TSLA: What Changed?

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SlowMovingInvestor
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by SlowMovingInvestor »

I'm not an expert in this area, but IIRC, the supply of rare earths is a genuine concern. China dominates there and these are used in the production of EV magnets.
impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 6:30 am I'm not an expert in this area, but IIRC, the supply of rare earths is a genuine concern. China dominates there and these are used in the production of EV magnets.
Motors, which are important part of EVs and wind turbines, need rare earth minerals. Batteries are much bigger and heavier than motors.

Each tesla has upwards of 1,200 lbs of battery - which needs Nickel, Cobalt, Copper, Graphite, manganese and Lithium. China has bought off or controls supply of these minerals. Most of processing of these metals happen in China. So most EV makers will be beholden to China or their companies for a while. And they would want these companies to not just buy the metals, but also batteries made in China.

Every EV needs > 250 miles of battery. That is one disadvantage that Tesla has. In contrast other automakers can have a 50 mile battery and gas engine backup - Plugin Hybrid. Toyota, VW, Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Hyundai all are selling Plugin Hybrids and they are well marketed in Europe.

Europe's 2021 automotive sales included 9% of pure-EVs and 9% of Plug-in EVs. Tesla does not have Plugin EV technology and Elon dislikes it just like Lidar. This is a long term negative for Tesla, just like without radar/Lidar FSD wont work..

Will discuss how Tesla has fallen behind on battery technology. Their Battery day was Sept 2020 - promised technologies 4680, structural batteries are behind.

Image
Elon first promised a $25,000 EV back in 2018, which he said was possible within three years.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/2145 ... balt-plaid
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GP813
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by GP813 »

Rare earth materials in EV's keeps being reduced by Japanese and U.S. automakers. And Japan as a nation showed how to ween yourself of Chinese reliance. The problem is that the EV segment is growing so fast overall. But as this become the profitable sector within Autos and the clear future more research and design dollars will flow into this segment and people will come up with new solutions.

Japan’s global rare earths quest holds lessons for the US and Europe

Toyota Develops New Magnet for Electric Motors Aiming to Reduce Use of Critical Rare-Earth Element by up to 50%


Factbox: Automakers cutting back on rare earth magnets
GP813
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by GP813 »

I just saw a Buick(General Motors) commercial on TV that painfully illustrates the bind legacy automakers are in. In the commercial the Buick driving dad kept saying how do you like my new Alexa(Amazon).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvkrqnfE2fA
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TimeRunner
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by TimeRunner »

GP813 wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 3:46 pm I just saw a Buick(General Motors) commercial on TV that painfully illustrates the bind legacy automakers are in. In the commercial the Buick driving dad kept saying how do you like my new Alexa(Amazon).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bvkrqnfE2fA
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4nursebee
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

impatientInv wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 3:22 pm
SlowMovingInvestor wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 6:30 am I'm not an expert in this area, but IIRC, the supply of rare earths is a genuine concern. China dominates there and these are used in the production of EV magnets.
Motors, which are important part of EVs and wind turbines, need rare earth minerals. Batteries are much bigger and heavier than motors.

Each tesla has upwards of 1,200 lbs of battery - which needs Nickel, Cobalt, Copper, Graphite, manganese and Lithium. China has bought off or controls supply of these minerals. Most of processing of these metals happen in China. So most EV makers will be beholden to China or their companies for a while. And they would want these companies to not just buy the metals, but also batteries made in China.

Every EV needs > 250 miles of battery. That is one disadvantage that Tesla has. In contrast other automakers can have a 50 mile battery and gas engine backup - Plugin Hybrid. Toyota, VW, Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Hyundai all are selling Plugin Hybrids and they are well marketed in Europe.

Europe's 2021 automotive sales included 9% of pure-EVs and 9% of Plug-in EVs. Tesla does not have Plugin EV technology and Elon dislikes it just like Lidar. This is a long term negative for Tesla, just like without radar/Lidar FSD wont work..

Will discuss how Tesla has fallen behind on battery technology. Their Battery day was Sept 2020 - promised technologies 4680, structural batteries are behind.

Image
Elon first promised a $25,000 EV back in 2018, which he said was possible within three years.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/2145 ... balt-plaid

https://electrek.co/2022/05/06/tesla-li ... deal-vale/
Seems to be options outside of China. Nickel from seven companies and four countries. Looks like no single element comes solely from China. I'm good with that.
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impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Both Ford and General Motors were downgraded by the bank on Wednesday as increasing raw material costs and macroeconomic factors decrease the attractiveness of EV efforts.

The market likely underestimates the permanency of recent raw material price increases ...
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3837319-g ... t-concerns

This was yesterday. The note said commodity shortage and inflation adding $10k + to battery cost. This is before EVs had an opportunity to scale up. EVs still only ~4% of US sales.

See the chart from previous post. 100% of Graphite is made in China, 80+% of cathode and anode is made there. China is the cheapest place for processing with no environment regulation and coal power. Lots of chemicals and water is used for extracting minerals. As these processing move to Europe and America's price will increase.

Image

PS: I want EVs to succeed, own a plugin hybrid. I believe path taken by Tesla is great short term for EV uptake, but bad long term for EV market.

