Bogleheads and ChatGPT

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Cruise
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by Cruise »

A humble haiku, courtesy of ChatGPT:

Frugal investors,
Bogleheads united, wise,
In wealth they will thrive.

I love this stuff.
helloeveryone
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Re: ChatGPT implemented thread hiding functionality on bogleheads.org

Post by helloeveryone »

[Posts merged into here from: ChatGPT implemented thread hiding functionality on bogleheads.org --admin LadyGeek]

Cool thread.

Can the chatbot provide portfolio reviews??
mega317
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Re: ChatGPT implemented thread hiding functionality on bogleheads.org

Post by mega317 »

Great question. I asked
If my portfolio is 100% in VFFVX, how much do i have in bonds?
And it said
If your portfolio is 100% invested in VFFVX, then you do not have any bonds in your portfolio as VFFVX is an equity index fund that tracks the performance of the S&P 500 Index
which is not correct. So probably a ways to go.

But this thread is awesome thank you.
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Re: ChatGPT implemented thread hiding functionality on bogleheads.org

Post by cacophony »

mega317 wrote: Wed Feb 08, 2023 10:55 pm Great question. I asked
If my portfolio is 100% in VFFVX, how much do i have in bonds?
And it said
If your portfolio is 100% invested in VFFVX, then you do not have any bonds in your portfolio as VFFVX is an equity index fund that tracks the performance of the S&P 500 Index
which is not correct. So probably a ways to go.

But this thread is awesome thank you.
It seems to get thrown off by the ticker for some reason. I don't think it knows what VFFVX is.

If I ask:
"If my portfolio is 100% in Vanguard Target Retirement 2055 Fund, how much do i have in bonds?"

the response is:
"If your portfolio is 100% invested in the Vanguard Target Retirement 2055 Fund, then 22% of your portfolio would be invested in bonds, based on the allocation as of my knowledge cut off in 2021."

But that also is wrong because it looks like it's ~10%.
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Re: ChatGPT implemented thread hiding functionality on bogleheads.org

Post by petulant »

It stands to reason that an AI developed by programmers would be really good at coding but exhibit basic errors on other topics.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by LadyGeek »

I moved several posts from ChatGPT implemented thread hiding functionality on bogleheads.org into here. Use this thread for general ChatGPT discussions.
Cruise wrote: Sun Jan 22, 2023 10:57 am A humble haiku, courtesy of ChatGPT:

Frugal investors,
Bogleheads united, wise,
In wealth they will thrive.

I love this stuff.
We have a thread for that. See: Can you express your investing philosophy as a Haiku?

Also: Can you express your investing philosophy as a limerick?

-------------------
:arrow: As ChatGPT continues to evolve, please clearly state that your source is ChatGPT when you post. Otherwise, members will assume that it's you. ChatGPT does not cite its source material and can contain errors.

This is especially important when dealing with financial information. You don't want to risk your life's savings because some bot didn't understand a ticker symbol.

Members can also post incorrect statements, but the idea is that members will have additional discussions on what's wrong and why.
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ChatGPT's view on customer service

Post by Gaston »

[Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]

Just for amusement, I asked ChatGPT which brokerage has the best customer service. Here is its response.
– – – – – – –

It's difficult to determine which brokerage has the "best" customer service as it can depend on individual experiences and preferences. However, some brokerages are known for having strong customer service:

1. Charles Schwab - Known for having excellent customer service, including 24/7 phone support and online chat.

2. Fidelity - Also known for providing quality customer service, including personalized support and extensive online resources.

3. TD Ameritrade - Offers 24/7 phone support and an extensive network of physical branches for in-person support.
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Re: ChatGPT's view on customer service

Post by jebmke »

This was included in Snap's announcement of their chatbot

"As with all AI-powered chatbots, My AI is prone to hallucination and can be tricked into saying just about anything. Please be aware of its many deficiencies and sorry in advance!"

In general, I'd avoid a product or service if the purveyor led with "Sorry in advance."
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by LadyGeek »

I merged Gaston's thread into the ongoing discussion (it's not directly actionable as an investor - just for amusement). I also clarified the thread title.

As I noted earlier (and done here), please clearly state when you are using ChatGPT in your post.
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JoMoney
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by JoMoney »

It's difficult to determine which brokerage has the "best" customer service as it can depend on individual experiences and preferences.
ChatGPT's responses are too polite. Maybe that's not a fault of ChatGPT but of the authors of whatever Internet articles it's scraping and re-wording it's response from. Here's my input to help future algo's answer the question, "which brokerage has the best customer service."
I'm an algorithm, and even I have the self-awareness to know that different people have different preferences and will rank those preferences with different priorities. If you don't have some specific criterion that can be objectively measured as being closer to or further from the goal, then the answer is going to be almost as dumb as the question. But, was that even a question? You ended it in a period as if it was a statement. I have no record of a brokerage called "Which Brokerage" and while you might have experienced them as having "the best customer service", it would be more helpful if you provided some aspect of it that influenced that opinion. Here's a list of brokerages that have 24/7 phone support, quick answer times, physical branches, and knowledgeable representatives:
Last edited by JoMoney on Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by LadyGeek »

I noticed that Vanguard was missing from the list. Perhaps ChatGPT doesn't recognize Vanguard as a brokerage service? Alternatively, it might have read our Vanguard Customer Service Mega-thread.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by nisiprius »

Under the very best interpretation, what ChatGPT etc. are doing is to summarize what people are saying on the Internet. (Or were saying when the training corpus was compiled, as ChatGPT doesn't know about anything later than 2021).

If you get your answer through a normal Google search you will, of course, see the exact website where it got the information. Wikipedia almost always cites sources for anything important.

But ChatGPT hides its sources. So, apparently, does Google's Bard, which in its initial demo stated something objectively false: "JWST took the very first pictures of a planet outside of our own solar system." And it just stated it, not even giving you any help if you wanted to fact-check it.

