OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Have a question about your personal investments? No matter how simple or complex, you can ask it here.
nalor511
Posts: 5016
Joined: Mon Jul 27, 2015 1:00 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by nalor511 »

CloudStrife1990 wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:51 pm I heard that there's some rumours emerging that Credit Suisse is on the verge of bankruptcy and that there's an emergency meeting of the Fed on Monday.

Anyone know what the impact this would be on the market?
This is fake news, the Fed meeting is regularly scheduled
InvestorDave
Posts: 53
Joined: Tue Sep 23, 2014 11:23 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by InvestorDave »

nalor511 wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:03 pm
CloudStrife1990 wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 7:51 pm I heard that there's some rumours emerging that Credit Suisse is on the verge of bankruptcy and that there's an emergency meeting of the Fed on Monday.

Anyone know what the impact this would be on the market?
This is fake news, the Fed meeting is regularly scheduled
This article from 10 days ago says that there are no scheduled meetings for October.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore ... t-expects/
User avatar
Beensabu
Posts: 5618
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Beensabu »

Closed Board Meeting on October 3, 2022

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthe ... closed.htm
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
KlangFool
Posts: 31426
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2008 12:35 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by KlangFool »

Beensabu wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:21 pm Closed Board Meeting on October 3, 2022

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthe ... closed.htm
Beensabu,

As per the web page that you posted, this web page was updated on 9/29/2022.

KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
Weathering
Posts: 791
Joined: Sun Oct 15, 2017 4:20 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Weathering »

Beensabu wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:21 pm Closed Board Meeting on October 3, 2022

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthe ... closed.htm
https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthe ... gdates.htm

Lots of Fed meetings - at least one, sometimes two, and occasionally three per month.
User avatar
Beensabu
Posts: 5618
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Beensabu »

I guess it's not an emergency meeting then, is it? :D
KlangFool wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:32 pm
Beensabu wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:21 pm Closed Board Meeting on October 3, 2022

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthe ... closed.htm
Beensabu,

As per the web page that you posted, this web page was updated on 9/29/2022.

KlangFool
Weathering wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:32 pm https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthe ... gdates.htm

Lots of Fed meetings - at least one, sometimes two, and occasionally three per month.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
CloudStrife1990
Posts: 9
Joined: Sat Nov 24, 2018 6:33 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by CloudStrife1990 »

Beensabu wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:49 pm I guess it's not an emergency meeting then, is it? :D
KlangFool wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:32 pm
Beensabu wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:21 pm Closed Board Meeting on October 3, 2022

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthe ... closed.htm
Beensabu,

As per the web page that you posted, this web page was updated on 9/29/2022.

KlangFool
Weathering wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:32 pm https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthe ... gdates.htm

Lots of Fed meetings - at least one, sometimes two, and occasionally three per month.
Yep! guess its nothing!
sureshoe
Posts: 2164
Joined: Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:26 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by sureshoe »

ronno2018 wrote: Sat Sep 03, 2022 3:32 pm Just switched my measly $1600 a month 401K contribution from VBTLX (total bond) to FXAIX (large stock blend).

Also just reached my bond holdings goal (more or less). Almost 59.5yo. Decisions ahead -- bad idea? Is this market timing? :sharebeer
Yes, it's market timing, and so far the call has been wrong.

But, I give you credit for posting a prediction. It's better than all these other people who talk about their brilliant market timing with no proof.
User avatar
ruralavalon
Posts: 26297
Joined: Sat Feb 02, 2008 9:29 am
Location: Illinois

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by ruralavalon »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 am
Ed 2 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pm
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:34 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:00 pm

I’ve got a 2 week old GTC order in for $178.95 in taxable. At the end of the trading day Friday I was frozen, holding my breath. I’m torn whether GTC orders are the dumbest, or smartest things ever. Dumbest because you might hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger, or smartest, because you hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger (lol). I guess I’ll know this week.

I bought FSKAX late in the day though in a regular market order for my Roth IRA. Tired of all these *games*! (hypocritical mock sigh, back of hand to forehead).
I don’t do any tricky sort of buying. I just buy in taxable on the last day of the month, knowing dollar cost averaging is a sure ways to neutralize worry over whether stocks are going to go up, or if they’re going to go down over the short term.
I auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.
I don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!
Maybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?
No, it is NOT foolish to buy now in a declining market. It is NOT a huge mistake.

