to hybrids and batteries?
Lastrun
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by Lastrun »

beardsicles wrote: Sun Mar 26, 2023 12:00 am Our Prius battery is on its 15th year of faithful service. Can’t believe we’re still having these conversations about batteries.
Well, YMMV, mine went at year 11, less than 200K miles. I keep my cars 15 years, but not my Mariner.

Edited to add that I had a good experience with the car, just felt the battery life cut the useful life short.

Also, this is 2009 hybrid battery technology, which if I am not mistaken, was based on the Toyota technology at the time. I am sure times have changed.
Leesbro63
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by Leesbro63 »

Lastrun wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:31 am
Well, YMMV, mine went at year 11, less than 200K miles. I keep my cars 15 years, but not my Mariner.
Could this just be a function of the same old 50 year problem: GM/Ford/Chrysler car quality way behind Honda/Toyota quality? (Mariner is a Ford product, for reference)
stoptothink
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by stoptothink »

Leesbro63 wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:35 am
Lastrun wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:31 am
Well, YMMV, mine went at year 11, less than 200K miles. I keep my cars 15 years, but not my Mariner.
Could this just be a function of the same old 50 year problem: GM/Ford/Chrysler car quality way behind Honda/Toyota quality? (Mariner is a Ford product, for reference)
It could be a function of "parts just fail, some before others". Ford's hybrids have a pretty strong history and reputation for reliability, probably stronger than the Honda hybrids. Besides, 11yrs and almost 200k miles, sounds like those batteries already paid for themselves.
sgams
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by sgams »

Do I have to get a hybrid?
Not necessarily
work out the math of approximately how long it would take to break even based on gas savings
When I recently replaced my 20+ yr old vehicle, I wanted to get a hybrid. But the price difference was not feasible, even for a PHEV (though I only looked at Rav4 prime, for which dealer wanted a $5K markup).
augustwest73 wrote: Fri Mar 24, 2023 12:39 pm Hi,

I did a search on this in the forums and couldn't find anything bout this topic. Looking to replace my 20 year old vehicle with 250K miles on it and the dealers have a lot more hybrid selection than straight gas. This is in CA. Are the hybrids the way to go? I've heard the batteries only last 10 years so I wouldn't be able to get 20 years out of it without replacing the battery. We're looking at the RAV4 or CRV/HRV.

Help! Is hybrid the "boglehead" way to go now? I really try to avoid buying the latest tech or fads and haven't bought a car in 20 years so I'm out of the loop. My next purchase is going to be replacing my home rotary phone with a cell phone!! :happy
Lastrun
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by Lastrun »

Leesbro63 wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:35 am
Lastrun wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:31 am
Well, YMMV, mine went at year 11, less than 200K miles. I keep my cars 15 years, but not my Mariner.
Could this just be a function of the same old 50 year problem: GM/Ford/Chrysler car quality way behind Honda/Toyota quality? (Mariner is a Ford product, for reference)
Not 100% correct at least with respect to my car, this is the same as what I recall from 2009 when I bought the Mariner:

https://www.drivechicago.com/reviews/20 ... pendently.

tl:dr
Mercury's hybrid, the Mariner, is a compact sport-utility vehicle that uses a hybrid technology that is licensed from Toyota.
Now, this does not mean Ford didn't screw it up some how, and whether this applies specifically to the battery.
aquaman
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by aquaman »

Valuethinker wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 3:48 am I agree that EVs do not meet the criteria you have-- right now. And there's a global shortage of components: EVs + PHEVs are 20%+ of new car sales in China, Germany, Britain (roughly speaking, the world's largest, 3rd & 4th largest new car markets). Only about 5% of US sales, I believe?
Correct, and of those, roughly 40% took place in California.
aquaman
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by aquaman »

KyleAAA wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:24 pm 2.) You'd need to be very unlucky for the battery to die after just 10 years. Toyota's warranty is 10 years/150k miles precisely because it's extremely rare.
I am not getting into the debate over the longevity of high voltage batteries, but the 10 year battery warranties are offered primarily becuase of marketing rather than anything else.

