Could this be the beginning of the end [predictability of market direction]
Could this be the beginning of the end [predictability of market direction]
We've seen the markets grow consistently since their inception, but are we now entering a new stage in world development; technology so advanced, AI that is making human work redundant, blockchain... Is there an argument that the future may be so different to the past that we cannot assume markets will move the same way? Could they stagnate for the next 10 years, could they even decline?
I am by no means a conspiracy theorist however I thought this could be an interesting topic to discuss, as a lot rests on the equity markets for a lot of us.
I am by no means a conspiracy theorist however I thought this could be an interesting topic to discuss, as a lot rests on the equity markets for a lot of us.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
Could be. But that's always been the case. Warren Buffett reminds us that he started investing on the day Paris fell during WW2. And that the headline news everyday since has basically been bad. I do agree that our debt-to-GDP and it's outlook does make it seem really different this time.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
I can't worry about these kinds of things. Haven't people been saying this forever? Besides, I don't think it's a very actionable subject. What's the alternative?
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
Human work won't be redundant as we create new jobs. Now, some jobs go away such as the telephone operators.tradez wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:25 am We've seen the markets grow consistently since their inception, but are we now entering a new stage in world development; technology so advanced, AI that is making human work redundant, blockchain... Is there an argument that the future may be so different to the past that we cannot assume markets will move the same way? Could they stagnate for the next 10 years, could they even decline?
I am by no means a conspiracy theorist however I thought this could be an interesting topic to discuss, as a lot rests on the equity markets for a lot of us.
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
No, they haven't. I can't address that directly unless you define, numerically, what you mean by "consistent."We've seen the markets grow consistently since their inception
It could always be the beginning of the end. Ends happen, and all of them have beginnings.
"Could they stagnate for the next 10 years, could they even decline?" Gosh, yes. The US stock market had an average return of -0.99%, i.e. lost money, from 2000-2009. So that's ten years.
From 1966 through 1982 it averaged +6.72% which doesn't sound bad until to realize that included the last period of high inflation, and it had a real return of -0.07%, i.e. it failed to beat inflation. That's seventeen years.
Japan's stock market declined from 1990 to 2008 and still isn't back to even. So that's over thirty years.
The question is whether knowing that this could be "the beginning of the end" is actionable information.
I would add that yes, there is a good case to be made for the idea that the second half of the twentiety century were an anomaly, exceptionally good for the US stock market, and shouldn't be taken as any kind of "normal."
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
I double checked the date of the post to make sure it wasn't 1999 or 2000. It reminded me of the statements made a lot back then.
People have been making these kind of "Things will be different" going forward statements adding flavors of FUD and/or exuberance for decades. Industrial Era is probably when it started actually.
Things are always changing. I know ChatGTP has everyone excited in the news the last few weeks - I assume this is where you are coming from currently.
People have been making these kind of "Things will be different" going forward statements adding flavors of FUD and/or exuberance for decades. Industrial Era is probably when it started actually.
Things are always changing. I know ChatGTP has everyone excited in the news the last few weeks - I assume this is where you are coming from currently.
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
It is a truism the longer into the future you try to predict human societies, including economies and financial systems, the more you are getting into science fiction.
So--oh well?
To the extent this is actionable, I do like broadly-diversified stock index funds for longer investment horizons because I think that is the most robust low-cost approach to trying to track wherever future economies may head. But most robust doesn't mean bulletproof. It is just to me the best idea available in light of the fundamental uncertainties of the future.
So--oh well?
To the extent this is actionable, I do like broadly-diversified stock index funds for longer investment horizons because I think that is the most robust low-cost approach to trying to track wherever future economies may head. But most robust doesn't mean bulletproof. It is just to me the best idea available in light of the fundamental uncertainties of the future.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
If we're near the end I think it is more on the scale of human history as opposed to the next 10 years. AI works very well for a handful of small designed "test tasks" that AI developers like to throw at it. When it screws up, it tends to do so in comically terrible ways to the point that a toddler could do better. Are we on the verge of being able to automate more things than we could 30 years ago? Sure, but this is always true. The only difference is that those tasks are now marginally more cerebral than before. If you're worried about changes tomorrow, remember that voice recognition is probably one of the easiest and most obvious applications for AI technology and we still have the same trash dysfunctional "Press 1 or say pharmacy" "You said <Farmer John>. Farmer John doesn't work here. Goodbye" technology we had 20 years ago.
