Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Non-investing personal finance issues including insurance, credit, real estate, taxes, employment and legal issues such as trusts and wills.
Topic Author
RetiredInTheWest
Posts: 93
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:43 pm

Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by RetiredInTheWest »

We have a cruise booked for the end of this year on one of the cruise lines owned by Carnival. The family has been looking forward to it for a long time. We've made a deposit that we can get back if we cancel by September, but after that it has to be paid in full. However, since it's over 21 days since we first booked the cruise, it's apparently too late to buy travel insurance to cover Carnival bankruptcy.

Carnival stock has dropped from around $50/share to around $9/share. They've taken on a ton of debt (over $30B) that I doubt they'll be able to recover from, particularly with skyrocketing fuel costs and a weakening economy. Last quarter they lost $1.8B. They have about $7.5B cash on hand. Recently Morgan Stanley suggested the stock could go to $0 (some might ask why it isn't at zero already).

At the rate they're burning cash, if the economy becomes worse I think it's possible they would have to file this winter, but we'd probably make it under the wire. Plus I doubt it would be chapter 7. More likely a reorganization under chapter 11 (think airlines of past years). The business might continue to operate.

The family (and I) would really like to take this cruise. Strong emotions vs. obvious risk. A recent quote from their CFO really bothers me: "And remember, vacations are no longer a luxury, they're a necessity in today's world."

Uh oh.

I guess we have until September to decide. Would you insure it as best as possible and go, assuming it'll probably be ok? Or bail and do something else you don't like quite as well? Thanks for any opinions!
quietseas
Posts: 901
Joined: Fri Dec 27, 2013 3:43 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by quietseas »

RetiredInTheWest wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 7:08 pm I guess we have until September to decide.
This, wait until a few days before you have to decide to get your money back.
User avatar
FreddieFIRE
Posts: 826
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2021 11:49 am

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by FreddieFIRE »

You have until the day before the cruise to decide. Just cancel before final payment due and sit back and watch. In many cases, the cruise can be rebooked a week or two before the sailing, sometimes at much cheaper prices. Of course, the reverse could also happen.
A house and a job. Once the American dream. Two things I'll never again have. Life is simple (and good).
jebmke
Posts: 25476
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 2:44 pm
Location: Delmarva Peninsula

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by jebmke »

If you put this on a credit card, check the terms on claiming against the card. A friend of mine had a tour group go under and the card reimbursed him 100% because he made a claim within 60 days of learning that the tour company reneged on the claim. You may have some rights against the card if and when the company goes under.
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
123
Posts: 10416
Joined: Fri Oct 12, 2012 3:55 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by 123 »

If space is still being sold on the cruise in your desired category cancel your existing reservation and then re-book and get the travel insurance. Hopefully the travel insurance you select will not be associated with Carnival.
The closest helping hand is at the end of your own arm.
delamer
Posts: 17458
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 5:13 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by delamer »

You are overthinking this. Ceasing to operate is a lot different than a reorganization or a falling stock price.

I don’t understand why the CFO’s statement would affect your thinking. Do you think he’d say that people should not cruise, but rather conserve their funds because a recession is coming?
One thing that humbles me deeply is to see that human genius has its limits while human stupidity does not. - Alexandre Dumas, fils
59Gibson
Posts: 1386
Joined: Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:41 am

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by 59Gibson »

I'd wait it out.
What's the worst that can happen..the company goes BK and cuts employees. I'm sure the kitchen staff can steer the boat and still prepare food. Heehee.
joechristmas
Posts: 122
Joined: Tue Nov 17, 2015 9:02 am

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by joechristmas »

If you want to take this trip take it. If you want to cancel it, cancel it. This is not that difficult.
Even if there is a filing of some kind, and that’s a big if, but if there is it won’t impact your cruise.
Also what’s the most a cruise can cost anyway? $10k? Who cares.
RMO87
Posts: 263
Joined: Fri Jan 18, 2008 8:11 am
Location: Kansas City, MO

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by RMO87 »

I leave for a Carnival cruise in six days. Carnival, and all cruise lines, have been struggling since the pandemic began. Carnival has more debt than Royal Caribbean and Norwegian, but has more cash on hand than the others. i am not worried one bit. Go and enjoy your cruise!