I invest whenever I have money available to invest. For what it's worth, I invested in stock index funds as much as I could (regularly every pay period, and all bonuses) in late 2008 and early 2009 (when the stock market was plunging), and it turned out fine :) .
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein | Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
User avatar
goodenyou
Posts: 3601
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 10:57 pm
Location: Skating to Where the Puck is Going to Be..or on the golf course

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by goodenyou »

ruralavalon wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:15 am
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 am
Ed 2 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pm
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:34 pm
I don’t do any tricky sort of buying. I just buy in taxable on the last day of the month, knowing dollar cost averaging is a sure ways to neutralize worry over whether stocks are going to go up, or if they’re going to go down over the short term.
I auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.
I don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!
Maybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?
No, it is NOT foolish to buy now in a declining market. It is NOT a huge mistake.

I invest whenever I have money available to invest. For what it's worth, I invested in stock index funds as much as I could (regularly every pay period, and all bonuses) in late 2008 and early 2009 (when the stock market was plunging), and it turned out fine :) .
Yeah...but this time is different...just kidding :D
"Ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" | “At 50, everyone has the face he deserves”
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by nigel_ht »

goodenyou wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:08 pm
ruralavalon wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:15 am
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 am Maybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?
No, it is NOT foolish to buy now in a declining market. It is NOT a huge mistake.

I invest whenever I have money available to invest. For what it's worth, I invested in stock index funds as much as I could (regularly every pay period, and all bonuses) in late 2008 and early 2009 (when the stock market was plunging), and it turned out fine :) .
Yeah...but this time is different...just kidding :D
Someday it will be different. I'm sufficiently sure that it's not today to "stay the course"...
User avatar
AnnetteLouisan
Posts: 7239
Joined: Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:16 pm
Location: New York, NY

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

goodenyou wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:08 pm
ruralavalon wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:15 am
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 am
Ed 2 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pm

I auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.
I don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!
Maybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?
No, it is NOT foolish to buy now in a declining market. It is NOT a huge mistake.

I invest whenever I have money available to invest. For what it's worth, I invested in stock index funds as much as I could (regularly every pay period, and all bonuses) in late 2008 and early 2009 (when the stock market was plunging), and it turned out fine :) .
Yeah...but this time is different...just kidding :D
Well, I’m still investing. It will be nice if it works out eventually and I have time (I believe). I’m also saving. My 401K looks like heck but I’m sure that’s true for most of us. I’ll tune out the noise and focus on my work, hobbies, health, friends and family. No point staring into this abyss.
sureshoe
Posts: 2164
Joined: Tue Jan 15, 2019 3:26 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by sureshoe »

strummer6969 wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 12:49 pm
pennywiser wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 10:53 am
strummer6969 wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:59 am I've learned from personal experience that shoving extra money into a bear market (beyond AA) is a terrible idea. I had a job loss when I did that in 2008 and ended up selling stocks at a loss (double whammy).
It seems to me that the issue here was not having emergency fund in place, rather than investing in bear market...
I had a few months of emergency funds. In my case, I ended up needing 1 year in emergency funds.
I don't think anyone here would support the idea of dipping into cash reserves to buy stock while unemployed - regardless of market conditions. The other issue here was market timing.

Lots of people talk about "dry powder" and other mechanisms to have extra money for "buying opportunities". The problem is nobody has ever been able to consistently identify what is a buying opportunity vs. a good place to lose more.
EnjoyIt
Posts: 8244
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:06 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by EnjoyIt »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:32 am
goodenyou wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:08 pm
ruralavalon wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:15 am
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 am
Ed 2 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pm

I don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!
Maybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?
No, it is NOT foolish to buy now in a declining market. It is NOT a huge mistake.

I invest whenever I have money available to invest. For what it's worth, I invested in stock index funds as much as I could (regularly every pay period, and all bonuses) in late 2008 and early 2009 (when the stock market was plunging), and it turned out fine :) .
Yeah...but this time is different...just kidding :D
Well, I’m still investing. It will be nice if it works out eventually and I have time (I believe). I’m also saving. My 401K looks like heck but I’m sure that’s true for most of us. I’ll tune out the noise and focus on my work, hobbies, health, friends and family. No point staring into this abyss.
Recessions are when millionaires are made.