Every tech bro and their brother now has a startup to "Build AI solutions for XYZ" but at least in my area these are generally cumbersome solutions with miserable sensitivity/specificity that almost invariably simply do...not...work. Like, at all. They're awful. It sounds scary and futuristic, but outside a handful of applications it is more marketing than substance at this point.
I'm personally far more worried about the tech industry collapsing under its own weight than I am about the takeover of AI. Programmers getting paid comical sums to cobble together code they found online and only half-understand to produce solutions that work okay 5% of the time, not at all the rest of the time, cost only moderately less than an employee to keep up and irritate the heck out of everyone who has to rely on them. Its all to keep the short-con going just long enough to trick the big players into paying them to stop existing. It won't spell the end of civilization, but I do think we're going to see corrections at some point. Startup funding will be harder to come by. Some of big tech is basically the new tobacco industry and will be hit with regulations, disdain from the general public, etc. though exactly what that looks like in the markets I can't say.
Long story short, I'm not losing sleep over this.
Every tech bro and their brother now has a startup to "Build AI solutions for XYZ" but at least in my area these are generally cumbersome solutions with miserable sensitivity/specificity that almost invariably simply do...not...work. Like, at all. They're awful. It sounds scary and futuristic, but outside a handful of applications it is more marketing than substance at this point.
I'm personally far more worried about the tech industry collapsing under its own weight than I am about the takeover of AI. Programmers getting paid comical sums to cobble together code they found online and only half-understand to produce solutions that work okay 5% of the time, not at all the rest of the time, cost only moderately less than an employee to keep up and irritate the heck out of everyone who has to rely on them. Its all to keep the short-con going just long enough to trick the big players into paying them to stop existing. It won't spell the end of civilization, but I do think we're going to see corrections at some point. Startup funding will be harder to come by. Some of big tech is basically the new tobacco industry and will be hit with regulations, disdain from the general public, etc. though exactly what that looks like in the markets I can't say.
Long story short, I'm not losing sleep over this.
Last edited by Ollie123 on Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
People will continue to store and exchange wealth. They will continue to need things that make life possible and want things that make life enjoyable. They will continue to organize and devise systems for achieving their goals more efficiently. This has been happening forever and will continue to happen.
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
--T. L. Peacock, Headlong Hall, 1837. The technological marvel is a horse-drawn mail coach.“You will allow,” said Mr Foster, as soon as they were again in motion, “that the wild man of the woods could not transport himself over two hundred miles of forest, with as much facility as one of these vehicles transports you and me through the heart of this cultivated country.”
“I am certain,” said Mr Escot, “that a wild man can travel an immense distance without fatigue; but what is the advantage of locomotion? The wild man is happy in one spot, and there he remains: the civilised man is wretched in every place he happens to be in, and then congratulates himself on being accommodated with a machine, that will whirl him to another, where he will be just as miserable as ever.”
Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen nineteen and six, result happiness; Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds ought and six, result misery.
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
I agree with all this, but I think one possibility that is regrettably consistent with all that is that risk-free real rates of returns will go persistently negative even over long periods of time.homebuyer6426 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:54 am People will continue to store and exchange wealth. They will continue to need things that make life possible and want things that make life enjoyable. They will continue to organize and devise systems for achieving their goals more efficiently. This has been happening forever and will continue to happen.
Meaning there are practical reasons why nominal rates can't stay too much below zero for too long. Those reasons do not really apply to real rates, and under plausible economic assumptions you can get substantial and persistent negative real rates.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
It’s all good. Stop watching the news. You’ll be much happier.
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
The thing i'm concerned about are demographics. We're entering an age where most people in the rich countries of the world will be old (inverted population pyramids). We've never really experienced that before in human history. The only thing we really have to go off of is Japan in recent decades, and they've had a stagnant stock market despite having the benefit of being able to sell products to the relatively young population of the USA. What happens when S. Korea, Taiwan, China, Europe, and Canada all join them in being nations of old people? What happens when the US eventually joins that group? I don't know.