Chrysler, for instance, famously used to offer lifetime powertrain warranties on their vehicles, which obviously did not have anything to do their powertrains being especially reliable. Lots and lots of manufacturers have done the same thing over the years.
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by finite_difference »

aquaman wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 2:55 pm
KyleAAA wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:24 pm 2.) You'd need to be very unlucky for the battery to die after just 10 years. Toyota's warranty is 10 years/150k miles precisely because it's extremely rare.
I am not getting into the debate over the longevity of high voltage batteries, but the 10 year battery warranties are offered primarily becuase of marketing rather than anything else.

Chrysler, for instance, famously used to offer lifetime powertrain warranties on their vehicles, which obviously did not have anything to do their powertrains being especially reliable. Lots and lots of manufacturers have done the same thing over the years.
I would worry more about the automatic transmission than a hybrid battery. Automatic transmission failures cost thousands of dollars. CVT failures can cost $9,000.

My understanding is that the Toyota hybrids don’t use an automatic transmission — instead they use an eCVT that is extremely reliable and basically never breaks (totally different than a CVT.)
The most precious gift we can offer anyone is our attention. - Thich Nhat Hanh
aquaman
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by aquaman »

finite_difference wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 3:05 pm
aquaman wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 2:55 pm
KyleAAA wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 5:24 pm 2.) You'd need to be very unlucky for the battery to die after just 10 years. Toyota's warranty is 10 years/150k miles precisely because it's extremely rare.
I am not getting into the debate over the longevity of high voltage batteries, but the 10 year battery warranties are offered primarily becuase of marketing rather than anything else.

Chrysler, for instance, famously used to offer lifetime powertrain warranties on their vehicles, which obviously did not have anything to do their powertrains being especially reliable. Lots and lots of manufacturers have done the same thing over the years.
I would worry more about the automatic transmission than a hybrid battery. Automatic transmission failures cost thousands of dollars. CVT failures can cost $9,000.

My understanding is that the Toyota hybrids don’t use an automatic transmission — instead they use an eCVT that is extremely reliable and basically never breaks (totally different than a CVT.)
My point is that you cannot look at the length of the warranty as some indicia of reliability. In fact, over the years, the manufacturers of some of the least reliable vehicles (or at least of the vehicles with the worst reputation for reliability) have intentionally offered longer warranties as a marketing tool.

Again, I am not otherwise getting into the debate over the longevity of high voltage batteries. My only point here is that the argument that some are making about the length of battery warranties serving as evidence of their reliability simply does not work.
tibbitts
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by tibbitts »

bendix wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:16 am
tibbitts wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 12:30 am
bendix wrote: Tue Mar 28, 2023 1:29 pm Yea, the $5,000 is for the latest model and if you go through Toyota. But even if you go with refurbished batteries from a third party at the price you shared it wouldnt break even in the example discussed. To me - still - the whole hybrid game makes sense if you´re very comfortable predicting the battery will last for as long as you intend to drive the car, or you want to flip it after X number of years and make it someone else´s problem... which I always thought as morally questionable.
I recently read (okay maybe not from a super-authoritative source) that the average life for the transmission in my ICE car is about 130k miles before it fails to one extent or another. So if I sold my car at 120k miles would that be morally questionable? Would I have to research the average life of all the components and notify the purchaser? That seems like a slippery slope.
You are free to do whatever you like. When I sold cars I had them properly serviced before and told buyers where the car stood. Could I have gotten another 500 bucks or maybe 1000 bucks if I didnt? Maybe, but I dont like the idea of selling problems or disguising problems. And I am fortunate enough to not have to.
So what would you do if you were selling the car at 120k, assuming you were selling it because you knew the average transmission life was around 130k and maybe some other major components were also likely to fail (again on average) at about the same milage? This isn't about notifying the buyer of a problem that's currently happening, or trying to conceal a current problem; it's about notifying a buyer about a problem that's likely to occur in the future. Obviously you'd probably be selling the car because you want to make those potential problems someone else's; do you believe anyone except you would consider that "morally questionable"?
tibbitts
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by tibbitts »

I don't have a strong pro or con feeling about electric in general, but expect that part of the problem some of us have to overcome is our experience with batteries in other consumer devices. Most of us don't have a technical understanding of if or how vehicle batteries differ from roughly similar-technology batteries in these other devices, which at least in my experience typically fail before ten years and don't even claim to be able to support 1000+ charging cycles.
aquaman
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by aquaman »

This has been an interesting thread, although I am a little surprised that it has gone on for as long as it has without anyone asking the OP what he is looking for in a vehicle. For plenty of people out there, for instance, the issue with the Prius doesn't have anything to do with the longevity of its battery.