From a recent post on the boards at cruisecritic.com:

The last quarterly reports had Carnival as cash flow positive for the quarter, meaning they covered operating cost plus debt interest. It is a nice start towards recovery.

The main future difficulty is the ability and cost to refinance their current debt at an affordable interest rate. It is likely they may have to issue more equity (stock) to reduce the debt which will result in lower stock price.
Last edited by RMO87 on Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:47 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Fpdesignco
Posts: 302
Joined: Fri Jan 14, 2022 9:30 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by Fpdesignco »

jebmke wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 7:47 pm If you put this on a credit card, check the terms on claiming against the card. A friend of mine had a tour group go under and the card reimbursed him 100% because he made a claim within 60 days of learning that the tour company reneged on the claim. You may have some rights against the card if and when the company goes under.
From a pure chargeback perspective you usually have 90 days after the transaction posts. I luckily was in this window when Covid happened and my travel agency went under.

It is worth checking if the card you booked on has underlying travel insurance outside of the chargeback window.
michaelscott
Posts: 70
Joined: Sat Jun 25, 2022 9:33 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by michaelscott »

What’s to worry about? Worst case scenario, insure the trip with a decent travel insurance policy and check the specifications to be sure it covers bankruptcy or dissolution of the travel provider. But the odds of Carnival both going under and no longer honoring existing bookings later this year? Seems pretty low to me. Enjoy your vacation.
User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 13116
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by whodidntante »

I guess you could short the stock to hedge :twisted:
User avatar
snackdog
Posts: 3102
Joined: Wed Nov 12, 2014 3:57 am
Location: PNW

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by snackdog »

whodidntante wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:21 pm I guess you could short the stock to hedge :twisted:
If I was shorting I would cancel and encourage everyone I could to do the same…
BH Consumer FAQ: | Car? Used Toyota, Lexus or Miata. | House? 20% down and 3x salary. | Vacation house? No. | Umbrella? $1 million. | Goods? Costco.
User avatar
whodidntante
Posts: 13116
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 10:11 pm
Location: outside the echo chamber

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by whodidntante »

snackdog wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:47 pm
whodidntante wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 11:21 pm I guess you could short the stock to hedge :twisted:
If I was shorting I would cancel and encourage everyone I could to do the same…
But then the short would be naked, not a hedge. This is a family site. :P
Cruise
Posts: 2750
Joined: Mon Nov 21, 2016 6:17 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by Cruise »

123 wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:08 pm If space is still being sold on the cruise in your desired category cancel your existing reservation and then re-book and get the travel insurance. Hopefully the travel insurance you select will not be associated with Carnival.
+1

No way one ever purchases insurance from a cruise line. Try Tripinsurancestore.
curmudgeon
Posts: 2630
Joined: Thu Jun 20, 2013 11:00 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by curmudgeon »

I would have some definite hesitation in investing in Carnival or another cruise line/conglomerate, but I wouldn't fret too much about near term cruises. I wouldn't be keen on booking a year or more in advance, at least not if it involved a large deposit. If I had a cruise cancelled out from under me, I'd also require a direct full refund rather than taking "Future Cruise Credits", even if the FCC was for a boosted face value. Deposits and payments directly for a cruise not delivered would have significantly better standing in credit card chargeback than FCC. I view FCC as essentially turning you into an unsecured lender to the cruise line.

I agree that the cruise lines have had to take on a ton of debt to get through Covid, but they were in pretty solid shape prior after some very good years. Rising interest rates may make it tough to service the debt, and it wouldn't amaze me to see a restructuring at some point over the next couple of years, but I'd expect cruise operations to continue. There was a failure by the small Crystal Cruises line recently, but they were part of an over-extended (and opaquely funded) private consortium rather than a public company.
User avatar
yatesd
Posts: 1040
Joined: Sun Nov 03, 2013 7:19 am
Location: MD

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by yatesd »

We just returned from a fantastic Spain Intensive cruise on Azamara 2-weeks ago. Personally, I would keep my reservation.

I tend to be a contrarian, but I purchased this cruise during Black Friday, 2020 with a “can’t lose options”, cancel, rebook at same price following year if cancelled, or get a 125% future cruise credit. We took advantage of the ability to move to the following year, completely different itinerary, but added another day for free. It worked out extremely well for us, Full crew, but slightly less full ship, service was better than a 1:1 ratio.