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
Even if more humans will be redundant due to technology, won't the owners (shareholders) of companies that make these technologies stand to benefit?
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
Every End has a Beginning, when it Ends it’s hard to say when it Began however the End may lead to a new Beginning.
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
AI has made promises and has broken them since it was first developed (I know because I actually studied the history as a graduate student). It is getting better, but as before promises will continue to be made and broken.tradez wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:25 am We've seen the markets grow consistently since their inception, but are we now entering a new stage in world development; technology so advanced, AI that is making human work redundant, blockchain... Is there an argument that the future may be so different to the past that we cannot assume markets will move the same way? Could they stagnate for the next 10 years, could they even decline?
I am by no means a conspiracy theorist however I thought this could be an interesting topic to discuss, as a lot rests on the equity markets for a lot of us.
It is no different than the gasoline engine, the cotton gin, the pulley, and all of the inventions that reduced need of manpower; yet, we are still employed doing something else. Jobs can be lost but jobs get created; we just end up with more ability to do things.
This will have hardly anything to do with the markets.
Passive investing: not about making big bucks but making profits. Active investing: not about beating the market but meeting goals. Speculation: not about timing the market but taking profitable risks.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
I'll just continue investing in total world market index funds. I trust the judgement and skills of the powers that be to make me money as their greed knows no bounds.
Taking care of tomorrow while enjoying today.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
Exactly correct.
The best thing I’ve done in retirement is to avoid the cable news channels.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
If that doesn’t do it for you, supplement testosterone. That gives you an irrational sense of well-being.
This time is the same
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
buckle up and enjoy the ride. it's not fun if you already know what the future holds.tradez wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:25 am We've seen the markets grow consistently since their inception, but are we now entering a new stage in world development; technology so advanced, AI that is making human work redundant, blockchain... Is there an argument that the future may be so different to the past that we cannot assume markets will move the same way? Could they stagnate for the next 10 years, could they even decline?
I am by no means a conspiracy theorist however I thought this could be an interesting topic to discuss, as a lot rests on the equity markets for a lot of us.
Time is the ultimate currency.
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
I'm trying to stop going to news websites whose main goal are clicks...there are more of those than you think. I've been thinking about subscriptions to the Atlantic, the Economist, etc...more long-form type news/information.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
No. Technology used to increase productivity is good for economic growth. Economic growth is good for markets. It's also good for people. Fearing otherwise is common, even in academia, but is a fear based on a misunderstanding of how the world works.
Now, markets may still stagnate for 10+ years. But will be despite technology rather than because of it.
JT
Now, markets may still stagnate for 10+ years. But will be despite technology rather than because of it.
JT
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
There will be a need for a bunch of human coders to fix all the AI bugs that pop up.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
AI is going to enable more economic activity for example more content creation, faster processing and interpretation of data, easier to create platforms for people to build communities and marketplaces. Maybe equities don't perfectly capture all this new economic activity but I'm willing to bet they do a better job than most anything else.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
A Bank of England (I think) report forecast technology like ChatGPT replacing 15 million UK jobs in coming years. You're not going to need 15 million new coders fixing bugs.burritoLover wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:53 pm There will be a need for a bunch of human coders to fix all the AI bugs that pop up.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
My library has the Economist on overdrive. I read it Monday mornings. No reason to pay for it. The Atlantic hasn’t been good for a while now. You can try Vanity or the New Yorker. They’re still pretty good.MorgansRun wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:47 pmI'm trying to stop going to news websites whose main goal are clicks...there are more of those than you think. I've been thinking about subscriptions to the Atlantic, the Economist, etc...more long-form type news/information.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
Yes. I think it's inevitable. Ultimately (some economists, at least, believe), markets cannot grow faster than the economies that support them forever. If developed world growth is stuck at 2%, we should probably expect returns on stocks to go towards 1% real, and on bonds, 1% nominal. Assuming inflation is around 1%.tradez wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:25 am We've seen the markets grow consistently since their inception, but are we now entering a new stage in world development; technology so advanced, AI that is making human work redundant, blockchain... Is there an argument that the future may be so different to the past that we cannot assume markets will move the same way? Could they stagnate for the next 10 years, could they even decline?
