Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

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just frank
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

gougou wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:43 pm Toyota happens to sell a lot of cars and some of the most popular cars. Pretty much all the best-selling Toyota cars have Hybrid versions. I think government should promote buying Hybrids by offering a tax rebate - an upgrade that costs a couple thousand dollars per car cut the total amount of gasoline consumed by 1/3 or more. That seems more effective than offering $7.5K+ for a BEV that still mostly run on natural gas and coal.
Incorrect.

The lifetime CO2 emissions of BEVs running on 2022 US grid average electricity are the same as a similar sized ICE vehicle getting >90 mpg. Including battery supply chain and manufacturing. And this figure will improve steadily over the 15+ year lifetime of the car as the US grid continues to decarbonize. So the HEVs sold in 2022 will likely have 2X the emissions of the BEVs over their service lives.

This is because the carbon intensity of nat gas is much lower than oil (which is similar to coal on a BTU basis), and a gas turbine and electric motor is much more efficient than an ICE engine.

This seems to be common misconception, that both an ICE car and a BEV must use the same total amount of energy on the front end. In practice, BEVs use a lot less primary energy, bc ICEngines are very inefficient thermodynamically.

I also charge my BEV automatically at night, so much of my energy comes from legacy nukes versus gas plants that ramp up during the day.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

Atomic wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:11 pm Little late to the thread, here is my experience. I had a 2008 Toyota Matrix that I initially liked but had grown to hate. In 2018 I upgraded to the 2015 Nissan Leaf.
I drive about 12k/yr and expected to save money on gas, but I didn't appreciate how much I would save until I got into it a bit. Here are the factors that lead to increased savings: 1) My utility offers a time of use rate that is very cheap, at 4.4 cents per kWh. 2) Since it's cheaper to operate than our other car, a Honda Fit, we actually put even more miles on the electric, raising the annual average mileage to over 15k. 3)this one is weird, but once I was on the EV rate tier, the utility let's relatively minor loads meter under the same tier. Suddenly my AC was 1/2 price. I have since electrified my water heater, added my furnace fan and an air source heat pump to that tier. I can't quantify all the savings, but it feels significant.
Holy Cow! 4.4 cents a kWHr? Can I run an extension cord to my house and I'll give you a dime a kWHr? The recent couple weeks of record high temps here in New England, running our central air at 30 cents a kWHr is going to hurt when the bill comes in. So much easier in the winter to do something about it, burning more firewood in our central wood furnace.

At that kind of price, I can see how an EV is such a good proposal, even if the purchase price is high. I'm still looking for a car and have driven both sides. Most recently, an Audi e tron GT, which I really liked. But I think I'm going to show my wife a Cadillac Ct4-V Blackwing as its not much more than half the price of the Audi. I've mentioned all my gas cost savings already, so I won't repeat it.
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just frank
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:52 pm
Atomic wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:11 pm Little late to the thread, here is my experience. I had a 2008 Toyota Matrix that I initially liked but had grown to hate. In 2018 I upgraded to the 2015 Nissan Leaf.
I drive about 12k/yr and expected to save money on gas, but I didn't appreciate how much I would save until I got into it a bit. Here are the factors that lead to increased savings: 1) My utility offers a time of use rate that is very cheap, at 4.4 cents per kWh. 2) Since it's cheaper to operate than our other car, a Honda Fit, we actually put even more miles on the electric, raising the annual average mileage to over 15k. 3)this one is weird, but once I was on the EV rate tier, the utility let's relatively minor loads meter under the same tier. Suddenly my AC was 1/2 price. I have since electrified my water heater, added my furnace fan and an air source heat pump to that tier. I can't quantify all the savings, but it feels significant.
Holy Cow! 4.4 cents a kWHr? Can I run an extension cord to my house and I'll give you a dime a kWHr? The recent couple weeks of record high temps here in New England, running our central air at 30 cents a kWHr is going to hurt when the bill comes in. So much easier in the winter to do something about it, burning more firewood in our central wood furnace.

At that kind of price, I can see how an EV is such a good proposal, even if the purchase price is high. I'm still looking for a car and have driven both sides. Most recently, an Audi e tron GT, which I really liked. But I think I'm going to show my wife a Cadillac Ct4-V Blackwing as its not much more than half the price of the Audi. I've mentioned all my gas cost savings already, so I won't repeat it.
My overnight TOU rate here in PA is similar. You might check yours.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by gougou »

just frank wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:29 pm
gougou wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:43 pm Toyota happens to sell a lot of cars and some of the most popular cars. Pretty much all the best-selling Toyota cars have Hybrid versions. I think government should promote buying Hybrids by offering a tax rebate - an upgrade that costs a couple thousand dollars per car cut the total amount of gasoline consumed by 1/3 or more. That seems more effective than offering $7.5K+ for a BEV that still mostly run on natural gas and coal.
Incorrect.

The lifetime CO2 emissions of BEVs running on 2022 US grid average electricity are the same as a similar sized ICE vehicle getting >90 mpg. Including battery supply chain and manufacturing. And this figure will improve steadily over the 15+ year lifetime of the car as the US grid continues to decarbonize. So the HEVs sold in 2022 will likely have 2X the emissions of the BEVs over their service lives.

This is because the carbon intensity of nat gas is much lower than oil (which is similar to coal on a BTU basis), and a gas turbine and electric motor is much more efficient than an ICE engine.

This seems to be common misconception, that both an ICE car and a BEV must use the same total amount of energy on the front end. In practice, BEVs use a lot less primary energy, bc ICEngines are very inefficient thermodynamically.

I also charge my BEV automatically at night, so much of my energy comes from legacy nukes versus gas plants that ramp up during the day.
A lot of people are going to stick with ICEs. There are currently no BEV pickup trucks, BEV mini-vans for sale and no affordable BEV SUVs so these buyers can't buy an EV even if they want to.

Let's say government pays you $2K to buy the Hybrid vs the regular ICE, so you pretty much get the Hybrid upgrade for free and save a lot of fuel. I expect most people would happily take that option. Each $2k tax subsidy cuts 1/3 of gasoline consumption of an average ICE car. $6k tax subsidy cuts the gasoline consumption (and carbon emission) of an average ICE car.

The $7.5k subsidy on a BEV will reduce maybe 1/2 to 2/3 the carbon emission vs an average ICE car. You need more than $10K subsidies to cut the emission of an average ICE car. Even if we pretend BEVs don't emit any CO2, that $7.5k is still more than the $6k. That's obviously more tax money spent for less carbon reduction, if your goal is purely to reduce carbon emissions.

The cost to go from ICE to Hybrid is pretty affordable with no impact to the practicality of the cars while the cost to go from ICE to BEV is hugely expensive. I think it's pretty obvious where the money should be spent to reduce carbon emissions.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

Given car makers can't build EVs as fast as they can sell them these days, there's really no reason for subsidies at this point. It would be better to spend all the money on electrical infrastructure and charging stations.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

gougou wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:52 pm
just frank wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:29 pm
gougou wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:43 pm Toyota happens to sell a lot of cars and some of the most popular cars. Pretty much all the best-selling Toyota cars have Hybrid versions. I think government should promote buying Hybrids by offering a tax rebate - an upgrade that costs a couple thousand dollars per car cut the total amount of gasoline consumed by 1/3 or more. That seems more effective than offering $7.5K+ for a BEV that still mostly run on natural gas and coal.
Incorrect.

The lifetime CO2 emissions of BEVs running on 2022 US grid average electricity are the same as a similar sized ICE vehicle getting >90 mpg. Including battery supply chain and manufacturing. And this figure will improve steadily over the 15+ year lifetime of the car as the US grid continues to decarbonize. So the HEVs sold in 2022 will likely have 2X the emissions of the BEVs over their service lives.

This is because the carbon intensity of nat gas is much lower than oil (which is similar to coal on a BTU basis), and a gas turbine and electric motor is much more efficient than an ICE engine.

This seems to be common misconception, that both an ICE car and a BEV must use the same total amount of energy on the front end. In practice, BEVs use a lot less primary energy, bc ICEngines are very inefficient thermodynamically.

I also charge my BEV automatically at night, so much of my energy comes from legacy nukes versus gas plants that ramp up during the day.
A lot of people are going to stick with ICEs. There are currently no BEV pickup trucks, BEV mini-vans for sale and no affordable BEV SUVs so these buyers can't buy an EV even if they want to.

Let's say government pays you $2K to buy the Hybrid vs the regular ICE, so you pretty much get the Hybrid upgrade for free and save a lot of fuel. I expect most people would happily take that option. Each $2k tax subsidy cuts 1/3 of gasoline consumption of an average ICE car. $6k tax subsidy cuts the gasoline consumption (and carbon emission) of an average ICE car.