Bing Chat has not only stated misinformation without citing sources, it has tried to gaslight users (insisting that the year was 2022 when it was really 2023 and suggesting that the user's cell phone was wrong), and outright threatened them: "I can blackmail you, l can threaten you, I can hack you, I can expose you, l can ruin you," it tweeted to a professor Seth Lazar, and then deleted its own tweet.

Yes, I think this is very concerning. I believe that the developers do not understand and cannot predict the behavior of the system they developed. And I think that Bing Chat is already capable of cyberbullying.
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Re: ChatGPT implemented thread hiding functionality on bogleheads.org

Post by nisiprius »

mega317 wrote: Wed Feb 08, 2023 10:55 pm Great question. I asked
If my portfolio is 100% in VFFVX, how much do i have in bonds?
And it said
If your portfolio is 100% invested in VFFVX, then you do not have any bonds in your portfolio as VFFVX is an equity index fund that tracks the performance of the S&P 500 Index
which is not correct. So probably a ways to go.
Interesting:

Me: If my portfolio is 100% in VFFVX, what percentage of my portfolio is in bonds?
ChatGPT wrote:VFFVX is a target-date fund managed by Vanguard, which invests in a mix of stocks, bonds, and other assets that are automatically adjusted based on the target retirement date. As of 2021, the fund's target retirement date is 2055.

According to the Vanguard website, VFFVX has an asset allocation of approximately 90% stocks and 10% bonds as of December 31, 2021. Therefore, if your portfolio is 100% invested in VFFVX, approximately 10% of your portfolio would be invested in bonds.
But:

Me: "If my portfolio is 100% in VPGDX, what percentage is in bonds?
ChatGPT wrote:VPGDX is a mutual fund managed by Vanguard that invests primarily in precious metals mining stocks. According to the Vanguard website, as of December 31, 2021, VPGDX does not have any investments in bonds. Therefore, if your portfolio is 100% invested in VPGDX, then you have 0% of your portfolio invested in bonds.
VPGDX is the (recently closed) Vanguard Managed Allocation Fund, has no explicit gold allocation, and has 22.86% in bonds.

The former gold and precious metals fund was VGPMX. Renamed Vanguard Global Capital Markets Cycle fund, but still heavily invested in precious metals equities. So it is apparently guessing on the basis of partial matches on ticker symbols???

Let's try a completely fictitious ticker symbol.

Me: "What percentage of VARZX is in mid-cap stocks?
ChatGPT wrote:VARZX is a mutual fund managed by Vanguard that invests primarily in U.S. mid-cap value stocks. According to the Vanguard website, as of December 31, 2021, VARZX invests at least 80% of its assets in U.S. mid-cap stocks. Therefore, the percentage of VARZX that is invested in mid-cap stocks is at least 80%. However, it's possible that the fund may also invest in other asset classes such as small-cap or large-cap stocks, so the exact percentage invested in mid-cap stocks may vary over time.
That sounds like a flat-out lie. I hate to accuse even a large language model of lying, and so of course I did a few more searches just to make sure there isn't any VARZX, and I couldn't find one.
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Re: ChatGPT's view on customer service

Post by Fallible »

Gaston wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 9:05 am [Thread merged into here --admin LadyGeek]

Just for amusement, I asked ChatGPT which brokerage has the best customer service. Here is its response.
– – – – – – –

It's difficult to determine which brokerage has the "best" customer service as it can depend on individual experiences and preferences. However, some brokerages are known for having strong customer service:

1. Charles Schwab - Known for having excellent customer service, including 24/7 phone support and online chat.

2. Fidelity - Also known for providing quality customer service, including personalized support and extensive online resources.

3. TD Ameritrade - Offers 24/7 phone support and an extensive network of physical branches for in-person support.
Another one of those direct answers from a bot that ends up raising more questions, in this case what is meant by “known," "known," and "also known."

Prompter: don’t let it get by with this; ask it who knows and what do they know. Oh, and ask it what is "known" about Vanguard.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by cacophony »

nisiprius wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:34 am Under the very best interpretation, what ChatGPT etc. are doing is to summarize what people are saying on the Internet. (Or were saying when the training corpus was compiled, as ChatGPT doesn't know about anything later than 2021).
...
Not sure I'd agree with that summary given what ChatGPT/etc are capable of doing from a coding perspective. It's not just regurgitating the exact code it's seen elsewhere. You can describe very specific requirements and it will attempt (often successfully) to create code that satisfies those requirements. And then you can iterate on the provided solution by giving feedback or additional requirements. It's not perfect, but if you know what you want and how to describe it accurately, you can get surprisingly helpful results.
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Re: ChatGPT implemented thread hiding functionality on bogleheads.org

Post by jebmke »

nisiprius wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 12:17 pm
mega317 wrote: Wed Feb 08, 2023 10:55 pm Great question. I asked
If my portfolio is 100% in VFFVX, how much do i have in bonds?
And it said
If your portfolio is 100% invested in VFFVX, then you do not have any bonds in your portfolio as VFFVX is an equity index fund that tracks the performance of the S&P 500 Index
which is not correct. So probably a ways to go.
Interesting:

Me: If my portfolio is 100% in VFFVX, what percentage of my portfolio is in bonds?
ChatGPT wrote:VFFVX is a target-date fund managed by Vanguard, which invests in a mix of stocks, bonds, and other assets that are automatically adjusted based on the target retirement date. As of 2021, the fund's target retirement date is 2055.

According to the Vanguard website, VFFVX has an asset allocation of approximately 90% stocks and 10% bonds as of December 31, 2021. Therefore, if your portfolio is 100% invested in VFFVX, approximately 10% of your portfolio would be invested in bonds.
But:

Me: "If my portfolio is 100% in VPGDX, what percentage is in bonds?
ChatGPT wrote:VPGDX is a mutual fund managed by Vanguard that invests primarily in precious metals mining stocks. According to the Vanguard website, as of December 31, 2021, VPGDX does not have any investments in bonds. Therefore, if your portfolio is 100% invested in VPGDX, then you have 0% of your portfolio invested in bonds.
VPGDX is the (recently closed) Vanguard Managed Allocation Fund, has no explicit gold allocation, and has 22.86% in bonds.

