U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
So the bottom was reached last week and now it's time to go up ? Not sure what changed
- AnnetteLouisan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
No, I think this lift is temporary. I’m long term bullish but I don’t think last week was the bottom. But if it was, that’s good too.
Last edited by AnnetteLouisan on Fri May 27, 2022 9:33 am, edited 3 times in total.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It's a roller coaster. Just keep riding. Don't jump off and get hurt.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Why do you think so ?AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 9:31 am No, I think this lift is temporary. I’m long term bullish but I don’t think last week was the bottom. But if it was, that’s good too.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/27/the-fed ... owing.html
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Another few days of this and FOMO brigade will come in heavy. Correction over?
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
No one knows, but inflation is far and away the biggest thorn in this market's side. I'd bet on the side that we've seen peak inflation over betting it will re-accelerate.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 9:31 am No, I think this lift is temporary. I’m long term bullish but I don’t think last week was the bottom. But if it was, that’s good too.
- AnnetteLouisan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Although as I’ve commented elsewhere I think the extreme bearishness is overwrought, I heard a podcast a week ago that said markets would go up for 2 weeks and then down again and that inflation would peak In October. Also, capitulation feels different than last week felt. But no one knows and of course podcasts are just noise (except In Investing and Rational Reminder).aragorn1 wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 9:39 amWhy do you think so ?AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 9:31 am No, I think this lift is temporary. I’m long term bullish but I don’t think last week was the bottom. But if it was, that’s good too.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/27/the-fed ... owing.html
I hope it does go up though! I don’t like seeing red in my accounts.
Last edited by AnnetteLouisan on Fri May 27, 2022 10:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
No idea if this is over or just getting started, but it would be pretty amusing if, just like 2018, we just barely avoid the point where the media gets to triumphantly shout "BEAR!" because of technicalities about what index you use and only using closing day prices.
Global Market Portfolio + modest tilt towards volatility (80/20->60/40 as approach FI) + modest tilt away from exchange rate risk (80% global+20% U.S. stocks; currency-hedge bonds) + tax optimization
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It's so interesting watching the sentiment change with the ups and downs. New low? Prepare for another 30% drop. Green for 3 days? Everything looks good!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Unless he can answer the two questions accurately, what's the point of the tweet?Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 9:16 am "The whole market is doing a rates vol relief trade, from FX, credit to equities. The cross asset question now is two fold, has rate vol peaked for this cycle and what is its new range?" -- Jon Turek tweet link
The above is about as useful as:
"The market is moving today... The question now is two fold, which direction will the market move and how much?"
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
We humans are interesting animals, that's for sure.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
That would be the third time that happened in the last 7 years - 2015 we touched something like -19.5%, 2018 is was around that too, and I think 2022 we closed around that level as well. All 3 times his bear market intraday.HootingSloth wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 9:56 am No idea if this is over or just getting started, but it would be pretty amusing if, just like 2018, we just barely avoid the point where the media gets to triumphantly shout "BEAR!" because of technicalities about what index you use and only using closing day prices.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
My completely scientific theory is that every time I receive my paycheck and my deductions/contributions get invested is always the day stock prices soar. Then they immediately fall afterwards.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I hadn't remembered that about 2015 (and I think 2011 had a pretty large drawdown too?). If it does happen to play out this way (no idea whether it will or won't), I am sure that some enterprising commentators will find a way to use a duration-of-drawdown or other caveat to exclude COVID so they can keep claiming that we are in the Longest-Bull-Market-In-History(TM) and can increasingly hyperventilate about it (until their "predictions" are "proven" right because some event they could not possibly have foreseen eventually causes a deep and persistent crash).atdharris wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 10:02 amThat would be the third time that happened in the last 7 years - 2015 we touched something like -19.5%, 2018 is was around that too, and I think 2022 we closed around that level as well. All 3 times his bear market intraday.HootingSloth wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 9:56 am No idea if this is over or just getting started, but it would be pretty amusing if, just like 2018, we just barely avoid the point where the media gets to triumphantly shout "BEAR!" because of technicalities about what index you use and only using closing day prices.
Global Market Portfolio + modest tilt towards volatility (80/20->60/40 as approach FI) + modest tilt away from exchange rate risk (80% global+20% U.S. stocks; currency-hedge bonds) + tax optimization
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I think 2011 did as well, yes, but I think it popped up after it touched bear market territory. The only time we truly crashed through that level was during Covid, but we had external forces that caused that to happen.HootingSloth wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 10:12 amI hadn't remembered that about 2015 (and I think 2011 had a pretty large drawdown too?). If it does happen to play out this way (no idea whether it will or won't), I am sure that some enterprising commentators will find a way to use a duration-of-drawdown or other caveat to exclude COVID so they can keep claiming that we are in the Longest-Bull-Market-In-History(TM) and can increasingly hyperventilate about it (until their "predictions" are "proven" right because some event they could not possibly have foreseen eventually causes a deep and persistent crash).atdharris wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 10:02 amThat would be the third time that happened in the last 7 years - 2015 we touched something like -19.5%, 2018 is was around that too, and I think 2022 we closed around that level as well. All 3 times his bear market intraday.HootingSloth wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 9:56 am No idea if this is over or just getting started, but it would be pretty amusing if, just like 2018, we just barely avoid the point where the media gets to triumphantly shout "BEAR!" because of technicalities about what index you use and only using closing day prices.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I can provide independent confirmation of your theory. Many, many times this year...