The $7.5k subsidy on a BEV will reduce maybe 1/2 to 2/3 the carbon emission vs an average ICE car. You need more than $10K subsidies to cut the emission of an average ICE car. Even if we pretend BEVs don't emit any CO2, that $7.5k is still more than the $6k. That's obviously more tax money spent for less carbon reduction, if your goal is purely to reduce carbon emissions.

The cost to go from ICE to Hybrid is pretty affordable with no impact to the practicality of the cars while the cost to go from ICE to BEV is hugely expensive. I think it's pretty obvious where the money should be spent to reduce carbon emissions.
I appreciate you doing some math here to try to estimate the most cost effective way to achieve CO2 reduction. I tend to think 'strong' hybrid upgrades on most cars (that get significant mpg improvement, not mild hybrids) tend to cost more than $2k. I think if they cost that little, many people would get them without a subsidy.

That said, the goal of EV subsidies (in general) is not to sell more EVs in 2022 and the next several years, and reduce CO2 over the next 15-20 years, it is to 'pull forward' the EV adoptions curve by several years, and spurring demand that will lead to makers to make more EVs in the next few years (and more EV models as you mentioned). Since the cost of the batteries and EV tech is still falling quickly according to a learning curve, this will have the effect of reducing the TCO of these future models, so that organic adoption (not subsidy driven) will also be pulled forward.

HEVs are already mature tech, and not very successful in the US market (i.e. flat/falling sales numbers). Their maturity suggests that selling more won't reduce their costs, and won't lead to increased future (subsidy free) adoption.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by gougou »

just frank wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:30 pm
gougou wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:52 pm
just frank wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:29 pm
gougou wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:43 pm Toyota happens to sell a lot of cars and some of the most popular cars. Pretty much all the best-selling Toyota cars have Hybrid versions. I think government should promote buying Hybrids by offering a tax rebate - an upgrade that costs a couple thousand dollars per car cut the total amount of gasoline consumed by 1/3 or more. That seems more effective than offering $7.5K+ for a BEV that still mostly run on natural gas and coal.
Incorrect.

The lifetime CO2 emissions of BEVs running on 2022 US grid average electricity are the same as a similar sized ICE vehicle getting >90 mpg. Including battery supply chain and manufacturing. And this figure will improve steadily over the 15+ year lifetime of the car as the US grid continues to decarbonize. So the HEVs sold in 2022 will likely have 2X the emissions of the BEVs over their service lives.

This is because the carbon intensity of nat gas is much lower than oil (which is similar to coal on a BTU basis), and a gas turbine and electric motor is much more efficient than an ICE engine.

This seems to be common misconception, that both an ICE car and a BEV must use the same total amount of energy on the front end. In practice, BEVs use a lot less primary energy, bc ICEngines are very inefficient thermodynamically.

I also charge my BEV automatically at night, so much of my energy comes from legacy nukes versus gas plants that ramp up during the day.
A lot of people are going to stick with ICEs. There are currently no BEV pickup trucks, BEV mini-vans for sale and no affordable BEV SUVs so these buyers can't buy an EV even if they want to.

Let's say government pays you $2K to buy the Hybrid vs the regular ICE, so you pretty much get the Hybrid upgrade for free and save a lot of fuel. I expect most people would happily take that option. Each $2k tax subsidy cuts 1/3 of gasoline consumption of an average ICE car. $6k tax subsidy cuts the gasoline consumption (and carbon emission) of an average ICE car.

The $7.5k subsidy on a BEV will reduce maybe 1/2 to 2/3 the carbon emission vs an average ICE car. You need more than $10K subsidies to cut the emission of an average ICE car. Even if we pretend BEVs don't emit any CO2, that $7.5k is still more than the $6k. That's obviously more tax money spent for less carbon reduction, if your goal is purely to reduce carbon emissions.

The cost to go from ICE to Hybrid is pretty affordable with no impact to the practicality of the cars while the cost to go from ICE to BEV is hugely expensive. I think it's pretty obvious where the money should be spent to reduce carbon emissions.
I appreciate you doing some math here to try to estimate the most cost effective way to achieve CO2 reduction. I tend to think 'strong' hybrid upgrades on most cars (that get significant mpg improvement, not mild hybrids) tend to cost more than $2k. I think if they cost that little, many people would get them without a subsidy.

That said, the goal of EV subsidies (in general) is not to sell more EVs in 2022 and the next several years, and reduce CO2 over the next 15-20 years, it is to 'pull forward' the EV adoptions curve by several years, and spurring demand that will lead to makers to make more EVs in the next few years (and more EV models as you mentioned). Since the cost of the batteries and EV tech is still falling quickly according to a learning curve, this will have the effect of reducing the TCO of these future models, so that organic adoption (not subsidy driven) will also be pulled forward.

HEVs are already mature tech, and not very successful in the US market (i.e. flat/falling sales numbers). Their maturity suggests that selling more won't reduce their costs, and won't lead to increased future (subsidy free) adoption.
Toyota Camry, $25945 MSRP, 28/39 MPG
Toyota Camry Hybrid, $28080 MSRP, 51/53 MPG

I got these from Toyota’s website. The price differential is $1k to $4k depending on the model. I agree that people probably would upgrade to hybrid anyways so there is no point in adding a subsidy.
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d0gerz
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by d0gerz »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:52 pm
Atomic wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:11 pm Little late to the thread, here is my experience. I had a 2008 Toyota Matrix that I initially liked but had grown to hate. In 2018 I upgraded to the 2015 Nissan Leaf.
I drive about 12k/yr and expected to save money on gas, but I didn't appreciate how much I would save until I got into it a bit. Here are the factors that lead to increased savings: 1) My utility offers a time of use rate that is very cheap, at 4.4 cents per kWh. 2) Since it's cheaper to operate than our other car, a Honda Fit, we actually put even more miles on the electric, raising the annual average mileage to over 15k. 3)this one is weird, but once I was on the EV rate tier, the utility let's relatively minor loads meter under the same tier. Suddenly my AC was 1/2 price. I have since electrified my water heater, added my furnace fan and an air source heat pump to that tier. I can't quantify all the savings, but it feels significant.
Holy Cow! 4.4 cents a kWHr? Can I run an extension cord to my house and I'll give you a dime a kWHr? The recent couple weeks of record high temps here in New England, running our central air at 30 cents a kWHr is going to hurt when the bill comes in. So much easier in the winter to do something about it, burning more firewood in our central wood furnace.

At that kind of price, I can see how an EV is such a good proposal, even if the purchase price is high. I'm still looking for a car and have driven both sides. Most recently, an Audi e tron GT, which I really liked. But I think I'm going to show my wife a Cadillac Ct4-V Blackwing as its not much more than half the price of the Audi. I've mentioned all my gas cost savings already, so I won't repeat it.
Is the 30 cents per kWH your total effective rate ie total billed $/kWH usage? I ask because on my last bill (I'm in Metrowest Boston with Eversource) the 'Generation Service Charge' is 17.5c/kWH, but when I add on the half a dozen other charges like distribution charge, transmission charge, etc., in total it becomes an effective rate of around 33c/kWH.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Valuethinker »

billaster wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 7:04 pm Given car makers can't build EVs as fast as they can sell them these days, there's really no reason for subsidies at this point. It would be better to spend all the money on electrical infrastructure and charging stations.
This is a policy point so consider forum rules.

I would happen to agree with you. In the UK EV subsidies are now only available for the lowest price vehicles. I still see plenty of Teslas - I think it was the number 2 selling car in the UK in 2021 (correction: one of the Tesla models was the number 2 selling model).

The subsidy saved is going towards EV charging infrastructure. Which is getting better but is still inadequate, especially for non-Tesla EV owners.

We both know that any legislation that comes out of the tortuous US Federal government system is likely to be a combination of unholy compromises. There's no scope for "ideal" public policy.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Valuethinker »

just frank wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 4:29 pm

I also charge my BEV automatically at night, so much of my energy comes from legacy nukes versus gas plants that ramp up during the day.
This is absolutely the key. It is the *marginal* kwhr not the average, that one uses in charging one's EV.

A (California) complication is the "Duck Curve". There is now so much solar (if utility-scale it comes out as "solar output" if domestic PV it often is "behind the meter" generation and is recorded simply as a reduction in demand (I believe)) that CA has a power production peak from noon-4pm and then a steep rise in electricity prices as the solar output drops up (just when demand picks up).

It's actually better in CA (from a system perspective) for solar PV to point west rather than south. Increasing output of those late afternoon kwhr.

So the optimal strategy in CA, and increasingly in TX (depending which transmission area you live in), would be to charge 12-4pm and then again after say 10pm (depending on what the Air Conditioning load is).

If one is at home during the day, the strategy of having a domestic PV installation & home charging may be even better. US domestic PV costs are high (2x Australia, I read a few years ago, which is now the world leader in domestic PV installations - I think I read 25% of all homes?) for a variety of institutional reasons (fragmented market & permitting etc). Also the US has a very well developed leasing market, and to me that has a host of problems for a homeowner.