I am by no means a conspiracy theorist however I thought this could be an interesting topic to discuss, as a lot rests on the equity markets for a lot of us.
On top of which, Machine Learning becomes the brains of organisations, which makes them highly competitive, with no real advantage. So you get 'perfect competition'. Exceptional profits disappear. There are no dividends. No buybacks. Businesses generate exactly enough to maintain perfect competition and pay wages. This has always been the goal of free markets: profit destruction. It's what Buffett and Munger are principally thinking about with their investments.
And, Machine Learning handles more trading, more analysis, ultimately more capital allocation. And because ML systems can continuously improve, markets become *extremely* efficient. So where's the 'risk premium'? Whatever you invest in, so long as you're reasonably diversified, is going to return about the same. And demand for anything that returns more than cash is going to push returns down to levels equivalent to cash. No more boom and bust. Three reasons (imo) it's absolutely inevitable market returns go towards 0-2% over the next 50(?) years. I think markets will need to double or quadruple before that, on multiples expansion at least. And as Bridgewater seem to think, there'll probably a bit more growth from EM before we get there.
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
So there's 30 million jobs in the UK currently - so half of all jobs will be replaced by ChatGPT? lol.Logan Roy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:07 pmA Bank of England (I think) report forecast technology like ChatGPT replacing 15 million UK jobs in coming years. You're not going to need 15 million new coders fixing bugs.burritoLover wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:53 pm There will be a need for a bunch of human coders to fix all the AI bugs that pop up.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
The world is very different from what it was 100 years ago which was very different from 200 years ago.
It will be very different 100 years from now.
My great grandfather was a peasant, grandfather worked in a factory, father had a business, I type on a computer all day producing nothing material whatsoever. My job will become obsolete one day too.
At some point in history Egyptian pyramid builders were all out of work, but the world did not end.
It will be very different 100 years from now.
My great grandfather was a peasant, grandfather worked in a factory, father had a business, I type on a computer all day producing nothing material whatsoever. My job will become obsolete one day too.
At some point in history Egyptian pyramid builders were all out of work, but the world did not end.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
If humans go extinct, what happens to my tax loss carry forward?
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
It will certainly replace you, if your job is proofreading. lmaoburritoLover wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:27 pmSo there's 30 million jobs in the UK currently - so half of all jobs will be replaced by ChatGPT? lol.Logan Roy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:07 pmA Bank of England (I think) report forecast technology like ChatGPT replacing 15 million UK jobs in coming years. You're not going to need 15 million new coders fixing bugs.burritoLover wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:53 pm There will be a need for a bunch of human coders to fix all the AI bugs that pop up.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
I'm curious how you think the highlighted issues are related to markets. Blockchain/crypto is speculative, so we don't know where it might lead; maybe nothing. As human labor becomes less necessary, what makes you think this would adversely affect markets? I don't see how it would. It could adversely affect some sectors and companies, while possibly benefiting others, but I doubt the overall affects will diminish returns.tradez wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:25 am We've seen the markets grow consistently since their inception, but are we now entering a new stage in world development; technology so advanced, AI that is making human work redundant, blockchain... Is there an argument that the future may be so different to the past that we cannot assume markets will move the same way? Could they stagnate for the next 10 years, could they even decline?
I am by no means a conspiracy theorist however I thought this could be an interesting topic to discuss, as a lot rests on the equity markets for a lot of us.
Markets are fundamentally just a massive information processing system. Some sectors and companies might stagnate while others flourish. I'm not nearly so confident to think I can predict what will do well, so I hold everything.
ROTH: 50% AVGE, 10% DFAX, 40% BNDW. Taxable: 50% BNDW, 40% AVGE, 10% DFAX.