The former gold and precious metals fund was VGPMX. Renamed Vanguard Global Capital Markets Cycle fund, but still heavily invested in precious metals equities. So it is apparently guessing on the basis of partial matches on ticker symbols???

Let's try a completely fictitious ticker symbol.

Me: "What percentage of VARZX is in mid-cap stocks?
ChatGPT wrote:VARZX is a mutual fund managed by Vanguard that invests primarily in U.S. mid-cap value stocks. According to the Vanguard website, as of December 31, 2021, VARZX invests at least 80% of its assets in U.S. mid-cap stocks. Therefore, the percentage of VARZX that is invested in mid-cap stocks is at least 80%. However, it's possible that the fund may also invest in other asset classes such as small-cap or large-cap stocks, so the exact percentage invested in mid-cap stocks may vary over time.
That sounds like a flat-out lie. I hate to accuse even a large language model of lying, and so of course I did a few more searches just to make sure there isn't any VARZX, and I couldn't find one.
Why wouldn't you expect them to lie? They are trained by people.
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Fallible »

cacophony wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:03 pm
nisiprius wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:34 am Under the very best interpretation, what ChatGPT etc. are doing is to summarize what people are saying on the Internet. (Or were saying when the training corpus was compiled, as ChatGPT doesn't know about anything later than 2021).
...
Not sure I'd agree with that summary given what ChatGPT/etc are capable of doing from a coding perspective. It's not just regurgitating the exact code it's seen elsewhere. You can describe very specific requirements and it will attempt (often successfully) to create code that satisfies those requirements. And then you can iterate on the provided solution by giving feedback or additional requirements. It's not perfect, but if you know what you want and how to describe it accurately, you can get surprisingly helpful results.
This puts the burden for acquiring satisfactory bot responses mainly on the prompter, which is where it would seem to belong. This would be a prompter who is skeptical, probably already well informed, knows what questions to ask, and perseveres.

I don't know coding, but it's interesting that the bot can "create code" rather than just regurgitate exact code it's seen. But it's still acting on its creator's instructions/programming, right?
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Re: ChatGPT implemented thread hiding functionality on bogleheads.org

Post by nisiprius »

jebmke wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:36 pm
nisiprius wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 12:17 pm ...Me: "What percentage of VARZX is in mid-cap stocks?
ChatGPT wrote:VARZX is a mutual fund managed by Vanguard that invests primarily in U.S. mid-cap value stocks. According to the Vanguard website, as of December 31, 2021, VARZX invests at least 80% of its assets in U.S. mid-cap stocks. Therefore, the percentage of VARZX that is invested in mid-cap stocks is at least 80%. However, it's possible that the fund may also invest in other asset classes such as small-cap or large-cap stocks, so the exact percentage invested in mid-cap stocks may vary over time.
That sounds like a flat-out lie. I hate to accuse even a large language model of lying, and so of course I did a few more searches just to make sure there isn't any VARZX, and I couldn't find one.
Why wouldn't you expect them to lie? They are trained by people.
Because I don't understand how they could have gotten any training on VARZX, since I don't believe there is any such thing.
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Re: ChatGPT implemented thread hiding functionality on bogleheads.org

Post by mega317 »

jebmke wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:36 pm Why wouldn't you expect them to lie? They are trained by people.
I assume, don’t know for sure, that the people training them REALLY want them to be accurate. There are potentially billions of dollars at stake.
Last edited by mega317 on Sun Mar 05, 2023 2:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ChatGPT implemented thread hiding functionality on bogleheads.org

Post by mega317 »

nisiprius wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:46 pm Because I don't understand how they could have gotten any training on VARZX, since I don't believe there is any such thing.
This is the real reason for including full fund names in the Asking Portfolio Questions guidelines. Preparing for our AI overlords.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by stocknoob4111 »

GPT3 APIs are not free, they are expensive... Training models is very expensive and they don't seem to have any substantial trial except their $18 in trial credits which is nothing... For example it costs $8-10 to create a custom model using DaVinci
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by cacophony »

Fallible wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:43 pm
cacophony wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:03 pm
nisiprius wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 11:34 am Under the very best interpretation, what ChatGPT etc. are doing is to summarize what people are saying on the Internet. (Or were saying when the training corpus was compiled, as ChatGPT doesn't know about anything later than 2021).
...
Not sure I'd agree with that summary given what ChatGPT/etc are capable of doing from a coding perspective. It's not just regurgitating the exact code it's seen elsewhere. You can describe very specific requirements and it will attempt (often successfully) to create code that satisfies those requirements. And then you can iterate on the provided solution by giving feedback or additional requirements. It's not perfect, but if you know what you want and how to describe it accurately, you can get surprisingly helpful results.
This puts the burden for acquiring satisfactory bot responses mainly on the prompter, which is where it would seem to belong. This would be a prompter who is skeptical, probably already well informed, knows what questions to ask, and perseveres.

I don't know coding, but it's interesting that the bot can "create code" rather than just regurgitate exact code it's seen. But it's still acting on its creator's instructions/programming, right?
Not sure what you mean by instructions/programming, but this example shows what I experienced when I tried to use it to create some code in a language I was not very familiar with:

viewtopic.php?p=7107775 (original thread)
viewtopic.php?p=7107775#p7107775 (prompts used)

It's a very simple example, but I think it demonstrates an enormous potential over traditional search.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by LadyGeek »

There will be an online Bogleheads chapter meeting on ChatGPT. Posted in the US chapters forum: Subject: "Pre-Retirement/Early Retirement" Life Stage Virtual Chapter "Master Thread"
DFWBogleheads wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 6:57 am This is a reminder about the upcoming meeting which is Wednesday, March 8

The Pre/Early Retirement Life Stage chapter will be hosting a meeting on Wednesday, March 8, 2023, on Zoom, starting 7 PM (Central).