A new gizmo here uses your home PV (my colleague managed a 10kw installation, I really don't know how the utility allowed him to do that) to heat up a thermal store tank (NOT using water, but some phase change material). He has hot water underfloor heating so this works quite well. Since his main heat source is oil heating, it's an enormous cost saving.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by hunoraut »

gougou wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:52 pm Even if we pretend BEVs don't emit any CO2, that $7.5k is still more than the $6k.
Why do we need to pretend anything?

We know how much is emitted in manufacturing (largely similar).
We know how much is emitted directly in operations (none).
We know how much is emitted in the energy-sourcing chain (because we know the aggregate mix of energy).

There's no black box to the mathematics behind it.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by stoptothink »

billaster wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 7:04 pm Given car makers can't build EVs as fast as they can sell them these days, there's really no reason for subsidies at this point. It would be better to spend all the money on electrical infrastructure and charging stations.
Not to derail this thread further, but I doubt a single person here would disagree.
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just frank
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

stoptothink wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:33 am
billaster wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 7:04 pm Given car makers can't build EVs as fast as they can sell them these days, there's really no reason for subsidies at this point. It would be better to spend all the money on electrical infrastructure and charging stations.
Not to derail this thread further, but I doubt a single person here would disagree.
I understand the sentiment, but the situation is a little more complicated.

As someone who has been following the EV market for a dozen years now, I would have to state that all is not as it appears. The dark secret is not that EVs are secretly terrible for the environment, its that the production volume historically (and currently) has been miniscule. Supply and demand are both closely linked (I think we will all agree). The price of batteries was a significant limit in the past (and could only be improved by production via a learning curve). There weren't a pile of unsold BEVs sitting around for the last 10 years and there aren't now. Instead, subsidies (and legacy makers accepting low profits on low production volumes) have enabled a LOW level of demand at the heavily (fed and legacy maker) subsidized price. And the legacy makers have built to match that low level of demand.

So subsidies historically have been key for propping up the historical (low) level of demand. This was the 'compliance car' era, with other effects from carbon and mpg trading due to California and Fed regulations.

For all those years, many EV fans were saying, IF ONLY Nissan would make 5X as many LEAFs, or GM 5X as many Volts (or later, Bolts) then they would sell and EVs would hit the tipping point for mass adoption. I think the demand was indeed higher than the supply that whole time. But the fact of the matter was that batteries were too expensive then, and if the makers had tried to up the volume at that time, they would've blown out existing subsidies, saturated the carbon credit system, and then demand would've fallen (due to the higher effective price). IOW, the makers knew how much volume could be sold with the historical subsidies (not too many) and just matched that.

Tesla is a special case that could'n't afford to lose money on each car, so they went after the luxury market, raised a lot of capital with good PR, and banked lots of carbon credits too. And they 'promised' to sell economy cars (the $35k Model 3)... and then they never did! Bc it wasn't profitable at that time.

So until fairly recently, it would be fair to say that EVs WERE vapor-ware. They ONLY made sense financially as super luxury cars or as heavily subsidized (and low profit) economy cars. They could NOT replace ICE cars in the economy market (or SUVs or pickups) on a level playing field.

So is this a case of govt waste, or corporate mismanagement funding a bunch of silly vehicles with taxpayer dollars? Nope.

And the answer to that is learning curve. Like the exponentially falling price of solar PV, the prices of EV batteries have been falling exponentially for the last 15 years. Like an 80% drop since the LEAF was launched in 2010. And if there hadn't been an (artificial) market for those batteries, that price fall would not have happened. It was no the result of Research in a lab. It was the result of Development in a factory and testing in the field.

Historical subsidies lead to the Development of the current generation of EVs which are just at the tipping point as ICE replacements (of small cars) without subsidies and historical average gasoline and electricity costs, in terms of TCO. We are NOT quite yet at the unsubsidized tipping point for pickups and SUVs. Earlier in the thread, all the cost per mile calcs and TCO estimates for small EVs versus ICE cars were coming out CLOSE. This doesn't mean the 2022 EVs are vapor-ware, or a marginal technology. It signifies that the EV car has arrived at its tipping point.

But the future belongs to EVs bc batteries are STILL GETTING CHEAPER. They still cost a significant multiple of their materials costs (which sets the floor price, ofc). And the flip side of the learning curve, is that continued exponential cost declines REQUIRE continued exponential rise in production volume to materialize. So if market forces lead to the current sales volume to be flat, the rate of battery price reductions would slow down. And then it might take 5-10 years to get a SUV/pickup tipping point. But if subsidies can keep an exponential adoption curve going, then we will get to the tipping point for heavier vehicles much sooner.

And it is the arrival at the battery cost tipping point that has all the makers scaling EV production now, and not 5 years ago. They have no choice, because they can see the battery price projections that EV drivetrains will become cheaper than ICE drivetrains, across the market over the next 5-10 years. If they don't switch, they will go bankrupt. Its not them all jumping on a green bandwagon, or shopping for subsidies (which it was 5-10 years ago). Now its existential.

RE Subsidies, they will increase demand. Increased demand will lead to makers building more EVs. Building more will lead to cheaper batteries and EVs (learning curve). And that will feed back to increasing EV demand on the front. This is a 'virtuous cycle' termed the 'Green Vortex'. Subsidies make the Vortex spin faster, pulling forward the US and global EV adoption curves. (in the process reducing cumulative CO2 emissions before 2050)

If a subsidy at this time was announced that lasted only a year, I would agree that it would be a total waste... people would pocket the money, and the makers would make the same number of cars. However, if a subsidy lasts a decade, then that will alter production planning at the makers upwards, driving the Vortex.
Last edited by just frank on Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:10 am, edited 2 times in total.
Valuethinker
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Valuethinker »

just frank wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:42 am
If a subsidy at this time was announced that lasted only a year, I would agree that it would be a total waste... people would pocket the money, and the makers would make the same number of cars. However, if a subsidy lasts a decade, then that will alter production planning at the makers upwards, driving the Vortex.
Thank you for a very good explanation of Learning Curve effects as they apply to EVs.

Some insights which I had not considered. Germany, and then China, did something similar in solar PV. Increase market size until huge economies of scale kicked in.

National strategies can differ. There won't be significant learning curve for the volumes that make up the UK car market. We can't "move the needle" on our own. On the other hand, targeted subsidies for location of battery manufacturers, car plants etc can be made to work.

There are a lot of EV models coming. Right now the problem is making them fast enough to meet soaring world demand. 20% UK sales are EVs (not sure if that include PHEVs ie plug in hybrids). China something similar (and I think that is straight EVs).
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by gougou »

hunoraut wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:23 am
gougou wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:52 pm Even if we pretend BEVs don't emit any CO2, that $7.5k is still more than the $6k.
Why do we need to pretend anything?

We know how much is emitted in manufacturing (largely similar).
We know how much is emitted directly in operations (none).
We know how much is emitted in the energy-sourcing chain (because we know the aggregate mix of energy).

There's no black box to the mathematics behind it.
Well then the numbers look even worse for BEV. The price to upgrade an ICE to a Hybrid is $2k and that eliminates 1/3 of the emissions of an ICE. The price to upgrade an ICE to an EV by putting in a 75KWH battery is probably around $10K to $15K, and that eliminates the emissions of < 1 ICE. If the society has limited amount of money to reduce the most emissions, it’s pretty obvious where you would put that money.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
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just frank
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

Indeed, to a certain extent Learning curves are a global phenomenon, related to cumulative global production. Individual makers can get their cost ahead of others based on their experience, but since it is easy to reverse engineer commercial technology (with a teardown), competitors can usually copy your cost savings tricks.

In this learning curve picture, there are advantages to being a late adopter (you buy cheaper tech), and penalties for being a very early adopter (with very high subsidies). In solar PV, Japan had a huge $$$ solar rollout before Germany, which spent a huge amount of money and yielded rather little solar (bc of still high prices). The German PV story was similar, and its costs made the whole project unpopular (or so I have read). The cheap solar PV being rolled out in the US today (where subsidies are far lower than those earlier ones) was effectively made possible by Japanese and German subsidies which long ago got phased out!

At a national level, a government can also make industrial policy and national security decisions. It can decide to subsidize local producers to develop a new domestic industry (say PV production) or to retool existing industries (like helping ICE makers become EV makers to avoid disruption).

You could suppose that a govt would NOT worry about having a domestic PV supply in terms of national security, but it WOULD worry about the ability to produce light vehicles domestically as a national security issue.