If you stay the course, keep buying, rebalance if/when needed, you will be looking great on the other side.

Good luck.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
User avatar
AnnetteLouisan
Posts: 7239
Joined: Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:16 pm
Location: New York, NY

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

Thanks. I already have $1.95M (and no debt) but point taken. There’s always room for improvement. :beer
rakish_weasel
Posts: 78
Joined: Thu May 21, 2015 1:02 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by rakish_weasel »

...and just like that, Mon-Tue the Dow rises more than +1500 pts and the overall markets are up 5.8%. Nobody can know for sure if this is a dead cat bounce or the start of a turnaround, but it should be clear that the old adage of "it's darkest before the dawn" applies to investing. Anyone selling low and "waiting for things to turn around" before buying back in... will miss the quick-hit rises like this.
EnjoyIt
Posts: 8244
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:06 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by EnjoyIt »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 10:23 am Thanks. I already have $1.95M (and no debt) but point taken. There’s always room for improvement. :beer
But for your case I will amend it.

Recessions are when multi millionaires are made. :beer
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
Ed 2
Posts: 2692
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:34 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Ed 2 »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 am
Ed 2 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pm
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:34 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 1:00 pm

I’ve got a 2 week old GTC order in for $178.95 in taxable. At the end of the trading day Friday I was frozen, holding my breath. I’m torn whether GTC orders are the dumbest, or smartest things ever. Dumbest because you might hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger, or smartest, because you hold off buying at good prices waiting for them to trigger (lol). I guess I’ll know this week.

I bought FSKAX late in the day though in a regular market order for my Roth IRA. Tired of all these *games*! (hypocritical mock sigh, back of hand to forehead).
I don’t do any tricky sort of buying. I just buy in taxable on the last day of the month, knowing dollar cost averaging is a sure ways to neutralize worry over whether stocks are going to go up, or if they’re going to go down over the short term.
I auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.
I don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!
Maybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?
No, I mean the opposite. Plus , I was and am equity investor all the way. Read my comments on the other threads. In my opinion if you less than 60 and your life expectancy in high , you’ve got to invest into equity’s as aggressive as possible and stop watching news if you can’t stand bear markets.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
User avatar
AnnetteLouisan
Posts: 7239
Joined: Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:16 pm
Location: New York, NY

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

Ed 2 wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:33 am
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 am
Ed 2 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pm
Wanderingwheelz wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 2:34 pm
I don’t do any tricky sort of buying. I just buy in taxable on the last day of the month, knowing dollar cost averaging is a sure ways to neutralize worry over whether stocks are going to go up, or if they’re going to go down over the short term.
I auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.
I don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!
Maybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?
No, I mean the opposite. Plus , I was and am equity investor all the way. Read my comments on the other threads. In my opinion if you less than 60 and your life expectancy in high , you’ve got to invest into equity’s as aggressive as possible and stop watching news if you can’t stand bear markets.
I’m mid 50s and there is longevity in my family (most have lived into their late 80s to mid 90s but my case may be different). I’m actually oddly calm in this bear market to the extent that my calmness about it worries me. I read but rarely watch the news.

I’ve gone relatively big into equities (by my standards - not by everybody’s) into this bear, while being traditionally bond heavy. I could go in much bigger in since I also have savings but I think it will last a while so I’m DCAing. My total new investment amount per month is around $14k now, across accounts, around 60 percent equities (AA target is 30/70 from 20/80 equity/fixed).
Topic Author
ronno2018
Posts: 567
Joined: Sat Apr 14, 2018 9:31 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by ronno2018 »

EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:18 am
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:32 am
goodenyou wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:08 pm
ruralavalon wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:15 am
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 am

Maybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?
No, it is NOT foolish to buy now in a declining market. It is NOT a huge mistake.

