U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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aragorn1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by aragorn1 »

So the bottom was reached last week and now it's time to go up ? Not sure what changed :confused
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AnnetteLouisan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

No, I think this lift is temporary. I’m long term bullish but I don’t think last week was the bottom. But if it was, that’s good too.
Last edited by AnnetteLouisan on Fri May 27, 2022 9:33 am, edited 3 times in total.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

aragorn1 wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 9:28 am So the bottom was reached last week and now it's time to go up ? Not sure what changed :confused
It's a roller coaster. Just keep riding. Don't jump off and get hurt.
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aragorn1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by aragorn1 »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 9:31 am No, I think this lift is temporary. I’m long term bullish but I don’t think last week was the bottom. But if it was, that’s good too.
Why do you think so ?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/27/the-fed ... owing.html
Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

Another few days of this and FOMO brigade will come in heavy. Correction over?
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 9:31 am No, I think this lift is temporary. I’m long term bullish but I don’t think last week was the bottom. But if it was, that’s good too.
No one knows, but inflation is far and away the biggest thorn in this market's side. I'd bet on the side that we've seen peak inflation over betting it will re-accelerate.
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AnnetteLouisan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

aragorn1 wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 9:39 am
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 9:31 am No, I think this lift is temporary. I’m long term bullish but I don’t think last week was the bottom. But if it was, that’s good too.
Why do you think so ?

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/27/the-fed ... owing.html
Although as I’ve commented elsewhere I think the extreme bearishness is overwrought, I heard a podcast a week ago that said markets would go up for 2 weeks and then down again and that inflation would peak In October. Also, capitulation feels different than last week felt. But no one knows and of course podcasts are just noise (except In Investing and Rational Reminder).

I hope it does go up though! I don’t like seeing red in my accounts.
Last edited by AnnetteLouisan on Fri May 27, 2022 10:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
HootingSloth
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HootingSloth »

No idea if this is over or just getting started, but it would be pretty amusing if, just like 2018, we just barely avoid the point where the media gets to triumphantly shout "BEAR!" because of technicalities about what index you use and only using closing day prices.
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freyj6
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by freyj6 »

It's so interesting watching the sentiment change with the ups and downs. New low? Prepare for another 30% drop. Green for 3 days? Everything looks good!
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 9:16 am "The whole market is doing a rates vol relief trade, from FX, credit to equities. The cross asset question now is two fold, has rate vol peaked for this cycle and what is its new range?" -- Jon Turek tweet link
Unless he can answer the two questions accurately, what's the point of the tweet?

The above is about as useful as:

"The market is moving today... The question now is two fold, which direction will the market move and how much?"
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

freyj6 wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 10:01 am It's so interesting watching the sentiment change with the ups and downs. New low? Prepare for another 30% drop. Green for 3 days? Everything looks good!
We humans are interesting animals, that's for sure.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

HootingSloth wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 9:56 am No idea if this is over or just getting started, but it would be pretty amusing if, just like 2018, we just barely avoid the point where the media gets to triumphantly shout "BEAR!" because of technicalities about what index you use and only using closing day prices.
That would be the third time that happened in the last 7 years - 2015 we touched something like -19.5%, 2018 is was around that too, and I think 2022 we closed around that level as well. All 3 times his bear market intraday.
vaylie
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vaylie »

My completely scientific theory is that every time I receive my paycheck and my deductions/contributions get invested is always the day stock prices soar. Then they immediately fall afterwards.
HootingSloth
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HootingSloth »

atdharris wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 10:02 am
HootingSloth wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 9:56 am No idea if this is over or just getting started, but it would be pretty amusing if, just like 2018, we just barely avoid the point where the media gets to triumphantly shout "BEAR!" because of technicalities about what index you use and only using closing day prices.
That would be the third time that happened in the last 7 years - 2015 we touched something like -19.5%, 2018 is was around that too, and I think 2022 we closed around that level as well. All 3 times his bear market intraday.
I hadn't remembered that about 2015 (and I think 2011 had a pretty large drawdown too?). If it does happen to play out this way (no idea whether it will or won't), I am sure that some enterprising commentators will find a way to use a duration-of-drawdown or other caveat to exclude COVID so they can keep claiming that we are in the Longest-Bull-Market-In-History(TM) and can increasingly hyperventilate about it (until their "predictions" are "proven" right because some event they could not possibly have foreseen eventually causes a deep and persistent crash).
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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