I want to also comment on the “Petri dish” concern. I personally like regular exposure to germs to maintain healthy anti-bodies, and can assure you my level of exposure was much higher at the grocery store yesterday, on the plane, at the airport, visiting old palaces & churches in tight spaces, etc. Not all cruises are the same….and some of these mega cruise ships probably increase exposure, but keep in mind on the ship, I am with the same people/crew the whole time and everyone has been double vaccinated. Not the same assurance at a large store if that matters to you.

I think this is a unique opportunity to get a cruise at a reasonable price, with fuel costs I am already seeing higher prices for 2023/2024.
User avatar
yatesd
Posts: 1040
Joined: Sun Nov 03, 2013 7:19 am
Location: MD

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by yatesd »

I’ll also add that we needed a negative proctored test to board (which hope they eliminate soon), and Azamara was sold to private equity after I signed up for the cruise. We had an outstanding time!
jebmke
Posts: 25476
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 2:44 pm
Location: Delmarva Peninsula

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by jebmke »

Fpdesignco wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:30 pm
jebmke wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 7:47 pm If you put this on a credit card, check the terms on claiming against the card. A friend of mine had a tour group go under and the card reimbursed him 100% because he made a claim within 60 days of learning that the tour company reneged on the claim. You may have some rights against the card if and when the company goes under.
From a pure chargeback perspective you usually have 90 days after the transaction posts. I luckily was in this window when Covid happened and my travel agency went under.

It is worth checking if the card you booked on has underlying travel insurance outside of the chargeback window.
I’ve never really looked because I don’t do this type of transaction. I do know that this particular one was many months in advance and the credit card reimbursed him 100%.
Don't trust me, look it up. https://www.irs.gov/forms-instructions-and-publications
User avatar
CenTexan
Posts: 440
Joined: Wed Jun 07, 2017 8:02 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by CenTexan »

Start discussing alternative trips now. See if anything ends up appealing to the group between now and September. Make final decision a few days before your cancellation deadline (many other might be calling and it is sometimes hard to get a rep on the line). Don't fall for the "let us keep your deposit amount and give you an incentive credit" deal - get the cash back.
ScubaHogg
Posts: 3573
Joined: Sun Nov 06, 2011 2:02 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by ScubaHogg »

123 wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:08 pm If space is still being sold on the cruise in your desired category cancel your existing reservation and then re-book and get the travel insurance. Hopefully the travel insurance you select will not be associated with Carnival.
+1
“Conventional Treasury rates are risk free only in the sense that they guarantee nominal principal. But their real rate of return is uncertain until after the fact.” -Risk Less and Prosper
tibbitts
Posts: 23728
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 5:50 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by tibbitts »

ScubaHogg wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 9:16 am
123 wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:08 pm If space is still being sold on the cruise in your desired category cancel your existing reservation and then re-book and get the travel insurance. Hopefully the travel insurance you select will not be associated with Carnival.
+1
I never bought insurance from Carnival, only from one of the several travel insurance websites, but I'm not sure that cruise lines aren't just resellers of insurance, maybe with a package of features unique to them. So maybe the insurance actually comes from one of the usual travel insurance companies. Someone else will know.
Outer Marker
Posts: 4382
Joined: Sun Mar 08, 2009 8:01 am

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by Outer Marker »

RetiredInTheWest wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 7:08 pm ...I think it's possible they would have to file this winter, but we'd probably make it under the wire. Plus I doubt it would be chapter 7. More likely a reorganization under chapter 11 (think airlines of past years). The business might continue to operate.
This. If you're a shareholder or unsecured creditor, you might have reason to worry, but as a passenger, you're unlikely to be impacted. I wouldn't worry about it. I don't insure small risks that don't have life-altering consequences. Insurance is calculated to ensure the house always wins. If there's a real risk of loss of Carnival, no insurance agency is going to write a policy without an extremely high premium. If you're worried, just book a different cruise with a different company. A busted vacation is probably more problematic than the small financial loss.
tibbitts
Posts: 23728
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 5:50 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by tibbitts »

RetiredInTheWest wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 7:08 pm The family (and I) would really like to take this cruise. Strong emotions vs. obvious risk. A recent quote from their CFO really bothers me: "And remember, vacations are no longer a luxury, they're a necessity in today's world."

Uh oh.
Unless the price is much higher or the itinerary isn't available now, you could rebook and buy insurance.

