U.S. stocks in free fall

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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:27 pm
elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:24 pm @atdharris i think your right something holds us at 20% then we go up...for now that seems to be the floor.
I pray that -20% is the floor.

What are the latest scores for consumer sentiment?
I hope so too. Theoretically, we could trade sideways for the foreseeable future at this level. Perhaps if next month's report shows that inflation has peaked, we could finally start some form of a move higher. But I think it will take at least that or we're in purgatory for a while.
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

Third time is a charm. This is a great graph.

https://twitter.com/michaelburry_/statu ... 73/photo/1

It's going down. Queue Aerosmith.
Mrmetalpole
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Mrmetalpole »

What does SNAP earnings have to do with inflation on gas, groceries, cars, homes?
strummer6969
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by strummer6969 »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:29 pm "UK Consumer Confidence Falls to Its Lowest Level Since 1970s"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ince-1970s

"Consumer sentiment in Canada posts biggest drop since pandemic onset amid inflation"
https://www.investmentexecutive.com/new ... inflation/

"Global consumer confidence remains on a downward path"
https://www.ipsos.com/en/global-consume ... x-may-2022

:(
Isn't this exactly what the Fed wants to tame inflation - less consumer confidence and spending? I'll have to dig up the link but Brian Monahan CEO of BOA said today that their average customer account has way more savings as before Covid and less credit card debt.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 2:04 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:29 pm "UK Consumer Confidence Falls to Its Lowest Level Since 1970s"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ince-1970s

"Consumer sentiment in Canada posts biggest drop since pandemic onset amid inflation"
https://www.investmentexecutive.com/new ... inflation/

"Global consumer confidence remains on a downward path"
https://www.ipsos.com/en/global-consume ... x-may-2022

:(
Isn't this exactly what the Fed wants to tame inflation - less consumer confidence and spending? I'll have to dig up the link but Brian Monahan CEO of BOA said today that their average customer account has way more savings as before Covid and less credit card debt.
Well, that is to be expected when a lot of people didn't go out/travel like they once did, and a large chunk of the population received thousands in stimulus money.
tfunk
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by tfunk »

Keenobserver wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:58 am Should we really be bracing for 08 repeat? What can pull the rug the same as 08?
I am a little concerned about BBB corporates going from 35% of the total bond market to over 55% in the past 10 years. Not sure how these will hold up in an increasing interest rate environment.
alfaspider
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alfaspider »

Huge diversion between the Dow and Nasdaq today. Dow is almost even while NASDAQ is down almost 3%.

I suppose it serves to reason given that Nasdaq way outperformed the market during the 2020-2021 timeframe. A lot more froth in the tech space than elsewhere.
gougou
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gougou »

Mrmetalpole wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 2:04 pm What does SNAP earnings have to do with inflation on gas, groceries, cars, homes?
If you have to spend a lot more money on gas, groceries, cars, rent, you’ll have less money to waste on discretionary products. Those fancy, high margin, useless products provide the advertising dollars that SNAP, FB, GOOG try to capture.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

This isn't U.S. stocks in free fall. It's tech stocks, ARKK, and the likes.
Time is the ultimate currency.
elderwise
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by elderwise »

just when you thought it was over -

more bad..news..

US to end Russia’s ability to pay international investors - Associated Press. COB 05/25 not sure how this will affect ( russian govt default (bond) )
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Stinky »

ClassII wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:33 am
lostdog wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:31 am
Firemenot wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:57 am
atdharris wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:50 am
homebuyer6426 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:43 am Perhaps today we will officially be in the bear market, unlike Friday's tease.
Yes. I am growing tired of these fake bounces each time the S&P approaches -20%. Just get us to the bear market already
So much in this thread about “pump”, “fake”, “bots” and the like — as if nefarious forces are at work. Market is just volatile right now as people trying to get more clarity on what the future holds for earnings.
This is the CNBC thread of bogleheads.org...
AKA the "this is why bogleheads's philosophy really works" thread.
It’s more like Comedy Central. :twisted:
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
alfaspider
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alfaspider »

elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 2:36 pm just when you thought it was over -

more bad..news..