In fact, Prius sales have been declining for a number of years, as it's fairly expensive for what it is (very basic Point A to Point B transportation), and just isn't fun to drive.

Battery electric vehicles have plenty of very serious cons as well (especially if you can't plug in at home and/or want to road trip), but one of the things that's attractive about them is instant torque and just overall much better performance than you can get in a hybrid. The OP may or may not care about that, but why even discuss other stuff without first finding out what the OP's priorities are?
cmr79
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by cmr79 »

Lastrun wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 12:43 pm
Leesbro63 wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:35 am
Lastrun wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 11:31 am
Well, YMMV, mine went at year 11, less than 200K miles. I keep my cars 15 years, but not my Mariner.
Could this just be a function of the same old 50 year problem: GM/Ford/Chrysler car quality way behind Honda/Toyota quality? (Mariner is a Ford product, for reference)
Not 100% correct at least with respect to my car, this is the same as what I recall from 2009 when I bought the Mariner:

https://www.drivechicago.com/reviews/20 ... pendently.

tl:dr
Mercury's hybrid, the Mariner, is a compact sport-utility vehicle that uses a hybrid technology that is licensed from Toyota.
Now, this does not mean Ford didn't screw it up some how, and whether this applies specifically to the battery.
Interesting history. Ford developed their hybrid powertrain for the Escape/Mariner independently of Toyota but found out after the fact that some parts were similar enough to infringe on Toyota's patents, so they ultimately licensed the technology and shared some direct fuel injection technology that Toyota was interested in as a quid pro quo.

I'm not sure what specific parts were substantially similar and how that impacts reliability of the powertrain; Toyota also used a different battery supplier (Matsushita/Panasonic) vs Ford (Sanyo), which seems more relevant to battery longevity. Honda used the same supplier for earlier hybrid batteries as Toyota. Since 2015, I believe most Toyota hybrids have moved on from the early NiMH batteries to lithium ion, though some cold weather AWD models retained NiMH batteries through the last generation.
cmr79
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Re: Do I have to get a hybrid?

Post by cmr79 »

aquaman wrote: Wed Mar 29, 2023 4:03 pm This has been an interesting thread, although I am a little surprised that it has gone on for as long as it has without anyone asking the OP what he is looking for in a vehicle. For plenty of people out there, for instance, the issue with the Prius doesn't have anything to do with the longevity of its battery.

In fact, Prius sales have been declining for a number of years, as it's fairly expensive for what it is (very basic Point A to Point B transportation), and just isn't fun to drive.

Battery electric vehicles have plenty of very serious cons as well (especially if you can't plug in at home and/or want to road trip), but one of the things that's attractive about them is instant torque and just overall much better performance than you can get in a hybrid. The OP may or may not care about that, but why even discuss other stuff without first finding out what the OP's priorities are?
OP specifically asked about battery longevity and didn't really indicate much else regarding their needs in a car, so the extended discussion of it is surprisingly on-topic for this sort of thread!

Toyota seems to have addressed some of these issues with the new Prius, which has far more power and looks (I think, anyway) a lot sleeker and better than the old stereotypical Prius. The new Prius Prime is even more powerful and does 0-60 in 6.6 seconds, which is faster than my (much bigger and heavier SUV) EV.

Is it "fun" to drive? Who knows...that is subjective, and maybe OP only values vehicles for point-to-point utility (they did ask what entails a "Boglehead" vehicle after all!), Or they only would find a manual transmission loud V8 ICE to be entertaining? No clue. And no clue either whether OP likes/hates/is indifferent to the Prius or Toyota vehicles aesthetically. It would be nice for them to chime in, though...curious what impact if any this conversation has on their thought process.
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