But if that statement from a cruise line CFO bothers you in the least I think you're just looking for a reason to cancel, so in your case that's what I'd do. What would you expect a cruise line CFO to say? Maybe "vacations are the first luxury you should cut from your budget"?
User avatar
oldcomputerguy
Moderator
Posts: 17934
Joined: Sun Nov 22, 2015 5:50 am
Location: Tennessee

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by oldcomputerguy »

A disrespectful comment was removed. As a reminder, see: General Etiquette
At all times we must conduct ourselves in a respectful manner to other posters. Attacks on individuals, insults, name calling, trolling, baiting or other attempts to sow dissension are not acceptable.
There is only one success - to be able to spend your life in your own way. (Christopher Morley)
muddgirl
Posts: 364
Joined: Wed Aug 17, 2016 1:33 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by muddgirl »

The merchant rules for credit card chargebacks are pretty complex. I know that when a hawaiian airline went bankrupt in 2008, cancelling our honeymoon flight, we were able to do a chargeback despite being outside the typical 90 day window. I believe there are actually different timelines for different types of purchases.
Topic Author
RetiredInTheWest
Posts: 93
Joined: Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:43 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by RetiredInTheWest »

Great ideas posted - big thanks to everyone!

I think we'll keep the reservation until September. Then see another quarter's numbers to be comfortable. Then cancel and rebook if it we're worried, otherwise just keep it and insure it as possible elsewhere (definitely not through Carnival).
delamer
Posts: 17458
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 5:13 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by delamer »

RetiredInTheWest wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:22 am Great ideas posted - big thanks to everyone!

I think we'll keep the reservation until September. Then see another quarter's numbers to be comfortable. Then cancel and rebook if it we're worried, otherwise just keep it and insure it as possible elsewhere (definitely not through Carnival).
I agree with your plan to keep the reservation.

However, I wouldn’t be too confident that you’ll be able to rebook or find another line with openings in September for a cruise at the end of the year.
One thing that humbles me deeply is to see that human genius has its limits while human stupidity does not. - Alexandre Dumas, fils
Jeepergeo
Posts: 876
Joined: Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:33 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by Jeepergeo »

Cruising on a ship owned by a near bankrupt company sounds to me like a disaster waiting to happen.

If you go, be sure to attend the life jacket orientation and take plenty of Imodium with you.
tibbitts
Posts: 23728
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 5:50 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by tibbitts »

delamer wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:59 am
RetiredInTheWest wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:22 am Great ideas posted - big thanks to everyone!

I think we'll keep the reservation until September. Then see another quarter's numbers to be comfortable. Then cancel and rebook if it we're worried, otherwise just keep it and insure it as possible elsewhere (definitely not through Carnival).
I agree with your plan to keep the reservation.

However, I wouldn’t be too confident that you’ll be able to rebook or find another line with openings in September for a cruise at the end of the year.
Why wouldn't it be likely that cruises would be available then? As of my only post-Covid cruise a month ago, ships were at about 30-50% capacity, and my non-scientific observation was that a very high percentage of passengers were sick (whether with Covid or something else.)
tibbitts
Posts: 23728
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 5:50 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by tibbitts »

Jeepergeo wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 11:37 am Cruising on a ship owned by a near bankrupt company sounds to me like a disaster waiting to happen.

If you go, be sure to attend the life jacket orientation and take plenty of Imodium with you.
Wouldn't every mass-market cruise ship company be considered near bankruptcy, maybe except Disney?

My understanding is that all the traditional life jacket orientations have been eliminated to prevent passengers from crowding together.
User avatar
FreddieFIRE
Posts: 826
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2021 11:49 am

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by FreddieFIRE »

muddgirl wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:07 am The merchant rules for credit card chargebacks are pretty complex. I know that when a hawaiian airline went bankrupt in 2008, cancelling our honeymoon flight, we were able to do a chargeback despite being outside the typical 90 day window. I believe there are actually different timelines for different types of purchases.
When you pay for a service (i.e. travel), the clock starts at the date that the service was scheduled to be delivered, not when you paid for it.
A house and a job. Once the American dream. Two things I'll never again have. Life is simple (and good).
User avatar
ResearchMed
Posts: 16795
Joined: Fri Dec 26, 2008 10:25 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by ResearchMed »

FreddieFIRE wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 12:10 pm
muddgirl wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:07 am The merchant rules for credit card chargebacks are pretty complex. I know that when a hawaiian airline went bankrupt in 2008, cancelling our honeymoon flight, we were able to do a chargeback despite being outside the typical 90 day window. I believe there are actually different timelines for different types of purchases.
When you pay for a service (i.e. travel), the clock starts at the date that the service was scheduled to be delivered, not when you paid for it.

