Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

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Riprap
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Riprap »

Estimated value is present value of future earnings. Let's say current earnings of $205 drops by 20% to $165. The discount rate goes to 9% and the growth of earnings is 4%.

PV = Earnings/(discount rate - growth rate)

= 165/(.09-.04)

= 3,300
Mike Scott
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Mike Scott »

Mike Scott wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:26 pm S&P 2400 at end of year. I will chase it all the way down with a combo of automated monthly purchases intermingled with tax loss harvesting.
quoting myself... I managed to squeeze in a tax loss harvest fund exchange this afternoon. I would have done it yesterday but was out of touch for the day.

I do think the stock market is going to grind along with bounces up and down along the way with more down than up for a while. I don't personally think the economy is so bad but broadly speaking, confidence is low and all the stuff happening has people on edge. We may or may not be in recession but even talking about it has some negative effects. I don't have any dry powder but I do plan to stay fully invested for the ride.
barberakb
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by barberakb »

28,900
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like2read
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by like2read »

S&P 500 @ 3211

l2r
groomyface
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by groomyface »

Obviously, the bottom will be below the top.
mptfan
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by mptfan »

I think we already saw the S&P 500 bottom of 3,666 on June 16, 2022 and the market will stay above that level from this point forward.
CoffeeQID
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by CoffeeQID »

Well the intraday bottom was 666 during the GFC. Witching hour is between 3 and 4 am. So I'm going to guess the bottom is anywhere between 3000 and 4000.
rockstar
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by rockstar »

I heard 3100 on the radio yesterday.

Nobody knows. The data keeps coming in worse than folks expected. This isn't likely to change.
viveks
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by viveks »

3,333

Just keep buying doesn't matter how low it goes :sharebeer
jarjarM
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by jarjarM »

3242 - it's a guess :beer
visualguy
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by visualguy »

Low 3000s. We'll go back to pre-pandemic levels. Never understood the rise during the pandemic.
MichRoots
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by MichRoots »

SP500 at 3386 should be a solid floor as that was the pre-pandemic closing high. But I wouldn't be surprised if 3666 was the low about 10 days ago.
Ed 2
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Ed 2 »

S&P 500. 2700 :twisted:
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m@ver1ck
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by m@ver1ck »

I usually just look at a reasonable point before the pandemic, and tack on inflation. That's a 'fair' enough price. Anything low than that and it's a sale.
UpperNwGuy
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by UpperNwGuy »

I'm going to guess 3200.
JBTX
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by JBTX »

I have no idea and it will mostly be dependent on outside events - do we finally get through supply chain bottlenecks, what happens in Ukraine, does inflation trend back down or linger?

I tend to think this will be more protracted than usual due to the inflationary aspects and the inability of central banks to come to the rescue without causing inflation.

Just to hazard a guess I’ll put 2002.99 - with the anticipation the fed has to keep raising rates to deal with inflation and the market eventually loses faith. But who knows it could rally tomorrow.
WhiteMaxima
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by WhiteMaxima »

No one knows. Time in the market not to time the market. I DCA every two week pay period.
Ed 2
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Ed 2 »

Traditionally the bottom is when most of us stop guessing and get use to this drops . Then the recovery begins . I personally still see too many optimists. I remember back in 2008 - 2010 bear market if you tell someone that you invest in stocks they would think you are crazy. This is the sign of the bottom. Until then we see long road to go downstairs.
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AnnetteLouisan
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

Just to be a contrarian I’m going to reiterate my earlier vote of VTI at $181 and note that we already hit it a few weeks ago. I still think this mkt is now oversold. However my reasons are OT and it’s just a guess on my part.
Last edited by AnnetteLouisan on Fri Jul 01, 2022 5:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
rockstar
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by rockstar »

Ed 2 wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:34 pm Traditionally the bottom is when most of us stop guessing and get use to this drops . Then the recovery begins . I personally still see too many optimists. I remember back in 2008 - 2010 bear market if you tell someone that you invest in stocks they would think you are crazy. This is the sign of the bottom. Until then we see long road to go downstairs.
I'm not seeing the panic. Folks at work are still talking about buying the dip. There hasn't been enough pain yet.

Retail earnings for Q2 should be bad. And that should send us lower. Too much inventory is going to be a problem. And no one is prepared for it because economist are trained on the demand side of the equation, not the supply side. The metrics and data isn't easy to come by. It's not really on their radar.