The Tesla stock performance alone has forced rest of the industry to emulate it. Toyota, which I believe is the smartest automaker, preferred plugin EVs over EVs had to change as well. All due to shareholder pressure to emulate Tesla's stock performance.
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impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Something to ponder. If TSLA stock grew 20% every year over the last 5 years, it would be at $250.

TSLA falling can unravel the whole market. I know their fans are many and have the faith. Hope it's not drastic. I am ~100% stocks, so am worried.

Q2 will be bad
Tesla Analyst Contradicts Elon Musk On China Lockdown Impact: 'Giga Shanghai Ramp-Up Unlikely Until June'
https://www.benzinga.com/amp/content/27127800
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HomerJ
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by HomerJ »

4nursebee wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 6:09 am
impatientInv wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 9:43 pm China and companies in China own/control most of battery raw material mining and processing. They also produce most of the anode and cathode that go into battery cells.

It will be not be possible for Tesla to grow 50% every year without strong support/partnership from China. China would want most of this production to happen in China and by Chinese companies. BYD, CATL etc will control EV batteries, not Tesla IMO. Both have superior batteries vs Tesla (4680 is way behind schedule, specs have been diluted)

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/who- ... -jbglsgm02 link works incognito
For the past 20 years, China has been buying up valuable resources around the world to supply its vast manufacturing industry. More critically still, even where it does not own the mines outright, it has secured deals that mean nearly 80 per cent of the planet’s supply of these crucial raw minerals is sent to China for cleaning up and processing into usable metals. From the Chinese refineries, the metals not needed by China’s own plants are then shipped off to factories in Europe, America and elsewhere.

This means that, theoretically at least, in the most important minerals for the future green economy — nickel, cobalt, graphite, lithium and so-called rare earth metals — China could effectively turn on, and turn off, the world’s supply at will.
Image
Wow, so much to "unpack" here:
1. This seems like more opinion than fact.
2. Please clarify (give evidence) superiority of BYD and CATL batteries.
3. Please clarify (evidence?) that 4680 is a) behind schedule and b) has diluted specs.
4. And I question the input data reliability, based upon a few minute internet search it appears that China is not a top producer of Ni: https://www.statista.com/statistics/264 ... y-country/
Heh, and China mines 100% of graphite? 100% is always a suspicious number. Five seconds of googling, and I see 62% instead.
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impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

It's processing graphite for battery anode. Not mining. Graphics say processing and refining, not mining. Pls read the article linked for details. Worked for me in private mode, no paywall.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/who- ... -jbglsgm02
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HomerJ
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by HomerJ »

impatientInv wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 1:47 pm It's processing graphite for battery anode. Not mining. Graphics say processing and refining, not mining. Pls read the article linked for details. Worked for me in private mode, no paywall.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/who- ... -jbglsgm02
Ah, I stand corrected... I guess we better start processing graphite.
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SlowMovingInvestor
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by SlowMovingInvestor »

HomerJ wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 6:13 pm
impatientInv wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 1:47 pm It's processing graphite for battery anode. Not mining. Graphics say processing and refining, not mining. Pls read the article linked for details. Worked for me in private mode, no paywall.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/who- ... -jbglsgm02
Ah, I stand corrected... I guess we better start processing graphite.
A graphite shortage is no big deal. We can just convert diamonds to graphite :happy :idea:
4nursebee
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

Ok, so here's the thing with "China wants" comments. What I read into this as implied threat for China to control everything and raise prices. But in a world of demand/supply curves, at certain price points competition is stimulated. There might be short term fluctuations or manipulations, all these do is increase market entrants.

Another point is that any individual component can only affect the final car price so much. If there were say one pound of element X in a battery pack, doubling the price of X would minimally impact the final car price.

Also, any price issues due to market control would impact every product. Perhaps this could be said to favor ICE vehicles. But if the price control were to come from China and impact consumer behaviour, China could influence pricing back down. China leadership is already known to be exceptionally pro EV!

On 4680 cells, I do not recall TSLA ever laying out a specific timeline. So, they are not late. 4680 cells have been produced, are in cars, and have capacity being built out.

My suggestion for anyone concerned about 4680 so claimed delays to take a look at the battery day presentation. Then make your own mind up about it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6T9xIeZTds


And for those that like arguing I will put in a PSA for the following video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JTN9Nx8VYtk
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Nysoz
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

impatientInv wrote: Wed May 11, 2022 3:22 pm Motors, which are important part of EVs and wind turbines, need rare earth minerals. Batteries are much bigger and heavier than motors.

Each tesla has upwards of 1,200 lbs of battery - which needs Nickel, Cobalt, Copper, Graphite, manganese and Lithium. China has bought off or controls supply of these minerals. Most of processing of these metals happen in China. So most EV makers will be beholden to China or their companies for a while. And they would want these companies to not just buy the metals, but also batteries made in China.

Every EV needs > 250 miles of battery. That is one disadvantage that Tesla has. In contrast other automakers can have a 50 mile battery and gas engine backup - Plugin Hybrid. Toyota, VW, Audi, Mercedes, BMW, Hyundai all are selling Plugin Hybrids and they are well marketed in Europe.

Europe's 2021 automotive sales included 9% of pure-EVs and 9% of Plug-in EVs. Tesla does not have Plugin EV technology and Elon dislikes it just like Lidar. This is a long term negative for Tesla, just like without radar/Lidar FSD wont work..

