A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
I did not find that survey but found a related post viewtopic.php?t=366519
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
If anyone wants to short a stock, let me know. I’ll buy a share and it will immediately plummet. You’re welcome.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
I think you are looking for this https://www.lostoak.com/ls/diehards/contest/manlymatt83 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:20 am Somewhere at some point someone posted a link to a bunch of smart people who made predictions about the market in the past and were wrong over 50% of the time. Anyone have that handy?
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
I have the jitters about Bogleheads (or "kinda" BH) who are considering selling their equity position and looking to stuff it in cash/mmf. Do you not understand how this thing works? Hint: buy low sell high!
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
I think even Buffett said something like "if you arent willing to hold a stock for 10 years, dont think about buying it to hold for 10 minutes".
Of course, Buffett doesnt buy and hold forever himself, and I think its fair to say his approach has outpaced the usual buy and hold index fund strategy by alot (I think its done 2x the S&P?), but the average (or even 99th percentile) investor just doesnt have that level of skill.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Or:smooth_rough wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:34 pm Stocks to get crushed beginning 2023 ?
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/29/double- ... anley.html
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 022-11?amp
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Or from the last paragraph in your article..Leesbro63 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 4:43 amOr:smooth_rough wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 7:34 pm Stocks to get crushed beginning 2023 ?
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/29/double- ... anley.html
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 022-11?amp
So we have market will tank, market will soar and market will be flat. Which just goes to show that nobody knows nuttin (which we all know)In regards to a recent note from Goldman Sachs that said the stock market will likely end flat in 2023......
To err is to be human, to really mess up, use a computer
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Here are a few more of the big guys outlooks to review and add to the discussion. This kind of makes me wonder how hard it would be to take a chart and have all of their predictions back 15-30 years and then look at the market performance for each of the years. Curious how much validity is in the wisdom and reports from these prestigious institutions or if we would be better off consulting with a fortune tell.
+1 to overvalued likely to drop Back Rock- https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/lit ... k-2023.pdf
+1 overvalued Equities but at least bonds are coming back into fashion! Vanguard- https://investor.vanguard.com/investor- ... al-summary
0 - Goldman says equities will be flat. Also talking up bonds some. Goldman- https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/p ... -outlooks/
+1 Public equities being overvalued, recommend hunting in private equity for deals UBS- https://www.ubs.com/global/en/media/dis ... -2023.html
0- Fidelity says probably choppy volatility but likely flat in equities, Bonds seem to be a bright spot. Fidelity- https://www.fidelity.com/learning-cente ... et-outlook
+1 to overvalued likely to drop Back Rock- https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/lit ... k-2023.pdf
+1 overvalued Equities but at least bonds are coming back into fashion! Vanguard- https://investor.vanguard.com/investor- ... al-summary
0 - Goldman says equities will be flat. Also talking up bonds some. Goldman- https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/p ... -outlooks/
+1 Public equities being overvalued, recommend hunting in private equity for deals UBS- https://www.ubs.com/global/en/media/dis ... -2023.html
0- Fidelity says probably choppy volatility but likely flat in equities, Bonds seem to be a bright spot. Fidelity- https://www.fidelity.com/learning-cente ... et-outlook
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
They are all going to be right at some in the point future, but their timing maybe off by a quarter or a year or two . Pretty much the same as the dart board with the caveat, these analysts are probably well compensated for offering their views.NearlyRetired wrote: ↑Wed Nov 30, 2022 7:03 am So we have market will tank, market will soar and market will be flat. Which just goes to show that nobody knows nuttin (which we all know)
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Morgan Stanley says stocks are in death zone. Forecasting 26% market decline 2023.
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
And what did they predict for 2022 in late 2021?smooth_rough wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:49 pm Morgan Stanley says stocks are in death zone. Forecasting 26% market decline 2023.