HootingSloth wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 10:12 am
atdharris wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 10:02 am
HootingSloth wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 9:56 am No idea if this is over or just getting started, but it would be pretty amusing if, just like 2018, we just barely avoid the point where the media gets to triumphantly shout "BEAR!" because of technicalities about what index you use and only using closing day prices.
That would be the third time that happened in the last 7 years - 2015 we touched something like -19.5%, 2018 is was around that too, and I think 2022 we closed around that level as well. All 3 times his bear market intraday.
I hadn't remembered that about 2015 (and I think 2011 had a pretty large drawdown too?). If it does happen to play out this way (no idea whether it will or won't), I am sure that some enterprising commentators will find a way to use a duration-of-drawdown or other caveat to exclude COVID so they can keep claiming that we are in the Longest-Bull-Market-In-History(TM) and can increasingly hyperventilate about it (until their "predictions" are "proven" right because some event they could not possibly have foreseen eventually causes a deep and persistent crash).
I think 2011 did as well, yes, but I think it popped up after it touched bear market territory. The only time we truly crashed through that level was during Covid, but we had external forces that caused that to happen.
KineticSync
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by KineticSync »

vaylie wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 10:05 am My completely scientific theory is that every time I receive my paycheck and my deductions/contributions get invested is always the day stock prices soar. Then they immediately fall afterwards.
I can provide independent confirmation of your theory. Many, many times this year...
H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town »

maybe the market heard about "fake pump and dump" and "imma buy inverse etf since i'm 95% sure of what gonna happen" and decided that it has enough?
Time is the ultimate currency.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

HomerJ wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 10:01 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 9:16 am "The whole market is doing a rates vol relief trade, from FX, credit to equities. The cross asset question now is two fold, has rate vol peaked for this cycle and what is its new range?" -- Jon Turek tweet link
Unless he can answer the two questions accurately, what's the point of the tweet?

The above is about as useful as:

"The market is moving today... The question now is two fold, which direction will the market move and how much?"
I just thought it was interesting he thinks this is a "rates vol relief trade" across bonds, stocks, and FX.
elderwise
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by elderwise »

Candor wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 3:49 pm
elderwise wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 11:43 am
Dry-Drink wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 11:40 am The “fake pump” brigade awfully quiet today…
I've got 2x Inverse daq100 etn FNGD (2 shr only tho) as I am 95% sure this is another fake pump that will barely last 2 days..

Also got NRGD 3x inverse oil :mrgreen: .
2 shares? For a total of what $140? Now that's a commitment, lol.
True to my commitment I have averaged down to 2 more shares of 3X bear etn Fngd at 64.5 limit.

I still feel this is a super fake rally..all courtesy feds the underlying issues are deep.

:sharebeer
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Yesterdaysnews
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

If inflation continues to head downward, bullish imo. JPow is slaying the inflation beast just by talking about what they are planning to do.... that is something.
ClassII
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ClassII »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 10:45 am If inflation continues to head downward, bullish imo. JPow is slaying the inflation beast just by talking about what they are planning to do.... that is something.
Basically the main job of the Fed Chair. Merely whisper about possibly looking into maybe changing interest rates and the whole economy turns course.