Will discuss how Tesla has fallen behind on battery technology. Their Battery day was Sept 2020 - promised technologies 4680, structural batteries are behind.
Elon first promised a $25,000 EV back in 2018, which he said was possible within three years.
https://www.theverge.com/2020/9/22/2145 ... balt-plaid
Tesla is pretty darn good at managing their supply chain needs as evidenced by their continued growth while most other OEMs had to cut productions due to chip shortages. They realized like 20 years ago how many batteries are needed for their EV future and have kept this in their mind forever. They've held onto their 20M EV goal (not a promise) in 2030 and Tesla realizes how many batteries and earth minerals are needed for this goal. They're aiming for 3TWh needed in 2030 and they know the materials just don't magically appear. In their earnings calls, they realize all this and have asked mining companies to get more minerals out of the ground. If they can't, they're going to partner with them directly to ensure they get the materials they need as environmentally friendly as possible.

That engine backup isn't free. The engine and transmission needed in a hybrid adds cost, complexity, weight, maintenance to a system that isn't needed for drives entirely possible for BEV system.

Elon has definitely underestimated the complexity of FSD and time will tell if he's right or wrong. However, FSD beta has been able to go from LA to San Francisco/Silicon Valley without any human intervention already, no radar or lidar needed. The Silicon Valley trip did need the human to charge the car. Is the system perfect? Far from it, but shows what's possible with just cameras and a neural net.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-fsd-bet ... est-video/

How has Tesla fallen behind on battery technology? They're making 4680 cells, over 1M of them so far. It isn't a lot in battery quantity but it's just from their pilot plant. They're making their new battery lines in Austin and Berlin now. They're supposedly building cars with the structural battery pack now out of Austin.

The $25k EV idea was unveiled at battery day in 2020 and possibly fully autonomous in 2023. This is speculated to possibly be a barebones car as costs go down. As we all know, the world has decided differently and costs of everything have gone up. It doesn't make sense to design or build this car yet as they still have months long wait for their $50k+ cars. Same reason why they did away with the $35k model 3.
impatientInv wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 8:12 am Something to ponder. If TSLA stock grew 20% every year over the last 5 years, it would be at $250.

TSLA falling can unravel the whole market. I know their fans are many and have the faith. Hope it's not drastic. I am ~100% stocks, so am worried.

Q2 will be bad
That's just cherry picking numbers. TSLA did nothing from 2014-2019 because of all the shorts and others actively trying to keep BEVs from being viable. This was while Tesla the company was still growing revenue by more than 70% annually and production since 2010.

TSLA is 1.44% of SPY. Even if it went away it's not a huge portion of the index. It would have unknown rippling impacts across the markets though.

I don't disagree with you that Q2 will likely be bad though, Elon already warned people of that the last earnings call. Shanghai being slow, now likely BTC impairment. It's a matter of how fast they can ramp up Berlin to compensate. What TSLA investors do is look past these small blips and look for the long term goals. They're adding a new building in Shanghai to expand production another 450k cars there.

As for Toyota, they also bet big on hydrogen and hoping for solid state BEVs too. GM bet on Nikola. Good companies can make bad decisions.
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firebirdparts
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by firebirdparts »

I realize y'all can read, but that chart is about refining, not the actual source, and to the degree that graphite is not a ubiquitous material, the simple fact that China is the cheapest place to get you some material. The price of chinese material caused everybody else to close their mines.

Graphite is mined in China. it's carbon, so it's not like you can't get all you want any time from another process. It's just that they are the source right now.

China legitimately has dominating known reserves of rare earths. That is true. Viet Nam and Brazil tied for second place. Russia is not shabby.

On the other hand, the big lithium reserves are all in the new world. This is where the refining on the chart is out of line with where the material is. China is doing the refining (because they can cheaply) but the big reserves are in South America.

Nickel is a big chunk of that chart and it's just metal. Nickel reserves are Indonesia, Australia, Brazil in that order.

As always, the best solution is to work together and live well. But sometimes people don't do that.

And too it might be worth noticing that Brazil is a "2nd china" when it comes to these materials.
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impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Steve Wozniak unhappy with his Tesla.

About AutoPilot
We drive 10 mph, 40 mph, 70 mph, and 80 mph all the time. When we’re on an interstate (...) going 75 mph, and all of a sudden, the car screeches the brakes! The dog gets thrown forward, and it slows down. If there’s nobody in the rearview mirror that we have to speed up for, I let it go all the way down: 25 mph on an interstate. A Tesla with nothing around, no cars around, no nothing. (...) This is so dangerous! It’s happened to us a hundred times, at least, because we drive so much.

My gosh! Sometimes, it kind of goes over the line a little, and there’s a truck right there. If a truck kind of moves towards you a little, you should… A human driver would just pull away a few inches. And it doesn’t do that. I remember recently (...) I’m driving along, and all of a sudden, there’s a semi on my right. The car lurched towards the semi, and I had to quickly grab control. Wow, I mean… That would have been death!