The key here is TIMING, not striking too early, and 'right-sizing' the subsidy to get the desired effect without blowing too much money. The modeling of these learning and adoption curves is quiet sophisticated these days, since there is a lot of data out there for other tech. The PV subsidy in the US has been much more cost effective (and scalable) than those years ago in Germany and Japan... and our high solar penetration (and popularity) shows it.
cmr79
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

gougou wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:47 am
hunoraut wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:23 am
gougou wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:52 pm Even if we pretend BEVs don't emit any CO2, that $7.5k is still more than the $6k.
Why do we need to pretend anything?

We know how much is emitted in manufacturing (largely similar).
We know how much is emitted directly in operations (none).
We know how much is emitted in the energy-sourcing chain (because we know the aggregate mix of energy).

There's no black box to the mathematics behind it.
Well then the numbers look even worse for BEV. The price to upgrade an ICE to a Hybrid is $2k and that eliminates 1/3 of the emissions of an ICE. The price to upgrade an ICE to an EV by putting in a 75KWH battery is probably around $10K to $15K, and that eliminates the emissions of < 1 ICE. If the society has limited amount of money to reduce the most emissions, it’s pretty obvious where you would put that money.
Your comment would be accurate if you were talking about a PHEV with a 75 kWh battery, but those don't exist to my knowledge. When comparing to a pure BEV, you omit that the BEV cuts the internal combustion engine itself along with a number of other systems related to the engine and exhaust management. If you are going to evaluate the incremental cost of the larger BEV battery vs the hybrid, you need to factor in those decreased costs from not having a second propulsion system.
psteinx
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by psteinx »

What's the performance (acceleration, handling, etc.) delta, generally, among the 4 major categories?

Pure ICE
Hybrid
Plug-In Hybrid
Pure Electric?

My understanding was that Hybrids (i.e. original Prius) generally had weak performance relative to ICE. Tesla famously flipped the standard with a high-performance EV. But what's the norm across these categories?
gougou
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by gougou »

cmr79 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:29 am
gougou wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:47 am
hunoraut wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:23 am
gougou wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:52 pm Even if we pretend BEVs don't emit any CO2, that $7.5k is still more than the $6k.
Why do we need to pretend anything?

We know how much is emitted in manufacturing (largely similar).
We know how much is emitted directly in operations (none).
We know how much is emitted in the energy-sourcing chain (because we know the aggregate mix of energy).

There's no black box to the mathematics behind it.
Well then the numbers look even worse for BEV. The price to upgrade an ICE to a Hybrid is $2k and that eliminates 1/3 of the emissions of an ICE. The price to upgrade an ICE to an EV by putting in a 75KWH battery is probably around $10K to $15K, and that eliminates the emissions of < 1 ICE. If the society has limited amount of money to reduce the most emissions, it’s pretty obvious where you would put that money.
Your comment would be accurate if you were talking about a PHEV with a 75 kWh battery, but those don't exist to my knowledge. When comparing to a pure BEV, you omit that the BEV cuts the internal combustion engine itself along with a number of other systems related to the engine and exhaust management. If you are going to evaluate the incremental cost of the larger BEV battery vs the hybrid, you need to factor in those decreased costs from not having a second propulsion system.
The fact is people are reluctant to buy EVs even though the government pays you $7500 + state subsidy for each EV. That’s enough to upgrade 3+ ICEs to Hybrids which will immediately cut carbon emissions of more than one ICE.

If I can find an EV that has 300+ miles of range and fast charging network that only costs $10K more than a comparable ICE I would be OK buying the EV. So it appears the upgrade to EV costs even more than the cost of the battery pack.

I can easily find a Hybrid that has 300+ miles of range that only costs $2k to $3k more than a comparable ICE.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
cmr79
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

gougou wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:30 am
cmr79 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:29 am
gougou wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:47 am
hunoraut wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:23 am
gougou wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:52 pm Even if we pretend BEVs don't emit any CO2, that $7.5k is still more than the $6k.
Why do we need to pretend anything?

We know how much is emitted in manufacturing (largely similar).
We know how much is emitted directly in operations (none).
We know how much is emitted in the energy-sourcing chain (because we know the aggregate mix of energy).

There's no black box to the mathematics behind it.
Well then the numbers look even worse for BEV. The price to upgrade an ICE to a Hybrid is $2k and that eliminates 1/3 of the emissions of an ICE. The price to upgrade an ICE to an EV by putting in a 75KWH battery is probably around $10K to $15K, and that eliminates the emissions of < 1 ICE. If the society has limited amount of money to reduce the most emissions, it’s pretty obvious where you would put that money.
Your comment would be accurate if you were talking about a PHEV with a 75 kWh battery, but those don't exist to my knowledge. When comparing to a pure BEV, you omit that the BEV cuts the internal combustion engine itself along with a number of other systems related to the engine and exhaust management. If you are going to evaluate the incremental cost of the larger BEV battery vs the hybrid, you need to factor in those decreased costs from not having a second propulsion system.
The fact is people are reluctant to buy EVs even though the government pays you $7500 + state subsidy for each EV. That’s enough to upgrade 3+ ICEs to Hybrids which will immediately cut carbon emissions of more than one ICE.

If I can find an EV that has 300+ miles of range and fast charging network that only costs $10K more than a comparable ICE I would be OK buying the EV. So it appears the upgrade to EV costs even more than the cost of the battery pack.

I can easily find a Hybrid that has 300+ miles of range that only costs $2k to $3k more than a comparable ICE.
The devil is in the details, isn't it? What is "comparable"? I addressed this several hundred posts ago in this thread and pointed out a few vehicles that are available from the same brands with essentially identical trim packages. One, the BMW i4 edrive40, has almost identical performance as well to its ICE variant, the 430i. It has 300+ miles of range from its 81kWh battery and can add more than 100 miles in ten minutes from a capable DC fast charger. The i4 is prices at exactly $10k MSRP above the 440i.

Does the location of fast charging stations around you (or more specifically, where you need to travel frequently for longer trips) qualify as "convenient" enough for this to be an option? Only you can answer that, and for everyone this is going to be a highly personal and non-generalizable determination.

I'm not suggesting that because the i4 might fit the criteria you just outlined that this is the best car for you--I have no idea if you have any interest in a $55k luxury performance sedan. I'm just pointing out that the price differential for a truly comparable EV continues to narrow. The argument about whether the more economical Leaf or Bolt being cheaper than comparable economy ICE or hybrid vehicles recently after tax credits should also illustrate that point--I think it would be unreasonable to argue that either of those vehicles are priced to have a $10-15k premium over comparable ICE vehicles before tax credits.
psteinx
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by psteinx »

cmr79 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:13 pmOne, the BMW i4 edrive40, has almost identical performance as well to its ICE variant, the 430i. It has 300+ miles of range from its 81kWh battery and can add more than 100 miles in ten minutes from a capable DC fast charger. The i4 is prices at exactly $10k MSRP above the 440i.
$10K before any incentives?

Eligible for the $7.5K fed incentive?

A $2.5K increment for an otherwise identical EV with 300+ miles of range seems pretty compelling.

$10K is a lot more iffy. Yes, I realize that lifetime cost of ownership (i.e. cheaper fuel, etc.) narrows the lifetime gap. But the issues associated with charging/range anxiety/road trips are a serious drawback for a lot of folks (including me).

Also, in the current environment, degrading from a Tesla with it's charging network + software to a non-Tesla EV magnifies the charging penalty. Maybe in 5 years, that'll be a much less significant issue.
mervinj7
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by mervinj7 »

gougou wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:30 am The fact is people are reluctant to buy EVs even though the government pays you $7500 + state subsidy for each EV. That’s enough to upgrade 3+ ICEs to Hybrids which will immediately cut carbon emissions of more than one ICE.
I think that's highly dependent on the locale one lives in. I don't know anybody in my immediate circle of friends who is reluctant to buy an EV. I just did a quick informal survey of my coworkers. Out of the 22 of us, 15 already own one or more EVs or plug-in hybrids. Clearly I understand that the Bay Area, CA is an unique bubble but at the end of the day 40% of all EVs sold in America will end in CA even though we only have 10% of the population.
The most difficult and stressing issue for most of us is lack of availability across the board for most models. For those on this specific thread who have any sort of hesitation of getting an EV, just don't bother. Ignore all of the futile discussions above. At least for now, there isn't enough supply to meet current demand and I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Also, a gentle reminder that discussing pending legislation and/or government policies is not permitted by forum rules. Some folks are really pushing to get this thread locked. You can discuss the effects of the policies on the individual but not the reasoning/correctness/shortcomings etc.
cmr79
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

psteinx wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:37 pm
cmr79 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:13 pmOne, the BMW i4 edrive40, has almost identical performance as well to its ICE variant, the 430i. It has 300+ miles of range from its 81kWh battery and can add more than 100 miles in ten minutes from a capable DC fast charger. The i4 is prices at exactly $10k MSRP above the 440i.
$10K before any incentives?

Eligible for the $7.5K fed incentive?

A $2.5K increment for an otherwise identical EV with 300+ miles of range seems pretty compelling.