US to end Russia’s ability to pay international investors - Associated Press. COB 05/25 not sure how this will affect ( russian govt default (bond) )
I don't think a Russian default will mean all that much outside of Russia. The total amount of outstanding Russian bonds is not terribly high in the context of the world economy.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 2:04 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:29 pm "UK Consumer Confidence Falls to Its Lowest Level Since 1970s"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ince-1970s

"Consumer sentiment in Canada posts biggest drop since pandemic onset amid inflation"
https://www.investmentexecutive.com/new ... inflation/

"Global consumer confidence remains on a downward path"
https://www.ipsos.com/en/global-consume ... x-may-2022

:(
Isn't this exactly what the Fed wants to tame inflation - less consumer confidence and spending? I'll have to dig up the link but Brian Monahan CEO of BOA said today that their average customer account has way more savings as before Covid and less credit card debt.
Record debt: Consumers are racking up credit card debt at record rates
https://www.valleynewslive.com/2022/05/ ... ord-rates/
elderwise
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by elderwise »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:01 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 2:04 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:29 pm "UK Consumer Confidence Falls to Its Lowest Level Since 1970s"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ince-1970s

"Consumer sentiment in Canada posts biggest drop since pandemic onset amid inflation"
https://www.investmentexecutive.com/new ... inflation/

"Global consumer confidence remains on a downward path"
https://www.ipsos.com/en/global-consume ... x-may-2022

:(
Isn't this exactly what the Fed wants to tame inflation - less consumer confidence and spending? I'll have to dig up the link but Brian Monahan CEO of BOA said today that their average customer account has way more savings as before Covid and less credit card debt.
Record debt: Consumers are racking up credit card debt at record rates
https://www.valleynewslive.com/2022/05/ ... ord-rates/
What gonna happen when we get 0% apr with 20k limits

And ontop when I see those threads about First Republic with 2.5% 7 yr term upto 100K asking about what stocks to invest...

Leverage upon leverage and imagine someone buying 100k tqqq at ATH before this tank..granted still its not a heloc...

Reminds me of WSB guys using student loan payments to yolo on FD's which have 95 or 98% probability of expiring worthless Vs hitting a 10 bagger.its sad.

our borrowing and debt is messed up (consumer)
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Stocks are doing what stocks do.

From 2000 until now, the real return is 4.33% annually.

For a globally diversified 60% U.S. and 40% international portfolio, the real return is 3.13% annually.

For a globally diversified portfolio with 40% bonds, the real return is 3.00% annually.

These are not bad returns. Certainly not jaw dropping, but if you have a decent savings rate and buy, hold, and rebalance and treat your investments as just that, investments, you will come out fine. The time period I chose is at a high starting point and after a roughly 20% drop. Most 22+ year periods will probably have higher returns, but obviously no guarantees. Stay the course.
smooth_rough
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by smooth_rough »

So other than oil/energy, is any other sector doing well for the rest of 2022?
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

I'm going as frugal as I can to try to weather this storm.
Cutting out all restaurants and bars. I'll be cooking at home, and cooking the least expensive, nutritious things I can. Lots of legumes, potatoes, frozen veggies.
And if friends want to meet up for a drink, we'll do it at my house. My days of $40 bar tabs for one night are over for the foreseeable future, when I can get an $8 bottle of cheap booze that lasts me a week or two.
Putting off that computer purchase I was thinking about. The ones I have will just have to do.
And the library will be providing me with books, audiobooks, cd's and movies.
I need to cut any excess spending anywhere I can.
We're going down, Captain!!!!!!
exodusNH
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by exodusNH »

elderwise wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 2:36 pm just when you thought it was over -

more bad..news..