You’re on a freeway, and (...) there’s a merger lane coming in. (...) The lane gets wider where it is and (the Tesla) starts driving like a drunk person. But the car coming up ahead… As a smart human, you would just see (...) we’re going to be equal, so I’ll back off a little. Just easy to do. The Tesla lets you go right up next to it, screeches the brake on to get out of the way because it has to by then. This is just not the way humans think

https://www.autoevolution.com/news/stev ... 88775.html
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4nursebee
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

Looks like battery production is one of the tesla changes: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maR05OVeRxo
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impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

A few things about 4680 cells
  • 4680 cells are large format cylindrical cells. Such large cylindrical cells are known to have problems with internal shorts and other issues. That is why few other EV maker use similar cells.
  • All the other EV battery makers using large cells, use large prismatic cells. These are large prismatic cells vs small cylindrical Cells for Tesla This included Samsung SDI, LGChem, CATL, BYD etc. 
  • Tesla battery pack design in 2009 was highly innovative. It took off the shelf 18650 cells, put thousands of them together to make automotive batteries. This was when Li ion cells for automotive applications didn't exist . From 2009 to now Tesla has incremental improvements in battery design. Move from 18650 to 2170, chemistry reducing Cobalt use etc. 
Tesla pack design
  • Positives- high power density with regular cells. Hence the high acceleration possible in 2010 Roadster. Redundancy of thousands of cells. 
  • Negatives -  Expensive, very heavy. Has Thousands of cells in a bag of potato design. possible reliability when one of thousand cells misbehaves in unexpected ways. There are many Tesla battery repair videos about this - when 3rd parties fixed "junker" batteries by finding this problem with one of thousands of cells. Tesla service just replaced $20k+ batteries.
15 years ago I spoke to a battery engineer in Japan about automotive batteries and he had mentioned they were testing beer can size Li Ion cells. If Companies were testing 4680 type cylindrical cells 15 years ago, why didnt they end up in EVs? Why do all other EV makers now use Prismatic - rectangular cells?   
Tesla started before others, so they started with the cells that were commonly available 13 years ago. Those were the 18650 cells.
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AdrianC
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by AdrianC »

GM and LG have had issues with pouch batteries (a and e in the diagram above). Musk made this comment after GMs troubles:
"...probability of thermal runaway is dangerously high with large pouch cells. Tesla strongly recommends against their use."

https://insideevs.com/news/532693/tesla ... ells-risk/

GMs new Ultium battery is large pouch cells.

I do wonder if the probability of thermal runaway is also quite high with large cylindrical cells. Why wouldn't it be?

I'm in line for a new traction battery for our 2021 Chevy Bolt. Not an issue for us. I doubt very much if there's anything wrong with our battery, so we'll use it up some, then get a new battery and new 100k mile warranty.
impatientInv
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Tesla removed from S&P 500 ESG index

Tesla's "lack of a low-carbon strategy" and "codes of business conduct," along with racism and poor working conditions reported at Tesla's factory in Fremont, California, affected the score. Tesla's handling of an investigation by the National Highway Transportation Safety Administration also weighed on its score.

While Tesla's stated mission is to accelerate the world's transition to sustainable energy, in February this year it settled with the Environmental Protection Agency after years of Clean Air Act violations and neglecting to track its own emissions. Tesla ranked 22nd on last year's Toxic 100 Air Polluters Index, compiled annually by U-Mass Amherst Political Economy Research Institute — worse than Exxon Mobil, which came in 26th. (The index uses data from 2019, the most recently available.)
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-re ... 19416.html

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/18/why-tes ... index.html
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Valuethinker
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Valuethinker »

impatientInv wrote: Thu May 12, 2022 8:12 am Something to ponder. If TSLA stock grew 20% every year over the last 5 years, it would be at $250.

TSLA falling can unravel the whole market. I know their fans are many and have the faith. Hope it's not drastic. I am ~100% stocks, so am worried.

Q2 will be bad
Tesla Analyst Contradicts Elon Musk On China Lockdown Impact: 'Giga Shanghai Ramp-Up Unlikely Until June'
https://www.benzinga.com/amp/content/27127800
If you are in a situation where the performance of one stock worries you, then you have too high a weighting in equities.

The S&P 500 is still quite diverse -- albeit with the highest level of concentration in 10 stocks since at least 2000, if not before. The global equity indices is more diverse again.

The whole point of index-based investing is to avoid overcommitment to single stocks, sectors etc. We have seen in the last 6 months a stark reversal of the fortunes of the tech sector v the energy sector for example. The latter is the only S&P 500 subsector with a positive return, I believe. Last year, though, consensus was energy was finished by the energy transition*.

Basically it's OK to follow Tesla as a company. The stock price is academically interesting - what the market is discounting/ forecasting.

But it is not something one can worry about. VW will either catch up the gap, or it won't, and be lost to history. Who remembers Studebaker? American Motors? From a portfolio perspective it's all water under the bridge.

(There's an exception if you have company stock through employment - but then it's a form of compensation, not an investment. But you may have to adjust your investment portfolio to compensate).