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Last February: "The balance of corporate fundamentals against a less accommodative U.S. Federal Reserve could create modest equity returns, with opportunities for generating alpha."Leesbro63 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:17 pmAnd what did they predict for 2022 in late 2021?smooth_rough wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:49 pm Morgan Stanley says stocks are in death zone. Forecasting 26% market decline 2023.
Let's look at a few (of many!) Morgan Stanley funds for 2022:
MPAIX (Advantage Portfolio) - down 54 percent
MPEGX (Discovery Portfolio) - down 63 percent
MSEQX (Growth Portfolio) - down 60 percent
CPIDX (Insight Fund) - down 61 percent
Wow... you could have set half your money on fire and still outperformed Morgan Stanley.
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Thanks for that reply. Maybe Morgan Stanley is a contrary indicator and 2023 will be a big “up year” for equities.Tom_T wrote: ↑Fri Feb 24, 2023 6:02 amLast February: "The balance of corporate fundamentals against a less accommodative U.S. Federal Reserve could create modest equity returns, with opportunities for generating alpha."Leesbro63 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:17 pmAnd what did they predict for 2022 in late 2021?smooth_rough wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:49 pm Morgan Stanley says stocks are in death zone. Forecasting 26% market decline 2023.
Let's look at a few (of many!) Morgan Stanley funds for 2022:
MPAIX (Advantage Portfolio) - down 54 percent
MPEGX (Discovery Portfolio) - down 63 percent
MSEQX (Growth Portfolio) - down 60 percent
CPIDX (Insight Fund) - down 61 percent
Wow... you could have set half your money on fire and still outperformed Morgan Stanley.
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
I’m sure that Morgan Stanley has fired the analysts who made those really bad predictions in 2022.Tom_T wrote: ↑Fri Feb 24, 2023 6:02 amLast February: "The balance of corporate fundamentals against a less accommodative U.S. Federal Reserve could create modest equity returns, with opportunities for generating alpha."Leesbro63 wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 4:17 pmAnd what did they predict for 2022 in late 2021?smooth_rough wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:49 pm Morgan Stanley says stocks are in death zone. Forecasting 26% market decline 2023.
Let's look at a few (of many!) Morgan Stanley funds for 2022:
MPAIX (Advantage Portfolio) - down 54 percent
MPEGX (Discovery Portfolio) - down 63 percent
MSEQX (Growth Portfolio) - down 60 percent
CPIDX (Insight Fund) - down 61 percent
Wow... you could have set half your money on fire and still outperformed Morgan Stanley.
I expect that the 2023 predictions will be spot on!
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
- no doubt. It is interesting to watch Bloomberg where they usually have snippets of analysts comments (after their commercial break). One will say, turn right, the other one will say turn left, someone else will say reverse, etc. (all of these couched in a semi-intelligent sounding sound bites, no less ).
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
His predictions are as good as mine.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:29 am Market crash in 60 days?
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sto ... n-collapse
Interest rates will drop, and stocks will soar before tomatoes are ripe.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
CNBC: Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
And what is the history of recessions and stock market returns?smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:12 pm CNBC: Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Put it on the calendar and then check back.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:29 am Market crash in 60 days?
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sto ... n-collapse
Last edited by arcticpineapplecorp. on Wed Apr 12, 2023 6:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
This is from a month ago, from March 8smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:12 pm CNBC: Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
And what is the history of ANYBODY being able to predict recessions? Jeremy Siegel devotes a full chapter of Stocks for the Long Run to "Stocks and the Business Cycle," and about half of it is devoted to example after example after example of the ludicrous inaccuracy of recession forecasts from various authorities.Johm221122 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:57 pmAnd what is the history of recessions and stock market returns?smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:12 pm CNBC: Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
It's only 3 weeks away, May 8.arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:59 pmPut it on the calendar and then check back.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:29 am Market crash in 60 days?
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sto ... n-collapse
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Documents released wednesday (today).watchnerd wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:59 pmThis is from a month ago, from March 8smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:12 pm CNBC: Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/fed-exp ... 0Wednesday.