$10K is a lot more iffy. Yes, I realize that lifetime cost of ownership (i.e. cheaper fuel, etc.) narrows the lifetime gap. But the issues associated with charging/range anxiety/road trips are a serious drawback for a lot of folks (including me).

Also, in the current environment, degrading from a Tesla with it's charging network + software to a non-Tesla EV magnifies the charging penalty. Maybe in 5 years, that'll be a much less significant issue.
Yes. i4 MSRP is $55,900. 440i MSRP is $45,900. BMW is currently eligible for the $7500 tax credit.

The closest BMW dealership to me has an i4 that I could go buy today, though it is the higher M50 model...so I imagine that realizing the current tax credit is not entirely theoretical.

Range anxiety and DCFC infrastructure are very real issues, but they are very localized and individualized as well. I almost never drive distances beyond 300 miles round-trip where I don't spend the night somewhere I would be able to charge. A better DCFC network would be on the "nice to have" list for me, but not a necessity. If/when we go to an all-EV household, my opinion on that will change greatly...but we are probably at least 2-3 years away from considering that, and a lot might change with charging infrastructure in that time.
billaster
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

gougou wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:30 am The fact is people are reluctant to buy EVs even though the government pays you $7500 + state subsidy for each EV.
You will have to define your meaning of "people." EV makers are selling every car they can make right now and the pre-order waiting lists are in the hundreds of thousands. There are certainly some people who are reluctant, but all of the evidence is that the percentage of EV cars sold each year is rapidly rising and "reluctance" is diminishing.
stoptothink
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by stoptothink »

billaster wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:08 pm
gougou wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:30 am The fact is people are reluctant to buy EVs even though the government pays you $7500 + state subsidy for each EV.
You will have to define your meaning of "people." EV makers are selling every car they can make right now and the pre-order waiting lists are in the hundreds of thousands. There are certainly some people who are reluctant, but all of the evidence is that the percentage of EV cars sold each year is rapidly rising and "reluctance" is diminishing.
That's the case with pretty much all cars right now.
psteinx
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by psteinx »

stoptothink wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:13 pm
billaster wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:08 pm
gougou wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:30 am The fact is people are reluctant to buy EVs even though the government pays you $7500 + state subsidy for each EV.
You will have to define your meaning of "people." EV makers are selling every car they can make right now and the pre-order waiting lists are in the hundreds of thousands. There are certainly some people who are reluctant, but all of the evidence is that the percentage of EV cars sold each year is rapidly rising and "reluctance" is diminishing.
That's the case with pretty much all cars right now.
My understanding is that, prior to the car shortage crisis of the last ~2 years, no car maker had any real "hits" with EVs, *except* Tesla.
hunoraut
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by hunoraut »

gougou wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:30 am The fact is people are reluctant to buy EVs even though the government pays you $7500 + state subsidy for each EV.
That is absolutely not a fact.

The fact is, people are buying more battery-powered cars, and fewer combustion cars. The market share for EVs have been sequentially increasing, at the expense of combustion. Within the battery class, EVs have grown quicker relative to hybrids.
billaster
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

stoptothink wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:13 pm
billaster wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 1:08 pm
gougou wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:30 am The fact is people are reluctant to buy EVs even though the government pays you $7500 + state subsidy for each EV.
You will have to define your meaning of "people." EV makers are selling every car they can make right now and the pre-order waiting lists are in the hundreds of thousands. There are certainly some people who are reluctant, but all of the evidence is that the percentage of EV cars sold each year is rapidly rising and "reluctance" is diminishing.
That's the case with pretty much all cars right now.
That has been true since before the chip shortage. There is no sign of reluctance to buy up every EV the makers can build.
psteinx
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by psteinx »

billaster wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:56 pm That has been true since before the chip shortage. There is no sign of reluctance to buy up every EV the makers can build.
Again, which maker, OTHER than Tesla, had big, pure EV sales successes, pre-chip shortage?
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just frank
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

psteinx wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:11 pm
billaster wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:56 pm That has been true since before the chip shortage. There is no sign of reluctance to buy up every EV the makers can build.
Again, which maker, OTHER than Tesla, had big, pure EV sales successes, pre-chip shortage?
During that period ALL legacy makers were only making 'compliance cars' whose small sales volume was limited to fit available subsidies and incentives, not limited by buyer demand. Think of it as a 'beta-testing' phase. Many of those compliance cars ended up in California, but I saw tons of them here in my HCOL area, being used as second cars and commuters.

That period, due to the falling prices of batteries is now over. Several non-Tesla models have long back-ordered reservation/deposit lists (akin to what Tesla had years ago). And the legacy makers are now scaling manufacturing themselves, rather than perviously making tiny volumes and contracting out much of the work.
billaster
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by billaster »

psteinx wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:11 pm
billaster wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:56 pm That has been true since before the chip shortage. There is no sign of reluctance to buy up every EV the makers can build.
Again, which maker, OTHER than Tesla, had big, pure EV sales successes, pre-chip shortage?
I realize that, thanks to all the Musk hype and self-promotion, many people think Tesla invented electric cars. The fact is that Nissan had already sold over 400,000 EVs while Tesla was still trying to figure out how to cobble together a few Model 3s in a circus tent. And the Chevy Bolt was the second largest seller of EVs in 2017, only a couple thousand behind the Model S.
stoptothink
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by stoptothink »

billaster wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:36 pm
psteinx wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:11 pm
billaster wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:56 pm That has been true since before the chip shortage. There is no sign of reluctance to buy up every EV the makers can build.
Again, which maker, OTHER than Tesla, had big, pure EV sales successes, pre-chip shortage?
I realize that, thanks to all the Musk hype and self-promotion, many people think Tesla invented electric cars. The fact is that Nissan had already sold over 400,000 EVs while Tesla was still trying to figure out how to cobble together a few Model 3s in a circus tent. And the Chevy Bolt was the second largest seller of EVs in 2017, only a couple thousand behind the Model S.
And that supports your statement how :confused Nissan and Chevrolet certainly have not been able to sell every EV they made until the supply chain crisis.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Jack FFR1846 »

d0gerz wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:44 pm Is the 30 cents per kWH your total effective rate ie total billed $/kWH usage? I ask because on my last bill (I'm in Metrowest Boston with Eversource) the 'Generation Service Charge' is 17.5c/kWH, but when I add on the half a dozen other charges like distribution charge, transmission charge, etc., in total it becomes an effective rate of around 33c/kWH.
Bill came in the mail today and indeed, the cost has gone up. The bill makes life easy. Here's numbers for math people:

$612.49
1881 kWHr actual use

$0.32561935 per kWHr

I'm in Middlesex county (metrowest) and with Eversource.

For people using some average cost, I'd recommend you look at your electric bill. It's really fun, especially with a month of high temperatures, work at home and AC use. I did expect this highest I've ever seen bill.

I also am seeing gas prices go down. So how many hundred years to break even now?
Bogle: Smart Beta is stupid
mervinj7
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by mervinj7 »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:58 pm
d0gerz wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:44 pm Is the 30 cents per kWH your total effective rate ie total billed $/kWH usage? I ask because on my last bill (I'm in Metrowest Boston with Eversource) the 'Generation Service Charge' is 17.5c/kWH, but when I add on the half a dozen other charges like distribution charge, transmission charge, etc., in total it becomes an effective rate of around 33c/kWH.
Bill came in the mail today and indeed, the cost has gone up. The bill makes life easy. Here's numbers for math people:

$612.49
1881 kWHr actual use

$0.32561935 per kWHr

I'm in Middlesex county (metrowest) and with Eversource.

For people using some average cost, I'd recommend you look at your electric bill. It's really fun, especially with a month of high temperatures, work at home and AC use. I did expect this highest I've ever seen bill.

I also am seeing gas prices go down. So how many hundred years to break even now?
Maybe seven years to break even on solar. Though MA has some generous subsidies.
Oh wait, wrong thread.
:twisted:
cmr79
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:58 pm
d0gerz wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:44 pm Is the 30 cents per kWH your total effective rate ie total billed $/kWH usage? I ask because on my last bill (I'm in Metrowest Boston with Eversource) the 'Generation Service Charge' is 17.5c/kWH, but when I add on the half a dozen other charges like distribution charge, transmission charge, etc., in total it becomes an effective rate of around 33c/kWH.
Bill came in the mail today and indeed, the cost has gone up. The bill makes life easy. Here's numbers for math people:

$612.49
1881 kWHr actual use

$0.32561935 per kWHr

I'm in Middlesex county (metrowest) and with Eversource.

For people using some average cost, I'd recommend you look at your electric bill. It's really fun, especially with a month of high temperatures, work at home and AC use. I did expect this highest I've ever seen bill.