* I happen to believe that to be correct. But it's all about timing. The tobacco industry has been "dying" for decades, whilst making excellent returns for investors, primarily through dividends & share buybacks. Tobacco companies mint money, generally. In a world of declining energy exploration activity, companies with reserves & production will likely do well.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by cheezit »

Valuethinker wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 3:43 am * I happen to believe [the prior consensus that the energy sector was finished by the energy transition] to be correct. But it's all about timing. The tobacco industry has been "dying" for decades, whilst making excellent returns for investors, primarily through dividends & share buybacks. Tobacco companies mint money, generally. In a world of declining energy exploration activity, companies with reserves & production will likely do well.
Since you follow energy pretty closely, do you know whether North American shale oil and gas producers are bringing wellheads online at a good clip now that every flavor of crude oil has been above their breakeven price for a while? Last I heard labor issues were frustrating their efforts. I know with great confidence that supply chain problems are not helping (wellheads need pressure and temperature instruments and PLCs and whatnot to monitor them, those things all need chips, you know the rest).

My guess is that eventually extraction gets into full swing in the Dakotas and elsewhere within six months or so, and then the Saudis are in an interesting place - in the short term the shale oil and gas people will bring the price down but not down far enough to pose a real problem, in the long term they want to kill off the competition to facilitate price increases but they can't currently cooperate with Russia to attempt that like they did in 2014.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by firebirdparts »

The response has been less than impressive. There are lots of places on line you can find "rig count" data. Baker Hughes is popular. Rigs are "low" really by historical standards. Certainly increasing. If people don't buy from Russia, prices will be high for a while. The big incentive is for China to buy from Russia, and I don't know if they have infrastructure to get it over there.
Last edited by firebirdparts on Thu May 19, 2022 9:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Valuethinker
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Valuethinker »

cheezit wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 8:34 am
Valuethinker wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 3:43 am * I happen to believe [the prior consensus that the energy sector was finished by the energy transition] to be correct. But it's all about timing. The tobacco industry has been "dying" for decades, whilst making excellent returns for investors, primarily through dividends & share buybacks. Tobacco companies mint money, generally. In a world of declining energy exploration activity, companies with reserves & production will likely do well.
Since you follow energy pretty closely, do you know whether North American shale oil and gas producers are bringing wellheads online at a good clip now that every flavor of crude oil has been above their breakeven price for a while? Last I heard labor issues were frustrating their efforts. I know with great confidence that supply chain problems are not helping (wellheads need pressure and temperature instruments and PLCs and whatnot to monitor them, those things all need chips, you know the rest).

My guess is that eventually extraction gets into full swing in the Dakotas and elsewhere within six months or so, and then the Saudis are in an interesting place - in the short term the shale oil and gas people will bring the price down but not down far enough to pose a real problem, in the long term they want to kill off the competition to facilitate price increases but they can't currently cooperate with Russia to attempt that like they did in 2014.
I would not say I am a close follower of the energy sector (more on the renewables side, in any case).

I think it will take much longer to correct.

The fracking sector suffered from a lack of capital discipline - one estimate I saw was that Wall Street had invested in $1 trillion in debt & equity upon which it did not earn a return. Companies will be far more disciplined this cycle & marginal resources just won't get developed. Much of the "low hanging fruit" in terms of wells may already have been plucked, so the increase in production arising from higher activity will be smaller than in the past. The huge drought affecting the western states of the USA may also have an impact.

In addition the supply side constraints that bedevil other industries are there too: people have left the industry and there is a substantial labor shortage; there is not the spare equipment that there was and lead times have (I would guess) greatly lengthened on new orders (as they have for just about everything else in capital and consumer goods).

Many of the price spikes we see are refinery-related. The world is short of refineries for refined product - whether that's because of the war disruption plus resumption of demand growth, or due to earlier consolidations and closures I am not exactly sure. But for example diesel fuel, it is causing a global price surge.

I do not expect any relief on prices *unless* there are geopolitical ructions that cause changes in policy. For example that cause Saudi Arabia to turn the taps back on (although their actual upside is likely to be c 2m b/d). Or brings full Russian production back onto world markets eg if peace breaks out. Or brings Iran and Venezuela back towards their historic export levels.

The other possibility is demand destruction-- to get supply +/- inventory changes = demand. So far the American driver has not shown an inclination to cut back on consumption-- that's the single largest oil consumer in the world. There's still repressed demand for travel all over the developed world as we move past Covid. On the other hand many industrial & logistics-related customers are really hurting. EVs are now as much as 20% of sales of new vehicles in Europe & China (all plug-in vehicles) and c 5% in USA. It will take quite a long time before that flow has meaningful impact on the "stock" of cars though*. A new form of Covid could potentially cause a return to lockdowns.

If we get some kind of synchronised global recession then maybe that scares the oil price back down.


* Say for Europe new car sales are about 1/15th of total cars in operation. Then plug in EVs (which will include some hybrids) sales are c 1/75th of all cars out there.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

FSD and safety scores...

I think we have had our newer Tesla a couple months now. We were unaware of any path forward to get or qualify for FSD beta but had paid for it. No safety score showed up on our phone app. The previous process was to download new app, see the safety score each day, consider adapting our driving, and I thought score a 97 or better to qualify for FSD. Christmas 2021 we awoke to an interesting update.