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
maybe the market heard about "fake pump and dump" and "imma buy inverse etf since i'm 95% sure of what gonna happen" and decided that it has enough?
Time is the ultimate currency.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I just thought it was interesting he thinks this is a "rates vol relief trade" across bonds, stocks, and FX.HomerJ wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 10:01 amUnless he can answer the two questions accurately, what's the point of the tweet?Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 9:16 am "The whole market is doing a rates vol relief trade, from FX, credit to equities. The cross asset question now is two fold, has rate vol peaked for this cycle and what is its new range?" -- Jon Turek tweet link
The above is about as useful as:
"The market is moving today... The question now is two fold, which direction will the market move and how much?"
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
- Yesterdaysnews
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If inflation continues to head downward, bullish imo. JPow is slaying the inflation beast just by talking about what they are planning to do.... that is something.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Basically the main job of the Fed Chair. Merely whisper about possibly looking into maybe changing interest rates and the whole economy turns course.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 10:45 am If inflation continues to head downward, bullish imo. JPow is slaying the inflation beast just by talking about what they are planning to do.... that is something.
But seriously just because inflation is appearing to ebb just a tick doesn't mean the Fed is going to stop tightening. If anything we need to keep raising rates and decreasing the balance sheet as much as possible as long as the economy can support it. It might not be wide-open-throttle like the last year but then again that wasn't great either. If I was Powell I'd be happy if the economy goes sideways for a few years just so the Fed can gain altitude with interest rates to be ready for the next real recession.
Last edited by ClassII on Fri May 27, 2022 10:52 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Panic is a powerful emotion. Maybe helpful if you're a herd animal but less so for investors or traders.
The last few weeks have technically been negative but in retrospect it's been closer to sideways chop for 6 weeks in many sectors. As of right now, semiconductors are up compared to April 11, and that's been one of the areas hardest hit by the pullback.
Everyone really needs to avoid checking the markets more than once a quarter and we'll all be ok.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
When I heard the good news on the inflation front, I assumed my TIPS would underperform nominal bonds, but the opposite is happening, by just a bit. At the moment, for instance:
Long-term TIPS (LTPZ) +0.81%
Long-term nominal (EDV) +0.56%
Long-term TIPS (LTPZ) +0.81%
Long-term nominal (EDV) +0.56%
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
why just 2 shares if you are so confident?elderwise wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 10:40 amTrue to my commitment I have averaged down to 2 more shares of 3X bear etn Fngd at 64.5 limit.
I still feel this is a super fake rally..all courtesy feds the underlying issues are deep.
Time is the ultimate currency.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
too soon to call new ATH on July 1, 2022?
Time is the ultimate currency.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I did this mistake last time I went a bit more at high 60s only to see FNGD go ATL to 35$ so I will buy more closer to 35 to 40 45$ range.H-Town wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 11:03 amwhy just 2 shares if you are so confident?elderwise wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 10:40 amTrue to my commitment I have averaged down to 2 more shares of 3X bear etn Fngd at 64.5 limit.
I still feel this is a super fake rally..all courtesy feds the underlying issues are deep.
I am going to learn a lesson either I am wrong or right
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Hehe, I’m not super optimistic that we’re done going lower either, but the lesson learned may be: “Confirmed. Hot stove is hot.” Best of luck to you!elderwise wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 11:09 amI did this mistake last time I went a bit more at high 60s only to see FNGD go ATL to 35$ so I will buy more closer to 35 to 40 45$ range.H-Town wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 11:03 amwhy just 2 shares if you are so confident?elderwise wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 10:40 amTrue to my commitment I have averaged down to 2 more shares of 3X bear etn Fngd at 64.5 limit.
I still feel this is a super fake rally..all courtesy feds the underlying issues are deep.
I am going to learn a lesson either I am wrong or right
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The market got sick of reading those posts...
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I’m leaning toward re-accelerate unless fiscal policy counteracts the positive wealth effect of rising interest rates. It may take a little while to come together though.atdharris wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 9:42 amNo one knows, but inflation is far and away the biggest thorn in this market's side. I'd bet on the side that we've seen peak inflation over betting it will re-accelerate.AnnetteLouisan wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 9:31 am No, I think this lift is temporary. I’m long term bullish but I don’t think last week was the bottom. But if it was, that’s good too.
- ResearchMed
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Alas. humans *are* herd animals in too many situations.bagastuff wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 10:52 amPanic is a powerful emotion. Maybe helpful if you're a herd animal but less so for investors or traders.
The last few weeks have technically been negative but in retrospect it's been closer to sideways chop for 6 weeks in many sectors. As of right now, semiconductors are up compared to April 11, and that's been one of the areas hardest hit by the pullback.