US to end Russia’s ability to pay international investors - Associated Press. COB 05/25 not sure how this will affect ( russian govt default (bond) )
I think most everyone holding Russian debt expected it to default once the reality of the war was realized. It'll take years to litigate.
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:12 pm I'm going as frugal as I can to try to weather this storm.
Cutting out all restaurants and bars. I'll be cooking at home, and cooking the least expensive, nutritious things I can. Lots of legumes, potatoes, frozen veggies.
And if friends want to meet up for a drink, we'll do it at my house. My days of $40 bar tabs for one night are over for the foreseeable future, when I can get an $8 bottle of cheap booze that lasts me a week or two.
Putting off that computer purchase I was thinking about. The ones I have will just have to do.
And the library will be providing me with books, audiobooks, cd's and movies.
I need to cut any excess spending anywhere I can.
We're going down, Captain!!!!!!
You know the market is doing bad when parking lots are full of Prius.

Don't worry. The price of ramen will go to the moon.

The biggest problem right now is that my FI number went up because my expenses went up because.

As for the library, I put on hold a book to read. Unfortunately, it won't be available for 6 months. Good luck with the library. Audio books pop up much faster. That's my tip.

So the retail hammer and social media hammers have dropped this week. What's next?
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by atdharris »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:12 pm I'm going as frugal as I can to try to weather this storm.
Cutting out all restaurants and bars. I'll be cooking at home, and cooking the least expensive, nutritious things I can. Lots of legumes, potatoes, frozen veggies.
And if friends want to meet up for a drink, we'll do it at my house. My days of $40 bar tabs for one night are over for the foreseeable future, when I can get an $8 bottle of cheap booze that lasts me a week or two.
Putting off that computer purchase I was thinking about. The ones I have will just have to do.
And the library will be providing me with books, audiobooks, cd's and movies.
I need to cut any excess spending anywhere I can.
We're going down, Captain!!!!!!
Heh, I am trying to do the same, but unfortunately, I tend to get dragged out by friends. And my golf habit can be expensive, although I have put off buying a new driver for the foreseeable future and upped my 401k contributions during this time.
gougou
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by gougou »

smooth_rough wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:11 pm So other than oil/energy, is any other sector doing well for the rest of 2022?
I think credit card issuers such as AXP, DFS, COF, SYF will do well. People are charging more on their credit cards due to inflation, so they’ll pay more transaction fees and interests. Interest rate is also higher. Of course this is assuming that **** doesn’t hit the fan/we head into a total collapse.
Last edited by gougou on Tue May 24, 2022 3:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

atdharris wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:23 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:12 pm I'm going as frugal as I can to try to weather this storm.
Cutting out all restaurants and bars. I'll be cooking at home, and cooking the least expensive, nutritious things I can. Lots of legumes, potatoes, frozen veggies.
And if friends want to meet up for a drink, we'll do it at my house. My days of $40 bar tabs for one night are over for the foreseeable future, when I can get an $8 bottle of cheap booze that lasts me a week or two.
Putting off that computer purchase I was thinking about. The ones I have will just have to do.
And the library will be providing me with books, audiobooks, cd's and movies.
I need to cut any excess spending anywhere I can.
We're going down, Captain!!!!!!
Heh, I am trying to do the same, but unfortunately, I tend to get dragged out by friends. And my golf habit can be expensive, although I have put off buying a new driver for the foreseeable future and upped my 401k contributions during this time.
Smart move. If I was employed I'd be trying to max my 401k contributions.
Hola
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Hola »

rockstar wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:49 am
AnalogKid22 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 11:47 am Abercrombie and Fitch down over 30% today.
I shopped at Hot Topic and the Alley.

Retail is bad right now. How are airlines doing?
I went to the airport today and it was crowded, busier than ever. People are still traveling so I don’t think airlines are hurting yet.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:26 pm Smart move. If I was employed I'd be trying to max my 401k contributions.
What's your withdrawal strategy? -20% over 5 months shouldn't break your retirement spending plans. Not sure why you're panicking like there's no tomorrow.
H-Town
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by H-Town »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:06 pm Stocks are doing what stocks do.

From 2000 until now, the real return is 4.33% annually.

For a globally diversified 60% U.S. and 40% international portfolio, the real return is 3.13% annually.

For a globally diversified portfolio with 40% bonds, the real return is 3.00% annually.