A week or two ago we noted the safety score was back, already had a number of days driving. We were in the midst of a road trip, one in which we recall the autopilot features detected several obstacles (NOT detected visually) and these obstacles triggered several forward collision warnings(FCW). The score it gave us that day was a 25! FCW is judged as incident per 1000 miles in total. We desire active FSD beta so became more cautious with our driving. Current other weak spots are following too closely, hard braking, and one day one turn gave too much lateral force. Of note, the hard braking stuff is a bit off in my judgement. The car judges a fairly normal or slightly fast stop at a red light as being too fast of a stop and scores better if one were to just run through the intersection. Running a red light does not impact the driving score.

We can't find any firm rules to get FSD so are stuck to super safe driving for a while. Net score is up to 97. Some sources say everyone with 95 or better to get it soon, others say 98 is or was the score required, even yet others state for FSD beta expansion one requires a perfect score. We will learn more in 9-10 days when our 25 score drops off the running 30 day count. Until then we will be some of the most boring safe drivers on the road.

I've read that Tesla insurance looks at such scores also.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

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I removed an off-topic post discussing an adult situation regarding Elon Musk. In addition to this forum being a family-friendly environment, rants about CEOs are off-topic. See: Non-actionable (Trolling) Topics
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

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Last edited by Whakamole on Fri May 20, 2022 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by LadyGeek »

Please don't. See my post above.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

TSLA is not the top holding of ARKK anymore. This hasn't happened is 2+ years. With Tesla down 10% today, lets see if Cathie comes in "buys the dip." She must as her price target is $4,800.

Are you buying the dip?

Image
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by manatee2005 »

impatientInv wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 2:12 pm TSLA is not the top holding of ARKK anymore. This hasn't happened is 2+ years. With Tesla down 10% today, lets see if Cathie comes in "buys the dip." She must as her price target is $4,800.

Are you buying the dip?

Image
Why is anyone mentioning Cathy Wood or ARKk. That’s a fund that’s down over 70% YTD. My neighbor’s 18 year old son has a better track record than Cathy Wood.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

manatee2005 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 2:14 pm
impatientInv wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 2:12 pm TSLA is not the top holding of ARKK anymore. This hasn't happened is 2+ years. With Tesla down 10% today, lets see if Cathie comes in "buys the dip." She must as her price target is $4,800.

Are you buying the dip?
Why is anyone mentioning Cathy Wood or ARKk. That’s a fund that’s down over 70% YTD. My neighbor’s 18 year old son has a better track record than Cathy Wood.
Cathie Wood's fund was discussed on NPR radio the other day. How the fund was down a lot, but people continue to buy. She continues to get coverage/interviews on all the financial TV.

ARK was one the first biggest supported of TSLA stock and still has a price target of $4,800
impatientInv wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 1:24 pm Cathie Woods famed investor SI, earlier had criticized GM. She had said TSLA will be only winner and legacy automakers are doomed. She had also predicted that GM and Ford may go bankrupt..

First she had TSLA price target at $800,
then she upped it to $3,000 and
again she upped it to $4,600.

People continue to buy ARKK ETF
Ark Invest's 75% decline in its flagship ETF hasn't stopped investors from pouring $1.3 billion in the fund in 2022
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ood-2022-5
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by manatee2005 »

impatientInv wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 4:50 pm
manatee2005 wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 2:14 pm
impatientInv wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 2:12 pm TSLA is not the top holding of ARKK anymore. This hasn't happened is 2+ years. With Tesla down 10% today, lets see if Cathie comes in "buys the dip." She must as her price target is $4,800.

Are you buying the dip?
Why is anyone mentioning Cathy Wood or ARKk. That’s a fund that’s down over 70% YTD. My neighbor’s 18 year old son has a better track record than Cathy Wood.
Cathie Wood's fund was discussed on NPR radio the other day. How the fund was down a lot, but people continue to buy. She continues to get coverage/interviews on all the financial TV.

ARK was one the first biggest supported of TSLA stock and still has a price target of $4,800
impatientInv wrote: Tue May 10, 2022 1:24 pm Cathie Woods famed investor SI, earlier had criticized GM. She had said TSLA will be only winner and legacy automakers are doomed. She had also predicted that GM and Ford may go bankrupt..

First she had TSLA price target at $800,
then she upped it to $3,000 and
again she upped it to $4,600.

People continue to buy ARKK ETF
Ark Invest's 75% decline in its flagship ETF hasn't stopped investors from pouring $1.3 billion in the fund in 2022
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... ood-2022-5
I guess some people like to lose money. Did you see the stocks she’s holding? Roku, zoom, Shopify, she got caught on the other side of the pandemic holding stay at home stocks.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

TSLA dropped 6.5% on Friday. Maybe this was one of the reason.

Documentary about FSD on Hulu and FX about Tesla FSD called the "Elon Musk's Crash Course"

Documentary is about "investigation into Tesla's Autopilot technology as a way to analyze Musk as a public figure, and a potentially dangerous one at that. While much of the episode is focused on the many accidents, some deadly, that Tesla's self-driving cars have been involved in, the documentary is at its best when it uses the insights brought about by these specific tragedies to comment on Musk's role as the head of Tesla and as a very public figure whom many people adore.