I invest whenever I have money available to invest. For what it's worth, I invested in stock index funds as much as I could (regularly every pay period, and all bonuses) in late 2008 and early 2009 (when the stock market was plunging), and it turned out fine :) .
Yeah...but this time is different...just kidding :D
Well, I’m still investing. It will be nice if it works out eventually and I have time (I believe). I’m also saving. My 401K looks like heck but I’m sure that’s true for most of us. I’ll tune out the noise and focus on my work, hobbies, health, friends and family. No point staring into this abyss.
Recessions are when millionaires are made.

If you stay the course, keep buying, rebalance if/when needed, you will be looking great on the other side.

Good luck.
Yeah, I guess I am influenced by my relative success in continuing to buy equities every month after the mortgage banking crisis in 2007. I bought when the market kept going down and I bought as it came up. I am pretty sure I did not rebalance back then and had no IPS other than knowing I needed to diversify.

After all the gains post 2007 I read this forum and redid things into an actual investor policy statement.

No idea if it will work well this time but I am HODL 75/25 as the kids say.
EnjoyIt
Posts: 8244
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:06 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by EnjoyIt »

ronno2018 wrote: Thu Oct 06, 2022 6:11 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 9:18 am
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:32 am
goodenyou wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 12:08 pm
ruralavalon wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:15 am
No, it is NOT foolish to buy now in a declining market. It is NOT a huge mistake.

I invest whenever I have money available to invest. For what it's worth, I invested in stock index funds as much as I could (regularly every pay period, and all bonuses) in late 2008 and early 2009 (when the stock market was plunging), and it turned out fine :) .
Yeah...but this time is different...just kidding :D
Well, I’m still investing. It will be nice if it works out eventually and I have time (I believe). I’m also saving. My 401K looks like heck but I’m sure that’s true for most of us. I’ll tune out the noise and focus on my work, hobbies, health, friends and family. No point staring into this abyss.
Recessions are when millionaires are made.

If you stay the course, keep buying, rebalance if/when needed, you will be looking great on the other side.

Good luck.
Yeah, I guess I am influenced by my relative success in continuing to buy equities every month after the mortgage banking crisis in 2007. I bought when the market kept going down and I bought as it came up. I am pretty sure I did not rebalance back then and had no IPS other than knowing I needed to diversify.

After all the gains post 2007 I read this forum and redid things into an actual investor policy statement.

No idea if it will work well this time but I am HODL 75/25 as the kids say.
This strategy has worked in every previous recession. I suspect it will work in this recession as well. I could be wrong but I doubt it.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
User avatar
William Million
Posts: 1130
Joined: Wed May 05, 2010 4:41 am
Location: A Deep Mountain

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by William Million »

I'm also buying into the bear.
Californiastate
Posts: 1516
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2021 10:52 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by Californiastate »

I'm fully invested 100% of the time. I used to play around like I was Jesse Livermore but in the end it was a fools errand.
rivendell
Posts: 92
Joined: Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:08 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by rivendell »

Just a question for those buying equity positions into what may be a bear market or recession. Will you keep buying if it lasts 16 years? Take for example the period between 1929-1945 or 1962-1981.

Is your IPS and emergency fund arranged to adjust for a very long recession and recovery? Almost no one left now who lived through those years but reading history of those times I know it would have been hard to keep buying stocks. Smart but difficult :happy
Last edited by rivendell on Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
“On a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero.” | ― Chuck Palahniuk
User avatar
C4NT
Posts: 271
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2011 12:30 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by C4NT »

rivendell wrote: Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:37 am Just a question for those buying equity positions into what may be a bear market or recession. Will you keep buying if it lasts 16 years? Take for example the period between 1929-1945.

Is your IPS and emergency fund arranged to adjust for a very long recession and recovery? Almost no one left now who lived through those years but reading history of those times I know it would have been hard to keep buying stocks. Smart but difficult :happy
I'm about 20 years away from retirement, so I probably will keep investing.
z3r0c00l
Posts: 3790
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2012 11:43 am
Location: NYC

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by z3r0c00l »

C4NT wrote: Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:08 am
rivendell wrote: Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:37 am Just a question for those buying equity positions into what may be a bear market or recession. Will you keep buying if it lasts 16 years? Take for example the period between 1929-1945.