These are not bad returns. Certainly not jaw dropping, but if you have a decent savings rate and buy, hold, and rebalance and treat your investments as just that, investments, you will come out fine. The time period I chose is at a high starting point and after a roughly 20% drop. Most 22+ year periods will probably have higher returns, but obviously no guarantees. Stay the course.
This goes against the meme stocks to the moon mentality. If you don't double money in the next trading hours, you do it wrong. Diamond hands and whatnots.

But yeah, bogleheads investing philosophy is to get rich slowly but surely.
Time is the ultimate currency.
strummer6969
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by strummer6969 »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:01 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 2:04 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:29 pm "UK Consumer Confidence Falls to Its Lowest Level Since 1970s"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ince-1970s

"Consumer sentiment in Canada posts biggest drop since pandemic onset amid inflation"
https://www.investmentexecutive.com/new ... inflation/

"Global consumer confidence remains on a downward path"
https://www.ipsos.com/en/global-consume ... x-may-2022

:(
Isn't this exactly what the Fed wants to tame inflation - less consumer confidence and spending? I'll have to dig up the link but Brian Monahan CEO of BOA said today that their average customer account has way more savings as before Covid and less credit card debt.
Record debt: Consumers are racking up credit card debt at record rates
https://www.valleynewslive.com/2022/05/ ... ord-rates/
Up 21% from when? Isn't this spending from pent up demand?
Would be interested in seeing credit card debt now vs pre-covid.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:06 pm Stocks are doing what stocks do.

From 2000 until now, the real return is 4.33% annually.

For a globally diversified 60% U.S. and 40% international portfolio, the real return is 3.13% annually.

For a globally diversified portfolio with 40% bonds, the real return is 3.00% annually.

These are not bad returns. Certainly not jaw dropping, but if you have a decent savings rate and buy, hold, and rebalance and treat your investments as just that, investments, you will come out fine. The time period I chose is at a high starting point and after a roughly 20% drop. Most 22+ year periods will probably have higher returns, but obviously no guarantees. Stay the course.
"Over the past 50 years (1972-2021) the average annualized return on the S&P 500 is 11.17% (nominal) and 7.00% (adjusted for inflation)."
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... citation-4
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:29 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:01 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 2:04 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:29 pm "UK Consumer Confidence Falls to Its Lowest Level Since 1970s"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ince-1970s

"Consumer sentiment in Canada posts biggest drop since pandemic onset amid inflation"
https://www.investmentexecutive.com/new ... inflation/

"Global consumer confidence remains on a downward path"
https://www.ipsos.com/en/global-consume ... x-may-2022

:(
Isn't this exactly what the Fed wants to tame inflation - less consumer confidence and spending? I'll have to dig up the link but Brian Monahan CEO of BOA said today that their average customer account has way more savings as before Covid and less credit card debt.
Record debt: Consumers are racking up credit card debt at record rates
https://www.valleynewslive.com/2022/05/ ... ord-rates/
Up 21% from when? Isn't this spending from pent up demand?
"Consumer debt levels for March 2022 climbed by $52.4 billion, an annual increase of 14%, seasonally adjusted, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday.
Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, surged by 21.4%."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/06/economy/ ... index.html
MindBogler
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MindBogler »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:12 pm I'm going as frugal as I can to try to weather this storm.
Cutting out all restaurants and bars. I'll be cooking at home, and cooking the least expensive, nutritious things I can. Lots of legumes, potatoes, frozen veggies.
And if friends want to meet up for a drink, we'll do it at my house. My days of $40 bar tabs for one night are over for the foreseeable future, when I can get an $8 bottle of cheap booze that lasts me a week or two.
Putting off that computer purchase I was thinking about. The ones I have will just have to do.
And the library will be providing me with books, audiobooks, cd's and movies.
I need to cut any excess spending anywhere I can.
We're going down, Captain!!!!!!
I keep ~1 year of expenses in cash so I can continue to do everything the same until if/when I lose my job. My spouse is in a completely uncorrelated industry (technology vs healthcare) so the odds of us both losing our jobs is low. We keep our non-discretionary expenses below level of the lowest earner. There is opportunity cost to holding so much cash, but as a result, I do not worry about current spending.