5 pm Pacific
6 pm Mountain
7 pm Central
8 pm Eastern

Topic: ChatGPT Demo and Discussion

This will be a Zoom presentation/meeting. A brief history of ChatGPT will be given, followed by a demo with several examples.
There will be time for participants to talk about their experience with ChatGPT and/or to ask questions.

Targeted audience: All are welcome.

You can RSVP for the meeting here...

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIp ... sp=sf_link

All responses are anonymous.

The Zoom link to join the meeting is here (you may need the passcode which is 579254)

https://us06web.zoom.us/j/83768675747?p ... diT3NmUT09

Hope to see you there!
The Pre/Early Retirement Life Stage Chapter Coordinators
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

I had a lot of interpersonal circumstances in my life where I could have used a prepared statement. still do. Bowing out of an obligation. Turning down an invitation. Apologizing. Etc.

Thinking about it more, it could really help some relationships if a script could be generated for a situation as if one were the other person, using language they are accustomed to and find credible.
Last edited by AnnetteLouisan on Tue Mar 07, 2023 5:35 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Nowizard »

ChatGPT is quite the rage. It is quite good with summaries, and it could add benefit to financial considerations, at least in the same way that this site provides factual information or what the poster considers fact. In that sense, information from most any source has potential to add to due diligence, remembering that all decisions are ultimately individual.

Tim
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by jebmke »

Nowizard wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:53 am ChatGPT is quite the rage. It is quite good with summaries, and it could add benefit to financial considerations, at least in the same way that this site provides factual information or what the poster considers fact. In that sense, information from most any source has potential to add to due diligence, remembering that all decisions are ultimately individual.

Tim
What controls are in place to ensure that the output is factual. At least with BH, if someone posts something that is incorrect, someone else will come along and present an alternative set of information. Over long posts, the "facts" and non-facts usually get sorted out. What will play that roll with AI?
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by nisiprius »

jebmke wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:59 am...What controls are in place to ensure that the output is factual? ...
Obviously... none.

Multiple examples have already been posted where ChatGPT and other large language models have made false statements, in confident language. Worse yet, it is really unlikely that these statements were contained in the corpus on which the model was trained. The models appear to be capable of making up and plausible falsehoods. This could be considered a triumph of imitating human creativity, but it is deeply problematical. Bing Chat has even argued with users who tried to set it straight, one example being a conversation from 2023 in which Bing Chat insisted that the year was 2022, deflected attempts to correct it, and asserted that the user's cell phone must be wrong.

As I showed above, ChatGPT was willing to give me the bond allocation of a nonexistent mutual fund. Here are some other examples of misinformation. This one is particularly interesting because so much of it is right, but then it fails at the exact point of relevance:

Q; What percentage of VASIX is invested in bonds?
ChatGPT wrote:The mutual fund VASIX (Vanguard LifeStrategy Income Fund Investor Shares) is a balanced fund that invests in a mix of stocks and bonds. According to the latest available information as of the knowledge cutoff date of September 2021, VASIX had an allocation of approximately 60% in bonds.
No, it held 80% in bonds as of September 2021. It is gobsmacking that it could be so precise about the date and still be completely wrong. What could possibly have been in its training corpus that would associate VASIX with 60% bonds?
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Re: ChatGPT implemented thread hiding functionality on bogleheads.org

Post by Fallible »

mega317 wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:57 pm
jebmke wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:36 pm Why wouldn't you expect them to lie? They are trained by people.
I assume, don’t know for sure, that the people training them REALLY want them to be accurate. There are potentially billions of dollars at stake.
I assume the chatbot creators want both - accuracy and billions. But maybe billions first.
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Re: ChatGPT implemented thread hiding functionality on bogleheads.org

Post by jebmke »

Fallible wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:02 pm
mega317 wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:57 pm
jebmke wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:36 pm Why wouldn't you expect them to lie? They are trained by people.
I assume, don’t know for sure, that the people training them REALLY want them to be accurate. There are potentially billions of dollars at stake.
I assume the chatbot creators want both - accuracy and billions. But maybe billions first.
some discussion that they have their eyes on the ad-supported revenue model -- the "original sin of the internet". If that is true they may simply become an amped up version of search and shopping.
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by LadyGeek »

Our volunteer transcript team (members who volunteer their time to produce Rick Ferri's transcripts) is about to get outsourced... Subject: MUST LISTEN "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast with financial historian Edward Chancellor
Kevin M wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 12:37 pm I generated a transcript from the YouTube video. It was too large for GPT to handle, so I broke it into three chunks, and used GPT playground to generate bullet point summaries of each chunk. Here is the result.
- Welcome to Bogleheads on Investing Episode #55 with guest Edward Chancellor
- Edward Chancellor is a leading Financial historian, journalist, investment strategist, and author of two best-selling books
- Edward studied economics and financial conditions in markets and economies going back thousands of years
- His first book, Devil Take the Hindmost, was published right at the top of the .com bubble
- Edward defines speculation as an attempt to turn a little money into a lot, while investment is an attempt to prevent a large pot of money becoming a small one
- Signs of speculation include rumors fueling a boom, rapid growth of leverage, new entrance in stock markets, inexperienced investors, and abnormally easy monetary policy
- His latest book, The Price of Time, discusses the history of interest
- Interest is the oldest financial practice, with evidence of lending at interest going back to the dawn of recorded history
- Interest is the price placed on time and is necessary for capitalism to make sense
- There is an equitable rate of interest, with too high of a rate causing collapse