Maybe 3100 is too optimistic. Maybe the panic sets in once we breach 3000.
gougou
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by gougou »

We already hit the bottom. Oil, gasoline and natural gas are going down which means inflation will be going down as well. Housing is softening and rent is pretty stable. So the Fed will stop hiking interest rates very soon.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
Ed 2
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Ed 2 »

rockstar wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:53 pm
Ed 2 wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:34 pm Traditionally the bottom is when most of us stop guessing and get use to this drops . Then the recovery begins . I personally still see too many optimists. I remember back in 2008 - 2010 bear market if you tell someone that you invest in stocks they would think you are crazy. This is the sign of the bottom. Until then we see long road to go downstairs.
I'm not seeing the panic. Folks at work are still talking about buying the dip. There hasn't been enough pain yet.

Retail earnings for Q2 should be bad. And that should send us lower. Too much inventory is going to be a problem. And no one is prepared for it because economist are trained on the demand side of the equation, not the supply side. The metrics and data isn't easy to come by. It's not really on their radar.

Maybe 3100 is too optimistic. Maybe the panic sets in once we breach 3000.
I wouldn’t take seriously predictions when S&P 500 will hit the bottom. Nobody knows nothin. Saying that, instead of guessing when market hit the bottom I can show what I have done so far to prepare for long bear market ( in my opinion) .
1. I tax lost harvested already
2. I increased my weekly DCA into fund’s VTSAX,VTIAX in my portfolio.
3. In other brokerage I started buying also weekly similar fund ETF’s ITOT and VT.
4. I double checked all my bills and cut some expenses already so extra money will go into my investments.
5. Lowered my expectations and stopped listening TV network , spending more time outdoors , doing exercise , running, fishing.
Good luck to all. Ed.
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22twain
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by 22twain »

I'ma go with 3141.59.

If we fall through that, then 2718.28.
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snackdog
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by snackdog »

Reversion to the long term trend would put the SP500 at 2800 or so.

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helloeveryone
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by helloeveryone »

Richard1580 wrote: Mon Jun 13, 2022 8:11 pm So, we are now "officially" in a bear market. Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be? More to the point, would you care to explain *why* the bottom will be where you guess. For the record, I have no idea where the bottom will be - but I do find it all amusing.
No guesses here. My savings rate is 23% and we don’t have wiggle room to save more. Just living life and thankful that this is occurring while we are in our earning years and while we are in a time where our savings rate is high.
boogiehead
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by boogiehead »

gougou wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:58 pm We already hit the bottom. Oil, gasoline and natural gas are going down which means inflation will be going down as well. Housing is softening and rent is pretty stable. So the Fed will stop hiking interest rates very soon.
Inflation is baked into the economy so oil going down a few bucks, gasoline going down a few cents will not reverse the course of inflation. Natural gas will only go up once we hit hurricane season followed by increased demand in the winter. Housing is softening (more inventory), but still at near all time record high prices. The fed will be very busy raising rates as fast as possible as there is no sign that their demand destruction has any real impact yet (unemployment is still very low). Buckle up friends... I'll meet you guys at 2500.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

rockstar wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:53 pm
Ed 2 wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 10:34 pm Traditionally the bottom is when most of us stop guessing and get use to this drops . Then the recovery begins . I personally still see too many optimists. I remember back in 2008 - 2010 bear market if you tell someone that you invest in stocks they would think you are crazy. This is the sign of the bottom. Until then we see long road to go downstairs.
I'm not seeing the panic. Folks at work are still talking about buying the dip. There hasn't been enough pain yet.

Retail earnings for Q2 should be bad. And that should send us lower. Too much inventory is going to be a problem. And no one is prepared for it because economist are trained on the demand side of the equation, not the supply side. The metrics and data isn't easy to come by. It's not really on their radar.

Maybe 3100 is too optimistic. Maybe the panic sets in once we breach 3000.
I agree - capitulation is nowhere near. I estimate by October 28, 2022- it will happen. The Fed will have raised rates 2 more times by then.
Last edited by Grt2bOutdoors on Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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bgf
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by bgf »

All I know is that the bottom is NOT going to have anything to do with PE ratios. Get that stuff out of your heads and forget about it. The bottom is going to come in because of market structure forces on whatever particular day it happens. Period. It’s not like the world is waiting for some fundamental level to start buying…
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Call_Me_Op »

In the words of one of my past co-workers, a competent theoretical physicist - "dunno."
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by saolafan »

drumboy256 wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:52 am The bottom is every day I have cash to invest. Solved. :sharebeer
I predict the opposite. The bottom is the day I liquidate my accounts.
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nedsaid
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by nedsaid »

