BABA and Tencent

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manuvns
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by manuvns »

may be a good idea to sell puts since it is at lows .lower risk than buying long .
Thanks!
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David Jay
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by David Jay »

Bloomberg has an in-depth piece on the China business environment here: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ina-crisis

The takeaway quote: “Investors who have ignored this anticapitalist turn in China have only themselves to blame if they have lost money.”
It's not an engineering problem - Hersh Shefrin | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius
manuvns
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by manuvns »

carminered2019 wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:00 am yep, I bought 30K of BABA yesterday for $150 per share and planning to keep it for minimum 5 years.
BABA is trading at 127$ range you think it's the black friday / cyber monday deal for this year?
Thanks!
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David Jay
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by David Jay »

manuvns wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:33 pmBABA is trading at 127$ range you think it's the black friday / cyber monday deal for this year?
Quarterly Report showed an 87% drop in earnings.

Did you read the entire thread? Are you prepared to have the CCP declare the ADR structure was always illegal as the Bloomberg article suggests is possible?
It's not an engineering problem - Hersh Shefrin | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius
000
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by 000 »

David Jay wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:46 pm Quarterly Report showed an 87% drop in earnings.

Did you read the entire thread? Are you prepared to have the CCP declare the ADR structure was always illegal as the Bloomberg article suggests is possible?
Talk about risky business. :shock:
manuvns
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by manuvns »

David Jay wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:46 pm
manuvns wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:33 pmBABA is trading at 127$ range you think it's the black friday / cyber monday deal for this year?
Quarterly Report showed an 87% drop in earnings.

Did you read the entire thread? Are you prepared to have the CCP declare the ADR structure was always illegal as the Bloomberg article suggests is possible?
i am willing to risk 5% of my portfoilio on BABA when it's cheap and 500B wealth has been lost
Thanks!
worthit
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by worthit »

I saw my BABA go from $300 last year to now $127 :oops: I am going to be selling this after the new year.
manuvns
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by manuvns »

worthit wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:56 am I saw my BABA go from $300 last year to now $127 :oops: I am going to be selling this after the new year.
prices are lower due to people trying to harvest losses .
Thanks!
worthit
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by worthit »

manuvns wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 9:32 am
worthit wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:56 am I saw my BABA go from $300 last year to now $127 :oops: I am going to be selling this after the new year.
prices are lower due to people trying to harvest losses .
Are you sure about that? Is that the only reason or are there other factors (sudden disappearance of the Founder, mysterious regulations in Mainland China etc. that are causing this? Overall, I am not convinced that this is going to go up and the business conditions aren't favoring an even level playing field. A tad bit risky for me.
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David Jay
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by David Jay »

manuvns wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 8:54 am
David Jay wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:46 pm
manuvns wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 6:33 pmBABA is trading at 127$ range you think it's the black friday / cyber monday deal for this year?
Quarterly Report showed an 87% drop in earnings.

Did you read the entire thread? Are you prepared to have the CCP declare the ADR structure was always illegal as the Bloomberg article suggests is possible?
i am willing to risk 5% of my portfoilio on BABA when it's cheap and 500B wealth has been lost
enjoy…
It's not an engineering problem - Hersh Shefrin | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius
rosalee
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by rosalee »

Now have read that DiDi is leaving town. At least delisting from the NYSE, which may portend other Chinese ADRs also fleeing. DiDi is going to HK, where it will be welcomed, I'm sure.

I'm totally out of China now but did have a good run with Bidu and Baba. Gotta wonder about Munger who took a big stake in Baba last month. Does he have an inside track, or pipeline to the 'big panda', which will save his butt?
visualguy
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by visualguy »

rosalee wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 6:25 am Now have read that DiDi is leaving town. At least delisting from the NYSE, which may portend other Chinese ADRs also fleeing. DiDi is going to HK, where it will be welcomed, I'm sure.