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
so 15 million is not half of 30?Logan Roy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:52 pmIt will certainly replace you, if your job is proofreading. lmaoburritoLover wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:27 pmSo there's 30 million jobs in the UK currently - so half of all jobs will be replaced by ChatGPT? lol.Logan Roy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:07 pmA Bank of England (I think) report forecast technology like ChatGPT replacing 15 million UK jobs in coming years. You're not going to need 15 million new coders fixing bugs.burritoLover wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:53 pm There will be a need for a bunch of human coders to fix all the AI bugs that pop up.
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
This kind of question always makes me think back to my high school years - and my love of old time movie stars.
I had quite the crush on Clark Gable (as in Gone with the Wind) and a newly met High School friend who gave me the Gone with the Wind book to read. The beginning of a beautiful friendship.
And here is what I hear in my head in Clark Gable's voice (not sure if this was said in the Movie - but it was in the book):
“What most people don't seem to realize is that there is just as much money to be made out of the wreckage of a civilization as from the upbuilding of one." -Rhett Butler
Margaret Mitchell Gone with the Wind
There's also the fact that the way that new tech and new knowledge don't change EVERYTHING overnight - it takes years or decades.
The thing to do is to keep learning/paying attention to what's going on in the world (and I don't mean the part of the world that you can see from your back porch or from your condo/office on the 21st floor of a highrise building. )
The thing to do is to be flexible and realize that your goals/plans often change over time.
I had quite the crush on Clark Gable (as in Gone with the Wind) and a newly met High School friend who gave me the Gone with the Wind book to read. The beginning of a beautiful friendship.
And here is what I hear in my head in Clark Gable's voice (not sure if this was said in the Movie - but it was in the book):
“What most people don't seem to realize is that there is just as much money to be made out of the wreckage of a civilization as from the upbuilding of one." -Rhett Butler
Margaret Mitchell Gone with the Wind
There's also the fact that the way that new tech and new knowledge don't change EVERYTHING overnight - it takes years or decades.
The thing to do is to keep learning/paying attention to what's going on in the world (and I don't mean the part of the world that you can see from your back porch or from your condo/office on the 21st floor of a highrise building. )
The thing to do is to be flexible and realize that your goals/plans often change over time.
Last edited by LittleMaggieMae on Fri Jan 27, 2023 2:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
Bah... The core of tech does not change as quickly as the wrapper and marketing tell you.
Humans are more likely to remove themselves from the planet by other methods (not able to say on this board).
Humans are more likely to remove themselves from the planet by other methods (not able to say on this board).
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Rob |
Its a dangerous business going out your front door. - J.R.R.Tolkien
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
ChatGPT is an over-confident pattern matcher and the blockchain continues to be absolutely pointless.
Yawn.
Yawn.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
It depends how pedantic we're being.. And that's not the bit I was taking issue with.burritoLover wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:55 pmso 15 million is not half of 30?Logan Roy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:52 pmIt will certainly replace you, if your job is proofreading. lmaoburritoLover wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:27 pmSo there's 30 million jobs in the UK currently - so half of all jobs will be replaced by ChatGPT? lol.Logan Roy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:07 pmA Bank of England (I think) report forecast technology like ChatGPT replacing 15 million UK jobs in coming years. You're not going to need 15 million new coders fixing bugs.burritoLover wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 12:53 pm There will be a need for a bunch of human coders to fix all the AI bugs that pop up.
Bank of England's chief economist forecast 15 million jobs being at risk. World Economic Forum forecast 85 million by 2025. But yes, automation replaced about 98% of agricultural work. This wave of automation will be more about white collar jobs.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
I haven’t played around with ChatGPT, but I do modeling as my day job. The tech keeps getting better.HawkeyePierce wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 2:04 pm ChatGPT is an over-confident pattern matcher and the blockchain continues to be absolutely pointless.
Yawn.
Blockchain is nothing more than a big old ledger being passed around. I don’t get the hype.