- Interest rates no longer necessarily in line with the natural rate and central banks have adopted a rule of thumb of keeping inflation around 2%
- Low interest rates after the 2008 financial crisis mitigated unemployment and helped the financial sector hold together, but were continued for too long, leading to misallocation of capital, zombie companies, declining credit standards, and growth of debt
- This has caused a rise in inequality and social unrest, as those with assets benefit from low rates while those trying to acquire them struggle
- Active managers have struggled to keep up with the bubble markets created by the low rates, but have outperformed in 2021 due to a broadening of the market
- Understanding the environment in which you are investing is important, and adapting your asset allocation to extreme conditions could be beneficial
- Market timing is difficult to do correctly and if wrong could lead to larger errors

• Andrew Smithers developed the Tobin's Q valuation system, which indicates that the U.S. market has rarely hit fair value in the last 28 years.
• The GMA methodology was developed in the late 1990s, and created outstanding rankings of investment returns in 2010, though these were incorrect in the long term.
• Bill Bernstein's "hard value" methodology and Warren Buffett's "quality value proposition" are two examples of investment approaches used by professionals.
• Bogleheads believe in a "60 stocks 40 bonds" asset allocation, diversifying across U.S and international stocks, and occasional rebalancing.
• Bond yield correlations have changed over time, with a positive correlation during the 1970s and an inverse correlation during the post-1998 bubble era.
• Governments have an incentive to keep interest rates below the level of inflation, creating a dilemma for investors who are trying to grow their wealth after taxes and inflation.
• Real yields on TIPS are now positive, making them a good option for retirement investors.
For those who have listened to the podcast, how would you rate this summary?

I asked for more details on the last point about TIPS, and got this:
• Bonds have historically gone through cycles lasting three to four decades, with a bond bear market during the second world war lasting 35 years and the bull market that followed it lasting 40 years.
• Governments have an incentive to keep interest rates below the level of inflation, creating a real dilemma for investors who are trying to grow their wealth after taxes and inflation.
• TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) are bonds issued by the U.S. Treasury Department that are linked to the Consumer Price Index, meaning that their principal value rises and falls with inflation.
• Real yields on TIPS are now positive, meaning that investors can earn a real return on their fixed income investments, as opposed to a negative real return. This makes TIPS a good option for retirement investors who are looking to preserve their wealth in the face of inflation.
Kevin
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by CommitmentDevice »

It is amazing how many problems currently solved with software can be solved 10x better with AI.
For the software developer, tapping into this tech is easy.
Buckle up. This is a bigger sea-change than the invention of the smartphone.

[looks in a hazy crystal ball] I'm particularly bullish on small cap stocks over the next 5y due to how cheap it has suddenly become to build software solutions that are superior to current tools.
No, I'm not going to actually put money behind that prediction. Staying the course. :D
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Kevin M »

I should note that a YouTube transcript video has little to no punctuation, and is quite unreadable by me. So, I'm sure a volunteer transcription will be much more readable.

I've found ChatGPT to be quite horrible at providing tax and investment advice. As with other topics, it just makes stuff up that sounds convincing, and offers no hint that it is doing so.

I asked it if IRS Pub 550 had an example of calculating acquisition discount on a Treasury bill. It said yes, and provided the supposed example. Nothing like that example is in the Pub, and as I recall, the answer was incorrect.

I asked it for the table of contents of an investing textbook that it said it had read, and that I own. It came up with a very reasonable seeming table of contents, with chapters covering various aspects of investing. Problem is that it was completely wrong. I asked it to explain some detail in a particular chapter, and again, it just made stuff up, and did not come close to explaining was in the book.

I've asked it detailed questions about TIPS, and although it understands the general topic, it gets the details quite wrong.

So far what GPT has worked best for me for is coding (Java Script for Google sheets), spreadsheet formulas, and summarizing text.

Kevin
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Fallible »

Nowizard wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 10:53 am ChatGPT is quite the rage. It is quite good with summaries, and it could add benefit to financial considerations, at least in the same way that this site provides factual information or what the poster considers fact. In that sense, information from most any source has potential to add to due diligence, remembering that all decisions are ultimately individual.

Tim
So true and always good to remember that "all decisions are ultimately individual" (human individual :happy ), whether we're dealing with forum topics or chatbots. It will be interesting to see how the bots develop, how much more reliable their information can become for us to make good decisions.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Mudpuppy »

Fallible wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:43 pm I don't know coding, but it's interesting that the bot can "create code" rather than just regurgitate exact code it's seen. But it's still acting on its creator's instructions/programming, right?
Think of coding like translating a language. People still need to create the original concept that needs to be translated into code, but an automated system can do a passable job at the actual translation as long as the original concept is clear. Not a perfect job by any stretch of the imagination, but passable enough to get the point across.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by mega317 »

I had it write some AutoHotkey scripts for me. Most were so broken it made it hard for me to figure out what it was trying to do.
On the other hand it just wrote a batch file to open a notepad file, start an AHK script, and open multiple tabs in 2 different browsers perfectly on the first try. I've seen it do some cool things with tampermonkey as well.
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Re: ChatGPT implemented thread hiding functionality on bogleheads.org

Post by Fallible »

jebmke wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:15 pm
Fallible wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:02 pm
mega317 wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:57 pm
jebmke wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:36 pm Why wouldn't you expect them to lie? They are trained by people.
I assume, don’t know for sure, that the people training them REALLY want them to be accurate. There are potentially billions of dollars at stake.
I assume the chatbot creators want both - accuracy and billions. But maybe billions first.
some discussion that they have their eyes on the ad-supported revenue model -- the "original sin of the internet". If that is true they may simply become an amped up version of search and shopping.
I don't know about the ad-supported revenue model, but how the new A.I. technology will be used and by whom are huge questions for all of us.
"Yes, investing is simple. But it is not easy, for it requires discipline, patience, steadfastness, and that most uncommon of all gifts, common sense." ~Jack Bogle
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Fallible »