Call_Me_Op wrote: Fri Jul 01, 2022 8:23 am In the words of one of my past co-workers, a competent theoretical physicist - "dunno."
That sounds about right. If I could predict this stuff, I would be someone's Chief Market Strategist on Wall $treet or simply working to increase my personal fortune. No one knows.
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Tamalak
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Tamalak »

I think we've seen the bottom. PE looks downright attractive to me and projected earnings by Yardenni are fine.
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NearlyRetired
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by NearlyRetired »

Yes, it will be right before the prices start going up :D
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moorso
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by moorso »

When the bottom will be in? Bottoms already in at 3,640 on 6/16/22
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PinotGris
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by PinotGris »

drumboy256 wrote: Tue Jun 14, 2022 9:52 am The bottom is every day I have cash to invest. Solved. :sharebeer
agreed! I have cash I TLHd now sitting in my MM and I am slowly getting it back into the market. Goes up or down, it is a good day. :sharebeer
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Hyperchicken »

snackdog wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:30 pm Reversion to the long term trend would put the SP500 at 2800 or so.

Image
Isn't S&P 500 index dimensionless? I am very suspicious of a chart that uses $ unit for it.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by balbrec2 »

I'll go out on a limb.
My SWAG is 2677 but not until 2023.
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Charles Joseph
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Charles Joseph »

Somewhere above zero.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by nisiprius »

Your job as an investor is to make sensible decisions that do not depend on knowing where the bottom will be.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Vtsax100 »

I do not know where the bottom will be but I do know that I will be fully invested when its gets here.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by TheTimeLord »

snackdog wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:30 pm Reversion to the long term trend would put the SP500 at 2800 or so.

Image
So a touch over a 40% peak to trough decline.
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best2u
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by best2u »

The low is going to be July 26th or 27th with the S&P moving just below 3500. Something like 3482. :sharebeer
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Ciel »

I'd be very surprised if it goes much below 3600.
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burritoLover
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by burritoLover »

For the S&P 500 to be as cheap as developed Ex-US is now (based on CAPE), it would have to drop to something like 2400.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by rockstar »

I saw a big ole sign in front of a Super Cuts with discounts on Tuesdays. I think, the downturn is just beginning. I also couldn't even find blueberries at the local grocery store. This all feels like a car crash in slow motion. Let's see how Prime Day goes for Amazon this month.
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Richard1580 »

rockstar wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 4:59 pm This all feels like a car crash in slow motion.
I hear that. While, I have no idea what the future holds, I don't think the fat lady has even gotten into costume yet, let alone warmed up. I will be delighted if I am wrong, but not surprised if I am right. Regardless, it will be interesting.
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David Jay
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by David Jay »

snackdog wrote: Thu Jun 30, 2022 11:30 pm Reversion to the long term trend would put the SP500 at 2800 or so.

Image
Trend line would look very different if you start in 1980. Which is pretty close to the start of the high tech era (desktop computing, etc.).
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Logan Roy »

Someone from Research Affiliates was being interviewed on Bloomberg the other day. Made the most sobering point (I am going from memory, if anyone can find the interview): if we calculated inflation today as we did in the 1970s (i.e. including house prices), we'd already be at 12-15%(?) inflation.

But in 1981, the federal funds rate was at 19%. We're still talking about 3.25%, and 50 basis point moves. We are a long long way from 19%. And who's to say we won't have to go there, and we're not massively behind the curve? So crude calculation. 1 / 19 = 5.3%. Recession knocks earnings 25%. PEs need to get to 19. Say the S&P needs to drop another 50%: 1,900.
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Richard1580
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Re: Anyone want to guess where the bottom will be?

Post by Richard1580 »

Logan Roy wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 5:52 pm Someone from Research Affiliates was being interviewed on Bloomberg the other day. Made the most sobering point (I am going from memory, if anyone can find the interview): if we calculated inflation today as we did in the 1970s (i.e. including house prices), we'd already be at 12-15%(?) inflation.
Good point. I know that the "official" metrics for calculating inflation have been changed over the years. While this might be due to legitimate reasons to make them more accurate, my gut tells me that it is just manipulating numbers to make them less scary. Of course this doesn't fool anyone who is buying groceries or paying utility bills. "The chocolate ration has been increased from 30 to 20 grams per week." <snicker>

But I suppose we are getting off topic.
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