I've heard this somewhat frequently recently, and less frequently in the past.
Where is it written, in terms of card policies?

Thanks.

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 21282
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by HomerJ »

tibbitts wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 11:56 am
delamer wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:59 am
RetiredInTheWest wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:22 am Great ideas posted - big thanks to everyone!

I think we'll keep the reservation until September. Then see another quarter's numbers to be comfortable. Then cancel and rebook if it we're worried, otherwise just keep it and insure it as possible elsewhere (definitely not through Carnival).
I agree with your plan to keep the reservation.

However, I wouldn’t be too confident that you’ll be able to rebook or find another line with openings in September for a cruise at the end of the year.
Why wouldn't it be likely that cruises would be available then? As of my only post-Covid cruise a month ago, ships were at about 30-50% capacity, and my non-scientific observation was that a very high percentage of passengers were sick (whether with Covid or something else.)
We went on a Royal Caribbean cruise a month ago, and it was full. I certainly didn't notice a "very high" percentage of passengers being sick. But my observation is non-scientific as well, so who knows?

We all had to show a negative Covid test before boarding.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
smitcat
Posts: 13308
Joined: Mon Nov 07, 2016 9:51 am

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by smitcat »

HomerJ wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 12:44 pm
tibbitts wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 11:56 am
delamer wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:59 am
RetiredInTheWest wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:22 am Great ideas posted - big thanks to everyone!

I think we'll keep the reservation until September. Then see another quarter's numbers to be comfortable. Then cancel and rebook if it we're worried, otherwise just keep it and insure it as possible elsewhere (definitely not through Carnival).
I agree with your plan to keep the reservation.

However, I wouldn’t be too confident that you’ll be able to rebook or find another line with openings in September for a cruise at the end of the year.
Why wouldn't it be likely that cruises would be available then? As of my only post-Covid cruise a month ago, ships were at about 30-50% capacity, and my non-scientific observation was that a very high percentage of passengers were sick (whether with Covid or something else.)
We went on a Royal Caribbean cruise a month ago, and it was full. I certainly didn't notice a "very high" percentage of passengers being sick. But my observation is non-scientific as well, so who knows?

We all had to show a negative Covid test before boarding.
Similarly, we had a Royal cruise in Feb and again in late May. Both cruises were likely near full and no one we saw was sick on either cruise.
User avatar
FreddieFIRE
Posts: 826
Joined: Tue Aug 03, 2021 11:49 am

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by FreddieFIRE »

ResearchMed wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 12:24 pm
FreddieFIRE wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 12:10 pm
muddgirl wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:07 am The merchant rules for credit card chargebacks are pretty complex. I know that when a hawaiian airline went bankrupt in 2008, cancelling our honeymoon flight, we were able to do a chargeback despite being outside the typical 90 day window. I believe there are actually different timelines for different types of purchases.
When you pay for a service (i.e. travel), the clock starts at the date that the service was scheduled to be delivered, not when you paid for it.

I've heard this somewhat frequently recently, and less frequently in the past.
Where is it written, in terms of card policies?

Thanks.

RM
I was told this by my credit card company when I had this situation occur. My guess is that it is part of the US consumer protection laws that govern credit card transactions.
A house and a job. Once the American dream. Two things I'll never again have. Life is simple (and good).
bigbahamadada
Posts: 6
Joined: Tue Dec 30, 2014 2:56 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by bigbahamadada »

Even if they file, they will continue to operate. All debtors will be in alignment that operating will maximize return on their claims.

Somewhat tangentially, and for entertainment purposes only -- I will note that Carnival has a longstanding shareholder benefit for cruising passengers. If you hold 100 shares, they will issue a $100 per stateroom credit.

I've never used it, as I didn't like the prospects of the company back before COVID. And, more to the point, when the stock was in the $40-70 range it just seemed silly to take that exposure for $100 credit.