As for the market, I believe we have farther to fall and will not recover until inflation is tamed or the Fed blinks. If the Fed does blink, I believe it will cause downstream effects. Best to let this play out and tame inflation, regardless of market values or recessions.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:28 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:26 pm Smart move. If I was employed I'd be trying to max my 401k contributions.
What's your withdrawal strategy? -20% over 5 months shouldn't break your retirement spending plans. Not sure why you're panicking like there's no tomorrow.
Luckily I haven't had to withdraw. I've been living off some cash savings, some money from an inheritance, and a little money from freelance jobs. But my cash levels are getting very low, and I hate to put anything on credit cards. So I guess that's why I'm a bit "panicked".

Not to derail the thread too much, but I had expected to get some more money from the inheritance in the first quarter of this year, but things have gotten bogged down....so my cash-flow is not great. Plus, I'm just a VERY frugal person by nature.
strummer6969
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by strummer6969 »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:32 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:29 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:01 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 2:04 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 1:29 pm "UK Consumer Confidence Falls to Its Lowest Level Since 1970s"
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ince-1970s

"Consumer sentiment in Canada posts biggest drop since pandemic onset amid inflation"
https://www.investmentexecutive.com/new ... inflation/

"Global consumer confidence remains on a downward path"
https://www.ipsos.com/en/global-consume ... x-may-2022

:(
Isn't this exactly what the Fed wants to tame inflation - less consumer confidence and spending? I'll have to dig up the link but Brian Monahan CEO of BOA said today that their average customer account has way more savings as before Covid and less credit card debt.
Record debt: Consumers are racking up credit card debt at record rates
https://www.valleynewslive.com/2022/05/ ... ord-rates/
Up 21% from when? Isn't this spending from pent up demand?
"Consumer debt levels for March 2022 climbed by $52.4 billion, an annual increase of 14%, seasonally adjusted, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday.
Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, surged by 21.4%."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/06/economy/ ... index.html
Ok, well I guess he was technically right. Credit card debt is less than pre-Covid.

"Americans’ credit card debt is $86 billion below the record set in the fourth quarter of 2019 when balances stood at $927 billion. Credit card debt in America is still high by historical standards, however. It is also light years beyond the $478 billion that we saw 21 years ago in the first quarter of 1999."

https://www.lendingtree.com/content/upl ... rt-3-3.png

https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-card ... tatistics/

It would also make sense to compare these figures inflation-adjusted which would give a more accurate figure, since wages have also gone up.
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by rockstar »

strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:49 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:32 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:29 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:01 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 2:04 pm

Isn't this exactly what the Fed wants to tame inflation - less consumer confidence and spending? I'll have to dig up the link but Brian Monahan CEO of BOA said today that their average customer account has way more savings as before Covid and less credit card debt.
Record debt: Consumers are racking up credit card debt at record rates
https://www.valleynewslive.com/2022/05/ ... ord-rates/
Up 21% from when? Isn't this spending from pent up demand?
"Consumer debt levels for March 2022 climbed by $52.4 billion, an annual increase of 14%, seasonally adjusted, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday.
Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, surged by 21.4%."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/06/economy/ ... index.html
Ok, well I guess he was technically right. Credit card debt is less than pre-Covid.

"Americans’ credit card debt is $86 billion below the record set in the fourth quarter of 2019 when balances stood at $927 billion. Credit card debt in America is still high by historical standards, however. It is also light years beyond the $478 billion that we saw 21 years ago in the first quarter of 1999."

https://www.lendingtree.com/content/upl ... rt-3-3.png

https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-card ... tatistics/

It would also make sense to compare these figures inflation-adjusted which would give a more accurate figure, since wages have also gone up.
This is a good overview.

https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc.html
muffins14
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by muffins14 »

strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:49 pm
"Americans’ credit card debt is $86 billion below the record set in the fourth quarter of 2019 when balances stood at $927 billion. Credit card debt in America is still high by historical standards, however. It is also light years beyond the $478 billion that we saw 21 years ago in the first quarter of 1999."

https://www.lendingtree.com/content/upl ... rt-3-3.png

https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-card ... tatistics/

It would also make sense to compare these figures inflation-adjusted which would give a more accurate figure, since wages have also gone up.
Yeah, I think this is marketing gimmick from Lending Club.