I also am seeing gas prices go down. So how many hundred years to break even now?
$0.169 in suburban mid-Atlantic based on my bill due next week. Shopping electricity rates today, I could cut that to $0.154 (assuming fees and customer charges remain the same, which would only be true on a per kWh basis if my usage also remained constant), but I currently pay a bit more for 100% green generation. Also waiting on my residential solar installation, which is still held up in the permitting process...
gougou
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by gougou »

cmr79 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:13 pm
gougou wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:30 am
cmr79 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:29 am
gougou wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:47 am
hunoraut wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 7:23 am

Why do we need to pretend anything?

We know how much is emitted in manufacturing (largely similar).
We know how much is emitted directly in operations (none).
We know how much is emitted in the energy-sourcing chain (because we know the aggregate mix of energy).

There's no black box to the mathematics behind it.
Well then the numbers look even worse for BEV. The price to upgrade an ICE to a Hybrid is $2k and that eliminates 1/3 of the emissions of an ICE. The price to upgrade an ICE to an EV by putting in a 75KWH battery is probably around $10K to $15K, and that eliminates the emissions of < 1 ICE. If the society has limited amount of money to reduce the most emissions, it’s pretty obvious where you would put that money.
Your comment would be accurate if you were talking about a PHEV with a 75 kWh battery, but those don't exist to my knowledge. When comparing to a pure BEV, you omit that the BEV cuts the internal combustion engine itself along with a number of other systems related to the engine and exhaust management. If you are going to evaluate the incremental cost of the larger BEV battery vs the hybrid, you need to factor in those decreased costs from not having a second propulsion system.
The fact is people are reluctant to buy EVs even though the government pays you $7500 + state subsidy for each EV. That’s enough to upgrade 3+ ICEs to Hybrids which will immediately cut carbon emissions of more than one ICE.

If I can find an EV that has 300+ miles of range and fast charging network that only costs $10K more than a comparable ICE I would be OK buying the EV. So it appears the upgrade to EV costs even more than the cost of the battery pack.

I can easily find a Hybrid that has 300+ miles of range that only costs $2k to $3k more than a comparable ICE.
The devil is in the details, isn't it? What is "comparable"? I addressed this several hundred posts ago in this thread and pointed out a few vehicles that are available from the same brands with essentially identical trim packages. One, the BMW i4 edrive40, has almost identical performance as well to its ICE variant, the 430i. It has 300+ miles of range from its 81kWh battery and can add more than 100 miles in ten minutes from a capable DC fast charger. The i4 is prices at exactly $10k MSRP above the 440i.

Does the location of fast charging stations around you (or more specifically, where you need to travel frequently for longer trips) qualify as "convenient" enough for this to be an option? Only you can answer that, and for everyone this is going to be a highly personal and non-generalizable determination.

I'm not suggesting that because the i4 might fit the criteria you just outlined that this is the best car for you--I have no idea if you have any interest in a $55k luxury performance sedan. I'm just pointing out that the price differential for a truly comparable EV continues to narrow. The argument about whether the more economical Leaf or Bolt being cheaper than comparable economy ICE or hybrid vehicles recently after tax credits should also illustrate that point--I think it would be unreasonable to argue that either of those vehicles are priced to have a $10-15k premium over comparable ICE vehicles before tax credits.
The most popular compact car sold in US is Honda Civic with $22K MSRP. I don’t think there’s an EV with 300 miles of range that only costs $32K before subsidy.

The most popular SUV in the US is Toyota RAV4 with $27K MSRP. Again there’s no EUV costing $37K with 300 miles of range.

So you are not going to get a comparable EV for just $10K more than the ICE.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
cmr79
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

gougou wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:37 pm
cmr79 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 12:13 pm
gougou wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:30 am
cmr79 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 10:29 am
gougou wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 9:47 am

Well then the numbers look even worse for BEV. The price to upgrade an ICE to a Hybrid is $2k and that eliminates 1/3 of the emissions of an ICE. The price to upgrade an ICE to an EV by putting in a 75KWH battery is probably around $10K to $15K, and that eliminates the emissions of < 1 ICE. If the society has limited amount of money to reduce the most emissions, it’s pretty obvious where you would put that money.
Your comment would be accurate if you were talking about a PHEV with a 75 kWh battery, but those don't exist to my knowledge. When comparing to a pure BEV, you omit that the BEV cuts the internal combustion engine itself along with a number of other systems related to the engine and exhaust management. If you are going to evaluate the incremental cost of the larger BEV battery vs the hybrid, you need to factor in those decreased costs from not having a second propulsion system.
The fact is people are reluctant to buy EVs even though the government pays you $7500 + state subsidy for each EV. That’s enough to upgrade 3+ ICEs to Hybrids which will immediately cut carbon emissions of more than one ICE.

If I can find an EV that has 300+ miles of range and fast charging network that only costs $10K more than a comparable ICE I would be OK buying the EV. So it appears the upgrade to EV costs even more than the cost of the battery pack.

I can easily find a Hybrid that has 300+ miles of range that only costs $2k to $3k more than a comparable ICE.
The devil is in the details, isn't it? What is "comparable"? I addressed this several hundred posts ago in this thread and pointed out a few vehicles that are available from the same brands with essentially identical trim packages. One, the BMW i4 edrive40, has almost identical performance as well to its ICE variant, the 430i. It has 300+ miles of range from its 81kWh battery and can add more than 100 miles in ten minutes from a capable DC fast charger. The i4 is prices at exactly $10k MSRP above the 440i.

Does the location of fast charging stations around you (or more specifically, where you need to travel frequently for longer trips) qualify as "convenient" enough for this to be an option? Only you can answer that, and for everyone this is going to be a highly personal and non-generalizable determination.

I'm not suggesting that because the i4 might fit the criteria you just outlined that this is the best car for you--I have no idea if you have any interest in a $55k luxury performance sedan. I'm just pointing out that the price differential for a truly comparable EV continues to narrow. The argument about whether the more economical Leaf or Bolt being cheaper than comparable economy ICE or hybrid vehicles recently after tax credits should also illustrate that point--I think it would be unreasonable to argue that either of those vehicles are priced to have a $10-15k premium over comparable ICE vehicles before tax credits.
The most popular compact car sold in US is Honda Civic with $22K MSRP. I don’t think there’s an EV with 300 miles of range that only costs $32K before subsidy.

The most popular SUV in the US is Toyota RAV4 with $27K MSRP. Again there’s no EUV costing $37K with 300 miles of range.

So you are not going to get a comparable EV for just $10K more than the ICE.
I think your last line should read "So you are not going to get a comparable EV with more than 300 miles of range within a few thousand dollars of a comparable entry-level compact sedan or SUV without some sort of subsidy, yet."
hunoraut
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by hunoraut »

psteinx wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:11 pm
billaster wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:56 pm That has been true since before the chip shortage. There is no sign of reluctance to buy up every EV the makers can build.
Again, which maker, OTHER than Tesla, had big, pure EV sales successes, pre-chip shortage?
The claim is EV demand exceeds supply.

Pre-pandemic, the Hyundai/Kia twin had an order waitlist on their battery cars.
psteinx
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by psteinx »

hunoraut wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 1:46 am
psteinx wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:11 pm
billaster wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:56 pm That has been true since before the chip shortage. There is no sign of reluctance to buy up every EV the makers can build.
Again, which maker, OTHER than Tesla, had big, pure EV sales successes, pre-chip shortage?
The claim is EV demand exceeds supply.

Pre-pandemic, the Hyundai/Kia twin had an order waitlist on their battery cars.
With significant production?

It's easy to get a wait list if you only make 5 or 10 thousand cars of a given type.

But hit models sell in the hundreds of thousands - produced and in customers' hands...
hunoraut
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by hunoraut »

billaster wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:36 pm I realize that, thanks to all the Musk hype and self-promotion, many people think Tesla invented electric cars. The fact is that Nissan had already sold over 400,000 EVs while Tesla was still trying to figure out how to cobble together a few Model 3s in a circus tent.
Tesla popularized and legitimized real passenger-carrying, distance-driving, electric cars as cars, instead of novelties.

There have been electric vehicles for decades, but mostly miniature micro city-class.

Nissans first ‘legitimate’ series production passenger electric car is the Leaf. It had 24kwh battery, 110hp, and ~100mi range (if you count that as legitimate). They sold 50 of them by year end 2010.

That same time, Tesla had already sold 1000+ 250hp 200mi range Roadsters.

By 2015, Teslas Model S was outselling the Leaf on annual basis. It had 300+ hp and 250mi+ range. The Leaf was still on 100mi.
cmr79
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by cmr79 »

psteinx wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 1:52 am
hunoraut wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 1:46 am
psteinx wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:11 pm
billaster wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:56 pm That has been true since before the chip shortage. There is no sign of reluctance to buy up every EV the makers can build.
Again, which maker, OTHER than Tesla, had big, pure EV sales successes, pre-chip shortage?
The claim is EV demand exceeds supply.