The stateroom credit offer appears to remain in place. And the amount hasn't changed despite the issuance of massive new number of shares and reduction in per share cost. Heck, if the stock continues to crater, it might even offset a significant part the cost of purchasing the shares.
Diluted Waters
Posts: 262
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:35 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by Diluted Waters »

RetiredInTheWest wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:22 am Great ideas posted - big thanks to everyone!

I think we'll keep the reservation until September. Then see another quarter's numbers to be comfortable. Then cancel and rebook if it we're worried, otherwise just keep it and insure it as possible elsewhere (definitely not through Carnival).
We are on a Carnival owned cruise line ship right now. It’s 50% full, very clean, quiet and functioning perfectly. Everyone had to show full vaccination AND booster AND a negative Covid test in order to board.

You can buy trip insurance from an independent insurance company (and you should) even now. It just won’t cover preexisting medical conditions. Go on the trip. Forget reading tea leaves. The anxiety will drag down the value of the trip when you go. If they go BK claim it on your insurance and try again another time.
delamer
Posts: 17458
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 5:13 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by delamer »

tibbitts wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 11:56 am
delamer wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:59 am
RetiredInTheWest wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 10:22 am Great ideas posted - big thanks to everyone!

I think we'll keep the reservation until September. Then see another quarter's numbers to be comfortable. Then cancel and rebook if it we're worried, otherwise just keep it and insure it as possible elsewhere (definitely not through Carnival).
I agree with your plan to keep the reservation.

However, I wouldn’t be too confident that you’ll be able to rebook or find another line with openings in September for a cruise at the end of the year.
Why wouldn't it be likely that cruises would be available then? As of my only post-Covid cruise a month ago, ships were at about 30-50% capacity, and my non-scientific observation was that a very high percentage of passengers were sick (whether with Covid or something else.)
The end-of-the-year holidays are a very high demand time for cruises. Your one cruise in early June isn’t predictive of holiday demand.

Normally, if you wait until September to try to book a cruise for that time period there won’t be much availability.

Obviously, if there is a Covid surge that might not be the case.
One thing that humbles me deeply is to see that human genius has its limits while human stupidity does not. - Alexandre Dumas, fils
tibbitts
Posts: 23728
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 5:50 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by tibbitts »

delamer wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 2:22 pm The end-of-the-year holidays are a very high demand time for cruises. Your one cruise in early June isn’t predictive of holiday demand.

Normally, if you wait until September to try to book a cruise for that time period there won’t be much availability.

Obviously, if there is a Covid surge that might not be the case.
The many spring cruises I've taken over the past decades have all been booked in the 90+% range. So I don't know what to expect for the coming holiday season. It's very different being on the ship with so few people; my guess is that Covid would have been a much bigger problem with the previously-typical numbers of passengers. Also most people had been fairly recently vaccinated, so it's possible that the practicality/popularity of holiday cruises will depend on the availability of a 5th (3rd or 4th for some people) dose of vaccine.
User avatar
snackdog
Posts: 3102
Joined: Wed Nov 12, 2014 3:57 am
Location: PNW

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by snackdog »

I remember flying with United during their bankruptcy. It was rough. International business class had no reading material and the same food trays as economy. The cabin staff were downright mean.
BH Consumer FAQ: | Car? Used Toyota, Lexus or Miata. | House? 20% down and 3x salary. | Vacation house? No. | Umbrella? $1 million. | Goods? Costco.
JediMisty
Posts: 917
Joined: Tue Aug 07, 2018 7:06 am
Location: Georgia

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by JediMisty »

snackdog wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:13 pm I remember flying with United during their bankruptcy. It was rough. International business class had no reading material and the same food trays as economy. The cabin staff were downright mean.
I stayed at a resort on a dive vacation with a dive group on the last week they were open before they closed for several months. They had been bought and we're remodeling. The staff were angry, the manager was MIA, there were several issues with the rooms which went unaddressed. The food was terrible - mostly reheated left-overs. Not a good experience.
User avatar
David Jay
Posts: 14587
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:54 am
Location: Michigan

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by David Jay »

curmudgeon wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 1:00 amI would have some definite hesitation in investing in Carnival...
Actually this is a perfect time to invest in 100 shares of CCL if you are a cruiser. The Carnival lines (Carnival, Holland America, Princess, Seabourn, Costa, Cunard and P&O) have a really good shareholder benefit plan and you can pick up the required 100 shares for less than $900.