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
Best post of 2023 to date.Ollie123 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 10:53 am If we're near the end I think it is more on the scale of human history as opposed to the next 10 years. AI works very well for a handful of small designed "test tasks" that AI developers like to throw at it. When it screws up, it tends to do so in comically terrible ways to the point that a toddler could do better. Are we on the verge of being able to automate more things than we could 30 years ago? Sure, but this is always true. The only difference is that those tasks are now marginally more cerebral than before. If you're worried about changes tomorrow, remember that voice recognition is probably one of the easiest and most obvious applications for AI technology and we still have the same trash dysfunctional "Press 1 or say pharmacy" "You said <Farmer John>. Farmer John doesn't work here. Goodbye" technology we had 20 years ago.
Every tech bro and their brother now has a startup to "Build AI solutions for XYZ" but at least in my area these are generally cumbersome solutions with miserable sensitivity/specificity that almost invariably simply do...not...work. Like, at all. They're awful. It sounds scary and futuristic, but outside a handful of applications it is more marketing than substance at this point.
I'm personally far more worried about the tech industry collapsing under its own weight than I am about the takeover of AI. Programmers getting paid comical sums to cobble together code they found online and only half-understand to produce solutions that work okay 5% of the time, not at all the rest of the time, cost only moderately less than an employee to keep up and irritate the heck out of everyone who has to rely on them. Its all to keep the short-con going just long enough to trick the big players into paying them to stop existing. It won't spell the end of civilization, but I do think we're going to see corrections at some point. Startup funding will be harder to come by. Some of big tech is basically the new tobacco industry and will be hit with regulations, disdain from the general public, etc. though exactly what that looks like in the markets I can't say.
Long story short, I'm not losing sleep over this.
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Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
Then the original statement had no meaning - "coming years" could mean the next few or 30 or 100. Without that qualifier, one can only assume that it means the next few years.Logan Roy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 2:05 pmIt depends how pedantic we're being.. And that's not the bit I was taking issue with.burritoLover wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:55 pmso 15 million is not half of 30?Logan Roy wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:52 pmIt will certainly replace you, if your job is proofreading. lmaoburritoLover wrote: ↑Fri Jan 27, 2023 1:27 pmSo there's 30 million jobs in the UK currently - so half of all jobs will be replaced by ChatGPT? lol.
Bank of England's chief economist forecast 15 million jobs being at risk. World Economic Forum forecast 85 million by 2025. But yes, automation replaced about 98% of agricultural work. This wave of automation will be more about white collar jobs.
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end
It is certainly possible that we are on the verge of one or more technologies (AI, quantum computing, fusion, ...) in the near to medium term radically changing how our economic systems work. It's impossible to know when, how, or what these might be.
The genius of the capitalist form of economics is that it is a self-organizing and flexible system that can adapt to all manner of new circumstances. I don't see a compelling reason to see that the coming years will be any different in this respect*. Within capitalism, of course, various companies and people will come out as winners and losers. The winners are hard to know (and may not even exist yet). This is why Mr. Bogle and his acolytes advocate for owning a slice of every pie.
* The transformative potential of some of these technologies could be huge, but are they really more radical than mass electrification, or the computer, or the internet? Maybe, maybe not. Capitalism has adapted to all these and more. It will probably absorb whatever comes next. If it doesn't? It's hard to see what I could do in that case and it'll take decades to play out. I figure I might as well not worry about it as an investor (as a human and an employee, it might be a different situation).
The genius of the capitalist form of economics is that it is a self-organizing and flexible system that can adapt to all manner of new circumstances. I don't see a compelling reason to see that the coming years will be any different in this respect*. Within capitalism, of course, various companies and people will come out as winners and losers. The winners are hard to know (and may not even exist yet). This is why Mr. Bogle and his acolytes advocate for owning a slice of every pie.
* The transformative potential of some of these technologies could be huge, but are they really more radical than mass electrification, or the computer, or the internet? Maybe, maybe not. Capitalism has adapted to all these and more. It will probably absorb whatever comes next. If it doesn't? It's hard to see what I could do in that case and it'll take decades to play out. I figure I might as well not worry about it as an investor (as a human and an employee, it might be a different situation).
“I am losing precious days. I am degenerating into a machine for making money. I am learning nothing in this trivial world of men. I must break away and get out into the mountains...” -- John Muir
Re: Could this be the beginning of the end [predictability of market direction]
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