Pre-pandemic, the Hyundai/Kia twin had an order waitlist on their battery cars.
With significant production?

It's easy to get a wait list if you only make 5 or 10 thousand cars of a given type.

But hit models sell in the hundreds of thousands - produced and in customers' hands...
What specifically is the definition of "significant production" or a "hit model"? These seem like subjective things. The Toyota Camry seems like a hit to me as the best seller in the US for ~2 decades, but someone partial to the 1970s domestic auto market may argue that the ~300,000 Camrys sold in the US per year signify neither a hit model nor significant production compared to the Oldsmobile Cutlass, which used to sell >500,000 per year in the US.

I would suggest, in my own subjective definition, that a successful relatively new vehicle is one that can be sold by an automaker with enough profit (either current or expected in the future) while still generating enough demand in consumers to warrant year over year growth in production/sales numbers. A successful relatively mature vehicle generated enough ongoing sales and profit to maintain its market share and ensure the automaker continues to update and refresh the model rather than discontinuing and replacing it. The Camry is a mature, successful vehicle. Most EVs are relatively new and would fall better in the first category. Comparing a new, more premium-weighted (at least currently) segment of the automotive market to arbitrary success benchmarks of the highest-volume mature technology vehicles of the last several decades seems misguided. I mean, Ferrari seems successful enough despite only producing 8,400 cars per year...maybe success means something different to them vs Toyota as well?
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just frank
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:58 pm
d0gerz wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:44 pm Is the 30 cents per kWH your total effective rate ie total billed $/kWH usage? I ask because on my last bill (I'm in Metrowest Boston with Eversource) the 'Generation Service Charge' is 17.5c/kWH, but when I add on the half a dozen other charges like distribution charge, transmission charge, etc., in total it becomes an effective rate of around 33c/kWH.
Bill came in the mail today and indeed, the cost has gone up. The bill makes life easy. Here's numbers for math people:

$612.49
1881 kWHr actual use

$0.32561935 per kWHr

I'm in Middlesex county (metrowest) and with Eversource.

For people using some average cost, I'd recommend you look at your electric bill. It's really fun, especially with a month of high temperatures, work at home and AC use. I did expect this highest I've ever seen bill.

I also am seeing gas prices go down. So how many hundred years to break even now?
I'm getting that you are really upset about your electric rates. But New England, MA especially is a HIGHLY unusual market...

[Political comments removed by admin LadyGeek]

The whole rest of the country (west of the Hudson) is FLUSH with cheap gas. Shale oil produces nat gas as a byproduct, and more gas / barrel of oil as the deposit ages. We are so full of the stuff, we are building LNG export terminals just to get rid of it all.

40% of US electricity is made by dirt cheap nat gas. And results in dirt cheap kWh prices in the US (outside New England, NYC metro, HI and California).

The folks elsewhere in the US are not misreading their bills, Jack. I'm a couple states over from you, in a city on the east coast that is bigger and more congested than Boston, and my (Excelon) power is 7.6 cents/kWh for generation and 7.5 cents for transmission. Total 15.1 cents/kWh retail, no TOU plan or whatever. A couple years ago it was closer to 13 cents. If I switched to TOU, it would be 4.4 cents all in from midnight to 6AM, but I can't be bothered to switch.

You yankees are getting robbed. Y'all should talk to someone about it.
smitcat
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by smitcat »

just frank wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 9:26 am
Jack FFR1846 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:58 pm
d0gerz wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:44 pm Is the 30 cents per kWH your total effective rate ie total billed $/kWH usage? I ask because on my last bill (I'm in Metrowest Boston with Eversource) the 'Generation Service Charge' is 17.5c/kWH, but when I add on the half a dozen other charges like distribution charge, transmission charge, etc., in total it becomes an effective rate of around 33c/kWH.
Bill came in the mail today and indeed, the cost has gone up. The bill makes life easy. Here's numbers for math people:

$612.49
1881 kWHr actual use

$0.32561935 per kWHr

I'm in Middlesex county (metrowest) and with Eversource.

For people using some average cost, I'd recommend you look at your electric bill. It's really fun, especially with a month of high temperatures, work at home and AC use. I did expect this highest I've ever seen bill.

I also am seeing gas prices go down. So how many hundred years to break even now?
I'm getting that you are really upset about your electric rates. But New England, MA especially is a HIGHLY unusual market...

[Political comments removed by admin LadyGeek]

The whole rest of the country (west of the Hudson) is FLUSH with cheap gas. Shale oil produces nat gas as a byproduct, and more gas / barrel of oil as the deposit ages. We are so full of the stuff, we are building LNG export terminals just to get rid of it all.

40% of US electricity is made by dirt cheap nat gas. And results in dirt cheap kWh prices in the US (outside New England, NYC metro, HI and California).

The folks elsewhere in the US are not misreading their bills, Jack. I'm a couple states over from you, in a city on the east coast that is bigger and more congested than Boston, and my (Excelon) power is 7.6 cents/kWh for generation and 7.5 cents for transmission. Total 15.1 cents/kWh retail, no TOU plan or whatever. A couple years ago it was closer to 13 cents. If I switched to TOU, it would be 4.4 cents all in from midnight to 6AM, but I can't be bothered to switch.

You yankees are getting robbed. Y'all should talk to someone about it.
Good to hear - someone familiar with that relative area. How accurate is this article about large problems on longer trips with EV's?


https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/i- ... 313e8f85ba
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just frank
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

smitcat wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 9:40 am
Good to hear - someone familiar with that relative area. How accurate is this article about large problems on longer trips with EV's?


https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/i- ... 313e8f85ba
I took a 1100 mile road trip in my Bolt two weeks ago, detailing my process upthread. I specified how I used ABRP to find optimal stops, and then other apps to verify that they were working.

I read the article, and I agree and disagree.

Agree:
There ARE DCFC' dead zones' (areas of fewer DCFCs) in the US. If you wanted to do (short) roadtrips in a non-Tesla EV, you should download PlugShare and ABRP (both are free) and play around with different destinations to determine how many DCFCs stations (and stalls) are on your routes. IF there aren't a lot of big stations with lots of stalls, wait a couple years. :) My trip was all along I-95, so I had lots of options (I only used EA for the record) just a mile (or in one case 2) from HW route I would've taken in an ICE car. Both there and return trips got rerouted due to traffic around NYC, adding mileage, which was not a problem bc I had set up ABRP to carry enough buffer range.

For another example, near me, Southern NJ is a DCFC dead-zone. And I like to drive to the shore/beach down there... a major 'use case' for me. Turns out (in the summer anyway) my Bolt can make the round trip to my fave beach with 40+ miles to spare. Energy cost for 200 miles: $8. No DCFC needed.

I recently went on an 4 night trip all the way down to Cape May NJ. That is out of bounds, plus we drove around a lot sight-seeing down there. I ended up doing overnight L1 charging at my airbnb which covered our noodling around (50 miles/day). And found an L2 a 15 minute walk away. So I did a two hour L2 charge the morning we left (while my kids were asleep), and 'got my steps in' (walking 30 minutes total). Some might see this as a HUGE hassle, I didn't.

Disagree:
I would point out that **Appalachia**, no offense, IS low on DCFCs. I just put the author's route into ABRP (took 30 seconds) and I got a route that said would add 2 hours charging on a 7 hour drive. One stop was a bit over an hour (so you could plan a meal there). Not the end of the world. At all.

Despite crossing a dead zone (worst case on the East Coast IMO) there were multiple DCFC options on the route that I could choose from. I'm too lazy to do that here, but if I were making the drive, I would spend 5-10 minutes checking out the stations.

The author picked a site with a singe DCFC. That is a newb error. He trusted that it would be on-line, and he **planned** to arrive there on fumes. That was not a good decision.

Bottom line: I consider this to be like folks making a back country hike, not bringing water or a map, and figuring they can use their phone if they get lost or need info/help. They then get lost in a place with no cell reception and have a situation/drama. This does NOT mean that that hiking path is dangerous... just that people do silly/undertrained mistakes.

---------

Epilogue for the return leg of my 1100 mile trip: I did the same app thing, and planned to have lunch (and an hour charge) at an EA station in Waterford CT. When I arrived, 4 of the 6 stalls were taken (lunch rush?) and all 6 were rated on-line. So I plugged into one of the open ones... and got 25 kW, versus the 50 kW that I expected (and have gotten everywhere else). I debated switching to the other open stall...unsure if the problem was the stall or my car. I was hungry, so I elected to stay put, and was 50 miles short of my expectation when we were done (early) with lunch. We could've sat there for 30 minutes to get to target, or tried another stall (which had all opened up). But I was in the mood to drive (not many amenities at that station), found anther station down the road, and charged 15 minutes there.