Is your IPS and emergency fund arranged to adjust for a very long recession and recovery? Almost no one left now who lived through those years but reading history of those times I know it would have been hard to keep buying stocks. Smart but difficult :happy
I'm about 20 years away from retirement, so I probably will keep investing.
This isn't 1929, unemployment is in the 3% range back then it was 25%. Wages are going up and inflation is rampant, back then it was a deflationary spiral. Instead think about 1968-82. 15 years would be ideal, imagine retiring with a solid amount of stocks and bonds in 1982? 18 years of growing wealth to follow plus the value of your home keeps going up. Retiring after that bad stretch would leave you the enviable problem of figuring out how to spend your millions, which many baby boomers are still struggling with today.

But one thing is very clear, bear markets are usually very short. The last three were brief, and 2020 was positively gone in a blink of an eye. Average is 289 days and we happen to be 288 days into the year today. For that reason, while your scenario is possible, I think it rather unlikely. Odds are decent that all time highs will be seen in a year or two at the most.
Last edited by z3r0c00l on Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
User avatar
AnnetteLouisan
Posts: 7239
Joined: Sat Sep 18, 2021 10:16 pm
Location: New York, NY

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

rivendell wrote: Sun Oct 16, 2022 5:37 am Just a question for those buying equity positions into what may be a bear market or recession. Will you keep buying if it lasts 16 years? Take for example the period between 1929-1945.

Is your IPS and emergency fund arranged to adjust for a very long recession and recovery? Almost no one left now who lived through those years but reading history of those times I know it would have been hard to keep buying stocks. Smart but difficult :happy
Well, I’ll bite I guess. I’m nibbling into the bear. Only using money that I believe I can afford and won’t need for 10 or more years - mostly from salary and my 20+ year EF (yep, more than KlangF). I don’t think this will last for 16 years. I’ve already been through hard times (60s, 70s and 80s) and I think the market is oversold and a certain amount of hysteria is out there. I don’t intend to keep buying at the same pace for 16 years because I only have a few more years of accumulating left (probably 2-5, ten max). I have a lot in HYSAs that I am trying to get invested at good prices and to bump up my historically risk averse AA to 30/70 from 20/80. I also live very low to the ground with no debt, no family obligations, and way under my means. I am also continuing to save and buying treasuries. That’s why I have a little extra to invest now.

All my family members made their money buying low in bad times, so I’m continuing that tradition. Look out for opportunities in this time of great change. People will be selling more than just stocks.

Could I be very wrong? Yes. That’s why I’m nibbling into the bear now, it could go lower, I get that. But most of my life I didn’t take advantage of my opportunity to be in the markets and I’m making up for that a little now. Also I prefer to buy low and the market seems low now. I was more worried in 2021 when stock prices seemed overheated. Hey, this pullback at least means markets are working.

The whole point of the Boglehead philosophy is to keep your cool and keep investing steadily at times like these, not getting too caught up in the moment. I’ve learned a lot from all of you and developed some sangfroid, or discovered nerves of steel I didn’t know I had.

Time will tell if it was the right decision. If not, there’s pension, social security and rents.
Last edited by AnnetteLouisan on Sun Oct 16, 2022 6:47 am, edited 14 times in total.
cbs2002
Posts: 697
Joined: Thu Feb 27, 2020 1:10 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by cbs2002 »

The nice thing is because bonds have cratered I don't need to rebalance as long as I keep buying equities twice a month in my 401K.
pennywiser
Posts: 177
Joined: Sat Jul 16, 2022 1:54 pm
Location: UK

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by pennywiser »

So is this is it? Is the bottom in place now? Today inflation ticked lower than last month and S&P 500 takes off like a rocket, up 4.7%, Nasdaq up 6.2%. I didn't think it would be this easy to slow down the inflation. I am thinking that interest rates are not really that high for 7.7% inflation and employment is still very strong. But the as long as inflation doesn't go higher (than 7.7% YoY) again next month I guess we should be out of the woods. Opinions?
Last edited by pennywiser on Thu Nov 10, 2022 1:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
nalor511
Posts: 5016
Joined: Mon Jul 27, 2015 1:00 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by nalor511 »

Inflation data is always past looking. Fed raised higher, quicker, than previously. We've still not necessarily seen the ramifications of what they've done. Will they continue? Are markets guessing correctly? Who knows :twisted:
rakish_weasel
Posts: 78
Joined: Thu May 21, 2015 1:02 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by rakish_weasel »

No posts on this once since November, so thought I'd look back to see where exactly things 'bottomed out', as of today. OP declared the bottom on September 3rd, and will reference VTI as a stand-in for the markets.