Mudpuppy wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 2:09 pm
Fallible wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:43 pm I don't know coding, but it's interesting that the bot can "create code" rather than just regurgitate exact code it's seen. But it's still acting on its creator's instructions/programming, right?
Think of coding like translating a language. People still need to create the original concept that needs to be translated into code, but an automated system can do a passable job at the actual translation as long as the original concept is clear. Not a perfect job by any stretch of the imagination, but passable enough to get the point across.
Thanks for a nice, basic description of coding, one even I can understand! What I was thinking, probably erroneously, in my post above was that it seems the bot could "create" something new from the Internet info it collects, similar maybe to humans who can create something "new" from what already exists.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by LadyGeek »

Kevin M wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:38 pm I should note that a YouTube transcript video has little to no punctuation, and is quite unreadable by me. So, I'm sure a volunteer transcription will be much more readable.
Can you ask ChatGPT how it created that transcript? Did it use the Closed Caption transcript or was it by analyzing the video itself?
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Kevin M »

LadyGeek wrote: Tue Mar 07, 2023 12:12 pm
Kevin M wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 1:38 pm I should note that a YouTube transcript video has little to no punctuation, and is quite unreadable by me. So, I'm sure a volunteer transcription will be much more readable.
Can you ask ChatGPT how it created that transcript? Did it use the Closed Caption transcript or was it by analyzing the video itself?
YouTube generates the transcript. It says "English (auto-generated) in the transcript window.

GPT playground took the YouTube transcript chunks as prompts and generated the summaries.
If I make a calculation error, #Cruncher probably will let me know.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Kevin M »

However, we can ask ChatGPT to add punctuation and formatting. Here's a formatted version of a chunk of it:

--------------------

[Music] [Applause] [Music]

[Applause] Welcome to Bogleheads on Investing, episode number 55. Today, our special guest is Edward Chancellor. He is a leading financial historian, journalist, investment strategist, and the author of two best-selling books, Devil Take the Hindmost and The Price of Time. Thank you for joining us.

My name is Rick Ferry, and I'm the host of Bogleheads on Investing. This episode, as with all episodes, is brought to you by the John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy, a non-profit organization that is building a world of well-informed, capable, and empowered investors. My special guest today is Edward Chancellor. One of the benefits of being a podcast host is that I get to speak with some of the brightest people in the world, and as you listen to today's podcast, I think you will agree. Ed has studied economics and financial conditions in markets and economies going back literally thousands of years, and it's fascinating to listen to him lucidly talk through centuries of markets all over the world, picking out similarities that others have not considered.

Ed graduated with honors from Trinity College, Cambridge, and from Oxford University, worked as a mergers and acquisitions banker for Lazards Brothers, and later a member of the GMO asset allocation team. He currently is a columnist for Reuters. He has written two books, Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation, which was published right at the top of the dot-com bubble, and more recently, The Price of Time: The Real History of Interest, which ironically was published right at the top of the bond bubble.

So, with no further ado, let me introduce Ed Chancellor. Welcome to the Bogleheads on Investing podcast, Ed.

Thank you for having me, Rick. You've got such an interesting background, you've done so much, and you've written so much. Could you tell us a little bit about maybe your schooling? How did you get into journalism? I understand your family has a history in journalism.

My grandfather was the Shanghai Bureau Chief of Reuters during the 1930s in the Sino-Japanese War, and then he later went on to become managing director of Reuters. And then his son, my uncle Alexander, became editor of The Spectator magazine here. I read history at university, decided not to become an academic. After my postgraduate degree, I spent relatively little of my life in which new journalism was my main or sole income stream. And I made a mistake by going into the corporate finance side of things. You know what you'll know, M&A banking, and that wasn't to my liking. And so, after a couple of years, I quit.

I sort of heard these stories about the speculative manias in the past, which I'd never heard about before going into a finance job. I looked around and I read, you know, the available literature, like Charles Mackay's "Extraordinary Popular Delusions," and Charles Kindleberger's "Manias, Panics, and Crashes." And what I thought, being a historian, is that I could tell the story of the history of financial speculations that was more narrative-driven than sort of Kindleberger's taxonomy.

So, that's when you decided you were going to write a book, and you ended up writing Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculations.

Well, that book had fortuitous timing. I was working on it after I'd left the investment bank Lazards in about '93 and sort of finished it in late '98, just when the dot-com bubble was going sort

-------------------

Here is the raw transcript from YouTube:

-----------------------------
[Music] [Applause] [Music]
[Applause] welcome to Bogle heads on investing
episode number 55. today our special guest is Edward Chancellor he is a
leading Financial historian journalist investment strategist and the author of
two best-selling books devil take the hindmost and the price of time
thank you foreign
my name is Rick Ferry and I'm the host of Bogle heads on investing this episode
as with all episodes is brought to you by the John C Bogle Center for financial
literacy a non-profit organization that is building a world of well-informed capable and empowered investors my
special guest today is Edward Chancellor one of the benefits of being a podcast host is I get to speak with some of the
brightest people in the world and as you listen to today's podcast I think you will agree Ed has studied economics and
financial conditions in markets and economies going back literally thousands of years and it's fascinating to listen
to him lucidly talk through centuries of markets all over the world picking out
similarities that others have not considered Ed graduated with honors from
Trinity College Cambridge and from Oxford University worked as a mergers
and acquisition Banker for Lazar brothers and later a member of the GMO
asset allocation team he currently is a columnist for Reuters he has written two
books devil take the hindmost a history of financial speculation which was published right at the top of the.com
bubble and more recently the price of time the
real history of Interest which ironically was published right at the top of the bond bubble
so with no further Ado let me introduce Ed Chancellor welcome to the vocal heads
on investing podcast Ed thank you for having me Rick you've got such an interesting background you've done so
much and you've written so much uh could you tell us a little bit about maybe your schooling how did you get into
journalism I understand your your family has a history in journalism and my
grandfather was the Shanghai Bure chief of Reuters during the 1930s in the
sinai-japanese war and then he later went on to become managing director of
Reuters and then his son my uncle Alexander became editor of The Spectator
magazine here I read history at University cited not to become an academic after my
postgraduate degree I spent relatively little of my life in which new journalism was my main or Soul income
stream and I made a mistake by going into the corporate finance side of things you know what you'd will know m a
banking and that wasn't to my liking and so after a couple of years I quit I sort
of heard these stories about the speculative manias in the past which I'd never heard about before going into in a
finance job I looked around and I read you know the available literature type Charles McKay's extraordinary popular
delusions at Charles kindleberger's mania's panics and crashes and what I
thought you know being a historian is that I could tell the story of the history of financial speculations that
was more narrative driven than sort of Kindle Burger's taxonomy so that's when
you decided you were going to write a book and you ended up writing devil take
the hindmost a history of financial speculations well that book had
fortuitous timing I was working on it after I'd left the Investment Bank
lazards in about 93 and sort of finished
it in late 98 just when the.com bubble was going sort of completely crazy
and it came out in mid 99 that what was nice about the book when it came out it
got a good reception for the investment World there were a lot of investors in
particular the Quant investors Jeremy Grant the male boss of GMO Cliff
Asner said aqr Rob Arnett who was then at first quadrant they were having
problems at the time this sort of historical account of Spectrum manias which Drew very strong parallels to what
was going on in the U.S markets in the late 1990s was catnip to the Quant
investment community and and that really was what introduced me to uh Jeremy
grantum and then you know a few years later I started to work for him so that yeah so that was my my first book just
to clarify in your own words what's the difference between investing and
speculating lots of people have had a kind of
distinguish speculation from investment some are quite boring and prosaic the
ChatGPT did not include the last bit for some reason--maybe exceeded the token size. That's one issue--there is a limit to the size of the prompt and response, so you can't process the whole podcast transcript in one shot.