Just 2.6% annual inflation would make 478 billion i 1999 the same as 927 - 86. It's obviously in their interest to make it sound like debt is exploding etc
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Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:36 pm Luckily I haven't had to withdraw. I've been living off some cash savings, some money from an inheritance, and a little money from freelance jobs. But my cash levels are getting very low, and I hate to put anything on credit cards. So I guess that's why I'm a bit "panicked".

Not to derail the thread too much, but I had expected to get some more money from the inheritance in the first quarter of this year, but things have gotten bogged down....so my cash-flow is not great. Plus, I'm just a VERY frugal person by nature.
It's on topic since we're talking about the aftermath of stocks in free fall.

As far as drawing, what I recommend is to target some allocation and maintain that. I keep my portfolio in check tightly, checking monthly and nudging.
alfaspider
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by alfaspider »

strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:49 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:32 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:29 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:01 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 2:04 pm

Isn't this exactly what the Fed wants to tame inflation - less consumer confidence and spending? I'll have to dig up the link but Brian Monahan CEO of BOA said today that their average customer account has way more savings as before Covid and less credit card debt.
Record debt: Consumers are racking up credit card debt at record rates
https://www.valleynewslive.com/2022/05/ ... ord-rates/
Up 21% from when? Isn't this spending from pent up demand?
"Consumer debt levels for March 2022 climbed by $52.4 billion, an annual increase of 14%, seasonally adjusted, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday.
Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, surged by 21.4%."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/06/economy/ ... index.html
Ok, well I guess he was technically right. Credit card debt is less than pre-Covid.

"Americans’ credit card debt is $86 billion below the record set in the fourth quarter of 2019 when balances stood at $927 billion. Credit card debt in America is still high by historical standards, however. It is also light years beyond the $478 billion that we saw 21 years ago in the first quarter of 1999."

https://www.lendingtree.com/content/upl ... rt-3-3.png

https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-card ... tatistics/

It would also make sense to compare these figures inflation-adjusted which would give a more accurate figure, since wages have also gone up.
Inflation adjusted, $478 billion in 1999 would be $829 billion in 2022. I wouldn't call that "light years" beyond.
newyorker
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by newyorker »

Not too bad
exodusNH
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by exodusNH »

strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:49 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:32 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:29 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:01 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 2:04 pm

Isn't this exactly what the Fed wants to tame inflation - less consumer confidence and spending? I'll have to dig up the link but Brian Monahan CEO of BOA said today that their average customer account has way more savings as before Covid and less credit card debt.
Record debt: Consumers are racking up credit card debt at record rates
https://www.valleynewslive.com/2022/05/ ... ord-rates/
Up 21% from when? Isn't this spending from pent up demand?
"Consumer debt levels for March 2022 climbed by $52.4 billion, an annual increase of 14%, seasonally adjusted, according to Federal Reserve data released Friday.
Revolving credit, which includes credit cards, surged by 21.4%."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/06/economy/ ... index.html
Ok, well I guess he was technically right. Credit card debt is less than pre-Covid.

"Americans’ credit card debt is $86 billion below the record set in the fourth quarter of 2019 when balances stood at $927 billion. Credit card debt in America is still high by historical standards, however. It is also light years beyond the $478 billion that we saw 21 years ago in the first quarter of 1999."

https://www.lendingtree.com/content/upl ... rt-3-3.png

https://www.lendingtree.com/credit-card ... tatistics/

It would also make sense to compare these figures inflation-adjusted which would give a more accurate figure, since wages have also gone up.
Is that $478B number adjusted for inflation? At an average of 2%-2.5% inflation over 21 years, that would be $725B-$800B. $800B isn't all that far off from where we are now. Many more services support paying by credit card than in 1999.
Firemenot
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Firemenot »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:36 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:28 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:26 pm Smart move. If I was employed I'd be trying to max my 401k contributions.
What's your withdrawal strategy? -20% over 5 months shouldn't break your retirement spending plans. Not sure why you're panicking like there's no tomorrow.
Luckily I haven't had to withdraw. I've been living off some cash savings, some money from an inheritance, and a little money from freelance jobs. But my cash levels are getting very low, and I hate to put anything on credit cards. So I guess that's why I'm a bit "panicked".