This year alone I will get $750 of onboard credit from the CCL shareholder benefit.
It's not an engineering problem - Hersh Shefrin | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius
DIYtrixie
Posts: 384
Joined: Sun Sep 13, 2020 12:11 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by DIYtrixie »

David Jay wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:39 pm
curmudgeon wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 1:00 amI would have some definite hesitation in investing in Carnival...
Actually this is a perfect time to invest in 100 shares of CCL if you are a cruiser. The Carnival lines (Carnival, Holland America, Princess, Seabourn, Costa, Cunard and P&O) have a really good shareholder benefit plan and you can pick up the required 100 shares for less than $900.

This year alone I will get $750 of onboard credit from the CCL shareholder benefit.
What’s the difference between CCL and CUK??
User avatar
David Jay
Posts: 14587
Joined: Mon Mar 30, 2015 5:54 am
Location: Michigan

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by David Jay »

DIYtrixie wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 7:56 am
David Jay wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 8:39 pm
curmudgeon wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 1:00 amI would have some definite hesitation in investing in Carnival...
Actually this is a perfect time to invest in 100 shares of CCL if you are a cruiser. The Carnival lines (Carnival, Holland America, Princess, Seabourn, Costa, Cunard and P&O) have a really good shareholder benefit plan and you can pick up the required 100 shares for less than $900.

This year alone I will get $750 of onboard credit from the CCL shareholder benefit.
What’s the difference between CCL and CUK??
CCL is the US controlling company. CUK is an ADR for the British subsidiary Carnival PLC, i.e. C(arnival)UK
It's not an engineering problem - Hersh Shefrin | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius
bberris
Posts: 2420
Joined: Sun Feb 20, 2011 8:44 am

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by bberris »

snackdog wrote: Sun Jul 03, 2022 4:13 pm I remember flying with United during their bankruptcy. It was rough. International business class had no reading material and the same food trays as economy. The cabin staff were downright mean.
I'm guessing paper napkins, too.
bberris
Posts: 2420
Joined: Sun Feb 20, 2011 8:44 am

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by bberris »

delamer wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:45 pm You are overthinking this. Ceasing to operate is a lot different than a reorganization or a falling stock price.

I don’t understand why the CFO’s statement would affect your thinking. Do you think he’d say that people should not cruise, but rather conserve their funds because a recession is coming?
Crystal ceased operations mid cruise. No one would sell them fuel.

I agree with the idea to cancel now and rebook as late as possible if you still want to go.
delamer
Posts: 17458
Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 5:13 pm

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by delamer »

bberris wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:20 am
delamer wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:45 pm You are overthinking this. Ceasing to operate is a lot different than a reorganization or a falling stock price.

I don’t understand why the CFO’s statement would affect your thinking. Do you think he’d say that people should not cruise, but rather conserve their funds because a recession is coming?
Crystal ceased operations mid cruise. No one would sell them fuel.

I agree with the idea to cancel now and rebook as late as possible if you still want to go.
How is the Crystal experience relevant?

Bad things happen, but Crystal isn’t predictive of Carnival.
One thing that humbles me deeply is to see that human genius has its limits while human stupidity does not. - Alexandre Dumas, fils
stocknoob4111
Posts: 3509
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:52 am

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by stocknoob4111 »

why not cancel the Carnival cruise and book instead on Royal Caribbean? RCL seems a lot more sure footed.
bberris
Posts: 2420
Joined: Sun Feb 20, 2011 8:44 am

Re: Carnival Corporation - Cancel December Cruise or Go?

Post by bberris »

delamer wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 11:09 am
bberris wrote: Mon Jul 04, 2022 10:20 am
delamer wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:45 pm You are overthinking this. Ceasing to operate is a lot different than a reorganization or a falling stock price.

I don’t understand why the CFO’s statement would affect your thinking. Do you think he’d say that people should not cruise, but rather conserve their funds because a recession is coming?
Crystal ceased operations mid cruise. No one would sell them fuel.

I agree with the idea to cancel now and rebook as late as possible if you still want to go.
How is the Crystal experience relevant?

Bad things happen, but Crystal isn’t predictive of Carnival.
My point was that a bankrupt line can wish to continue operating and may be legally allowed to operate, but suppliers may make that impossible. I know Crystal and carnival are different.
Post Reply