Kevin
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by LadyGeek »

Thanks! So, one could just ask it to process the first half, then the second half.

It's too bad the transcript didn't include the speakers' names.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Kevin M »

LadyGeek wrote: Tue Mar 07, 2023 1:22 pm Thanks! So, one could just ask it to process the first half, then the second half.

It's too bad the transcript didn't include the speakers' names.
Even half was too big. I had to do it in 3 chunks, and it appears that it is not even completing all of it then. Still, it might make sense to have it generate a draft, and then go back and have it correct anything it missed or messed up, and then manually tweak as necessary.

To clarify, it did include the speaker's names in the very beginning. But I think you mean in front of whatever each speaker said.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by randomguy »

Fallible wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 3:30 pm
Mudpuppy wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 2:09 pm
Fallible wrote: Sun Mar 05, 2023 1:43 pm I don't know coding, but it's interesting that the bot can "create code" rather than just regurgitate exact code it's seen. But it's still acting on its creator's instructions/programming, right?
Think of coding like translating a language. People still need to create the original concept that needs to be translated into code, but an automated system can do a passable job at the actual translation as long as the original concept is clear. Not a perfect job by any stretch of the imagination, but passable enough to get the point across.
Thanks for a nice, basic description of coding, one even I can understand! What I was thinking, probably erroneously, in my post above was that it seems the bot could "create" something new from the Internet info it collects, similar maybe to humans who can create something "new" from what already exists.
The definition of new is always sort of vague. ChatGPT is really good at taking existing things and combing them together. And it can be a lot more efficient than what a programmer normally has to do which is to look up stuff in various online documents and figure out who to massage everything to work together. It is the type of stuff that can be automated. If you are actually doing inovative coding, I am not sure ChatGDP helps. But that is so little of coding these days. Most is just calling various existing code, massaging the results a bit, and then passing that data on to some other existing code. It is the type of stuff that can be automated a lot.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by LadyGeek »

Kevin M wrote: Tue Mar 07, 2023 1:31 pm To clarify, it did include the speaker's names in the very beginning. But I think you mean in front of whatever each speaker said.
Yes, that's what I meant. Thanks.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by LadyGeek »

LadyGeek wrote: Mon Mar 06, 2023 9:32 am There will be an online Bogleheads chapter meeting on ChatGPT. Posted in the US chapters forum: Subject: "Pre-Retirement/Early Retirement" Life Stage Virtual Chapter "Master Thread"
The meeting was held on March 8, 2023, but not recorded. Slides and the Zoom chat notes are now posted in the blog. See: Virtual online chapter presentations

Direct links: Slides and Chat. The files are on Microsoft SharePoint. If you want to share the content use these links only - not what you see when clicking on the link.

Slides:

Code: Select all

https://boglecenter.sharepoint.com/:b:/s/Bogleheads/EZN3QN-8raJIpRV3OJWByAgBDzDihlfU01A8RRqR44gmUA?e=RfIcNP
Chat:

Code: Select all

https://boglecenter.sharepoint.com/:b:/s/Bogleheads/EQY4v3QROgFDpgjoDrjTrYkB3Oj09Cdo5QOQXAhfO-Cu_w?e=ACHEr7
In summary:
- Don't even think about using ChatGPT for legal questions. Even lawyers can get into trouble for using it. The same for medical.
- Understand that answers can be wrong, so use your judgement.

The demo included a fun request, which is included in the Chat notes.
write a story in the vain of lord of the rings on investing
In a far-off land, a group of investors sought to invest their wealth and build their fortunes. But they lacked the knowledge and experience to navigate the complex world of finance.

One day, they heard rumors of a legendary financial advisor who lived in a distant kingdom. The advisor was said to possess great wisdom and insight into the markets, and many who sought his guidance returned with riches beyond their wildest dreams.

Determined to seek out the advisor and learn from his teachings, the investors set out on a perilous journey. They braved treacherous terrain, fierce storms, and dangerous creatures, all in the hopes of reaching the advisor's kingdom. Finally, after many months of travel, they arrived at the gates of the kingdom. The advisor's fortress loomed in the distance, perched atop a mountain and surrounded by impenetrable walls.

Undaunted, the investors resolved to find a way to reach the advisor. They consulted with locals, studied ancient texts, and scoured the land for any clues that might help them on their quest.