I'm totally out of China now but did have a good run with Bidu and Baba. Gotta wonder about Munger who took a big stake in Baba last month. Does he have an inside track, or pipeline to the 'big panda', which will save his butt?
Congratulations on getting out in time. It's a scary situation now with double whammy major risk for these stocks from both sides - China and the US. A real shame because this was one part of ex-US that really had promise, but unfortunately also too much baggage.
quickt
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by quickt »

If Baba and tencent delist in USA, what will happen to index funds that have these companies? Will they change their composition of stock?
nalor511
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by nalor511 »

quickt wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 2:33 pm If Baba and tencent delist in USA, what will happen to index funds that have these companies? Will they change their composition of stock?
The news articles say you can swap (Didi) for shares on the new (Asia) exchange, wouldn't they just do that swap?
visualguy
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by visualguy »

quickt wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 2:33 pm If Baba and tencent delist in USA, what will happen to index funds that have these companies? Will they change their composition of stock?
Either that or own the shares wherever they end up trading, such as the HK exchange or OTC. Some funds limit themselves to ADRs, so they'll change composition, or maybe own OTC shares at least for a while. If there's a mass delisting, it will be even scarier.
Tanelorn
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by Tanelorn »

quickt wrote: Fri Dec 03, 2021 2:33 pm If Baba and tencent delist in USA, what will happen to index funds that have these companies? Will they change their composition of stock?
Many of them might sell those holdings if their mandate or business setup doesn’t allow for foreign Chinese holdings. Plus it’s possible that China will put restrictions on ownership of the Hong Kong listed shares which may force foreigners to sell anyway, returning both the company’s value and corporate control to China.

DIDI was down 25% today on the delisting news, which still isn’t for sure or finalized. That tells you lots of existing shareholders don’t want this to happen and view it as strongly negative for the price they’re willing to pay.

US ADRs of large Chinese companies, the kind of businesses the government cares about, are uninvestable in my opinion.
dave415
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by dave415 »

Can someone help me understand what will happen if chinese stocks like BABA are delisted. I unfortunately hold individual china stocks like BABA and not sure what to do. Will I lose practically everything if they delist?
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JoMoney
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by JoMoney »

dave415 wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:50 am Can someone help me understand what will happen if chinese stocks like BABA are delisted. I unfortunately hold individual china stocks like BABA and not sure what to do. Will I lose practically everything if they delist?
It depends how/why they get delisted and other factors that surround it. At a very basic/generic level, being delisted just means you can't buy/sell it on whatever stock exchange it was previously listed on. You still own the shares, or whatever it is they represent. If you want to sell them you'll have a much harder time, but if they have value, there is likely someone that would be willing to buy them (at a steep enough discount) and you might have to look over-seas for someone to broker or assist with it, which might create lots of other unusual situations to navigate with foreign exchange and tax situations.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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David Jay
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by David Jay »

dave415 wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:50 am Can someone help me understand what will happen if chinese stocks like BABA are delisted. I unfortunately hold individual china stocks like BABA and not sure what to do. Will I lose practically everything if they delist?
While I think it’s unlikely, if China were to declare that the VIE structure used to list BABA was illegal, the shares would become worthless as there are no underlying assets behind the VIE.
It's not an engineering problem - Hersh Shefrin | To get the "risk premium", you really do have to take the risk - nisiprius
visualguy
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by visualguy »

David Jay wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 12:59 pm
dave415 wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 9:50 am Can someone help me understand what will happen if chinese stocks like BABA are delisted. I unfortunately hold individual china stocks like BABA and not sure what to do. Will I lose practically everything if they delist?
While I think it’s unlikely, if China were to declare that the VIE structure used to list BABA was illegal, the shares would become worthless as there are no underlying assets behind the VIE.
The issue is delisting, and the underlying driver like you said isn't likely to be the VIE structure being declared illegal.

At this point, something has to give for delisting not to happen. What's forcing delisting is SEC audit requirements. The rules for this were just finalized.

Without agreement from the Chinese government and the companies involved, delisting seems inevitable. Even if there was compliance, there's the question of which companies would be allowed to comply and would agree to comply, and whether those audit reports would pass muster - maybe they would for some companies, but not others.