So, in my 1100 mile road trip in the same car, I had one problem (charging half speed) at one station. This mishap (a technical fault of the DCFC) caused me no discomfort (bc I had lunch when/where I wanted anyway) and caused a total of 15-20 minutes delay versus my planned route.
Last edited by just frank on Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:44 am, edited 3 times in total.
mervinj7
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by mervinj7 »

Jack FFR1846 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:58 pm
d0gerz wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:44 pm Is the 30 cents per kWH your total effective rate ie total billed $/kWH usage? I ask because on my last bill (I'm in Metrowest Boston with Eversource) the 'Generation Service Charge' is 17.5c/kWH, but when I add on the half a dozen other charges like distribution charge, transmission charge, etc., in total it becomes an effective rate of around 33c/kWH.
Bill came in the mail today and indeed, the cost has gone up. The bill makes life easy. Here's numbers for math people:

$612.49
1881 kWHr actual use

$0.32561935 per kWHr

I'm in Middlesex county (metrowest) and with Eversource.

For people using some average cost, I'd recommend you look at your electric bill. It's really fun, especially with a month of high temperatures, work at home and AC use. I did expect this highest I've ever seen bill.

I also am seeing gas prices go down. So how many hundred years to break even now?
I was only half joking earlier. Have you considered solar? In terms of usage, last month was also a peak month for us with work at home, high AC usage, and predominantly using our EV for trips. However, our electricity bill was still less than $10.
smitcat
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by smitcat »

just frank wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:31 am
smitcat wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 9:40 am
Good to hear - someone familiar with that relative area. How accurate is this article about large problems on longer trips with EV's?


https://www.msn.com/en-us/autos/news/i- ... 313e8f85ba
I took a 1100 mile road trip in my Bolt two weeks ago, detailing my process upthread. I specified how I used ABRP to find optimal stops, and then other apps to verify that they were working.

I read the article, and I agree and disagree.

Agree:
There ARE DCFC' dead zones' (areas of fewer DCFCs) in the US. If you wanted to do (short) roadtrips in a non-Tesla EV, you should download PlugShare and ABRP (both are free) and play around with different destinations to determine how many DCFCs stations (and stalls) are on your routes. IF there aren't a lot of big stations with lots of stalls, wait a couple years. :) My trip was all along I-95, so I had lots of options (I only used EA for the record) just a mile (or in one case 2) from HW route I would've taken in an ICE car. Both there and return trips got rerouted due to traffic around NYC, adding mileage, which was not a problem bc I had set up ABRP to carry enough buffer range.

For another example, near me, Southern NJ is a DCFC dead-zone. And I like to drive to the shore/beach down there... a major 'use case' for me. Turns out (in the summer anyway) my Bolt can make the round trip to my fave beach with 40+ miles to spare. Energy cost for 200 miles: $8. No DCFC needed.

I recently went on an 4 night trip all the way down to Cape May NJ. That is out of bounds, plus we drove around a lot sight-seeing down there. I ended up doing overnight L1 charging at my airbnb which covered our noodling around (50 miles/day). And found an L2 a 15 minute walk away. So I did a two hour L2 charge the morning we left (while my kids were asleep), and 'got my steps in' (walking 30 minutes total). Some might see this as a HUGE hassle, I didn't.

Disagree:
I would point out that **Appalachia**, no offense, IS low on DCFCs. I just put the author's route into ABRP (took 30 seconds) and I got a route that said would add 2 hours charging on a 7 hour drive. One stop was a bit over an hour (so you could plan a meal there). Not the end of the world. At all.

Despite crossing a dead zone (worst case on the East Coast IMO) there were multiple DCFC options on the route that I could choose from. I'm too lazy to do that here, but if I were making the drive, I would spend 5-10 minutes checking out the stations.

The author picked a site with a singe DCFC. That is a newb error. He trusted that it would be on-line, and he **planned** to arrive there on fumes. That was not a good decision.

Bottom line: I consider this to be like folks making a back country hike, not bringing water or a map, and figuring they can use their phone if they get lost or need info/help. They then get lost in a place with no cell reception and have a situation/drama. This does NOT mean that that hiking path is dangerous... just that people do silly/undertrained mistakes.

---------

Epilogue for the return leg of my 1100 mile trip: I did the same app thing, and planned to have lunch (and an hour charge) at an EA station in Waterford CT. When I arrived, 4 of the 6 stalls were taken (lunch rush?) and all 6 were rated on-line. So I plugged into one of the open ones... and got 25 kW, versus the 50 kW that I expected (and have gotten everywhere else). I debated switching to the other open stall...unsure if the problem was the stall or my car. I was hungry, so I elected to stay put, and was 50 miles short of my expectation when we were done (early) with lunch. We could've sat there for 30 minutes to get to target, or tried another stall (which had all opened up). But I was in the mood to drive (not many amenities at that station), found anther station down the road, and charged 15 minutes there.

So, in my 1100 mile road trip in the same car, I had one problem (charging half speed) at one station. This mishap (a technical fault of the DCFC) caused me no discomfort (bc I had lunch when/where I wanted anyway) and caused a total of 15-20 minutes delay versus my planned route.
Thanks for the summary it is helpful to hear about the current status. It's not really time for us yet ...
gougou
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by gougou »

mervinj7 wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 10:35 am
Jack FFR1846 wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:58 pm
d0gerz wrote: Thu Aug 11, 2022 10:44 pm Is the 30 cents per kWH your total effective rate ie total billed $/kWH usage? I ask because on my last bill (I'm in Metrowest Boston with Eversource) the 'Generation Service Charge' is 17.5c/kWH, but when I add on the half a dozen other charges like distribution charge, transmission charge, etc., in total it becomes an effective rate of around 33c/kWH.
Bill came in the mail today and indeed, the cost has gone up. The bill makes life easy. Here's numbers for math people:

$612.49
1881 kWHr actual use

$0.32561935 per kWHr

I'm in Middlesex county (metrowest) and with Eversource.

For people using some average cost, I'd recommend you look at your electric bill. It's really fun, especially with a month of high temperatures, work at home and AC use. I did expect this highest I've ever seen bill.

I also am seeing gas prices go down. So how many hundred years to break even now?
I was only half joking earlier. Have you considered solar? In terms of usage, last month was also a peak month for us with work at home, high AC usage, and predominantly using our EV for trips. However, our electricity bill was still less than $10.
So now you need to spend an extra 10s of thousands dollars to make your own fuel if you want to buy an EV? That’s not cheap at all. Maybe I want to put my 10s of thousands dollars in VTI instead.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
Californiastate
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Californiastate »

:deadhorse
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just frank
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by just frank »

Californiastate wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 11:27 am :deadhorse
I agree. My main point here is that the 'metrics' for EVs are getting better rapidly. The main metic is that cost has been coming down rapidly, purchase and TCO. ICE cars, and even HEVs are mature technology, whose metrics and prices are essentially fixed.

Some Bogleheads have looked at EVs and taken the plunge, others have not. We can't say that it is all about some being 'eco-minded' or others 'EV skeptics'.

But the rapid rate of change means that you need to watch this space. What EVs were like 5 or even 3 years ago, or the market was like before 2021 is ancient history and no longer relevant. If you don't think the current EV space is for you in 2022, in a few years you will probably think differently.

The current makers of ICE vehicles around the world appear to agree with this assessment. They clearly know the car market, the technology and can project the future market better than any of us can.
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Re: Overall savings between Gas, Hybrid and EV vehicles

Post by Valuethinker »

psteinx wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 1:52 am
hunoraut wrote: Sat Aug 13, 2022 1:46 am
psteinx wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 3:11 pm
billaster wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:56 pm That has been true since before the chip shortage. There is no sign of reluctance to buy up every EV the makers can build.
Again, which maker, OTHER than Tesla, had big, pure EV sales successes, pre-chip shortage?
The claim is EV demand exceeds supply.

Pre-pandemic, the Hyundai/Kia twin had an order waitlist on their battery cars.
With significant production?

It's easy to get a wait list if you only make 5 or 10 thousand cars of a given type.

But hit models sell in the hundreds of thousands - produced and in customers' hands...
3 years ago I would see one Tesla a week. Perhaps a smaller EV about as often.

Now I walk by a parked Tesla every day (not always the same one). And see several EVs a day.

Pre 2020 and 2022 are just not like-for-like comparable. EVs have dramatically changed in that time period in terms of broader range of models and greater performance. Catching up to Tesla.

People are not buying EVs because they can't buy other cars. They are buying EVs because they want an EV. If they wanted another ICE car, they'd buy another car of another model.

EVs are 20% of new car sales (in the UK). Note for cars over £20k there is no subsidy for EVs in the UK. And the subsidy below that is £2,500 from memory.

We are "crossing the chasm" from the prototype customers to the "early adopters".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crossing_the_Chasm

There are far more models of EV available - despite production restrictions. Performance in terms of range is much greater.
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