The essence of the documentary is that Tesla's automated driving technology is nowhere near capable of what it's marketed as being able to do, and that government regulation is having a lot of trouble keeping up with that technology, meaning that the safety of Tesla owners and others on the road is being threatened."

https://www.tvguide.com/news/elon-musk- ... rsonality/

See the video - driver gets warning < 0.5 seconds and FSD disengages before the accident. Tesla can always say FSD was not engaged during the accident and driver needed to take over.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zl9rM8D3k34

More and more drivers are being charged for Autopilot accidents. Driver is 100% responsible for all accidents.

https://www.presstelegram.com/2022/05/1 ... dge-rules/
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by fanmail »

He’s been lying about FSD and other things Tesla was “close” to doing for years and the buying cult literally hasn’t cared about any of that. They still don’t probably as it’s trading at a trailing 90 PE.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by fanmail »

And unfortunately it still has the 6th largest weight in the s&p 500.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by JoMoney »

The difference between TSLA's close on April fools day (1,084.59), and it's most recent close (663.90) is a change of -420.69
Somehow Elon trolls without even trying...
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

impatientInv wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 1:14 pm TSLA dropped 6.5% on Friday. Maybe this was one of the reason.

Documentary about FSD on Hulu and FX about Tesla FSD called the "Elon Musk's Crash Course"

Documentary is about "investigation into Tesla's Autopilot technology as a way to analyze Musk as a public figure, and a potentially dangerous one at that. While much of the episode is focused on the many accidents, some deadly, that Tesla's self-driving cars have been involved in, the documentary is at its best when it uses the insights brought about by these specific tragedies to comment on Musk's role as the head of Tesla and as a very public figure whom many people adore.

The essence of the documentary is that Tesla's automated driving technology is nowhere near capable of what it's marketed as being able to do, and that government regulation is having a lot of trouble keeping up with that technology, meaning that the safety of Tesla owners and others on the road is being threatened."

https://www.tvguide.com/news/elon-musk- ... rsonality/

See the video - driver gets warning < 0.5 seconds and FSD disengages before the accident. Tesla can always say FSD was not engaged during the accident and driver needed to take over.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zl9rM8D3k34

More and more drivers are being charged for Autopilot accidents. Driver is 100% responsible for all accidents.

https://www.presstelegram.com/2022/05/1 ... dge-rules/
On the youtube video, a couple points.
1. FSD did not shut down on its own. It shut down because the driver hit the brakes. He said he hit the brakes, then FSD turned off. That is how it works.
2. There are lots of things that Tesla has not programmed for yet, things like railroad tracks, school buses. It looks to me like green plastic bendable cones are one of those things. It does however seem to label orange construction cones. I've never seen green things like that.
3. Seems like he still owns the car.

I wonder if there are any videos showing the benefits of Tesla system...

Other, these "accidents" read as if someone was not monitoring the car and driving conditions.

For many things in our lives, my SO and I are risk averse. We wear our seatbelts. We don't get on motorcycles. We worry a lot about other drivers and what they could do. Having once driven with Lane Keep Assist in a Subaru with Eyesight system, we found we could not do without. And, having once driven a car with FSD beta, we look forward to getting it again in our new car, paid 50% more for it. Safety score yesterday was 98, average still 97.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by impatientInv »

Jamil Jutha said he was driving towards Mountain Highway in North Vancouver at 10:00 a.m. Friday when the 2021 Model Y that he purchased just eight months ago suddenly shut down and lost power to all the electronic components.

"The doors wouldn't open. The windows wouldn't go down,” Jutha said

With toxic smoke beginning to fill the cabin through the air vents, Jutha began to panic and quickly made the decision to break his way out of the car.
Image
https://beta.ctvnews.ca/local/british-c ... 7.amp.html

Few others had shared similar experiences, but never with such video evidence.
https://youtu.be/IgZf-auOZxI
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

Sounds like the 12V battery malfunctioned and caught fire. He could've used the manual door release instead of breaking the window but either they didn't know about it or panicked and didn't think of it.

The problem of all these news stories about Tesla fires and accidents are that news outlets largely ignore the rest of the 150-200k car fires a year or the other 6 million car accidents a year.

Does the NHTSA investigate every other car accident to see if cruise control was on and news outlets blaming car manufacturers for providing such a dangerous option for inattentive drivers? The news outlets publish these articles because it's such a polarizing topic which garners clicks/views and then get other people to share links to get even more publicity and revenue. If there was a similar article on any other manufacturer every time there was a car fire or accident it wouldn't get anywhere near the amount of press compared to having Tesla in the title.

Despite these headlines, Tesla still makes the safest cars on the road.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic post regarding Elon Musk's political affiliation. As a reminder, see: Politics and Religion
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As noted earlier, please avoid ranting about Elon Musk.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Valuethinker »

impatientInv wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 2:12 pm TSLA is not the top holding of ARKK anymore. This hasn't happened is 2+ years. With Tesla down 10% today, lets see if Cathie comes in "buys the dip." She must as her price target is $4,800.

Are you buying the dip?

Image
I wonder how many of those stocks even have earnings?

Whereas with the FAANGs (well, not Netflix, which is in a competitive hell situation & should perhaps merge with a sports + news content provider) one is starting to see half sensible multiples, discounting slower future growth.