But seriously just because inflation is appearing to ebb just a tick doesn't mean the Fed is going to stop tightening. If anything we need to keep raising rates and decreasing the balance sheet as much as possible as long as the economy can support it. It might not be wide-open-throttle like the last year but then again that wasn't great either. If I was Powell I'd be happy if the economy goes sideways for a few years just so the Fed can gain altitude with interest rates to be ready for the next real recession.
Last edited by ClassII on Fri May 27, 2022 10:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
bagastuff
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bagastuff »

freyj6 wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 10:01 am It's so interesting watching the sentiment change with the ups and downs. New low? Prepare for another 30% drop. Green for 3 days? Everything looks good!
Panic is a powerful emotion. Maybe helpful if you're a herd animal but less so for investors or traders.

The last few weeks have technically been negative but in retrospect it's been closer to sideways chop for 6 weeks in many sectors. As of right now, semiconductors are up compared to April 11, and that's been one of the areas hardest hit by the pullback.

Everyone really needs to avoid checking the markets more than once a quarter and we'll all be ok.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

When I heard the good news on the inflation front, I assumed my TIPS would underperform nominal bonds, but the opposite is happening, by just a bit. At the moment, for instance:

Long-term TIPS (LTPZ) +0.81%
Long-term nominal (EDV) +0.56%
H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town »

elderwise wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 10:40 am
Candor wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 3:49 pm
elderwise wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 11:43 am
Dry-Drink wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 11:40 am The “fake pump” brigade awfully quiet today…
I've got 2x Inverse daq100 etn FNGD (2 shr only tho) as I am 95% sure this is another fake pump that will barely last 2 days..

Also got NRGD 3x inverse oil :mrgreen: .
2 shares? For a total of what $140? Now that's a commitment, lol.
True to my commitment I have averaged down to 2 more shares of 3X bear etn Fngd at 64.5 limit.

I still feel this is a super fake rally..all courtesy feds the underlying issues are deep.

:sharebeer
why just 2 shares if you are so confident?
Time is the ultimate currency.
H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town »

too soon to call new ATH on July 1, 2022? :shock:
Time is the ultimate currency.
elderwise
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by elderwise »

H-Town wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 11:03 am
elderwise wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 10:40 am
Candor wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 3:49 pm
elderwise wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 11:43 am
Dry-Drink wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 11:40 am The “fake pump” brigade awfully quiet today…
I've got 2x Inverse daq100 etn FNGD (2 shr only tho) as I am 95% sure this is another fake pump that will barely last 2 days..

Also got NRGD 3x inverse oil :mrgreen: .
2 shares? For a total of what $140? Now that's a commitment, lol.
True to my commitment I have averaged down to 2 more shares of 3X bear etn Fngd at 64.5 limit.

I still feel this is a super fake rally..all courtesy feds the underlying issues are deep.

:sharebeer
why just 2 shares if you are so confident?
I did this mistake last time I went a bit more at high 60s only to see FNGD go ATL to 35$ so I will buy more closer to 35 to 40 45$ range.

I am going to learn a lesson either I am wrong or right 🤪
gonefishing01
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by gonefishing01 »

elderwise wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 11:09 am
H-Town wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 11:03 am
elderwise wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 10:40 am
Candor wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 3:49 pm
elderwise wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 11:43 am

I've got 2x Inverse daq100 etn FNGD (2 shr only tho) as I am 95% sure this is another fake pump that will barely last 2 days..

Also got NRGD 3x inverse oil :mrgreen: .
2 shares? For a total of what $140? Now that's a commitment, lol.
True to my commitment I have averaged down to 2 more shares of 3X bear etn Fngd at 64.5 limit.

I still feel this is a super fake rally..all courtesy feds the underlying issues are deep.

:sharebeer
why just 2 shares if you are so confident?
I did this mistake last time I went a bit more at high 60s only to see FNGD go ATL to 35$ so I will buy more closer to 35 to 40 45$ range.