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
The Fox Business news link you posted earlier was from March 8.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:25 pmToday.watchnerd wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:59 pmThis is from a month ago, from March 8smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:12 pm CNBC: Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/12/fed-exp ... 0Wednesday.
"Published March 8, 2023 9:48am EST"
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sto ... n-collapse
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
As long as one's asset allocation is correct and one is looking at the 10-20 year or longer horizon, it's is a non-issue.
Who do you trust? Who has a good crystal ball?
Who do you trust? Who has a good crystal ball?
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
shoot, it's May 11th. Did I miss the market crash or was the US stock market still up 7.5% YTD as of May 8th?watchnerd wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:13 pmIt's only 3 weeks away, May 8.arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:59 pmPut it on the calendar and then check back.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:29 am Market crash in 60 days?
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sto ... n-collapse
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions |
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
HA but they didn't mention the year thougharcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Thu May 11, 2023 8:35 pmshoot, it's May 11th. Did I miss the market crash or was the US stock market still up 7.5% YTD as of May 8th?watchnerd wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:13 pmIt's only 3 weeks away, May 8.arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:59 pmPut it on the calendar and then check back.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:29 am Market crash in 60 days?
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sto ... n-collapse
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
no, they did. they said "Market Crash in 60 days". That means market crash in two months.rgs wrote: ↑Fri May 12, 2023 8:12 amHA but they didn't mention the year thougharcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Thu May 11, 2023 8:35 pmshoot, it's May 11th. Did I miss the market crash or was the US stock market still up 7.5% YTD as of May 8th?watchnerd wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 7:13 pmIt's only 3 weeks away, May 8.arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: ↑Wed Apr 12, 2023 5:59 pmPut it on the calendar and then check back.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:29 am Market crash in 60 days?
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/sto ... n-collapse
Didn't happen that way, did it?
What does that poster now say about the market crash that was supposed to have come 4 days ago, yet didn't?
It's hard to accept the truth when the lies were exactly what you wanted to hear. Investing is simple, but not easy. Buy, hold & rebalance low cost index funds & manage taxable events. Asking Portfolio Questions |
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
That debt ceiling, though...
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
The latest bogey-persons from the punditry are: 1. declining nominal GDP will squeeze earnings; 2. the bank issue is causing more of a credit crunch than is realized; 3. interest rates will remain higher and longer than "the market" expects.
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
None of those sound cray cray
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
True, although 1 and 3 have been around for many months now and 3 always seems like it is saying "I understand the market better than the market and most investors understand the market." On the daily podcasts and shows I don't get there is a lot of research behind statement 3.
If together or separately these don't cause a downturn, we have one heck of a resilient economy. Which I am kind of banking on.
If together or separately these don't cause a downturn, we have one heck of a resilient economy. Which I am kind of banking on.
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
This isn't aging well. Not surprising given the source (MS).smooth_rough wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:49 pm Morgan Stanley says stocks are in death zone. Forecasting 26% market decline 2023.
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
S&P closed 2022 at 3839. A 26% decline implies a year end 2023 value of 2841.WhitePuma wrote: ↑Mon Jul 10, 2023 7:39 pmThis isn't aging well. Not surprising given the source (MS).smooth_rough wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:49 pm Morgan Stanley says stocks are in death zone. Forecasting 26% market decline 2023.
S&P closed today at 4409.
So for MS prediction to come true, we need to see a 36% decline from today to year end.
Possible, but methinks not likely.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
I think they are forecasting what will happen to their funds, not the broad market.smooth_rough wrote: ↑Tue Feb 21, 2023 3:49 pm Morgan Stanley says stocks are in death zone. Forecasting 26% market decline 2023.