It's flight to quality. The quality stocks are being gored. The more speculative stocks are being slaughtered. That, too, is consistent with past sectoral boom and bust cycles. What the entry point back in should be is anyone's guess.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

I am currently reading thru this: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/6738702/

Titled: The Renewables Revolution​
Why Mainstream Projections for Future Human Energy Consumption are Wrong by at Least an Order of Magnitude

I do not know who the author is.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Valuethinker »

4nursebee wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 3:59 am I am currently reading thru this: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/6738702/

Titled: The Renewables Revolution​
Why Mainstream Projections for Future Human Energy Consumption are Wrong by at Least an Order of Magnitude

I do not know who the author is.
Energy use per capita appears to flatten out with a certain level of economic development. Partly that is simply offshoring manufacturing to places like China, but it does seem to be a trend.

Danny Dorling's book on The End of Growth is worth a read on this.

We will move towards zero marginal cost for electricity at certain times of the day (peak solar insolation or when the wind is blowing). That will be a different kind of economics. Storage capacity will be key-- whether by batteries, hydrogen economy etc.

I'll discount cheap nuclear fusion for the moment.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by unclescrooge »

Valuethinker wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 4:34 am
4nursebee wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 3:59 am I am currently reading thru this: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/6738702/

Titled: The Renewables Revolution​
Why Mainstream Projections for Future Human Energy Consumption are Wrong by at Least an Order of Magnitude

I do not know who the author is.
Energy use per capita appears to flatten out with a certain level of economic development. Partly that is simply offshoring manufacturing to places like China, but it does seem to be a trend.

Danny Dorling's book on The End of Growth is worth a read on this.

We will move towards zero marginal cost for electricity at certain times of the day (peak solar insolation or when the wind is blowing). That will be a different kind of economics. Storage capacity will be key-- whether by batteries, hydrogen economy etc.

I'll discount cheap nuclear fusion for the moment.
That was my first thought too. Per Capita consumption in California has been flat for decades.

Not sure if Tesla energy is worth $10t, but without a timeline anything is possible.

FWIW, my money is on the arc reactor.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by firebirdparts »

So humor me, are energy estimates an order of magnitude too high or two low? It seems pretty dumb to say too low. I figure half the worlds population uses practically zero, so it could easily double. But to go beyond that seems impossible to me. Much has been said about Teslas role in home PV setups and that could certainly create over time a massive distributed capacity.

I suppose an interested investor could guess how much people would pay for that and get an idea of how big a business that could reasonably be.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by unclescrooge »

firebirdparts wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 5:02 am So humor me, are energy estimates an order of magnitude too high or two low?
I think they might be irrelevant.

In 25 years will have solar/lunar panels that generate energy via solar and moon light almost around the clock for most of the year around the globe.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 4nursebee »

firebirdparts wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 5:02 am So humor me, are energy estimates an order of magnitude too high or two low? It seems pretty dumb to say too low. I figure half the worlds population uses practically zero, so it could easily double. But to go beyond that seems impossible to me. Much has been said about Teslas role in home PV setups and that could certainly create over time a massive distributed capacity.

I suppose an interested investor could guess how much people would pay for that and get an idea of how big a business that could reasonably be.
The link I shared has discussions about this. The gist I got was that the future brings cheaper electricity and drastically increased usage.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by 1nv3s70r »

How are these the "safest cars on the road"? Just last month, had a Tesla slam into a relatives car from the rear when they were stopped at a light. Totaled the car, fortunately no injuries. Automated emergency breaking is supposed to be a thing, apparently it may not actually work when its actually needed. Yeah this is just one anecdote, but to not be able to 100% prevent such a basic collision with such a hyped tech is deserving of criticism IMO.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by manatee2005 »

1nv3s70r wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 4:20 pm How are these the "safest cars on the road"? Just last month, had a Tesla slam into a relatives car from the rear when they were stopped at a light. Totaled the car, fortunately no injuries. Automated emergency breaking is supposed to be a thing, apparently it may not actually work when its actually needed. Yeah this is just one anecdote, but to not be able to 100% prevent such a basic collision with such a hyped tech is deserving of criticism IMO.
When I still rode my bike, Tesla cars were the worst. I always assumed that the driver just left it on autopilot. Every time I had a close call, it was cos of a Tesla.
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Re: TSLA: What Changed?

Post by Nysoz »

1nv3s70r wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 4:20 pm How are these the "safest cars on the road"? Just last month, had a Tesla slam into a relatives car from the rear when they were stopped at a light. Totaled the car, fortunately no injuries. Automated emergency breaking is supposed to be a thing, apparently it may not actually work when its actually needed. Yeah this is just one anecdote, but to not be able to 100% prevent such a basic collision with such a hyped tech is deserving of criticism IMO.
I bolded the most important part. EVs are inherently safer than ICE because of no engine that can cause intrusion into the passenger cabin which also allows a large crumple zone.

Here's an article about a Model 3 going off a cliff and the passengers got out of the car themselves. You can find other similar ones out there.

https://insideevs.com/news/516159/tesla ... -mountain/

Then there's Tesla's data which I do admit is likely skewed.

https://www.tesla.com/VehicleSafetyReport

There's always going to be dumb drivers, driving all types of vehicles. This will lead to an interesting discussion once AI is better at driving cars than the average person in all scenarios, Tesla or some other system. Sure the AI may make mistakes from time to time, but if overall safer, how much safer until the population gives up their freedom of driving?

https://www.bikelaw.com/2021/10/waller-bike-crash/
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