I am going to learn a lesson either I am wrong or right 🤪
Hehe, I’m not super optimistic that we’re done going lower either, but the lesson learned may be: “Confirmed. Hot stove is hot.” Best of luck to you! :D
Drolen
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Drolen »

H-Town wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 11:04 am too soon to call new ATH on July 1, 2022? :shock:
It does need to happen quick. We still have a bit to go to get to 5334.54, which is where this year will end as I predicted in the 2022 contest. :shock:
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

H-Town wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 10:27 am maybe the market heard about "fake pump and dump" and "imma buy inverse etf since i'm 95% sure of what gonna happen" and decided that it has enough?
The market got sick of reading those posts...
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willinghamt19
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willinghamt19 »

atdharris wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 9:42 am
AnnetteLouisan wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 9:31 am No, I think this lift is temporary. I’m long term bullish but I don’t think last week was the bottom. But if it was, that’s good too.
No one knows, but inflation is far and away the biggest thorn in this market's side. I'd bet on the side that we've seen peak inflation over betting it will re-accelerate.
I’m leaning toward re-accelerate unless fiscal policy counteracts the positive wealth effect of rising interest rates. It may take a little while to come together though.
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ResearchMed
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ResearchMed »

bagastuff wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 10:52 am
freyj6 wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 10:01 am It's so interesting watching the sentiment change with the ups and downs. New low? Prepare for another 30% drop. Green for 3 days? Everything looks good!
Panic is a powerful emotion. Maybe helpful if you're a herd animal but less so for investors or traders.

The last few weeks have technically been negative but in retrospect it's been closer to sideways chop for 6 weeks in many sectors. As of right now, semiconductors are up compared to April 11, and that's been one of the areas hardest hit by the pullback.

Everyone really needs to avoid checking the markets more than once a quarter and we'll all be ok.
Alas. humans *are* herd animals in too many situations.

ZAPP! - "MARKET IS FALLING!" -->> everyone (many or almost everyone/etc.) stampedes to sell.
BOOM! - MARKET IS RISING!" -->> everyone (many or almost everyone/etc.) stampedes to buy.

Rinse, repeat, rinse, repeat......, and the savanna grasses bank balances get trampled.

RM
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

It's funny. S&P at 4,100 today and people are optimistic. S&P at 4,100 a month and people were panicking.
drk
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by drk »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 11:46 am It's funny. S&P at 4,100 today and people are optimistic. S&P at 4,100 a month and people were panicking.
I'm annoyed because I was a week away from being able to TLH back into VTI. Does that help?
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exodusNH
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by exodusNH »

drk wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 12:00 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 11:46 am It's funny. S&P at 4,100 today and people are optimistic. S&P at 4,100 a month and people were panicking.
I'm annoyed because I was a week away from being able to TLH back into VTI. Does that help?
I know! I'm in ITOT since I had already burned VV and have a S&P 500 fund in my 401k, though I need to wait until June 20.
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canadianbacon
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by canadianbacon »

HanSolo wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 10:12 pm
canadianbacon wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 2:45 pm Great day, if there’s one thing I am certain of, it’s that this rally is not fake and will hold up. :-D
So you're 100% in call options? Certainty sounds like a good thing... if you're certain.
If I try to open an options trade at my brokerage I get a pop up error “You are too dumb to do this. Stick to ETFs.”
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by H-Town »

drk wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 12:00 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 11:46 am It's funny. S&P at 4,100 today and people are optimistic. S&P at 4,100 a month and people were panicking.
I'm annoyed because I was a week away from being able to TLH back into VTI. Does that help?
I'm 1 day away from being able to do a round-trip back to VTI.... but I'm not complaining.
Time is the ultimate currency.
Doc7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doc7 »

exodusNH wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 12:09 pm
drk wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 12:00 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 11:46 am It's funny. S&P at 4,100 today and people are optimistic. S&P at 4,100 a month and people were panicking.
I'm annoyed because I was a week away from being able to TLH back into VTI. Does that help?
I know! I'm in ITOT since I had already burned VV and have a S&P 500 fund in my 401k, though I need to wait until June 20.