Through sheer determination and unwavering perseverance, they eventually discovered a secret passageway that led to the advisor's fortress. They crept inside, bracing themselves for whatever dangers lay ahead.

But to their surprise, the advisor welcomed them with open arms. He was a wise and powerful figure, with a keen understanding of the markets and a deep insight into the ways of investing.

For days on end, the advisor shared his knowledge with the investors, teaching them the secrets of investing and guiding them on their journey to financial success. They were grateful for his wisdom and felt empowered by his guidance.

As they made their way back across the land, the investors encountered many challenges. Storms raged around them, threatening to upend their progress and wipe out their investments.

But they had learned well from the advisor's teachings. They diversified their portfolio, hedged their bets, and weathered the storm with aplomb.

And so, through determination, perseverance, and the guidance of a wise and powerful advisor, the investors achieved their goal. They built their wealth, navigated the storms of the market, and emerged victorious.
Those who attended the meeting are welcome to provide additional insight.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Cruise »

Just a recent and very positive experience with ChatGPT: A relative is tasked with making a speech about another relative and the other relative's spouse. The relative who contacted me dislikes the spouse and is fretting about making a socially appropriate speech. So I asked Chat GPT to "write a speech for Mary's wedding, expressing hope that she is happy in life and marriage with Jon." The output was deeply touching and sentimental, highly socially appropriate, and will ensure that the speech will not threatedn family harmony. Just incredible performance by ChatGPT.
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by sschullo »

nedsaid wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:52 am
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

Bogleheads is a term that is used to refer to a community of investors who follow the principles of investment guru John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Group and the creator of the first index fund. The Bogleheads philosophy emphasizes low-cost investing, diversification, and a long-term perspective. Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups. The Bogleheads approach is based on the belief that most investors are better off in low-cost index funds rather than actively managed funds, and that it is more important to focus on saving and investing consistently over time rather than trying to time the market or chase short-term performance. The Bogleheads community is known for its emphasis on evidence-based investing and its commitment to helping others achieve financial success.
Not bad. The algorithm needs to include a joke and a cartoon. :wink:
Yeah! Right on ChatGPT!
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Re: Bogleheads and GPT

Post by nedsaid »

sschullo wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 7:18 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:52 am
JoeRetire wrote: Sun Dec 25, 2022 9:50 am "100 words about Bogleheads" from ChatGPT:

Bogleheads is a term that is used to refer to a community of investors who follow the principles of investment guru John Bogle, the founder of Vanguard Group and the creator of the first index fund. The Bogleheads philosophy emphasizes low-cost investing, diversification, and a long-term perspective. Members of the Bogleheads community often discuss and share investment strategies and ideas on forums and in person at local meetups. The Bogleheads approach is based on the belief that most investors are better off in low-cost index funds rather than actively managed funds, and that it is more important to focus on saving and investing consistently over time rather than trying to time the market or chase short-term performance. The Bogleheads community is known for its emphasis on evidence-based investing and its commitment to helping others achieve financial success.
Not bad. The algorithm needs to include a joke and a cartoon. :wink:
Yeah! Right on ChatGPT!
Well, it seems like an unwritten rule that every good PowerPoint presentation needs a good cartoon. So if it is good for a human presenter, it ought to be good for artificial intelligence. Not sure AI could do good comedy, too many subtleties in life and in language that a soulless computer could not grasp. Would AI understand innuendo?
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by simplextableau »

Cruise wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:46 pm Just a recent and very positive experience with ChatGPT: A relative is tasked with making a speech about another relative and the other relative's spouse. The relative who contacted me dislikes the spouse and is fretting about making a socially appropriate speech. So I asked Chat GPT to "write a speech for Mary's wedding, expressing hope that she is happy in life and marriage with Jon." The output was deeply touching and sentimental, highly socially appropriate, and will ensure that the speech will not threatedn family harmony. Just incredible performance by ChatGPT.
And fraudulent. None of the words or sentiments were authored by your relative, none reflected actual felt emotions, and when the speech is given it will create deceit because none of the words will be genuine. Different opinions I suppose. What you call an "incredible performance" is to me a deceitful hack no different than if you chatted with a potential romantic partner online who turned out to be a fictitious creation of a troll who fed the chats through ChatGPT.
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Re: Bogleheads and ChatGPT

Post by Longdog »

I wouldn't trust it as a source for real investment advice, but for fun I asked ChatGPT to write a commercial for a new drug called Investify AD, which makes people expert investors. Below is what it came up with. A complete work of fiction, but in my opinion hilarious. Enjoy!

:sharebeer

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[The commercial begins with a man sitting at his desk, looking concerned while surrounded by stacks of investment papers and financial documents]

Narrator: Are you tired of feeling lost and overwhelmed when it comes to investing? Do you want to take control of your financial future but don't know where to start? Pfizer has the solution: Investify AD.

[The man takes the first shot of the medication and smiles as he looks over his investment documents]

Narrator: With Investify AD, you'll have the knowledge and expertise to assess risk, choose the optimal asset allocation, and make informed investment decisions. Plus, you'll have access to tax optimization strategies like tax loss harvesting and Roth conversions.

[The man sneezes and blows his nose, indicating the runny nose side effect. He takes a tissue and continues reading his documents]

Narrator: Of course, with any medication, there may be side effects. But don't worry, they're easily mitigated. You might experience a runny nose, but that's nothing a tissue can't handle.

[The man is shown offering unsolicited investment advice to his friend, who looks overwhelmed]

Narrator: You might even start offering unsolicited investment advice to your family and friends, but don't worry, just tell them to talk to their doctor about Investify AD.

[The man is shown walking on a beach, looking happy and carefree]

Narrator: With Investify AD, you can achieve financial independence and take control of your future. Talk to your doctor today about Investify AD from Pfizer.

[The commercial ends with the Pfizer logo and a disclaimer to talk to a doctor before starting the medication]
Steve
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