Ram
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
2 is the thing to watch. It's always "everything is fine" and then too many delinquencies turn into defaults and "everything is not fine, and you can't have any money".H20SnoSki wrote: ↑Fri May 12, 2023 2:32 pm True, although 1 and 3 have been around for many months now and 3 always seems like it is saying "I understand the market better than the market and most investors understand the market." On the daily podcasts and shows I don't get there is a lot of research behind statement 3.
If together or separately these don't cause a downturn, we have one heck of a resilient economy. Which I am kind of banking on.
Just look at that uptrend...
If the trend continues at that slope, it's looking like year end 2024. If the slope changes to late 2019 (covid savings exhausted), it'll be earlier.
Edit: And let's not forget that federal student loan repayment has been on pause...
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
I wish I had seen this post sooner.
The first line "I want to say this carefully. This is not an optimistic "stay the course" post and it's not a pessimistic "OMG do something" post. It's directed at people who are feeling very uncomfortable" resonates with me.
I will give my example.
In Nov 21, I was up close to $200k in unrealized gains. Home ownership looked plausible in my VHCOL area. Slowly, beginning in 1/22, that $200k started to shrink, to where I was down close to $110k in Oct 22. Mainly in all in tech. Fortunately, I had invested in NVDA back in 2013 or so, although, not much at the time, and that buoyed my portfolio so I was "only" down the $100k. Probably would've been close to -$160k otherwise.
Seeing my portfolio so red gave me flashbacks to how poorly my parents did back in 08-09 and how their financial illiteracy cost them a decade plus in recovery (only put in money once, and definitely no DCA) to break even. Generational trauma stuff, right there.
SO, a few months later, when I was "only" down about $20k, I sold out of all equities in my non-retirement accounts. I did the math and collecting 5% in treasuries over the course of the year would at least get me to break even.
Little did I know that just 6 short months later, had I held at least my biggest couple positions (all in tech), I would've been back up about $120-$140k. I stopped doing the math after seeing my "lost profit" in NVDA ($100k in lost profits had I held from earlier this year to now just in that one position).
On the bright side, I am going to do a bit better than breaking even since treasury rates have increased a bit, so that's nice.
I do mind the lost profits but not as much as knowing that I made a completely rational decision at the time which backfired tremendously. Emotions got the better of me as I watched those unrealized gains slowly fall from $200k to -$110k so when it finally started to climb out of the sewer and I got to -$20k I knew I had to take my shot and get out. Unfortunately, those "jitters" of crashing back down after the gain up to Feb 23 finally got to me (as did all the "recession incoming" talk).
My rationale was that had I held, and we went back down again, I would not have been able to afford a home at all in my VHCOL area. By getting out, I was at least maintaining my cash and would have a chance at home ownership.
I still don't have a home yet and haven't seriously looked at any places since all the decent locations are $1.2m+ in my area.
Oh well. A bunch of money down the drain. At least I didn't sell anything in my retirement accounts.
The first line "I want to say this carefully. This is not an optimistic "stay the course" post and it's not a pessimistic "OMG do something" post. It's directed at people who are feeling very uncomfortable" resonates with me.
I will give my example.
In Nov 21, I was up close to $200k in unrealized gains. Home ownership looked plausible in my VHCOL area. Slowly, beginning in 1/22, that $200k started to shrink, to where I was down close to $110k in Oct 22. Mainly in all in tech. Fortunately, I had invested in NVDA back in 2013 or so, although, not much at the time, and that buoyed my portfolio so I was "only" down the $100k. Probably would've been close to -$160k otherwise.
Seeing my portfolio so red gave me flashbacks to how poorly my parents did back in 08-09 and how their financial illiteracy cost them a decade plus in recovery (only put in money once, and definitely no DCA) to break even. Generational trauma stuff, right there.
SO, a few months later, when I was "only" down about $20k, I sold out of all equities in my non-retirement accounts. I did the math and collecting 5% in treasuries over the course of the year would at least get me to break even.