ITOT (my default cause I like the $100 price range for percentage calculations in my head)
SCHB
SPTM
VTHR
VV
SFY
FZROX
FNILX
FLCOX
elderwise
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by elderwise »

Taper in progress.
drk
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by drk »

exodusNH wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 12:09 pm I know! I'm in ITOT since I had already burned VV and have a S&P 500 fund in my 401k, though I need to wait until June 20.
Are you in the market for alternatives? Because the wiki has a collection. :D
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
exodusNH
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by exodusNH »

drk wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 12:50 pm
exodusNH wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 12:09 pm I know! I'm in ITOT since I had already burned VV and have a S&P 500 fund in my 401k, though I need to wait until June 20.
Are you in the market for alternatives? Because the wiki has a collection. :D
I think ITOT is all up right now. Was hoping to be able to get back to VTI. I went with ITOT to stay total market, just in case I didn't get an opportunity to get back out.
drk
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by drk »

H-Town wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 12:11 pm I'm 1 day away from being able to do a round-trip back to VTI.... but I'm not complaining.
I'm just trying to keep things fair and balanced here. :twisted:
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
strummer6969
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by strummer6969 »

Market is faking it till it makes it?
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

drk wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 12:00 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 11:46 am It's funny. S&P at 4,100 today and people are optimistic. S&P at 4,100 a month and people were panicking.
I'm annoyed because I was a week away from being able to TLH back into VTI. Does that help?
I'm so sorry :(
Grogs
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Grogs »

H-Town wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 12:11 pm
drk wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 12:00 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 11:46 am It's funny. S&P at 4,100 today and people are optimistic. S&P at 4,100 a month and people were panicking.
I'm annoyed because I was a week away from being able to TLH back into VTI. Does that help?
I'm 1 day away from being able to do a round-trip back to VTI.... but I'm not complaining.
Yeah, really a bummer. I mean, I'm happy to see markets go up, but I wish they could have waited. Today is the first day I can complete my VTSAX to VLCAX to VTSAX round trip. Last Friday, I had over $3500 in additional losses. Today it's down to under $500 and may even end the day with a gain. Do I even put in an order and risk a gain, or hold and risk being stuck in VLCAX forever?

This is also pay day, so I'll be buying one way or the other, I just wish it wasn't on a big up day at the end of a really big up week.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

elderwise wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 12:45 pm Taper in progress.
Melting up now.

To the moon!
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
case_of_ennui
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by case_of_ennui »

Good work today everyone.
carminered2019
Posts: 1939
Joined: Fri Jun 21, 2019 7:06 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by carminered2019 »

Nice, I might up another 2x today. :beer
exodusNH
Posts: 10347
Joined: Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:21 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by exodusNH »

Grogs wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 2:28 pm
H-Town wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 12:11 pm
drk wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 12:00 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri May 27, 2022 11:46 am It's funny. S&P at 4,100 today and people are optimistic. S&P at 4,100 a month and people were panicking.
I'm annoyed because I was a week away from being able to TLH back into VTI. Does that help?
I'm 1 day away from being able to do a round-trip back to VTI.... but I'm not complaining.
Yeah, really a bummer. I mean, I'm happy to see markets go up, but I wish they could have waited. Today is the first day I can complete my VTSAX to VLCAX to VTSAX round trip. Last Friday, I had over $3500 in additional losses. Today it's down to under $500 and may even end the day with a gain. Do I even put in an order and risk a gain, or hold and risk being stuck in VLCAX forever?

This is also pay day, so I'll be buying one way or the other, I just wish it wasn't on a big up day at the end of a really big up week.
Since VLCAX has the VV ETF equivalent, you could monitor that and make the call at 3:58. While the price per share is different, the relative movement should basically be the same.
newyorker
Posts: 1635
Joined: Sun May 17, 2020 7:59 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by newyorker »

We still have 20min to market closing. Cant relax yet.
Robot Monster
Posts: 4215
Joined: Sun May 05, 2019 11:23 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Come on stonks!!! *rips shirt off*
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