Not to derail the thread too much, but I had expected to get some more money from the inheritance in the first quarter of this year, but things have gotten bogged down....so my cash-flow is not great. Plus, I'm just a VERY frugal person by nature.
In an earlier post today you said the stock market is going down from here. I don’t know your situation, but I’m inferring you have lots of equity savings. If so, why not sell some? We’re only down about 20% from all-time highs — and you seem to think it’s going to fall a lot from here.
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

Firemenot wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 6:20 pm In an earlier post today you said the stock market is going down from here. I don’t know your situation, but I’m inferring you have lots of equity savings. If so, why not sell some? We’re only down about 20% from all-time highs — and you seem to think it’s going to fall a lot from here.
Correct. Peskypesky should sell equities to maintain whatever allocation they aim to maintain. Nudging works very well here in my opinion.
fatcoffeedrinker
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by fatcoffeedrinker »

Firemenot wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:57 am
atdharris wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:50 am
homebuyer6426 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:43 am Perhaps today we will officially be in the bear market, unlike Friday's tease.
Yes. I am growing tired of these fake bounces each time the S&P approaches -20%. Just get us to the bear market already
So much in this thread about “pump”, “fake”, “bots” and the like — as if nefarious forces are at work. Market is just volatile right now as people trying to get more clarity on what the future holds for earnings.
Agreed. I thought I was over on Reddit.
Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Keenobserver »

Funny how everyone suddenly " knew" this was going to happen. The reasons for the drop being so obvious suddenly. No one knows nothin.. we can end with a positive 2022 or go down a lot or little more or stay the same. No one knows.
MindBogler
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by MindBogler »

Keenobserver wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:52 pm Funny how everyone suddenly " knew" this was going to happen. The reasons for the drop being so obvious suddenly. No one knows nothin.. we can end with a positive 2022 or go down a lot or little more or stay the same. No one knows.
On the contrary, there have been numerous individuals here and elsewhere sounding the alarm for awhile. The reasons were obvious and multitude but the timing has always been problematic. The idea that "no one knows nothin" is really nothing more than a tired dogmatic trope tossed around this forum. Yes, buy and hold works perfectly fine but to presume that everyone in the world is ignorant is a failure of imagination.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

Firemenot wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 6:20 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:36 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:28 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:26 pm Smart move. If I was employed I'd be trying to max my 401k contributions.
What's your withdrawal strategy? -20% over 5 months shouldn't break your retirement spending plans. Not sure why you're panicking like there's no tomorrow.
Luckily I haven't had to withdraw. I've been living off some cash savings, some money from an inheritance, and a little money from freelance jobs. But my cash levels are getting very low, and I hate to put anything on credit cards. So I guess that's why I'm a bit "panicked".

Not to derail the thread too much, but I had expected to get some more money from the inheritance in the first quarter of this year, but things have gotten bogged down....so my cash-flow is not great. Plus, I'm just a VERY frugal person by nature.
In an earlier post today you said the stock market is going down from here. I don’t know your situation, but I’m inferring you have lots of equity savings. If so, why not sell some? We’re only down about 20% from all-time highs — and you seem to think it’s going to fall a lot from here.
I try to never sell in the red.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Marseille07 »

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Last edited by Marseille07 on Tue May 24, 2022 10:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by peskypesky »