It's a huge mess, and truly scary. I read that over a trillion dollars in value of US-traded Chinese stocks has already been wiped out since February.
Freefun
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by Freefun »

I purchased some BABA a while back and then lost money. So I obviously sold it. If you want an almost perfect way to make a lot of money just watch all my stock trades and do the exact opposite. It’s called the George Costanza stock trading technique.
Remember when you wanted what you currently have?
Tanelorn
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by Tanelorn »

visualguy wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 2:43 pm It's a huge mess, and truly scary. I read that over a trillion dollars in value of US-traded Chinese stocks has already been wiped out since February.
China walked back the hard stance they had after seeing big and growing stock market losses. I still see DIDI and many others moving to Hong Kong to the determinant of US investors in the meanwhile.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ock-plunge
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Swiss Bee
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by Swiss Bee »

Looks cheap now :D :D
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Raymond
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by Raymond »

Swiss Bee wrote: Sun Dec 26, 2021 10:57 am Looks cheap now :D :D
So go buy some if you feel lucky.

You can have my share :D
"Ritter, Tod und Teufel"
richard.h.gao
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by richard.h.gao »

Tanelorn wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 5:32 am DIDI was down 25% today on the delisting news, which still isn’t for sure or finalized.
DIDI dropped another 44% today. 😱
betablocker
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by betablocker »

Swiss Bee wrote: Thu Jul 08, 2021 6:13 am Any views on BABA and Tencent? I know that stock picking is bad :twisted: but I really want some opinions on loading them up for the long term? :moneybag :moneybag :dollar
I sold all mine. I think we are in the midst of a big geopolitical shift and things can go to zero again like they did pre Cold War. Russia is a good recent example. Clearly China is going to try to lower its dependency on US financial markets and after watching Russia they’ll accelerate that process. That dependency is a weapon. So I think the conflict between China and the US will mostly determine your outcome and not Baba or TenCent. That seems like a difficult situation to handicap. Maybe you can hedge by buying Lockheed Martin and US defense stocks. Only slightly kidding.
Tanelorn
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by Tanelorn »

Delisting - more info and fears for Chinese ADRs.

https://www.asiamarkets.com/chinese-adr ... intensify/
SEC publicly named five U.S.-listed Chinese ADR’s that could be in breach of the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act.

The five companies identified by the SEC are:

BeiGene Limited (NASDAQ: BGNE)
Yum China Holdings Limited (NYSE: YUMC)
Zai Lab Limited (NASDAQ: ZLAB)
ACM Research (NASDAQ: ACMR)
HUTCHMED (China) Limited (NASDAQ: HCM)

...KraneShares added it expects all Chinese ADRs will be found non-compliant unless a resolution is reached between U.S. and Chinese regulators.
richard.h.gao
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by richard.h.gao »

JPMorgan new price targets:

Tencent (0700) $570 → $265
Ali(9988) $175 → $63
Meituan(3690) $295 → $90
JD.com (9618) $380 → $135
NetEase(9999) $195 → $93
Baidu(9888) $235 → $85
Tencent Music (TME) US$6 → US$3.5
Weibo (WB) US$32 → US$24
Kingsoft Cloud (KC) US$8 → US$3.5
yobery
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by yobery »

richard.h.gao wrote: Tue Mar 15, 2022 8:14 pm JPMorgan new price targets:

Tencent (0700) $570 → $265
Ali(9988) $175 → $63
Meituan(3690) $295 → $90
JD.com (9618) $380 → $135
NetEase(9999) $195 → $93
Baidu(9888) $235 → $85
Tencent Music (TME) US$6 → US$3.5
Weibo (WB) US$32 → US$24
Kingsoft Cloud (KC) US$8 → US$3.5
Ouuuuuuch
tesuzuki2002
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by tesuzuki2002 »

yes... the best move was to short them... after their run up... Chinese companies have always been a blackbox of financial troubles.... the delisting was only a matter of time. There are some investment methods you have to play on the downside.
000
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by 000 »

MCHI is now under its March 2020 low :shock:
Nysoz
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by Nysoz »

China vowed to ensure market stability. Everything is moving up sharply premarket. If these were shorted, there could be a short squeeze with this radical move up. It'll be fun to watch this from the sidelines.