Little did I know that just 6 short months later, had I held at least my biggest couple positions (all in tech), I would've been back up about $120-$140k. I stopped doing the math after seeing my "lost profit" in NVDA ($100k in lost profits had I held from earlier this year to now just in that one position).
On the bright side, I am going to do a bit better than breaking even since treasury rates have increased a bit, so that's nice.
I do mind the lost profits but not as much as knowing that I made a completely rational decision at the time which backfired tremendously. Emotions got the better of me as I watched those unrealized gains slowly fall from $200k to -$110k so when it finally started to climb out of the sewer and I got to -$20k I knew I had to take my shot and get out. Unfortunately, those "jitters" of crashing back down after the gain up to Feb 23 finally got to me (as did all the "recession incoming" talk).
My rationale was that had I held, and we went back down again, I would not have been able to afford a home at all in my VHCOL area. By getting out, I was at least maintaining my cash and would have a chance at home ownership.
I still don't have a home yet and haven't seriously looked at any places since all the decent locations are $1.2m+ in my area.
Oh well. A bunch of money down the drain. At least I didn't sell anything in my retirement accounts.
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Sorry to hear about your story. But I think if you take the correct lessons then you will definitely come up stronger in the long run.CrisisAverted wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 1:12 am I wish I had seen this post sooner.
The first line "I want to say this carefully. This is not an optimistic "stay the course" post and it's not a pessimistic "OMG do something" post. It's directed at people who are feeling very uncomfortable" resonates with me.
I will give my example.
In Nov 21, I was up close to $200k in unrealized gains. Home ownership looked plausible in my VHCOL area. Slowly, beginning in 1/22, that $200k started to shrink, to where I was down close to $110k in Oct 22. Mainly in all in tech. Fortunately, I had invested in NVDA back in 2013 or so, although, not much at the time, and that buoyed my portfolio so I was "only" down the $100k. Probably would've been close to -$160k otherwise.
Seeing my portfolio so red gave me flashbacks to how poorly my parents did back in 08-09 and how their financial illiteracy cost them a decade plus in recovery (only put in money once, and definitely no DCA) to break even. Generational trauma stuff, right there.
SO, a few months later, when I was "only" down about $20k, I sold out of all equities in my non-retirement accounts. I did the math and collecting 5% in treasuries over the course of the year would at least get me to break even.
Little did I know that just 6 short months later, had I held at least my biggest couple positions (all in tech), I would've been back up about $120-$140k. I stopped doing the math after seeing my "lost profit" in NVDA ($100k in lost profits had I held from earlier this year to now just in that one position).
On the bright side, I am going to do a bit better than breaking even since treasury rates have increased a bit, so that's nice.
I do mind the lost profits but not as much as knowing that I made a completely rational decision at the time which backfired tremendously. Emotions got the better of me as I watched those unrealized gains slowly fall from $200k to -$110k so when it finally started to climb out of the sewer and I got to -$20k I knew I had to take my shot and get out. Unfortunately, those "jitters" of crashing back down after the gain up to Feb 23 finally got to me (as did all the "recession incoming" talk).
My rationale was that had I held, and we went back down again, I would not have been able to afford a home at all in my VHCOL area. By getting out, I was at least maintaining my cash and would have a chance at home ownership.
I still don't have a home yet and haven't seriously looked at any places since all the decent locations are $1.2m+ in my area.
Oh well. A bunch of money down the drain. At least I didn't sell anything in my retirement accounts.
in my opinion the correct lessons are
1. don't be betting a huge chunk of your wealth on single stocks. It is very difficult nay impossible to consistently believe in story about individual stocks. That you were able to ride it up for 10 years is an achievement in itself, i surely would not be able to do. I would be the first one to take profits. On the other hand i find investing in index funds and holding them through bull and bear market much more manageable. It takes the emotion out of it to a large extent, it doesn't matter if any individual stock is doing good or bad what matter is really how the macro economy is doing, and how your individual economy is doing, ie. how safe is your employment, how much you can save and keep investing every month. Then leave the rest to the economy. I think if you focus on these two things going forward and eschew individual stocks for more than small chunk of your wealth, then this will be a expensive albeit well learned lesson
2. The other important lesson is about managing risk. Everyone needs to manage risk based on their own circumstances. Any amount that you intend to or need to spend within a short period of time even up to 5 years, should never be invested in the stock market let alone individual stocks.