MindBogler wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:00 pm
Keenobserver wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:52 pm Funny how everyone suddenly " knew" this was going to happen. The reasons for the drop being so obvious suddenly. No one knows nothin.. we can end with a positive 2022 or go down a lot or little more or stay the same. No one knows.
On the contrary, there have been numerous individuals here and elsewhere sounding the alarm for awhile. The reasons were obvious and multitude but the timing has always been problematic. The idea that "no one knows nothin" is really nothing more than a tired dogmatic trope tossed around this forum. Yes, buy and hold works perfectly fine but to presume that everyone in the world is ignorant is a failure of imagination.
Agreed.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by TheTimeLord »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:05 pm
Firemenot wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 6:20 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:36 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:28 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:26 pm Smart move. If I was employed I'd be trying to max my 401k contributions.
What's your withdrawal strategy? -20% over 5 months shouldn't break your retirement spending plans. Not sure why you're panicking like there's no tomorrow.
Luckily I haven't had to withdraw. I've been living off some cash savings, some money from an inheritance, and a little money from freelance jobs. But my cash levels are getting very low, and I hate to put anything on credit cards. So I guess that's why I'm a bit "panicked".

Not to derail the thread too much, but I had expected to get some more money from the inheritance in the first quarter of this year, but things have gotten bogged down....so my cash-flow is not great. Plus, I'm just a VERY frugal person by nature.
In an earlier post today you said the stock market is going down from here. I don’t know your situation, but I’m inferring you have lots of equity savings. If so, why not sell some? We’re only down about 20% from all-time highs — and you seem to think it’s going to fall a lot from here.
I try to never sell in the red.
What determines being in the red, are you looking at the purchase price or the ATH? Because if you are looking at the ATH aren't they always in the red if not at an ATH?
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marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by marcopolo »

MindBogler wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:00 pm
Keenobserver wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 8:52 pm Funny how everyone suddenly " knew" this was going to happen. The reasons for the drop being so obvious suddenly. No one knows nothin.. we can end with a positive 2022 or go down a lot or little more or stay the same. No one knows.
On the contrary, there have been numerous individuals here and elsewhere sounding the alarm for awhile. The reasons were obvious and multitude but the timing has always been problematic. The idea that "no one knows nothin" is really nothing more than a tired dogmatic trope tossed around this forum. Yes, buy and hold works perfectly fine but to presume that everyone in the world is ignorant is a failure of imagination.
The timing is pretty important.

There have been people screaming about this market being over valued and due for a crash since 2013. The fact that they might be right now (still a long ways from a big crash, this is pretty routine so far), hardly supports the idea that it was "obvious".
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
strummer6969
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by strummer6969 »

peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 10:05 pm
Firemenot wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 6:20 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:36 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:28 pm
peskypesky wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:26 pm Smart move. If I was employed I'd be trying to max my 401k contributions.
What's your withdrawal strategy? -20% over 5 months shouldn't break your retirement spending plans. Not sure why you're panicking like there's no tomorrow.
Luckily I haven't had to withdraw. I've been living off some cash savings, some money from an inheritance, and a little money from freelance jobs. But my cash levels are getting very low, and I hate to put anything on credit cards. So I guess that's why I'm a bit "panicked".

Not to derail the thread too much, but I had expected to get some more money from the inheritance in the first quarter of this year, but things have gotten bogged down....so my cash-flow is not great. Plus, I'm just a VERY frugal person by nature.
In an earlier post today you said the stock market is going down from here. I don’t know your situation, but I’m inferring you have lots of equity savings. If so, why not sell some? We’re only down about 20% from all-time highs — and you seem to think it’s going to fall a lot from here.
I try to never sell in the red.
If you're in the red and have 100% conviction of more red, the only logical action to take is to sell and cut your losses.

https://www.britannica.com/topic/sunk-cost
Flyer24
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Flyer24 »

Stay on-topic about the stock market and keep it respectful. An off-topic exchange was deleted.
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Post by Beensabu »

smooth_rough wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 3:11 pm So other than oil/energy, is any other sector doing well for the rest of 2022?
Utilities sure seem to have been the little engine that could for some time (decades) now. I'd imagine that'll continue until whenever they start to go state-owned. Of course, that's just my imagination.
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