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/hong-kong-sto ... wiS7LsFQWX
DRReaders
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by DRReaders »

The dynamic of Chinese stocks is very interesting to watch. The moment there are hints of sanctions or restrictions by the Chinese government, stocks crash down. Today, the government pledges to support its stock market and ease restrictions and the market there jumps. Already seeing noise and articles about how "of course BABA (and other Chinese stocks) were oversold and undervalued, hence the jump today was expected". Funny how the same articles about BABA were written almost daily from its drop from $300. Goes to show, no one know what will happen in the stock market, not even "regional analysts" in their region of specialty.
richard.h.gao
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by richard.h.gao »

richard.h.gao wrote: Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:10 pm
Tanelorn wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 5:32 am DIDI was down 25% today on the delisting news, which still isn’t for sure or finalized.
DIDI dropped another 44% today. 😱
DIDI up 44% today. 🤯
yobery
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by yobery »

Talk about whipsaw
bgf
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by bgf »

It's enough to make you think that picking stocks is hard
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"
richard.h.gao
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by richard.h.gao »

richard.h.gao wrote: Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:04 am
richard.h.gao wrote: Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:10 pm
Tanelorn wrote: Sat Dec 04, 2021 5:32 am DIDI was down 25% today on the delisting news, which still isn’t for sure or finalized.
DIDI dropped another 44% today. 😱
DIDI up 44% today. 🤯
DIDI up another 54% today. 🤑
Tanelorn
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by Tanelorn »

DIDI is down another 50% in the last couple months, and plans to end it’s US listing in the coming weeks. There is no plan to relist shares on another exchange at this point.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ywang/2022 ... 1ed78e0cba

If you don’t want to be stuck as a Chinese private equity holder, you should probably sell this week.
z3r0c00l
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by z3r0c00l »

carminered2019 wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:00 am yep, I bought 30K of BABA yesterday for $150 per share and planning to keep it for minimum 5 years.
$150 a share seemed like a bargain since it was half of the all time high. Surely the stock would hit $300 again some day? But now we are down to $90. What a painful investing process this must be. You doubled-down and lost, do you now triple-down at 90? Or do you bail on a sinking ship? There are certain countries that pose an unacceptable political risk and right now, China is one of them.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
gougou
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by gougou »

I think it’s important to have some criteria about what stock is considered cheap and how cheap a stock is. And my criteria is shareholder yield.

I looked up BABA’s Q4 2021 financials and see that the Weighted Average Diluted Shares Outstanding has reduced from 2752M to 2714M over a year. BABA does not pay a dividend so its shareholder yield is a mere 1.38%. That’s even lower than many US large tech companies such as GOOG, FB or AAPL. TECHY has negative shareholder yield right now because it’s still issuing more shares every quarter.

So the question comes, if they are so cheap, why are they not buying back their stocks like crazy? Whatever the reason is, it’s probably not good news for shareholders.

So I have invested in Bank of China HK.3988 which pays a 9% dividend with no shareholder dilution. Some other Chinese stocks that I am interested in are VIPS ($5.6B company with a $1B buyback ongoing), HK.6198 (Qingdao Port) which pays an 8% dividend with no dilution, etc.

Of course such investing style is not suitable for everybody, and you may very well make a lot of money buying BABA or TECHY right now. It’s just a simple rule to weed out companies that are not attractive enough to me.
The sillier the market’s behavior, the greater the opportunity for the business like investor.
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ray.james
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by ray.james »

I am taking the route of investing in KWEB -KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF. Been buying shares anytime it goes under 25. It is now 5% of my allocation and I am ok with up to 10%.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
Tanelorn
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by Tanelorn »

Tanelorn wrote: Tue May 24, 2022 6:16 am If you don’t want to be stuck as a Chinese private equity holder, you should probably sell this week.
Today, 6/10, is the last day DIDI will trade on the US exchange.
Northern Flicker
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by Northern Flicker »

So this thread started in July 2021 to make the case that Alibaba and Tencent were serious bargains.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100
Tanelorn
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Re: BABA and Tencent

Post by Tanelorn »

Five more major China stocks are delisting from NYSE to avoid audits.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ngton.html
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