Date.............VTI price
9/3........ .....194.16
9/17.............192.10
9/23.............182.64
9/30.............177.89
10/12............177.72
4/19/2023......206.10

Was only about 5 weeks off of where the (so far) bottom actually hit --- not too terrible in comparison with how wrong many market-timing efforts have gone.

-rw
EnjoyIt
Posts: 8244
Joined: Sun Dec 29, 2013 7:06 pm

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by EnjoyIt »

rakish_weasel wrote: Thu Apr 20, 2023 10:47 am No posts on this once since November, so thought I'd look back to see where exactly things 'bottomed out', as of today. OP declared the bottom on September 3rd, and will reference VTI as a stand-in for the markets.

Date.............VTI price
9/3........ .....194.16
9/17.............192.10
9/23.............182.64
9/30.............177.89
10/12............177.72
4/19/2023......206.10

Was only about 5 weeks off of where the (so far) bottom actually hit --- not too terrible in comparison with how wrong many market-timing efforts have gone.

-rw
Off by 5 weeks and 8.5%.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
User avatar
nedsaid
Posts: 19249
Joined: Fri Nov 23, 2012 11:33 am

Re: OK, I am calling the bottom of this market cycle

Post by nedsaid »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:52 am
Ed 2 wrote: Wed Oct 05, 2022 5:33 am
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 8:47 am
Ed 2 wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:04 pm
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Sat Oct 01, 2022 7:00 pm

I auto transfer $5k a month on the last day of the month to taxable, so I’m halfway there.
I don’t know your age , but .... if you can save 5k a month and buy equity’s during market like this .... good for you!
Maybe I misunderstood your comment. Are you saying it’s foolish to invest into this declining market? I do sometimes wonder if I’m congratulating myself not realizing I’m making a huge mistake. Should I not be buying equities now? I thought we should be?
No, I mean the opposite. Plus , I was and am equity investor all the way. Read my comments on the other threads. In my opinion if you less than 60 and your life expectancy in high , you’ve got to invest into equity’s as aggressive as possible and stop watching news if you can’t stand bear markets.
I’m mid 50s and there is longevity in my family (most have lived into their late 80s to mid 90s but my case may be different). I’m actually oddly calm in this bear market to the extent that my calmness about it worries me. I read but rarely watch the news.

I’ve gone relatively big into equities (by my standards - not by everybody’s) into this bear, while being traditionally bond heavy. I could go in much bigger in since I also have savings but I think it will last a while so I’m DCAing. My total new investment amount per month is around $14k now, across accounts, around 60 percent equities (AA target is 30/70 from 20/80 equity/fixed).
For you, an Asset Allocation Target of 30% stocks/70% bonds might just be the ticket. Over time, it should still be less volatile than a 100% bond portfolio and get you extra return.

Weird, but I was very conservative as a young investor but in those days you could get an easy 6% from a Certificate of Deposit. One of my first purchases with my new brokerage account in late 1988 or early 1989 were US Treasury Zero Coupon Bonds which had an 8% interest rate. By the time I was 40, I was pretty much pedal to the metal with over 90% of my portfolio in stocks. In early 2000, I went to 80% stocks and worked it down to about 70/30 where I stayed until the 2008/2009 financial crisis hit. Now at age 63, I have about 63% in stocks.

So yes, I know what it is like to be very conservative but as I turned more aggressive, I had the good fortune of being in one of the great bull markets of all time, a bull market in stocks and a bull market in bonds. I saw US Treasury yields drop from 14% to nearly zero. Others who started their investing career at a different time won't have the same experience of having gale force winds at your back. I bought my first mutual fund in July 1984, Twentieth Century Select, at almost the precise time that a historic bull market was just beginning. No wonder why I tend to be bullish.

I think you will be very pleased with a 30/70 portfolio, it is still very conservative.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Post Reply