Everyone really needs to avoid checking the markets more than once a quarter and we'll all be ok.
ZAPP! - "MARKET IS FALLING!" -->> everyone (many or almost everyone/etc.) stampedes to sell.
BOOM! - MARKET IS RISING!" -->> everyone (many or almost everyone/etc.) stampedes to buy.
Rinse, repeat, rinse, repeat......, and the savanna grasses bank balances get trampled.
RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It's funny. S&P at 4,100 today and people are optimistic. S&P at 4,100 a month and people were panicking.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'm annoyed because I was a week away from being able to TLH back into VTI. Does that help?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 11:46 am It's funny. S&P at 4,100 today and people are optimistic. S&P at 4,100 a month and people were panicking.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I know! I'm in ITOT since I had already burned VV and have a S&P 500 fund in my 401k, though I need to wait until June 20.drk wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 12:00 pmI'm annoyed because I was a week away from being able to TLH back into VTI. Does that help?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 11:46 am It's funny. S&P at 4,100 today and people are optimistic. S&P at 4,100 a month and people were panicking.
- canadianbacon
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If I try to open an options trade at my brokerage I get a pop up error “You are too dumb to do this. Stick to ETFs.”HanSolo wrote: ↑Thu May 26, 2022 10:12 pmSo you're 100% in call options? Certainty sounds like a good thing... if you're certain.canadianbacon wrote: ↑Wed May 25, 2022 2:45 pm Great day, if there’s one thing I am certain of, it’s that this rally is not fake and will hold up.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'm 1 day away from being able to do a round-trip back to VTI.... but I'm not complaining.drk wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 12:00 pmI'm annoyed because I was a week away from being able to TLH back into VTI. Does that help?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 11:46 am It's funny. S&P at 4,100 today and people are optimistic. S&P at 4,100 a month and people were panicking.
Time is the ultimate currency.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
exodusNH wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 12:09 pmI know! I'm in ITOT since I had already burned VV and have a S&P 500 fund in my 401k, though I need to wait until June 20.drk wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 12:00 pmI'm annoyed because I was a week away from being able to TLH back into VTI. Does that help?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 11:46 am It's funny. S&P at 4,100 today and people are optimistic. S&P at 4,100 a month and people were panicking.
ITOT (my default cause I like the $100 price range for percentage calculations in my head)
SCHB
SPTM
VTHR
VV
SFY
FZROX
FNILX
FLCOX
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Taper in progress.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Are you in the market for alternatives? Because the wiki has a collection.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I think ITOT is all up right now. Was hoping to be able to get back to VTI. I went with ITOT to stay total market, just in case I didn't get an opportunity to get back out.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'm just trying to keep things fair and balanced here.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Market is faking it till it makes it?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'm so sorrydrk wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 12:00 pmI'm annoyed because I was a week away from being able to TLH back into VTI. Does that help?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 11:46 am It's funny. S&P at 4,100 today and people are optimistic. S&P at 4,100 a month and people were panicking.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yeah, really a bummer. I mean, I'm happy to see markets go up, but I wish they could have waited. Today is the first day I can complete my VTSAX to VLCAX to VTSAX round trip. Last Friday, I had over $3500 in additional losses. Today it's down to under $500 and may even end the day with a gain. Do I even put in an order and risk a gain, or hold and risk being stuck in VLCAX forever?H-Town wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 12:11 pmI'm 1 day away from being able to do a round-trip back to VTI.... but I'm not complaining.drk wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 12:00 pmI'm annoyed because I was a week away from being able to TLH back into VTI. Does that help?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 11:46 am It's funny. S&P at 4,100 today and people are optimistic. S&P at 4,100 a month and people were panicking.
This is also pay day, so I'll be buying one way or the other, I just wish it wasn't on a big up day at the end of a really big up week.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Good work today everyone.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Nice, I might up another 2x today.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Since VLCAX has the VV ETF equivalent, you could monitor that and make the call at 3:58. While the price per share is different, the relative movement should basically be the same.Grogs wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 2:28 pmYeah, really a bummer. I mean, I'm happy to see markets go up, but I wish they could have waited. Today is the first day I can complete my VTSAX to VLCAX to VTSAX round trip. Last Friday, I had over $3500 in additional losses. Today it's down to under $500 and may even end the day with a gain. Do I even put in an order and risk a gain, or hold and risk being stuck in VLCAX forever?H-Town wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 12:11 pmI'm 1 day away from being able to do a round-trip back to VTI.... but I'm not complaining.drk wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 12:00 pmI'm annoyed because I was a week away from being able to TLH back into VTI. Does that help?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Fri May 27, 2022 11:46 am It's funny. S&P at 4,100 today and people are optimistic. S&P at 4,100 a month and people were panicking.
This is also pay day, so I'll be buying one way or the other, I just wish it wasn't on a big up day at the end of a really big up week.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
We still have 20min to market closing. Cant relax yet.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Come on stonks!!! *rips shirt off*