Good luck.
superstition: belief that market will one day come around to your concept of fair value
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Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Many others wish they had seen the first post in this thread sooner. In fact, it's such an important thread, compared to all the consumer stuff and PE10 cultism, it's a pity it's not permanently the top thread.CrisisAverted wrote: ↑Wed Jul 19, 2023 1:12 am I wish I had seen this post sooner.
The first line "I want to say this carefully. This is not an optimistic "stay the course" post and it's not a pessimistic "OMG do something" post. It's directed at people who are feeling very uncomfortable" resonates with me.
I will give my example. . . . .
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Looking at the possibilities and peoples experiences, confirms my personal strategy of approximately 50% fixed income (currently CDs and Treasuries) & 50% in broad stock market (mostly VTI, index 500 and an small allocation to international stock mkt).
My taxable account has more in fixed income, but as the stock market prices goes down, I buy more stock market in taxable. When the stock market goes up, I buy more fixed income in tax deferred.
I just re-balance when the allocation strays too far from target (more than 5%). This allows me to get a fair return on investment, but not the maximum or optimum income. My no stress, sleep at night, safe allocation is 50%, since I have enough savings, only need to survive the inflation.
One should not invest more than 4% of their savings in any one stock. If a single stock goes up drastically one can just sell the excess and keep the base investment, if they believe in the stock (just skim off excess).
With only 50% in the stock market and no need to touch that money in the next 10 years, there is no point in getting into a panic over the market.
The news pundits are constantly stirring up fear and panic, such as the gold bugs:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/death-en ... 41464.html
and
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rich- ... 06220.html
[link format fixed by admin LadyGeek]
My taxable account has more in fixed income, but as the stock market prices goes down, I buy more stock market in taxable. When the stock market goes up, I buy more fixed income in tax deferred.
I just re-balance when the allocation strays too far from target (more than 5%). This allows me to get a fair return on investment, but not the maximum or optimum income. My no stress, sleep at night, safe allocation is 50%, since I have enough savings, only need to survive the inflation.
One should not invest more than 4% of their savings in any one stock. If a single stock goes up drastically one can just sell the excess and keep the base investment, if they believe in the stock (just skim off excess).
With only 50% in the stock market and no need to touch that money in the next 10 years, there is no point in getting into a panic over the market.
The news pundits are constantly stirring up fear and panic, such as the gold bugs:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/death-en ... 41464.html
and
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rich- ... 06220.html
[link format fixed by admin LadyGeek]
- William Million
- Posts: 1132
- Joined: Wed May 05, 2010 4:41 am
- Location: A Deep Mountain
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
All makes sense except I believe equities first in Roth. They'll ultimately have the biggest gains.wwhan wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 12:28 pm Looking at the possibilities and peoples experiences, confirms my personal strategy of approximately 50% fixed income (currently CDs and Treasuries) & 50% in broad stock market (mostly VTI, index 500 and an small allocation to international stock mkt).
My taxable account has more in fixed income, but as the stock market prices goes down, I buy more stock market in taxable. When the stock market goes up, I buy more fixed income in tax deferred.
I just re-balance when the allocation strays too far from target (more than 5%). This allows me to get a fair return on investment, but not the maximum or optimum income. My no stress, sleep at night, safe allocation is 50%, since I have enough savings, only need to survive the inflation.
One should not invest more than 4% of their savings in any one stock. If a single stock goes up drastically one can just sell the excess and keep the base investment, if they believe in the stock (just skim off excess).
With only 50% in the stock market and no need to touch that money in the next 10 years, there is no point in getting into a panic over the market.
The news pundits are constantly stirring up fear and panic, such as the gold bugs:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/death-en ... 41464.html
and
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rich- ... 06220.html
[link format fixed by admin LadyGeek]
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Might make sense to keep equities in taxable, hold till death, get the step up. And use the Roth for investments that are less tax efficient in taxable accounts.William Million wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:44 amAll makes sense except I believe equities first in Roth. They'll ultimately have the biggest gains.wwhan wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 12:28 pm Looking at the possibilities and peoples experiences, confirms my personal strategy of approximately 50% fixed income (currently CDs and Treasuries) & 50% in broad stock market (mostly VTI, index 500 and an small allocation to international stock mkt).
My taxable account has more in fixed income, but as the stock market prices goes down, I buy more stock market in taxable. When the stock market goes up, I buy more fixed income in tax deferred.
I just re-balance when the allocation strays too far from target (more than 5%). This allows me to get a fair return on investment, but not the maximum or optimum income. My no stress, sleep at night, safe allocation is 50%, since I have enough savings, only need to survive the inflation.
One should not invest more than 4% of their savings in any one stock. If a single stock goes up drastically one can just sell the excess and keep the base investment, if they believe in the stock (just skim off excess).
With only 50% in the stock market and no need to touch that money in the next 10 years, there is no point in getting into a panic over the market.
The news pundits are constantly stirring up fear and panic, such as the gold bugs:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/death-en ... 41464.html
and
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rich- ... 06220.html
[link format fixed by admin LadyGeek]
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Except that equities will also have the biggest losses, right? So equities in Roth when they are having biggest gains, but not in Roth when they are having the biggest losses. [Unnecessary comment removed by admin LadyGeek]William Million wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:44 amAll makes sense except I believe equities first in Roth. They'll ultimately have the biggest gains.
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Equities only have the biggest losses, if one sells when the price is down. It is best to wait till prices are high again to sell stock, even if it a takes a long time.livesoft wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:19 amExcept that equities will also have the biggest losses, right? So equities in Roth when they are having biggest gains, but not in Roth when they are having the biggest losses. [Unnecessary comment removed by admin LadyGeek]William Million wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:44 amAll makes sense except I believe equities first in Roth. They'll ultimately have the biggest gains.
- William Million
- Posts: 1132
- Joined: Wed May 05, 2010 4:41 am
- Location: A Deep Mountain
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
You're right but my wife would not get the step up.Leesbro63 wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:03 amMight make sense to keep equities in taxable, hold till death, get the step up. And use the Roth for investments that are less tax efficient in taxable accounts.William Million wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:44 amAll makes sense except I believe equities first in Roth. They'll ultimately have the biggest gains.wwhan wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 12:28 pm Looking at the possibilities and peoples experiences, confirms my personal strategy of approximately 50% fixed income (currently CDs and Treasuries) & 50% in broad stock market (mostly VTI, index 500 and an small allocation to international stock mkt).
My taxable account has more in fixed income, but as the stock market prices goes down, I buy more stock market in taxable. When the stock market goes up, I buy more fixed income in tax deferred.
I just re-balance when the allocation strays too far from target (more than 5%). This allows me to get a fair return on investment, but not the maximum or optimum income. My no stress, sleep at night, safe allocation is 50%, since I have enough savings, only need to survive the inflation.
One should not invest more than 4% of their savings in any one stock. If a single stock goes up drastically one can just sell the excess and keep the base investment, if they believe in the stock (just skim off excess).
With only 50% in the stock market and no need to touch that money in the next 10 years, there is no point in getting into a panic over the market.
The news pundits are constantly stirring up fear and panic, such as the gold bugs:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/death-en ... 41464.html
and
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/rich- ... 06220.html
[link format fixed by admin LadyGeek]
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
I was getting jittery again but I think it’s just my foot neuropathy.
Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
I was getting jittery again but I think it’s just my foot neuropathy.